Mar
17

2010 Season Preview: Burnett and Sabathia could be even better in ’10

By

When the Yankees signed CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett a year ago, they believed they were getting, at best, a pair of aces or, at worst, a No. 1 and a No. 2. In year one they got the latter. Sabathia pitched as well as anyone could have expected, tossing 230 innings at a 3.37 ERA, fourth lowest in the AL. Burnett might not have been a second ace, but he pitched capably behind Sabathia, posting the fourth best strikeout rate in the AL. Both could make improvements and perform even better in 2010.


Photo credit: AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese

There are concerns that career highs in innings pitched could adversely affect Burnett and Sabathia. Neither set career highs during the regular season. In fact, both had set that mark in 2008, when Sabathia pitched 253 innings and Burnett pitched 221.1. In 2009 the Yankees had leeway later in the season to give them a rest, and it led to Burnett pitching 14 fewer innings, while Sabathia, not pitching every fourth day in a tight pennant race, managed 23 fewer innings. The playoffs, of course, pushed them both above their career highs. Sabathia threw 36.1 innings in the playoffs for a total of 266.1, 9.2 innings over his career high. Burnett threw 27.1 playoff innings for a total of 234.1, 13 more than his career high.

Put this way, it doesn’t appear either pitcher worked much harder than in 2009. In fact, they might have put less stress on their arms. Sabathia’s 2008 season started on March 31 and ended on October 2, 186 days. That works out to 6.9 innings every five days. In 2009 he started on April 6 and ended on November 1, 210 days. That works out to just about 6 1/3 innings every five days. Burnett’s 2008 season started on April 2 and ended on September 24, 176 days, or just under 6 1/3 innings every five days. In 2009 he started on April 9 and ended on November 2, 208 days, or just under 5 2/3 innings every five days. Both of their workloads, spread over time, were lower in 2009 than in 2008.


Photo credit: Kathy Willens/AP

The sheer number of innings each pitched still causes concern, of course, and the Yankees have taken steps to mitigate that this spring. They’ve exercised caution with all three of their postseason workhorses, and will likely use the sparse April schedule to spread out their early starts. The idea, of course, is to have them pitching like normal as the season moves on, rather than like a pair of pitchers fatigued by the added workload of a postseason run. If this works out as planned, both Sabathia and Burnett could make improvements that could help them realize the Yankees’ goal of having a pair of aces atop the rotation.

Burnett knows that he walked way too many batters in 2009, and he has made it his goal to improve that rate in 2010. That plays into his other goal of pitching deeper into games. What could further help him in that second goal is inducing ground balls at his career rate. In 2009 Burnett induced a career low 42.8 percent ground balls. His career rate is 49.5 percent. More ground balls typically means a higher BABIP, since ground balls go for hits more often than fly balls. Burnett could mitigate this increase by improving his walk-rate. That works out better than a wash, since ground balls can also lead to double plays, which can erase some of those walked batters.

Another area where Burnett could see a return to his career marks is his performance against right-handed hitters. He struck out just 7.09 righties per nine innings, well below his marks from previous seasons. He was as high as 8.91 per nine in 2008. His walk rate against righties also shot up to 4.34 per nine, more than a full walk per nine more than 2008, and his .284 batting average against represents the worst of his career. Perhaps adding a changeup to his arsenal will help in this regard. Even if he doesn’t, a simple return to his career norms would represent a big improvement over 2009.

Like Burnett, Sabathia also saw his groundballs dip. While he had hovered around 45 percent over the previous three seasons, he dropped to about 43 percent in 2009. That’s not a huge change, but it hurts when combined with his increased fly ball rate, 37.3 percent. That’s not much above his pre-2008 norm, though, and it’s doubtful he’d get that number as low as the 31.7 mark he posted in 2008. Still, a few more groundballs can never hurt. Sabathia’s walks were also up a bit, 2.62 per nine, but not significantly so. It led to his four-year high in FIP, but even then he was at 3.39.

In terms of the small stuff, Sabathia saw a few changes in 2009. His strikeout rate dipped and his walk rate spiked with men on base. His strikeout rate with men on base, 6.70 per nine, looks a bit worse because of his outstanding 8.12 mark in 2008, though it still sits a bit below the ~7.00 rate he posted in 2006 and 2007. His walk rate, 3.30 per nine with men on base, is over his career norms and way over his totals over the previous three years. In his Cy Young season, 2007, he walked just 1.08 per nine with men on base. He also saw a dip in his K/9 against lefties, to 9.94. He had been around 12 per nine from 2006 through 2008.

Yet even as they both slipped in some areas, both Sabathia and Burnett performed to expectations in 2009. If they improve on any of those aspects in 2010, they could easily exceed expectations. Chances are the projection systems won’t see it that way, but we’ll check them anyway.

