Yanks land six prospects on BA’s Top 100

2011 Season Preview: Russell Martin
2011 Draft: Cape Cod League Standouts

Baseball America released their annual list of the top 100 prospects in baseball today, which you can find here: 1-20, 21-40, 41-60, 61-80, 81-100. Jesus Montero was ranked as the third best prospect in the game, trailing only Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. Domonic Brown and Julio Teheran round out the top five. Gary Sanchez came in at number 30, Manny Banuelos number 41, Dellin Betances number 43, and Andrew Brackman at number 78. Austin Romine snuck in as number 98. I’m pleasantly surprised that Romine made the cut, and that’s really quite a showing for the Yankees. Damn impressive.

This is only the second time in the 21-year history of BA’s top 100 that the Yankees have had six guys appear on the list. The other came back was 1999, with Nick Johnson (18), Ryan Bradley (25), Alfonso Soriano (39), Ricky Ledee (70), Jackson Melian (72), and Drew Henson (100). Only three of those guys made the top 50, though.

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2011 Season Preview: Russell Martin
2011 Draft: Cape Cod League Standouts
  • pat

    I must admit, I have never heard of Ryan Bradley.

    • Kevin

      yeah who the hell is ryan bradley? and 5 royals in the top 20? wow

      • king of fruitless hypotheticals

        nor Jackson Melian.

        Does that say anything about how even top 100 prospects can still fail?

        • whozat

          Sure. It also says something about the fact that BA weighs upside over probability fairly heavily. I mean, Harper hasn’t even played a professional game yet, has he? Sanchez hasn’t played in a full-season league.

          • RR

            Fall Leauge

        • MannyGee

          yeah, in small print in the bottom, but it only references that Yankees prospects barely make it. Sox prospects are a lock.

        • Accent Shallow

          I had to look Bradley up, too. Here is his b-ref minors page. He crushes A+ in 1998, but it looks like he started in the pen before moving to the rotation.

          Melian is one of the saddest stories in prospect watching: Read the last sentence of the first paragraph under the 1997-1999 heading.

      • Avi

        Bradley was a right handed starter that dominated in the minors. He pitched briefly for the Yanks in ’98, went back down to the minors to polish his game and was never effective again. I think arm injuries were a part of it.

        • Don W

          While he started some games in the minors Bradley had the look of a dominating relief prospect. He flew through the minors going from A+ to the majors at 22. It all blew up on him the next year.

          • bottom line

            Bradley looked brilliant in a couple of appearances with the Yankees. I remember him fanning Purdge Rodriguez on a wicked slider. He hurt his arm, though, and was never the same.

      • Thomas

        BA lists Odorizzi’s best tool as his delivery. I don’t recall every seeing that before.

        • Thomas

          That wasn’t supposed to be a reply.

        • Bulldozer

          Zach Lee too.

  • Tank the Frank

    I just don’t get Bryce Harper. How can he possibly be the #1 prospect in the game? I mean, I get that he’s 18 and his ceiling is already through the roof, but hasn’t even seen one professional pitch. Everything about him right now is projection and sheer fantasy.

    • MannyGee

      ummm he hit the back of the Trop…

      sure, it was a 70 mph meatball in a HR derby, and he was hitting from 1st base… but still…

      • MannyGee

        oh, and metal bats FTW

    • The Real JobaWockeeZ

      College is considered by some to be the equivalent of low A. And he’s been called the best power prospect ever and the success rate for a top tier hitting prospect is pretty damn good.

      They even broke down his swing and loved it.

    • Chops

      It really comes down to how you define “prospect.”

      A lot of people believe that it’s really about ranking potential and their chance to reach that potential. In Bryce Harper’s case, its very high in both cases.

    • Ted Nelson

      Certainly there’s a lot of room for error with a teenage prospect, but LeBron was on ESPN and the cover of SI at like 16, 17. Strasburg was #2 last season. So this isn’t really unprecedented.

    • pete

      what’s more, he’s a RF. He projects to be a potentially excellent defensive RF, for sure, but he’s not an elite SS or CF or anything.

