Dec
08

Open Thread: KLaw on the Granderson trade

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There are still some minor details left to hammer out, but the Yanks, D-Backs, and Tigers have all agreed on the framework of a three-team trade that will send Curtis Granderson to the Bronx, Edwin Jackson to the desert, and various prospects to MoTown. From the Yanks perspective, it’s basically a swap of Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, and Phil Coke for Granderson, the rest is just details.

As always, Keith Law checks in with his take at the four-letter. It’s subscriber only, but I’ll quote the Yankee-relevant parts:

The Yankees also come out ahead simply because they haven’t given up much of value, and in exchange they get an above-average everyday centerfielder. Curtis Granderson is a good defensive centerfielder who hits right-handers well, is a plus runner and gets unanimous raves for his personality. In two of the last three years, however, he hasn’t cracked a .500 OPS against left-handed pitchers and his pitch recognition problems against southpaws look like they’ll be very hard to correct, meaning that the Yankees need to consider a right-handed-hitting centerfielder to caddy for him against at least good left-handed starters. That (hypothetical) two-headed monster would be among the better centerfield solutions in the American League. It’s good they got that player for Jackson, who right now projects as more of an average everyday centerfielder; Coke, a middle reliever who had lost Joe Girardi‘s trust anyway; and Ian Kennedy, who at the very least wasn’t going to crack the Yankees’ rotation again.

Should be noted: Granderson is due $25.75 million over the next three years, including the 2013 buyout.

As a prospect guy, it’s tough to see Jackson and Kennedy go, but it’s a move the Yanks really couldn’t pass up. Jackson isn’t a finished product, and the Yanks essentially swapped him for a guy that represents his best case scenario in terms of value. It would have been real nice to have Kennedy around for depth next year, but that’s the cost of doing business. Coke? Easily replaceable.

By no means is Granderson perfect. He certainly has his flaws, especially against lefties, but he’s a monumental upgrade over the Yanks’ incumbent centerfield tandem. This shouldn’t preclude the Yanks from seeking out a leftfielder, because much of Granderson’s value stems from his production at a premium position. Here’s what Joe wrote about the move at YES Network.

Anyway, here’s your open thread for the night. The Isles are in action, and The Quest For 1-81 continues in Chicago. Anything goes, so have at it.

Categories : Open Thread

465 Comments»

  1. The Artist says:

    Which is of course, an opening offer. One made with the expectation that the Yanks would counter with . . . say Brett Gardner and Ivan Nova, and the two sides would split the difference and settle on A-Jax and Z-Mac (or IPK) for Curtis Granderson.

    Deal?

    http://riveraveblues.com/2009/.....ent-707469

    Just call me Nostra-artist.

  2. What move comes next?

    • Given the reaction to this deal, I’d say the next ‘move’ would be the Arizona GM giving Cashman a Rusty Trombone.

    • dee says:

      Probably LF i would assume. That needs to be addressed for sure. Because if Damon does not return, I am sure the Yankees will go after a Corner OF with a big bat. I would not count on them making Melky as their starting LF. The next issue should definitely be pitching IMO. At this point, Roy Halladay is a pipe dream so i think Cash should consider Lackey and definitely Sheets/Harden. Our rotation is still one of the best in baseball without Halladay.

  3. 1) I still want that Justin Smoak-type bat.

    2) Granderson needs to be Sterlingized. http://www.puristbleedspinstri.....rlingized/

  4. The question of a caddy for Granderson is a good one, since he probably isn’t on the roster. It would need to be someone who can play (anywhere) in the OF who crushes Lefties. Someone like . ..oh, I dunno. . . Shelly Duncan.

  5. JobaJr says:

    I just love this deal. We got a 20-30 HR hitter for two pieces of trash and a decent prospect.

    Yes, Coke didn’t do his job this season. a 4.50 ERA out of the Pen just won’t cut it.

    • JMK aka The Overshare says:

      They’re not all-world players or anything, but IPK and Coke still have value. They’re not trash, but they are the type of players you don’t worry about losing if getting something good in return.

      • JobaJr says:

        Ok, maybe trash was a little harsh. AAAA players.

        • vin says:

          Nah, more like AAAAA players. I believe Coke and IPK can be solid major leaguers, as opposed to a AAAA player like Shelly Duncan.

          • JMK aka The Overshare says:

            Exactly. They’re better than Duncan, albeit at different positions. Duncan is too good for AAA, but really gets exposed at MLB levels since he can’t touch non-fastballs. IPK can certainly be a decent starter for the D-Backs, maybe a #4 guy with the chance to be a #3 in the future. Coke is a LOOGY, and in a big park like Comerica, would be much more effective than he would be in YS3. And if you look at his numbers, for a LOOGY, he’s pretty good.

        • Riddering says:

          Exactly why IPK is going to kill in the NL West.

          • mustang says:

            Because people RAB say so.
            LOL

            • Because people at RAB say so. don’t overreact to the typical struggles of a 22 and 23 year old pitcher making his first adjustements to starting on the big league level and remember that Kennedy is still a very talented pitcher who was the best hurler in the history of USC, better than Prior Zito and Randy Johnson and all the others, and that he dominated the minors and has lots of talent and ability.

              Fixed.

              • mustang says:

                “best hurler in the history of USC, better than Prior Zito and Randy Johnson and all the others, and that he dominated the minors and has lots of talent and ability.”

                And this MEANS NOTHING in the MLB level. Don’t overreact accomplishments in the minor levels when the only success IPK had in MLB was in September games. And before you say I hate him (like you always do) I DON’T I just think you guys overrated him and had very excuse in the book when he got hit like a punching bag.

                I wish the young man all the best.

                • mustang says:

                  Overrate not overreact.

                • mustang says:

                  I could understand the thing for Joba and Hughes, but could never understand IPK still can’t.

                • Wrong. It means SOMETHING at the MLB level.

                  It means he has upside and potential, because he’s been amazing-lights-out-dominant in high school, amazing-lights-out-dominant in college, amazing-lights-out-dominant in the minor leagues.

                  It doesn’t mean he’s going to be amazing-lights-out-dominant in the bigs, but it does mean he’s got a good probability of not continuing to be horribly suck-tastic in the big leagues. Guys who get guys out at exceedingly high rates as amateurs, collegians, and prospects tend to not be totally worthless in the bigs.

