Stephen Rhoads, Author at River Avenue Blues

The ones to come…PECOTA-style

February 13, 2011 by Stephen Rhoads 44 Comments

Yesterday afternoon I put together a requiem for an offseason gone awry, analyzing the starting pitchers on whom the Yankees missed out on and analyzing their PECOTA projections for the 2011 season. The offseason is nearly complete now. 1 more sleep, 1 more sleep and it’s all over. In recognition of that, what follows is an examination of possible trade targets for the Yankees this summer. Some of these pitchers have been explicitly mentioned in trade rumors; others are merely speculatory subjects. All of them are intriguing trade options, and Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system can help formulate expectations for the coming year.

Francisco Liriano

2010: 191.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 9.44 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, 3.47 K/BB, 53.6 GB%.

2011 PECOTA projection: 161.9 IP, 3.75 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 8.30 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 2.53 K/BB, 46.40 GB%.

Francisco Liriano’s 2010 campaign was nothing short of dominant. It’s rare to see such a combination of strikeout-heavy stuff, excellent control and a scorched earth of groundballs. As Mike put it a few days ago, Liriano is one of the best 10 pitchers on the planet, and he showed it in 2010. PECOTA sees a lower ground-ball percentage for Liriano in 2010, below 50%, which represents the half way mark between his 2009 and 2010 campaigns. However, statistically speaking 2010 was most similar to Liriano’s 2006 season, before he was injured, and in 2006 Liriano registered a 55.3 GB%. This might suggest that when Liriano is “on” and has all his pitches working, he’ll be a groundball machine.

Oddly, Liriano had a remarkably high BABIP in 2010, .336, a figure that goes a long way towards explaining the nearly full run discrepancy between his ERA and his FIP. In 2011, PECOTA projects this number to fall slightly, to .315. As I noted yesterday though, the Twins swapped out JJ Hardy and Orlando Hudson for Alexi Casilla and Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Hudson has a record of solid defense, and Hardy is a defensive wizard, so it remains to be seen how the defensive downgrade in the middle of the infield will affect the ground-ball heavy Liriano.

Ultimately PECOTA projects Liriano to come back to earth a bit in 2011. It’s not a surprise; with regression-based projection systems it’s rare to see outlandishly good statistical lines. His projection is certainly nothing to be ashamed of though. The takeaway is that PECOTA expects Liriano to be very effective if he can stay healthy.

Chris Carpenter

2010: 235 IP, 3.22 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 6.86 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, 2.84 K/BB, 51.1 GB%

2011 PECOTA projection: 136.7 IP, 3.21 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 6.20 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, 2.61 K/BB, 50.8 GB%.

Carpenter essentially missed all of 2007 and 2008 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but has found his stride since returning. His 2010 IP total of 235 represents his second-highest mark in his career, and while he wasn’t as dominant in 2010 as he was in 2009 (2.78 FIP, 55.0 GB%) the season was still very good. PECOTA likes Carpenter’s odds to replicate his 2010 level of performance, but isn’t optimistic about his ability to make 35 starts. Injuries are difficult to predict, but it’s worth noting that Carpenter has had serious injury in the past and will be 36 years old by the time the trade deadline rolls around. Marcel is more optimistic than PECOTA, projecting him to throw 197 innings of 3.50 FIP ball.

Whether the Cardinals will make Chris Carpenter available is an open question. Given the unfolding drama of the Albert Pujols negotiations and the fierce competition they’ll face in the NL Central from the Reds and the Brewers, it could be a very tough summer for the team. It’s hard to imagine them punting on the year and moving Carpenter at the deadline, especially if they’re still trying to convince Pujols to stay, but weirder things have happened. If he’s healthy and available Carpenter would be a great fit behind CC Sabathia in the Yankee rotation.

Gavin Floyd

2010: 187.1 IP, 4.08 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 7.25 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 2.60 K/BB, 49.9 GB%

2011 PECOTA projection: 190.7 IP, 4.24 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 6.90 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, 2.25 K/BB, 45.6 GB%

This projection is a bit surprising. PECOTA isn’t bearish on Floyd’s ability to stay healthy, it’s bearish on his ability to be as good as he’s been in the past. The projection is more similar to Floyd’s 2008 line of 206 IP, 4.77 FIP, 6.32 K/9, 3.05 BB/9 and 42.1 GB%. Floyd has been better in both years since, rattling off FIPs of 3.77 and 3.46, strikeout rates of 7.60 and 7.25, and walk rates of 2.75 and 2.79. Yet the projection system doesn’t seem confident in his ability to maintain a nearly 50% groundball rate. Given his lower career averages this is understandable, but whether his increased groundball rate in 2010 was a fluke or the product of pitcher maturation or an alteration in pitch selection or location is something that warrants more study.

