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Yankeemetrics: Nightmare on River Ave. (April 1-3)

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(AP)

April 1: Three is justenough
Monday started out with the worst possible Not-April-Fools-Joke — Miguel Andujar and Giancarlo Stanton landing on the Injured List — but ended on a much better note with the Yankees gutting through a 3-1 win over the Tigers.

Milestone alert! This was the team’s 500th regular season win at the current Yankee Stadium. Those 500 wins are 13 more than any other team has at their home ballpark since 2009.

Gary Sanchez gave the Yankees an early lead with a solo homer in a the second inning, a monster blast that went 417 feet to straightaway center. It was his second longball in as many games, the first time he’s gone deep in back to back games since August 17-18, 2017. That’s right — he didn’t homer in consecutive games at all last year.

Brett Gardner added an insurance run in the fifth with a solo shot to right-center. The Yankees are now 26-4 since 2017 (including playoffs) when Gardy goes yardy. Gardner still has never hit a true opposite-field home run in his career; the closest he came was a blast over the wall slightly to the left of dead-center at Tropicana Field on May 11, 2015.

Domingo German was the star, pitching the definition of an “effectively wild” game with seven strikeouts, five walks, one hit and one run (unearned) allowed in five innings. Coupled with his brilliant six-inning, no-hit start last May, German delivered this #FunFact: He became the first pitcher in Yankees history with multiple starts of at least five innings and one or fewer hits allowed within his first 30 career MLB games.

(Newsday)

Terrific Tanaka, Terrible Offense
The Yankees trotted out a lineup that included three players who were supposed to be in Scranton this week, and the result was hardly a shocker — a 3-1 loss that included a pathetic offense and little support for another brilliant outing by Masahiro Tanaka.

Still, the Yankees had a chance to win, entering the ninth with the game knotted at one, because of the excellence of Tanaka. He scattered eight hits, struck out seven with no walks, and wiggled out of a few tough jams in coughing up just one run over 6 2/3 innings. Combined with his awesome Opening Day start, Tanaka earned our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series award:

He is the second Yankees pitcher ever to begin the season throwing back-to-back starts allowing no more than one earned run with five-plus strikeouts and no walks in each game (the other guy was Kevin Brown in 2004).

Tanaka filled up the strike zone, throwing 63 of his 87 pitches (72%) for strikes, and his command was stellar in netting 15 called strikes, freezing several Tigers on pitches in the middle of the plate:

Tanaka’s effort was wasted by the Yankees cold bats and a ninth inning implosion by Aroldis Chapman. While the fireballer’s velocity was up from his first two appearances of the season, it didn’t matter as his command was off and he got torched for two runs and three hits by the Tigers. We’ve seen Chapman struggle at times in pinstripes — but not to this extent.

The last time he allowed at least two runs and three hits and took the loss in a game was Sept. 7, 2012 in his first season as a closer with the Reds.

(New York Post)

Breezy day in the Bronx
The Yankees six-game season-opening homestand ended in the most miserable fashion, as they dropped the rubber game of the series to the Tigers, 2-1, and were the victims of a couple awful franchise records in doing so.

They struck out 18 times, the most ever in a nine-inning game by any Yankees team. They now have 65 strikeouts for the season, the highest total through six games in franchise history. Thirteen of those punchouts were by Tigers starter Matthew Boyd, who also limited them to just one run in 6 1/3 innings. Boyd is the first left-hander to strike out at least 13 Yankees and allow no more than one run in a regular-season game at Yankee Stadium (old or new). The only southpaw pitcher to do that in a playoff game in the Bronx was Cliff Lee in Game 3 of the 2010 ALCS.

The one of the few reasons for optimism in the Yankees disastrous 2-4 record has been their starting pitching, which has a 2.32 ERA and has given up one earned run or fewer five times. Only two other Yankee pitching staffs have begun the season with their starters allowing no more than one earned run in five of the first six games — it also happened last year and in 2002.

Overall, they’ve allowed 20 runs, the 33rd time in franchise history they’ve given up 20 or fewer runs in the first six games; twice before they also were below .500 thru six games: 1964 and 1977. The 1964 team went on win the AL pennant and lose in the World Series while the 1977 team was World Series champs.

Some more perspective (don’t jump off the cliff yet?) … This is the sixth time in the Wild Card era that the Yankees have started 2-4 or worse. The results of the previous five seasons it happened:

Missed Playoffs – 1 (2013)
Made Playoffs – 4 (2017, 2015, 2006, 1998)
Won Division – 2 (2006, 1998)
Won World Series – 1 (1998)

4/1 to 4/3 Series Preview: Detroit Tigers

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Gardenhire. (Presswire)

I was all ready to say one 2018 last place team is leaving the Bronx and another one is coming in, but then I realized the Tigers finished in third place last year despite going 64-98. Life in the AL Central must be nice. The second series of 2019 brings another rebuilding team to Yankee Stadium.

