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River Ave. Blues » Johnny Cueto

Another starter off the board: Giants land Johnny Cueto

December 14, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

(Jamie Squire/Getty)
(Jamie Squire/Getty)

The last free agent ace is off the board. The Giants have agreed to a six-year contract worth $130M with right-hander Johnny Cueto, according to multiple reports. The deal also includes an opt-out clause after two years, which I’ve been told makes it team friendly, or something.

Cueto, 29, had a 3.44 ERA (3.53 FIP) in 212 innings for the Reds and Royals in 2015. He did struggled down the stretch with Kansas City, but he also had some ace-like moments in the postseason — ALDS Game 5 and World Series Game 2, most notably — and his track record is stellar. This guy has a 2.71 ERA (3.41 FIP) in his last 889.1 innings.

Like David Price and Zack Greinke, the Yankees were never in on Cueto as far as we know. They’ve apparently sworn off spending big this offseason and have instead focused on trades for younger players. Mike Leake and Scott Kazmir are the best of what’s left on the free agent market.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants

Hot Stove Links: Cliff Lee, Johnny Cueto, Jay Bruce

December 4, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)
(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

The Winter Meetings start Monday, and according to Buster Olney, the Yankees are having a ton of trade discussions with teams about many different players. The only constant: they’re looking for young pitching in return. Not the first time we’ve heard that this offseason. Here are some other miscellaneous hot stove nuggets to pass along.

Cliff Lee intends to pitch in 2016

According to Jon Heyman, free agent left-hander Cliff Lee is currently throwing and has been cleared by doctors to resume pitching. He intends to pitch next season, as long as he finds a good fit. Lee missed most of the 2014 season due to a flexor strain in his elbow, then suffered a torn flexor this spring, which caused him to miss the 2015 season. The Phillies declined his $27.5M option after the season, instead paying a $12.5M buyout.

Lee, now 37, was still really good when healthy last year (3.65 ERA and 2.96 FIP in 81.1 innings), but that was a very long time and two serious arm injuries ago. Who knows what he can give a team right now. Brian Cashman and the Yankees are longtime fans of Lee. They’ve tried to trade for him on multiple occasions and tried to sign him as a free agent. Would it be a surprise if they reached out to him this offseason? No way. The questions are 1) does he consider the Yankees a good fit, and 2) will he come to camp as a non-roster invitee? Developing!

Yankees not all that interested in Johnny Cueto

This is not a surprise. According to George King, the Yankees don’t have a whole lot of interest in free agent right-hander Johnny Cueto. They are keeping an eye on the market for Jeff Samardzija and Wei-Yin Chen, however. Without a sudden increase in payroll — which I guess is always possible — it’s hard to see how the Yankees can afford a huge money starter like Cueto.

Cueto, who turns 30 in February, recently turned down a six-year contract worth $120M from the Diamondbacks, according to multiple reports. I think he’ll end up closer to six years and $150M or so, which is Jon Lester money. Cueto struggled with the Royals down the stretch but had some truly ace-like moments in the postseason, plus his track record is outstanding. He’s going to he paid. I just think if the Yankees were willing to go into the ~$25M a year range for a free agent starter like Cueto, they’d go the extra mile for David Price.

Yankees included in Jay Bruce’s no-trade list

This doesn’t seem all that important, but Jerry Crasnick reports the Yankees are one of eight teams included on Jay Bruce’s no-trade list. He can block deals to the Yankees, Red Sox, Twins, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Athletics, Blue Jays, and Rays. Cincinnati has committed to rebuilding and it’s only a matter of time until they trade Bruce, who hit a disappointing .226/.294/.434 (91 wRC+) with 26 homers in 2015.

