2013 Draft: Draft order finally set

Open Thread: 3/29 Camp Notes
Exhibition Game Thread: West Point

Now that Kyle Lohse has finally signed a contract, the 2013 draft order is officially set. The Competitive Balance Lottery Round A and B picks can still be traded between now and the draft, but that won’t affect the Yankees unless they somehow acquire one of those picks. I’m betting against that happening.

The Yankees own three of the top 33 picks thanks to the free agent defections of Nick Swisher and Rafael Soriano, the first time they’ve held three of the top 33 picks since 1978 (!), when they had three of the top 26 picks. They did have three of the top 42 picks in both 2001 and 2004, however. Add in their second rounder, and the Yankees will own four of the top 66 picks this year. Based on last year’s slot values, the Yankees are looking at a $7.3M or so draft pool for the first ten rounds. Those top three picks are each worth $1.5M+.

That draft pool number figures to change depending on what the slot values are this summer, but either way the Yankees are going to have a ton of money to spend on the draft this summer. They really need to knock it out of the park with those high selections, grabbing talent and not just good makeup. Gary Sanchez, Slade Heathcott, and Mason Williams all had some kind of makeup concern in the past and now they’re arguably the three best prospects in the system. Talent reigns supreme and the Yankees have a chance to add a lot of this summer.

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Open Thread: 3/29 Camp Notes
Exhibition Game Thread: West Point
  • Laz

    I still can’t get over how a team like Detroit gets an extra competitive balance pick, that can essentially be a late 1st round pick some years. They are not a small market team.

  • http://gotfisheries.blogspot.com Dropped Third

    If they have a good draft this year with those high picks, and all the low level prospects continue to develop, in 2 years their system could easily be top 5 in the league.

  • trr

    Agree -If a SS playing Attila The Hun is there sign him! Talent trumps everything

  • jjyank

    We’ve said it plenty of times already, but this draft is a pretty big deal. If the Yanks stick to the budget, they’re gonna need a steady flow of MLB caliber talent from the farm system to remain competitive (at least as long as guys like A-Rod and a declining Tex are on the roster).

    I know prospects are an unknown, and draft picks are even more so, but I’m excited to see what the farm system looks like with several more high end selections and (hopefully) productive years from the existing prospects. I’d imagine the Yanks could jump comfortably into a top 10 system if a few things break right.

  • CONservative governMENt

    How did I completely miss the competitve balance draft lottery?

    Wonder if the Yankees will go signability early and use the draft pool for later splurges. Hensley fell into their lap, which was nice. Hopefully they have an effective plan that doesn’t enrage the prospect nerd crowd.

  • Hoss

    …Aaand with theee twenty-seventh pick, theee New York Yankeees seeelect… Celerino Sanchez, Junior…

  • Dicka24

    Gawd, please Yankees, no Cito Culver, Jeremy Bleich picks this time. Take the highest rated players, and not binky’s who no one has rated anywhere near that draft slot.

    • Hoss

      What was wrong with Gerrit Cole, Andrew Brackman, Dante Bichette, Jr.? Don’t you think these guys know what they’re doing?

      • Dicka24

        Since Cole never signed, Brackman was released, and Bichette regressed, I’d say I sense a hint of sarcasm. 80)

      • jjyank

        One of these things is not like the others. DBJ is the reach pick there, not the other guys.

        Cole deciding to go to college doesn’t mean it was a bad pick. Considering his talent and how high he ended up getting drafted later, the Yankees absolutely were going for pure talent. And we all knew Brackman would be a project, but that was again a pure talent, lottery ticket type pick. You’re not going to get the combination of elite talent and good probability at the end of the round.

        I get that you hate the front office with all your being, but Culver and DBJ are really the only first round picks that both looked bad at the time and continue to look bad.