Their Story So Far

The Tigers did this year what the Yankees did last year — they opened the regular season with a four-game series split in Toronto. Detroit scored six runs in the four games, including four of the six yesterday, and still managed to win twice. The Tigers are relatively early in their rebuild, though they have much more talent than the Orioles team that just left town.

Injury Report

Michael Fulmer had Tommy John surgery a week ago and he’ll obviously miss this season and very likely the start of next season as well. That’s the big injury. Boy, did the Tigers miss their chance to trade Fulmer for maximum value or what? Regular center fielder JaCoby Jones is out with a shoulder issue and righty Drew VerHagen is dealing with arm fatigue. Jones and VerHagen are on the injured list and won’t return this series.

Projected Lineup

The Tigers had a rough time at the plate against the Blue Jays despite splitting the four-game set. Manager Ron Gardenhire joked his offense was driving him to “drink heavily,” and, as a team, the Tigers are hitting .156/.250/.230 (50 wRC+) in 152 plate appearances this year. That’s with the very good Nick Castellanos and Miguel Cabrera too. Yikes.

After using the same lineup the first three games and scoring two runs total, Gardenhire changed things up in their fourth game yesterday. They scored four runs and won, so I imagine they’ll use the same lineup tonight. That seems one like one of those typical baseball things, you know? Here’s the projected lineup:

  1. 3B Jeimer Candelario
  2. RF Nick Castellanos
  3. DH Miguel Cabrera
  4. 2B Niko Goodrum
  5. LF Christin Stewart
  6. 1B John Hicks
  7. CF Mikie Mahtook
  8. C Grayson Greiner
  9. SS Jordy Mercer

When Hicks starts behind the plate, Cabrera plays first base and someone else takes a turn at DH. Gordon Beckham and Dustin Peterson are the reserve infielder and outfielder, respectively. Candelario and Stewart are promising second tier prospects and Goodrum had a sneaky nice season as a super utility last year. A league average bat who can play pretty much anywhere is a valuable piece. Some 2018 Statcast numbers:

Again, Castellanos and Cabrera are the headliners here. Miggy is no longer the hitter he was in his prime, back when he was historically great, but I still don’t want to see him at the plate in a big spot. Cabrera took a pitch to the hand Saturday and was in obvious pain, then he came back and hit two balls to the wall Sunday. Dude can still mash.

Pitching Matchups

Monday (6:35pm ET): RHP Domingo German (vs. DET) vs. RHP Tyson Ross (vs. NYY)

Ross had a nice little bounceback season with the Padres and Cardinals last year, throwing 149.2 innings with a 4.15 ERA (4.39 FIP). The peripherals (19.2 K%, 9.8 BB%, 45.9 GB%) weren’t great, though considering Ross barely pitched the previous two years due to various arm injuries, that’s a good rebound season for a dude who looked done not too long ago. The Tigers gave him a one-year deal over the winter and he’ll make his first start of the season tonight.

The fastball isn’t as lively as it once was and the slider isn’t as sharp as it used to be, but Ross can really spin the ball, and he’s always thrown a ton of sliders. Even at his peak it was close to a 50/50 split with the fastball and slider. Because he doesn’t really have a changeup, left-handed batters have given Ross trouble throughout his career. The Yankees are short on quality lefty bats the moment though, so they aren’t really in position to capitalize.

Tuesday (6:35pm ET): RHP Masahiro Tanaka (vs. DET) vs. RHP Jordan Zimmermann (vs. NYY)

Last Thursday, Zimmermann did something that hadn’t been done in nearly 80 years: He had a perfect game bid through 6.2 innings on Opening Day. The last pitcher to do that was Hall of Famer Lefty Grove with the 1940 Red Sox. Zimmermann lost the perfect game and no-hit bid with two outs in the seventh and wound up with a no decision for his efforts. Bummer.

Opening Day notwithstanding, Zimmermann has not been the same guy since signing with the Tigers a few years ago. Last season he managed a 4.52 ERA (4.88 FIP) with a great walk rate (4.7%) but mediocre strikeout (20.0%) and ground ball (34.0%) rates in 131.1 innings, and that qualifies as his best season with Detroit. His platoon split has been quite small in recent years, which I guess is a plus.

It could easily be a one-start blip, though it’s worth noting Zimmermann went anti-fastball against the Blue Jays last week. He threw nearly twice as many curveballs and sliders (44) as fastballs (25). Zimmermann’s been more of a 50/50 fastball/breaking ball split guy the last few years. Could be a conscious change, could be small sample noise.

The biggest issue for Zimmermann the last few years has been the long ball. He’s been exceptionally home run prone. Last year it was 28 homers in 131.1 innings and the year before it was 29 homers in 160 innings. That’s a 1.76 HR/9 rate across two seasons. Last August Zimmermann stifled the Yankees for five innings then bam, three homers in the span of four batters in the sixth inning.