                • Mike Pop says:

                  He was still very young at the time he had his struggles. No reason to think he could never succeed in some way at the MLB level. It’s not like he just got by in the minors – he straight pwned those bitches.

                  Plus, it’s the same as with Joba and Hughes – you don’t call a prospect’s career at 59.2 major league innings.

                  That’s why. Prospects – preach patience.

                • mustang says:

                  “Plus, it’s the same as with Joba and Hughes”

                  I’m sorry its not. I saw Joba and Hughes handed MLB batters outside of September IPK is not even in the same league. I’m not saying that he will not be an OK starter someday I just think you guys overrated him. Well now he is in a weaker league and division without the DH or the pressure of the Yankees lets see what he does.

                • Mike Pop says:

                  We shall see, yes.

                  Obviously Joba and Hughes have longer leashes. But I meant it’s the same type of idea – you need to give a prospect more time before you completely call it quits.

                • mustang says:

                  To make it clear ” Ok starter” is about 12 to 14 wins era around 4 or so. Since tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada is throwing names out like Prior, Zito and Randy Johnson I think you guys are looking for 16 to 18 wins and era closer to 3.

                  This will be fun we will see.

                • But I meant it’s the same type of idea – you need to give a prospect more time before you completely call it quits.

                  Especially if that prospect has shown consistent EXCELLENCE in every step of his amateur and prospect career, which all three pitchers (Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy) have.

                • Since tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada is throwing names out like Prior, Zito and Randy Johnson I think you guys are looking for 16 to 18 wins and era closer to 3.

                  I didn’t say Kennedy will be as good as or better than Zito, Prior, or Johnson.

                  What I said was, the fact that he was better than them in college is a reason to think that he will be good in the pros, just like they were. Not as good as them, just good.

                • mustang says:

                  Point blank Is IPK ever going to be a 18 game winner?

                  Yes or No

                • Point blank: I don’t give a shit.

                  Point blank: IPK is going to be a good MLB starter, somewhere, someday, for someone. He will improve, and he has talent. Whether that makes him a 10 game winner or an 18 game winner, I haven’t the foggiest.

                  Wins are a stupid stat anyway. Kennedy will get guys out at a good enough rate to be a quality starting pitcher.

                • mustang says:

                  Or you guys give me numbers for super amateur. That’s MLB not minors.

                • mustang says:

                  So give me the numbers ” rate to be a quality starting pitcher.” if wins aren’t good enough. We need something to measure him by since we aren’t going to be see him on the regular.

                • 105ish ERA+.

                  Kennedy can do that. Probably do a 110 as well, eventually.

    • Trash? That’s silly. A-jax will likely be a solid all around player pretty soon and IPK should do well in the NL West.

      I think the Yanks made a good move, but you’re going overboard.

  6. Salty Buggah says:

    As some have said, would Reed Johnson be a good platoon parter?

  7. JMK aka The Overshare says:

    So, if we think about it in terms of Ajax, IPK, Coke for Granderson, we should also consider that we’re picking up the 1st pick in the Rule V. It’s very possible someone could come right in and fill the role IPK or Coke would have filled (though they’d have to stay on the 25-man all year, unless another deal can be struck). Even with his poor splits, as was noted, Granderson is a big upgrade, certainly worth Ajax (likely never becomes as good as Granderson), IPK (who’s really depth or a back rotation sort) and Coke (It is high, it is far, it is GONE!).

    Add Yohan Pino, Rodriguez, Lofgren or another guy able to contribute to the mix and this looks even better.

    • vin says:

      Good point.

      I was trying to think of what type of player the Yankees would select that they feel can last on the 25 man roster…

      Backup infielder? They have plenty of options there already.

      Backup catcher? Maybe… they can give Cervelli more time to develop in SWB.

      Backup outfielder? Not if Melky and Gardner stick around.

      Reliever? This seems to be the safest bet. There are more relievers on a team than any other position. Seems logical to me. The question then becomes – are they looking for a reliever, or a guy who can hide in the bullpen then move to the rotation?

  8. Tampa Yankee says:

    You guys see the only comment in Joe’s post (emphasis mine):

    SMARTell87 wrote:
    This was a great move by the Yanks. Cashman has done it again!!!! Granderson is by far the 2nd best CF in the game behind a healthy Grady Sizemore. Not only does he bring power, speed and defense, he also can bat leadoff (having Jeter bat first is stupid and I still dont agree with that to this day). We just locked up CF for years!!!! Now all we need is to grab Carl Crawford in 2011 and our outfield will be the best in baseball. LF: Crawford, CF: Granderson, RF: Melky

    WOW! Really? Having Jetes leadoff really sucked this year huh? It was horrible! Also, I love how we get Crawford and then put Melky in RF so I’m guessing Swish is the DH? This post is SMRT!

  9. Keanu Reeves says:

    Another story for you guys…

    Officiating a freshman game again tonight. The ball is being dribbled at half court when the offensive team calls a time-out. I look for my partner to give him the ball and he’s no where to be found.

    At this point, I noticed the massive pile of vomit on the baseline. Needless to say, he didn’t return, and I reffed the last quarter and a half all by myself.

    You can’t make this stuff up haha.

  10. JobaWockeeZ says:

    I admit I was a bit disappointed about the trade because I expected a couple prospects along with Granderson…But it’ll be nice watching him.

    However this winter he better get the Kevin Long treatment. I don’t him playing home run pinball in YS3. His OBP could be a tad better too.

  11. A.D. says:

    Suprise AL team for Milton Bradley?

    Melky to the Cubs, Bradley to DH?

  12. pat says:

    Granderson’s shortest HR to RF was 354 feet.

    http://www.hittrackeronline.co.....8;sort=asc

    • JMK aka The Overshare says:

      Pat, what’s your Granddaddy homer prediction for 2010?

      I’ve got 34.

    • vin says:

      Compare that to Damon’s short HR’s…

      347′
      348′
      348′
      354′
      +

      http://www.hittrackeronline.co.....8;sort=asc

      The Yanks got a guy who:
      1) hit more HR’s than any other CF last year (Kemp was 2nd with 26)
      2) will fit in perfectly with YSIII
      3) by all accounts is a great teammate and citizen

      God-speed, AJax… but this deal had to be made.

