12 Years of Prospect Watching at RAB

In six days, we are closing down RAB after covering the Yankees top to bottom for more than 12 years. It was quite a ride. Lot of fun, but also a lot of work, and now that the work outweighs the fun, it’s time to move on. RAB experienced a World Series championship and many really cool moments. I’m grateful.

The RAB era also covered countless minor league prospects. Most of them flamed out, because that’s what prospects do, but a select few broke out and became big league players. Some even did so with the Yankees. I’ve been posting my annual top 30 prospects list since 2007. That’s a lot of words on players who didn’t make it.

I’d say that, for the majority of RAB’s existence, the Yankees were labeled a poor player development team. It wasn’t until recently that they shed that label, but you know what? The Yankees lead baseball in WAR produced by homegrown players since RAB launched in 2007. From the Baseball Gauge:

1. Yankees: +193.2 WAR
2. Diamondbacks: +191.6 WAR
3. Red Sox: +191.0 WAR
4. Reds: +176.0 WAR
5. Rockies: +170.3 WAR

Baseball America puts out organizational top 30 prospects lists each year and the Yankees have had 55 different top 30 prospects reach the big leagues since 2007, ten more than any other team. They also lead baseball in pitching WAR from the farm system at +119.6 during that time. The Dodgers are a distant second at +96.7 WAR on the pitching side. Bet you wouldn’t have guessed that.

We’ve already looked at what I consider the five most memorable games of the RAB era. Now let’s dip into the minor league scene and recap the last 12+ years in the farm system. Come with me, won’t you?

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Rank prospects long enough and certain spots develop a personality. The No. 1 spot is the top guy, obviously. The No. 10 spot is where you put that second (or sometimes third) tier prospect you feel strongly about. There is a most definitely a difference between being the No. 10 prospect and No. 11 prospect in the organization. I can’t really explain it. When you’re in the top ten, you’re legit. Things start to feel a little iffy after that. Also, the No. 30 spot is usually a choice between several players, none of them great. That spot tends to go to a personal favorite. Maybe the guy with the best chance to be a big leaguer, though not necessarily become a great player.

With the exception of Florial, my most recent No. 1 prospect and still a baseball baby, every one of my No. 1 prospects reached the big leagues. I’m not trying to gloat. The No. 1 guy is usually the easiest to rank. Relative to other prospect rankers, I think I stick to my guns a little more. Plenty of folks jumped off the Sanchez bandwagon in 2014 and many shied away from Judge in 2017. Development is not linear. Gotta give these kids a chance to experience failure and adjust before pulling the plug.

I’m more proud that ten of my No. 10 prospects and seven of my No. 30 prospects reached the big leagues than I am that all of my No. 1 prospects reached the show (save Florial). More than half my No. 30 guys made it! Betances obviously went on to have a significant MLB career, though he also bounced around my rankings for a better part of a decade. Without checking, I have to think Dellin appeared on more RAB top 30 prospects lists than any other player. I ranked him every year from 2007-14 (!).

Anyway, Edwar Ramirez spent a few years in the show, Miranda and Jackson had cups of coffee, Cabral kept getting looks, and Heathcott did this …

… and that was pretty cool. Hughes and Chamberlain helped the Yankees win a World Series title in 2009. Sanchez, Judge, and Torres (and Florial?) will hopefully be part of the next World Series winning Yankees team. As much fun as the highly regarded prospects are — and believe me, they are a blast — there is a certain pleasure in watching those lower ranked prospects reach the big leagues after following their careers and blogging about it along the way.

Ten Best Prospects

1. 2011 Jesus Montero
2. 2017 Gleyber Torres
3. 2008 Joba Chamberlain
4. 2007 Phil Hughes
5. 2013 Gary Sanchez
6. 2016 Aaron Judge
7. 2015 Luis Severino
8. 2012 Manny Banuelos
9. 2017 Clint Frazier
10. 2007 Jose Tabata

The best prospect and the best player are not necessarily the same thing. Sometimes a prospect who flashes all the right tools and skills doesn’t pan out. Example: Jesus Montero. He was an out of this world great prospect, so much so that this cursed image exists in our gallery:

You can thank Baseball America for that. At his prospect peak in 2011, Montero was lauded as a hitting savant and he’d drawn Frank Thomas comps. He was such a good prospect that if I elected to use multiple years of the same player in these rankings, it would be 2011 Montero in the top spot and 2010 Montero in the second spot. You could dream on his easy opposite field power for days. To wit:

Obviously it never worked out. The Yankees traded Montero during the 2011-12 offseason and he pretty much ate his way out of the big leagues. He turns 30 later this year and seems to be out of baseball after hitting .273/.349/.382 in the Mexico last year.