The Marcel projection system is slightly more bullish on Floyd, seeing 173 innings of 3.80 FIP ball with a strikeout rate of 7.18 and a walk rate of 2.86. Given that Floyd is entering what should be his prime as a pitcher, I would tend to side with Marcel here. The CAIRO system splits the difference between the two, seeing 183 IP of 4.07 FIP ball with a 6.98 K/9, a walk rate of 2.80 and a a 47.1 GB%.

Aaron Harang

2010: 111.2 IP, 5.32 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 6.61 K/9, 3.06 BB/9, 2.16 K/BB, 36.8 GB%

2011 PECOTA projection: 189 innings, 4.34 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 7.40 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, 2.79 K/BB, 39.6 GB%

Aaron Harang is the same age as Cliff Lee, but feels like he’s been in the league for far longer. Harang’s story is somewhat sad. From 2005 to 2007, he was one of the better pitchers in the National League. 11 starts into the 2008 season though Dusty Baker asked Harang to pitch 4 innings in relief in an extra-innings affair against the Padres. He was on only three-days rest, and still made his next start four days later. But something was wrong, and Harang saw a rapid decline in performance. People have long speculated that the cause of this decline was the relief appearance, and yesterday Harang finally admitted it. Via Hardball Talk:

Including his next start four days later, Harang threw a total of 239 pitches over the course of eight days. The damage was done.

“What it did,” said Harang, “is fatigue me beyond the point of recovery. I started to change my arm angle to compensate for the fatigue and that’s when my forearm started to bother me.”

Harang tried to pitch through the injury initially, but eventually spent over a month on the disabled list later that summer. He has an ugly 5.00 ERA over 379 2/3 innings since the relief appearance in question. While he feels healthy now, he’s still trying to get his mechanics back in order.

It’s possible that Harang’s struggles have been overstated. Despite a horrific win-loss record and ERA in 2008 and 2009, he still managed to keep his K/BB ratio above 2.5 and even posted a 4.14 FIP in 2009. Regardless, Harang is no longer at risk of getting manhandled by Dusty Baker, having signed a 1 year, $4M contract with a $5M mutual option for 2012 with the San Diego Padres. Like Jed Hoyer and the Padres’ front office, PECOTA is a buyer. The system doesn’t see him fully regaining his past form, but it’s certainly not far off. After consecutive seasons of having a BABIP over .330, PECOTA projects it to drop to .311; it also sees him regaining his strikeout stuff and exhibiting good control. If he can regain his past mechanics and stay healthy, PETCO could be a great landing spot for this fly ball pitcher. He’s no Liriano, but he’s cheap and could prove to be a surprisingly big name at the trade deadline this summer.

Honorable Mentions

Johan Santana

Discussed in great detail here and here, Santana has a fantastic projection from PECOTA. Unfortunately PECOTA doesn’t know about his shoulder injury. This one’s on hold.

2010: 199 IP, 2.98 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 6.51 K/9, 2.49 BB/9, 2.62 K/BB, 34.5 GB%

2011 PECOTA projection: 210.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 7.20 K/9, 2.60 BB/9, 2.81 K/BB, 41.3 GB%.

Hiroki Kuroda

2010: 196.1 IP, 3.39 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 7.29 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 3.31 K/BB, 51.1 GB%.

2011 PECOTA projection: 171.3 IP, 3.47 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 6.10 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 2.72 K/BB, 50.1 GB%.

Analyzed here yesterday, Kuroda would be a fantastic trade target for the Yankees should the Dodgers decide to make him available this summer. Unlike Santana, he’s relatively cheap, the commitment is short and he gets tons of groundballs.

The best part about having an incomplete rotation is that it keeps things interesting. This spring fans will get to see the battle for the fourth and fifth starter position play out between veterans like Garcia and Colon and youngsters like Warren and Nova. Hopefully one or two can emerge as a viable option, allowing the Yankees to be patient this year and let the trade market develop. There may be good candidates on the market after all.

The ones that got away…PECOTA-style

February 12, 2011 by Stephen Rhoads 36 Comments

The final stage of grieving is acceptance. With pitchers and catchers a mere two sleeps away, it’s time to look back on the starting pitchers who eluded the grasp of Brian Cashman and the New York Yankees and look forward to what 2011 holds for them. With the aid of Baseball Prospectus’ “deadly accurate” PECOTA projection system we can attempt to formulate an expectation for the players that will be donning the duds of other inferior teams in 2011. The list includes five names. The Yankees have been tied to all of them in varying degrees of interest: explicit interest, media-driven interest, and the wishful thinking of fans, or “should have”-interest. We’ll start with the most painful one of all.

