Oct
12

Mailbag: Traded Prospects

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Here’s a special one-question edition of the RAB Mailbag, but don’t worry, we’ll definitely get to some more throughout the course of the week.

Hey! Since many, many moves were made both prior to the season and during the season concerning movement of prospects, it doesn’t seem to have affected the farm system too much. Contrary to this, the farm system as a whole seems to have taken a giant leap forward, especially with the development of our young pitching corps. But I still wonder, how much better (in terms of subjective quality or actual ‘ranking’) would our farm system be if we still had all the players pre Javy-trade.

The Yankees have made several trades involving prospects over the last twelve months, most notably for Curtis Granderson, Javy Vazquez, Boone Logan, Lance Berkman, and Austin Kearns. As far as we know right now, the Kerry Wood trade only involves money. Here are the prospects that were dealt away in those moves, in no particular order: Austin Jackson, Arodys Vizcaino, Mike Dunn, Mark Melancon, Jimmy Paredes, and Zach McAllister. Ian Kennedy surpassed the rookie limit of 50 big league innings back in 2008, so technically he wasn’t a prospect at the time of the trade.

The best overall prospect with the highest long-term value traded away is Vizcaino, who posted a 2.22 FIP (2.74 ERA) in 85.1 innings split between Low-A and High-A this season before being shut down with a small ligament tear in his elbow that did not require Tommy John surgery. During one stretch from early-May to mid-June, he went 44 innings between issuing a walk. Baseball America ranked him the sixth best prospect in the South Atlantic League two weeks ago, saying he “shows a 92-94 mph fastball that touches 96, a hammer curveball and excellent control … [h]is changeup continues to improve and could give him a third plus pitch.” It’s a frontline starter package, for sure. If he was still with the Yanks, he’d almost certainly be their top pitching prospect if healthy, but I’d probably dock him a bit for the injury and the uncertainty it brings. For sure, The Killer B’s (Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, and Andrew Brackman) would have another running mate, so perhaps we’d be calling them The Killer B’s Plus V.

The best immediate impact guy they traded was Jackson by far. He had a 3.6 fWAR season for the Tigers thanks to a slightly above average .333 wOBA combined with a strong +4.2 UZR in center. I have a hard time believing that Jackson would have made the Yanks out of Spring Training had the trade never gone down, simply because a starting outfield of Jackson, Brett Gardner, and Nick Swisher would have been very questionable back in April. He likely would have returned to Triple-A for at least a few weeks, and the Yanks would have brought in another outfielder, probably Johnny Damon now that I think about it. If he was still a Yankee prospect, he’d be their second best position player prospect behind Jesus Montero, but he’d only be in the middle of their top ten prospects behind Montero and The Killer B’s.

The other four guys were all second tier prospects with similar value. Melancon is  the best of the bunch as an MLB-ready strikeout reliever, and sure enough he pitched to a 3.19 FIP (3.12 ERA) with 9.87 K/9 and 4.15 BB/9 in 17.1 innings for Houston after the trade, good for 0.3 fWAR. Dunn spent most of the season in Triple-A but came up late in the year to post a 3.60 FIP (1.89 ERA) in 19 innings for the Braves, though his impressive 12.79 K/9 came with a hideous 8.05 BB/9. Paredes was one of the system’s better sleepers, a slick fielding middle infielder with some pop (.130 ISO this year) and lots of speed (50 steals, 82.0% success rate).

McAllister took a big step back before the trade, getting surpassed by several of the higher upside arms in the system throughout the summer. Before the trade he posted a 4.73 FIP (5.03) in 132.1 Triple-A innings after never having an FIP higher than 3.26 at any level in any season of his career. He also become exceptionally homer prone, giving up 19 in 24 starts after surrendering just 17 in the first 74 outings of his career. The numbers after the trade are from too small a sample to draw any conclusions from (4.08 FIP, 6.88 ERA, 17 IP).

There’s no question that the Yanks’ system would be considerably stronger had all of those trades never gone down, and that’s mostly thanks to Jackson and Vizcaino. Melancon and Dunn are solid depth pieces, Paredes and interesting low-level guy, but frankly McAllister had no place on a team like the Yankees and trade bait was almost certainly his ultimate future one way or the other. The Yanks certainly have a top ten system right now, but if you add a high upside arm like Arodys and a solid everyday centerfielder in Jackson (thanks to the benefit of hindsight, of course), it jumps into the top five, maybe even top three. Their depth would be improved greatly, and the cache of arms would be even deeper. For fun, here’s a rough top list of the ten best Yankee prospects had those trades never gone down…

  1. Jesus Montero
  2. Arodys Vizcaino
  3. Manny Banuelos
  4. Andrew Brackman
  5. Dellin Betances
  6. Austin Jackson
  7. Gary Sanchez
  8. Austin Romine
  9. Slade Heathcott
  10. Hector Noesi

Quibble about the order if you want, but the names are generally correct. No matter how you slice it, that’s a monster top ten.

Remember, prospects serve two purposes: the plug into the big league roster and trades. They were able to trade Vizcaino because of all the other high-upside arms they had in-house, and the reason they were able to acquire a power hitting centerfield with top notch defense like Granderson is because they had someone like Jackson to deal away. The other guys are just the cost of doing business, potentially useful pieces for almost certainly useful pieces. The farm system would be stronger with them, no doubt, but the big league team is stronger because they traded away, and that’s what matters.

Photo Credits: Jackson with the Honolulu Sharks of Hawaii Winter Baseball in 2007 via Kyle Galdeira, Jackson with the Tigers in 2010 via Mark Duncan, AP.

Categories : Mailbag, Minors

142 Comments»

  1. PaulF says:

    What about IPK?

    • All Star Carl says:

      Wasn’t a prospect anymore.

    • JGS says:

      The Yankees have made several trades involving prospects over the last twelve months, most notably for Curtis Granderson, Javy Vazquez, Boone Logan, Lance Berkman, and Austin Kearns. As far as we know right now, the Kerry Wood trade only involves money. Here are the prospects that were dealt away in those moves, in no particular order: Austin Jackson, Arodys Vizcaino, Mike Dunn, Mark Melancon, Jimmy Paredes, and Zach McAllister. Ian Kennedy surpassed the rookie limit of 50 big league innings back in 2008, so technically he wasn’t a prospect at the time of the trade.

  2. nathan says:

    The one that got away : Arodys.

    I had no issues giving up on Ajax but did we also need to ship IPK in that trade for Curtis? Seems like we gave up too much

    I was convinced we had traded for a younger front line starter when THE TRADE sent websites crashing. What a dud it was.

    Never trade with the Braves
    Never sign a Brave out of FA

    Bummed abt Arodys.

