Archive for Offense
Hitting the opposite way a key for Granderson in 2010
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In previewing Curtis Granderson’s season, I noted that his rebound to 2008 levels is essential for the Yankees offense. That would represent a replica of Johnny Damon’s 2009 season, making Granderson the perfect fill-in. How, though, will he return to those levels? Clearly, hitting lefties better is a good start. But what then? Where else was Granderson deficient in 2009?
Throughout his career, Granderson has hit the ball well to left field. In fact, during his first full-season in 2006 he destroyed the ball to the opposite field, hitting .388 with a .320 ISO in 107 balls directed that way. His average to left dipped a bit during his breakout 2007 season, to .265, but he still hit for plenty of power, a .184 ISO. This is the season, though, during which he started to hit for more power to right. HIs ISO when pulling went from .229 in 2006 to .441 in 2007. In 2008 Granderson again hit well to the opposite field, posting a .327 BA and .292 ISO. This was, at least in part, because he hit 25.5 percent of his balls in play that way, similar to his 24.6 percent mark from 2006. He hit 20.5 percent the opposite way in 2007.
In 2009 Granderson got back to his 2007 level distribution, hitting 21.6 percent of his balls in play the opposite way. His numbers on those balls in play dropped greatly, too, a .179 batting average and a .047 ISO. Of course, as in his 2007 season, his numbers when pulling spiked, a .385 BA and .405 ISO. Even better for him, he hit 259 balls that way, far more than at any point of his career, representing 52.3 percent of his balls in play. Yet the net effect was negative, and Granderson posted the worst BA and OBP of his career.
Granderson’s poor contact to the opposite field in 2009 shows in his batted ball splits. He hit a career high 73.6 percent fly balls to left, though it wasn’t terribly higher than his 70.8 percent mark in 2008. The difference, however, showed up in two other places. First, he hit 24.4 percent of those opposite field fly balls to the shortstop or third baseman. That means of the 79 fly balls he hit to left, 19 of them didn’t leave the infield. Even worse, zero of those 60 outfield fly balls left the yard. Granderson never flashed tremendous home run power to left, but he’s always put at least a couple out of the yard. Not in 2009.
Furthermore, Granderson hit a scant few ground balls to the left side, which likely sapped his batting average (since ground balls go for hits more often than fly balls). He hit just 8.5 percent ground balls the opposite way, about half his percentage from 2008. Also, though not as significant, he also posted a three-year low in infield hit percentage to the left side. Since most infield hits go in that direction, he further hurt his average.
While Granderson’s issues against lefties are well-documented and easily accessible, his numbers when hitting the opposite way also present cause for concern. During his run from 2006 through 2008 Granderson generally hit well the opposite way; even in his pull-happy 2007 he still far outperformed his 2009 marks. We’ve often heard that the left field porch at Yankee Stadium could help Granderson, but perhaps it could work against him. If he starts trying to put balls there it could hurt his numbers going the opposite way. As we’ve seen, his inability to hit that way in 2009 played a prominent role in his poor performance.
Photo credit: Gene J. Puskar/AP
Cano steps up into the fifth spot
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Last year Hideki Matsui held down the fifth spot in the batting order. In the 267 plate appearances when he hit behind, for the most part, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, Matsui hit .266/.360/.489 with 7 doubles and 15 home runs. With his departure this off-season, the Yankees had to find someone to replace that production, and probably more. Sorting the lineup ranked high on Joe Girardi’s priority list, and there is an early indication that he’s finished that task. His lineup card on Tuesday should reflect the Opening Day lineup, and as Mark Feinsand reports, Robinson Cano will hit fifth.
Cano actually saw the second most time in the fifth spot last year, 223 plate appearances. In those he hit .299/.318/.477, a downgrade from his season line of .320/.352/.520. His time in the fifth spot, of course, represents just a small sample, about 34 percent of his season. It’s tough to draw conclusions about his ability to hit in that spot from just a third of his plate appearances. We also won’t learn much by going into Cano’s history hitting fifth. Not only did he hit in front of and behind different hitters, but he also hit there just 61 times in his career before 2009.