      • JMK aka The Overshare says:

        Definitely. Gotta like this deal.

      • Tank the Frank says:

        The Yanks got a guy who:
        1) hit more HR’s than any other CF last year (Kemp was 2nd with 26)
        2) will fit in perfectly with YSIII
        3) by all accounts is a great teammate and citizen

        4) needs to be platooned in CF because of his utter lack of ability to hit left-handed pitching

        I just can’t warm up to this deal because of that point. I think the Yankees gave up a lot of value here….and for a guy that you know there is no way Girardi will let bat against lefties.

        The Yankees didn’t get an everyday centerfielder. They got one half of a platoon. And they gave up a lot for it IMO.

  13. Keanu Reeves says:

    So, I know a lot of you guys are still big proponents of signing Cameron. I’m not opposed to it by any means, but does it make any less sense now that he wouldn’t be a “stopgap” for AJax?

    • He’s now a stopgap for Slade Heathcott. Or possibly Justin Upton.

      Seriously, though, the fact that the “stopgap” part is gone doesn’t change the fact that he’d be productive on a one year deal, and now that Grandy’s here, he adds a new value of being the only outfielder not named Swisher who would hit lefty pitching well.

  14. Mike Axisa says:

    Texas offered Justin Smoak and Neftali Feliz for Josh Johnson, and the Marlins said no!

    That would have been bananas.

  15. 5th Starter says:

    Great post over at LoHud refuting many of the concerns people have about Granderson. I especially like the one on batting vs. lefties

    http://yankees.lhblogs.com/200.....omes-next/ (safe)

    • Mike Axisa says:

      Paul O’Neill never had a sub-.500 OPS vs lefties, like Granderson has had in two of the last three years.

      • 5th Starter says:

        Point

      • Accent Shallow says:

        But, splits are just that: slices of a player’s ability, so we’d expect Granderson to regress towards a mean, rather than maintain that going forwards. Additionally, he’s obviously a talented hitter, so maybe he can be worked with.

        I don’t think he’ll ever be Robbie-esque and have a reverse split, but he can probably at least not kill you against LHP. And if he has to be sat against tough lefty starters, so be it.

        • Ted Nelson says:

          Going to be fun to play the Phillies again in the World Series with our shiny new CFer… Then again I guess Cliff Lee dominated everyone who faced him anyway.

          • Accent Shallow says:

            See, this argument might sway me, but I still refuse to believe Cliff Lee is any good.

            (And the Yankees hit him fine in Game 5, just Burnett and the middle relief crapped the bed)

      • JGS says:

        O’Neill for his whole career to that point (Sam Borden just mentions a couple of years earlier) was .217/.273/.327/.600

        Granderson’s line is .210/.270/.344/.614

        that means while the average O’Neill year was better, Granderson was ever so slightly better over the whole body of his work. They are/were more or less the same age (O’Neill was a year older). If Kevin Long can work out the kinks, this could turn out to be a steal

    • A.D. says:

      “I’d rather have Johnny Damon” This leads to the second part of the post — to me, getting Granderson doesn’t mean Johnny Damon is no longer an option for the Yankees at all.

      Just wanted to make sure everyone here saw this, since it seems to be a popular rationale for hating on the Granderson deal.

  16. Mike Pop says:

    I don’t know. I would think the Yankees have some kind of plan for a platoon in their mind but I have to believe they’re going to try and let Granderson figure out his problems with LHP on his own too.

  17. Evil Empire says:

    Dave Cameron loved the trade for us.

    KLaw said the Yankees benefited from it.

    Rob Neyer likes it too.

    I’m glad they all approve, those guys are objective and know their shit.

    • Yeah, but I thought Cameron was a little too hard on AZ. They have serious questions about Sherzer’s health, and nobody knows a player better than the team that’s had him from Day 1.

  18. Yanks aren’t done yet. They’re still a bit short on Starting pitching and will likely go after one of the high-upside injured guys as insurance.

    Right now, the rotation (with Andy) would be:
    CC
    AJ
    Pettitte
    Joba
    Hughes

    If one of the young guys falter and/or someone gets hurt, you could add Gaudin and/or Mitre to the group. They could really use someone from the Harden/Sheets/Wang category. Preferably, someone who won’t be ready to start the season. This way you get a good look at everyone and then make decisions.

  19. Alex S says:

    imagine the Tigers don’t protect Ajax in the rule v draft and we get him back?

  20. JMK aka The Overshare says:

    What do you guys think of maybe being able to get Soriano off the Braves by eating his salary?

    • JSquared says:

      It’s only one year… can offer him arbitration and have him possibly reject it next year, I like it.

    • I don’t know if it fits into the budget, if they really are trying to trim payroll to the $185M-$190M range in 2010. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think the payroll right now, prior to arbitration raises, is somewhere right around $170M. Add Pettitte (about $12M maybe?) to that, plus one of the LF/DH options, and you’re getting up there. Of course they may make a trade or cut some payroll in other ways, but I don’t know… I think Soriano looks like a pretty big expense that probably doesn’t fit either (1) the budget or (2) the operating philosophy.

  21. Alex S says:

    what does it take to get Soriano from the Braves?

  22. Nathan says:

    How many of the prospects that Detroit is recieving are rule V eligible and any players on their 40 man they may have to take off?

  23. TheLastClown says:

    149 159 142

    Ok, wow, this deal moved very quickly. I love it.

    Now that CF is shored up, I see a lot of folks still advocating for Cammy.

    Here’s my question: While K’s are outs, not a big deal etc., and every player has holes in his game somehwere, do you think it’s a good idea to have three 140+K players as starters in the 2010 lineup?

    Grandy’s avg K/162g is 149
    Cammy’s 159
    Swish’s 142

    Now in a vacuum, when you’re considering any one *or two* of these guys, they shouldn’t be precluded because of K’s, while they have so much other offensive value, I’ve got to pause on a 3rd.

    Especially because we were touting Cammy for his D 1st, saying that slightly above average O coming out of CF was a boon for the Yanks.

