Feb
16
Open Thread: 2/16 Camp Notes
By
(AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
The latest from Tampa…
- CC Sabathia threw off a mound for the first time since having a bone spur removed from his left elbow in October. “I immediately felt good and felt comfortable after the first couple of pitches,” he said. Sabathia threw 29 pitches — all fastballs and changeups — and will throw against on Tuesday. He will not make a start the first time through the rotation once Grapefruit league games begin next weekend, however. [Wally Matthews & Jack Curry]
- Mariano Rivera also threw roughly 30 pitches in the bullpen. His surgically repaired right knee feels fine while pitching, though he still needs to test it in fielding drills. [Chad Jennings & Curry]
- Bryan Hoch has the rest of the day’s bullpen and batting practice assignments. David Phelps faced hitters again while Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, Hiroki Kuroda, David Robertson, David Aardsma, and Clay Rapada joined Sabathia and Rivera as projected big leaguers to throw bullpens.
- Just as a reminder, position players are due to report on Sunday. They’ll all take their physicals tomorrow before the team has their first full squad workout on Monday. The first exhibition game will be played one week from today.
Here is your open thread for the evening. The Devils and Islanders are playing (each other!) while there are various NBA All-Star festivities taking place. Talk about that stuff or anything else here. Go nuts.
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Countdown to Spring Training
Just 2 months and 6 days 'til pitchers and catchers report!
What are the chances Kyle Lohse signs before the first Spring Training game?
Doesn’t seem very high, but I no longer ever bet against Scott Boras. I think his targeting the Angels is the way to go- they could use him.
I could see that. I also never bet against Boras. Dude got a 9 year deal for Fielder on a team that already had a first baseman.
That said, he’s come up short before too. Edwin Jackson had to sign a one year deal last year. So we’ll see about Lohse. The Angels could use him though, for sure.
And that teams first baseman was arguably the best in the game
I understand that point of view, since it’s so popular to repeat now, but it’s not exactly that clear cut.
They had a guy who would stand at 1B, but no one to stand at 3B and no DH. The guy who would stand at 1B had experience standing at 3B, so it’s not even close to how people try to characterize it as Boras bluffing the Tigers into something they didn’t even expect.
I don’t see why this is treated so strangely. Even just this year, the Indians seem to have a full OF, but they can easily move one to 1B and sign another.
Much like post-2008 offseason, Yankees have a 1B all lined up, but then a much better player at that time shows up and the expected 1B can adjust to another position that could be improved, then it’s all systems go for making the move.
Well, they didn’t have a DH for 2012, but they signed Fielder knowing that V-Mart was coming back. As far as Boras “bluffing” anybody, I never said that. I recall the idea of Cabrera moving back to 3B being regarded pretty skeptically though.
As far as the Yankees, I’m pretty sure Swisher was an OF that could play 1B, not a 1B that could play OF. I don’t view those situations as the same.
Seems I skipped out on last night’s thread a little too early. At least some people around here aren’t assclowns.
Thanks for being there, Havok.
U Mad Bro? Hit a little too close to home or what?
Hey minimum wage might be $9/hr soon. Just don’t forget to put out the “Wet Floor” sign when doing your new job. Good Luck.
No, I’m not mad. You don’t know a fucking thing about me, but you choose to comment about my situation. That makes you an assclown.
“U Mad Bro” one of the many phrases used in a non-ironic sense that will make me realize how much of a tool you are. Congrats, you sir are a tool.
Keep trolling, moron. A lot of us know better than to yell angrily at you and make you feel like you didn’t waste your life getting off from pictures of Rick Astley and spend all your leisure time looking at 2chan.
P.S. You can still sue (and win) a case where you slip and fall regardless of whether a wet floor sign is present. Then again it’d be ridiculous to expect you to know that.
P.S.S. Since you probably can’t understand what I’ve said, here’s the simple version. You failed. Now move along.
Well said.
Troll harder, douche nozzle. You failed about as well blind squirrel looking for a nut.
I missed…..yeah.
Never mind the fact that washing floors is honorable work and shouldn’t be shit upon.
Any work that someone does with the intent of doing it well is honorable work.
MLB network has a round table talk with Costas, Larussa, Sherman, and some other guys. Sherman is so freakinh annoying. Looks like Larussa wants to smack him.
Everyone has seen this, right?
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
Awfully high on the Yanks but certainly wouldn’t surprise me if that’s the final standings (but with different W-L records)
Have a hard time believing only one team will win 90 games.
Seems to ignore an excellent or terrible run for any team, noone with 100+ losses or wins, can salut see 4 teams falling into that category this uear
It’s not ignoring it… those “runs” are generally 2-3 sigma events which aren’t necessarily predictable (or projectable)
They could probably include the sigma (or 3 sigma) #’s on each team which would give you a clue about what teams could go on a good or bad run to get to 90+ wins or losses… but you wouldn’t project a 3 sigma event as the outcome. It’s projecting the most likely outcome for each individual team. Obviously with 30 such projections, you are bound to have a few teams which will be outliers.
5-8 teams win at least ninety games every year. That wouldn’t seem to warrant 90 wins being in the tail.
It’s probably not really in the “tail” in all likelihood.
