If not the Yankees, where could Jeter end up?
ByWith Derek Jeter a free agent after the season and speculation of his demands running amok, I decided to take a look at where Jeter might fit if for some reason he ended up leaving the Yankees (but it ain’t happening). Without getting too specific into contract details, how many teams out there would pursue Jeter in the offseason?
Arizona Diamondbacks
Stephen Drew, like his brother J.D. is somewhat of an enigma, but is a solid player whom the D-Backs would only replace if he became too expensive in arbitration. No matter what, Jeter would be much more expensive, so the Diamondbacks are out.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves spend when they need to (see Derek Lowe and the offer to Burnett). After trading Yunel Escobar for Alex Gonzalez they will have a question mark at SS for next year. They very easily could pick up Gonzalez’ $2.5 million team option for next year but without a SS of the future on the horizon they could be a fit for Jeter.
Baltimore Orioles
I’ve heard for years that Peter Angelos loves to make a splash, but the water in Baltimore has been calm for years. While Jeter would certainly be a splash, the odds of him staying in the AL East to go play for the Orioles are miniscule. The Orioles might be interested but Jeter won’t be.
Boston Red Sox
People think the Sox would love to stick it to the Yankees and sign Jeter but it’s not Theo’s M.O. He would have to pay a ton of money to get Jeter, and already has a shortstop that’s having a similar season in Marco Scutaro. Scutaro is signed thru 2011 with options for 2012. By then the Sox expect international free agent signee Jose Iglesias to take over and wouldn’t seem to have a place for, or the desire to pay Jeter.
Chicago Cubs
With Starlin Castro around the Cubs are definitely not a fit.
Chicago White Sox
Kenny Williams loves his veterans but the other Sox don’t make much sense either. Alexei Ramirez is young, cheap, and despite his flaws, a good player who has a 3.1 bWAR and 3.5 fWAR this season.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have been a surprise team this year despite a horrendous year from Orlando Cabrera. He has a mutual option for next season so he may be back. If the Reds are looking to upgrade and build on this year’s success, it’s possible they would take a shot at Jeter (and I don’t mean that as “taking a shot at Jeter”).
Cleveland Indians
After a breakout 2009 Asdrubal Cabrera has struggled with injuries and the bat this year, but isn’t going anywhere, and besides, Jeter would have no interest in joining the Indians at the end of his career. He’s not at Jake Taylor status quite yet.
Colorado Rockies
Troy Tulowitzki. Next.
Detroit Tigers
Jeter grew up in Michigan and Tigers owner Mike Ilitch loves to open up the wallet, which will be even easier with Magglio Ordonez coming off the books. The Tigers have had a black hole at SS all season so would have no problems fitting Jeter right in. While Detroit is certainly not New York, the Tigers, to me, would be the biggest threat if Jeter ever is truly on the market. Things line up quite nicely for both Jeter and the Tigers.
Florida Marlins
Even if they didn’t have Hanley they would never pony up the money.
Houston Astros
Shades of Pettitte and Clemens heading off to Houston? With Tommy Manzella and his .523 OPS holding down the fort at SS, the Astros certainly have a need, but there would be no reason for Jeter to consider heading to such a poor franchise.
Kansas City Royals
Maybe if Jeter was a first baseman with pop and no on-base skills the Royals might be interested. He’s not, but even if the Royals wanted Jeter, I’m sure the interest wouldn’t be mutual. Besides Yuniesky Betancourt has a higher bWAR than Jeter this year anyway (I checked 5 times to make sure I wasn’t hallucinating).
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Artie Moreno isn’t afraid to open up the checkbook but the Angels really like Erick Aybar. He’s having a down year with the bat but is regarded as a very strong fielder (despite a slightly negative UZR this year). I could see Jeter having some interest in the Angels, but I don’t think the Angels would have interest in Jeter.
Los Angeles Dodgers
If Mr. Torre wasn’t heading out the door this one might have a stronger chance. While Jeter may respect Don Mattingly from his time in pinstripes, I think Torre would truly have been a draw to L.A. With the McCourts’ messy divorce changing the budget daily, it’s tough to say whether they would be in on Jeter if he became available. Even if the interest was mutual, the Dodgers already have Rafael Furcal locked into 2011 with and option for 2012 that vests with 600 PA’s (no sure thing for Furcal these days). While on the surface it seems like a fit, I don’t see any way it would happen.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are set with Alcides Escobar and there’s no way Jeter would head off to Milwaukee to finish his career.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins have been on a spending spree the past few years but this wouldn’t happen. JJ Hardy is under team control through 2011, and while he’s not that good, the extra cost of Jeter would be too rich for the Twins’ blood. I also doubt Jeter would have much interest in going to Minny and playing second fiddle (in a small market no less).