        • Hoss

          Considering that Cole had announced he was going to college before the draft (which is why he went so low) and Brackman was seriously injured, those were bad gambles.
          I will give them credit for Hughes, Joba and Kennedy in one draft. It is too bad that they chose to trade the best of the 3 in what is going to be known as one of the poorest trades in Yankee history.

          • jjyank

            Who should the Yankees have taken instead of Cole then? Saying he intends to go to college doesn’t mean he will if he’s taken in the first round and a million dollars is being waved in his face. It was a gamble, but if you’re going to take an elite talent at the end of the round, it’s always going to be a gamble. Always. This is a concept you don’t seem to get. If it wasn’t going to be a gamble, it wouldn’t have been for an elite talent.

            Same goes for Brackman. If he didn’t need TJS, he probably would have been a top 10 pick. Elite talent doesn’t fall to the 25-30 range unless a gamble is involved. Hell, the entire draft is one big gamble. Brackman and Cole were arguably the most talented players left on the board. I have no problem with those picks, and I hope the Yankees have a similar philosophy in the upcoming draft. Take the most talented players and hope for the best.

            • Hoss

              It’s impossible to know who else was on the Yankees’ draft board after Cole, but I can tell you that Casey Kelly and Jake Odorizzi were chosen within 5 picks down.
              As for Brackman, Todd Frazier, who grew up in Jersey and played at Rutgers was chosen shortly after him. Given how the Yankees ranted about being one of the only teams to scout Mike Trout, you’d think they would have known something about Frazier, too.

              But this is just pie in the sky. I just think they were bad gambles because Cole had a scholarship to UCLA (like Elway had a scholarship to Stanford) which is different than a free ride to Nowhere State U.
              And there was no need to use up a first round pick on a power pitcher with serious arm trouble.

              • jjyank

                You realize how dumb this game is, right? You can play with almost literally any pick in any round by any team.

                The Yankees selected elite level talents. With some risk, yes. But as you refuse to acknowledge, that’s going to be the case at the end of the round. The Yankees aren’t going to get a run at a Harper, a Strasburg, a Price. With the benefit of hindsight, the picks didn’t work out. But I believe the strategy behind them is sound.

                If you’re going to criticize the front office because they could have taken Casey Kelley instead of Cole, then I probably shouldn’t bother continuing the discussion.

                • Hoss

                  Hey, you asked me the question. I said it was pie in the sky and impossible to do, so why are you blaming me?

                  All I said is that I wouldn’t play my first round draft picks that way, ie with players who have solid intentions to go to college and/or serious injuries. What is wrong with that?

                  • jjyank

                    Fair enough.

                    I like the high school strategy though. I’d rather get them in the system young, before they can develop bad habits and before they’re exposed to college programs that don’t care if their arms fall off by age 23. I would imagine most high school kids intend on going to college, and I’m sure all the prospects worth talking about can get scholarships to get there. I don’t think you can write off that entire demographic because they might be harder to sign.

                    If Cole fell to the Yankees because he was considered a tough sign, I would absolutely take the shot of signing him. If he didn’t have signability concerns, the Yanks probably wouldn’t be able to take a shot at that kind of talent at the end of the round. How often do the Yankees get a shot of taking a guy talented enough to eventually become a #1 overall pick? If you take away the hindsight, that’s a pick I easily do over again.

              • Cool Lester Smooth

                Todd Frazier does not have one iota of Andrew Brackman’s raw talent.

                He might top out as a 3 WAR guy at 3B. Andrew Brackman had legit #1 upside coming out of college.

          • CS Yankee

            I recall that Cole was a huge Yankee fan and did the tour after the draft and waited for the last minute to decide on UCLA.

            He came from wealth, and was a Boras client…both afford the luxary of taking the emotion out and usually lead to a better outcome. He banged college chicks, played in the CWS and got much more coin at the end of the day versus being in the minors of an org that isn’t known for deleloping pitchers and has a real poor habit of kicking the farm hand to the curb to sign an over-aged vet that costs far more.

            • Laz

              But what is Pittsburgh known for?

