The complicated arbitration case of Dellin Betances

(Rich Schultz/Getty)
(Rich Schultz/Getty)

Last Friday, the Yankees signed all their arbitration-eligible players prior to the salary filing deadline except one: Dellin Betances. Betances, who is up for arbitration for the first time, filed a $5M salary with the panel. The Yankees countered with $3M. The $2M gap is enormous. In fact, it’s the second biggest gap in filing figures this offseason. (Drew Pomeranz and the Red Sox are $2.1M apart.)

Before we go any further, I should make it clear the Yankees and Betances are not automatically going to an arbitration hearing now that they’ve filed salary figures. They can still negotiate a contract of any size. Last offseason the Yankees and Aroldis Chapman were a whopping $4.1M apart with their filing figures ($13.1M vs. $9M), yet they hammered out an $11.32M deal before a hearing. The Yankees and Betances could do the same.

Now, that said, the Yankees and Betances have had difficult contract negotiations in the past. Last offseason the team offered a $540,000 salary, which was only slightly above the $507,500 league minimum. Betances rejected the modest raise because he believed he deserved more, so the Yankees renewed him at the minimum. Dellin took a stand, which was his right, and the Yankees renewed his contract at a salary of their choosing, which was their right.

Things are different this offseason because of arbitration, so if Betances is not happy with what the Yankees are offering, he can take them to a hearing and state his case. If it does get to a hearing — the Yankees haven’t been to an arbitration hearing since beating Chien-Ming Wang in 2008 — the two sides will make their arguments, and the three-personal panel will chose either the $5M or $3M for 2017, nothing in-between.

The big gap in filing figures tells us a few things. First and foremost, it tells us Betances and his representatives believe he deserves to be paid not just like a closer, but like a great closer. Consider that just last offseason, established closers like Jeurys Familia ($4.05M), Cody Allen ($4.15M), and Hector Rondon ($4.2M) all signed for less than Dellin’s filing figure in their first trip through arbitration. He’s looking for an unprecedented payday for a non-closer reliever.

Secondly, the filing figures tell us the Yankees are willing to pay Betances a top salary for a non-closer. That $3M is pretty damn high. Top setup relievers like David Robertson ($1.6M), Kelvin Herrera ($1.6M), and Tony Watson ($1.75M) all signed for way less than $3M in their first trip through arbitration. The Yankees are willing to pay Betances handsomely relative to other non-closers. He wants to be paid like a closer though. A great closer.

It’s important to note the arbitration process is very archaic. Things like WAR and FIP are pointless. Saves matter more than anything for relievers. Strikeouts are good, but not as good as saves. All-Star appearances matter too. Betances is going into arbitration with three All-Star Game selections, a handful of saves (22 to be exact), and a boatload of strikeouts. (Dellin led all relievers with 392 strikeouts from 2014-16. Andrew Miller is second with 326.) His case is strong, but it would be stronger with more saves.

How exactly did Betances and his representatives come up with that $5M salary? It’s not like they pulled a number out of thin air. Arbitration is based on the salaries of other players at the same service time level, and Dellin’s camp had to come up with a number they can defend in a hearing. Go too high, and the arbitration panel will side with the Yankees. This is where I’m guessing that $5M comes from:

SV IP ERA WHIP FIP K% BB% GB% HR/9 bWAR fWAR ASG
Dellin at Arb1 22 254.2 2.16 1.00 2.06 39.8 9.9 48.3 0.57 8.3 8.5 3
Aroldis at Arb1 77 198.2 2.40 1.02 2.27 40.9 12.4 42.7 0.59 6.4 6.2 2

Aside from saves, Betances compares favorably to Chapman when he went through arbitration the first time. And what did Chapman make in his first year as an arbitration-eligible player? Yep, $5M. On the nose. Dellin’s camp will have to hope three years worth of inflation — Aroldis went through arbitration for the first time during the 2013-14 offseason — can make up for the lack of saves.

There is a big problem with the Betances-Chapman comp, however. Even beyond saves, I mean. Chapman was not a normal pre-arbitration player like Betances. He signed a six-year contract worth $30.25M with the Reds and pulled in $2M in base salary in both 2012 and 2013. Chapman actually opted into arbitration. His contract included a $3M salary for 2014, so he used the opt-out to go through arbitration, where he made $5M instead.