I don’t have access to their sim data, but if I had to guess the average outcome they report probably occurs ~30% of the time. People are confusing the average outcome (like say 88 wins for the Yankees) with it being THE likely outcome. Without the sigmas, it’s hard to do anything but guess, but I would guess that any team that has an average outcome over 82+ wins has at least a small chance at 90 wins. Teams at an average of 85+ wins probably have a decent chance at being over 90wins.
I imagine if you start adding up “fractional” teams you would start getting toward that 5-8 number each year. For example the Tigers at 90 wins probably have close to a 50/50 chance of winning 90 games or more – so thats 0.5 teams, the Yankees at 88wins might be in the 30% range so that’s 0.3 teams, etc…. The issue is you can’t predict which individual team will have that variance.
You also have compounding issues – successful teams tend to acquire players midseasons. Less successful teams will deal talent or play prospects with an eye on the future; that will shift teams toward those tails as well. I think BP does take a look at minor league depth, but it’s hard to devise a projection system for trades.
Doesn’t seem likely, does it?
Being drunk and watching The Empire Strikes Back. Is there a better way to spend a Saturday night/ Sunday morning alone? It is nearly 2am here in the UK.
Umm… Sleeping after some hearty laughs at slapstick gags?
I guess working for another 6 1/2 hours is probably not on anybody’s list of best things to do tonight, huh?
Well not if you’re a porno director (or actor, maybe)
My condolences to you working the graveyard shift so often. Look on the bright side, at least you don’t work at a graveyard. (I hope?)
No I don’t, but some of my ‘clients’ end up there.
(sorry, TMI maybe…)
It’s sort of a modified graveyard shift too (I’m sort of a west coaster), so it’s not quite all night. We also work 4 10′s, so I can’t complain about 3 day weekends every week either. I’ve always been a night person so it’s really not a big deal to me. MUCH better than getting up at 4 AM for work, which is my only other option at this point.
Yeah it’s much easier to work late nights than to get up at 4 in the morning. I’ve stayed up and watched archived games and I’ve also got up at like 3 AM to watch Olympic baseball (yes, that long ago). Not quite as the same as working but getting up early vs staying up late, other than the fact that I’m damn afraid of driving in the middle of the night I’d pick staying up late without a regret.
Then again I’ve got to bed at 4 for legit reasons before (road trips, not worth staying in a motel for just sleeping, for both monetary and sanitary reasons), but never got up at 4, period.
or, you could be dead sober here in NY, watching Ben-Hur…goddam, this movie must be 5 hrs long!
Reasons against instant replay according to La Russa:
1. Managers won’t be able to argue.
2. Because we don’t have the rules in place yet(?)
3. Managers don’t want to lose the “human element.”
4. Because…um..like I said there isn’t a perfect system yet?
5. Lets…um make up some bullshit reasons?
Is this on MLBN? If so, then that’s why it’s so hard to understand.
Catch him about 2 hours after the show when he’s had time to hit the bar and I’m sure he’ll be much more coherent then.
Yanks @ 15-1 Vegas odds WS ’13. I grabbed that. WTF?
I’d take that if I was a betting man. Sure.
Bring it on. Beating the odds will be fun.
The MLBN’s Top 10 Right Now lists are all well and good, and for the most part they are pretty good and, as they should, elicit some debate.
But, please stop the Top 10 Right Now Managers list. It’s only one Manager, but if any other sane person would have Dusty Baker rated as the 3rd best Manager in baseball, then I’d like to meet him…
Boone Logan for Drew Stubbs? Who hangs up first?
Hmmm. I dare say Yankees? That sounds about right to me, though.
I feel like Suggs is well on his way to being overrated or underrated.
SHIT! AUTOCORRECT!!!
Stubbs… Suggs is well past overrated…
I’d take it. We have enough LOOGYs or semi-LOOGYs in the high minors/40-man roster to give up on a guy we wont re-sign next year anyway.
Given the current roster construction, I’d love that deal as a Yankee fan.
Not familiar enough with the Indians bullpen personnel to make a statement as to how they’d feel getting a barely more than LOOGY pitcher for a clear 4th OFer, especially since that LOOGY is already in concern territory with his current team after a high appearance workload last year.
What the hell are you doing up? Didnt you work graveyard last night?? Go to sleep!!! LOL. By the way…I had to get up at 4:30am to go to work this morning…here ’til 6pm. I’d love to have your shift!
I work a relatively normal shift, although I do get up at 5:30AM Mon – Fri to ensure I’m at my desk by 7AM. And that leads to me waking up Saturday and Sunday at … 5:30AM without the alarm clock (try to stay in bed till 6:30 or so).
Shit…sign me up for a desk. I deal with the dregs of society everyday. I’m welcome a cubicle any day now.
I’d*
We all have our challenges in our jobs. Some are worse than others. Most jobs (certainly not all) look better from the outside looking in.
Heh, it was my Friday night, so I stay up for a bit after work. Gotta wind down and maybe enjoy an adult beverage or two, don’t I?
I would do that, not sure the Indians would b/c Logan only comes with one year of control.
But on the other hand, Stubbs seems like a prime non tender candidate after this season, so maybe you view him as a 1 year of control as well.
Seems like a fair trade.
Indians hang up first. And quickly.
Anyone notice that Carlos Rivero with the Nationals is out of options. He hasnt ever played in a MLB game. Is he a non-prospect or what? He played SS, 3B, 1B last year for AAA. Could be a good fit for a utility role, or at least competition for one. Thoughts?