Jun
10

2010 Draft: Closing Links

By

After three days, 50 rounds and (by my count) 16 total hours of selections, the 2010 MLB Draft has come to an end and the focus shifts to signing these player. Yesterday was your typical day of late round selections; the Yankees drafted mostly college players to fill out minor league rosters (those guys are important, they take a lot of the load off the actual prospects) plus a few high school lottery tickets, led by Pennsylvania righty Keenan Kish (34th round).

My summary of the Yanks’ draft strategy still applies simply because not much could have been done on Day Three to change things. In many ways this resembles the Eric Duncan-Tim Battle-Estee Harris draft of 2003, when the Yanks looked for athleticism and shot for the moon with upside. That might sound bad, but seven years ago the Yankees had no interest in using the farm system for developing players. They didn’t try develop players, they tried developed trade bait. The current Brian Cashman led regime certainly has a dedication in player development,which makes this draft much more promising. Scouting director Damon Oppenheimer drafted 20 high school players this year, easily the most in his six years at the Yanks’ helm. It’s very clear they were looking to not just infuse the farm system with some youth and upside, but develop that talent into cheap big league production.

Here’s what I assume is the last collection of links for this draft…

  • You can see every pick the Yanks made here, and the best place to keep track of who signs and who doesn’t is NYY Fans. Of course we’ll keep you updated on the notable signings, and even the not so notable ones as well.
  • First rounder Cito Culver said he’ll “almost certainly” sign with the Yanks, at which point he’d be assigned to the Yanks’ rookie level affiliate in the Gulf Coast League. I can’t imagine Culver wouldn’t sign, hard to pass up first round money.
  • In case you didn’t notice, the Yanks took Paul O’Neill’s nephew Mike in the 42nd round yesterday. He better watch out, they’ll make him pay to replace the watercoolers in the minors.
  • “I like what they did later on Day 2 more than what they did early,” said Keith Law in his recap of rounds 2-30. He notes that Mason Williams (4th) wants top-ten money (basically $2M), and that Evan Rutckyj (16th) is looking for a first round payday, which means at least $1.2M or so.
  • “New York went after several highly regarded prep talents in the later rounds,” said Frankie Piliere in his Day Two analysis, “and while for most clubs this would be moot, considering the perceived price tag of high school talent late in the draft, the Yankees have the ability to throw money at these players and get them signed … Also striking about the Yankee strategy was their willingness to gamble on arms. Teams in their financial position can take a power arm with a flaw and see if they can turn him around, and that’s what they did taking right-handed college arms like Tommy Kahnle and Daniel Burawa. Both have not been stellar in college ball, but have the arms of back-of-the-’pen type relievers.”
  • Third baseman Rob Segedin (3rd) made Jeff Sachmann’s list of sleepers, in which he notes a studly combination of triple-slash stats (.430-.514-.780) and a microscopic 8% strikeout rate. For comparison’s sake, first rounder and consensus top college hitter Zack Cox put up a .424-.508-.603 batting line with a 13% strikeout rate. Remember though, doing what Cox did in the SEC is a lot tougher than doing what Segedin did in Conference USA. Segedin is a draft eligible sophomore, so he’s got a little bit of extra negotiating leverage.
  • If you still haven’t had your fill, Jonathan Mayo looks ahead to next year’s draft and gives you ten names to keep an eye on. It’s obviously very early and a whole lot can change between now and then, but the 2011 draft is absolutely, positively stacked. There’s at least a dozen players that would have gone second overall this year, and Anthony Rendon of Rice probably would have gone ahead of Bryce Harper because it’s a similar bat much further along in it’s development.
Categories : Draft
  • Tampa Yankee

    What is the Yankees draft budget again? I would assume that Jordan wants some nice $ as well so it looks like it’d be one or the other between Williams and Jordan huh?