Cliff Lee, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies

2010: 212.1 IP, 3.18 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 7.84 K/9, 0.76 BB/9, 10.28 K/BB, 41.9 GB%.

2011 PECOTA projection: 211 IP, 3.17 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 6.80 K/9, 1.60 BB/9, 4.18 K/BB, 44.2 GB%.

As is no surprise, the crown jewel of the offseason and the one for whom I have no end of hatred in my heart now grades out quite favorably by PECOTA’s standards. The high innings pitched total must be reassuring to Philly fans who have any degree of concern over his past back and oblique injury and his general advancement in age (he turns 33 this summer): 211 innings pitched is the 8th highest projected total in the PECOTA system for starting pitchers. PECOTA is seeing a regression in his strike out rate closer to his career average of 6.93 despite the fact that he’s moving to the National League. It’s also seeing an increase in his walk rate, hardly a surprise given how low it was in 2010. Despite the fact that his projected walk rate of 1.60 BB/9 is nearly a full batter higher per nine innings, this mark would have been fourth-best in baseball in 2010. Regression in his strikeout and walk rates means that his historic K/BB ratio should come back to earth a bit in 2011; again though a 4.18 K/BB would have ranked third-best in baseball. It’s unlikely that Lee can replicate his virtually unprecedented strikeout to walk ratio in 2011, but he still projects to be one of the best pitchers in the game. I hate you, Cliff.

Hiroki Kuroda, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

2010: 196.1 IP, 3.39 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 7.29 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 3.31 K/BB, 51.1 GB%.

2011 PECOTA projection: 171.3 IP, 3.47 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 6.10 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 2.72 K/BB, 50.1 GB%.

Including Kuroda in this group of pitchers is slightly misleading. He signed with Los Angeles during the exclusive negotiating window after the World Series; teams like the Yankees never had a real shot at inking him. Regardless, Kuroda is also projected to put together a very good 2011 season. PECOTA expects a decrease in his strikeout rate from his 2010 mark, but projects an identical walk rate and nearly identical ground-ball percentage.

Last summer in a piece entitled “Bring me Kuroda!” at The Yankee U I argued that the struggles of Burnett and Vazquez should lead the Yankees to try to acquire Kuroda for the stretch run and the playoffs. He possess decent strikeout stuff, but also keeps the ball on the ground like few other pitchers. The Yankees passed on him at the time, and weren’t able to show any interest this offseason. It wouldn’t be wise to expect Kuroda to replicate a sub-3.50 FIP in the AL East. However, Kuroda is one of the more unknown and underrated pitchers in baseball. His 4.0 fWAR in 2010 represents value equivalent to bigger and flashier names like Mat Latos, Tommy Hanson, Ricky Romero and even Matt Cain. It’s water under the bridge now that Kuroda signed with Los Angeles for 1 year and $12.5M, but he’s a name to watch this season, especially if the Dodgers fall out of contention this summer.

(AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

Shaun Marcum, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

2010: 195 IP, 3.64 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 7.60 K/9, 1.98 BB/9, 3.84 K/BB, 38.4 GB%.

2011 PECOTA projection: 134.7 IP, 3.88 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 7.60 K/9, 2.60 BB/9, 2.90 K/BB, 42.3 GB%.

Going into the 2010 season it was hard to ancitipate what Shaun Marcum would bring to the the table for the rebuilding Blue Jays. Marcum missed the end of the 2008 season and most of the 2009 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but was nevertheless named the Opening Day starter after the team dealt ace Roy Halladay to the Phillies. Marcum responded with a valiant effort on the year, giving the Jays nearly 200 innings of 3.74 FIP ball, and the Jays thanked him for his efforts by promptly sending him to Milwaukee for Brett Lawrie.

PECOTA isn’t particularly optimistic about Marcum in 2011. Performance-wise it expects him to maintain his strikeout stuff but lose some of the control he exhibited in 2010. More notably though it doesn’t see him logging more than 135 innings. For what it’s worth, Marcel projects a similar line for Marcum: 158 innings of 3.94 FIP ball with a 7.35 K/9 and a 2.45 BB/9. The Brewers have gone all in for 2011, acquiring Zack Greinke and Marcum to complement budding ace Yovani Gallardo in an attempt to win now. Prince Fielder is scheduled to hit free agency after this season, and Greinke is only under contract for one year after that. Whether the Brewers are able to outperform the Reds and the Cardinals and return to the playoffs will hinge partly on whether Marcum can outperform these low IP projections and stay healthy this season.