New York Mets
Because it makes no sense you can’t rule out Omar Minaya (if still employed) being interested in Jeter. Jose Reyes hasn’t been great this year but has likely played well enough to have his 2011 $11 million team option picked up. It makes a lot more sense to have Reyes at 1 year/$11 million than whatever Jeter would cost. Again, the odds are slim, but the Mets just might be dumb enough to try and sign Jeter to make a splash, more than to help them on the field.
Oakland Athletics
Jeter isn’t a fit here. Cliff Pennington is cheap, not an automatic out with the bat and strong defensively. He’s been worth 2.9 bWAR and 2.7 fWAR this year for $405k. No reason to change it up here.
Philadelphia Phillies
No reason to mess with “the greatest infield of all time” in Philly. Well, of course it’s no the greatest of all time, but with Jimmy Rollins locked up for 2011 Jeter doesn’t fit.
Pittsburgh Pirates
I think Jeter would rather stay in New York for the minimum than sign with the Pirates.
San Diego Padres
Jed Hoyer learned under Theo, and like Theo I don’t think he would have any interest in Jeter at the market rate. While the Padres don’t have anything set in stone at the position for 2011 it doesn’t seem to be a fit for either side. San Diego is nice, but I don’t see Jeter wanting to chase 3000+ hits in Petco.
San Francisco Giants
Juan Uribe has been ok this year in San Fran but is a free agent after the season. He’s certainly a possibility to return, but the Giants have been willing to open up the checkbook. Brian Sabean usually brings in position players when they are past their primes, so Jeter could be a fit by the Bay.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners this offseason prided themselves on defense, and while it hasn’t quite worked as hoped, I doubt they would want to sign a SS to a multi-year deal heading into his age 37 season. Considering how poor their offense has been though, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities to sacrifice some defense at SS. They do have Jack Wilson signed at $5 million for 2011, and would have to eat most of that if they wanted to move him. Adding close to $5 million to Jeter’s pricetag doesn’t seem very likely though.
St. Louis Cardinals
On the field the Cardinals could be a fit as Brendan Ryan has been awful in 2010. Opening the wallet for Jeter is a problem however. After blowing away the market overpaying for Matt Holliday and with upcoming contract negotiations for Albert Pujols, the Cardinals will be watching every penny. Throwing $10-$15 million/year at a 37 year old shortstop isn’t likely to happen. The Cardinals will likely just hope Ryan can return to his 2009 form, which produced 2.7fWAR and 3.4 bWAR.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays certainly aren’t a fit financially and despite Jason Bartlett’s fall from his great 2009 they are fine with him going forward. Bartlett could go if he becomes too expensive in arbitration, but the Rays wouldn’t replace him with someone more expensive anyway, so Jeter’s a no go here.
Texas Rangers
I’d say the Rangers are plenty happy with Elvis Andrus, so no room for Jeter.
Toronto Blue Jays
Not a fit here as the Jays will likely let Yunel Escobar hold down the fort until Cuban signee Adeiny Hechavarria is ready.
Washington Natinals Nationals
The Nationals are set at SS with young and cheap Ian Desmond who has produced 1.5 bWAR and 1.5 fWAR for $400k this year. He’s not going anywhere.
So there we have it. Of the other 29 teams in baseball I only see one team that makes a ton of sense for Jeter (the Tigers) and a few others that might be a fit (Braves, Reds, Mets, Giants, Mariners). While the last thing I want to happen is for the negotiations to get publicly contentious, I definitely think the Yankees have the upper hand when it comes to leverage. No matter what, I can see almost no scenario in which Jeter isn’t back in the pinstripes next year.
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He isn’t going anywhere. He’ll stay. The only question is for how much. I hope the Yankees do the right thing and not overpay him. Cashman has to stand his ground. I honestly think the Yankees have the leverage here.
I agree. Leaving a competitive offer on the table to sign with any other team hurts Jeter legacy. Don’t care how the media tries to spin it and blame Cashman, and frankly I don’t care. Locking up the left side of your IF for 50m until they’re 40 is stupid.