  • http://mystiqueandaura.com Steve H

    What do you peg the odds of signing Jordan at? Is it minimal, 50/50 or rather likely?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      I’d say it’s let’s than 50/50. I have absolutely no basis for saying this other than pure speculation, but money might not be a real big issue for him since his father made over $50M in the bigs.

      • http://mystiqueandaura.com Steve H

        And some more in the NFL.

        Good thing is he’s not a billionaire like Gerrit Cole’s dad……

        (side note, I googled “Gerrit Cole’s dad a billionaire” and M&A was the first link. I feel like a proud papa.)

        • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

          Didn’t someone visit M&A that was searching “Kim Jones banging Sergio Mitre” ?

          • http://mystiqueandaura.com Steve H

            Heh, sure did.

            • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

              I can’t even imagine what that person was looking for.

            • Thomas

              I have a friend who went through a mutual acquaintance’s internet history and found a search for “pokemon porn” followed by a search for “Ash and a Misty having sex.”

              Now, my friend was like so the acquaintance was search for pokemon porn and probably got stuff with Pikachu getting on with Ash. The acquaintance then must have felt this wrong and could be considered bestiality, but wanted to see cartoon children having sex. In other words, this mutual acquaintance is absolute crazy.

              • Cecala

                TMI.

              • A.D.

                “Mutual acquaintance”

                • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

                  Hahaha IETC.

                • Thomas

                  BRILLIANT!!!!!

                  • A.D.

                    Figured someone had to do it

  • Reggie C.

    And i thought that Mason Williams would take Austin Jackson money (plus inflation), which is still well above slot. Looks like he’ll be the last guy to sign, if he signs at all.

  • Centuar of Attention

    Hey Mike:

    I was wondering if you have any plans to post a piece about which players you think are important to sign in order to revitalize the farm system. Essentially, I was thinking along the lines of posting a rankings list of which players are the most important to sign. Not all 50 of course.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      I did not, but that’s definitely doable. I’ll put it together for early next week. Thanks for the idea.

      • http://mystiqueandaura.com Steve H

        That would (will) be awesome.

      • Angelo

        Can’t wait for that.

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

    … plus a few high school lottery tickets, led by Pennsylvania righty Kennan Kish (34th round).

    So, it’s “Kennan” and not “William”? Even better. His new nickname:

    “K-Rate”

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      It’s neither, it’s “Keenan,” Typo. Must be his nickname or something. Cito Culver’s real name is Chris. Heathcott’s is Zack.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

        Keenan or Kennan, either way, a K.K. name is awesome for a pitcher.

        (As long as his middle name doesn’t also start with K, of course. We don’t want a Krusty’s Komedy Klassics situation on our hands.)

  • Cecala

    Is there anyway of creating a new temporary tab on the top and label it Draft Watch? It would be pretty simple just listing the 50 players drafted and next to the name have: – Pending, – Signed ($$), or – Unsigned. It would be simple and clean to follow and keep track of.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      This is a really good idea. I just might do that…

      • http://www.soxandpinstripes.net JGS

        Awesome–that would also spare us from NYYFans

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          Doubly awesome. She’s fighting the good fight, but I am in constant fear for Bexy’s sanity.

          • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

            Their latest thing seems to be saying that Joba 2008 = Strasburg. (facepalm) Though it’s better than everyone being crazy B-Jobbers.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

              Their latest thing seems to be saying that Joba 2008 = Strasburg.

              (thinks)

              I literally have no idea what that means. I don’t know if it’s a compliment or an insult. I’m stumped. Their vague and persistent stupidity has rendered me mute.

              • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

                Basically that if we hadn’t put Joba in the bullpen, he’d be Strasburg by now. Like I said, probably better than being insane B-Jobbers but ummm.

      • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUvg7Empjfg Captain Jack

        AND IT MIGHT UNJINX MONTERO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

          Ahaha A+

    • Templeton “Brendog” Peck

      +eleventy

    • http://deleted Greg G.

      +1, indeed!