Last start (March 28th vs. Blue Jays): 7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K

Wednesday (4:05pm ET): TBA vs. LHP Matt Boyd (vs. NYY)

Boyd is a really interesting pitcher. I don’t know whether he’s actually good — last season he threw 170.1 innings with a 4.39 ERA (4.45 FIP) and unspectacular peripherals (22.4 K%, 7.4 BB%, 29.0 GB%) — but he is interesting. Last year Boyd intentionally threw with less velocity in an effort to disrupt timing, then, when that didn’t work, he went back to throwing hard. Look at this:

Over the years Boyd has also toyed with different arm angles and breaking balls. He’s mostly fastball/curveball/slider these days and he produced better than average hard contact rates last season. When he’s on, Boyd can be really difficult to square up. When he’s off, he’ll give up some dingers, and right-handed batters can give him a real hard time.

As for the Yankees, they have this spot listed as TBA, though it is expected to be Jonathan Loaisiga (or Loaisiga with an opener). CC Sabathia’s suspension ends after tomorrow’s game, at which point the Yankees will put him on the injured list and recall Loaisiga for this start. He didn’t have a good spring (16 IP, 13 H, 13 R, 12 ER, 7 BB, 18 K, 4 HR) and has never faced anyone on the Tigers, so at least Johnny Loaisiga will have the element of surprise going for him.

Boyd’s last start (March 29th vs. Blue Jays): 5 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 10 K

Bullpen Status

The Tigers and Blue Jays played eleven innings yesterday, yet Detroit’s bullpen is in good shape going into tonight’s series opener because Matt Moore (?!?) gave them seven strong innings. Huh. Here is Gardenhire’s relief unit:

  • Closer: RHP Shane Greene
  • Setup: RHP Joe Jimenez
  • Middle: RHP Victor Alcantara, RHP Buck Farmer, RHP Reed Garrett, LHP Blaine Hardy, LHP Daniel Stumpf
  • Long: LHP Daniel Norris

Jimenez, Farmer, Stumpf, and Greene all threw an inning yesterday and needed no more than 17 pitches to do it. None of them has pitched back-to-back days either. Norris threw 2.1 innings and 36 pitches on Saturday, so maybe the Tigers don’t want to go back to him just yet. Otherwise it seems everyone will be available tonight.

Greene is miscast as a closer — on a contending team, he’s maybe the fourth or fifth best reliever in the bullpen– but he has A+ stuff and is effectively wild. Jimenez was the selected to the All-Star Game as the token Tiger last year and has allowed 20 runs in 21.2 innings since, including three runs in an inning yesterday. Seems bad. Alcantara, Farmer, and Garrett have live, power arms. Garrett is the token Rule 5 Draft pick on the rebuilding team.

If the Yankees won’t sign Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, Nick Castellanos would be a good fallback plan

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(Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

As busy as the Yankees have been this offseason, they still have room in their lineup for one more bat. In a perfect world that bat would be Manny Machado or Bryce Harper. It’s not often you can sign a 26-year-old superstar caliber player. The Yankees seem content to let Harper and Machado go to other teams. It’s disappointing. It really is.

Machado and Harper are not the only bats on the market. Mike Moustakas and Marwin Gonzalez continue to sit in free agency, though they qualify as good hitters more than great hitters. I’m sure the Mariners would love to unload Edwin Encarnacion and his $25M salary. He was a devastating hitter not too long ago. There are bats available. For sure.

Among those available bats is Tigers right fielder Nick Castellanos, who authored a .298/.354/.500 (130 wRC+) batting line with 23 homers as the only real threat in Detroit’s lineup last year (Miguel Cabrera missed 124 games to injury). The Tigers are expected to trade Castellanos, an impending free agent, at some point this year. His agent told Anthony Fenech he hopes the trade happens soon.

“He wants to win and understands the direction of the franchise right now is to procure prospects,” Castellanos’ agent, David Meter, said Tuesday night. “That being said, he would rather start with his new club going into spring training.”

I get why Castellanos wants to be traded as soon as possible — it must absolutely stink knowing you’re going to traded but have no idea where to or when it’ll happen — but the Tigers are not obligated to move him now. They’ll wait for the right deal, then act. Castellanos’ agent voiced his opinion for the record and that’s that. The Tigers will do what’s best for them when the time is right.

The Yankees already have four outfielders (Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton) for the three outfield spots and DH, plus Clint Frazier and the maybe possibly but probably not healthy Jacoby Ellsbury, so adding another outfielder is not a priority. The Yankees could make it work though, and Castellanos is really good. Let’s talk this out a bit.

1. Castellanos does what the Yankees like. As previously noted, the Yankees love players who hit the ball hard and hit the ball in the air. Last season Castellanos had the sixth highest hard contact rate (47.9%) and the 21st lowest ground ball rate (35.4%) among the 140 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. His Statcast profile:

Outs above average is defense. We’ll talk about that in a bit. The offensive numbers are very promising. Great contact quality and great expected results. Castellanos doesn’t walk much (7.2% in 2018) but he’s cut down on strikeouts (22.3%) and he punishes the ball. Also, he’s 26. He turns 27 in March. That is an age when players often break out or have a career year. Whoever gets him might be buying the single best year of his career.

