Sep
25

Comparing the bullpens of AL contenders

By

Starting pitching goes a long way towards determining how a team does in the playoffs, but having a strong bullpen can mitigate weakness in the rotation. As the Yankees move towards the ALDS and a matchup with Detroit or Texas, I thought it might be useful to see how their bullpen compares to the bullpens of other contenders around the league. I’ve tried to pick out each team’s best relievers, since the playoffs are an “all hands on deck” time in which the big guns get used early and often. Judge for yourself which team has the strongest bullpen. I’ll provide the numbers and note an interesting fact about an individual reliever or the bullpen as a whole.

Yankees bullpen

Since July 30th when he came off the disabled list, Rafael Soriano has thrown 22.1 innings, allowed 6 earned runs, walked 5 and struck out 25. That’s a 2.69 FIP and a 5:1 K/BB ratio. He’s finally looking like the guy the Yankees expected to get when they signed him to his big contract, and if this level of performance holds it doesn’t seem unreasonable to argue that the Yankees have the best trio of relief arms in the American League.

Red Sox bullpen

Matt Albers has the kind of arm that scouts dream on. He throws very hard, and he gets ground balls at a good clip. Early in the year, it looked like Boston had picked up a nice cheap middle innings arm, and at the end of June he had pitched to a 3.03 ERA in 29.2 innings with 12 walks and 27 strikeouts. For whatever reason, the bloom came off the rose. Since the first of July he has a 6.21 ERA in 33.1 innings. While he has struck out 38 batters over this span, he’s walked more than a batter every other inning. He’s no longer a reliable option for Francona, which means the Sox will be leaning heavily on Papelbon and Bard in the postseason.

Rays bullpen

As mentioned yesterday, the Rays have one of the weaker bullpens in recent memory. Farnsworth has great numbers for the Rays this year, but he’s currently trying to overcome elbow soreness. He did appear last night for Tampa, so his troubles may be behind him for now. Peralta has been more than solid, but that’s really where the strength ends. Cruz, Ramos and Howell all have walk rates over 5 per 9 innings, and Gomes is over 4. It’s true that Maddon uses these guys as situational relievers, but the fact is that the Rays middle relief is simply soft. This is why it’s important for the Rays to get length out of their starters, and this is why Matt Moore could be such a huge factor for them in the next week.

Rangers bullpen

*Edit: Adams’ ERA and FIP are 1.51 and 2.48, respectively.

If anyone is going to give the Yankees a run for their money out of the bullpen, it’s the Rangers. Texas made two fantastic moves at the trade deadline this year, adding Mike Adams from San Diego and Koji Uehara from Baltimore. Both relievers strike out loads of batters, and both relievers are stingy with the free passes. They’re exactly what you’d want from your relief pitchers. The weakness here is like Neftali Feliz. While his ERA is close to his 2010 number, his peripherals have deteriorated significantly. He’s striking out fewer guys and struggling with the walks.  He’s been better since the start of August, but he’s still handed out 10 walks in 21 innings.

Tigers bullpen

Provided Valverde doesn’t blow a save over the next few days, a lot is going to be made by various analysts and TV announcers of the fact that Valverde’s save record is perfect this year. As someone who resents his mound antics, I can only say with the upmost sarcasm: “good for him”. Fortunately, Valverde’s peripherals don’t suggest that he’s the type of reliever who could maintain such a level of dominance. He hands out more walks than the reliever who precedes him in the eighth inning and he’s not exactly a groundball machine like Alburqurque. It’s true that he has a nice arsenal of pitches and a tremendous fastball, but if I had to wager on a closer blowing a game in the playoffs this year, I’d go with Feliz first and Valverde second. Fingers crossed!

Categories : Death by Bullpen
  • SamVa

    Is Mike Adams really at a 9.30 ERA?

    • SamVa

      answered my own question, with Texas he is at a 2.28… unless I am missing something.

      • Josh

        It looks like the K/9 has been used for Adams’ and Olivers’ ERA.

  • Peter R

    How are those ERA’s and FIPs so far apart. That has to be irregular?

    • Plank

      Pitching isn’t fielding independent so if a team has good fielders, I would think their ERA would outperform their FIP on a consistent basis.

      Who are you referring to specifically?

      • JobaWockeeZ

        Mike Adams probably but it’s an error on the author’s part.

  • Ben

    you seem to have mixed up Adams and Oliver’s ERA with the K/9

  • Bronx Byte

    The Yankee bullpen will be well prepared. That could be the difference maker in the postseason. Timely hitting will help also.

  • http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse

    Oliver’s ERA is 2.12, but no biggie.

  • CMP

    More than any year I can remember, it looks like any team in the AL can get knocked out in the first round or make it through to the WS, especially if the Rays make it in.

  • http://twitter.com/urbainshockcor Urban

    Detroit needs to be eliminated from the postseason as soon as possible so baseball fans don’t need to see Valverde’s nonsense.

    • http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse

      You’ll see less of his nonsense when he blows his first save opp, even if they advance.

  • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

    Good stuff Stephen, but I’m not sure I would pigeonhole Al Albequerque (BTW-Great name) as a ground ball pitcher. (Sorry subs req’d)

    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb.....n-pays-off

    In relief

    These pitchers have the highest — and lowest — percentages of missed swings among relievers this season.
    Top 10 relievers Percentage Percentage
    1. Al Alburquerque 43.0%
    2. Brad Lidge 39.4%
    3. Craig Kimbrel 38.9%
    4. Jonny Venters 37.7%
    5. Kenley Jansen 37.6%
    6. Greg Holland 36.0%
    7. Vinnie Pestano 35.9%
    8. Sergio Romo 35.8%
    9. Aroldis Chapman 35.3%
    10. Tyler Clippard 34.8%

    He’s missed more bats than anyone in baseball, and by a fairly wide margin. He also walks 6 per 9. He’s their David Robertson, and as Yankee fans we all love Dave.

    • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

      “…just a ground ball pitcher”

  • Matty Ice

    Valverde with no blown saves?

    He’s due.

    #welcometothepostseason

    • Alibaba

      Will it happen before the playoffs?

  • Tom Gaffney

    Thanks Stephen. Would love to see a comprehensive look at the pens as a whole in addition to individual stats. Annoying/Helpful (however you may choose to interpret) Grammar & Spelling Police: utmost not upmost.