The Yankees have no need for another outfielder at the moment, especially not another left-handed hitting one. I suppose they could target Bruce as a bounceback candidate should they trade Brett Gardner at some point, but I think they’d sooner go with Aaron Hicks and some young guys. Bruce, who is still only 28, has been hurt and not very good the last two years. He’s owed $12.5M next year with a $13M team option for 2017. File this under: maybe relevant down the road.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Cliff Lee, Jay Bruce, Jeff Samardzija, Johnny Cueto, Wei-Yin Chen

2015 Trade Deadline Open Thread: Monday

July 27, 2015 by Mike 1,972 Comments

Hamels. (David Banks/Getty)
Hamels. (David Banks/Getty)

The 2015 non-waiver trade deadline is this coming Friday at 4pm ET. The Yankees are currently 55-42 with a +34 run differential on the season, giving them a 6.5-game lead in the AL East. FanGraphs puts their postseason odds at a healthy 93.1%. Despite that, the roster could use some reinforcements, particularly at second base and on the mound.

“We’ve had conversations with every club willing to sell, finding out what they’re willing to sell and what their price tags are. You engage everyone about everything,” said Brian Cashman to Ken Rosenthal recently. The Yankees are said to prefer rental players — their trade deadline activity in recent years backs that up — but they’ve reportedly “sworn off” dealing top prospects for said rentals. We’ll see.

We’ll keep track of any Yankees-related rumors right here throughout the day. The team tends to do things very quietly, almost all of their major moves seem to come out of nowhere, so I can’t promise you many updates. Especially not this early in the week. Either way, keep tabs on everything  and talk about all things trade deadline right here throughout the day.

  • 6:17pm ET: The A’s have traded Tyler Clippard to the Mets for minor league righty Casey Meisner, the teams announced. So scratch Clippard off the list. Meisner was the Amazin’s third round pick last summer. He’s similar to a healthy Austin DeCarr, if you’re wondering.
  • 5:00pm ET: The Dodgers and Rangers are currently seen as the favorites to land Cole Hamels. The Phillies continue to demand either Judge or Severino from the Yankees. [Heyman]
  • 3:36pm ET: The Yankees continue to show interest in Ben Zobrist but they are one of many. The Pirates, Royals, Angels, and Cubs are also trying him to pry him away from Oakland. [Heyman]
  • 12:53pm ET: As expected, the Yankees continue to talk both starters and relievers with other teams, especially righty relievers. The plan could be to acquire a reliever then moving Adam Warren back into the rotation. [Heyman]
  • 11:30am ET: The Yankees have indeed contacted the Phillies about Cole Hamels, which is no surprise. They had a scout at his no-hitter over the weekend. The Phillies asked for either Aaron Judge or Luis Severino, but the Yankees are not planning to move Judge, Severino, Greg Bird, or other top prospects. Philadelphia is also said to be seeking a catcher in any trade. [Ken Rosenthal, Jon Heyman, Jim Salisbury, Buster Olney]
  • In addition to Hamels, the Yankees are keeping tabs on basically every available starting pitcher. That list includes Jeff Samardzija, Ian Kennedy, Yovani Gallardo, and Mat Latos, among others. It remains to see whether the Tigers will cave and make David Price available. [Joel Sherman]
  • The Yankees are a potential landing spot for Tyler Clippard, who could be dealt as soon as today. The club has also been scouting Padres relievers recently, presumably Craig Kimbrel and Joaquin Benoit. Kimbrel is Kimbrel, and the Yanks have shown a bunch of interest in Benoit in recent years. [Susan Slusser, Jon Morosi]
  • The Yankees are looking for an upgrade at second base. There’s not much out there aside from Ben Zobrist, however. They have zero interest in Aaron Hill and could simply recall Rob Refsnyder if they’re unable to make a deal for help at second. [Jon Heyman]
  • Marlins righty Mat Latos has been linked to the Yankees. The Marlins are in sell mode — they’ve already traded ex-closer Steve Cishek to the Cardinals — and have plenty of rental players to offer. Here is our Scouting The Market post on Latos and other Miami players. [Joe Frisaro]
  • Athletics director of player personnel Billy Owens has scouting Double-A Trenton recently. That is definitely not the most prospect-laden team in the system. Scott Kazmir has already been traded, but the Yankees have interest in Zobrist. [Matt Kardos]
  • The Yankees and Reds did have discussions about Johnny Cueto before he was traded to the Royals. Apparently Ivan Nova‘s name came up. Talks didn’t advance very far. [George King]

Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.