Furthermore, few right-handed hitters use the opposite field as well as Castellanos. He hit the sixth most fly balls and line drives to right field among righty hitters the last three years. (No. 1 on that list: DJ LeMahieu.) Here are Castellanos’ fly balls from 2016-18. This spray chart looks like it belongs to a left-handed pull hitter.

Think that’ll play in Yankee Stadium? The hard-hit tendencies, the non-grounder tendencies, and the opposite field tendencies make Castellanos a marvelous fit for the short porch. The kid can hit. He was a highly regarded prospect who went through some growing pains and is now blossoming into a middle of the order force. Every team could use someone like that, including the Yankees.

2. Where would they put him? Castellanos is a brutal defensive player according to both the numbers and the eye test. He started his career at third base, and when his glovework at the hot corner became untenable, the Tigers moved him to right field, where he hasn’t been any better. Some numbers:

  • 2016: -11 DRS (at third)
  • 2017: -14 DRS (at third)
  • 2018: -19 DRS (in right)

For all intents and purposes, Castellanos is a DH. The Yankees would have to put Stanton in left field full-time and move Gardner to the bench to make this work. I suppose they could use Castellanos at third or in right in a pinch, but, generally speaking, he should not be counted on to play defense.

The other option is first base, a position Castellanos has never played as a professional. The Yankees would have to give him a crash course at first base in Spring Training. That’s not ideal. My preference would be putting him at DH and letting him rake. Don’t put more on his plate and expect him to learn a new position. Not as a one-year rental. Get as much out of him as possible and move on.

3. The price might be dropping. According to Fenech, Detroit’s asking price for Castellanos is “believed to be one top-level prospect.” The Dodgers and Braves reportedly had interest in Castellanos earlier this winter and they’ve since signed A.J. Pollock and re-signed Nick Markakis, respectively. Some potential suitors are likely out of the running now, meaning the bidding war may not be as intense.

That said, Castellanos is quite good, and I imagine several other teams remain in the hunt. The Indians, Phillies, and Rockies jump out as potential landing spots. If the Tigers are truly seeking just “one top-level prospect,” man, that sounds wonderful to me. The Yankees are in to win it in 2019. Estevan Florial for one year of Castellanos? Jonathan Loaisiga? Albert Abreu or Domingo Acevedo or Deivi Garcia? I’m not sure I could say no to any of that, especially the pitchers.

Keep in mind the Yankees could potentially recoup a draft pick when Castellanos leaves as a free agent after the season. Not a high one — the Yankees will get a pick after the fourth round for losing a qualified free agent next winter because they’re going to pay luxury tax — but a pick nonetheless. That equals an extra prospect and extra bonus pool space. Give up a prospect to get Castellanos and the cost could potentially be offset somewhat by a compensation pick next year.

* * *

The Tigers avoided arbitration with Castellanos prior to the salary filing deadline earlier this month and will pay him $9.95M in 2019. Following the Sonny Gray trade, Cot’s has the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll at $213.2M. (I have them at $221M but my estimates for various things are more conservative.) Add Castellanos and his $9.95M salary and the Yankees are still under the $226M second luxury tax tier, per Cot’s. It could work. On the field and in the books.

The downside here is Castellanos stinks defensively and is yet another right-handed bat in a lineup loaded with right-handed bats. But, as I’ve been saying, I’d rather add a great right-handed bat than a good left-handed bat who balances the lineup. Consider the possibilities:

  1. RF Aaron Judge
  2. CF Aaron Hicks
  3. LF Giancarlo Stanton
  4. DH Nick Castellanos
  5. 3B Miguel Andujar
  6. C Gary Sanchez
  7. 2B Gleyber Torres
  8. 1B Luke Voit
  9. SS Troy Tulowitzki

I know Judge will never hit leadoff but damn that’s a fun lineup, isn’t it? That leaves Gardner and LeMahieu on the bench. Gardner can replace Stanton for defense in the late innings, and, if Tulowitzki doesn’t cut it, Gleyber can move to short and LeMahieu can take over at second base. Either way, there is thunder up and down that lineup. Would be fun.

Castellanos is not Machado or Harper — by wRC+, his best season would be Machado’s fourth best season and Harper’s fifth best season — but he is a quality hitter who profiles well in Yankee Stadium. He can’t play defense (or run the bases) and he is another righty bat, but Castellanos would make the Yankees better and deeper. And, if the asking price is “one top-level prospect,” gosh, that might be too good to pass up for a team in position to contend for the World Series.