Chapman started with a much higher base salary, and that matters. Going from $2M in 2013 to $5M in 2014 is a $3M raise. Betances wants to go from $507,500 in 2016 to $5M in 2017. That’s a $4.4925M raise. Pretty big difference there, eh? Dellin’s camp can say he deserves $5M because his numbers match up with Chapman’s. The Yankees can counter by saying Chapman only received a $3M raise, so their $3M filing figure is more appropriate, especially when factoring in saves.

How did the Yankees come up with their $3M filing figure? I have no idea. As far as I can tell, no non-closer reliever received that much in their first year of arbitration. They’re offering him an unprecedented salary for a first year eligible setup man. Kenley Jansen, like Chapman, had numbers comparable to Betances in his first year of arbitration-eligibility and he received $4.3M. That was a $3.788M raise from the previous year. Dellin is asking for quite a bit more than that.

(Sean M. Haffey/Getty)
(Sean M. Haffey/Getty)

It’s easy to say the cheap ass Yankees are being cheap asses, and they should just pay one of their best and most popular (and homegrown!) players what he wants to maintain a good relationship, especially after renewing him at the minimum last year. After all, what’s another $2M when you’re running a payroll near $220M? They’re going to pay Brian McCann $5.5M to play for the Astros in 2017. Why nickle and dime Betances?

That’s not how it works though. Arbitration salaries are based on the player’s salary in the previous year, so it carries over. It’s not just $2M this year. It’s $2M this year plus whatever raises on top of that Betances will receive in the next two offseasons Let’s assume Betances will get $3M raises each year going forward. I’m just pulling that number out of thin air for argument’s sake. A $3M base salary means his three arbitration years go $3M-$6M-$9M for $18M total. Start at $5M instead, and it’s $5M-$8M-$11M. That’s $24M total. And that’s the super simple version. A larger base salary means larger raises. That extra $2M in 2017 can turn into an extra $7M or $8M (or more) from 2017-19 quick.

This is why the Yankees went to hearing with Wang over a mere $600,000 in 2008. It adds up in future years. Do you know the last time the Yankees went to an arbitration hearing before Wang? It was with Mariano Rivera in 2000. He wanted $9.25M and the team countered with $7.25M. They went to a hearing, the Yankees won, and they saved a boatload of cash. And then they and Mo lived happily ever after. Arbitration hearings can be ugly — the team basically details the player’s shortcomings — but they don’t have to be the beginning of the end of the relationship either.

Also, I have to point out it’s not only the Yankees and Betances who have something on the line here. This deal could change the reliever pay scale dramatically going forward. We’re already seeing some free agent setup men get closer money (Miller, Darren O’Day, etc.). Betances could extend that salary growth to arbitration-eligible players now. We’ve seen teams use their top relievers as setup men to intentionally avoid saves and keep arbitration salaries down. Dellin can break the salary mold.

Arbitration hearings take place in mid-February, so the Yankees and Betances have several weeks to come to an agreement. I have no idea whether they’ll actually get a deal done. Dellin’s camp may think their case is airtight and they can get that $5M after being renewed at the minimum last year. I thought the Yankees would end up going to a hearing with Chapman last year given the $4.1M gap in their filing figures and that didn’t happen, so who knows?

Either way, Betances is going to end up with what sure appears to be a record salary for a first year arbitration-eligible non-closing reliever. His floor right now is $3M. That’s the worst he can do in 2017, and that’s more than any other setup man I can find at the same point of their careers. Dellin and his agent are thinking bigger though. They want closer money. And if they succeed, it will change the reliever pay scale. The MLBPA is rooting hard for Betances right now. There’s a lot of the line.

Fan Confidence Poll: January 16th, 2016

2016 Season Record: 84-78 (680 RS, 702 RA, 79-83 pythag. record), 5.0 GB of postseason spot

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Weekend Open Thread

One week closer to Spring Training. That’s what I keep telling myself. One week closer to Spring Training. This offseason has been a major drag. There’s just nothing going on. Not with the Yankees and not with any other teams either. I knew things would be slow because of the thin free agent class, but man, I didn’t think it would be this slow. Hurry up, pitchers and catchers.