Maybe next year, Carl. (AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

Carl Pavano, RHP, Minnesota Twins

2010: 221 IP, 3.75 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 4.76 K/9, 1.51 BB/9, 3.16 K/BB, 51.2 GB%.

2011 PECOTA projection: 102.7 IP, 4.22 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 5.20 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, 2.68 K/BB, 47.1 GB%.

As painful as it is to include Pavano’s name in a list like this, the fact remains that the Yankees pursued him this offseason, going so far as to discuss a sign-and-trade with the Diamondbacks for the right-hander. Pavano profiles somewhat similarly to Kuroda by featuring a low walk rate and inducing tons of ground balls. Pavano still had a very good 2010 campaign, and the Twins brought him back on a two year deal worth roughly $16M.

PECOTA isn’t optimistic about Pavano’s ability to stay healthy. Join the club, PECOTA. Join the club. It also sees Pavano registering a relatively higher strikeout rate and ground-ball rate in 2011. There are limits to what projection systems can see, though, and this is a good example. Fangraphs’ Dave Allen profiled Pavano a few weeks ago, noting that the increase in Pavano’s ground-ball rate was probably related to the increase in ground balls that Pavano was getting on his slider, going from 37.5 GB% to nearly 60% on the pitch. This is based on Pavano locating his slider further low and away, and if he continues to pitch in this manner he may remain a heavy groundball and light strikeout pitcher in 2011. However, he may not receive the level of infield defense to which he’s become accustomed, given the departures of JJ Hardy and Orlando Hudson. It’s possible that some of those groundballs will find their way through the infield with greater frequency in 2011.

The only known photo of Greinke talking to the media. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)

Zack Greinke, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

2010: 220 IP, 4.17 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 7.40 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 46.0 GB%.

2011 PECOTA projection: 179 IP, 3.52 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 8.30 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, 44.0 GB%.

It isn’t surprising that Zack Greinke wasn’t able to replicate his insane 2009 level of performance in 2010, but he still managed to pitch very well. In 2011 PECOTA is essentially splitting the difference between his 2009 and 2010 campaigns. He’s projected to strike out more than 2010, but also walk more than he did in both 2009 and 2010. It also sees his slight increase in ground-balls largely holding in 2011. If the Brewers are able to get this level of performance alongside Yovani Gallardo they ought to contend for the NL Central this year.

The Yankees considered trading for Greinke this offseason, and even went so far as to discuss trade proposals with the Royals. The Royals asked the Yankees for Jesus Montero and Eduardo Nunez, and informed the Yankees that Greinke was willing to waive his no-trade clause to come to New York. The Yankees declined. Oddly, the reason wasn’t the asking price in prospects. As Craig Calcaterra and others reported, the Yankees didn’t believe that Greinke was a good fit for New York. If the Brewers are able to reach the playoffs in 2011, it will be very interesting to see how Greinke performs under pressure.

What’s done is done. The Yankees tried their best to bolster their rotation this offseason, but for a plethora of reasons were unable to land their desired targets. Hope springs eternal, though, and tomorrow we’ll take a look at some potential trade targets and their PECOTA projections.

Weighing Wade LeBlanc

February 6, 2011 by Stephen Rhoads 24 Comments

On Friday morning, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Yankees had considered a bevy of left-handed trade targets. The list ranged from ugly (Joe Saunders and Scott Kazmir) to mildly intriguing (Wade LeBlanc, Clayton Richard and Gio Gonzalez). Yesterday I examined Clayton Richard; today the target is Richard’s teammate Wade LeBlanc.

Wade LeBlanc has always been a Padre, drafted in the second round of the 2006 draft out of the University of Alabama. Like Clayton Richard, LeBlanc spent a half season in A ball after being drafted, averaging an ERA of 3.02, a strikeout rate of 7.9/9 and a walk rate of 2.7/9. The following year he opened at High A Lake Elsinore. Over 92 innings he put together a very impressive stat line: 2.64 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 5.29 K/BB ratio. The Padres responded by moving him to Double A, where his ERA bumped up to 3.45 over 57.1 innings. His strikeout rate stayed high (8.6/9), but his walk rate was elevated slightly to 3.0 BB/9. All told, LeBlanc’s first full season as a minor league starter was very successful.

In 2008 LeBlanc was promoted to AAA and saw a divergence of results and peripherals. On one hand, his ERA ballooned to 5.32 over 138.2 innings. However, LeBlanc also managed to bolster his strikeout rate to 9.02/9 and maintain a very good walk rate of 2.73 BB/9. The obvious culprit to explain his high ERA is his BABIP, but his mark was only .304. Perhaps a below average strand rate (64.3%) was part of the reason. Regardless, the Padres promoted LeBlanc to the bigs as a September callup and he made five starts before the end of the year. The results weren’t pretty, but LeBlanc was really just getting his feet wet for the first time.