    Doesn’t Grandy fit this bill as well? Doesn’t his value take a significant hit if he’s not playing CF?

    Why would Cammy still make sense?

    • TheLastClown says:

      oops, didn’t mean to leave the #’S @ the top of my post, just put them there for reference.

    • Why would Cammy still make sense?

      Mike Cameron v LHP, career:

      .267/.370/.489 (.859)

      • TheLastClown says:

        But you’re not talking about platooning him w/ Abuelo, are you?

        • No. I’m talking about starting them side by side.

          However, he does allow us to quasi-platoon Granderson by playing Cameron-Granderson together against righties and Melky-Cameron against lefties, if we so chose.

          • TheLastClown says:

            Fair enough, but I raised the concern in my post just below about having 33% of your starting 9 be extremely K prone, or 22% – Abuelo + Melky.

            Also curious what you think about the HighPower+OBP coupled w/ K’s skill set being less desirable in the postseason?

            & I’m not saying these players can’t succeed, just perhaps having 3 of them @ once could detract from a well-balanced offensive attack against premium pitching.

    • JMK aka Small Sample Size Park Effects” Bradley, a/k/a The Overinflated Statistical Outlier a/k/a Mr. High-Hopes Dissapointer says:

      Well, we had one of the lowest K totals in the league last year. We’d also have an outfield of 3 guys hitting 25-35 home runs. You can forgive Swisher and Camron’s Ks if their OBPs remain high. Granddaddy hits 35 home runs and strikeouts are irrelevant. It’s not ideal, but three power guys are going to K a lot. The good with the bad.

      • TheLastClown says:

        Yeah, I guess, it just seems like three times that flavor is a little much.

        33% of the lineup being extremely K prone wigs me a little bit.

        Plus, in the postseason you want your team to be as well-rounded as possible. While Swish was awesome in 09, he sputtered in the playoffs, and while I’m not saying he’s “unclutch” or anything silly like that, I’m suggesting that the Power/OBP+High K total skill set might be less translatable to postseason success.

        If that’s true, then tripling it is a bad idea.

  24. JMK aka Small Sample Size Park Effects” Bradley, a/k/a The Overinflated Statistical Outlier a/k/a Mr. High-Hopes Dissapointer says:

    Wow, I can’t believe this username wasn’t taken!

    Thanks, Tommie.

  25. dee says:

    we don’t need Cameron IMO, but i do think we need another Corner OF with a nice bat. Melky won’t cut it and if Damon returns he will probably DH the majority of the time.

  26. Mike Pop says:

    I thought Granderson stole more bases.

    I want a repeat of 2007!

  27. A.D. says:

    s the Yankees, Astros and Orioles have interest in Soriano. Braves GM Frank Wren confirmed to O’Brien that at least one team has interest in both Soriano and Derek Lowe.

    Presumably the ‘Stros aren’t said team since they don’t want to add much payroll. The O’s?

  28. Teix is the Man says:

    Brian Cashman has balls of titanium. He seriously needs an appreciation thread.

  29. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....rance.html

    This Soriano stuff is maddening. Atlanta paper say Yanks, Sox, O’s and Astros are in. Sherman says the Yanks are out. Now Boston’s out, and the O’s were said to not be interested yesterday.

    I think Wren is spreading these rumors himself, to generate interest. I suspect NOBODY wants to pay Soriano 8 mil for next year, and Wren was simply caught with his pants down by offering him arb.

  30. Joey H says:

    Platoon against lefty pitching… Nady? .308 BA, .383 OBP .852 OPS. Not bad.

  31. dee says:

    I wonder if Nady is in the Yankees plans. I keep forgetting about him. If he is ready, he would be a nice DH option as well.

  32. BTW-I hated Phil Coke as much as the next good red-blooded American, but . . . who’s our 2nd Lefty out of the pen next year? Mike Dunn?

  33. Charlie Brown Christmas, ftw!

  34. ATTN: TSJC: I’m not saying the Yankees should get Bradley, but it’s worth noting that in ’08 w/the Rangers, he had an .872 OPS outside of Arlington.

    But, then again, he sucked monkey balls outside of Wrigley in ’09.

  35. Januz says:

    One thing about this deal that is understated is the clearing out of guys like IPK and Coke (Along with Bruney), who were holding down spots that could be used for Melancon Z-Mac, Dunn, and eventually Mitchell and Stoneburner.
    With the clearing out of all this dead wood. I would not be shocked in the least, to see the Yankees really have a bang up draft, and possibly set this team in good shape for the next 5 years.

  36. Joey H says:

    So in theory, this trade could open the door wide for Matsui especially if 1) Damon doesn’t come back and 2) Cameron isn’t wearing pinstripes. Right? Some of us love some of us hate Melky but I think that most people would agree that his production just isn’t enough out.

    • dee says:

      I agree with this. Melky just is not enough. Sorry. He’s a good 4th OF option or possibly trade bait, but I just don’t see him starting next year. I think he had a great year in ’09 and I’m not saying he won’t do the same. I just don’t think he was ever in the Yankees long-term plans.

    • whizkid says:

      We subtracted

    • whizkid says:

      We subtracted

    • whizkid says:

      Melky’s numbers are feeble as a corner outfielder, but given Granderson outperforms as a CF, it’s not too much of a drop-off from Damon… Considering he’s still young, cheap, and a full-time OF to keep the DH slot open for Jorge etc., I would just let Damon go now… Then maybe draft the Twins OF in the Rule 5 for depth? Look to sign Matsui 1yr@5-7M if he wants to come back as full time DH, and use 5-10M on a Sheets, Harden, Marquis…. Still shaves 10M off 2008 payroll…

  37. So, with the exit of Jackson, who else are you guys excited to watch in the minors this season?

    Obviously, The Jesus is number one on my list.

    2. Romine
    3. Heathcott
    4. Warren
    5. Banuelos
    6. Noesi
    7. Murphy
    8. Brackman

    • JMK THE OVERSHARE's Milton Bradley Fat Park Factor says:

      Viz, DeLeon, Dellin, CoJo are high on my list, too.

    • You better put Gary Sanchez on that list. Sorry I mean, Jestin Romtero.

