Aug
20

8/20-8/22 Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

By
Why yes, the Blue Jays did fall flat on their face this year. (Presswire)

Why yes, the Blue Jays did fall flat on their faces this year. (Presswire)

Four games in three days. Thanks to a May 19th rainout, the Yankees will play their third doubleheader of the season today as the Blue Jays come to town for the third and final time in 2013. New York split their previous two doubleheaders — one with the Indians and one with the Dodgers. They’ve also won eight of nine meetings against the offseason champs so far this year, and these two clubs will play seven times in the next nine days.

What Have They Done Lately?
Like the Yankees, Toronto was off on Monday. They lost two of three to the Rays this past weekend and have dropped seven of their last eleven games. The Jays are 12-18 in the second half and 57-67 with a -37 run differential overall, good for last place in the AL East. They’re seven games back of New York in the loss column.

Offense
With an average of 4.5 runs per games with a team 99 wRC+, the Blue Jays are basically a league average offense. OF Colby Rasmus (122 wRC+) and former Yankee OF Melky Cabrera (86 wRC+) are both on the DL and will not return this series. SS Jose Reyes (117 wRC+) is day-to-day with a knee issue and could be back in the lineup as soon as this afternoon.

(REUTERS/Fred Thornhill)

Encarnacion. (REUTERS/Fred Thornhill)

Manager John Gibbons’ lineup is anchored by the two big right-handed bats: 1B Edwin Encarnacion (146 wRC+) and RF Jose Bautista (134 wRC+). Encarnacion has more extra-base hits (57) and walks (65) than strikeouts (52). He’s become a truly elite power hitter these last two years. The other regulars you’ll recognize are 3B Brett Lawrie (104 wRC+), C J.P. Arencibia (70 wRC+), and DH Adam Lind (124 wRC+), who always seems to crush the Yankees.

With Cabrera and Rasmus hurt, the rest of outfield is filled out by LF Rajai Davis (83 wRC+), CF Anthony Gose (74 wRC+ in limited time), and OF Kevin Pillar (-100 wRC+ in very limited time). IF Maicer Izturis (63 wRC+) and IF Munenori Kawasaki (67 wRC+) handle middle infield duty while UTIL Mark DeRosa (104 wRC+) will sub in against southpaws. Backup C Josh Thole (33 wRC+ in limited time) rounds out the bench. Needless to say, Toronto’s lineup is much less potent without Reyes in the leadoff spot.

Starting Pitching Matchups

Tuesday Game One: RHP Ivan Nova vs. RHP Esmil Rogers
I’m not sure who is starting what game of the doubleheader for either team, but these are the four guys getting the ball later today. Rogers, 28, has a 4.91 ERA (4.61 FIP) in 102.2 innings as a true swingman this summer — 14 starts and 23 relief appearances. His walk (2.72 BB/9 and 6.8 BB%) and ground ball (46.4%) rates are strong, but the strikeout (6.22 K/9 and 15.7 K%) and homer (1.31 HR/9 and 15.2% HR/FB) totals are not. Rogers is a two-fastball (mid-90s two and four-seamers), three-offspeed (mid-80s slider and changeup, low-80s curve) pitcher out of the rotation, and it’s worth noting he has a massive platoon split — righties have gotten him for a modest .316 wOBA while lefties have tagged him for a .389 mark. The Yankees have seen Rogers seven times since the start of last year, but never once as a starter.

Buehrle. (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

Buehrle. (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

Tuesday Game Two: RHP Phil Hughes vs. LHP Mark Buehrle
The 34-year-old Buehrle has gotten over his early-season “welcome to the AL East” struggles and now owns a solid 4.29 ERA (4.18 FIP) in 25 starts. That’s pretty much the book on him, right? Solid. Buehrle has a career-high strikeout rate (6.06 K/9 and 15.6 K%) this year, but his walk rate (2.35 BB/9 and 6.1 BB%) is its highest in more than a decade as well. Still, that’s pretty good. He gets a decent amount of grounders (44.1%) but isn’t particularly adept at limiting the long ball (1.09 HR/9 and 10.6% HR/FB). Buehrle is the definition of a crafty lefty, a kitchen sink kinda guy. His two and four-seamer fastballs both sit in the mid-80s while his cutter is a touch lower in the low-80s. An upper-70s changeup and low-70s curve are his top offspeed offerings. Although he’s never had much of a platoon split, Buehrle has fared better against lefties (.288 wOBA) than righties (.338 wOBA) this season. The veteran-laden Yankees have seen former ChiSox southpaw plenty over the years, including three times a few months. They typically hit him hard.

