Sherman: Qualifying offers will be $14.1M this offseason
ByVia Joel Sherman: Qualifying offers will be worth $14.1M this offseason, up from $13.3M last winter. The qualifying offer is based on the average of the top 125 salaries in the game and it was expected to increase this year. It’ll probably go up next year as well. A team must make a player qualifying offer to receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere.
The Yankees have three guys who figure to receive qualifying offers in the coming weeks: Robinson Cano, Hiroki Kuroda, and Curtis Granderson. Phil Hughes pitched himself out of a qualifying offer and there’s no reason to give one to the retired Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte. I think there’s a chance (albeit a real small one) that Granderson accepts the offer and tries to rebuild his value with a healthy 2014 before hitting the market again. Then again, he’s already 33 and this might be his last chance at a multi-year deal.
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They all reject QO…I offer Kuroda 1/15, Grandy 2/20, Cano 6/150….otherwise take the pics and get on with the future.
None of them will accept those deals, and I hope you’re fine with the yankees picking top 10 for at least the next half decade.
Kuroda might accept that offer. We have three holes in our rotation without him, Pettitte, and Hughes. So I think the Yanks will try to keep him and then try to fill the other two spots with guys from outside the organization (perhaps Tanaka and a FA) with Kuroda staying. I don’t understand why people focus on his collapse since he stilled finished with an ERA in the low 3s. Not sure if goes to Japan though. But I’m not comfortable giving the last spot to anyone in our farm besides Pineda and he would have his innings limited.
Without Grandy we’re down to 2 good outfielders and I would feel much better if we got a third whether it’s him or not. Plus Soriano is getting older and will likely be worse next year so we need more production from our outfield. I’d be willing to go maybe 26/2 for Grandy but I’m fine with looking at other external options as well.
Cano is the only reliable infielder right now with everyone else being a question mark. The lineup and defense would really suffer without him unless we somehow find other ways to spend the money on guys that would give us bang for our buck and would fill multiple holes. Cano’s not going to take a discount and I can’t see him taking anything less than 7 years. I think 24 AAV for 7 years should be fair for both sides. Anything over that would just hinder us filling other holes and staying under 189 while remaining competitive. Not to mention probably hurt us down the road with another large contract.
I believe Tanaka could be a cornerstone of a revamped pitching core. Even though he’s kind of an “unknown”, there seems to be enough evidence to suggest a number 2 or 3 starter in majors. “If” Sabathia can rebound and revert to his former self, then you quite possibly have 2/5th’s of your starting 5. Nova fits in there anywhere from 2 to 4. I believe NY needs that Tanaka lottery ticket to jump-kick the formation of a strong starting 4/5. Warren deserves a long look (imo). He looked especially good at years end. Guy was throwing change-up’s ! Thought I was looking at a Ray’s pitcher. Outfield wise, maybe Beltran short term, or a shocker like Ellsbury at possibly Pence money.
I see Warren as the perfect long man in the pen. Phelps can be in that role as well. But I’m not sure I want to see these guys in the rotation yet. Maybe next year if they do well but I want to see more of what we have in them first. I don’t know much about Tanaka but he seems like the younger version of Kuroda. I would be alright with signing him. I think a rotation of CC Kuroda Nova Tanaka and one of Pineda/Warren/Phelps/Nuno/FA) could be good enough to contend but a young guy would have to step up in the 5th spot unless we get a FA and that’s asking a lot. We wouldn’t have an ace but we have probably 3 middle of the rotation guys and whatever CC will be. That rotation has question marks though like how will Tanaka adjust, will Kuroda be himself or continue his fade, was Nova legit last year, will CC bounce back, who is going to step up to grab the 5th spot, etc.
Cano will not sign for anything less than 8 years and 200 million. Sorry, but everyone who keeps saying 5/6 years at 150-175 are not looking at the situation realistically.
I don’t disagree he’ll get his money, but I just find it obscene to pay a second baseman 25 per for 8 years. Obviously it’s all obscene Monopoly money at that stage, but more so for a second baseman. He’d probably be “over-paid” for first 4 years, and then obscenely over-paid during the second half, albatross years of his contract. Don’t want to lose him, but boy that’s a lot of Benjamin’s for a second baseman.
I don’t understand why you keep saying “second baseman” as if that’s somehow a strike against him. Surely you recognize that the reason Cano’s so valuable is that he’s a Gold Glove second baseman who hits like a first baseman? If anything that makes him more desirable.
Right or wrong, 2nd base isn’t seen as a premium position. And defensively……, some would say range to his right is limited. Very good player, but…., at what price to keep him ? 7/161 was a generous offer, imo. 25mm on 1 player for 8 years, or 2 to 3 players for significantly shorter periods ? 2 to 3 year players until the farm can step-up.
Kuroda might accept, but he probably won’t, which will give him time to figure out what he wants to do. Retire, play another year in MLB, or go back to Japan to finish things off.
Grandy is the most interesting case. I think some team will give him 2/$25-30 million, and if FA is what it always tends to be, which is ridiculous, then he probably is in line for a 3 year offer. His injuries were fluke, HBP’s, and not anything surgical or structural like a torn up knee or shoulder. If the BJ Uptons of the league are costing you 5/$75 million, doesn’t 3/$40 million for Grandy look plausible? Someone will pay him, which makes me think he rejects the QO. I’d go 2 years with an option for sure if I’m the Yankees, maybe even 3 if the money is right. He’s got his flaws (low avg), and is getting into the danger zone in age (mid 30′s), but he should be good for solid D in the corners, and 30-40 homers. That costs money in todays league.