DotF: Albert Abreu, Nestor Cortes wrap up winter ball stints

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The Arizona Fall League season wrapped up nearly a month ago now, but the various Caribbean winter league seasons are still going strong. Here are some minor league notes, including a pair of injury updates, before we get to the performance updates:

  • OF Clint Frazier (concussion) has resumed baseball activities, he announced on Twitter. Hooray for that. Here’s some video. Frazier said he’s been at it for a few weeks now and that is good news. Seems to me he’s on track to be a full participant in Spring Training.
  • RHP Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery) either has started throwing off a mound as part of his rehab or will begin doing so shortly, according to his Twitter feed. Heller had surgery to repair his elbow ligament and also remove a bone spur from his elbow in April. He’s probably looking at a May or June return to game action.
  • The Yankees have announced the OF Tyler Hill trade. The Tigers selected him in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft last week then sent him to New York for cash considerations. “He’s a super athlete and is an under-the-radar baseball player,” said a scout to Kevin Kernan.
  • Triple-A Scranton will host the 2020 Triple-A All-Star Game at PNC Field, the team announced. It is the second Triple-A All-Star Game in Scranton and the first since the ballpark was renovated in 2012. Scranton hosted the 1995 Triple-A All-Star Game as a Phillies affiliate.

Arizona Fall League (stats are final)

  • IF Thairo Estrada: 19 G, 19-for-80 (.238), 9 R, 2 2B, 7 RBI, 4 BB, 15 K, 1 CS, 1 HBP (.238/.282/.263)
  • OF Estevan Florial: 21 G, 13-for-73 (.178), 10 R, 2 2B, 2 3B, 8 RBI, 12 BB, 29 K, 2 SB, 1 CS (.178/.294/.260)
  • 1B Steven Sensley: 21 G, 15-for-76 (.197), 4 R, 3 2B, 1 3B, 9 RBI, 4 BB, 26 K, 1 CS, 2 HBP (.197/.256/.263)
  • RHP Jordan Foley: 7 G, 7 GS, 19.2 IP, 20 H, 20 R, 20 ER, 19 BB, 20 K, 2 HR, 1 HB, 2 WP (9.15 ERA and 1.98 WHIP)
  • RHP Hobie Harris: 9 G, 15 IP, 14 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 7 BB, 16 K, 1 HR, 2 WP (4.20 ERA and 1.40 WHIP)
  • RHP Matt Wivinis: 11 G, 12 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 6 BB, 14 K, 1 HB, 1 WP (1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP)
  • RHP Kyle Zurak: 9 G, 9.1 IP, 16 H, 15 R, 12 ER, 10 BB, 3 K, 3 HR, 3 WP (11.57 ERA and 2.79 WHIP)

[Read more…]

Yankees make one selection, get raided in 2018 Rule 5 Draft

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Green. (@MiLB)

The 2018 Winter Meetings came to an unofficial close earlier today with the annual Rule 5 Draft. It is baseball’s way of ensuring players aren’t trapped in the minors indefinitely. The Yankees have a fairly deep farm system and it is no surprise then that they lost several players in this year’s Rule 5 Draft, mostly in the minor league phase.

Here are the full Rule 5 Draft results. Here are the players the Yankees lost:

  • Diamondbacks: RHP Nick Green (in MLB phase)
  • Athletics: OF Mark Payton (in minor league phase)
  • Cubs: RHP Alex Vargas (in minor league phase)
  • Phillies: RHP Gilmael Troya (in minor league phase)
  • Red Sox: RHP Anyelo Gomez (in minor league phase)
  • Royals: C Chris Rabago (in minor league phase)

As a reminder, players taken in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft have to stick on their new team’s 25-man big league roster all next season, or be placed on waivers and offered back to their original team. Players taken in the minor league phase are just gone. There are no roster rules. Those teams get to keep those players.

Green, 23, came over from the Rangers in the Carlos Beltran trade and he is a personal favorite only because he has a funky cutter/sinker hybrid that helped him post to a 66.4% ground ball rate this season, highest in the minors (min. 130 innings). Green threw 132.2 innings with a 3.32 ERA (4.28 FIP) with 17.7% strikeouts and 11.1% walks this season, with most of that coming with High-A Tampa.

The D’Backs are rebuilding, the Paul Goldschmidt trade confirmed that, so I imagine Green will get a long look in Spring Training and have a chance to stick in their bullpen. Jumping from High-A to the big leagues is not easy, especially with a walk rate like that, but Green’s funky cut-sinker is a dominant ground ball pitch and he could have staying power as a reliever who pounds away with that one pitch.

Among the minor league phase losses, Payton is the most notable because he’s been in the system the longest. The 27-year-old spent most of the last three seasons in Triple-A and hit .259/.368/.401 (120 wRC+) with six homers in 62 games in 2018. A guy like Payton had little hope of cracking New York’s outfield in the near future. He has a much greater chance to reach the big leagues with the Athletics.

Going into the 2018 season I ranked Vargas as the No. 30 prospect in the farm system but clearly I overrated him. The Yankees never used him like a prospect this year. The 21-year-old bounced between the rotation and bullpen, from level to level. They sent him wherever an arm was needed, basically. Vargas threw 83 innings with a 4.01 ERA (4.07 FIP) with 14.3% strikeout and 4.6% walks this season, mostly with Low-A Charleston.