    • TheLastClown says:

      No Arod?

      • JMK THE OVERSHARE's Milton Bradley Fat Park Factor says:

        You mean Arold?

        • TheLastClown says:

          Nope…

          Arod…

          ….ys Vizcaino.

          • JMK THE OVERSHARE's Milton Bradley Fat Park Factor says:

            Gotcha. Yeah, I think he’s more popularly referred to as “Viz.”

            I, for one, am really psyched for him.

            • TheLastClown says:

              TSJC, this one’s for you. Rather than expound this in the cozy nest 100 or so comments ago, I’ll put it right here.

              My theory: The skill set relying on OBP+Power, with 125+K/year, at the expense of BA is likely to be exposed in the postseason, due to the smaller amount of PAs, and taking them against premium pitching.

              My point: Since we already have two of these guys in our starting lineup in Abuelo & Swish, that’s 22% of the lineup that sports all the risks that this skill set raises. Ergo, we should not pursue Cammy, thus committing another 11% of the lineup to the same description.

              My crudimentary research has yielded thusly:

              Note: I am not a subscriber to baseball reference, so my search criteria was met with limited accessibility. Nor is this kind of thing my forte, but I was curious.

              Ok, so I thought of McGwire & Schmidt off the top of my head, and ran a search in B-R for OPS leaders coupled with <.275 BA & further weeded through to over 125K/year. Also precluded anyone w/ <100 postseason ABs.

              Mark McGwire:

              162 game reg. season averages: .263/.394/.588/.982 138K

              Postseason: 151 PA .217/.320/.349/.669 33K 21.9K%

              Now it’s unfair to use cumulative postseason #’s due to the sporadic PAs & the SSS. To break it down, Big Mac had 7 postseasons in which he underperformed, and 3 in which he out-performed his career averages, for a net postseason underperformance.

              Mike Schmidt:

              162: .267/.380/.527/.908 127K

              Post: 158 PA .236/.304/.386/.690 27K 17.1K%

              For Schmiddty, he had 5 underperforming postseasons to 3 mean or outperforming ones. Net underperformance.

              Jose Canseco:

              162: .266/.353/.515/.867 167K

              Post: 124 PA .184/.315/.398/.713 28K 22.9K%

              Canseco had 5 underperformances to 3 mean or outperformances, although one of the unders he only got 1 AB, so it’s more like 4 to 3. Net underperformance.

              Darryl Strawberry:

              162: .259/.357/.505/.862 138K

              Post: 145 PA .254/.345/.500/.845 38K 26.1K%

              Straw had 4 underperformances to 6 mean or outperformances. Net wash.

              Reggie Jackson:

              162: .262/.356/.490/.846 149K

              Post: 318 PA .278/.358/.527/.885 70K 22K%

              Mr. October had 7 underperformances to 9 mean or outperformances. Net outperformance.

              Jay Buhner

              162: .254/.359/.494/.852 155K

              Post: 98 PA *missed the cutoff, but he weighs in against my theory, & the 2 PA are negligible right* .306/.398/.624/1.021 28K 28.6K%

              Buhner only had 2 subpar Postseasons, compared to 5 beastly ones. Big time net outperformance.

              So we’ve got three guys who underperformed, and three guys who played to their mean level or beyond.

              I’ve got to say I’m tired of doing this, so I’m going to stop after the three guys I’m talking about.

              Mike Cameron

              162: .250/.340/.448/.788 159K

              Post: 112 PA .174/.309/.272/.581 29K 25.9K%

              5 underperformances for Cammy to 1 outperformance. Net under.

              Nick Swisher

              162: .245/.357/.460/.818 142K

              Post: 89 PA .155/.318/.254/.572 23K 25.8K%

              Swish has underperformed 5 times to 1 outperformance. Net under.

              Curtis ‘Abuelo’ Granderson

              162: .272/.344/.484/.828 149K

              Post: 59 PA .226/.288/.491/.779 10K 16.9K%

              He’s only been in the Postseason in 06, and his WS #’s really dragged down excellent performances in the CS & DS. SSS abound, net wash.

              In this limited sampling, I’ve got to say I’m thinking my theory doesn’t hold much water for guys that are excellent offensive threats, as all are on this list. All, that is, except for Cammy.

              Cammy is the least offensive of any of these guys. IMO he would add more risk than he is worth, now that we have Abuelo.

    • Mike Pop says:

      Dellin is one of my favorites so I hope he can return from his injury and do well. Same for Brett Marshall.

      Adam Warren, Heredia, and Aroldis Chapman.

    • pat says:

      L Viz,
      Jairo Heredia
      Nik Turley
      Gary Sanchez
      Kelvin Duran & De Leon
      Jose Ramirez

    • Januz says:

      McAllister and Stoneburner

    • ultimate913 says:

      I don’t care what anyone says. I’m gonna keep watching Pat V. closely.

    • Reggie C. says:

      I’m almost an hr late to the question of the night. Aw well.

      My list:
      1. Jesus Montero
      2. Heathcott
      3. Brax
      4. Man-Ban
      5. Nova
      6. Z-Mac (who gets the Show first? Mc or Nova?)
      7. JR Murphy
      8. Adam Warren (’cause he’s going to fly up the ladder)
      9. 8ht inning phenom (any # of guys)

      Honorable mention: The FAT Sanchezes

  38. pat says:

    I don’t think finding a LF is that much of a priority now. If we’re getting 30 or 35 hr from CF we can afford to a guy like Melky in LF as long as he’s playing good defense there. Grandy in CF and Melky in LF. Basicalli with Grandy in Cf instead of Damon in LF we’re taking out a 2.2 WAR and replacing it with a 3.4

    That being said, I’d still be down with signing Cammy and making Melk the 4th OF and starting him over Granderson against really tough lefties.

  39. r.w.g. says:

    I would think Melky would be able to take some of those ABs from Granderson when there is a lefty on the mound.

  40. Guest says:

    I know that charachter plays a minimal role (at best) in whether a team wins or loses. (See late 80′s Oakland A’s). I also know that a player who appears to have great character may actually be a total douche. (See Woods, Tiger).

    But, as a fan, I feel like I am really going to enjoy rooting for Granderson. He is widely respected as one of the best guys in the game.