      Pretty please, Mike…

  • Tampa Yankee

    Pretty sure you are referencing andrew above to which I’d have to agree with you

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      Have you looked at the website under his name link?

      It smells like a cult. JMHO.

      • Tampa Yankee

        What that site didn’t change your life? IT DID MINE!

      • Tampa Yankee

        Our paths haven’t crossed lately but I read your a new dad, congrats!

        • Tampa Yankee

          your you’re

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

            Thanks, man. All is well.

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

    Operation: SHUTDOWN.

    W.W.D.B.D.

  • YankeesJunkie

    Hopefully, the Yankees are able to sign a lot of talent of this draft. The good thing with drafting Culver is that he will be cheap relative for first round picks which leaves the Yanks with a ton of money for some of their high upside HS kids.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      Let’s say we did:
      Culver: 1M
      Gumbs: 1M
      Segedin: 750k (slightly over slot, I believe)
      Williams: 2M
      Rutckyj: 1.2M
      Jordan: 1.5M (I hope that’s enough)

      That’s 7.45M already for our top 5 guys, bonuswise, and we haven’t even gotten to Jacob (a Boras advisee) or any of the superlow gambles like Kish, or any of the rank and file slot money guys we’ll have to pay.

      It’s probably an either/or on Williams/Jordan, I’d surmise. If we spend a total of 7M, that would still be pretty nice, all things considered.

      • Angelo

        Tough call there, I’d still say Jordan because of the bloodlines, and his 2009 prospect status. Rutckyj has an excellent frame for pitching, but he’s a big project, I wonder if he might get left out. I wish they can take them all. But someone is definitely going to get left out, unless the Yankees are spending about 2-3 more million than usual on the draft.

      • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUvg7Empjfg Captain Jack

        Well…if they sign both Rutckyj, Jordan, and Williams what type of players will they be missing?

        • Angelo

          It might cause them to miss some other more signable players. Gabe Encinas 6th, Taylor Anderson 7th, Kyle Roller 8th, Morton 9th, Benjamin Gamel 10th, etc. If we assume that the budget is at $8M, then it’s fairly unlikely that they sign all of, Rutckyj, Jordan, and Williams.

          Granted I could be wrong, maybe the budget is a bit higher and they sign all three.

          • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUvg7Empjfg Captain Jack

            If they sign those players in the later rounds what are the chances that they become something special compared to the chances that any of the former three become something special?

            • Angelo

              If Jordan stayed healthy in 2009 (he was ranked as the 39th best high school prospect by BA), he could’ve raised his stock. He’s also a more polished hitter than the other high school prospects the Yankees drafted. And he also has a very high ceiling, while being Brian Jordan’s son.

              Basically Williams, Jordan, and Rutckyj all of have a lot of potential. Probably more than some of the early picks, excluding Williams because he was a 4th rounder.

              • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUvg7Empjfg Captain Jack

                Ehh…I say sign the upside guys. The only chance that these guys have at contributing to the Yanks is if they can play multiple positions and can be used as utility bench guys, are good relievers, or have the upside it takes to break into the Yankee roster.

                That’s just me though.

  • vin

    Just browsing the interwebs this morning at work, I stumbled upon a couple of fantastic posts over at LoHud (it happens once in a while). The esteemed CB broke down the Yanks’ draft philosophy and how it relates to public perception. He also touched on (especially in his 9:44 am post) the Red Sox and Rays’ methods and outcomes. Really strong post.

    http://yankees.lhblogs.com/201.....nt-1400858

    (at 9:19am)

    BTW, I love the idea of a Draft Tracker at the header.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      (golf clap)

      That was excellently written. I don’t read LoHud, but CB seems to be a great intellect.

      We need to steal him away from them and get him over here. It’s what Big Stein would want us to do.

      My favorite crystallization:

      So the situation is set up as a form of selection bias. And it’s nothing particularly malicious. It’s just the way it is when you have limited sources of information. Those sources shape your opinion.