It’s not up to Cashman to stand his ground as the Yankee ownership will be negotiating with Jeter with some input from Cashman.
Also, Jeter knows he can’t go to the Red Sox so just eliminate them.
I can’t see Jeter leaving.
However, I do remember back when Bernie almost left as a free agent, Jeter was very unhappy with the situation. He made comments along the lines of “If they treat me that badly, I’ll just take less to go play near home in Detroit.” Detroit is actually a very plausible option this time around, so its a possibility, even if unlikely.
As for the Mets, they could consider trading Reyes to help rebuild and overpay Jeter to stick it to the Yankees. It probably would help them out with attendance. Jeter wouldn’t have as much marketability as a Met, but he’d still be able to draw off his huge NY following and get a lot more sponsorship deals than he would in Detroit. It’s probably not a good idea for the Mets, but neither are most things they do.
People aren’t going to Citi to watch Jeter if that team is .500
This is a nightmarish problem for the Yankees. Regardless of what Jeter thinks he has slipped significantly at the bat and in the field. This is not just an off year. It is a downward trend. Even if they resign him and don’t overpay, he’s still a problem with his increasing liabilities. He’s not the type of player that let himself get out of shape or had an injury such that you could expect improvement next year or a bounce back. He is aging and wearing down. It’s unfortunate that he won’t accept these realities and be willing to adjust to a reduced role at reduced money but we all know that won’t happen. I don’t know what the answer to this one is? I just don’t see a good course of action that works for all parties. He has been a great Yankee and has always conducted himself with class.
This is not just an off year. It is a downward trend.
People said the same thing in 2008 when he put up an OPS+ of 102, and then he bounced back to have a terrific 2009. I’m not saying unequivocally that this isn’t the start of his decline. I’m saying that it is premature to call it that, even if it eventually turns out to be true.
It’s unfortunate that he won’t accept these realities and be willing to adjust to a reduced role at reduced money but we all know that won’t happen.
I have never heard him say in an interview what he is looking for in his next contract, have you?
He was raised in a very loving family environment, and is now engaged. Maybe he thinks that the life of a ballplayer is incompatible with being the kind of father he envisions himself being, and only wants to play for another year or two.
Again, I’m not saying this is so, but does anyone know Jeter so well to say for sure that it isn’t?
Jeter said he’d like to own a Major League Franchise someday and “call the shots” – I’d guess he’s going to be looking for more than a few years and for big $.
That doesn’t mean he won’t be “reasonable” in negotiations with the Yanks, but IMHO Jeter is the type of guy who is always going to think he’s an AB away from going on a tear.
I’d guess he’s going to be looking for more than a few years and for big $.
Why, you don’t think he has enough money to do that now?
GMS purchased the Yanks with less than $1 million of his own money.
People who buy businesses don’t come up with the entire purchase price. I’m sure there are at least several MLB franchises Jeter could afford right now.
“GMS purchased the Yanks with less than $1 million of his own money.”
But the total package was only $9m. Jeter putting in 50m to buy a team isn’t going to get him any control over it.
If Jeter finds partners that let him be the managing general partner his equity investment may not matter as much – i.e. control may not be equity dependent.
I think that would be tough to find, but its possible – to find people who will put up the bulk of the downpayment and name Jeter the MP.
I really don’t know if he has enough $ or what he considers enough.
The price obviously would be franchise dependent – but looking at the Rangers sale it went for close to 600 mil with the buyers putting down 225.
I’m sure money men would love to be in business with Jeter – the ? though is how much control would Jeter really want and if its alot would investors feel comfortable with that (and would Jeter want to answer to anyone)?
Regardless, for a guy with big ambitions like Jeter, I think he is going to want to play as long as he can and I’m betting he thinks he’s got more than a few years left in the tank near the top of his game.
I think he’ll be reasonable to finish out his career as a Yank, but he’s not going to give a huge hometown discount.
I’ll stand by my guess at 3/45 with an option and that no one else comes near that for a 36 1/2 yr old SS.
JMO
Sorry, but this posting is a waste of time. I couldn’t bring myself to read it.
Yeah, it was a real dick move for Steve H to come to your house and force you to read this. I’m glad you took the time to communicate what a horrible thing he did, since your schedule is clearly so packed.