The major concern with Cano’s bat in the middle of the order is his ability to hit with runners in scoring position. He should have plenty of those opportunities, since the four hitters in front of him could all have OBPs around (or, in the case of Nick Johnson, well above) .400. In 2009 he came to bat 198 times with at least a runner on second, and hit .207/.242/.332, an OPS about 50 percent lower than his season-long number. He has hit a bit better over his career, .256/.291/.398, but that’s still not a spectacular mark. It pales in comparison to his numbers with the bases empty, .331/.363/.528.
Why, then, would Girardi choose Cano to hit in this spot? As he tells it, Cano’s contact rate, the seventh highest in the majors last season, played a prominent role in his decision. If you look at the contact rate leaderboard, however, there aren’t many middle of the order bats near the top. Another factor, Cano’s high batting average, seems to make more sense on an intuitive level. Again, with four .400 OBP guys in front of him he’ll have plenty of RBI opportunities. If he hits anywhere near his .320 average from last year he’ll almost certainly drive in more than 100 in 2010.
Girardi has also said, and repeated, this spring that he believes Cano’s numbers with RISP in 2009 don’t tell the whole story. “There was a streak when he had made about 10 or 11 outs in a row with runners in scoring position, and he hit nine bullets,” he said when initially addressing the situation. “Over the long term that usually irons itself out, but when you don’t have 600,000 at-bats, it doesn’t iron out. His at-bats, a lot of times were very good with runners in scoring position. I didn’t think he had a lot of luck last year.” If Girardi is correct, and if those nine bullets find a hole this season, Cano could find himself climbing the RBI leader boards.
In terms of talent, Cano seems to fit perfectly into this lineup spot. Over his career he has demonstrated an ability to hit for average, which should play well with so many men on base ahead of him. Yet he has shown a deficiency with runners in scoring position, which doesn’t help his case for the fifth spot. If he turns it around, the Yankees will only benefit. If he does not, there are other options for the fifth spot, including Jorge Posada, Curtis Granderson, and even possibly Nick Swisher. Starting with Cano, however, seems like a solid move to start the season.
Photo credit: Kathy Willens/AP
2010 Season Preview: Banking on another rebound candidate
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In 2008 the Yankees posted their worst offensive season in recent memory. The unit finished seventh in the AL in runs scored, after finishing in the top five, and usually in the top three, since their playoff ran began. Injuries played a large role in the decline. Hideki Matsui missed the entire second half, as did Jorge Posada. Even Alex Rodriguez spent three weeks on the DL, and many think that Derek Jeter played through a wrist injury. The team also saw diminished production from a couple of its younger players, Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera. In order to succeed in 2009, the Yankees needed bounce back seasons from more than one of those players.
When Brian Cashman traded for Nick Swisher that November, he placed an even deeper reliance on the team returning to form. Not only did he need rebounds from his own players, but now needed one from an incoming player. He didn’t place a huge bet on Swisher — he cost the team only spare parts, players who wouldn’t have had a role on any future Yankees team. But at the time he was slated to start at first base, leaving the lineup with not only five players who needed to rebound, but also one, Xavier Nady, who almost certainly wouldn’t repeat his 2008 success. It was a pretty big gamble, though mitigated when the Yanks acquired Mark Teixeira later that winter.
Somehow, the plan worked out on all fronts. While Rodriguez missed the first month of the season, Posada missed a couple of weeks, and Matsui couldn’t play the field, the Yankees saw each of their rebound candidates take that step forward. This off-season Cashman cashed in a few of those chips, letting Hideki Matsui leave as a free agent and trading Melky Cabrera in the Javy Vazquez trade. Yet he apparently enjoys picking up players coming off down years, as his first major move this winter was to acquire Curtis Granderson from the Tigers. The case is a bit different than Swisher’s, mainly because the Yankees paid a lot more for Granderson, but the rebound necessity remains.