      And ultimately the Yankees as an organizational philosophy do not leak and share very little information with the media. “It’s a process.” From Jeter to Cashman. That’s about what you get.

      So the guys the yankees are high on – those evaluations – never make it into the hands of BA or BP prior to the draft. The yankees aren’t telling anyone that they really like this catcher out of Souther Cal who has been injured most of his senior season. So BA isn’t going to be very high on Austin Romine. Keith Law won’t have him in his top 100. They won’t know to take a second look.

      One of the amazing things about the baseball draft is how nearly every year the red sox are considered to have a “great” draft – most often better than the Rays, for example. Yet the Rays – a team that signs no international kids – has an infinitely better minor league system. The same is true of the Rangers. Think about how many internally developed players the Rockies have – yet BA and BP and Law are rarely if ever exited about the Rockies draft.

      And unlike the Yankees it does seem like the Red Sox actively leak to the press on issues from trades to free agents. And it does seem like a number of the sources who will actually talk to Law, Callis, Goldstein etc. about the draft come from the Sox. There’s nothing wrong with that. You can only use the sources who will speak to you.

      But that is going to systematically bias things like the BA top 200 or Law’s top 100. It’s going to systematically bias those evaluations in a way which makes them closer to the boards of the teams like the Sox that are willing to share information prior to the draft.

      Bingo.

      • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

        No. Stop this sanity. The Red Sox, Rays, and Blue Jays pissed down our throats in this draft. We could have done something to stop it, but no, by picking Culver, we just opened our mouth and let the piss flow in.

        /actual thing I read on NYYFans’d
        /this is why we need a Draft Signing link so I am not tempted to go there any more than I already do, especially in the Minors section’d

        • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

          Seriously though, that’s an excellent writeup. Thanks for bringing it over, vin/tsjc.

        • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUvg7Empjfg Captain Jack

          Boston did have a good few picks…Workman and Ranaudo were two of the ten best college arms in the draft. I saw both of them pitch last year, and if they stay healthy (which is kind of one of those if my grandmother had wheels… type of thing) they have a great shot at contributing. Also, for most educated fans I think everyone was, at the time of the selection on draft night, disappointed with the Culver selection with other known names on the board.

          • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

            Not saying they didn’t have a good draft that may produce very good players but the kneejerk reactions were ridiculous.

            • Angelo

              Yeah, I didn’t see so much backlash coming.

            • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUvg7Empjfg Captain Jack

              Well…when you were salivating over some awesome high upside expensive prospects and then get a guy that nobody’s (meaning the draft experts) ever heard of…I can see why you’d be pissed at first. However, once most (reasonable) people learned about it and realized that he wouldn’t have fallen to the next pick they were okay with it…at least that’s the way I was.

              • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

                Very understandable.

      • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUvg7Empjfg Captain Jack

        I wouldn’t say it’s “infinitely better” Boston does have quite a few good things going on over in the minors, and has produced quite a few good players. They’ve also made great usage of their pieces that won’t really contribute on their team in trades.

      • Angelo

        Why isn’t this guy on RAB? This is a great read, and it’s just a comment!

      • Greg G.

        There was a big debate on the previous thread about the role of “bias” in Law/etc.’s writing. At its source, it was essentially a debate about the meaning of the term “bias”.

        CB’s analysis here clarifies this bias very nicely. Bias is necessarily a conscious or malicious act, it can be just a reflection of how the data/observations were obtained.

        I agree: CB needs to be recruited heavily to this community.

        • http://deleted Greg G.

          Dammit…that should say “Bias isn’t necessarily…”

        • Angelo

          I’m going to try recruiting him starting today. How much do you think I will have to pay him to sign him away from LoHud?

    • Steve in PDX

      +1, great tidbit. When thinking about Culver remember how secretive the Yanks were on Tex.

      • Angelo

        And Tex is a big name guy, so just imagine.