    • You only say that because Javy had an ugly season. When you can trade a top prospect, 4th outfielder and a left reliever who is having trouble straightening himself out for a pitcher of 2009 Javy caliber, you do it every time. The idea was that the Yankees would lose a top prospect, but gain two back in the draft… that didn’t work out. Oh well, good prospects get away from organizations all the time.

      Regarding IPK, the deal was:

      Yankees get: Granderson
      Yankees give: Kennedy, A. Jackson, Coke

      DBacks get: E. Jackson, Kennedy
      DBacks give: Scherzer, Schlereth

      Tigers get: A. Jackson, Scherzer, Schlereth, Coke
      Tigers give: Granderson, E. Jackson

      It was basically two separate trade by the Tigers. The Yankees traded Kennedy, AJax and Coke for Granderson. That’s is very fair, a somewhat redundant SP, a top prospect outfielder with strikeout issues and no power, and an easily replaceable reliever.

      That was the first deal for the Tigers. The second deal was the Tigers trading EJax and Kennedy to the DBacks for a Brandon Morrow-esque starter with tons of untapped potential, and a flamethrowing reliever. That trade was basically a salary dump in my opinion. The Tigers wanted Kennedy as part of the Yankee deal, so they could get Scherzer and Schlereth.

      • Avi says:

        “When you can trade a top prospect, 4th outfielder and a left reliever who is having trouble straightening himself out for a pitcher of 2009 Javy caliber, you do it every time.”

        Not if his name is Javier Vazquez and you existed in ’04.
        I couldn’t believe the Yankees traded for him again! I was absolutely livid.
        When I got to work the day the trade happened I took a piece of paper, wrote down what I KNEW his stats would be and gave it to a “roto geek” friend that I work with.
        It reads Javier Vazquez 10-10 170k’s and a 4.90 ERA.
        I still don’t understand how ANYONE liked that trade. Puzzling..

        • Esteban says:

          He was great last year with the Braves and above average in the White Sox. I think most people figured he’d be at least a solid #3 starter.

          • Avi says:

            His ERA was 4.84 in ’06 and 4.67 in ’08 with the white sox and 4.42 in ’05 with Arizona. Even if he had NEVER pitched for the Yankees why would you look only at ’09 and ’07 and not every other year??

          • Avi says:

            It’s not like Vazquez was a mild disappointment in ’04. He was an UTTER CATASTROPHE.
            The Yanks traded their best prospect and one of the best in the game (Nick Johnson)and Juan Rivera for him, signed him to a four year, $45M deal and by the playoffs he was OUT OF THE ROTATION.

            Trading for Vazquez would be like signing Carl Pavano this offseason and expecting him to have the kind of season he had in Minnesota this past year.
            Any Yankee fans out there wanna sign Pavano??

            • JGS says:

              Fun fact: through the Break, Javy had a 3.56 ERA in 118.2 innings and a K/BB just south of 3. It was the only All-Star appearance of his career.

              UTTER CATASTROPHE seems a bit harsh.

              • Avi says:

                Did the second half and postseason not happen?

                • dan says:

                  u r right ,i hated it and it turned out worst ……javy lovers..go to he…….ll!

                • JGS says:

                  Of course they happened, but Javy made a large contribution to that 7 game lead they had at the Break that gave them the cushion to hold off a clearly superior Red Sox team and win the division. Acting like he was a complete and utter zero the entire season is just wrong. Javy was far from solely responsible for the playoffs. It was already 2-0 Boston and the bases were loaded with one out when Javy came in in Game 7.

                  • Chris says:

                    He was also pitching through a bum shoulder in the second half because there were no other options to start.

                    And if you want to blame someone for the post season, Kevin Brown is much more to blame than Vazquez. He started games 3 and 7 and didn’t throw a single pitch in the third inning in either game.

                    • Avi says:

                      I heard about this bum shoulder in ’04 when the yanks traded for him this past off season.
                      I have to say, I watched every game in ’04, finished first in two roto leagues and followed EVERY Yankees on a daily basis. I NEVER ONCE heard of this bum shoulder!
                      Even if he did have the bad shoulder what about all the other ineffective seasons he had between ’05 and ’08.
                      It truly bothers me when Yankee fans defend the Vazquez trade. I feel like they’ll contribute to more bad acquisitions going forward.
                      If you thought Vazquez was a good move don’t you have to objectively realize that your baseball prognostication skills aren’t that good and adjust accordingly?

                    • SullyLV says:

                      Two more reasons why the Yankees lost 1.Rivera 2 blown saves and 2.Yankees offense went to sleep after game 3!

                  • Avi says:

                    Dude, again the Yankees gave premium talent to trade for him and then gave him one of the biggest contracts in history for him to be an ACE!
                    He was their OPENING DAY STARTER.
                    You think an ace might have increased our chances of winning one out of four of the final games of that LCS?

                    “Javy was far from solely responsible for the playoffs. It was already 2-0 Boston and the bases were loaded with one out when Javy came in in Game 7.”

                    Oh yeah, because 2-0 or 3-0 Yankee red sox games are always over.

                    • Avi says:

                      Biggest contracts for a starter I meant.

                    • chris c. says:

                      “Oh yeah, because 2-0 or 3-0 Yankee red sox games are always over.”

                      In that series, it was. The Yankees were dead by that point. D-E-A-D dead. And they further proved it by not mounting a single ray of hope over the next 7 innings.

                    • chris c. says:

                      “It truly bothers me when Yankee fans defend the Vazquez trade.”

                      Nothing surprises me anymore. But what’s done is done.

                • It'sATarp says:

                  he blew out his arm that season thats what happened

          • Captain Jack says:

            I mean, I like to consider myself a man of reason (but panic whenever I’m watching sports) but a pitcher with HR issues his whole career, a lot of innings on his arm, moving to the AL East, and the Stadium? I was skeptical, i knew he wouldn’t touch any of his projections, but I didn’t think it’d be that bad. I was expecting around 200 innings of a 4.2ish ERA, instead he was replacement level.

            Now his stuff declined which wasn’t entirely foreseeable, though a reasonable person should think about all those innings that he logged and a pitcher with his FB issues any decline in stuff could be huge. I wasn’t shocked by his campaign this year, guys with his HR issues can get lit up like that. At the time of the trade I was skeptical of it, liking the stat lines Arodys put up and the glowing reports he received. That being said, I was okay with it. Now looking back, it was an awful move…but at least Boone Logan filed the void while Marte was gone.

            • Dream of Electric Sheep/ still haven't register /too lazy says:

              To add to that, the man wilted down the stretch in every pennant race he was in. You don’t want that kind of pitcher if your are a perennial contending team like the Yanks. On top of the prospects rendered , he also cost a hefty 11.5 mil. Just a few things I had reservation about.