    Combine Granderson with CC, Nick-y Swish, Tex, Captain Jetes, and this might just be the most likeable Evil Empire team yet.

    (Of course, I will admire him all the more if he helps us win).

  41. Joey H says:

    So, time for more theoretical thoughts. Adam Dunn please? I know I can only dream. Just something that crossed my mind and I thought I’d share the dream with you all.

  42. keith says:

    I found this very encouraging
    (Hat tip to poster Shaun P. @ bronxbanter)

    “As bad as Granderson has been vs LHP (career vs RHP: .292/.367/.528, career vs LHP: .210/.270/.344), let’s keep in mind that Comerica park is a very bad park for left-handed hitters.
    To whit:
    Granderson vs LHP at home, career: .179/.231/.259
    Granderson vs LHP on the road, career: .239/.306/.425″

    While a .731 OPS is no great shakes, it’s a wonderful improvement over the sub .500 OPS he posted @ Comerica.

  43. Joey H says:

    Okay, now I understand why the Nets have 1 win. Dooling just missed what looked to be a wide open layup.

  44. Mike, isn’t tomorrow………PROSPECT PROFILE TIME!!!!! yayayayayayayayayayayyy.

    Who will it be? I’m giddy with excitement.

  45. younguns says:

    I don’t like this trade at all. I’m not saying that there isn’t room for improvement in the Yankees’ outfield, but I will say that it should not be the first thing to consider for an upgrade by way of making a trade of our available prospects.

    If anything, the prospects being given up should be devoted towards an enticing package used to trade for Florida Marlins ace Josh Johnson. With AJax, IPK, & Coke, we could add either Hughes/Joba, along with Montero & another prospect if need be in order to get another top-of-the-rotation starter.

    Cashman, when asked of his priorities this off-season, stated pitching, pitching, & pitching, & then the outfield.

    Don’t even get me started on Granderson’s stats for the previous 2 years. Sure, he can use a change of scenery, but, if asked on how to best utilize the farm’s resources, Josh Johnson would be my 1st, 2nd, & 3rd options.

    Nuff said.

    • Alex S says:

      “but, if asked on how to best utilize the farm’s resources, Josh Johnson would be my 1st, 2nd, & 3rd options.”

      Felix anyone?

      • Joey H says:

        I’d give up both Joba and Hughes for Felix.

        • Mike Pop says:

          I wouldn’t. Not that Felix isn’t that awesome but just because the Yankees can just wait it out till Felix is a FA.

          When Yankees sign Felix – Felix/Joba/Hughes/Montero >>>>> Felix without whoever the Yankees give up.

      • dee says:

        Why would you give away the world for Felix when he is FA next year. Sheets or Harden can easily fill that void for a year. Hell Pettitte might only be back for one year. So there will be spots open in the rotation. No reason to give up so much for one year.

        • Joey H says:

          Next year or the year after? I thought it was the year after. Plus if you have him in your possession you have exclusive negotiating rights on a contract extension. Also worth taking note of, he said he is looking for $100m.

        • Alex S says:

          Felix still has 2 years of team control and thats not my trade proposal he’s saying he wants to give away the farm for Josh Johnson but I’m saying if i had to give those guys away i would only do it for Felix

    • Joey H says:

      You did see the trade that the Marlins turned down… didn’t you? They are pretty held-bent on not trading him.

    • If anything, the prospects being given up should be devoted towards an enticing package used to trade for Florida Marlins ace Josh Johnson. With AJax, IPK, & Coke, we could add either Hughes/Joba, along with Montero & another prospect if need be in order to get another top-of-the-rotation starter.

      Trading AJax/IPK/Coke for Granderson and keeping Joba, Hughes, and Montero
      >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
      Trading AJax/IPK/Coke AND one of Joba/Hughes AND Montero for “another top of the rotation starter”

      Your trade proposal sucks.

    • If anything, the prospects being given up should be devoted towards an enticing package used to trade for Florida Marlins ace Josh Johnson. With AJax, IPK, & Coke, we could add either Hughes/Joba, along with Montero & another prospect if need be in order to get another top-of-the-rotation starter.

      Josh Johnson is not available right now.

  46. Mattchu12 says:

    Doesn’t anybody else think that Granderson’s stats are going to go up simply because he will probably be batting in front of Mark Teixeira? I have been kind of assuming that well see a similar situation that we had going when A-Rod started batting behind Teix…

    I love the move. Jackson is the only guy that we’re going to miss here, and quite frankly, I was never in the camp that saw him becoming anything more than average.

    I’d still like to see us go after a David DeJesus type player that can provide great defense in left field and a pretty solid bat, he averaged a .281 average and a .354 OBP over the last year while hitting more than ten big flies a year over the last three seasons. That would allow us to use Johnny as the DH, and I personally like the idea of being able to use Johnny as the LF and DeJesus as the CF with the previous mentioned lefty thumper as the DH when we face lefties to avoid Granderson’s instant-out situation.

    • Eh, I don’t think they’ll go for another trade this off-season. I bet this is the only big trade the Yankees make before July ’10.

      • dee says:

        DeJesus all the way for me! What an OF that would be. DeJesus, Granderson, and Swish. Awesome Defense, Young, & CHEAP! But do we have enough for a trade? What would they ask in return?

        • I don’t think they have the pieces to do that deal now.

          • Mike Pop says:

            All I want is Pettitte, Cameron, and Aroldis.

            Is that too much to ask?

            What would that cost, 35 million?

            • JMK THE OVERSHARE's Milton Bradley Fat Park Factor says:

              Probably more than that. Cameron is probably about $10 million. Andy is about $13 mil. Chaphombre is probably around $20 mil.

          • Furthermore, in terms of overall production and total cost:

            Mike Cameron >>>>>>> David DeJesus

            • dee says:

              Yeah for a year. He’s older and I’m sorry, I just don’t like the amount of strikeouts between Cameron, Swish, and Granderson. That scares me. DeJesus is young, talented, and can offer longevity. That is…if the Yankees don’t plan on pursuing someone like Carl Crawford next year. Which is totally possible of course.

              • Cameron offsets the strikeouts with walks and home runs, as do Swisher and Granderson.