Sorry, this comment is a waste of time. I couldn’t bring myself to read it.
then honestly why did you comment on it?
yanks will sign him. where will jeter be in the lineup next year?
Let’s not forget another possible destination…your gf’s house.
If this is who Jeter is now – .268/.333/.373 – and I’m not sure it is – I’d be very happy to see him finish his career in Detroit.
Hope the Yanks make him a solid offer – lets say 3/45 with an option – I don’t think any other team goes near that – if they do, to quote the great Michael Kay – “See Ya”.
If this is who Jeter is now – .268/.333/.373 – and I’m not sure it is – I’d be very happy to see him finish his career in Detroit.
I agree, I’m not convinced that that is who Jeter is, but let’s say it is.
Realistically, who would you get to replace him?
Yanks already have Nunez and Pena – I’d also probably try to find a +D guy with big league experience and not worry about offense at SS in the near term.
That ain’t happening, Cashman would trade for someone.
Cash would definitely have another option or two at SS, but he may want to either reallocate the Jeter $ to Cliff Lee or get some pr relief and go with D at SS – “proven” +D with 2010 Jeteresque offense costs 4-6 mil unless you get Jeter to provide it.
Also, with the Yanks offense, I wouldn’t mind seeing Nunez get a shot in 2011 at SS – not that I think Nunez is going to be a star, I just think that he could provide close to what Jeter is now for 500K.
FWIW, KLaw doesn’t think Nunez is even close to a starter. Callis thinks he could be a starter on another team though.
Why not use that “Jeter” money on Jayson Werth? With him batting 2nd in the line-up I could tolerate a Pena/Nunez batting 9th.
I can’t see him leaving NY but if he expects to be paid more than $15 mil per season from this point forward, he should test the market and find out what other offers are out there…
+1
This Jeter decision will set the tone for and define Hal Steinbrenner’s tenure as the Yankee’s principal owner and decision maker. It’s all speculation at this point, there are many possible scenarios that could come to fruition and no one should claim to know what will happen, or that anything is a foregone conclusion.
I think a big part of what happens with Jeter will be determined with the playoffs. If Jeter plays horribly, they might just say 1 year for $10m (Particularly easy to do if they win it all). If he plays well, then things might be different (The worst case scenario is he has a great series, but the team loses). Gut feeling is it will be one year for $15m and a reasonable option.
I have no idea where this will all end up. I think that Jeter’s rep will be damaged if he puts himself before the good of the team. I think that people who are Yankees fans will not walk away from the team because of Jeter. We root for the uniform. It’s true that some are truer Yankees than others but if you try to screw the organization by looking out for number 1, I think that doesn’t make you a true Yankee and you don’t deserve to be captain.
I think the Yankees have the upper hand but if they choose to play it that way or not is up to them. Fans are not going to leave the team in droves if they don’t resign Jeter.
It’ll be very interesting to see just how much a team guy Jeter is if the Yankees come in offering him 3 years and $60 million and he ends up thinking that’s an insult. There aren’t 37 year olds getting huge term deals anymore.
I’d definitely sacrifice money for less years. Something in the 2/40 range.
My prediction of what he signs (not what I think he’s worth): 5/65
Hank’s not running the show anymore. I’d be shocked if Hal gave Jeter a 5 year deal.
i would be stunned if they gave 5 years.
end of ’09 i might’ve agreed with you. The silver lining from Jeter’s shitty season this year is that there’s no way in a Ke$ha concert that he gets 5 years.
My guess is that he’ll want atleast a 4 yr contract. 3yrs with an option for 4 sounds fair to everyone involved
If they give him five, they will regret it, and badly. Even three is pushing.
My guess: 3/45 with a 10m team option for a 4th year or 2/40 with a 10m player option for a 3rd year
C.D. Bales with some words of wisdom for Brian Cashman and Hal regarding the Jeter contract decision…
I really admire your shoes….I love your shoes…And I was just thinking: as much as I really admire your shoes, and as much as I’d love to have a pair just like them, I really wouldn’t want to be IN your shoes at this particular time and place.
This makes me sick. Jeter is a Yankee for life or I will kill myself
Jeter’s skills have eroded obviously according to scouts. You lose an inch on the fastball and you lose a mile on average and other offensive catgories. His results speak volumes. Mr Jeter should think about how he might look and feel batting 230 next year. Thanks for the memories Jete.