              Javy will thrive on a mediocre team with little expectations.

      • nathan says:

        Doesnt matter if it was two separate trades or a 3 team trade.

        The price for Curtis on top of taking his full salary was very high.

        And no, regarding Javy, I have been saying it since the day it went down. And no it wasnt because of 04.

        • B-Rando says:

          Granderson has a very team friendly contract.

          • nathan says:

            NO he doesnt, just look up how much it escalates over the next 2 years. It just jumps. If it was team friendly they wudnt hv traded him away trust me.

            • It'sATarp says:

              the tigers don’t have the same pay roll as the yankees. 8 mil next year and then 10 mil in the finally year including a 13 mil option for 2013 which basically means we hold the guy for his primes and can decide on his future.

        • chris c. says:

          “The price for Curtis on top of taking his full salary was very high.”

          Yes it was……and this is justified by the fact that every time he does something positive, people are quick to defend the trade.

      • chris c. says:

        “You only say that because Javy had an ugly season. When you can trade a top prospect, 4th outfielder and a left reliever who is having trouble straightening himself out for a pitcher of 2009 Javy caliber, you do it every time.”

        No necesarily…….not when that guy had two prior stints in the AL, including your own team, and he just did not cut it.

        The Granderson deal I’m up in the air about. Granderson’s a good player, but he doesn’t blow me away.

  3. Ghost of Scott Brosius says:

    What would Kennedy’s place on the Yankees be right now? Fifth starter, with the killer B’s looming to take his spot? He might be a useful innings eater, but the Yankees want pitchers with 1-2 starter stuff upside. Pitchers like Kennedy are just meant to be used as trade chips. Look at it this way- you could keep Kennedy as a fifth starter, are you could use him as a trade chip to get a very valuable piece elsewhere, and just sign an average free agent to eat those innings. A guy like Kennedy, with out a high ceiling, is simply more valuable to the Yanks as a trade chip. You have to be able as an organization to distinguish between the elite-potential keepers (HUghes, Montero) and the very effective but limited pieces (Kennedy, countless others). Look at the Yankees lineup- we’re in the business of finding stars, not league average players.

    • kosmo says:

      Why does Arizona covet IPK so much? Because he´s much better than a 5th starter .

      • Kiersten says:

        He’s AT MOST a no. 4 in the NL West. In the AL East, he’s trash.

        • Avi says:

          I wouldn’t mind having him to start an LCS game over AJ.

          • MIkeD says:

            IPK is not worth the effort to even bother writing out his full name. He’d have an ERA pushing 5.00 in the AL East. He was always considered the fringiest of the Big Three.

            • Ted Nelson says:

              “He’d have an ERA pushing 5.00 in the AL East.”

              Like Burnett?

            • chris c. says:

              IPK is not worth the effort to even bother writing out his full name. He’d have an ERA pushing 5.00 in the AL East. He was always considered the fringiest of the Big Three.

              You’re down on the guy because he couldn’t bounce back quickly from an injury? He had a pretty nice season for the D-Backs this year, and he’s only around 25 years old. You have no way of knowing what his ERA would be in the AL East. Purely guesswork on your part.
              He was still a consensus first round pick, so he must have something that people like. Not you, but other people.

          • V says:

            I’d rather give the LCS start to Nova than IPK.

            • Ted Nelson says:

              Nova can’t last 5 innings in a ML start, IPK had a WHIP of 1.2 this season and pitched almost 200 innings. I don’t necessarily regret that they traded him, but it certainly seems like he would have helped the Yankees deal with the Javy/AJ/Pettitte situation this season and he is a better pitcher at this point than Nova.

              • Ted Nelson says:

                Even if you inflate his numbers for a move to the AL East… he’d still be a quality starter this season. At the time I doubted he would be, but in hindsight he could have helped out the Yankees this season.

            • chris c. says:

              “I’d rather give the LCS start to Nova than IPK.”

              Now you’re just being stooge.

        • kosmo says:

          That´s why Arizona said IPK is one of 2 players who will more than likely not be traded.
          Are these people terrible judges of talent ?They must be idiots?
          Have you looked at his 2010 season ?
          Not bad for playing for a shitty team with no bullpen.
          AL East is not nearly as good as folks make it out to be.

          • Ted Nelson says:

            “AL East is not nearly as good as folks make it out to be.”

            No other division had 3 teams that won 85 games, The AL Beast had 4.

          • It'sATarp says:

            dumbest thing i heard all day…yes because facing the offensively challenged Padres, Giants and dodgers is the same as facing the rays,sox, jays and even orioles

            • chris c. says:

              “dumbest thing i heard all day…yes because facing the offensively challenged Padres, Giants and dodgers is the same as facing the rays,sox, jays and even orioles”

              No, it’s not the same, but it’s also stupid to assume a guy would be unsuccessful against those teams, based on………nothing.

              • It'sATarp says:

                How bout the fact in his time in the al east ipk has posted a fip near the high 4′s and a even worse xfip in the 5′s/6′s that’s pretty bad. Even in the much weaker nl west he has an fip of 4.33 and xfip of 4.28. That’s a number 3/4 starter there. In comparison Hughes has posted similiar numbers in the al east w/o the benefit of facing the pitcher every 9 ab’s. Also along with the weaker lineups, nl west parks are notorious pitchers parks. Thus I would net money against ipk repeating his sucess this year in the al east.

                • chris c. says:

                  “How bout the fact in his time in the al east ipk has posted a fip near the high 4?s and a even worse xfip in the 5?s/6?s that’s pretty bad.”

                  Right……he was pitching injured…..then returned and his mechanics were off. How was he doing before the injury? I mean geez, the dude was what, 23 years old? Give me a break.

                  “In comparison Hughes has posted similiar numbers in the al east w/o the benefit of facing the pitcher every 9 ab’s.”

                  Okay. What is the point of that? Someone said he is better than Hughes? I didn’t.

                  “Thus I would net money against ipk repeating his sucess this year in the al east.”

                  Let’s make something clear……Kennedy isn’t gone because the Yankees didn’t want him. He is gone because he was a key piece in a trade that brought them a starting centerfielder. The Yankees drafted him in the first round, did now want him going in the Santana trade, sent him to winter ball after his injury, and raved about the progress he made with his ex-pitching coach at USC, and the winter league. You you’re sitting here arguing about how the guys couldn’t cut it in NY, and the Yankees actions have shown that they totally disagree with you. But ou go riht ahead and continue to prognosticate.

                  • It'sATarp says:

                    i’m saying despite his progress he’s not an ace level pitcher nor would he be a 3.80 era guy in the al east. he be a solid back of the rotation guy,but nothing irreplaceable. I will say i would like to have IPK over AJ but AJ isn’t exactly a good measure for pitching right now.