Friday: Here is your open thread for the night. The Rangers, Islanders, Devils, and Nets are all in action this evening. And that’s about it. Nothing else going on. Talk about anything but politics or religion.

Saturday: This is the open thread again. The NFL playoffs continue today with Seahawks-Falcons (4:30pm ET on FOX) and Patriots-Texans (8pm ET on CBS). The Rangers and Islanders are playing too, and there’s more college basketball than anyone could humanly watch on the schedule too. Enjoy.

Sunday: For the last time, this is the open thread. Today’s NFL playoff games are Packers-Cowboys (4:30pm ET on FOX) and Steelers-Chiefs (8pm ET on NBC). Hopefully one of them is actually compelling. The Knicks are playing right now and both the Devils and Nets are playing later tonight. There are two college hoops games too. Have at it.

The Importance of Being Headley

(Norm Hall/Getty)
(Norm Hall/Getty)

Across the annals of the internet, I have a long history of championing Yankee causes that many would consider lost and a half. Going back about ten years or more, there is definitely evidence somewhere out there of me claiming Chris Britton was getting the shaft and deserved more of a look in pinstripes.  In 2014 and 2015, I was trying to convince–in my mind it was more reminding–everyone that Stephen Drew really wasn’t that bad. Last year, I beat the drum for Chase Headley despite his woeful start to the season. Even with a bounceback that ended up with him posting a (relatively, for where he started) respectable 92 wRC+, I’m sure I’ll have to beat that same drum this year, as Headley likely doesn’t have a lot of support from the fans right now. Despite that, Headley is an important piece for the 2017 Yankees.

As the team’s third baseman, he’s really on an island. At every other position, the Yankees have some form of a legitimate replacement. Should Didi Gregorius go down at short, Starlin Castro can slide over. Should Castro get hurt, there’s Rob Refsnyder. Greg Bird can be replaced by Tyler Austin or even Matt Holliday in a pinch. Gary Sanchez has Austin Romine to back him up. Aaron Hicks and the glut of minor league outfielders stand in reserve should someone out there get hurt as well. Headley, and maybe Holliday, is the only position player the Yankees don’t have a credible back up for at this point. This is all leaving aside the fact that Headley helps Didi make up a strong defensive left side of the infield, adding value with his glove that’s hard to replace at the hot corner.

At the plate, Headley brings patience, something the Yankees have lacked of late, putting up above average walk rates in each of his years with the Yankees. There’s also Headley’s place in the lineup. No matter where he hits, he’ll be of some importance. If he hits second, as Mike suggested earlier, well, that speaks for itself. Even if he hits ninth in that set up, he plays an important role in turning the lineup over and setting the table for the top of the order. It’s not likely, though, that he’ll bat second or ninth, though, since I–like Mike–doubt the Yankees will actually split Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury in the lineup. The way I see it, the lineup will likely shake out like this:

  1. Gardner
  2. Ellsbury
  3. Sanchez
  4. Holliday
  5. Bird
  6. Didi
  7. Castro
  8. Headley
  9. Judge

I’d rather see Judge bat behind Headley because Headley can give him some sort of ‘reverse protection,’ if you will. By using his ability to draw walks to get on base ahead of Judge, Headley can insure that Judge may see some better pitches and help artificially bring down the big guy’s strikeout numbers and make best use of his power numbers.

Chase Headley, clutch Yankee. (Photo credit: Richard Perry/The New York Times
(Richard Perry/The New York Times

To say a team’s starting third baseman is important is to state the obvious. However, even on a team without a ton (any?) star power, it’d be possible for Chase Headley to fly under the radar in 2017. A lot of focus will be on the young bats and the bullpen trio, but make no mistake that his role on this team is important. He’s a top quality defender with a patient eye at the plate, which can (and hopefully will) ease things for those around him in the lineup.

Saturday Links: Severino, Breslow, Gardner, Headley

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

Five weeks from today, Yankees position players are due to report to Tampa for Spring Training. Pitchers and catchers have to report four days prior to that. Spring Training is slowly approaching. Emphasis on slowly. Anyway, here are some nuggets to check out.