The following year LeBlanc returned to AAA. He posted a 3.87 ERA over 121 innings, but his strike rate was far lower than it was in 2008 at 7.07 K/9, but he did keep his walk rate low at 2.31 BB/9. LeBlanc saw some midseason action at the MLB level, but it wasn’t until September again of that year that he got consistent time in the Padres’ rotation. He put together a total of 46.1 innings of 3.85 ERA ball, and finished the year strong with a 7 inning, 2 hit, 1 walk, 0 run and 8 strikeout performance against the San Francisco Giants.

Last year LeBlanc spent all but 10 innings in the Padres’ rotation, hurling 146 innings of 4.25 ERA ball in 25 starts. Yet this doesn’t tell the whole story: LeBlanc’s FIP was 4.80 and his peripherals were worse than his minor league pedigree: 6.78 K/9, 3.14 BB/9. This performance was worth precisely 0.0 fWAR for the Padres; fortunately for them, he was making close to the league minimum.

LeBlanc is a soft-tossing lefty. Over the course of his career his fastball has averaged 86.1 mph. In 2010 this mark was 86.6 mph, good for 8th slowest amongst pitchers with at least 140 innings on the year. LeBlanc’s ability to succeed at the major league level is no doubt related to his quality changeup, a pitch he threw over 27% of the time in 2010. He does throw a cutter and a curveball with less regularity, but his changeup is obviously his best pitch. According to Texas Leagers, he got a swing and a miss on 17.7% of his changeups, the highest mark of all his pitches.

Any discussion of Wade LeBlanc would be incomplete if it did not examine his drastic home/away splits, data which will no doubt put the nail in the coffin of his desirability as a trade target for most Yankees fans. In his career, he’s made 18 starts in Petco and has a K/BB ratio of 2.24. Opponents OPS .695 against him. He’s made 22 starts away from Petco, and the numbers are drastically different: a 1.47 K/BB ratio and an incredible 0.922 OPS against. In Petco, Wade LeBlanc turns opponents into a bunch of Jorge Cantus and Yuniesky Betancourts. Away from Petco, opponents turn into a bunch of Matt Hollidays and Jayson Werths. It is a very drastic difference, and while it is a relatively small sample of data it is nevertheless a red flag.

Like with Clayton Richard, the Padres have no particular reason to part with Wade LeBlanc unless the Yankees were to offer them something of value. LeBlanc isn’t eligible for arbitration until the 2013 season, and is under team control through the 2016 year. He’s abundantly cheap, and a good back-end option in the rotation for the Padres. For the Yankees LeBlanc may have more strikeout upside than Richards, but his fly-ball tendencies and soft-tossing ways make him a tentative fit. There seems to be no good reason to give up any premium prospect to acquire LeBlanc from the Padres, and without quality in return the Padres seem likely to just hang on to him. Count this another trade target DOA.

Considering Clayton Richard

February 5, 2011 by Stephen Rhoads 33 Comments

Now that Andy Pettitte has made his retirement official, the Yankees are going to be linked with starting pitcher free agents and trade targets from now until conceivably the end of August. For rumor-junkies this is the only pleasant thing about the Yankee rotation being the baseball version of Two and a Half Men. On Friday morning, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Yankees had considered a bevy of left-handed trade targets. The list ranged from ugly (Joe Saunders and Scott Kazmir) to mildly intriguing (Wade LeBlanc, Clayton Richard and Gio Gonzalez). We’ll start with Richard.

Clayton Richard was an eighth-round pick by the White Sox in the 2005 draft. After spending a half-season in A ball he spent his first full season in 2006 by splitting time between Low A and High A. The results were modest: he threw 119 innings of 3.85 ERA ball with a low strikeout rate (5.0/9) and an average walk rate (2.6/9). The most interesting aspect to his 06 season was how hittable he was, as he yielded over 11 hits per nine innings. In 2007 he repeated his season in High A ball. He lowered his ERA slightly to 3.63 and his hit rate to 8.9/9. However, his strikeout rate stayed stuck in the Joe Saunders zone (5.0/9) and his walk rate actually got worse, rising to 3.3/9. The best takeaway from the season was his high innings total, 161.1 innings.