      • bonestock94 says:

        They also covet Joe Saunders. The Yankees have no shortage of 6th starters, not worth sweating.

        • Ted Nelson says:

          Given how many games were started by scrubs this season, I certainly think it’s fair to say IPK could have helped the Yankees stabilize their rotation.

          • bonestock94 says:

            I’m not convinced there’s an appreciable difference between what Kennedy would do in the AL East and what we squeezed out of Nova and Moseley.

            Besides, who cares? Just by what Granderson has done in the ALDS that trade has been a success.

            • Ted Nelson says:

              I’m not saying that the trade was or wasn’t good, I’m saying that I would have rather had Kennedy making starts this season than Nova or Moseley. They made the post-season anyway, but IPK might make a better Game 4 starter than AJ or a better bullpen arm than some of the guys out there. While maybe he’s a phenomenon of the NL West, Dan Haren had a lot more success this season in the AL West than NL West. There’s no guarantee he’d have been effective in the AL East or for the Yankees, but there’s certainly no guarantee he wouldn’t have been.

              Again, not commenting on the trade at all… commenting on your comment about the Yankees having “plenty of 6th starters.” Problem is that they have 6th starters in the 4 and 5 holes as well…

            • chris c. says:

              “I’m not convinced there’s an appreciable difference between what Kennedy would do in the AL East and what we squeezed out of Nova and Moseley.”

              Well, certainly not gonna try and convince you, but if you think there’s a GM out there who wouldn’t trade Dustin Moseley for Ian Kennedy, you’re kidding yourself.

              “Besides, who cares? Just by what Granderson has done in the ALDS that trade has been a success.”

              Jesus! All of a sudden Granderson is the modern day Yankee version of Reggie Jackson.
              Scott Brosius: 1998 WS MVP. Thank God they had him instead of AROD.

    • Avi says:

      “You have to be able as an organization to distinguish between the elite-potential keepers (HUghes, Montero) and the very effective but limited pieces (Kennedy, countless others).”

      Well said.
      The Yankees are going to have to “distinguish” this off season now more than ever. Nova, Noesi, Romine, Warren, Nunez, Laird are all guys that probably fit in the “countless others” category. Trade em NOW before they’re stock goes down by getting hurt or regressing in their performance. They’re all right about Major league ready and their stock is about as high as it’ll ever be.
      Montero and Sanchez are two guys that definitely have that Elite Potential keeper status (Sanchez is only 17).
      Where it’s going to get difficult is with the killer B’s. None of them are the prospect that Joba and Hughes were (Banuelos can become an elite prospect) so I would be inclined to move Brackman and Betances as well.
      Brackman is expensive though.

      I think the Yankees need to get VERY creative this off season to unload about ten of these guys and bring back value.
      It’s time to CASH OUT!

      • Camilo Gerardo says:

        If Betances has a similar year in AA-AAA, I think he is officially “elite”

      • JobaWockeeZ says:

        Have a fire sale on players that can give you production for cheap? Some yes, all no.

      • Ted Nelson says:

        Who are they going to trade 10 prospects for? They just don’t have many holes and only 25 roster spots… And what 10 prospects? You really only want them to keep 3 prospects?

        • Am I the only Kevin? says:

          Conceivably, the Yanks would be looking to package prospects for a starting pitcher, a reliable bullpen arm on a decent multi-year deal, or maybe another lefty bullpen guy. I don’t see any position players being added by trade, however. More Thames-type signings and that is about it.

          • Ted Nelson says:

            They could make some trades, but 10 of their “prospects?” Prospects being only the top MiLB guys with possible MLB futures.

            I’m hoping Cliff Lee fills one rotation spot. That leaves one or zero spots depending on Pettitte. I’d like to see Joba get a crack at that fifth spot if it’s open, though if the right trade came along I would not be upset.
            A reliever or two would be nice. Nova could be a nice price controlled option. Aceves and Marte might be healthy. Could also pick up that Jose Contreras type in free agency.

            If they’re maintaining a $200 mill budget it’s going to limit their options. Especially if Pettitte is back. I don’t really want to see them dealing a future ML starter who is almost ML ready plus a future starting ML catcher already in AA just for a decent middle reliever.

            With all the salary already on the books, some of these guys can be a big part of the Yankees’ future. Dealing all the ones who aren’t 5 star prospects indiscriminately is likely to burn the Yankees in a few instances and bloat the payroll. A guy who is only a 6th starter on the Yankees can still be a strong, cheap set-up guy for them, for example.

            • Avi says:

              How about Brett Gardner, Nova and Warren for Colby Rasmus?
              Because I don’t believe Jesus will catch how about Betances, Noesi and Romine for Carlos Santana?
              I think Santana is a 24 year old Jorge Posada. A Switch hitting Catcher with a strong arm who hits for power and draws a TON of walks.
              We’ve become so used to having a good offensive catcher. Posada is going to be VERY dificult to replace.
              This is from Baseball America: Scouts and managers still aren’t sold that Montero can be a regular catcher, however. He allowed a league high 15 passed balls and 99 steals while throwing out 23 percent of basestealers.

              Zach Grenkie might become available and so on and so forth.
              There are endless possibilities.
              It’s possible to bring back value without upping your payroll substantially.

              • chris c. says:

                How about Brett Gardner, Nova and Warren for Colby Rasmus?

                NO WAY!!!! Rasmus aint that great. Plus, he’s spent a good portion of the season trying to whine his way out of St. Louis. Nobody wants out of that organization, so there must be something wrong with him.

      • chris c. says:

        “You have to be able as an organization to distinguish between the elite-potential keepers (HUghes, Montero) and the very effective but limited pieces (Kennedy, countless others).”

        I see……..so the Yankees are intelligent for knowing that Kennedy isn’t an elite-potential keeper, yet they treated him like one on draft day.

        • It'sATarp says:

          Tons of high draft picks fail. Mosely was a former first rounder, so was a bunch of other avg players and busts.

          • chris c. says:

            How is Kennedy a failure? The guy is 25 years old, and just completed a major league season as a full time starter with an ERA in the 3′s. How many guys from the first 3 rounds of his draft are doing alot better than that?

            The only people who view Kennedy as a failure are Yankee fans who are trying to make the Granderson trade look like a work of art. And the same people who are bagging on AJAX were also the ones who couldn’t wait for the AJAX era in pinstripes to begin.

            Know what Bernie Williams and Mariano Rivera were doing when they were the same age as Jackson and Kennedy? Not much. Guys need time to develope.

            • It'sATarp says:

              not saying he’s a failure, saying being drafted in the first round does no equate to being sure fire talent for the future or will last over the future. See Mark Prior.