Granderson’s 2009 offensive season looks more like a follow-up to his 2006 campaign rather than his 2008. In 2006 he put his potential on display as a 25-year-old, hitting .260/.335/.438, good for a .333 wOBA while playing a mean center field. In 2009 he hit .249/.327/.453 while playing a just above average center field. He slightly improve his walk rate from 2006, to 10.1 percent from 9.7, and also increased his ISO from .178 to .204. If he had posted his 2009 line in 2007 we would have thought it completely normal. His defense regressed, but he made improvements in other areas. Even his batting average can be explained by a poor BABIP, .275, down from .333 in 2006.
Of course, 2009 did not come directly after 2006. Instead, Granderson posted an elite season in 2007, hitting .302/.361/.552, a .395 wOBA. He also continued to track down more fly balls than his fellow center fielders. His WAR that season, 7.3, was more than a win better than the next highest center fielder, Aaron Rowand at 6.1. He followed that with a quality 2008 campaign in which he hit .280/.365/.494, a .374 wOBA, though his defense dipped a bit. That dropped him in the WAR rankings, though his offensive component still ranked fifth among his peers. It was good enough, in other words, that his performance in 2009 came as a surprise.
The good news for the Yankees is that even if he repeats his 2009 he’ll still post a more valuable season than Melky Cabrera did. Of course, the Yankees are looking for a bit more than that, since Granderson, along with Nick Johnson, is charged with replacing two of the heavier bats from the 2009 Yankees. A return to his 2008 form seems a feasible expectation, though his 2007 appears to be an outlier in almost every sense. Still, a.374 wOBA, at .280/.365/.494, would essentially replace Damon’s 2009 production.
How do the projection systems see it?
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Unsurprisingly, this checks in right around Granderson’s career line of .272/.344/.484. It would represent a modest improvement over his 2009, but when the Yankees traded their No. 2 prospect for him in December they likely expected more. I’m confident Granderson can deliver, too. He clearly has the tools, and now he’s surrounded by much better hitters than in the Detroit lineup. He’ll also face a lot less pressure as he moves from the leadoff spot to the bottom of the order (though I think there are worse ideas than trying him in the five hole).
The gamble on Granderson is clear. Cash in two winning chips, Matsui and Cabrera, and put another one down on the table. Again, because of what theYankees surrendered its a bit bigger gamble than they placed last year, but I think still a winnable one. If it does pay off, the Yankees will reap the benefits not only in 2010, but also over the next few years of Granderson’s contract.
Photo credit: Gene J. Puskar/AP
Tex’s early season woes not shared by other switch hitters
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In his excellent first base preview, Mike wrote about Mark Teixeira’s early season struggles. His April 2009 was particularly poor, perhaps due to the wrist injury that sidelined him for a few games early on. A recovery even to his career April line of .249/.349/.433 would be helpful in 2010. Yet, as is evident from the triple slash, Teixeira’s career numbers in April far fall below his overall performance. His explanation involves working on two swings, one from each side of the plate, during spring training, so it takes him a bit of the season to get into a groove. Makes sense, right?
Maybe it does make sense for Teixeira himself, but as Raphy at the B-R blog notes, his fellow switch hitters do not share this predicament. Raphy ran the numbers on every switch hitter from 2000 through 2009 and compared their April numbers to the rest of the season. The difference, it turns out, is negligible. Switch hitters hit for a .005 better batting average, a .001 worse OBP, and a .007 better SLG. Some or all of those differences can probably be attributed to generally better production in later months. In fact, in three of the last five years the league posted its worst slugging month in April.
This made me wonder how some of the other top switch hitters in the game fared. While as an aggregate switch hitters performed just as well in April as they did the rest of the season, this covers over 285,000 plate appearances. Clearly there will be some players in there who just weren’t as good, and were consistently not as good. Maybe there’s some kind of trend when we look at only the top switch hitters of the past decade.