Wednesday: LHP Andy Pettitte vs. RHP R.A. Dickey
I don’t think the Blue Jays were expecting a 4.49 ERA (4.78 FIP) when they acquired the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner over the winter, but that’s exactly what the 38-year-old Dickey has given them in 26 starts. Every time it appears he’s ready to get on a roll and dominate, he throws up a clunker. Dickey’s peripherals — 6.84 K/9 (17.9 K%), 3.05 BB/9 (8.0 BB%), 1.44 HR/9 (13.0% HR/FB), and 41.0% grounders — have taken significant steps back across the boards. I guess that’s how you go from Cy Young to a mid-4.00s ERA. He’s a knuckleballer, as you know, but in the past he used two distinct knuckleballs — a soft one in the mid-70s and a harder one in the low-80s. Dickey has lost the hard knuckler for whatever reason and now consistently sits in the mid-70s with the pitch. He throws it roughly 90% of the time and will use a low-80s fastball as a get-me-over-pitch. Lefties (.355 wOBA) have hit him harder than righties (.300 wOBA). The Yankees have seen Dickey a few times over the years thanks to interleague play with the Mets, but earlier this season he held them to three runs in seven innings.

(Abelimages/Getty)

Happ. (Abelimages/Getty)

Thursday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda vs. LHP J.A. Happ
Three months ago, the 30-year-old Happ was carted off the field after taking a line drive to the side of the head. He suffered a very small skull fracture, but the reason he missed so much time was a knee injury — he twisted his leg underneath him as the fell to the ground following the line drive and sprained a ligament. Happ has made three starts since returning from the DL and has pitched quite well in two of them, and overall he owns 4.93 ERA (4.09 FIP). The southpaw has missed enough bats (7.11 K/9 and 17.7 K%) and kept the ball in the park (0.73 HR/9 and 5.4% HR/FB), but his walk (4.56 BB/9 and 11.3 BB%) and ground ball (34.4%) rates are well-below-average. Happ is a five-pitch guy, sitting right around 90 mph with both his two and four-seamer. Both his slider and changeup come in in the low-80s, his curveball in the mid-70s. His platoon split (.287 vs. .335 wOBA) is modest. Happ held New York to three runs in six innings earlier this year and hasfaced them a few other times in recent seasons, including during the 2009 World Series while with the Phillies.

There has apparently been some talk of starting Adam Warren on Wednesday — the Yankees will need a spot starter no later than Saturday due to the doubleheader — and pushing everyone back, which would allow Kuroda to start against the Rays over the weekend. That’s preferable given the playoff situation and all that. They could always start Warren on Thursday or Friday instead, it doesn’t have to be Wednesday.

Janssen. (J. Meric/Getty Images)

Janssen. (J. Meric/Getty Images)

Bullpen Status
As I said before, the Jays were off on Monday, so their bullpen is as fresh as can be for mid-August. Closer RHP Casey Janssen (2.72 FIP) has been stellar, but primo setup man RHP Steve Delabar (2.44 FIP) is out with an elbow problem. Forgive me while I self-promote, but read this. LHP Brett Cecil (2.97 FIP) and RHP Sergio Santos (3.21 FIP in limited time) are now handling setup duties. LHP Darren Oliver (4.16 FIP), LHP Aaron Loup (3.54 FIP), RHP Neil Wagner (3.63 FIP), and RHP Brad Lincoln (5.35 FIP) fill out the rest of the seven-man relief corps.

The Yankees are in good bullpen shape thanks to yesterday’s off-day, though Warren might not be available after throwing 57 pitches on Saturday. Both Boone Logan and Shawn Kelley have made three appearances in the last five days, but neither has thrown more than nine pitches in a game since Thursday. Check out the Bullpen Workload page for exact recent reliever usage details. For the latest and greatest on the Blue Jays, check out Drunk Jays Fans and Tao of Stieb.