  4. Brett says:

    We could have been calling them the VB’s! (In reference to a certain Aussie beer)

  5. kosmo says:

    IPK, Ajax and Coke for Granderson.
    In 2010 IPK outpitched Burnett and Vasquez granted it was in the “weak“NL West as most folks on here like to call it.
    Now Detroit is considering Coke as a SP and Ajax might very well be the ROY.
    Granderson stunk it up for all but 6 weeks of the season .Granderson could very well have a positive longterm impact with NY but that still remains to be seen.
    Next season will probably determine who got the better of the deal but by then no one will care.

    • Esteban says:

      Hahahahaa you’re making a case that the Granderson trade was bad because Detroit may or may not have thought about making Phil Coke a starter? Are you serious with that one? The guy who had 1.438 as a reliever? Seriously?

      • kosmo says:

        I´m not in anyway asserting that .
        If you pay the least bit of attention you would find out that Coke faded in September from overwork.My point is Granderson was not worth 3 players.He had a good September.Period.
        Next season will prove if Ajax is a solid major league player and IPK is a solid SP.If Granderson hits under .250 like he did this year he´ll be run out of NY.

        • Ted Nelson says:

          “If Granderson hits under .250 like he did this year he´ll be run out of NY.”

          Are you really using BA as THE measure of a player’s season? Is it 1970?

          “My point is Granderson was not worth 3 players”

          AS you say, it really depends how good those 3 players are. IPK and AJax had pretty much the best season any rational person would have expected. I think it was fair for the Yankees to not think they’d be quite as good and to think Granderson would be a little better (though he was still good). It seemed like the Yankees had pretty much given up on IPK (or at least I had). Coke and Dunn would have both been behind Boone Logan the way he pitched this season, and Marte when he was healthy. The trade might not be a slam dunk long-term, but I think it was very justifiable. Especially given the OF uncertainty going into the season if Gardner and AJax were 2 of your starters. A light hitting OF prospect, your 6th or 7th starter, and a decent lefty reliever for a power hitting CF a couple seasons removed from being an elite player and still under 30… I think the Yankees would do it every time.

          • chris c. says:

            “If Granderson hits under .250 like he did this year he´ll be run out of NY.”

            “Are you really using BA as THE measure of a player’s season?”

            Okay, you wanna use OBP? Not much better. Sorry, champ……a guy who hits .247 and doesn’t like to walk either is nothing special. He’s basically a #7 or #8 hitter the Yankees are trying to force into the 2 hole.
            If it wasn’t for the late season increase in long balls, his season would be a complete bust.

            • It'sATarp says:

              Grandy’s obp/avg split is actually better than everyone on the team other than Gardner and posada this year. So he does take walks. Also you can’t disregard his injury and monster second half and focus on his slow start. That be just stupid b/c the guy were going to see inthe future will most likely be the guy after adjustments rather than him before b/c there is no way grandy goes back to his first half stance.

          • chris c. says:

            “I think it was fair for the Yankees to not think they’d be quite as good and to think Granderson would be a little better (though he was still good).”

            In the prime of his career, Granderson had a .250 BA last year. Sorry, I don’t think it’s reasonable at all to think that Austin JAckson wouldn’t be better than that. To do it in year 1 was a surprise though.

            “A light hitting OF prospect, your 6th or 7th starter, and a decent lefty reliever for a power hitting CF a couple seasons removed from being an elite player and still under 30… I think the Yankees would do it every time.”

            The Yankees made trades like this every time……..in the 80′s!! Thankfully, they don’t do it all the time these days. When Austin Jackson was here, everyone was pencilin him in as a future stud. Now he stinks, after hitting around .300 in his rookie year for someone else. I love it.

      • chris c. says:

        “Hahahahaa you’re making a case that the Granderson trade was bad because Detroit may or may not have thought about making Phil Coke a starter?”

        Oh my God. That’s what you took from his post??

    • MIkeD says:

      If IPK, AJax and Coke were somehow all offered back to the Yankees for Granderson, the Yankees would and should pass.

      • chris c. says:

        If IPK, AJax and Coke were somehow all offered back to the Yankees for Granderson, the Yankees would and should pass.

        WRONG! They should take the deal, put Coke back in the pen as the 2nd lefty, dangle Austin Jackson as trade bait for another need since he increased his value, then go sign Carl Crawford!
        At this point, the Yankees should and would do backflips if those 3 guys were offered back for Granderson.

  6. Big Stein says:

    the thing about the Vizcaino trade is they expected Javy to bring in two first round picks when he hit free agency, and next year’s draft is a bumper crop.

    That’s the big part that was lost — the future high draft picks.

    It wouldn’t be so bad if we could have offset the Arodys loss with two stud picks.

  7. Avi says:

    “Quibble about the order if you want, but the names are generally correct.”
    I don’t think the 6th best prospect in the SALLY league (Vizcaino – low class A) is a better prospect than the 4th best in the Florida State league (Betances – High class A), or the 5th best in the Eastern League (Brackman – Double A).
    Wanted to quibble.

    • Chris says:

      I agree. Vizcaino seemed to get a bump in prospect value when he was traded and he’s kept it.

      Specifically, comparing him to Banuelos I don’t see why Vizcaino would be a better prospect. Banuelos is a couple months younger and spent most of the season at high-A, with a AA cameo. Vizcaino was similarly in low-A and high-A this year – so about a year behind. Add on his injury, which may not be serious, but is still an arm injury and I don’t see why he would be higher than Banuelos.

      • Am I the only Kevin? says:

        Don’t forget the lefty/righty deal. The value of a lefty pitching prospect is always greater than a righty with a similar tools and performance profile.

  8. Big Stein says:

    AJax led the AL in strikeouts this year with 170, which is really odd, since he’s not a power hitter.

    Pete Incaviglia set the rookie record for strikeout with 185 back in 1986, but he hit 30 homers. Adam Dunn had 170 Ks in his first full year in the majors, but he hit 26 Hrs.

    It’s not idea for a leadoff hitter and contact hitter to rack up so manny whiffs.

    • JGS says:

      There have been 177 instance of a player has striking out 150+ times. Ajax in 2010 is the first one to have single digit home runs.

      Of the 52 times a player has struck out 170+ times, only four had fewer than 20 home runs (four also had more than 50, and 15 had 40+).

      • Avi says:

        Interesting. Didn’t know his K’s were that historically bad!

        • Wanna know something else bad? He only hit .226 against lefties… as a RHB. That was worse than the oft-maligned Curtis Granderson hit against lefties.

        • kosmo says:

          Granderson struck out 174 times in 2006 and averages in the neigborhood of 140 a season.
          The argument that Ajax strikes out a lot is a stupid one.
          Ajax had something like 45 extra base hits has great speed and is an excellent CF.He´ll show more power as he matures.
          Leyland has nothing but praise for him.