No, that doesn’t change the story at all. In fact, a few of the players have hit better in their teams’ first 25 games than in the rest of the season. It appears, then, that these switch hitters don’t take an extra month to get into the groove. Maybe it’s something specific to Teixeira, or maybe it’s something else entirely that keeps down his season numbers.
If in April Tex had hit to the .310/.392/.596 rate he did for the rest of the season, might that have given him a better shot at the MVP? That would have given him 33 hits, 13 walks, 17 singles, 8 doubles, 1 triple, and 7 home runs, increasing his season totals by 14 hits, 7 singles, 4 doubles, 1 triple, and 2 home runs. While that’s probably not enough to win MVP in a league where Joe Mauer raked from the catcher position, it might have been enough to help the Yankees add a few more early wins. According to linear weights, Teixeira created 14 runs through May 7. Had he hit to his season totals, he would have created around 25 runs. That might have won them another game or two.
We take the trade-off, of course, in a heartbeat. Teixeira does struggle in April, and given his past there’s no reason to expect 2010 will be different. But the way he hits the rest of the season makes up for it. Perhaps the return of Alex Rodriguez, historically a strong April performer, will help offset Tex’s struggles. If he does buck the trend, even for one season, we could certainly see an MVP performance from Teixeira.
Photo credit: Kathy Willens/AP
The whole picture for the No. 2 hitter
Posted by: | CommentsOver the past few days we’ve looked at a few aspects of a quality No. 2 hitter. We want someone who will get on base and set the table for the heart of the order, but who also won’t ground into double plays when the leadoff man reaches. As it turns out, the guy who gets on base more grounds into far more double plays. Will those twin killings hurt the team more than his presence on the base paths helps it?
Since we’re working with the theoretical here I’ll use the Bill James projections, mostly because they assume a greater run environment. We really could have used any system, though, since we need only compare the systems to themselves.
Getting on base for Teixeira
Bill James projects Granderson to reach base in 35.3 percent of his plate appearances, and Johnson to reach in 41.4 percent. To make things easier, we’ll scale this to 600 plate appearances, which lies between each of their projections. That means Johnson would reach 248 times to Granderson’s 212. Beyond the obvious observation that Johnson would reach base 36 more times than Granderson, it also represents some fraction of those 36 where Granderson would end an inning.
That last point, I think, is sometimes overlooked when discussing players reaching base. Clearly, Johnson won’t keep 36 innings going where Granderson would end one. But if that’s true for even a third of them, it’s a dozen innings where Teixeira hits with a man on base rather than starting the next inning with the bases empty. Over his career Teixeira has hit .295/.400/.555 with men on base and .285/.357/.535 with the bases empty. Those dozen situations, then, could lead to a few extra runs over the course of a season.
Keeping Jeter on the base paths
Given the same number of plate appearances, we know Johnson will make fewer outs than Granderson. Unfortunately, sometimes the outs Johnson makes count double. He has come to the plate 594 times in his career facing a double play chance, and has hit into it 72 times, or 12.1 percent of the time. How much, then, does this offset his ability to get on base?
The Bill James projections peg Jeter for 152 singles and 64 walks, or 216 times reaching first base. It also projects him to bat 631 times, so we need to scale down the number to 600 PA, which puts it at 205 times. At a 12.1 percent GIDP rate, Johnson would erase Jeter 26 times. Granderson, however, grounds into a double play just 4.4 percent of the time, so he would erase Jeter only 9 times. That’s 17 additional instances, or 34 additional outs, for Johnson.
We often say that the most important thing a player can do at bat is not make an out. Each team gets only 27 outs per game, and only three before they have to clear the bases and start over, so those outs are the most valuable assets in the game. Using straight OBP in a 600 PA environment, we can expect Johnson to make 352 outs and Granderson 388. Once we add in their twin killings, though, we see that Johnson projects to make 378 outs and Granderson 397 — and that’s just considering Jeter’s instances of reaching first base.
More than one way to think about it
Clearly, the double play situation does not bode well for Johnson. He still projects to make fewer outs than Granderson, but the double plays make that a lot closer. Like all baseball issues, however, there are plenty more ways to look at the comparison.