Yankees believe Severino is too bulky

Earlier this week, Brian Cashman the Bryan Hoch the Yankees believe Luis Severino may have added too much muscle last winter, so they suggested he work on his flexibility this offseason. I remember seeing videos of Severino last offseason (this one, specifically) and thinking he was noticeably bigger. There is such a thing as too big though. Too much muscle can limit flexibility and affect mechanics.

Now, that said, I don’t think Severino’s issues last season were solely a product of him adding too much muscle. Concerns about his overall command have lingered since his prospect days. He also lost feel for his changeup, and that can happen to anyone, not just a kid who may have bulked up too much. Hopefully Severino trims down a bit and is better able to streamline his delivery going forward. That should help his command.

Yankees will be among teams to scout Breslow

According to Peter Gammons, the Yankees will be among the teams on hand for veteran reliever Craig Breslow’s workout on January 23rd. New York is said to be looking for a lefty reliever, so Breslow fits. The veteran southpaw had a 4.50 ERA (3.93 FIP) in 14 innings with the Marlins last year before being released at midseason. He hooked on with the Rangers and spent a few weeks with their Triple-A affiliate after that.

Interestingly enough, Gammons says Breslow is working out with Rich Hill this offseason, and like Hill, he’s dropped his arm slot and is working to increase the spin rate of his breaking ball. That’s basically how Hill went from independent league player to ace-caliber starter two years ago. He dropped his arm slot, and, more importantly, he starting spinning the hell out of his breaking ball. Hill is essentially a curveball pitcher with a show-me fastball now. That isn’t to say Breslow will have as much success as Hill, but when you’re nearing the end of your career and want to hang around, it’s worth trying.

Cashman doesn’t expect Gardner or Headley trade

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

Not surprisingly, Cashman told Hoch and Brendan Kuty he does not expect to trade Brett Gardner or Chase Headley before Opening Day. The Yankees have rejected all the offers they’ve received so far, I’m guessing because they were of the “eat a bunch a money and take this fringe prospect” variety. “I think the teams that had interested took their best shot,” said the GM.

The Yankees can and probably will continue to gauge the market for Gardner and Headley in Spring Training. Another team could lose an outfielder and/or their third baseman to injury, creating a need. Then again, how often does that actually happen? We talk about that possibility every year and yet it rarely happens. Even when teams do suffer those major injuries, then tend to stay in-house rather than make a desperation trade. Eh, we’ll see. The Gardner situation is far more pressing than the Headley situation given the Yankees’ young outfield depth.

Mailbag: Cashman, Teixeira, Torres, Darvish, Sheffield

Got 15 questions for you in this week’s mailbag, though I tried to keep the answers short. Didn’t always succeed. RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com is the place to send us questions. The email address is perpetually sitting in the sidebar in case you ever forget.

The Judge and the GM. (Presswire)
The Judge and the GM. (Presswire)

Daniel asks: What do you think Brian Cashman‘s legacy will be, and how much will it ultimately depend on this “transition” period carrying the Yankees to another championship?

Man, I have no idea. Cashman is very underrated as a GM. He gets overlooked because of the team’s payroll, and any success the Yankees have had under him has been written off as a product of the budget (or because someone else built the team). We’re not idiots. We know money doesn’t guarantee success. Look at the Phillies and the Angels. Or even the Red Sox. How many times have they finished in last place the last few years? Money helps, but it ain’t everything.

This rebuild may define Cashman’s legacy more than anything that’s happened over the last 20 years. If it succeeds, he’ll finally get some recognition as one of the game’s most successful executives. If it fails, well then it’ll only reinforce the notion he needs a big payroll to win. Cashman has been, by a pretty big margin, the most consistently successful big market GM. His worst teams have won 84 games, and he was able to field those clubs while still building the farm system into what it is today. Cashman’s legacy is complicated. Personally, I think he doesn’t get anywhere near the credit he deserves.

Ross asks: I feel like the Yankees minor league pitching isn’t getting enough love. Here are top 6 teams in ERA in full-season ball for all leagues.

minor-league-era

The top 6 teams came from 6 different leagues (which surprised me), but all four of the Yankees full-season teams finished in the top 6 of 120 full-season teams. This is with their top 2 pitching prospects (Sheffield and Kaprielian) barely pitching for the Yankees in 2016.  What do you think the state of the Yankee minor league pitching is and if the stats are misleading?