6/$150 for Cano is about the limit I think. $25 million a year till his age 37 season. I’d move on as well if it takes more than that. This team has to learn a couple things. 1) you can’t sign players till their late 30′s and 40′s, at ridiculous money. Paying guys at 38, for reduced production, at top tier dollars is bad business. Locks up positions, restricts payroll, and kills flexibility. 2) When you have good, talented, future with the team type players, you should seriously move to lock them up ahead of time. Waiting till everyone hits FA to sign them to extensions works when the players are much older, or when salary restrictions didn’t exist. Todays environment favors those who plan ahead, and plan accordingly. Cano, one of the few players they actually extended early on to their benefit, should have been extended 2-3 years ago.
And in that….., lies the crux of the matter. “Waiting” ’til a player like Cano hits free agency is a no win proposition. No win in money/years, or losing a franchise type player. Different teams in dollars and “sense”, but this is where a team like The Rays make the tough decisions/choices, mitigate their loses by trading top players and replenishing with younger, top tier, team controlled prospects. i.e.,Shields for Wil Myers. Coupled with great scouting and drafting, winning formula….., maybe.
Carl Crawford?
BJ Upton?
We’ve heard rumors that the Yankees have already offered Cano 7/161 or something like that. I don’t think he’s accepting 6/150, although 6 years is about as long as I’d like his contract to be. Maybe offer him a 7th based on achieving some milestones.
Have to give Kuroda a QO. If he wants to return, then he’d probably accept somewhere around $15M, which I’m fine with. Granderson is a tough case. I, too, would be fine with a 2 year deal for him, possibly 3, but I’m guessing there’s someone out there that’s probably willing to offer him more than the Yankees. Then it comes down to where he wants to play based on the money offered. We’ll see.
Definitely feel the Yankees should go hard after Tanaka. They have the money for the posting fee. They should be able to get him for $10M AAV or less, over 5 or 6 years. At 24, I’d take the shot at him. He could help the team for a long time.
I am definitely in the minority, but I would think twice about not offering Hughes a QO. He’s still 27 years old coming into the prime of his career, you can’t tell me there isn’t a NL team in a big ballpark that will give the guy a multi year deal. If I’m Hughes there is no way I accept the QO anyhow. If he wants to get paid he’s not going to come back to a ballpark and league that he’s had some success but have gotten hammered more than not. Given his age and still some potential left in him I can’t see how you offer him a QO. If he accepts you can he can still be a back end guy who is overpaid but it’s one less question mark you have in the rotation. Not saying he’s going to better than league average but it’s better than the unknown you’re gonna get from Pineda or Tankana or whatever his name is.
When the known isn’t any good, I’ll take a chance with the unknown every time.
The known that has been a quality starting pitcher in multiple years for the team? I’m not saying he’s a savior for the pitching staff and he wasn’t good at all this year, but he can give league average performance on the team, and the market for starting pitchers aren’t good at all. Loasco? Tankana? Johan Santana? No thanks. Also as the youngest pitcher on the market by far he’s going to get a multi year deal somewhere. If Hughes doesn’t get a multitear deal I’d eat the Kabak hat. He’s just too young not to get an offer.
Hughes will end up signing for about $14M over two years, if that. He would be crazy not to sign the QO. If the Yankees are budget conscious (and they surely are, whether $189M is “real” or not), Hughes is a bad use of $14M.
I can see an NL team in a big park offering Hughes 2/$20 million.
Would be turn down the QO for that kind of deal knowing he pretty much is destroying his future earning potential every year he pitches in YS3??
Bye Phil!
The problem with offering Phil Hughes the QO is that it may scare off some teams that would have offered 2-3 year contracts because now they would lose a draft pick. He is not that good where losing a draft pick would be not enter into a team’s calculation of offfering him a long-term contract – that means he may take the Yankees QO, a definite negative in a $189 mm world.
Cano 5>125, Grandy 3>50. KURODA 1>12. Don’t think Hirok will be as good as 1st 4 months of 2013. 21 M a year quite generous for a 25-30
.310 100 RBI 2nd baseman. Wonderfully smooth defense on balls reached but range average. Years need to be 6 at most. Years will be tough sticking point not $$.
Cano 5>125, Grandy 3>50. Kuroda 1>12. Don’t think Hirok will be as good as 1st 4 months of 2013. 21 M a year quite generous for a 25-30 HR .310 AVG 100 RBI 2nd baseman. Wonderfully smooth defense on balls reached but range average. Years need to be 6 at most. Years will be tough sticking point not $$. Jeter, Alex BIG BIG headaches. Both in way of team moving forward for various on field capability and $$$ reasons. Optimistic on Tex who should be okay .260 hitter with power and great 0glove for 2 more years if he stays healthy. Ichiro, Wells should play little. CC should be good but not great. Get in on Kershaw FA early if possible.
In your wildest dreams Kershaw. They would have to give him Rockefeller Center to outbid the Magic Dodgers.
I accept!