          • Why do you think he’ll show more power? He doesn’t have that kind of swing at all. Just because you get older doesn’t mean you develop power.

            Doubles you get because of speed don’t lead you to suddenly hit homeruns.

          • It'sATarp says:

            granderson also hits 20-30 hrs a year. Ajax is grandy without the power and a inflated babip. next year i would be surprised if he hits under .300 with a BA closer to .270 than what he has now. Granderson basically does everything Ajax does (speed, fielding etc) and more.

          • detroit_yankee says:

            “He´ll show more power as he matures.”

            Not in Comerica Park, he won’t.

      • CS Yankee says:

        File this stat.

        Ajax, by name alone, should rake with power but he has little to no upside in power. It is more likely to see him bat .270 next year with 3 dingers than it is to see another 300′ish…but even if he hits 300 again, the dingers won’t amount to much. His last full season at SWB, he had 3.

        Grandy doesn’t have the K issue but has the powwer bat in a CF position. He has made some big hits against lefties but that will likely continue to be an issue. He is quite capable of reaching 40, but should always be in the 20-30 range. It is quite unusual for CF today to have that much power.

        Then, now & in the future;
        Granderson >>>>>>> Ajax

        • CS Yankee says:

          BTW, “File this stat” goes out to JGS. That is totally unbelievable…in a bad way.

          I know Ajax has upside, but when you can have a proven CF’er with power versus a prospect with no power…well, TSJC would say something like ” you take that 8 days a week & twice on Sundays”.

    • chris c. says:

      “AJax led the AL in strikeouts this year with 170, which is really odd, since he’s not a power hitter.”

      Jeter strikes out three times more per season than Albert Pujols. Yet guess who is the face of baseball. Now THAT’s odd.

      • It'sATarp says:

        What that makes no sense. Pujols is well above jeter as a hitter. His ability to make contact and draw walks more than jeter along with his power makes him the best hitter onthe league… It’s not even a debate. Being the face of baseball doesn’t equate to anything other than being popular and ppl cn argue that too.

  9. Big Stein says:

    exactly. You expect hitters who take big hacks and swing for the fences to strike out, not contact hitters who have a shorter swing.

  10. Captain Jack says:

    I hated AJax and IPK, glad to have seen them left…I tolerated Phil Coke in doses, that trade I loved and stood by all season. Arodys I wanted to keep…I recall reading a rumor that they offered Arodys and other good prospects for Cliff Lee but the Phillies took the Mariners steaming pile of cat shit instead. Sucks for all parties, except the Mariners, involved.

    • Tom Zig says:

      Think about it like this:

      You are Ruben Amaro, your team was the defending World Champions and was in the WS for the 2nd consecutive year and was handily defeated by Brian Cashman’s team. Now Brian Cashman, fresh off his parade through the Canyon of Heroes, calls you up and asks to trade for not only your best pitcher, but the only pitcher in all of the playoffs that year who actually beat his team and shut it down (The Yankees lost only 3 other games in the playoffs, 2 were due to AJ meltdowns, one was due to a walkoff in Anaheim).

      What do you say to Brian Cashman?

      Do you tell him to go screw? Or do you actually trade him your pitcher?

      Remember you are Ruben Amaro.

      • AndrewYF says:

        I keep that awesome pitcher and pair him with Halladay for an unstoppable force of epic proportions.

        I mean, that’s what I would do. Ruben Amaro evidently thought Lee was expendable.

        • V says:

          Exactly. And it’s not like Cliff Lee was going to lose value. The Mariners got more for him when trading him to the Rangers than they gave up to get him!

    • chris c. says:

      “I hated AJax and IPK, glad to have seen them left…”

      That’s just weird. You’d never seen Jackson bat in your life heading into this season, and you know it.

      “…I tolerated Phil Coke in doses, that trade I loved and stood by all season.”

      If you loved it so much, why’d you feel the need to stand by it all season? Coke was a good pitcher most of last season, so cut the shit already.

      “I recall reading a rumor that they offered Arodys and other good prospects for Cliff Lee but the Phillies took the Mariners steaming pile of cat shit instead.”

      Yeah, those dumb Phillies. They should have traded Lee to the Yankees. So when they get to the WS this year, they could have faced a staff of Sabathia, Lee, Pettitte and Hughes. I don’t know…..I guess the Phillies were looking ahead, and really wanted a shot at winning it all this year instead of helping the Yankees futher stack their deck. Those jerks.

  11. vinny-b says:

    wzup Mike

    btw: you know you’re only ranking Vizcaino over Banuelos, becuz Banuelos has a slight frame.

    nice piece

  12. Good stuff, Mike.

    That’s the minus side for the organization, now the question follows “Where would the Yanks have been this year w/o Granderson, Logan, Vazquez, Wood, Berkman and Kearns?”

    -Granderson’s production could have been somewhat replicated by A-Jax, though with less pop and far more SO.

    -Boone Logan turned out to be the most important part of the Vazquez deal. Dunn was far less MLB ready, walks far too many. It’s impossible to assess just how many games would have been lost in his absence, but with Marte going down for the year they would have had to find a LOOGY somewhere. If we assume it’s Dunn, then his wildness would have cost them a game or two.

    -Vazquez was a major disappointment. Any number of AAA pitchers could have replicated and probably surpassed his overall performance, and had a minor leaguer pitched as badly as Javy their leash with the team would have been far shorter. Better off w/o him.

    -Nobody on that list is likely to have done what Wood did this year, and you could argue that the Yanks would have been in a dogfight for the WC w/o Wood. That probably means overuse your vets and banged up players, and therefore could mean an early exit even if they beat out Boston.

    -Berkman and Kearns didn’t add much, but Z-Mac would have never pitched with the Yanks and Melancon showed a troublesome lack of control in his short stints with the Yanks. To get some MLB quality for Z-Mac and MM is at worst a wash, probably a small net plus.

    • I think everything you said was fair except the blurb about Vazquez. The problem with looking at his season averages is that it’s skewed by how bad he was at the beginning and end of the season. In the summer he was probably the Yankees best and most consistent pitcher – something that could not have been replicated by a AAA arm. Could a AAA pitcher have put up better numbers over the course of the season? Sure. But it’s a question of having someone who is consistently meh over someone who was sometimes very bad and sometimes very good.

      • Once and Future Lurker says:

        Isn’t the whole point of a 162-game season that we *can* look at averages and have them mean something? Javy’s wins in the summer were great, but his losses were terrible. With the Yankees lineup, I’d rather have 30 toss-ups than 15 guaranteed wins and 15 guaranteed losses (which is essentially what Javy gave us over the course of the season). If a AAA pitcher puts up better numbers over the course of the season, then he had a better season. Why would we not want that?