              • Mattchu12 says:

                I gotta go with Dee here. Granderslam (Yeah, it’s been Sterlingized) and Swish are going to have a lot of strikeouts. And personally, I have to wonder if Cameron will be able to handle American League pitching. As we have been able to see when an AL pitcher goes to the NL and gets better, it’s a clear picture that the offensive talent isn’t great there.

                I have to wonder if the Mike Cameron we’re thinking we’ll get is kind of like when we expect an NL pitcher to come over and be as good. Bill James is predicting big time lows for him as well, a .237/.328/.428 slash and 171 strikeouts.

                Cameron might not be the guy to go to here…

      • Mattchu12 says:

        Yeah, I am forced to agree. But you know for arguments sake, the ole sentimental Yankee Fan in me looked up the stats, and you know who is a great lefty thumper? Hideki Matsui.

        He batted more than ten points higher, hitting just two less home runs and drove in two more runs against left handed pitching than he did against right handed pitching. And he had two hundred less plate appearances against left handers than he did against right handers. That is pretty insane considering that the guy is a left handed batter.

    • I think the guy we wind up kicking ourselves over in this deal is Ian Kennedy, not Austin Jackson. I bet he does well in the NL West and in that ballpark. I’ll be rooting for him, I’ve always been a fan of his.

      • I agree.

        Counterargument: Ross Ohlendorf did well in the NL Central and in his ballpark, and that doesn’t make me miss him at all. I’m not saying they’re equitable (IPK is clearly MUCH better), but his success in a weaker league and easier park shouldn’t really change our perspective on him.

        Just how he would have done here, which I think will be “solid, but probably just a #4 at best.”

        FWIW.

        • JMK THE OVERSHARE's Milton Bradley Fat Park Factor says:

          Counter-counter argument: Ross Ohlendorf created a game theory-based algorithm to calculate the value of each heckler’s comments to the performance of the athlete being heckled.

          He saved the Pirates TONS of money. Aaaaaand he’s never been to a Perkins.

    • Mattchu12 says:

      I meant to say that DeJesus averaged those stats over the last three years, not last year.

  47. Ivan says:

    So I assume this will be yankees only significant trade this offseason.

  48. cor shep says:

    What about signing Cameron for LF/CF then also picking up DeRosa for a super utility job for whenever someone DH’s – this will give a lot of veteran players the rest they need, while also providing average defense and above average with DeRosa to fill in those positions.

    Jeter – Grand – Tex – Nails – Posada – Cano – Swish – Cam – DeRosa

    This will be the lineup everyday of course with many switched between who plays the field and who DH’s. Pretty nice right??

    Then sign Pettitte and hopefuly Sheets (if affordable) and call it an offseason.

    28

  49. Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster) says:

    The more I think about it, the more signing Cameron makes PERFECT sense. First of all our OF defense would be the off-the-charts batshit insane, but besides that Cameron is the perfect guy to play against leftie pitchers.

    So on days you face righties you can stick Cameron in LF, Granderson in CF, and Swishy in RF. And on days you face lefties just slide Cameron over and move Melky to LF.

    Not to mention he’s above average vs. righties too.

    And the best part? He costs only money.

    I REALLY hope they sign him for a year.

    • Crazy Eyes Killa says:

      The d would be so nice……and he is boys with CC….IF they can squeeze him and Andy in, that will be just about it I think until at least the middle of next year, and that team would be fully loaded, quite possibly better than the 2009 team.

      • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster) says:

        Dare I say…1998?

        Nah. Won’t risk invoking the name. Cue Mo/Melvin responses

  50. mike says:

    im thinking this really opensd up the Sox to persue Cabrera – or even the Halos – since it seems the Tigers are looking to really shed payroll.

    I can see Theo making a move, putting up with Cabrera at 1B until next year when both Papi and Lowell will be gone

    At that point, either Andersen will be up from the minors and Youk at 3B, or if Cabrera puts down the donuts and doesnt make a fool of himself at 1B they could re-sign Papi as DH and keep Cabrera at 1B.

    For the Halos he is a perfect DH and righty bat, and Moreno needs to make a splash on offense because of the departure of most of both Figgins and Vlad.

    Either way, if Bay goes to Seattle as he supposedly wished for, this might be a very interesting scenario.

    • Joey H says:

      I see it as very possible that Bay goes to Seattle and Holliday ends up back with St. Louis.

      • Crazy Eyes Killa says:

        I think it was Heyman who reported today that the Seattle interest has been overhyped, and don’t want to put up with his D, but LAA will be bidding in the end it seems

    • A) This trade makes the Tigers MORE likely to keep Cabrera, not less. This gives them the payroll flexibility to play AJax, Scherzer, Schlereth, and Coke at bargain-basement rates, get out from Granderson’s 5.5M and Edwin’s arb hearing (probably 10M total, maybe more).

      I expect them now to let Rodney and Lyon walk and not replace them in the pen (that’s Coke and Schlereth) and eat some of the Willis/Bonderman/Robertson money to try and dump one or two of them early (they’re all entering their walk years) and roll with a Verlander-Porcello-Galarraga-Scherzer-Bonine super-cheap rotation, and thus contend with a slightly smaller payroll. At the end of the season, Bonderman/Willis/Robertson/Ordonez/Inge/Laird all walk, and that’s like a good 60M in salary relief.

      B) Miggy’s only available at a BIG price. The Sox would have to bowl Detroit over to pry him away.

      Nothing to be concerned about.

  51. JMK THE OVERSHARE's Milton Bradley Fat Park Factor says:

    NCIS Los Angeles: Worst show ever OR worst show ever?

  52. Drew says:

    So assuming we sign Cam or JD, I have to think that either Melk or Grit is on the way out. We all know who I’d rather stay but I wonder what Cash & Co are thinking.. There is really no need for a 5th OFer on the 25 when you have C-Grand Swish and Cam/Melk/JD as the starters.

  53. Nady Nation says:

    Write it down – Sterling’s HR call for Grandy: “Ain’t Curtis Grand?”

  54. Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster) says:

    From Lohud:

    You are giving me those numbers which state that Cameron is a better hitter, sightly with more pop, and a better defensive player. I agree with you there, slightly better with more pop, however you are forgetting one thing.