Gomez, 25, was selected and returned by the Braves as a Major League Rule 5 Draft pick last offseason. He threw only 7.1 innings with Triple-A Scranton this season before going down with a significant shoulder injury. The 21-year-old Troya showed some promise a few years ago but hasn’t taken that step forward. He’s yet to pitch above rookie ball. Rabago, 25, was a waiver claim from the Rockies late this year. He played only seven games in the organization, all with Double-A Trenton.

The Yankees did add two players in minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft, first grabbing righty Adonis De La Cruz from the Mariners. The soon-to-be 24-year-old is a converted outfielder who threw 57.1 relief innings with a 4.71 ERA (2.80 FIP) with 30.2% strikeouts and 7.7% walks in Low Class-A. The Yankees have had some recent success with minor league Rule 5 Draft picks, most notably turning Yefry Ramirez into a tradeable asset, so maybe they can do it again with De La Cruz.

According to Emily Waldon, the Yankees acquired outfielder Tyler Hill from the Tigers after the Rule 5 Draft. Detroit took him from the Red Sox in the minor league phase. Huh. Every year one or two players selected in the Major League phase get traded right after the Rule 5 Draft. I can’t remember the last time a minor league phase guy was flipped. Anyway, the 22-year-old Hill authored a .254/.348/.312 (95 wRC+) batting line with one homer and 27 steals in 124 High-A games in 2018. Sox Prospects calls him a “a bat-first, organizational player,” so there you go. The Yankees likely sent the Tigers cash or a similar organizational player in the trade.

So, all told, the Yankees did lose an interesting prospect in Green and some upper level inventory in Payton, Gomez, and Rabago in this year’s Rule 5 Draft. Green could still be returned. The other three plus Vargas and Troya are gone for good. I can’t find a scouting report on De La Cruz but a recently converted position player with a 30.2% strikeout is interesting enough. Hill’s an organizational guy who will help fill out rosters. Nothing exciting, but the Rule 5 Draft rarely is.

Yankeemetrics: Gleyber Day Weekend (Aug. 31-Sept. 2)

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(Newsday)

Bad Dellin
Even in a season in which they’re on pace for their best record in a decade, the Yankees continue to find new ways to lose games. On Thursday night they suffered one of the most shocking upsets of the season as they coughed up a two-run cushion in the top of the ninth inning and lost 8-7 to the Tigers.

It was the first time they lost a home game they led by multiple runs at the start of the ninth since August 27, 2012 against the Blue Jays. Every other team had at least one such loss in that span. Going back further, the only other time in the last 15 seasons — since 2004 — that the Yankees lost a game in the Bronx they led by at least two runs entering the ninth was June 28, 2012 vs the White Sox.

J.A. Happ threw his worst start in pinstripes, allowing five runs on 10 hits, including three game-changing homers. It’s hard to do all that while getting no more than 13 outs. The last Yankee to give up at least 10 hits, five runs and three bombs in an outing of 4 1/3 innings or fewer was Carl Pavano on May 11, 2005. Ugh.

Giancarlo Stanton had a historic night as he finally went deep for his 300th career home run, a two-run shot in the third inning that gave the Yankees a brief 2-1 lead. He became the fifth-fastest to reach the mark in terms of games (1,119).

Stanton is also in an exclusive club in terms of his age and power/on-base ability. Among right-handed batters, the only other players to compile at least 300 homers and an OBP of .350 or better through their age-28 season are Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols and Jimmie Foxx.

The goat of the game was Dellin Betances, who surrendered consecutive home runs in the ninth inning as a 7-5 advantage quickly became an 8-7 loss. This was the first time in his career he allowed multiple homers in a game. Obscure Yankeemetric Alert: Since 1925, only one other Yankee pitcher allowed back-to-back game-tying and go-ahead homers in the ninth inning of a game: Catfish Hunter on April 18, 1976 against the Minnesota Twins. Betances had been lights-out over the past three months before Thursday’s implosion:

Dellin Betances Since May 27
IP R HR Batters
Faced
Thursday 1 3 2 6
Previous 35 Games 33.2 2 1 129

Early Gleyber Day Celebration
The Yankees rebounded from Thursday’s crushing loss with another crazy comeback win on Friday. They finished August with a 17-13 (.567) record, which was their worst monthly record of the season — but that still put them in elite company. The last time the Yankees had a win percentage of .567 or better in each of the first five months of the season (combining March/April) was 1998.

Down 3-0 and without a hit through the first 5 1/3 innings, the Yankees exploded for four runs over a four-batter span in the sixth thanks to a trio of homers — a two-run shot by Brett Gardner that cut the deficit to 3-2, a game-tying solo homer by Aaron Hicks and a go-ahead blast from Miguel Andujar. Andujar’s dinger was his fifth that either tied the game or gave the team a lead in the sixth inning or later, which leads all Yankees. Oh and he put himself on this graphic too:

The Yankees would need another rally, however, after Zach Britton suffered a meltdown as he tried to protect the one-run lead, yielding a game-tying single in the seventh and a sac fly in the eighth. It was the first time in his career as a reliever that he surrendered a go-ahead sacrifice fly.

