Via Jack Curry: Joe Girardi confirmed that right-hander David Phelps will start the first game of the Grapefruit League schedule this Saturday. Adam Warren will start Sunday’s game against the Blue Jays, the first televised game of the spring. CC Sabathia will not make a start the first time through the rotation and I guess there’s a chance Phil Hughes won’t either thanks to his bout of back stiffness.
The Need for Speed
The Yankees lost quite a bit of power this offseason thanks to Nick Swisher, Russell Martin, and Eric Chavez signing elsewhere as free agents. If they’re lucky, Ichiro Suzuki and the catching tandem will combine to replace the 16 homers Chavez hit by himself last season, nevermind the 45 they’re losing in Swisher and Martin. That power is gone, there is no more offseason left to replace it, so the Yankees are going to have to score runs in other ways this summer.
“Well, I anticipate (the offense is) going to be different, because we don’t quite have the homerun hitters we’ve had in the past,” said Joe Girardi last week. “So we’re going to have to find different ways to score runs. I think when you look at our club this year, there’s more speed. You have one outfielder who has the potential of stealing 50-60 bases if he stays healthy the whole year. So I think our offense is going to be different, but I believe that we’re going to score runs. It’s just going to be in a different fashion than it has been in the past.”
As Girardi mentioned, speed on the bases is going to more important this summer. Brett Gardner is returning from his elbow injury and he’s averaged 43 steals per 150 games played throughout his big league career. Ichiro has stolen no fewer than 26 bases in any of his 12 big league seasons and Curtis Granderson has a handful of 20+ steal seasons to his credit. He only stolen ten bases (in 13 attempts) last year for whatever reason, but hopefully he runs a little more in his contract year. Given his ankle injury, I wouldn’t count on Derek Jeter to steal any bases. I’m sure he’ll grab a few, but they’re a bonus. Eduardo Nunez might swipe a few off the bench as well.
MLB and the player’s union eliminated the fake-to-third, throw-to-first pickoff move this winter, and Orioles manager Buck Showalter told Jon Morosi that he expects stolen base totals to jump as a result. “The things (that move) keeps from happening were huge … It shuts down the first and third. A right-handed pitcher had to have that move. Otherwise, you’re giving up 90-feet all the time,” said Showalter. The timing works out well for the Yankees, but they’ll still need to actually take advantage of the rule change. That’s easier said than done, but I think a brilliant player like Ichiro will figure it out. Gardner … who knows.
Speed goes beyond stealing bases as well. Going first-to-third on a single, advancing on a wild pitch, all that stuff incrementally improves a team’s chances of scoring. Gardner, Granderson, Ichiro, and Nunez are the obvious candidates to pull that off, Jeter as well when healthy. Otherwise though, the lineup will be full of … wait for it … basecloggers like Mark Teixeira, Travis Hafner, and Kevin Youkilis. Those three are going to have to pick their spots, but the other guys can and will have to push the envelope more than usual this summer.
All this speed stuff sounds great in theory, but the Yankees aren’t in the best division for carefree base-running. Jose Molina and Matt Wieters are both elite when it comes to shutting down the stolen base game, and outfielders like Jose Bautista, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Melky Cabrera all offer cannon arms that limit first-to-thirds, second-to-homes, and other base-running exploits. Shane Victorino on the other hand … don’t worry about him (part two!). It’s going to be very important for the Yankees — particularly first base coach Mick Kelleher and third base coach Robbie Thomson — to know the scouting reports this year. The margin of error is smaller thanks to the power decline.
Back in November, my pal Jackie Moore noted that stolen bases are more valuable right now than they have been in the past because of the overall offensive decline in the game. The Yankees have two premium base-stealing threats in Ichiro and Gardner (assuming he actually says healthy) and a nice secondary threat in Granderson. Nunez and Jeter are wildcards. It takes an awful lot of heady running to accumulate meaningful overall value on the bases — only one player (Mike Trout) was worth more than eight runs on the bases last year — but in real life, in actual game context, a stolen base or a first-to-third in the late innings of a close game is incredibly valuable. The Yankees will need to do more of that this year than they have at any point in the last 20 years or so.
Yankees land four on Baseball’s America Top 100 Prospects List
Baseball America published their annual (and long-awaited) list of the best 100 prospects in baseball today, a list that is predictably topped by Rangers SS Jurickson Profar. Unlike last year, when their were two legitimate number one candidates in Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, Profar is the clear top prospect this year. Orioles RHP Dylan Bundy and Cardinals OF Oscar Taveras round out the top three.
Like last year, the Yankees placed four players on the top 100. OF Mason Williams ranked the highest at #32, and was followed by C Gary Sanchez (#57), OF Slade Heathcott (#63), and OF Tyler Austin (#77). Those four were ranked #35, #18, #57, and #52, respectively, by Keith Law earlier this month, so Baseball America isn’t quite as high on them. Here is the publication’s top ten prospects list for reference.