Filed Under: Open Thread, Trade Deadline Tagged With: Aaron Hill, Aaron Judge, Cincinnati Reds, Cole Hamels, Greg Bird, Johnny Cueto, Luis Severino, Mat Latos, Oakland Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, Tyler Clippard

Rosenthal: Royals acquiring Johnny Cueto from Reds

July 26, 2015 by Mike 225 Comments

(Joe Robbins/Getty)
(Joe Robbins/Getty)

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Royals are set to acquire ace right-hander Johnny Cueto from the Reds. The two sides were close to a deal yesterday before things fell apart when Cincinnati got scared by something they found in the medicals of another player involved in the deal. Apparently the two sides were able to work out a trade anyway.

The Yankees had reportedly been scouting Cueto for weeks, which makes total sense. He’s both a great pitcher and also a rental, making him a perfect fit for a team in need of rotation help and wary of taking on long-term deals. It’s unclear if the Yankees ever had serious talks with the Reds about Cueto. We also don’t know who the Royals are sending to Cincy, so I can’t offer up a comparable Yankees package.

Even with Cueto and Scott Kazmir (traded to the Astros) off the board, there are still plenty of pitchers on the trade market. Cole Hamels is the big name, but he comes with a hefty contract. Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake, Ian Kennedy, and Mat Latos are other rental options. The Tigers remain undecided about whether to trade David Price. The package for Cueto will give us an idea of what it would take to acquire Price, who would look might fine in pinstripes.

Update: Cueto was traded for left-handers Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb, and Cody Reed, both clubs announced. I’m not sure there’s a good Yankees equivalent. Jacob Lindgren, Manny Banuelos if they still had him, and Brady Lail? That doesn’t really work. Eh, whatever.

Filed Under: Other Teams, Trade Deadline Tagged With: Cincinnati Reds, Johnny Cueto, Kansas City Royals

Reports: Yankees remain in the market for rotation help, continue to scout Johnny Cueto

July 9, 2015 by Mike 51 Comments

Johnny Cueto

To the surprise of no one, the Yankees remain in the market for rotation help leading up to the trade deadline, reports Jon Heyman. Joel Sherman says they again had a scout at Johnny Cueto’s most recent start earlier this week, when he thew a shutout against the Nationals. The Yanks have been scouting him (and teammate Mike Leake) since at least last month.

Coming into today, New York’s rotation had a 4.30 ERA (3.80 FIP) on the season, which puts them in the lower third of the league. That includes Adam Warren’s work as a starter (3.59 ERA and 4.12 FIP), and he’s in the bullpen now, so the five starters currently in the rotation have been less effective than that 4.30 ERA indicates. Besides, there’s always room for improvement.

The trade deadline is three weeks and one day away now, and the market is developing really slowly this summer. By this date last year guys like Jeff Samardzija, Jason Hammel, and Brandon McCarthy had all been traded already. (Monday was the one-year anniversary of the McCarthy deal.) Mark Trumbo is the biggest name to have been dealt so far this year. That’ll change soon though.

Only six teams are more than six games out of a postseason spot right now — 12 of the 15 AL teams are within six games of a postseason spot! — so clubs are reluctant to sell. They want to stay in the hunt as long as possible and keep fans interested deep into August and September. Who can blame them? Unfortunately it makes for a dull few weeks leading up to the trade deadline.

The Yankees prefer rentals, and in addition to Cueto and Leake, other rental starters include Samardzija, Scott Kazmir, Bartolo Colon, Mat Latos, Ian Kennedy, and Kyle Lohse. Colon and Lohse have been ineffective this year, Kazmir left last night’s start with a triceps injury, and Kennedy has somehow allowed 18 home runs in 80 innings while playing in spacious Petco Park and various other pitcher friendly NL West parks. Cueto’s the cream of the crop, clearly.