      • YanksFan in MA

        Actually word is he will start out at CF now. Makes sense with Werth at RF for the foreseeable future. Law has been touting this for a while, as a transition to another middle of the field position should be easier for him. Not sure I’m buying that but whatever.

  • Sweet N Sour Chicken Pot Pie, with tartar sauce

    I dont really follow tha minros, is this mOntero a goood proospect. how is #3??

    • http://www.twitter.com/tomzig Tom Zig

      He’s an excellent prospect.

    • Thomas

      Just to give you a basis of how good. His bat has been compared to Delgado, Miguel Cabrera, and Frank Thomas, so he is a legit middle of the order, .300 with 30+ HRs batter. His weakness is he is very poor defense at the level of Posada or Piazza (and he is too slow/unathletic to play any position other than C/1B/DH).

  • http://www.twitter.com/tomzig Tom Zig

    Is 1-20 supposed to be behind the paywall or is it just me

    • Avi

      I thought it would be all 100. I remember it always being that way too.

      • http://www.twitter.com/tomzig Tom Zig

        Actually if you click 21-40 and then click their link “See Nos. 1-20″ it works.

  • Avi

    Amazing showing by the Yanks here. Good to see Jesus get the respect he deserves. Pleasantly surprised Romine made it. I’m also surprised they ranked Banuelos ahead of Betances when they had it the other way around in the Yankee’s top 10.

    • YanksFan in MA

      The top 10 was by 1 analyst only. Top 100 was a combination of all of their top 150 lists.

      • Avi

        True. Good point.

  • http://www.twitter.com/tomzig Tom Zig

    stupid question:

    the BA grade is the grade given to that prospect’s best tool, right?

    • Thomas

      “We’re focusing on the best tool for each player, handing out a best-case grade on the 20-80 scouting scale—where 20 is the worst, 80 the best, and 50 major league average. Ages are as of March 31, and ETA is the year we expect the player to establish himself as a big leaguer.”

      I assumed when I read the list is was for his best tool, but that quote makes it sound like it is overall best case for the player.

  • MattG

    Ho hum. None of these scouting sites say anything different from the others. Considering that these top 100s are such a mixed bag, you would expect the prospect rankings to have some variance. What variance there is seems to be mostly due to methodology (i.e. weighting ceiling vs probability) than opinion over the players.

    They have to rank it like they see it, but it would be refreshing to see someone drop Trout because he has no power, D Brown because he has no plate discipline, or (hush!) Montero because he has no position.

    • Thomas

      Domonic Brown’s IsoD is about 0.070, which is not great but fine if you are a high average hitter (like he is).
      Mike Trout had 28 double, 9 triple, and 10 HR as a 18 year old in A/A+ that shows good power with very good potential.

      • Don W

        Beware of Angel prospect #’s. Most of their minor league affiliates home parks are hitters parks in hitters leagues.

    • The Real JobaWockeeZ

      If you want a different methodology check out this.
      http://projectprospect.com/art.....spect-list

    • RL

      …” or (hush!) Montero because he has no position.

      Montero may have no position on the Yankees if he can’t stick at catcher, but if his bat approaches the projected ceiling that has been set, he’ll have a position with some team, either at 1B (if he can make the transition) or at DH. If his bat is truely as good as they project, he will have a position.

    • pete

      Montero was 9th in MLB.com’s list. Banuelos was 12th on KLaw’s, 41st here. Etc, etc. There’s plenty of variance, just generally not much amongst the top 5-10 guys.

  • Monteroisdinero

    Montero has Miggy’s bat without the booze for 4-500K a year for the next 5 years or so.

    /nice

  • Chops

    I don’t understand certain tools they have listed.

    Jake Odorizzi’s best tool is his delivery, but what does that mean? Is it a measure of deception? least amount of injury risk?

  • David

    Read Part 1 of Frankie’s emailed Q & A. It could hardly be better.

    Conclusions:

    Montero – definitely MLB catcher.

    Banuelos – ace.

    Betances – ace potential, but more questions.

    Sanchez – ultra impressive, but years away.

    Adams – very good player.