The crew at Baseball America slapped 20-80 scouting scale grades on each of the top 100 prospects in a subscriber-only feature, which is nice and easy for the Yankees since they’re all position players.
Bat | Power | Speed | Defense | Arm | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Williams | 60 | 60 | 70 | 70 | 50 |
Sanchez | 50 | 65 | 30 | 45 | 60 |
Heathcott | 50 | 60 | 70 | 60 | 60 |
Austin | 65 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
Those are future grades, not present, meaning the players are expected to grow into that kind of power, etc. down the line. Three of the four project to have five average-or-better tools down the line, which is pretty amazing. Baseball America may be high on Austin’s right field defense and speed and a little low on Sanchez’s bat, but they’re the experts. Still a nice collection of tools, especially in the hit and power departments.
The Yankees ranked 11th in Baseball America’s preliminary farm system rankings back in January, and the official list will be released in the coming weeks. There haven’t been many big farm system-altering trades since the preliminary rankings came out, so I don’t expect them to change much. As I wrote in my Top 30 List a few weeks ago, the Yankees have a top-heavy farm system with quite a big drop-off between these four and everyone else. Four top-100 guys is still pretty strong though, not many organizations can match that.
The Biggest Loss of the Offseason
The Yankees downgraded their offense this offseason, most notably by allowing Nick Swisher and Russell Martin to sign elsewhere as free agents. The drop-off from those two guys to their 2013 replacements is in the neighborhood of two wins apiece, and that’s being generous to 39-year-old Ichiro Suzuki. It’s a lot of power and patience to replace, but the biggest offensive loss of the winter might not have even been an everyday player. Valuable part-timer Eric Chavez signed elsewhere as well.
All told, the 35-year-old Chavez produced a .281/.348/.496 (126 wRC+) line with 16 homers in 313 plate appearances for New York last summer. He played 64 games (50 starts) at third base thanks in part to Alex Rodriguez’s hand injury, but he also managed 19 games at DH and another ten at first. Chavez made it easy to forget that he hit .263/.320/.356 (80 wRC+) with two homers in 175 plate appearances a year ago, when he was tolerable at best and easily replaceable at worst. To say his production was unexpected last year would be an understatement.
Chavez signed a one-year contract with the Diamondbacks during the Winter Meetings, taking a $3M guarantee to move closer to his Phoenix home. The Yankees had interest in retaining him, especially once news of A-Rod’s hip injury broke, but ultimately the two sides did not have any substantive talks according to Ken Davidoff. Kevin Youkilis was signed to take over third base on a full-time basis, but the Bombers never did get around to finding a Chavez replacement. The closest they’ve come is Dan Johnson, a third baseman in theory who took a minor league deal.
Now here’s the thing: the Yankees were never getting Chavez back, at least not the Chavez they had last year. Even if they had outbid the D’Backs and re-signed him, there’s no way they should have expected him to hit like he did last summer. Furthermore, they shouldn’t have expected him to stay that healthy again either. Chavez had a stint on the 7-day concussion DL last year and sat out a few games for various aches and pains, but that was it. He was available far more often than not, and given his lengthy medical history, it would have been quite foolish to expect him to do it again. Repeating that kind of production and durability is certainly possible, just unlikely.
The post title is a overly dramatic, but losing Chavez is a pretty big loss for the Yankees. I had no problem with letting him walk under the right circumstances at the outset of the offseason, mostly because I figured it was better to get rid of him a year too soon rather than a year too late. Those right conditions did not include a major hip injury for A-Rod and not bringing in a viable alternative, however. Given the replacement level catching tandem, Joe Girardi is going to need a legitimate threat off the bench to pinch hit in late games. Chavez, the 2011 version, would have been perfect. The Yankees had the right player in the right role, just in the wrong year.
Yankees announce single-game ticket sale dates
Single-game tickets for the 2013 season go on sale Tuesday, March 5th at 10am ET according to the Yankees. The Mastercard pre-sale will take place from February 27th through March 3rd. Click here for the pre-sale and click here for other ticket deals. Of course, we recommend RAB Tickets for all your ticketing needs.
Open Thread: 2/18 Camp Notes
With position players now in camp, the Yankees held their first full squad workout of 2013 today. Here’s the latest from Tampa…
- Chad Jennings has the day’s batting practice groups, which include pretty much everyone. It was a light day for the pitchers, with Hiroki Kuroda the only projected big leaguer to throw. He didn’t face hitters, it was just a bullpen session.
- Derek Jeter ran on the field for the first time since ankle surgery — he had been running on a treadmill — and did some defensive drills, including some side-to-side movements. He did not run the bases. Eduardo Nunez, meanwhile, made at least two errors during infield drills, so hooray for that. [Dan Barbarisi, Jennings, Sweeny Murti & Mark Feinsand]
- Joe Girardi gave his annual start-of-camp speech, saying the message is “let’s get better … I mean, that’s the bottom line. Let’s get prepared and let’s get better. That’s what we’re here for.” [Bryan Hoch]
- First official batting practice homer of the new season? It belongs to new DH Travis Hafner. What does it mean? Nothing. It’s baseball. [Hoch]
This is your open thread for the night. None of the local sports teams are in action, so you’re on your own for entertainment. You folks know how these things work by now, so have at it.