In 2008 Richard was promoted to AA and responded positively. The best sign was improved control, and as he lowered his rate to 1.7 BB/9. His hit rate again dropped, but this might be related to an unusually low BABIP of .238. Richard was promoted midseason to AAA and found the environment to his liking. Here he was able to drop his walk rate again, to a microscopic 0.8 BB/9, while while bumping his strikeout rate to 6.8/9. It was a small sample (44 innings), and Richard was 24 years old at the time, but his 2.45 ERA and 8.25 K/BB ratio were impressive nonetheless.

The White Sox promoted Richard to the major league team in 2008 and the results were very similar to his 2006 season in A ball: very hittable (11.5 H/9) with modest peripherals (5.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9). Richard appeared three times in relief and started eight times, and ended the year with an ERA of 6.04 and a FIP of 4.07. Richard only pitched 15 innings more than he had in 2007, but it’s still at least possible that he was fatigued after a long season.

2009 represented Richard’s first full-season major league debut, with mixed results. He began the season pitching out the bullpen for the White Sox. He totaled 16 innings in 12 appearances, striking out 10 and walking 5, good for a 4.41 FIP. On May 12 he transitioned to the rotation and got pretty similar results: 72 innings of 4.73 ERA ball, a 6.99 K/9 and a 3.99 BB/9. Richard was then traded to the Padres as a part of the Jake Peavy deal, and found the confines of Petco Park to be a bit more hospitable. He pitched 64 innings of 4.08 ERA ball with 48 strikeouts and 38 walks. If you remove two blowups on August 27 against the Braves and September 7 against the Giants (combined 6.1 innings and 12 ER), the numbers are even better: 65.1 innings of 3.58 ERA ball with a 6.5 K/9 and a 5.2 BB/9. It’s worth noting though that the lion’s share of these starts came in September, meaning that the opposing lineups may not have been their strongest. It also shows that even when getting decent results, Richard was still struggling with control. His walk rate was simply too high.

Richard entered 2010 with a spot in the rotation for the rebuilding San Diego Padres. By conventional measures his season was a success: he went 14-9 with a 3.75 ERA. There were plenty of positive signs about Richard’s year: he pitched over 200 innings for the first time in his career, and he managed to keep his strikeout rate relatively high by his standards (6.8) while attempting to keep the walks at bay (3.5 BB/9). His year was worth 2.3 fWAR to the Padres.

Richard is a big lefty, standing in a 6’5″ and 240 pounds. He generates a decent amount of groundballs but it would be inaccurate to describe him as a groundball artist. He features a fastball in the low-90s and leans on it heavily, mixing in sliders and changeups as his two complementary offspeed pitches and occasionally dropping a show-me curveball. Richard used to pitch with a low 3/4 arm angle when he was with the White Sox. At some point he altered it and now pitches more over the top, but it’s difficult to locate some hard information on when exactly he made the change, which would enable us to track whether the alteration resulted in an improvement in results. For what it’s worth, Keith Law was more bullish on Richard now that he made the change.

All said, Richard’s greatest asset isn’t the fact that he throws left-handed, gets a fair amount of groundballs and has an acceptable K/BB ratio. His greatest asset is his cost. Richard will make a little over $420,000 in 2011, and should see a bump into the $1-2M range in 2012, meaning that he won’t be “expensive” for the Padres until 2013 at the earliest. For this reason, it seems unlikely that San Diego would be interested in moving him. The Padres are in the midst of rebuilding, having dealt Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox for Pedro Clemens and other prospects, kicking the contention can down the road several years. If they were to deal Richard now they’d probably be looking for prospects who could make an impact in 2012 or 2013.

The easiest matches for the Yankees in the trade market are going to be with teams looking to cut cost. While Richard would be useful as a back of the rotation option for the Yankees, he has good value to the Padres for the next three years. A match between the two teams seems unlikely. Richard might be attractive if the Padres were giving him away in a salary dump, but the idea of giving up decent prospects in return for him is simply unappealing. Now if the Padres want to discuss Mat Latos, that’s a different story.

Reevaluating Johan Santana: part 2 of 2

January 30, 2011 by Stephen Rhoads 18 Comments

This is part 2 of my attempt to reevaluate Johan Santana and his desirability as a trade target for the Yankees this summer. Yesterday we looked at the nature of Santana’s injury, and saw some speculation on when he might be back to full strength. I also noted that his decline in performance from his Minnesota years may obscure the fact that he’s still a very valuable pitcher, provided that he’s healthy. Today we’re going to examine Santana’s contract and try to handicap what a trade might look like.

The dollar bills

When the Mets acquired Santana from Twins in February of 2008, they immediately inked him to a long-term extension which replaced the final year of his contract. His new contract is a 6 year deal worth $137.5 million with a club option of $25M for 2014 ($5M buyout).The contract is backloaded, a present from Omar to Sandy, meaning that the annual salaries increase as the deal progresses. It’s often said that Santana has 4 years and $80 million left on his contract. It’s not so simple.