Britton was saved from goat status by the clutch hitting of Gleyber Torres, who delivered a game-winning bases-loaded two-run single in the eighth inning. It was his fifth game-tying/go-ahead hit in the eighth inning or later, the most on the Yankees this season.

(AP)

Two is enough
The comeback mojo continued on Saturday as the Yankees overcame another sluggish start offensively and rallied to win, 2-1, despite getting only two hits. This is the third time in the last three seasons they’ve won a game with no more than two hits; before this stretch, it hadn’t happened since 1994.

Oh, and there’s this stat too: Their three wins with two hits or fewer since the start of 2016 are the most of any team.

But what made this win so unique is the fact that the Yankees also struck out 10 times. Obscure Yankeemetric alert! Saturday was the 18th time since 1908 (as far back as we have complete boxscore data) that they won a game with two or fewer hits, but it was the first time they also had double-digit strikeouts.

For the second straight night their first hit was a game-changing homer, this time it was a two-run blast in the fifth inning by Gleyber Torres. His 22 homers are the most in Major-League history by a second baseman age 21 or younger in a single season.

Masahiro Tanaka battled through a shaky first inning during which he loaded the bases with no outs and escaped with only one run on the scoreboard. His ability to pitch out of tough situations and limit the damage has been an underrated part of Tanaka’s season. He’s held batters to a .100 batting average (4-for-40) with runners in scoring position and two outs, fourth-best among MLB starters (min. 40 batters faced), behind a trio of Cy Young contenders: Blake Snell (.063), Chris Sale (.073) and Aaron Nola (.094).

(Getty)

Not enough muscle
The Yankees finished off their homestand with a dud, an 11-7 loss that featured a bunch of heart-wrenching warning-track outs but ultimately too many big deficits to overcome. The Yankees were 33-13 at home in the first half of the season; since the break, they are just 15-11 in the Bronx, and 23 of the 26 matchups have come against teams that entered gameday with a sub-.500 record.

Lance Lynn was awful again, getting rocked for six runs before he was yanked in the fourth inning. His last four starts have been a disaster, especially when compared to the promise he showed in his first three appearances as a Yankee:

Lance Lynn as a Yankee
IP Runs WHIP
Last 4 Games 18.2 19 1.98
First 3 Games 16.2 1 0.96

Miguel Andujar went 3-for-4 with a double, pushing his batting average up to .301 and his slugging percentage up to .530. The only Yankee rookie in franchise history to finish a season with at least a .300 batting average and a .530 slugging percentage (min. 300 PA) was Joe DiMaggio in 1936 (.323 BA, .576 SLG).

8/30 to 9/2 Series Preview: Detroit Tigers

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If the Tigers have two good hitters, here they are. (Duane Burleson/Getty Images)

Four more games remain in the Yankees’ penultimate homestand and it’s another of the AL Central’s rebuilding squads. Next up: the Detroit Tigers.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees made a brief stop in Detroit for a doubleheader on June 4, splitting the two games after losing the nightcap.

  • Luis Severino dominated the first game, allowing just two runs (one earned) over eight innings while striking out 10. He allowed just five baserunners.
  • Gleyber Torres, Greg Bird and Austin Romine all homered to knock out Drew VerHagen early in Game 1.
  • Domingo German couldn’t cut it in Game 2 and the Yankees’ bats came up short in a 4-2 loss. Giancarlo Stanton was hit by Mike Fiers, who has some history with the slugger, leading to this homer and reaction from Stanton.

For more information, check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post on that twin bill.

Injury Report

Miguel Cabrera is out for the year after left biceps surgery while backup John Hicks is also gone for the year. Shortstop Jose Iglesias underwent an MRI in New York on Thursday after suffering a lower abdominal strain and was placed on the 10-day disabled list.

On the pitching side, lefty Blaine Hardy is out with elbow tendinitis while Daniel Norris is on the mend from left groin surgery and could pitch in this series.

Their Story So Far

The Tigers stand at 53-80, tied with the White Sox for the third worst record in the American League and third place in the AL Central. Detroit has lost five straight games, all coming against the similarly putrid Royals and Southsiders. Their 19-46 road record is the worse only than the Orioles in all of baseball.

On the personnel side, a few starters have put up respectable numbers while their offense has been quite poor. The team dealt Mike Fiers and Leonys Martin (get well soon!) at the deadline.