  • CS Yankee

    Was Griffey Jr, the last player to go from HS directly to MLB?

    • pat

      He played 2 yrs in the minors.

    • steven

      i belive it was arod

    • Ted Nelson

      http://www.baseball-almanac.com/feats/feats9.shtml

      Leake did it in 2010.

      Griffey played in the minors.

      A-Rod also played in the minors, though he did make the majors in his first pro season (17 games in July… .445 OPS).

      Ben MacDonald only appeared in 2 MiLB games before a call up.

      • Ted Nelson

        Oh, sorry… HS… duh… Tim Conroy and Mike Morgan.

        • Ted Nelson

          (Meant “duh” as in “duh I should not have listed NCAA players,” not as in anyone should remember Conroy and Morgan’s brief prep-to-pro debuts. I only know that because I looked it up. Just realized it might read differently.)

      • CS Yankee

        Thanks, great link.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      I think Dave Winfield was. Leake didn’t come out of HS.

      • Ted Nelson

        “Leake didn’t come out of HS.”

        Neither did Winfield…

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

          Ah, good point. My bad.

  • http://kierstenschmidt.com Kiersten

    Impressive.

    I don’t follow prospects that closely (just what I read on here), but it seems crazy to me that Sanchez is ranked so high when he’s still so far away. Also thought there would be a bigger gap between Banuelos and Betances.

  • Jerry In Queens

    Mike Leake did it last year

  • Reggie C.

    did Slade Heathcott fall out of the top 100? Iirc, Heathcott made last year’s list. Sure the farm is better than its been for a decade with high ceiling talent, but several of these guys are going to graduAte to the bigs. Would be nice if Marshall and Heathcott put in full seasons.

    • Ted Nelson

      I don’t think he was on last season’s list.

  • J.R.

    Interesting that Arodys Vizcaino is only listed at 93. From the way he was evaluated in the Braves system (I think number 3 overall) you’d think he would be in the top 50.

    • masonflint

      injury concerns?.. i think he had a minor elbow issue last year, and may of had a couple other probs in past years

      • Rick in Boston

        Yeah, Viz has had some injury issues. It might also explain why Cashman was so willing to move him in the Logan trade.

  • AndrewYF

    I wonder what the other grades are for Montero if his best tool is a 70 in power. I would guess a 65 hit tool, 55 plate discipline, and like, a 30 on defense.

    • crawdaddie

      In the prospect book, they graded Montero’s hitting at 70 too.

    • Monteroisdinero

      Defense will surprise everyone. He is thinner and quicker and more intensely coached since alot of the early scouting reports which are sometimes set in stone and hard to change in the court of fandom….

      • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

        I’m sure you know more about Montero’s defense than just about every scout and actual prospect expert.

        • Monteroisdinero

          Not nice tone to your comment but don’t worry-I won’t say I told you so when the time comes.

          /high road

        • David

          Check out the Piliere interview from a couple of days ago. Monteroisdinero is likely correct.

  • Ivan

    So in the last 4 years, the Yankees have had at least one prospect in the top 5…nice!!!

    • Total Dominication

      Actually 4 of the last 5. Not in 2009.

  • J.R.

    Another interesting fact is that Sanchez is the only player in the top 59 with a projected ETA of 2014.

    • Naved

      Didn’t look at the list yet but how about Sano or Machado?

      • Mike

        Machado is 2013, but is the same age as Sanchez. I’m assuming this is because SS is easier to learn than C? Or just that he is further along.

        Sanchez grading out at 70 power and Callis saying that his hit tool is about the same is extremely exciting. I know the bust rate on teenagers is enormous, but he doesn’t have to realize anywhere close to all that potential to become a very valuable player if he can stay behind the plate. I think the reports on his defense is that he has the ability to stay at C. He’s athletic, quick, and has a strong arm to offset his size. I’ve read (perhaps in Mike’s to 30) that he projects as the best defensive catcher in the organization.

        Again, huge bust rate on these guys, but I’m much more excited about him than I was about Montero at the same point in their careers. Montero was not even ranked after completing his first year and Sanchez is number 30.