    This team just won the WS with Melky Cabrera, who is used to playing in the bronx and has had numerous CLUTCH hit for us….why give that up for a player that has a little more pop? Why risk it???
    Melky is not the problem relaly much of an issue if he is playing LF. He was an issuein CF because his numbers werent there but LF we all can live with him there.

    A Lanny-esque coment. Pure genius.

    • Lanny says:

      Someone hasnt been listening me to for the past 2+ yrs when Ive stayed pretty clear that Melky is a solid 4th OF.

      But hey making things up, personal attacks and trying to defame someone is par for the course for some posters here. Keep up the good work, Rocky!

    • Drew says:

      If we went out and got a DH there would be absolutely no problem with Melky in Left.

  55. TheLastClown says:

    TSJC, this one’s for you. Rather than expound this in the cozy nest 100 or so comments ago, I’ll put it right here.

    My theory: The skill set relying on OBP+Power, with 125+K/year, at the expense of BA is likely to be exposed in the postseason, due to the smaller amount of PAs, and taking them against premium pitching.

    My point: Since we already have two of these guys in our starting lineup in Abuelo & Swish, that’s 22% of the lineup that sports all the risks that this skill set raises. Ergo, we should not pursue Cammy, thus committing another 11% of the lineup to the same description.

    My crudimentary research has yielded thusly:

    Note: I am not a subscriber to baseball reference, so my search criteria was met with limited accessibility. Nor is this kind of thing my forte, but I was curious.

    Ok, so I thought of McGwire & Schmidt off the top of my head, and ran a search in B-R for OPS leaders coupled with <.275 BA & further weeded through to over 125K/year. Also precluded anyone w/ <100 postseason ABs.

    Mark McGwire:

    162 game reg. season averages: .263/.394/.588/.982 138K

    Postseason: 151 PA .217/.320/.349/.669 33K 21.9K%

    Now it’s unfair to use cumulative postseason #’s due to the sporadic PAs & the SSS. To break it down, Big Mac had 7 postseasons in which he underperformed, and 3 in which he out-performed his career averages, for a net postseason underperformance.

    Mike Schmidt:

    162: .267/.380/.527/.908 127K

    Post: 158 PA .236/.304/.386/.690 27K 17.1K%

    For Schmiddty, he had 5 underperforming postseasons to 3 mean or outperforming ones. Net underperformance.

    Jose Canseco:

    162: .266/.353/.515/.867 167K

    Post: 124 PA .184/.315/.398/.713 28K 22.9K%

    Canseco had 5 underperformances to 3 mean or outperformances, although one of the unders he only got 1 AB, so it’s more like 4 to 3. Net underperformance.

    Darryl Strawberry:

    162: .259/.357/.505/.862 138K

    Post: 145 PA .254/.345/.500/.845 38K 26.1K%

    Straw had 4 underperformances to 6 mean or outperformances. Net wash.

    Reggie Jackson:

    162: .262/.356/.490/.846 149K

    Post: 318 PA .278/.358/.527/.885 70K 22K%

    Mr. October had 7 underperformances to 9 mean or outperformances. Net outperformance.

    Jay Buhner

    162: .254/.359/.494/.852 155K

    Post: 98 PA *missed the cutoff, but he weighs in against my theory, & the 2 PA are negligible right* .306/.398/.624/1.021 28K 28.6K%

    Buhner only had 2 subpar Postseasons, compared to 5 beastly ones. Big time net outperformance.

    So we’ve got three guys who underperformed, and three guys who played to their mean level or beyond.

    I’ve got to say I’m tired of doing this, so I’m going to stop after the three guys I’m talking about.

    Mike Cameron

    162: .250/.340/.448/.788 159K

    Post: 112 PA .174/.309/.272/.581 29K 25.9K%

    5 underperformances for Cammy to 1 outperformance. Net under.

    Nick Swisher

    162: .245/.357/.460/.818 142K

    Post: 89 PA .155/.318/.254/.572 23K 25.8K%

    Swish has underperformed 5 times to 1 outperformance. Net under.

    Curtis ‘Abuelo’ Granderson

    162: .272/.344/.484/.828 149K

    Post: 59 PA .226/.288/.491/.779 10K 16.9K%

    He’s only been in the Postseason in 06, and his WS #’s really dragged down excellent performances in the CS & DS. SSS abound, net wash.

    In this limited sampling, I’ve got to say I’m thinking my theory doesn’t hold much water for guys that are excellent offensive threats, as all are on this list. All, that is, except for Cammy.

    Cammy is the least offensive of any of these guys. IMO he would add more risk than he is worth, now that we have Abuelo.

    Many apologies for reposting this monstrosity.

    • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster) says:

      I’m of the theroy that it’s mostly coincidence. People slump at the wrong time, it happens. (See: A-Rod)

      • TheLastClown says:

        Right, but Arod’s skill set is more dynamic, increasing the ways in which he can rebound.

        My real point is that it would take Swish AND Abuelo to have a goot postseason to offset what would likely be a dismal one from Cammy.

        You could rotate that scenario any which way. Two of those guys have to really outperform to make up for the sinkhole of the other one.

        The reason is that they’re not elite offensive talents, so their skill set is weakened by premium pitching. I’m going to actually find a way to tally this up one of these days, my 1st attempt is admittedly poor.

        • Jake K. says:

          But won’t the majority players see a decrease in their postseason numbers given the quality of pitching? I’m not sure that’s limited to high OBP/SLG/K guys.

  56. theyankeewarrior says:

    I would like the entire RAB community to grant me this one wish for Christmas.

    Please, pretty please, stop posting your arguments for why you don’t want Mike Cameron. Do they need him like Gammons needs nudie pics of Pedroia’s older brother? No. But he fits VERY WELL into their outfield picture, with or without Granderson, Damon, Melky or Matsui.

    So please, I beg you all. Post all you want. Debate. Argue. Facebook stalk 19 year old prospects. Site flawed UZR statistics. Imagine a world without ESPN. Just please, stop making up reasons why Mike Cameron on a one year deal is not a solid pick-up for the Yankees.

    Good night.

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