In 2011, Santana will make $22.5M. In 2012 his salary escalates to $24M and then to $25.5M in the final year of the deal in 2013. As mentioned, the team has a $25M club option ($5M buyout) for 2014. It’s worth noting that this club option transforms into a player option if Santana reaches certain milestones, which you can read about here. To my best understanding, Santana would have to win the Cy Young in 2012 or 2013, or finish second or third in Cy Young voting in both 2012 and 2013, or be on the active roster for the final 30 days of the 2013 season while pitching 215 innings in 2013 or a combined 420 innings between 2012 and 2013. Got that? Suffice it to say, if Santana earns his player option for 2014 it will mean that his 2012 and 2013 seasons were productive and valuable for his club. We will operate on the assumption that he does not earn his option though, since this would represent the more cautious scenario for the acquiring team.

Assuming the option is declined, this means that Santana is due $77M between now and the end of the contract. However, it’s extremely unlikely that Santana is dealt any time soon, meaning that by the time he goes on the trade market in July or August of 2011, roughly half of his 2011 salary should be paid out. The Mets don’t provide a convenient contract amortization schedule for us, so we’ll ballpark it and say that Santana will be due $10M in 2011 by the time he hits the market. This reduces the total contractual obligation of the acquiring team to $67M.

Again though, it’s not so simple. Santana’s contract defers $5M of the payout annually, a true Mets specialty (see: Bonilla, Bobby). Santana receives $5M of his annual salary seven years after the season in which the salary is earned at 1.25% compound interest. Say what you want about Omar Minaya, and you can say plenty, but getting a player to defer roughly a quarter of his annual salary for minimal interest is a nice touch. If we assume that the Mets defer $5M of the contract at the beginning of the year, this would reduce Santana’s 2011 salary to $17.5M, meaning that the total remaining obligation in 2011 by the time he’s dealt would be roughly $8M. In 2012 the total salary obligation would be $19M and $20.5M in 2013. Depending on how you slice it (and it’s unclear whether the team treats the deferred compensation as a future liability with no bearing on current cash flow or amortizes it over the course of the year in which the salary is earned, I’m guessing the former), the acquiring team would be on the hook for roughly $47.5M during the life of the contract and then $5M in both 2019 and 2020. The common refrain that Santana is due $80M over 4 years is enough to make one blanch. However, when the club option and the deferred compensation are factored in, the total obligation is far more team-friendly.

The trade

It seems clear that the Mets won’t contend in 2011. The Braves and the Marlins have put together decent clubs, the Phillies are an evil four-headed monster, and the Nationals’ acquisition of Tom Gorzelanny essentially ensures them the divisional crown (I kid). The Mets’ focus ought to be on 2012 and beyond. They have a fair amount of money coming off the books after 2011 in Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Oliver Perez and Francisco Rodriguez, but one has to imagine they’ll at least attempt to keep Reyes long-term.

The Mets may be looking to cut payroll now not only in recognition that their contention window is at least 2012, but also because of the team’s rather precarious situation. Yesterday Joel Sherman reported that the Wilpons may be interested in selling a non-controlling stake in the team in order to raise money. As Sherman noted, the obvious implication is that the Madoff scandal has handicapped them in a far more significant manner than they’ve let on. Indeed, part of the reason for seeking a strategic partner is the lawsuit attempting to recover money from the Madoff scheme. There was speculation yesterday that the trustee for the Madoff victims could be seeking as much as one billion dollars from Fred Wilpon. Wilpon’s statement admitted that the team desired to raise cash in response to this:

“To address the air of uncertainty created by this lawsuit, and to provide additional assurance that the New York Mets will continue to have the necessary resources to fully compete and win, we are looking at a number of potential options including the addition of one or more strategic partners”.

As Craig Calcaterra noted, though, it may not be possible for the Wilpons to keep a controlling stake in the team:

Even if these numbers are not accurate, however, the key point is clear: the Wilpons’ current financial situation is going to be directly impacted by how much the government is seeking in its clawback lawsuit. If it’s anything close to figure Hubbuch is reporting, they will have to sell way more than a minority share in the Mets. Indeed, they’ll likely have to sell the whole team.

Bringing it back to Santana, it may be the case that the Mets could seek to unload his expensive contract in 2011, both as a way of shoring up their annual cash flow and for preparation for 2012 and 2013. If so, the trade of Roy Oswalt from the Astros to the Phillies last summer may serve as a model. Last July the the Phillies sent J.A. Happ and two prospects to the Astros in exchange for Oswalt. Oswalt had $23M left on his contract and the Astros agreed to pick up nearly half of it, $11M. Oswalt did not demand that the Phillies pick up his 2012 option for $16M; instead, if either Oswalt or the Phillies decline his 2012 option, he will receive $2M.