Sabathia:

Click for larger

So, in other words, when we average out the forecasts we get a near replica of CC’s 2009 season.

Burnett:

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Sabathia and Burnett were a big part of Brian Cashman‘s plan to bring the Yankees back to the World Series, and obviously that worked out pretty well. They both performed well during their debut seasons in the Bronx, and could see improvement in their second. There is certainly some concern from their having exceeding previous innings highs, but not only did they spread those innings over more time, but they also only modestly increased over their 2008 marks. With those two heading the rotation, the Yankees finally have that dominant feel. Not only can they mash, but they can win the 2-1 games, too.

Categories : Pitching
  • Jose

    Joe, on the almost one year anniversary of you predicting that Burnett would win the Cy Young last year, would you like to go double or nothing this year?

    • Rose

      He can’t exactly double his nothing from last year though (Burnett didn’t win). So basically he’d just be betting again…wouldn’t he? lol

      • Spaceman.Spiff

        People do say double or nothing when they lose a bet though. Which usually means doubling the loss or “nothinging” the loss.

        • Rose

          Very true. Wasn’t thinking like that. Then again, I’m not really a gambler. lol oh well

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph Pawlikowski

      You have been waiting to use that one, haven’t you?

      As much as I’d love to see it, after a year of having A.J. on staff it’s pretty clear why he’ll never be a Cy candidate. Still a solid No. 2.

      • http://mystiqueandaura.com Steve H

        You should either Pearlman that prediction, or O’Connor that prediciton. While I’d prefer Pearlman because I think it’s even worse journalistic integrity, it is St. Patty’s Day after all, so O’Connor it might be the choice.

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph Pawlikowski

          I was also asked for a “bold” prediction. So it’s not like I was saying that the Yankees made the best signing because A.J. is going to dominate.

          • http://mystiqueandaura.com Steve H

            Funny how Jose left out the “bold” part of the prediction. That’s alright, I can guarantee you my sleeper this year for the Cy is much crazier than Burnett.

            • bexarama

              oooh, who is it? (I guess you’re gonna post it on M&A?)

              • http://mystiqueandaura.com Steve H

                Yup, you’ll have to wait and see.

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

                  If I guess it right, blink twice.

                  Scott Feldman.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

              Dice-K.

              /Gammons’d

              • bexarama

                /my mom’d (sadly enough)

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

                  You should force your mom to read RAB and then have recap discussions. We’ll knock some sense into her.

      • Tom Zig

        If Burnett went an entire year without “bad AJ” ever showing up and 75% of his starts were “good AJ” and the other 25% were somewhere in between bad and good. Would that be good enough to win the cy-young?

        Did that make any sense?

        • bexarama

          so if an essential part of what makes AJ Burnett such a frustrating pitcher at times never showed up, he’d be a really good pitcher? ;)

          If bad AJ never showed up and good AJ showed up 75% of the time, that means most of AJ’s starts would be like Game 2 of the WS. Yeah, I’d say that’d be pretty darn good. Good enough to win the Cy, well we’d have to see what other people in the league were doing. But he’d certainly be in contention. However, it’s not happening.

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

    Fun Fact:

    CC Sabathia, total batters faced (regular season and postseason combined):
    2005: 823
    2006: 802
    2007: 1052
    2008: 1044
    2009: 1082

    AJ Burnett, total batters faced (regular season and postseason combined):
    2005: 873
    2006: 577
    2007: 691
    2008: 957
    2009: 1018

    What does all that mean? I have no idea.

    • Jose

      I suppose a smaller BF/IP ratio would be good.

    • Thomas

      Interesting fact, Sabathia and Burnett faced 2100 batter combined.

      The Mets top 4 of Maine, Pelfrey, Perez, and Santana faced 2198 batters combine.

      What does this mean? The Mets suck.

      • pat

        Interesting fact, I have a belly button.

        What does this mean? The Mets suck.

        • dkidd

          interesting fact, omar minaya would give your belly button 5/75M and stick him at first base

          • bexarama

            and it’d be an improvement on Murphy

            • dkidd

              lateral movement at 1st:

              pat’s belly button >>> daniel murphy >>>>>>>>>>> mike lowell

  • Accent Shallow

    I’m under the impression that it’s not necessarily the extra innings, it’s the shorter offseason, since you’re pitching an extra month.

    To that end, I can certainly support taking it easy or CC/AJ/Andy (especially Andy) in the early going.

  • mryankee

    Again modest projectsions CC can win the Cy Young that would be nice and maybe AJ wins 20.

    • Dirty Pena

      And maybe Brett Gardner bats .420?