Lineup We Might See

1. 3B Jeimer Candelario (.227/.315/.400, 94 wRC+)
2. 2B Niko Goodrum (.225/.298/.412, 90 wRC+)
3. RF Nicholas Castellanos (.290/.344/.487, 123 wRC+)
4. DH Victor Martinez (.248/.298/.337, 69 wRC+)
5. 1B Jim Adduci (.284/.316/.413, 96 wRC+)
6. LF Mikie Mahtook (.220/.292/.360, 75 wRC+)
7. C James McCann (.221/.269/.317, 57 wRC+)
8. CF JaCoby Jones (.203/.259/.363, 65 wRC+)
9. SS Ronny Rodriguez (.205/.248/.291, 43 wRC+)

I’m guessing Goodrum slides into Iglesias’ spot in the lineup and Rodriguez moves onto shortstop. The Tigers have just a three-man bench right now even after adding Dawel Lugo to the active roster in place of Iglesias. That will change Saturday with callups.

Matthew Boyd makes a lot of weird pitching faces. (Leon Halip/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Thursday (7:05 PM ET): LHP J.A. Happ vs. LHP Francisco Liriano
After a strong start to the season, Francisco Liriano has come back down to earth some, particularly in the late summer. Liriano has pitched to a 4.82 ERA overall, but the 34-year-old has a 5.32 ERA and 1.90 WHIP since the All-Star break, failing to get through six innings in any of his starts. His walks have risen and he’s seen a parade of hits. Ron Gardenhire gave Liriano a few extra days off before this start.

The left-hander has essentially eschewed his four-seamer entirely and uses his sinker 41 percent of the time. Outside of that, he’s still the same heavy-slider pitcher we know and love with 1/5 changeups to boot.

Last Outing (vs. CHC on Aug. 22) – 5.1 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 HR

Friday (7:05 PM ET): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Jordan Zimmermann
The other veteran on the staff, Jordan Zimmermann has fared much better in 2018 than 2017. After he was tied for the MLB lead in earned runs allowed last year, he’s improved, sporting a respectable 4.38 ERA over 100 2/3 innings. The former National has seen a steep rise in his K rate while also cutting down on his walks, a nice recipe even if he allows 1.61 HR per nine.

Zimmermann throws 45.1 percent fastballs, averaging 91.2 mph with the heater while going to his slider a third of the time and mixing in some curveballs and occasional changeups. His slider has been his most effective pitch and he works it in the mid-80s.

Last Outing (vs. CHW on Aug. 26) – 6.0 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 0 BB, 5 K, 1 HR

Saturday (4:05 PM ET): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. TBD
Right now, the Tigers have a four men in their rotation with the fourth, Michael Fulmer, starting Wednesday. Therefore, the Sept. 1 start has plenty of options, one of whom could be Daniel Norris. He made a rehab appearance in Toledo on Sunday, throwing 72 pitches over four innings. As mentioned above, Norris is rehabbing groin surgery he underwent earlier this year.

If not Norris, we could be in for a dreaded bullpen game. Considering the expanded rosters, that could mean a whole slew of young relievers. Oh boy.

Sunday (1:05 PM ET): RHP Lance Lynn vs. LHP Matthew Boyd
Matthew Boyd has been one of the Tigers’ most reliable starters this season after being hit hard in 2017. At 27 years old, he’s put together 147 innings with a 4.22 ERA and a 3.98 FIP. The good news for the Yankees is that he is much better at Comerica Park (2.56 ERA, 5 HR in 70 1/3 innings) than on the road (5.75 ERA, 12 HR in 76 2/3 innings). He hasn’t had a significant platoon split this season.

Featuring a similar repertoire to Zimmermann, the southpaw works off a low-90s fastball with over 30 percent sliders and a mix of 70s curveballs and changeups. According to Fangraphs pitch values, he’s had one of the most effective sliders in baseball this season.

Last Outing (@ KC on Aug. 28) – 6.0 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 HR

The Bullpen

Shane Greene is still the Tigers’ closer. Joe Jimenez had emerged as a setup man, but he’s struggled of late. Josh Smoker and Daniel Stumpf are the lefties in the bullpen. The group has a high ERA (4.51) but has put together league-average-ish peripherals. Here are their post-All-Star break numbers going into yesterday:

  • 4.67 ERA (24th in MLB)
  • 4.21 FIP (12th in MLB)
  • 0.7 WAR (11th in MLB)
  • 21.7% K rate (18th in MLB)
  • 7.5% BB rate (8th in MLB)
  • 1.31 HR/9 (20th in MLB)

The team needed 4 1/3 innings out of five relievers Wednesday, though they’ll receive the boost of September callups in just a few days.

Yankees Connection

Greene was the price the Yankees paid to get Didi Gregorius while 40-man roster presence Johnny Barbato pitched 13 lackluster innings as a rookie for the Bombers in 2016.

Who (Or What) to Watch?

  • This is the type of offense the Yankees should shut down. Could be nice to see the Wild Card Game starting candidates (Happ, Severino, Tanaka) go on a roll vs. the Tigers.
  • I like watching Matthew Boyd pitch (and not just because he gave up that monster Gary Sanchez homer last year!)