Yes, Johnson might erase Jeter in 26 of the 205 times he reaches first base. No one wants to see that. But the flip side presents the number of times both Jeter and Johnson will reach base. Scaled to 600 PA, Jeter figures to reach base, but not hit a home run, 237 times. Holding consistent Johnson’s .414 OBP, that means that 98 times Teixeira will come to the plate either with both Jeter and Johnson on base, or otherwise with Johnson on base with Jeter sitting on the bench and a run on the board. With Granderson that figure falls to 84 instances.
Granderson, however, has a bit more power than Johnson right now. Scaled to 600 PA, Granderson projects to hit 51 extra base hits, which represents 8.5 percent of his plate appearances. Then again, Johnson projects to hit 49 extra base hits when scaled to 600 PA, so it might not be that big a difference. The enormous caveat here is that we’re scaling down Granderson’s and scaling up Johnson’s. I know it shouldn’t make a huge difference, but I feel a bit more comfortable with the former.
What about their results once they’ve reached base? According to Baseball Prospectus’s EQBRR, Granderson added 1.9 runs on the base paths. That doesn’t seem like a huge amount, especially for a player with his speed. Then again, his OBP fell to .330, which certainly plays a part. In 2008, when his OBP was .365, Granderson generated 5.8 runs on the base paths. Johnson was worth -2.1 runs on the bases, which doesn’t seem that bad considering his lack of speed. Still, we’re looking at something like a seven-run swing at 600 PA.
So who hits second?
From all indications, it’s Johnson. At this point, with a clean slate, I think that’s the right call. Even when factoring in double plays he makes fewer outs than Granderson, which means more opportunities to hit with men on base for Teixeira and A-Rod. At the outset that should be the No. 1 concern.
Of course, if the DPs become a problem, they could consider a swap. Granderson doesn’t figure to be a black hole in the two hole by any stretch. He can get around the bases, and he won’t erase Jeter too many times. But with the presence of Johnson on the roster, he’s the second best man for the job.
Avoiding the twin killing in the two hole
Posted by: | CommentsIn discussing the merits of a No. 2 hitter, I hit on the value of setting the table. Because Nick Johnson gets on base at a better clip than the other candidates, he’ll create more opportunities for Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez to hit with men on base. But, while getting on base factors prominently into the quality of a No. 2 hitter, other issues can change the situation. For instance, what if the No. 2 hitter, who gets on base at a high clip, also grounds into a lot of double plays? Wouldn’t that sap his value?
About a year ago, while he was working with Team USA, I made a further argument for Derek Jeter the leadoff hitter. Beyond the reasons we’d heard a thousand times — Jeter got on base more than Damon while Damon had more power than Jeter — I thought another factor played prominently. In 2008 Jeter hit into 24 double plays, the highest number of his career. Many times, I’m sure, these double plays came after Damon reached safely. Damon, though, is historically good at avoiding double plays. Flipping the two, then, seemed obvious.
Just a few days after that post, Joe Girardi announced that he would make that very flip. The results, as we saw, reflected the projection. Jeter hit into fewer double plays. Damon hit into more, but that’s going to happen when the guy in front of you gets on base 40 percent of the time. This raises an interesting point. We don’t learn much from raw GIDP numbers, because they’re not placed in any context. What we seek is some kind of rate for GIDP — how many times the player hit into a double play when presented the opportunity. That seems like relevant information for a No.2 hitter.
Thankfully, Baseball Reference does have information about double play opportunities (under More Stats, then Situational Hitting).* So, among Johnson, Curtis Granderson, and Robinson Cano, who has hit into the most double plays per opportunity? We’ll add in Damon for comparison.
*When I originally wrote this article, I had no idea this existed. Thanks to B-R founder Sean Forman for pointing me in the right direction. This table is totally accurate.
| Player | GDP | Opp | Pct. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson | 72 | 594 | 12.1 |
| Granderson | 18 | 410 | 4.4 |
| Cano | 94 | 670 | 14.0 |
| Damon | 84 | 1591 | 5.3 |
Does Johnson’s GIDP propensity offset his better on-base skills? Sound like a good idea for another follow-up article.