CC Sabathia had his knee drained a few days ago for the second time this season and other starters like Masahiro Tanaka (elbow) and Michael Pineda (shoulder) carry perpetual injury concerns. Ivan Nova is just coming from Tommy John surgery too. Nathan Eovaldi’s the only starter without some kind of known physical concern. So exploring the market for rotation help is a no-brainer move for the Yankees. The AL East is so very winnable and you don’t have to try to hard to envision a scenario where rotation help is needed down the stretch.

(GIF via MLB.com)

Filed Under: Trade Deadline Tagged With: Johnny Cueto

Scouting The Trade Market: Cincinnati Reds

June 18, 2015 by Mike 435 Comments

(Joe Robbins/Getty)
(Joe Robbins/Getty)

Now that the draft is complete, MLB front offices have turned their attention to the trade deadline to look for ways to improve their big league rosters. The deadline is only six weeks away now, you know. There are going to be more buyers than sellers this summer — the Cardinals have the best record in MLB and the next 16 teams are all within six games of each other in the standings — which means the demand will be greater than the supply.

The Reds figure to sell before the trade deadline because they’re both bad (30-35) and stuck in an extremely competitive division. Having to catch St. Louis would be one thing, but they also have to compete with the red hot Pirates (20-5 in their last 25 games!) and upstart Cubs as well. Cincinnati doesn’t have a ton of pieces that would fit with the Yankees — the Yankees don’t need Jay Bruce or Joey Votto, and Todd Frazier is presumably off limits — but they do have a few. Let’s run ’em down.

LHP Aroldis Chapman

Brian Cashman says the Yankees are looking for a right-handed reliever but I’m sure they’d make an exception for Chapman, who is actually having his worse season since taking over as closer in terms of allowing base-runners. Still, the 27-year-old has an unreal strikeout rate and is generally awesome, and he’d make any bullpen better. Here are the numbers:

IP ERA FIP K% BB% GB% HR/9 Whiff% BABIP
2013 63.2 2.54 2.47 43.4% 11.2% 33.6% 0.99 16.5% .280
2014 54.0 2.00 0.89 52.5% 11.9% 43.5% 0.17 20.2% .290
2015 30.1 2.08 2.02 40.1% 13.6% 30.5% 0.30 18.8% .345

Squint your eyes and there are some red flags. His strikeout rate is down (but still great), his swing-and-miss rate is down (but still great), his ground ball rate is down (but he isn’t giving up homers), and his walk rate is up (got nothing there). Chapman is still throwing insanely hard and he’s healthy as far as we know. Give him enough innings and I’m sure that BABIP issue will correct itself. Otherwise everything looks pretty swell.

By elite closer standards, Chapman is a bargain at $8.05M this year with another year of arbitration left next year, when his salary figures to climb into the $12M range. He’ll be a free agent after the 2016 season. Cincinnati’s best chance to get maximum value is right now, when the acquiring team would be getting Chapman for two potential postseason runs, not one. They’d also limit their risk because relievers like to melt down without warning.

Not many relievers of Chapman’s caliber have been traded recently — Craig Kimbrel was under contract for three more years plus an option for a fourth at the time of his trade — so there aren’t any deals we can reference. Half a season of Andrew Miller was traded for a pretty good pitching prospect last year, and Chapman’s track record as an elite reliever is much longer than Miller’s. That’s about as close as it gets.

My guess — and I emphasize that this is a guess — is the Reds would want three players for their ace closer: a top prospect, an MLB ready piece, and a good but not great secondary prospect. That’s where I’d probably start if I was them. Give me someone I could put on my roster right now, a really good prospect, and then another guy too. Negotiate from there. Chapman’s awesome. Would creating the best three-headed bullpen monster in history be worth it at that price to the Yankees?

RHP Johnny Cueto

Cueto, 29, is going to be the top pitching prize at the trade deadline. Yeah, Cole Hamels is great too, but his contract takes some teams right out of the running. Cueto is a rent-an-ace owed about $6M the rest of the season. Every single team could find a way to make that work financially. Do all of them have the prospects to make a deal happen? That’s a different story. I think the Yankees would be able to get it done, for what it’s worth.