      • mryankee

        I like to believe the key guys will perform hiher than the projections. No reason why both AJ and CC with this quality of team and their quality of stuff should not be better than projected.

        • Dirty Pena

          Nah, you’re right. I just think a Cy and 20 wins (for two different guys) is a little over-optimistic. But I’ll take overly optimistic over overly pessimistic any day of the week.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

      In the same league with Greinke + Felix and Lee in that cavernous ballpark, the odds of CC or AJ winning a Cy probably aren’t good.

      Doesn’t mean they won’t both be pimpshit this year, just saying someone will probably be better.

      • radnom

        You can say the same thing about any individual pitcher. It is always smarter to take the field.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

          Yup. Particularly when certain members of that field have strategic advantages, like pitching in a huge pitcher’s park and NOT pitching in the AL East.

          I don’t know where to find things like the Vegas odds, but I’d imagine that Felix, Lee, and Greinke have to be the favorites so far.

          • king of fruitless hypotheticals

            meh.

            Wins count more than any other stat right? (for THEM! THEM! not us! sheesh. lay off my email statgeeks!)

            CC wins 23 and AJ wins 20, i bet somebody writes an article that says CC is not only NOT the Cy Young winner, he isnt the best pitcher on the team, and then proceeds to mis-apply some advance sabremetric to support his argument.

            (yes, he also called it a kosher hot dog on the way…)

      • Chris

        I agree. With Felix and Lee pitching in that joke of a stadiunm in Seattle, they should have plenty of advantages over Sabathia pitching in the more reasonable Yankee Stadium.

        • http://www.audiencesounds.com/ Templeton “Brendog” Peck

          but will sea score runs?

    • Tom Zig

      I like turtles.

    • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

      They’re modest projections because they’re baseline projections. Remember, projections aren’t predictions.

  • http://www.thesportsshowlive.com/ JoeyH

    Hell, if they pitch even as well as they did last year we’ll take it. With a deeper and better rotation than last year they are primed for good things to happen as a team.

    • Rose

      With a deeper and better rotation than last year they are primed for good things to happen as a team.

      The playoffs will be very fun to watch…

      Not that they weren’t last year…

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

        They WEREN’T last year!

        Sincerely,
        Brazilian Yankee

        • bexarama

          ietc

          was that person for real? Like, the Yankees got the last out of the Series and he/she was probably like “but Andy really sucked tonight, the Yankees just got lucky.”

          • Mike Pop

            He was more frustrating than Lanny in my opinion.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

              I had no idea that Brazil was such a sad, lonely, pitiful, self-loathing place. It always looks so fun and exciting in the ads.

              • http://mystiqueandaura.com/ JMK the Overshare’s Mystique and Aura

                It is…until you wake up in an ice bath with a tranny and a missing kidney.

                Actually, in some circles that probably qualifies as fun.

                (What’s up, pat?)

            • bexarama

              I wasn’t posting at the time, but I was reading, and, yes. Definitely.

              For real fun times, check out the various Yankee sites that have people responding in the comments during games. Check what people were saying during the first, oh, three or so innings of Game 3 of the World Series (Andy sucks! Worst offense ever!). Fun, fun, times. Surprisingly enough, after A-Rod’s home run, a lot of those people were pretty much nowhere to be found.

              • bexarama

                Just because I wanted to share it, one example that I found from a site that will remain unnamed, during the early part of Game 3:
                I can’t think of a worse team in the World Series than this year’s Yankee squad.
                Embarrassing, disgraceful, pathetic, anemic, humiliating, rancid…there aren’t enough adjectives to describe just how poorly the Yanks are playing and how overmatched they look.

                Keep in mind, THE SERIES WAS TIED ONE GAME TO ONE at this point. If they really were the worst team ever, well, the Phillies lost a game to them!!! And really, you can’t think of a worse team that’s ever gone to the World Series than the 2009 Yankees? They’re one of like the top three teams overall to go to the WS in the last decade, if not THE best.

                There was also a lot of talk about how Andy’s rep as a “big game pitcher” is overrated and he actually sucks during the second inning or whenever it was that he just really imploded. All of you, apologize to Andy, right now!!!!

  • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph Pawlikowski

    Hey, anyone notice what pitch A.J. is throwing in the pic? Eh? Eh?

    • http://www.audiencesounds.com/ Templeton “Brendog” Peck

      well played changeup sir

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

      Gyroball?

    • http://mystiqueandaura.com/ JMK the Overshare’s Mystique and Aura

      Eeuphus?

  • Snakes on the mother effin plane

    So, Joe, let me get this straight. You’re saying that two players might improve from one season to the next? Huh. Better notify the press.

  • DB

    Here’s a little CC goodness for ya’ll in a little game called Bad Company 2.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....r_embedded