Sending Teixeira to bat with men on base
Posted by: | CommentsSimple concepts dictate baseball lineup construction. The top two hitters in the order get in base so that the heavier hitters in the middle of the lineup can drive them in. This is why we typically see the best power bats in the 3-4-5 spots, while the lighter hitting players bat on either side. Teams can run into problems, however, in filling the first two spots.
Again, the primary goal of the first two hitters is to get on base for the power hitters. That gives the heavier bats more opportunities to knock in runs. The problem in filling the first two spots relates back to those power guys. Oftentimes they’re also the best on-base guys on the team. In fact, on-base skills don’t come easy to players who lack power. Among active players, only five have a career OBP over .350 and a career ISO under .120: Luis Castillo, Chone Figgins, Jason Kendall, Mark Loretta, and Ichiro. Raising the ISO to .150 adds only eight names (including Derek Jeter). This is not an easy to find skill, on-base without power.
As a substitute for on-base skill, we often see teams place speedy hitters in the first and second slots. The rationale goes, so I assume, that they can advance more bases, both by stealing and by taking the extra bag on a base hit. The problem, of course, is that they don’t get on base a lot in the first place, so they can’t swipe or take an extra bag very often. Even then, with the heart of the order due up, the most important thing remains having runners on base. I’d far rather have a slow runner on base 40 percent of the time than a fast runner on base 34 percent.
This concept applies to one of the few decisions the Yankees must make in spring training. While Brian Cashman has stated his desire to have Nick Johnson hit second, it doesn’t appear to be a given at this point. It should be, but it’s not. The alternatives include Curtis Granderson and, to a lesser extent, Robinson Cano. Both might be solid No. 2 hitters, but with Johnson on the roster they’re not the best options. WIth Jeter and Johnson setting the table, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez will come to bat with more men on base.
Photo credit: Eric Gay/AP
To illustrate this point, let’s take an ideal scenario. Jeter and Johnson both hit in front of Teixeira for all of Teixeira’s plate appearances, and they OBP somewhere around their 2009 totals, .400 and .420. Running a quick percentage check, this means that Teixeira would come to bat with both runners on 16.8 percent of the time, and at least one runner on about 65 percent of the time. Given Teixeira’s 707 plate appearances from 2009, that means he’d come to bat with at least one runner on 460 times, and two runners on 119 times.
(This, of course, discounts the double play, but it also discounts the No. 9 hitter getting on. Let’s call it a wash for now, though if someone wants to run the numbers be my guest.)
Last year, with Jeter’s .400 OBP and Damon’s .365, Teixeira had a 14.6 percent chance of coming to the plate with both runners on, or 62 percent with at least one runner on. That gives him a theoretical 438 PA with a runner on base, and 103 with two runners on . His actual number of plate appearances with a runner on base was 371, a bit below the theoretical mark. This is due to double plays — Damon hit into nine last year — instances where Jeter made the last out of the inning, and times when Damon hit a home run. We also can’t expect the numbers to line up exactly.
Assuming an even ratio of theoretical plate appearances with a runner on to the actual number, that would give Teixeira 389 PA this season with at least one runner on, an increase of 18 instances. In other words, that’s 18 more opportunities for a double or home run to plate an extra run. Then there’s the cumulative effect. If Jeter and Johnson getting on base increases Teixeira’s chances of success, that can further increase A-Rod’s chances of success. We can continue passing the buck down the lineup.
If Granderson recovers to his 2008 form, he’s essentially a clone of Damon. While that’s good, and while he’ll be able to take extra bases that Johnson will not, I think that the added plate appearances give the Yankees a bigger advantage. It means more opportunities for Tex and A-Rod. While Granderson might be able to score from second, or even first, in a few more instances than Johnson, he won’t be on base as much and therefore won’t get as many opportunities.
