Thanks to loyal RAB reader Bryan for sending along this tidbit last night….

Jason Grey, a graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau’s Scout Development Program and two-time Tout Wars champ is scouting the Hawaii Winter League for ESPN. In yesterday’s entry, he offered up his takes on two Yankee pitching prospects, Andrew Brackman and Jeremy Bleich.

We know a lot about Brackman’s pitching style already. He’s tall; he throws hard and has some plus breaking pitches. Grey offers up his take on Brackman’s efforts as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. He likes Brackman’s seldom-used slow curve as a surprise out-pitch and offers up some encouraging reports on Brackman’s rehab:

He’s still battling his mechanics, keeping his delivery too closed at times, and is having the predictable command issues that occur after a ligament replacement in the elbow, but the important thing is his raw stuff has come back, and the 22-year-old could start moving quickly next season. He profiles as a potential front line starter.

The other Yankee pitcher — lefty Jeremy Bleich — was another first-rounder. Drafted this year, Bleich will move through the system as a starter. Grey, however, sees him as a reliever at the big league level:

His fastball was clocked between 88 and 91 mph with easy arm action, and he coupled it with a potential plus pitch in an upper 70s curveball. Though he has a changeup, he put it in his back pocket for his first outing. He had some command issues, leaving the ball up in the strike zone way too much, but if nothing else he profiles as a solid bullpen arm in the big leagues, and perhaps more if he can find more consistent command.

I’m more excited to see what Brackman can do, but it’s great that ESPN is providing readers with a non-Insider blogger covering the winter leagues. The Minor League-obsessed masses will eat this right up.

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When Andrew Brackman may his professional debut last week, things didn’t go quite exactly as planned. The lanky righthander lasted just 2.1 innings and gave up six earned runs on seven hits and two walks. The three strike outs were the only encouraging thing about his start, the first he’s made since Tommy John surgery.

Of course, as is custom in Yankee Universe these days, a few fans flipped out at this turn of events. Some went so far as to call Andrew Brackman a bust based on the seven outs he recorded in late September in Hawaii. Other writers questioned, yet again, Brian Cashman’s suspect (to them) choice of Brackman. Did the Yankees waste their first-round pick, these pessimistic commentators wondered?

The answer is a rather qualified “of course not.” It is entirely unreasonable to assume that a young, unpolished pitcher making his first start in 18 months would have his best stuff. It’s also entirely unreasonable to write off Brackman based on one start.

But — and this is a but too far away for it to be valid — if Brackman doesn’t pan out, no one should be surprised. When the Yankees drafted Andrew Brackman in the first round of the 2007 amateur draft, Brackman became the 30th pick of the draft. History is littered with failed 30th picks. In fact, of the 44 30th picks in history, just one of them is a Hall of Famer, and few others had long Major League careers.

As Baseball Reference’s handy draft database shows us, 30th picks are largely forgettable. Anyone remember Chance Caple, Matt Burch or Eric Hurley? Nick Bierbrodt certainly did wow anyone in his short Major League career.

Of the 30th picks, then, clearly the most successful was Mike Schmidt. He was the sixth pick in the second round of the 1971 draft, just the seventh amateur draft in history. Of the other 30th picks, Chris Sabo, Travis Fryman, Brian Jordan and David Wells had long and somewhat fruitful careers. In recent years, only Noah Lowry and Jack Cust have become regulars out of the 30th pick, and Cust didn’t earn a starting job until he landed on his fifth team in 2007, a full decade after he was originally drafted.

So what, then, are the lessons we can take away from the not-so-stellar pedigree of the 30th draft pick? Well, for one, we shouldn’t place undue expectations on Mr. Brackman. He may have been a first round pick, but beyond the top spots of the draft, in baseball, that’s a largely meaningless distinction. Some 62-round selections have Hall of Fame careers; some number one picks fizzle out. Being a first-round pick doesn’t guarantee any modicum of success.

It also means that we can’t accuse the Yankees of wasting a first-round pick. The team opted for the best talent they thought was available at the 30-pick level. If that talent doesn’t pan out, Brackman won’t be alone among the ranks of fellow draftees. In fact, if he succeeds, he’ll join a rather elite group of 30-pick players who had productive careers.

Finally, this hype is also a warning about the power of the Internet. Prior to a few years ago, most baseball fans would be hard-pressed to name their favorite teams’ draft picks. Today, with Minor League stats readily available and draft previews landing nearly a year ahead of time, fans know more about the draft picks than ever before. But still the can’t-miss guys miss, and the obscure players strike it big. You just never know which player selected late in the draft will be a big star. Courting disappointment and proclaiming draft picks “wasted” is meaningless.

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Not in the big leagues, in Hawaii. Baseball America has the story. The Yanks’ 2007 first rounder still hasn’t thrown a pitch in a game thanks to Tommy John surgery and an appendectomy, but his undeniable talent is worth the wait. Game time is 7pm local, so unless my math is wrong, that’s 1am Sunday on the east coast. Regardless, it’s exciting to see him finally get going.