The Yankees’ other impending free agent
Spring Training is less than a week old, but we’ve already spent an awful lot of time talking about Robinson Cano’s impending free agency. It’s going to be a major story from now right up until he signs his new contract, either with the Yankees or another team. We’ve also talked very briefly about Phil Hughes and Curtis Granderson, two important Yankees who will also become free agents next winter. Joba Chamberlain and Boone Logan have been free agency afterthoughts so far, but they are important pieces of the bullpen.
Those five players do not represent the team’s only notable impending free agents, however. Joe Girardi is a lame duck manager at the moment, entering the final year of the three-year contract he signed during the 2010-2011 offseason. It will be his sixth season with the team and his success is undeniable: one World Championship, two other ALCS appearances, three division titles, four postseason berths and four 95+ win seasons. As expected, Girardi has said all the right things and handled his lame duck status well so far.
“My faith is that God is going to put me where he wants me,” he said last week. “That’s what I believe. I don’t worry about where I’m going to be next year. We’re probably going to get into this later, so I’ll say it, we talk about payroll – I’m not worried about next year’s payroll. I’m worried about the next 162 games and getting to the playoffs and getting to the World Series. That’s my concern. That’s what I worry about. I think in the game of baseball you get a lot of practice only worrying about that day or that year as a player, as a coach, as a manager, because you never know what it’s going to be. When I signed, I was called up in 1989 and thought I’d be a Cub the rest of my life. Lo and behold, I was with three other teams, back with the Cubs. I was all over the place. So you get used to not worrying about next year, and I’m not worried about it.”
As I wrote in our Season Review, I don’t think Girardi had a great year in 2012, at least compared to his first four years on the job. He has his annoying tendencies — specifically ill-timed intentional walks and sacrifice bunts in the early-to-mid-innings — like every other manager, but he typically does a very good job running his bullpen and keeping his older players rested. There haven’t been any whispers of clubhouse problems — though the team does go out of the way to acquire good makeup players — over the last five years, so Girardi’s clubhouse skills should be considered a plus as well.
Now, that said, big league manager is one of those jobs with a relatively short shelf life. Unless the guy has immediate and unprecedented success like Joe Torre, the odds of him sticking around for 10+ years are tiny. Only eight managers have been with their current team longer than Girardi, and there are more than a few teams who have cycled through multiple managers over the last five seasons. Managers typically lose effectiveness when they’ve been around too long, mostly because their style becomes routine and players get a little too comfortable (i.e. Red Sox and Terry Francona). I don’t see any reason to think that’s happened with Girardi’s team yet.
The Yankees have a very wide range of possible outcomes this year, and how they finish will inevitably impact the decision whether to retain Girardi. Everything could click and they would win 95+ games or everyone could break down and they could finish in fourth place. Girardi would clearly be retained — or at least offered the opportunity to stay — should the former happen, but I don’t think the latter would automatically result in his dismissal. It depends why they finished in fourth, really. Did all the old guys who are injury risks get hurt, or did important players underperform? Only one of those can really be charged to the skipper, and even that isn’t cut and dry.
The last time the Yankees needed a manager, they only interviewed three candidates: Girardi, Don Mattingly, and Tony Pena. Brian Cashman said afterwards they interviewed only those three because they were familiar with the Yankees and the market they play in, which is why no outside candidates were brought in. Outside of Pena, pitching coach Larry Rothschild (first manager in Devil Rays history), and I guess Mattingly (contract is up after this season), I don’t know who else the team could bring in to meet that “familiar with New York” criteria. Then again, they could always change course.
Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner hand-picked Girardi for the job following the 2007 season, so I have a hard time thinking they’ll replace him next winter for something less that an outright clubhouse mutiny. He’s a fine manager — I don’t think he’s top five or even top ten, but clearly better than average in terms of on-field decisions — and has done a better job of handling the media over the years. Girardi could always choose to leave on his own for another job, but he didn’t even let the Cubs make him an offer three years ago. If he didn’t walk away for his hometown team, I can’t imagine what it would take to lure him away. Girardi is already one of the two or three highest paid managers in the game, so that’s not an issue.
Obviously the Cano, Hughes, and Granderson free agencies are much more important than the manager’s, especially since their salaries will be impacted by the plan to get under the $189M luxury tax threshold next year. The skipper’s salary is separate and, theoretically, not limited by any kind of payroll threshold. Maybe the Yankees won’t want to pay their manager top dollar anymore — “I don’t believe you need a top-five salaried manager to win,” sure sounds like something Hal Steinbrenner would mutter these days — but I’ll believe that when I see it. Barring something completely unexpected, Girardi seems like a safe bet to re-sign with the team this winter and lead them for another three years or so.