The stats are misleading a bit. I definitely wouldn’t use ERA, either on the team level or individual level, to gauge prospect status. A Diamondbacks affiliate is third on that list and their system is terrible. The Yankees did have a ton of great individual performers this year — they had two of the top four and five of the top 17 minor leaguers in ERA, not counting the Mexican League (min. 100 IP) — and that’s awesome. Let’s not confuse great performance for great prospects though.

Also, keep in mind New York’s four full season affiliates all play in pitcher friendly home ballparks. Every one of them. George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa is the closest to a neutral park. Arm & Hammer Park in Trenton can be brutal for hitters, especially lefties, at night when the breeze is blowing in from the Delaware River beyond right field. That’s why what Greg Bird did there (.256/.366/.484 with 13 homers in 76 games) was so impressive.

Don’t get me wrong, the Yankees do have a lot of really good pitching prospects. James Kaprielian and Justus Sheffield are the headliners, but others like Jordan Montgomery and Chance Adams are future big leaguers too. Domingo Acevedo and Albert Abreu are the high upside plays. The low team ERAs in 2016 probably speaks to the farm system’s pitching depth to some degree, but I wouldn’t glance at that leaderboard and confuse it for prospect status. The Yankees have some good pitching prospects, but the team ERAs would lead you to believe they’re deep in top arms, and they’re not.

Chris asks: There are many reports about the Rangers and the Cubs being the leading suitors for Tyson Ross. Shouldn’t the Yankees be in that group as well? I know he was injured most of last year, but assuming he comes back to full strength (big assumption), he fits the bill of a young starter who would be controlled for more than a year to slot into the rotation, right?

Ross isn’t under control for more than a year. He’ll be eligible for free agency after the 2017 season. And he’s not that young either. He turns 30 in April. That said, of course the Yankees should be in the mix for him. They could use more pitching and Ross theoretically offers more upside than the Jon Nieses and Doug Fisters of the world. Chances are these guys are all low cost one-year contract candidates. Ross can potentially bring the greatest reward.

Personally, I’ve never been a huge Tyson Ross fan, so if the Yankees miss out, I’m not going to lose much sleep over it. He walks a ton of batters, he throws an extreme amount of sliders, and his delivery is ugly as sin. A breakdown felt inevitable. Last year’s shoulder injury — the injury that sidelined him after Opening Day, not the Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery he had in October — may have been the beginning of that breakdown. If he’s willing to come to New York on a one-year deal, cool. If not, eh, there are other fish in the sea.

Greg asks: Do you think Mark Teixeira gets no. 25 retired for him or a plaque in Monument Park?

Nah. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yankees reissue No. 25 as soon as this year. Maybe they’ll give it to Clint Frazier in Spring Training. I know Teixeira was part of a World Series team, but if No. 25 wasn’t retired for Jason Giambi, it sure as heck won’t be for Teixeira. Teixeira was a good player and a fun dude for several years. I’m guessing he’ll have a blast at Old Timers’ Day. He’s not Monument Park worthy in my opinion though. Good Yankee, for sure, but not an all-time great.

Gleyber. (Presswire)
Gleyber. (Presswire)

Rubaiyat asks: Would it be a better idea to move Gleyber Torres to 3b or another position and keep Didi? Or keep him at short and trade Didi for prospects?

I’m going to take the easy way out and say “worry about this when the time comes.” Who knows what the landscape will be when Torres is actually ready to help the Yankees. That’s at least one year away, possibly two. Manny Machado could be a Yankee by then, in which case putting Gleyber at short and trading Didi Gregorius makes sense. Or maybe Gregorius continues to refine his offensive game and blossoms into a .290/.330/.450 hitter with 25+ homers annually, in which case Torres becomes the trade bait. Patience. This isn’t worth thinking about now.

Greg asks: A lot of prospect lists have Blake Rutherford as a top 5 prospect in the org. Does he have enough perceived value to headline a trade for an ace? I don’t necessarily want to see him go, I’m just curious how prospect ratings correspond with trade value.