        • Sure the averages mean something. But they’re still just that – averages. Some of his losses were terrible, some were because he got no run support. I still think there was a lot of value in his summer run that basically stabilized the rotation and allowed the Yankees to enter September with a large buffer of wins.

          Yes, he started and finished terribly. But, given what we had seen of Nova (the Yankees best AAA replacement) would the Yankees have won more games without him? I doubt it. Saying the Yankees were “better off” without Vazquez is taking it a bit too far, which was my point.

  13. Januz says:

    The way to look at a trade is over time. If they win the WS then most of the trades will have worked out. I have no doubt that without Wood and Granderson, they would not even be in the playoffs. Kennedy and Melancon strike me as guys that are better off in a different situation than in New York, so even if they achieve decent status, it is not a killer trade. Vizcaino might be the one that hurts the most, if he reaches his potential. But the one thing that gives me hope this trade will not bite them is history. The Yankees (Like every team) has made some bad trades, but they have never made the franchise buster (Like Bagwell for Anderson or Randy Johnson for Langston). It might be one of the least discussed reasons why they have won 27 Championships. In fact, if you look at the worst trades they ever made, they usually found a way to make a one sided deal in their favor. For example: The Toronto trade of McGriff for Mayberry may have been the worst trade in the franchise’s history. But Marty Janzen, Jason Jarvis and Mike Gordon for Cone was also one sided. Close behind was Jay Buhner for Ken Phelps, but they more than made up for that one, with Sterling Hitchcock and Russ Davis for Tino Martinez and Jeff Nelson. Simply put, they will be ok, when all is ssid and done.

    • “The way to look at a trade is over time”

      This is actually the opposite of true. The only way to look at a trade is with the information you had available at the time. Anything else is second guessing and hindsight, aided by knowledge unobtainable at the time the trade was consummated. Leave the second guessing and the hindsight to the tabloids.

      • Ted Nelson says:

        Certainly you can’t evaluate the trade from a “judging the front office” perspective with much use of hindsight. (I think a little is justified: no two people are likely to agree 100% on prospects, so if you thought a team made a mistake by trading a prospect you liked and history proves you correct… or if a team trades a player they think is over the hill and you think still has some good years left… or if a team trades for a player they think they can “fix”… or takes a risk on a character guy… If you disagreed at the time of the trade, being right or wrong has to count for something.)

        However, from a “fan of the team” perspective then of course you’re looking at how things turned out in the long-run.

      • chris c. says:

        “The way to look at a trade is over time”

        This is actually the opposite of true. The only way to look at a trade is with the information you had available at the time.

        Right……the information you have that enables you to evaluate how the trade will impact your team OVER TIME. Sheesh!
        I mean, the information I have right now tells me that Nick Swisher is a better major league hitter than Bryce Harper.
        Think Washington makes that trade?

        “Anything else is second guessing and hindsight, aided by knowledge unobtainable at the time the trade was consummated.”

        What are you talking about?? Organizations pay people VERY GOOD MONEY to predict the future happinings of ballplayers. It is not hindsight or second guessing. It is predictions based on experience and trends. Nothing is for certain, but it’s not really luck either. Otherwise, every GM and scout would be the same, and none would be better than any other.

        “Leave the second guessing and the hindsight to the tabloids.”

        And another thing…….there are very intelligent people out there who played the game and know the game very well. Just because someone played major league baseball then had a clear unblocked path into coaching or organizational decision making does not mean they are the smartest baseball people on the planet. There is nothing wrong with second guessing trades if you’re smart enough to understand statistics well enough to realize a deal may make no sense. Joe Morgan thinks RBI is the the most important stat in baseball. And every Sunday Night, he’s employed with ESPN to educate you on the game. See what I mean?

  14. AndrewYF says:

    Yeah, I don’t think I quite agree with the Viz Mark 2 being a better prospect right now than Betances or Banuelos. Betances’s injury is further in the past and he has similar stuff. Banuelos is actually younger than Viz, is a lefty, and arguably has better projectable stuff.

    If Viz never got injured, maybe I could see it. But come on, a tear, however slight, means something is wrong and they’re going to need to change it. We have no idea how that will affect him.

    • vinny-b says:

      I expect Mike A went with Vizcaino over Banuelos, becuz Banuelos has a slight frame and not very tall for a pitcher. Don’t believe he is as small as Pedro tho?

      anyway, maybe he used that as a tie-breaker

  15. kosmo says:

    Just for the record Granderson SO on the average of once per 4.5 PA and Ajax once every 4.0 PA

    Is there a real difference? .5 WOW

    • kosmo says:

      That should read in 2010

    • Accent Shallow says:

      Difference being: Granderson hits for power.

      • kosmo says:

        Let´s at least give Ajax a chance .Granderson is a veteran and on average will not be better than his career numbers have already indicated.A streaky .260 hitter who struggles against LHP .

        • And Jackson is a .300 hitter who hits for no power and actually struggled against LHP more than Granderson did in 2010.

          And before you say “I’d rather have the .300 hitter”, don’t. A guy who hits .260 but hits for 20+ HR power is way more valuable than a .300 singles hitter.

          • Dream of Electric Sheep/ still haven't register /too lazy says:

            His 107 ISO aren’t horrific for a CF . The guy is a rookie who is playing in a cavernous stadium. Who is to say he won’t improve on his power numbers as he develops?

            If I had 2 corner OFer who can hit 30 hrs , I would have been fine with starting AJAX. Granderson is better fit on how this Yankee team is constructed and has the rare commodity of way above average power for a CF.

            • Who is to say he won’t improve on his power numbers as he develops?

              Because he’s never shown power at any level at any point in his career. He’s 23 years old and never showed power at any level in the minors. What makes you think he’ll suddenly change the type of player he is in the major leagues? He’s always been a line drive/speed type.

              If I had 2 corner OFer who can hit 30 hrs , I would have been fine with starting AJAX.

              How does having two power hitting corner outfielders justify carrying an inferior player? The goal is to put the best team on the field, not settle for “good enough”.

              Granderson is better fit on how this Yankee team is constructed and has the rare commodity of way above average power for a CF.

              Exactly.

              • Dream of Electric Sheep/ still haven't register /too lazy says:

                1. doubles and Triples Ross, Power in the form a gap power , which is reasonable to assume.

                2. it justifies in salaries and prospects less rendered. we gave up a total 7 WAR in value in acquire Granderson.

              • It'sATarp says:

                don’t forget the stadium effect. In comerica park’s wide spaces, sometimes balls that would be singles in yankees stadium can become doubles and tripe due to more field and more space for balls to find gaps.

              • chris c. says:

                “Because he’s never shown power at any level at any point in his career. He’s 23 years old and never showed power at any level in the minors.”