In terms of pure hype, I think 2007 Hughes takes the cake. Back in those days top pitching prospects received so much hype because not enough people were factoring in attrition and injury rates. These days the prospect world does a much better job of baking risk into the cake, and thus top position players prospects tend to be ranked above top pitching prospects. Hughes didn’t live up to the prospect hype, but he spent more than a decade in the big leagues as a league average starter/really good reliever, and that’s not nothing.

Joba at his prospect peak was better than Hughes at his prospect peak and maybe he was more hyped. He did have that insane run in 2007, remember. Chamberlain was the better prospect because he had a better fastball and because his secondary stuff was just vicious. RAB came into its own during the “Joba should start!” internet wars and I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t still curious to know what would’ve happened had the Yankees not jerked him around. That said, Joba did himself no favors by reporting to Spring Training out of shape multiple times.

Anyway, Judge is the best player to come out of the farm system on a rate basis since RAB launched — Robinson Cano debuted before RAB and Brett Gardner has accumulated the most WAR among homegrown Yankees during the RAB era, though Judge has him beat on a per plate appearance basis — but prospect rankers always seemed to keep him at arm’s length because he’s so big and had extreme swing-and-miss tendencies. In hindsight, Baseball America’s top 100 list in 2017 is a hoot:

86. SS Delvin Perez, Cardinals
87. RHP James Kaprielian, Yankees
88. LHP Anthony Banda, Diamondbacks
89. RHP Tyler Beede, Giants
90. OF Aaron Judge, Yankees

That said, ranking Judge cautiously was not unreasonable at the time. Sanchez and Torres had more prospect hype at their peaks because they were up-the-middle players with loud tools. Sanchez basically projected to be a Judge-type hitter at catcher whereas Gleyber had a high-end all-around game and plenty of baseball smarts. Judge is very much a hindsight prospect. If everyone had known what they know now, he would’ve been a top three pick in the draft and the game’s top prospect. During his prospect days though, he was difficult to project.

The final two spots in that top ten are difficult to pin down. 2008 Ian Kennedy and 2013 Mason Williams belong in that conversation, as does 2018 Justus Sheffield. I think Frazier and Tabata are the right guys for the last two spots. Clint had the pedigree as the former high draft pick and Tabata, gosh, it’s easy to forget just how highly regarded he was back in the day. He was a consensus top 30 global prospect who reached Double-A at 19 and Triple-A at 20. Tabata back then is what people wish Florial is now.

Five Biggest Busts

1. C Jesus Montero
2. RHP Andrew Brackman
3. OF Jose Tabata
4. OF Mason Williams
5. OF Slade Heathcott

I don’t like dwelling on busts because many times flaming out is treated as a character flaw when it really just boils down to Major League Baseball being extremely difficult, and also players getting hurt sometimes. Montero’s and Tabata’s approaches were not as advanced as they appeared in the minors, Williams and Heathcott had trouble staying healthy, and Brackman was an inexperienced two-sport guy who never could figure out a delivery at his size (6-foot-10). Meh. Some guys make it, most don’t. Learn from the ranking mistakes and move on.

Five Personal Favorites

1. 3B Miguel Andujar
2. RHP Ross Ohlendorf
3. 3B Marcos Vechionacci
4. RHP Jose Ramirez
5. RHP Graham Stoneburner

Like everyone else, I develop personal favorites while following the farm system, and sometimes there’s no good reason why it happens either. You fall in love with so many prospects over the years and, given the nature of the beast, most of them never make it, so when one of them turns into Andujar, it feels like a million bucks. I loved (and still love) his insane bat-to-ball stills, his ability to hit anything anywhere, his power potential, and his energy and love for the game. Let’s watch some Andujar highlights, shall we? I miss watching him play.

I was a big Ohlendorf guy. I even bought an OHLENDORF 39 shirt. True story. His fastball moved all over the place (but apparently it didn’t have as much velocity as remember based on the pitch tracking data) and his slider was promising, plus he was a smart dude with a knack for making adjustments. Guys like Ramirez and Stoneburner stood out during their prospect days but would be a dime-a-dozen now. Oh, you throw 96-98 mph with a sharp slider and no command? Get in line.

Vechionacci was pretty much the opposite of Andujar. He could play the hell out of third base but he couldn’t hit much. I kept waiting and waiting and waiting for that big breakout year at the plate and it never came. It wasn’t until his fourth season with Double-A Trenton that he slugged better than .370 while playing at least 100 games. I fell in love with more random prospects over the years than I could possibly count (I thought Ramon Flores would be Michael Brantley, basically), but Andujar is easily at the top of this list for me. He’s in his own tier. After covering the system for 12+ years, sending RAB out with this group of homegrown players is pretty rad.