I learned a while ago that prospect rankings and trade value rankings are not the same thing. Rutherford is a great-looking prospect, but I can’t remember the last time a rookie ball kid was the headliner in a trade for an impact big leaguer. Prospects closer to the big leagues have more trade value than the kids in the low minors. Does that mean Dietrich Enns has more trade value than Rutherford? Of course not. Talent matters. Prospect rankings are a measure of potential. Trade value is real world value, and teams have to consider the risk of a prospect not making it. Rutherford has a ton of ability, but he’s so far away from MLB and there’s still so much time for things to go wrong. That risk likely prevents him headlining a package for, say, Jose Quintana.

Jacob asks: What would Gleybar Torres have to become for the Cubs to regret the trade? Or does the ring mean they will never regret it?

I can’t pretend to know what last season was like for a Cubs fan. I’m spoiled as hell. I grew up with my favorite team winning championships left and right. So many Cubs fans waited their entire lives to see not just a World Series win, but a pennant. Just a pennant. Hopefully we’ll be able to look back at some point and determine this was a lopsided trade in favor of the Yankees according to WAR or whatever. I’m guessing the vast majority of Cubs fans don’t care one bit. This has a chance to be the mother of all win-win trades.

Alex asks: Unless the Yankees are in serious contention by the 2017 trade deadline, do you think Betances is all but a goner? It seems silly to keep him when you already have Chapman and could get another Frazier/Torres like prospect and more in return.

It’s going to depend on a lot of things. How far out of the race are the Yankees? How are the kids looking? Are we seeing progress, enough that serious contention in 2018 looks likely, or are they all crashing and burning? How does Dellin Betances himself look? I’m guessing one of the reasons the Yankees went ahead with their deadline sell-off last year was the fact they knew they’d have a chance to sign a top reliever in the offseason. Wade Davis is far and away the best reliever slated to hit free agency next year. After him it’s, uh, Addison Reed? And is spending huge for another reliever a smart move anyway given the luxury tax situation?

I am in no way opposed to trading Betances (or pretty much anyone on the roster at this point). The Yankees very clearly value having multiple dominant relievers in the bullpen though, and if they don’t feel confident in their ability to replace Betances in some way prior to 2018 — remember, they tried to sign Chapman to an extension before trading him! — they might not be willing to part with Dellin at the deadline. A lot of factors are going to go into any decision to trade Betances, either at the deadline or at some point after that.

Frederick asks: Any chance the Yanks go for someone like Brandon McCarthy or Anibal Sanchez in a salary dump type of move?

I think they’d just sign a free agent instead. You’ll end up with similar expected production and the cost figures to be lower too. Why taken on Sanchez and his ZiPS projected 4.77 ERA (4.33 FIP) at $16.8M when you could sign, say, Doug Fister and his ZiPS projected 4.53 ERA (4.73 FIP) for something like $6M? Unless the Tigers eat a ton of money and take a non-prospect in return, I wouldn’t bother. (And why would they do that?) Just sign a free agent. Same thing with McCarthy, who has two years left on the deal. I wrote a Scouting The Market post about him earlier this winter, before it became clear all these iffy reclamation project starters would still be looking for jobs in mid-January.

Bird. (Jim Rogash/Getty)
Bird. (Jim Rogash/Getty)

Jonathan asks: We hear all about catchers, pitchers, middle infielders, and well, Andujar…but very little about first base beyond Bird/Austin. Is it just a PR thing or are the lower level 1B prospects not as good relative to the prospects at other positions?

First base prospects are a weird group. Most first basemen land at the position because they couldn’t play elsewhere. Joey Votto was a catcher. Miguel Cabrera was a shortstop. Edwin Encarnacion and Chris Davis were third basemen. So was Teixeira. Greg Bird was a catcher and so was Tyler Austin back in the day. MLB.com’s top 100 list includes only four pure first basemen at the moment, which is pretty normal. That’s not an unusually low number.