                Who gives a shit. Not everyone in the order needs to hit home runs.

                “How does having two power hitting corner outfielders justify carrying an inferior player?”

                Inferior to whom? A guy who just hit .247, doesn’t walk, is not as fast, is older, and doesn’t cover as much ground in center. Jackson is not an inferior player……he is a different player than Granderson.

                “Granderson is better fit on how this Yankee team is constructed and has the rare commodity of way above average power for a CF.”

                Translation: We got a real shallow fence in right, and Granderson has the perfect swing for it.
                That’s what you should have said in the first place, instead of all this bullshit about how Jackson, in his rookie year, is an inferior product.
                You’ll probably be looking real stupid in about 2-3 years from now, but I’m sure you won’t be around taking bows for that.

          • chris c. says:

            LMAO!!!! Are you really going number for number between a guy in his prime, and a guy who just had his first major league at-bat 6 months ago??
            Are you shitting me???

      • chris c. says:

        “Difference being: Granderson hits for power.”

        And here’s what Granderson’s power did for the Yankees this year:
        He homered at least once in 21 ballgames this year. Only 5 times did his home runs amount to a beneficial difference in that ballgame. The other 16 games wee either losses or blowouts. And judging by Granderson’s other offensive numbers, he did little else offensively when he wasn’t homering.

        So Curtis Granderson, with all his home run prowess, was a factor in helping the Yankees win 5 ballgames out of 162 this season with his home runs.

        So let’s calm down already with this crap.

    • The difference isn’t .5. The difference is .5 * PA. Which, in 600 to 700 PA, really freaking adds up.

      • kosmo says:

        I´m sorry Joe I don´t understand what your saying. If Granderson had 150 more PA which is around the number of PA Ajax posted his totals would have been around 150 SOs at 4.5 PA.20 more K´s for Ajax is not a big difference.

        • It'sATarp says:

          20K’s is still a lot…you act like it’s nothing but thats 20 AB’s where he isn;t even putting the ball in play meaning there’s 0 chance of anything falling for a hit.

          • chris c. says:

            “20K’s is still a lot…you act like it’s nothing but thats 20 AB’s where he isn;t even putting the ball in play meaning there’s 0 chance of anything falling for a hit.”

            And this is his first major league season, pinhead!

            • It'sATarp says:

              what does that have to do with anything “pinhead”. striking out is striking out. so your saying if it was his second season those 20k’s wouldn’t matter? are you really that stupid? You whole argument with everyone here is basically it’s his first year…yea sure but he has been doing this in the minor leagues too so don’t make it seem as if it’s an anomaly. just saying it and not backing up with fact or numbers is just pinheaded.

              Sure his K rates could drop, but that requires a retuning of his batting stance and a change in approach to the plate. and honestly looking at guys with that high k rates such as Reynolds and dunn, it’s unlikely to happen over one or two seasons. Also it’s not like the guy has been having great plate discipline. he only has a 7% walk rate, and a OBP/avg split of .050 points…which is half the split of a guy like gardner. The only reason his avg is so high is a .396 BABIP (which he has no control of) which is higher than Babe Ruth’s career BABIP. It would be fair to say Ajax is no where the hitter ruth is, so basically AJax has been lucky this year and his production next year, unless he makes some major changes, is going to drop like a rock.

              • chris c. says:

                what does that have to do with anything “pinhead”. striking out is striking out. so your saying if it was his second season those 20k’s wouldn’t matter?

                No, I’m saying once he gets more accustomed to major league pitching, he will cut down on the strikeouts! Go check out the strikeout rates of Granderson per season through 2006, when he was 2 years older than Jackson is now. One year he k’s 174 times!
                If you want to make the power argument, fine. But the strikeout argument is stupid, because that can be decreased with experience.

                And once again, if Austin Jackson can develope into a .300 hitter, .370 OBP, and swipe 40-50 bags a year while playing a stellar outfield and cutting his k’s by 25% or better, then who gives a rats ass about home runs?

                • It'sATarp says:

                  Dude all your arguments are based on gut rather than facts and numbers. i can say Granderson will hit .330/.380 next year with 30 hr’s 30 steals but it’s most likely not going to happen just because i said so.

                  Look at the facts, ajax is playing over his head right now, next year unless he makes a lot of adjustments he’s not going to produce at the same rate he is this year unless he hit the lottery twice in two years. i’m not saying he can’t make crazy improvements but i’m saying it’s unlikely. plus Ajax’s minor league numbers points to him always being very prone to striking out at a 25%+ rate while if you look at grandy’s minor league numbers it isn’t as strikeout crazy as Ajax’s (only once did granderson in the minors struck out more than 100 times in a season). and for Grandy his rates in 2006 is more of an anomaly while for ajax his numbers are not far off his minor league k rates.

  16. Dream of Electric Sheep/ still haven't register /too lazy says:

    I was a huge skeptic of Javy in AL EAST. I wanted Sheets more than anyone else. Whom represents higher ceiling but higher risk than Javy. Anywho, it turned out neither were a good choice. But I am sure wish we kept someone like Arodys.

    We gave up a lot to get Granderson, those played accrued a collective 7 FWAR for their respective teams. But , Granderson is a good fit consider how the team is constructed and the win now M.O. of the Yanks. So, no complaints there.

    • vinny-b says:

      bottom line, the Yankees outfield is:

      Gardner, Granderson, Swisher

      personally, i wouldn’t trade that outfield with any other team in MLB

      when is the last time you could say that?

    • Jerome S. says:

      You’re either a fucking genius or a liar. Either way, I dislike you.

  17. larryf says:

    Melky making the last out yesterday insures that neither he, Damon or Matsui can hurt us from here on out.

    Nice.

  18. pete says:

    This thread is funny. It’s amazing how many people knew that Javy would suddenly lose 4+ mph on his fastball this year, and/or that Granderson would get injured and miss 4+ weeks.

    The crazy thing is that had Javy NOT lost that velocity, he’d probably be starting in the ALCS, possibly even before Hughes. And if Curtis hadn’t missed that time, he probably would have been the fifth Yankee (Tex, A-Rod, Cano, Swish, Grandy) to push 30 HRs. And if A-Jax hadn’t had an astronomical BABIP all year he would probably have been a below-average offensive player. It’s almost like those trades looked good without the benefit of hindsight.

  19. Jerome S. says:

    Granderson will hit .290/.375/.550 next year with 30 homers, 30 stolen bases, 30 doubles and fifteen triples.
    Just watch.
    Austin Jackson will be a dud.

  20. chris c. says:

    “And before you say “I’d rather have the .300 hitter”, don’t. A guy who hits .260 but hits for 20+ HR power is way more valuable than a .300 singles hitter.”

    So you’d take Nick Swisher over Ichiro. Brilliant.

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