Anyway, unless the Reds unexpectedly sign Cueto to an extension — that’s probably not going to happen at this point, mostly because the team is already bumping up against their tight payroll limit — they’ll trade him before the deadline because they simply can’t settle for a draft pick after the season. That’s not enough. Cueto’s probably a goner either way, trade or free agency, and they need to get as much as possible for someone of his caliber. Here are his numbers:

IP ERA FIP K% BB% GB% HR/9 Whiff% BABIP
2013 60.2 2.82 3.81 21.1% 7.4% 50.9% 1.04 11.1% .236
2014 243.2 2.25 3.30 25.2% 6.8% 46.2% 0.81 9.9% .238
2015 90.2 2.98 3.27 24.1% 4.5% 40.7% 0.99 10.8% .248

A series of lat strains limited Cueto to those 60.2 innings two years ago but he was healthy before that and has been healthy since then. The decline in ground ball rate isn’t all that scary because grounders were never his thing anyway — Cueto’s a weak pop-up pitcher who consistently keeps hitters off balance and misses the sweet spot (third lowest hard contact rate since 2011). We’re going to need some visual aids here. To the action footage:

Cueto goes full Luis Tiant and turns his back on the hitter. That deception, the wide range of velocity, the assortment of pitches, the ability to pitch to both sides of the plate … pitching is about disrupting the hitter’s timing and few do it as well as Cueto. The guy throws five pitches at least 11% of the time: low-to-mid-90s two and four-seamers, upper-80s cutters, mid-80s changeups, and low-80s sliders. I mean, come on. It’s not hard to see why he’s so successful.

Cueto did miss two starts earlier this season with elbow inflammation and that’s a concern. He’s been fine since, but still, any time a pitcher feels a twinge in his elbow, it’s a red flag. The risk is somewhat mitigated by Cueto’s impending free agency — if you trade for him and his elbow gives out, you can walk away after the season and not have a long-term problem — but you’re still going to have to hold your breath and hope he holds up down the stretch. It’s only natural to feel that way once an elbow starts barking.

The Yankees scouted Cueto over the weekend and then again last night according to Jon Morosi, though I’m guessing that was due diligence more than anything at this point. Either way, Cueto is a capital-A Ace who would instantly improve any rotation. As I pointed out the other day, rental aces are rarely traded, mostly because those guys don’t get to free agency in their primes all that often. The 2012 Zack Greinke and 2008 CC Sabathia trades are the best reference points we have, and they indicate it will take 3-4 good prospects to get a deal done.

There are two ways to look at this. One, the Yankees should get Cueto right now to improve their postseason chances. The longer they wait, the fewer starts they get out of him. Two, the Yankees should wait, see where they are at the deadline, then decide whether to pull the trigger. This isn’t a Cliff Lee situation — the 2010 Yankees were a World Series caliber team looking to add a rental ace to push themselves over the top. The 2015 Yankees are just trying to scratch and claw their way into October. Is gutting the farm system for two or three months of Cueto worth it?

Leake (and Matt Carpenter). (Dilip Vishwanat/Getty)
Leake (and Matt Carpenter). (Dilip Vishwanat/Getty)

RHP Mike Leake

The 27-year-old Leake is the Reds other impending free agent hurler, though he’s no ace like Cueto. Leake is a perfectly fine mid-rotation starter who helps hold down the fort, not push you over the top. The Yankees were scouting him along with Cueto over the weekend, but again, due diligence, not necessarily serious interest. Let’s get the numbers out of the way:

IP ERA FIP K% BB% GB% HR/9 Whiff% BABIP
2013 192.1 3.37 4.04 15.2% 6.0% 48.7% 0.98 6.9% .285
2014 214.1 3.70 3.88 18.2% 5.5% 53.4% 0.97 7.0% .298
2015 82.2 4.35 4.86 13.9% 6.7% 52.4% 1.42 5.9% .262

Leake got off to a tremendous start this season then crashed back to Earth hard and fast. The home run issues probably won’t be as extreme all year (19.7 HR/FB% vs. career 14.1%) and his strikeout rate isn’t that far removed from his career norm (16.1%), so even though his ERA continues to trend in the wrong direction, the underlying performance isn’t all that different. Leake is still limiting walks and keeping the ball on the ground. That’s what he does.