As for the Yankees, their best first base prospect beyond Bird (technically no longer a prospect) and Austin (still qualifies as a prospect) is, uh, Mike Ford? Maybe Miguel Flames if he can’t hack it behind the plate. Or Dermis Garcia if the hot corner doesn’t work out. The Yankees, like every other team, focus on up-the-middle talent because those positions are hardest to fill. There’s always a Chris Carter (former third baseman) or Mike Napoli (former catcher) sitting in free agency these days. There aren’t many middle infielders or top notch catchers though. The Yankees aren’t deep in first base prospects at all and in no way is that a problem in my opinion.

Seth asks: Which baby bomber do you personally think will outperform their expectations in 2017?

Aaron Judge seems obvious to me. For some reason I feel like most people expect him to hit .175 with about 275 strikeouts in 2016. Judge doesn’t get enough credit for his pure hit tool. Yeah, he’s going to strike out, that kinda happens when you’re 6-foot-7 with a huge strike zone and long arms, but I could totally see Judge hitting .230 or so with 25+ bombs in 2017. People will complain about that, I’m sure, but for a dude in his first full season in the show? Sign me up. Judge will be a good litmus test for the rebuild. Let’s see how patient fans really are willing to be.

Bob asks: In light of the Yankees need for starting pitching in 2018 and thereafter, wouldn’t it be better to force the development of several young pitchers in 2017 as opposed to signing a one year retread who only delays the inevitable?

Nope. You can’t force development. That’s when bad things happen. Running a young pitcher who clearly isn’t ready to be successful at the MLB level out there every fifth day is counterproductive. Maybe the Yankees won’t run into this problem with any of their young starters next season. That would be amazing. And if that’s the case, the Yankees aren’t going to let some veteran starter on a one-year contract stand in the way. There’s no such thing as too much pitching, especially when you’re trying to break in several young starters at once. I’d rather have the depth and not need it than need it and not have it.

Erick asks: What are your thoughts on Yu Darvish a year from now? He has been pretty good since coming over. We don’t what will happen with Tanaka, could we have two Japanese pitchers in 2018? Even three if you go completely crazy and imagine Otani getting posted.

I have a hard time thinking the Rangers will actually let Darvish leave when he becomes a free agent next year. If they do, it would kinda worry me. What do they know that we don’t? Also, I wouldn’t get my hopes up expecting the Yankees to spend big on a free agent next offseason, not with the plan to get under the luxury tax threshold looming. The time to get Darvish was five years ago when he was in his mid-20s. He’ll be 31 when he hits free agency next year, and have Tommy John surgery in his not too distant past. Meh. Call me crazy, but I’d rather spend that money on Masahiro Tanaka.

Haven't used this one in a while. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
Haven’t used this one in a while. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Luiz asks: Can we compare Sheffield with Banuelos? Both are southpaw pitchers listed at 5-foot-10, with big stuff, clean medical history, etc.

Manny Banuelos was a better prospect than Justus Sheffield at the same age. The key differences were their changeups and command. Banuelos had a phenomenal changeup and his command was big league caliber when he was a 20-year-old. For whatever reason that command disappeared when Banuelos reached Double-A in 2011 and it never came back. And he got hurt. A lot. Banuelos hurt his back and his elbow in 2012 and he hasn’t stopped getting hurt since. Sheffield and Banuelos are similar in that they’re short lefties, but there aren’t too many similarities beyond that. Banuelos was much more advanced as a prospect at the same age.

Michael asks: Among the contenders for the 4/5 spot in the rotation, who in your opinion needs more time at Triple-A? I agree that a de La Rosa or a Brett Anderson would do the team good, but I’m wondering if they might really need a guy like that, or if they’re at a stage where they can let Cessa/Green/Mitchell figure it out in the majors.

Probably Luis Severino. His changeup vanished last year and his command was pretty bad most of the summer. Luis Cessa seems most MLB ready to me. He has four pitches (and actually uses them) and is willing to pound the zone (4.9% walk rate in 2016). He might throw too many strikes. Cessa could possibly benefit from expanding the zone when he’s ahead in the count. That could help his strikeout and homer rates. I’m not really sure what more Bryan Mitchell can take from Triple-A at this point. I think his chances of landing the bullpen long-term are pretty high because he just hasn’t been able to develop a changeup, but he should be pretty good there given his fastball/curveball combo.