              • CS Yankee

                Couldn’t control the city that drafted him, but could control who developed him (UCLA) and it resulted in a much higher position and dollars.

                He could become a NYY on/around 2019, as a FA, while helping them secure WS#30.

      • Travis L.

        I know right…damn them for everyone else who wasn’t a total un-signable, fractured prospect! How could they screw up a handful of picks?! Amateurs!

        • Dicka24

          I get the talent of Brackman and Cole, but if “you know what you’re doing”, you don’t draft complete misses. Nevermind them though, my real beef is with them taking guys no one has ranked anywhere near where the Yankees take them. Thats fine in the 7th or 12th rounds, but you dont take guys no one has near the top end of the draft, with your top picks. That’s why I mentioned Bleich and Culver. It shouldn’t come as a surprise when guys like that stink. The Yanks have a chance to get some serious talent this draft. There’s no reason to reach for it. Take the BPA.

          • jjyank

            I agree with you. Like I said above, I have no problem with picks like Cole and Brackman. The talent level justifies the pick. But if the Yankees want to keep a budget, they’re going to need some young talent. First round bullets like Culver and DBJ aren’t going to cut it.

            • RetroRob

              I’m still not sure what the Yankees were thinking with the Culver/Bichette picks, but my guess is it was a strategy based on budget, meaning Hal gave a budget, asked for them to stick to it, so D.O. implented a plan based on what he had. That meant pushing some of the money down in the draft to target players that were viewed as having signability issues. They went for some toolsy players with question marks at the front end, but ones who could be signed without blowing the budget. I understand it if that what D.O. did, yet it was unncessary. They Yankees could have had the best players at the front end and the back end. They should have fully used their financial power.

              I doubt we’ll ever see that strategy again based on the changes in the new CBA. The best players will be drafted toward the top, getting the most money.

            • Cool Lester Smooth

              Bichette wasn’t a first rounder, though. A 3B with nice raw power is a perfectly fine thing to draft in the supplemental round.

          • Cool Lester Smooth

            You’re right. The Rays should take your advice and fire Andrew Friedman, the guy who drafted a complete miss like Tim Beckham clearly doesn’t know what he’s doing.

  • uyf1950

    Mike, in your list how did the Brewers not lose their 17th pick when they signed Lohse. Shouldn’t the Yankees picks now be: 26, 32 and 33?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      Son of a bitch. I forgot to take the Brewers pick out when I updated the list. It’s all fixed now, both the draft order page and this post. Not a whole lot changed, the difference in the draft pool is $50k or so.

  • Robinson Tilapia

    I predict “makeup” suddenly starts showing up in “everything is wrong” complaints around here.

    I, frankly, do think both makeup and talent should be taken into consideration. I don’t want someone who is going to shit away their god-given talent in our system.

    I don’t mind “project” picks, but I do think the current state of the org calls for someone who can move up the ladder quickly. With three picks in the first, perhaps they can afford one project. If they reeeeeally want them, there, but I’d like to see some safer, consensus picks this year.

    • The Big City of Dreams

      but I’d like to see some safer, consensus picks this year.

      ——————————–

      Yea hopefully they can stay away from making reaches this yr. I can’t wait to see who they pick but more importantly I’m hoping for a good yr from the farm.

    • CS Yankee

      Agreed!

      Makeup is huge and they should choose the “safer” bet whenever they are close in talent. If a top 5 kid drops because he acts likes Bonds at 18, I think you need to gamble that you can correct those issues somewhat, however if a 24th ranked kid falls to 26th, and you had him downgraded to 32 due to makeup, you stick with the plan.

    • pat

      Consensus? Safe? No thank you. Keep doing what you’re doing. More Tyler Austins and Mason Williams plz.

    • Laz

      But the talented players with great makeup don’t last to the 30th pick.

  • mustang

    If the current state of the Yankees continues we can probably look forward to higher draft picks in years to come.
    YES!!