Joe Girardi has many options when filling out his lineup card, especially in the No. 2 spot. The three players who could hit there each bring a different skill to the table. Cano can advance runners with base hits and hit them in with power. Johnson can get on base to set the table and also hits for decent average (hopefully his power recovers a bit). Granderson can clear the bases with power and circle them with speed. Given the number of times he figures to be on base, I think Johnson is the choice here. The thought of Teixeira and A-Rod coming to bat with more runners on base should make any Yankees fan salivate.
Lining a pitch up the middle is not progress
Posted by: | CommentsCurtis Granderson can help a ball club in a number of ways. He can play a solid center field. He can hit for power. He can get on base at an above-average clip, and afterward he can motor around the bases. But as we learned in 2009, the mere ability to do something doesn’t necessarily bring results. Granderson can get on base at an above-average clip, but in 2009 he didn’t. Since he’s done it before, we don’t say that he can’t, but rather that he didn’t. In the same way, just because he hasn’t hit lefties well in the past doesn’t mean he can’t.
Photo credit: Kathy Willens/AP
It appears that questions about Granderson’s ability to hit lefties will surround him this spring. We’ve already heard stories about him working with Kevin Long on ways to better approach lefty pitchers. Those are encouraging, but far from a sign that Granderson will put his woes behind him. Still, that won’t stop certain newspapers from taking one small detail and making a huge deal out of it. Apparently, according to the NY Post, hitting a line drive in batting practice off Kei Igawa represents progress. Oh, the crazy storylines of the spring.
I agree with SG’s statement that Granderson will probably never hit well against lefties, but that he can certainly outperform his career numbers to this point. One aspect of splits that often goes unmentioned is the small sample they provide. Granderson has come to bat 2,896 times in his career, but only 24 percent of those have come against lefties. That leaves his total at 685, or just under a full season’s worth of plate appearances. We don’t judge a player based on a single year of his career, so why would we judge Granderson based on one year’s worth of data?
Because of this small sample against lefties, we need to regress the figures in order to get a better idea of Granderson’s true skill against lefties. Thankfully, Matt Klaassen of FanGraphs already did the calculation, which adds 1,000 plate appearance of league average splits to Granderson’s existing 685 PA. If Granderson hits to his CHONE projected .359 wOBA, we can expect that to be .374 against righties and .311 against lefties. That .311 number is still below average, and it’s even blow the .323 wOBA he posted against lefties in 2008. It is, however, a bit more optimistic than CAIRO, which pegs him at .299 against lefties, and certainly better than his .266 career wOBA split.
Deliberate and focussed practice could help Granderson even further against lefties. Again, echoing SG, we can’t really expect Granderson to make leaps in his split figures, but it’s certainly possible. We saw such a transformation first hand in Paul O’Neill. While in Cincinnati O’Neill hit lefties poorly, routinely posting OPS numbers in the .500 range. Even in his first year with the Yankees he struggled against lefties. But then, at age 31, he came around, posting OPS numbers in the .700 range or better for the next five seasons. We might set ourselves up for disappointment by expecting Granderson to make the same transformation, but we know that it is certainly possible.
The discussion of Granderson’s skills and results against lefties reminds me of what a good all-around player he is. We’re not questioning his defense, his speed, or his ability to get on base. Instead, we’re focussed on his performance in fewer than a quarter of his plate appearances. I think we’ll all be satisfied with his performance in the other 75 percent, and maybe even a bit more satisfied with that 25 percent sample.
Instead of talking about A-Rod talking, let’s just talk about A-Rod
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Spring Training went a bit differently last year. The players reported earlier because of the WBC, and by February 26 were already playing games. In fact, Alex Rodriguez hit a homer in his spring debut exactly one year ago today. This year we’re still in the batting practice and press conference mode, and that too has a different flavor than last year. That happens when you’re addressing a PED scandal one year and a World Series championship the next.