Believe it or not, Leake’s salary this season is almost exactly the same as Cueto’s ($10M vs. $9.775M), though it’ll obviously cost much less to acquire him. Lots of mid-rotation guys get traded prior to free agency — Brandon McCarthy, Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Justin Masterson, and Ricky Nolasco were all dealt at the deadline of their walk year in the not too distant past. The return package was anything from one okay prospect to four good prospects. Let’s split the middle and say two prospects will get it done. Sound good?

Acquiring pitching depth is never a bad thing, but how exactly would Leake help the Yankees? As things stand right now, he barely moves the needle. I think the only way pursuing Leake makes sense for New York is if they lose a few starters to injury these next few weeks, which is always possible. Masahiro Tanaka (elbow), CC Sabathia (knee), and Michael Pineda (shoulder) are perpetual injury risks and we still have no idea what Ivan Nova (elbow) will look like when he returns. Leake is available. At this point in time his usefulness to the Yankees is limited.

(Bob Levey/Getty Images)
(Bob Levey/Getty Images)

2B Brandon Phillips

I suppose it’s time for our annual “say no to Brandon Phillips” post. Phillips is actually having an okay year with the bat, hitting .295/.333/.364 (92 wRC+) overall, which makes it his best offensive season since 2012. But still, we’re talking about a player who a) turns 34 in less than two weeks, b) is owed roughly $35M through 2017, c) is slipping in the field according to every available metric, d) is battling more and more nagging injuries (groin and toe this year), and e) is losing power each year:


Source: FanGraphs — Brandon Phillips

There’s a lot of value in batting average and putting the ball in play, two things Phillips is doing well this season, but he is clearly a player in decline. A player in decline who is owed a lot of money and tends to be a distraction when things aren’t going his way. The Reds offered Phillips for Brett Gardner straight up during the 2013-14 offseason and the Yankees wisely said no.

Yes, Stephen Drew is terrible and no, there is no reason to expect him to stop being terrible. Drew’s a problem and the Yankees need an upgrade. Locking themselves into two and a half years of the declining and overpriced Phillips should not be the solution, however, even if he comes in what amounts to a salary dump trade. Phillips has had a heck of a career and he was a very good player for many years, but he is no longer that player despite being paid to be that player. The Reds have been trying to move him for a while now, and, as bad as Drew is, the Yankees shouldn’t let Cincinnati off the hook. This is a contract they’ll have to live with.

* * *

The Yankees and Reds might actually match up well for a trade. Cincinnati needs outfielders even with top prospect Jesse Winker on the way because Bruce is trade bait and Billy Hamilton simply can’t get on base, plus Marlon Byrd is hurt and an impending free agent. They’ve had Ivan DeJesus Jr., Brennan Boesch, Kris Negron, and Skip Schumaker start games in the outfield recently. Yikes. The Yankees have lots of upper level outfielders — Mason Williams, Ramon Flores, Tyler Austin, Ben Gamel — so Cincinnati can take their pick.

I am decidedly anti-Phillips and Leake doesn’t help much, but Chapman and Cueto are difference-makers the Yankees have to at least consider pursuing. Maybe there’s a Nathan Eovaldi plus Luis Severino plus Aaron Judge plus other stuff for Chapman and Cueto trade to be made. (My trade proposal sucks.) The Reds are going to be sellers at the trade deadline and both Chapman and Cueto are extremely desirable pieces who would help any team, including the Yankees.

Filed Under: Trade Deadline Tagged With: Aroldis Chapman, Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds, Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Scouting The Market

King: Yankees scouting Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake

June 16, 2015 by Mike 342 Comments

Hair would have to go, Johnny. (Drew Hallowell/Getty)
Hair would have to go, Johnny. (Drew Hallowell/Getty)

According to George King, the Yankees sent scout Jeff Datz to watch right-handers Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake pitch this weekend. The Reds are already well out of the postseason race and are stuck in a really tough NL Central division. They haven’t yet said they will sell at the trade deadline, but all signs point to Cincinnati dealing away their two impending free agent starters come July 31st.

