7/3 to 7/5 Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees visited Toronto to kick-off the month of June, splitting a four-game series. They outscored Toronto 26-12, with two blow-out victories (12-2 and 7-0) being balanced against narrow losses (7-5 and 3-2). Some notes:

You could not have drawn up a much better game for the Yankees than their 12-2 victory in the first game. All nine starters reached base at least once, with Gary Sanchez (2-for-5 with two home runs) and Aaron Hicks (4-for-5 with 3 doubles and 6 RBI) leading the way. And CC Sabathia looked great, going 6.1 IP and allowing 5 hits and 1 run, while striking out 7.
Bad Michael Pineda started the second game, allowing 10 hits, 5 runs, and 3 walks in 5 IP. The Yankees did mount a few comeback efforts, but going 0-for-9 with RISP kept the game just out of reach.
The Yankees teed-off on Jason Grilli in the third game, with Brett Gardner, Matt Holliday, Starlin Castro, and Didi Gregorius taking him deep in the top of the 8th.
In a sign of things to come, Tyler Clippard cost the Yankees the final game of the series, allowing a home run to Josh Donaldson in the bottom of the 8th.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more fun facts.

Injury Report

RHP Aaron Sanchez has been on the disabled list with recurring blister problems for most of this season, having made just five starts thus far. He might be back this coming weekend, but the Yankees will not see him during this series. Sanchez is probably the Blue Jays’ biggest loss thus far, as he was their undisputed ace in 2016.

He isn’t alone on the DL, either. Would-be starting second baseman Devon Travis is out until September following knee surgery, and RHP Leonel Campos, OF Darrell Ceciliani, IF Chris Coghlan, LHP J.P. Howell, and RHP Joe Smith are all out with a TBD return date. None are likely to face the Yankees this week.

Their Story So Far

As was the case last time around, injuries have played a huge role in the Blue Jays lack of success this year. They’ve sent four of their starting position players to the DL at some point, as well as two starting pitchers, and a veritable slew of bench players and relievers. The offense has felt it the worst, currently sitting 26th in the majors in runs scored.

The Blue Jays are 37-44 with a -45 run differential, having lost four in a row (including a three-game sweep at the hands of the Red Sox this past weekend). They’re currently in last place in the AL East.

Check out Bluebird Banter for more news and notes about the Blue Jays.

The Lineup We Might See

Toronto has been searching for an ideal lineup throughout the season, having been through 71 different combinations thus far. Manager John Gibbons has somewhat settled on this configuration of late:

Jose Bautista, RF
Russell Martin, C
Josh Donaldson, 3B
Justin Smoak, 1B
Kendrys Morales, DH
Troy Tulowitzki, SS
Steve Pearce, LF
Kevin Pillar, CF
Ryan Goins, 2B

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. RHP Marcus Stroman

This will be the Yankees third time facing Stroman in 2017, and it is a rubber match of sorts. They knocked him around for 3 innings on May 3, chasing him early after scoring 5 runs on 6 hits, 3 walks, and a couple of home runs. Stroman was much better the second time around, pitching to the following line on June 4: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 K. He has held the Yankees to a 2.91 ERA in 58.2 IP for his career.

Last Outing (vs. BAL on 6/28) – 7.2 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K

Tuesday (1:05 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. LHP J.A. Happ

Happ was on the DL the first time these teams met, and just missed the Yankees the second time around. He has been a mild revelation in his second stint with the Blue Jays, pitching to a 3.29 ERA (131 ERA+) in 245 IP and giving credence to the notion that the Pittsburgh Pirates coaching staff’s black magic can continue to work even once the pitcher leaves its control.

The 34-year-old southpaw is essentially a fastball/sinker guy, with around 75% of his offerings being either his low-90s four-seamer or low-90s sinker. He also throws the a mid-80s change-up, and an occasional curveball or slider.

Last Outing (vs. BAL on 6/29) – 6.1 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 2 K

Wednesday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Michael Pineda vs. RHP Marco Estrada

As was the case with Stroman, the Yankees have already seen Estrada twice this year, and with mixed results. He shut them down on May 1 (7.0 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 5 K), and served up batting practice on June 1 (3.2 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 2 BB, 4 K). Estrada has largely struggled since that last outing, pitching to a 7.88 ERA (5.39 FIP) in his five subsequent starts.

Last Outing (vs. BOS on 6/30) – 4.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 7 BB, 3 K

The Bullpen

The Blue Jays bullpen ERA jumped from 3.79 to 3.99 in one afternoon, thanks to its 3.2 IP, 8 ER effort against the Red Sox yesterday. They were already trailing 7-1 when the bullpen took over, so it was largely garbage-time innings handled by the mop-up relievers, but the group is shorthanded due to the injuries to Howell, Smith, and Campos, and Joe Biagini’s transition to the bullpen.

Closer Roberto Osuna is healthy and pitching well, though, with a 2.25 ERA (202 ERA+) and 19 saves in 22 chances, as well as stellar strikeout (12.4 K/9) and walk (0.8 BB/9) rates. RHP Ryan Tepera and RHP Danny Barnes are their de facto set-up men for the time being, and both have been solid in 35-plus IP apiece so far. The bullpen thins out dramatically after that, though, and it has been leaned on heavily of late.

Who (Or What) To Watch

Way back in 2010, Justin Smoak was regarded as one of the best prospects in all of baseball, as a switch-hitter with plus power and a plus hit tool. He was the prize of the deal that sent Cliff Lee to the Rangers back in 2010, and many thought that the Mariners did well by waiting for him instead of taking on Jesus Montero. For the first seven years of his career, though, Smoak was a platoon player at best, with a .223/.308/.392 slash line (95 OPS+) through 2887 PA. And now, in his age-30 season, he seems to be breaking out.

Smoak is currently slashing .300/.368/.592 (150 wRC+), with a career-high 22 HR in 299 PA. He’s also improving every month, with his wRC+ increasing from 109 in April to 148 in May to 180 in June. The key seems to be cutting his strikeout rate to 18.4%, as opposed to 26.2% in 2015 and 32.8% in 2016. It’s either a fluke or a late-career success story, but it’s intriguing to watch regardless.