    At least it will open them to new advertising slogans:

    “Come and see the Yankees bad baseball, but high draft picks wait to 2021 maybe.”

  • Steve Harris

    Revlon has makeup….and a pretty poor baseball team.

    • http://www.penuel-law.com/ Cuso

      [Crickets]

  • EndlessJose

    The problem withthis team is there bad first round picks.They have been horrible so I can see the yankees wasting picks.Hopefully they go outand get many of the college pitchers in this draft.

    THe Yankees can’t afford to bring in prospects that will take 5 years to develop.

    • CS Yankee

      When you have the biggest stream of revenue, you most certainly can afford to let players develop and to gamble on locking them up early in their careers…if they are wrong, they have the resources to correct.

      The FA class over the next two years is really bad…only Cano this year and (maybe) Clayton in 2014.

      They have to employ the correct people, scour the globe for talent, pay the premiums on FA’s…cover all the bases before they let the criple go dumpster diving the last week of ST.

      • Laz

        Choo, Hart, Utley
        Are a few other interesting free agents.

        • Cool Lester Smooth

          Utley has a degenerative knee condition. Corey Hart just had his second knee injury in two years.

  • YanksFan

    I think the Culver & DBJ picks get panned too much. I’m not saying their going to be studs or weren’t overreaches(not as much as others think).

    Don’t you think that getting Culver possibly allowed them to pick Mason a few rounds later if they had their own draft pool budget in mind?

    DOn’t you think DBJ allowed them more money to sign someone else(Cave , Camarena)? Don’t remember who got some good coin later in the draft.

    They got guys with some skills who were going to take less, freeing up the money that the NYY were going to spend later.

    It’s not who they get with the first 3 picks but what they end up with for their 12 picks in the 10 rounds that matter. Didn’t they take 2 guys in the top 1o picks last year for peanuts($20,000 or $250,000?)

    • jjsabe

      Bird was in that draft I believe.

    • CS Yankee

      Good point, need to grade the whole draft but I would grade tougher if going against the grain led to unsignable talent. If you save money for the later rounds, they better sign or you screwed up the entire draft.

      Cole was a gamble, but understood that gamble and it just sucks when it doesn’t work out. Culver was a mystery to almost everyone and reminded me of years past in them drafting athletes instead of ballplayers. Williams & Slade seem like a solid combonation of both, while Austin the latter. DBJ was an over-reach “amkeup” guy that looked great the first year and horrible the second. Hopefully he makes adjustments.

      • Cool Lester Smooth

        DBJ was not a reach. He was a supplemental rounder, and a decent pick for the supplemental round.

        Struggled in Low-A at 19=/=non-prospect

  • pc

    when you are picking as late as the yanks normally are getting a good talent usually means taking a risk, with three of the first 33 taking a risk is a gamble worth taking.

  • CapitalT

    Who did they draft in 1978. Must have lead to those loaded teams in the 80’s. Granted even if it was a good draft, the players would have been shipped off for an out of his prime prior star

    • nsalem

      Steve Balboni and Rex Hudler were the 2 that made it to the Yankees.

  • Frank

    Could someone explain this for me….why do teams, the Yankees in particular, wait until later in the draft to take the tougher signs? Like mason Williams…why wait until the 4th round to draft him if you really like him and take lesser college guys before him? Or not spend on any guys in the early rounds 2-10 but spend on them later when there are fewer of them available and the ones who are…aren’t of the caliber of the guys who went earlier. Maybe I’m crazy, but it seems like you’d want to grab as many high end guys as possible as early as possible and worry about filler later in the draft.

    • Andy

      Think of it this way. Would you rather have Mason Williams, a 1st, a 2nd and a 3rd round pick or Mason Williams, a 2nd , a 3rd and fourth round pick? If you can get a good player later then you have better picks for the “filler”. Also you need to realize that most of the time the team just drafts whatever player they think has the most talent. And most money is spent early. Teams don’t try to save their money for late round picks all that often.