Want to read about what A-Rod said? You can find stories, quotes, and even full audio on basically any other Yankees-related website. If you want a quick summary, he basically repeated everything he said last year. The team felt like a family, he put all distractions aside and focussed on baseball, his hip feels great, etc. In fact, the most interesting part of the press conference came not from Rodriguez himself, but instead from MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo.
Now, with eight seasons and some $216 million — plus a few historic incentives — remaining on his contract, Rodriguez is about to embark upon a most critical segment of his career. These next few seasons are the ones that will define him in history — either as a very good player who did a few special things, or as one of the most sensational, remarkable talents to play the game.
I’ll echo Craig: That undersells A-Rod. By the numbers he’s a Hall of Famer right now. Not just because he has 500 home runs, but that he hit 344 of them as a shortstop, one behind Cal Ripken for the all-time lead. He’s currently 22nd on the all-time third baseman home run list with 229, remarkable considering he’s only played the position for six seasons. His 99.1 career WAR ranks 21st all time, and he should pass Cap Anson sometime in April. In terms of Yankees lore, in 2005 he became the first Yankee right-handed hitter since Joe DiMaggio to hit 40 home runs in a season.
DiComo is right that the next few seasons will define A-Rod. Very good, however, is out of the question. He’s already a great player. Without hesitation I’d define him as one of the most sensational, remarkable talents to play the game. The next few years will decide whether he’s among the 10 best players of all time. Will he hit another 131 home runs as a third baseman, placing him third all-time? Will he add another 50 to that and become the career home run leader? Will he pick up another 469 hits to reach 3,000?
Most importantly, at least to us, will he win another championship? Another two? Three? How greedy are we? As greedy as A-Rod himself, I suppose. “It becomes an addiction,” he said of winning the World Series. If he keeps doing what he’s done during his first six years in New York, he’ll play his part in future championship efforts. Maybe he’ll even break a few records along the way.
Photo credit: Kathy Willens/AP
Concerns with Yanks run up the middle
Posted by: | CommentsOne reason I love the Curtis Granderson acquisition is the offense he provides at a premium position. As they currently stand, the Yankees have above average hitters at all four up the middle positions. It means they can afford to have average players at other positions. The Yankees have done this in the past, with tremendous results. Many of their championship teams and dynasties have been built around premium up the middle players. As Jay says:
Historically, the two most decorated positions on the Yankees are center field and catcher. With the exception of the 1920’s dynasty when they had both Ruth and Gehrig, when they were at their best, the Yankees have featured great players in both positions. Dickey and DiMaggio; Berra/Howard and Mantle; Munson and Murcer; Posada and Bernie. Add to that Rizzuto and Jeter at shortstop and the Yanks have a storied history of finding excellent talent at premium defensive positions.
He’s responding to an article wherein Rob Neyer claims that the Yankees might have a weakness growing forward. That weakness, strangely, is that Mark Teixeira might be their best player. He doesn’t play a premium position, so Neyer’s reasoning goes that the Yankees could be weaker because of it. I agree with Jay that I understand the point Neyer’s trying to make. I just don’t buy it.
The Yankees have put an emphasis on catcher recently, drafting and signing many young players in hopes that one or two pans out. They also have relatively young players at second base and center field. Neyer bases his case on 2011, when both Granderson and Robinson Cano will still be young and should still outproduce most of their peers. By that time we might see the first of Jesus Montero and perhaps Austin Romine. It appears shortstop is the only weakness in this equation, though it appears the Yankees are in no hurry to replace Derek Jeter.
Could the Yankees face issues in the future with up the middle talent? Sure. Any team can. But I don’t think it’s a sign of weakness that Teixeira might be their best player for the next few years. The talent is there, and as we’ve seen the team will do what it takes to reload.
In closing, I’d like to address one self-answered question in Neyer’s post:
Is there anyone now on the Yankees’ roster with a decent shot at being the best player in the American League in 2011? One of the five best players in the league? I don’t think so.
So Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira don’t have a decent shot at being a top five player in the AL in 2011? No, I think they very much could rank among the best five AL players next season, and I don’t see any reason right now to think why they wouldn’t.