Categories : Series Preview

31 Comments»

  1. JLC 776 says:

    Most Important Series of the Year (6th edition)

  2. Eddard says:

    They need to take at least 3/4 to stay alive. A lot of pressure on Nova with the automatic loss looming tonight. Hughes does get a good match up against Buehrle. Maybe the offense can put double digit runs on the board and Hughes can win 10-7. That’s about the only shot he has. Bautista and Encarnacion have already hit HRs.

    • Kramerica Industries says:

      That’s actually the matchup you’d really hope for, since the Yankees generally hit Buehrle well.

    • Jim Is A (Bored) Peckerhead says:

      Hughes had a quality start his last time out.

      By the definition of the phrase. Not his fault the offense didn’t show up.

  3. SDB says:

    Aren’t the Yankees allowed to bring up a 26th man for the doubleheader today? Have they announced a roster move?

  4. Robinson Tilapia says:

    Going against convention and/or Eddard worked with my Sox prediction. I guess I could try that again, but I won’t. We’ll go slightly against the grain, though.

    Yanks take three of four. Kuroda winds up the hard-luck loser. Hughes shocks the world. Why not.

    • JLC 776 says:

      Hughes is due to knock out four or five straight quality starts, as he’s prone to do from time-to-time. His last outing wasn’t too shabby, so, hey, I can buy that it’s time.

      My pointless prediction is that they shockingly lose the first game, sending everyone into a suicidal tizzy, and then win the next three behind solid pitching.

    • I'm One says:

      Kuroda winds up the hard-luck loser.

      Not possible in this universe. He lost last time out, therefore he can’t lose his next game (whether you consider that a hard luck loss or not is up to you).

      • Robinson Tilapia says:

        This is an exercise in how far going against “well this is a lock and that’s an instant loss” kind of thinking gets me, even though I’m not fully committing as much to it with this series.

  5. TheEvilUmpire says:

    If both teams were off yesterday, why didn’t they make up a game then rather than play the doubleheader today? Wouldn’t that have been preferable?

    • JLC 776 says:

      I think the scheduling geniuses try to stay away from a game after one of the teams has the late, Sunday night matchup and then travels.

      • Dalek Jeter says:

        I’ve never played 162 games of baseball in 183 days…but I think I’d rather play on consecutive days then play two full games in a single day.

        • JLC 776 says:

          I would also think everyone profiting from baseball would prefer two prime-time matchups as opposed to a split double-header. But I suppose there’s a high enough probability of the 8PM game going past midnight and making travel really tough that it’s easier to blank out the schedule on the following day unless absolutely necessary. Or something like that.

      • MannyGeee says:

        Ah, the Adrian Gonzalez Rule. The single reason the 2011 offseason champion Red Sox failed to fulfill their prophecy.

        • lightSABR says:

          That was rather impressively pathetic, wasn’t it?

          One of the great silver linings of this miserable season is that the Yankees have taken it like men. Maybe somebody has whined about bad luck at some point, but I haven’t heard it.

      • Kramerica Industries says:

        The Red Sox had a Sunday night game, and then had to be out in San Francisco the very next day.

        And they promptly shutout the Giants and didn’t break a sweat in the process. Irritating.

  6. TheEvilUmpire says:

    Anyone hear about Nunez’s status? Could the 26th man be an infielder (Gonzales? Adams?) if he isn’t able to go?

    • stuart a says:

      still a little tight not starting in the 1st game.

      the guy cannot stay om the field and do not give me the age nonsense. the guy is under 27.

      • Robinson Tilapia says:

        He should join the A-Rod grievance.

        That’d be hilarious, actually. I wonder if I could file a counter-grievance against Eduardo Nunez for making watch him throw the ball into the stands to many times.

  7. jjyank says:

    My day off this week came rather well timed with the double header today. Let’s do this.

  8. LuisCruz says:

    The newest way for Cashman to obtain acquisition, courtesy of MLBTR:

    Today we’re happy to introduce a new way to monitor these players: MLBTR’s DFA Tracker. The tracker, which will be updated moving forward, lists the player’s name, team, date designated, and the date by which a resolution is expected.

    • YanksFan says:

      With the way Cash & AA go through the DFA’s, I would bet that they’re contributing writers for that series :)

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