Cueto, 29, allowed four runs in seven innings against the Cubs on Friday, striking out nine and walking none. He has a stellar 2.85 ERA (3.15 FIP) in 12 starts and 85.1 innings this season, right in line with the 2.48 ERA (3.37 FIP) he put up from 2011-14. Cueto has truly been one of the game’s best pitchers over the last half-decade or so. Remarkably consistent.

The biggest concern with Cueto is his elbow — he missed two starts last month with elbow inflammation, and tests did confirm his ulnar collateral ligament is intact, says Mark Sheldon. He’s been excellent since coming back from the elbow issue, allowing six runs total with 22 strikeouts and two walks in 20 innings across three starts, but still. The guy’s elbow was barking not too long ago. Red flag!

Leake, on the other hand, has crashed back to Earth after a great start. The 27-year-old gave up three runs in five innings against Chicago on Saturday and has a 4.35 ERA (4.86 FIP) in 13 starts and 82.2 innings this year. It’s his worst season since 2012 despite a monster start that featured a 2.36 ERA (4.27 FIP) in his first seven outings. The crash has been quick and hard.

Both Leake and Cueto are impending free agents — the Tigers, Red Sox, and Giants were also scouting Cueto this weekend according to Jon Morosi and Ken Rosenthal — and Cueto is definitely a qualifying offer candidate. Easy call there. The Reds have no reason to take anything less than a first round caliber prospect for their ace, and ultimately it’ll wind up taking a lot more to get him because multiple teams figure to be involved in the bidding. There have only been three rental ace trades in the last seven years:

  • Jon Lester for one and a half years of Yoenis Cespedes and rental Jonny Gomes.
  • Zack Greinke for big league ready Jean Segura and prospects Johnny Hollweg and Ariel Pena.
  • CC Sabathia for prospects Michael Brantley, Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, and Rob Bryson.

The Lester trade was unique because both teams planned to contend — the Athletics right away and the Red Sox the following season, which is why all big leaguers were involved. The Greinke and Sabathia trades are examples of bad teams trading their ace before losing him to free agency, which applies to Cueto and the Reds. Both trades involved at least three prospects with one big time headliner (Segura and LaPorta). (Brantley was the player to be named later in the Sabathia trade. He was the fourth piece!)

Leake. (Joe Robbins/Getty)
Leake. (Joe Robbins/Getty)

Leake is a mid-rotation starter with a long track record and those guys get traded all the time. Brandon McCarthy, Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Justin Masterson, Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, Francisco Liriano … those dudes were all traded a few months prior to free agency for anything from one okay prospect (McCarthy and Masterson) to four good prospects (Garza). Dempster and Liriano were traded for two prospects and my feeling is Leake falls into that category. Two good but not great prospects may be enough.

Now, here’s the thing: the Yankees might not need to trade for a starter at the deadline. Cueto is an impact pitcher who would improve any rotation, he’s the kind of guy you get no matter who is in your starting five as long as his elbow is healthy, but Leake is a band-aid type who probably doesn’t move the needle much for New York unless they get hit with a sudden barrage of injuries, which is always possible. The Yankees have a long way to go before getting to October, but man, imagine a rotation of Cueto, Masahiro Tanaka, and Michael Pineda with Sabathia as the number four and Nathan Eovaldi throwing about 130 mph out of the bullpen in the short postseason series. Gosh.

Anyway, the Yankees are scouting Cueto and Leake because teams scout players all the time. They’re just covering their bases in case they do wind up needing rotation help or decide to make the big play for Cueto to separate themselves in the AL East. King’s report doesn’t mean the Yankees are looking to make a deal now and it certainly doesn’t mean anything is close — might be though! never know — it just means they’re doing their due diligence prior to the deadline. Expect a few similar reports involving other players in the coming weeks.

Filed Under: Trade Deadline Tagged With: Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake

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