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In a rare non pro-Red Sox blog post, Peter Gammons notes that the Yanks have told RHP Andrew Brackman “not to even think about pitching this season, just get healthy.” Man, I really can’t wait until this kid gets back into games. Gammons also notes that Brackman “may be a monster talent.” Wave those pom-poms proud, Peter.

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Via PeteAbe comes word that the Yanks have placed Andrew Brackman on the 60-day DL as he rehabs from TJ, and added Billy Traber to the 40-man roster in his place. This doesn’t necessarily mean Traber will be with the big league squad come Opening Day, but his chances just went up exponentially. Let’s just hope the Billy Traber Era goes better than the Wedsel Gary Groom Jr. Era. The Organizational Depth Chart has been updated accordingly.

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Via Pinstripes PA, Getty Images has the “photo day” pics available. You should definitely check ‘em out, but here are the highlights:

• Joba must have that Thinner disease. Dude’s downright skinny.
• Jason Giambi definitely avoided the In-N-Out burgers this winter. Wait, didn’t he say that a few years back?
• Here are your top two position prospects.
• Jesus!
• Andrew Brackman is one big dude.
• Brian Bruney lost a ton of weight. Hopefully he practiced throwing strikes with the empty cans of Slim Fast.
• The Fat Relievers™ aren’t so fat anymore; I’d say … husky.
• Check out Ross Ohlendorf. Tell me that kid doesn’t look like he was born to wear pinstripes.

Make sure you take a look at all the photos. Good stuff. Some of ‘em remind me of yearbook picture day.

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Via the Winston-Salem Journal, the AP is reporting that 2007 first round pick Andrew Brackman is scheduled to begin throwing from 90 feet next week. Brackman is right on target with the rehab schedule I explained in his Prospect Profile. It sucks having to wait a year to see your first rounder take part in game action, but trust me, it’s better than not having a first round pick all together. The AP piece also notes that Humberto Sanchez will start throwing off a mound next month, putting him on target for game action in May.

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NoMaas’ Lane Meyer lays the smack down on all the Brackman haters. His last paragraph sums up everything I’ve been trying to say since he was drafted:

The truth is, none of us know what’s going to happen, and in a vacuum there is every reason to cast doubt on his signing. In reality though, the Yankees weren’t taking Andrew Brackman as the foundation upon which to construct the future, and then building atop and around him with subsequent draft picks. The foundation had already been built, and despite his status as the “first-round pick” Brackman was actually the last addition to the plan; the new wing to a well-built mansion. He is going to be the single most fun prospect to follow in the coming months, regardless of the ultimate outcome of his career. If he fails it’s not because the Yankees made a terrible decision, it is because the flaws that every prospect has prevented him from developing. It is for the same reasons that the majority of first-round picks never amount to anything significant. However if he succeeds…oh man if he succeeds…

Word.

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I say semi-official because the word comes from The Post:

Andrew Brackman, the Yankees’ first-round pick in the June draft, has decided his right elbow will be better served by undergoing Tommy John surgery, according to agent Scott Boras.

Brackman, who signed a four-year deal worth $4.5 million that includes a $3.3 million signing bonus and could escalate to $13.8 million if incentives are met, has chosen Dr. James Andrews to do the procedure, which normally takes 12 to 18 months to come back from.

The Yankees knew of the 6-foot-10 Brackman’s elbow problems long before taking him with the final pick in the first round. A recent visit to Andrews’ office confirmed a problem and Brackman decided to have the surgery, which, according to Boras, has a 97-percent success rate.

Brackman, who didn’t pitch in the ACC or NCAA tournament because of elbow trouble, was 6-4 with a 3.81 ERA in 78 innings for N.C. State this past season.

Not much of a surprise, and fixin’ elbows is easier than fixin’ shoulders, so it’s not all that bad. The only sucky part is that we have to wait until 2009 to see our top draft pick in action.

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(Check out which former Yanks’ son is having his shot blocked by Brackman in the photo)

As you’ve certainly heard by now, the Yanks signed first round pick Andrew Brackman to a monster contract. A Major League contract in fact. It’s nuts, I know. But hey, Damon Oppenheimer & Co. trust their people and believe the risk is worth the reward, and I can’t help but agree. I’ve noticed quite a few people around the interweb trying to figure out how the hell this deal works, and that’s what I’m here to explain.

Before we start dissecting the deal, let’s first understand the terms of the contract:

• Four years, $4.55M guaranteed Major League deal
• $3.35M signing bonus included
• Roster and performance bonuses can push the value of the contract to upwards of $13M.

The contract would be simple enough to understand if say, Brackman was a 10-year big league vet just looking to change teams. Then it’s simple; it’d be like every other free agent contract given out in the history of man. But he’s not, so the deal gets a bit more complicated.

(more…)

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