The Mets could consider something similar, picking up some of Santana’s salary and receiving prospects from the acquiring team in return. If the Mets were unable or unwilling to pay Santana’s salary then the cost in prospects would certainly be less. Obviously there are a lot of moving parts, but the primary concern is Santana’s health. If he doesn’t return to full strength then this is all moot. If he does, though, then it wouldn’t be completely surprising to see them try to unload his contract late this summer. Should the Yankees kick the tires and consider Santana again? Would the Mets be willing to do an Oswalt-like deal for him? Just when you thought you were out, just when you thought the Yankees’ saga with Santana was finally over..they pull you back in.

Reevaluating Johan Santana: part 1 of 2

January 29, 2011 by Stephen Rhoads 42 Comments

By now it is nearly impossible to discuss the Yankees’ search for starting pitching without saying something like, “It’s no secret that the Yankees need starting pitching help”. It’s all been said. Even if Andy Pettitte postpones his date with retirement another year and returns for the 2011 campaign it’s likely that the team could still be looking for help on the trade market this summer. Ivan Nova is a fine fifth starter option, but it would really be nice if he was the sixth starter, an option in case of injury or a terrible outbreak of Bad A.J. The problem is that the trade market is a bit weak. There’s no Cliff Lee on the market this summer. Wandy Rodriguez looked like a decent target, but the Astros just extended him for three years. Gavin Floyd and Chris Carpenter could be very good options, but a lot needs to happen for these teams to put the players on the market. Plan B might be patience, but there’s a fair amount of contingency contained therein.

One trade option is Johan Santana. Mike addressed the possibility of acquiring Santana in this mailbag piece several weeks ago, outlining all the reasons why the Yankees shouldn’t attempt to acquire Santana: he’s coming off major shoulder surgery, his performance is in decline, and he’s expensive. All of these things are true, and yet I’m going to attempt a possibly quixotic reexamination of his desirability. This will be a two part piece. Today we will examine the nature of his injury and his perceived decline over the past 3 years and tomorrow we’ll look at his contract status and try to evaluate whether he makes sense for the Yankees as a trade target. It sounds crazy, and it’s going to take a decent amount of time to make the case. All good things take time though, unless we’re talking about a Chipotle burrito, so try to stick it out with me. It’s not like there’s anything better to do on a freezing weekend in January. What, you gonna watch curling?

Injury

When Johan Santana was injured late last summer it was initially reported that he had a strained pectoral. This was slightly deceiving, in that the location of the injury is not where one would expect. When you hear “strained pec”, you think about how sore you feel if you do too many bench press sets. As Will Carroll noted, the strain happened right where the muscle inserts into the humerus, just below the shoulder. You can see the picture here. Despite initial good news out the Mets camp, which cruelly raised the hopes of Mets fans, it turned out that Santana’s injury was far more serious. Santana had torn the anterior capsule in his left shoulder and required surgery to repair it. The injury is more rare than a Tommy John surgery, and Carroll went to sources to get more information about the actual nature of the injury:

The anterior capsule is the front lining of the shoulder joint which then attaches to the labrum and then to the bone. The capsule is torn with the labrum often with an acute traumatic shoulder dislocation. However, in baseball with repetitive throwing the anterior capsule can just gradually stretch out and eventually give a thrower pain and a feeling of weakness and a velocity loss. This repetitive microscopic tearing and stretching injury ultimately is what the thrower may describe as a “dead arm” The type of surgery performed is very similar to the open surgery pioneered by Dr. Frank Jobe that was performed on Orel Hersheiser in the ’80s, but now with advances the same surgery can be done arthroscopically. However, the healing concepts are the same and therefore the rehabilitation can be very long to get back to high level throwing. Certainly 6-9 months is not unreasonable.

In order to repair this injury, the surgeon usually attempts to repair the ligaments arthoscopically. This was Dr. David Altchek’s goal with Santana, but he found that the tear was difficult to reach with an arthoscope and had to make an incision in the shoulder in order to repair it. This is obviously a less desirable method because it causes scar tissue, which can affect range of motion and lengthen the time of rehabilitation. As such, Santana may not return to the majors until the All-Star Break in 2011. The final word from Carroll:

Santana will immediately begin rehab which is normally tagged at 20-28 weeks with an overlap of a throwing program towards the end. There’s no new info on whether there was anything found during the procedure that would change the outlook or prognosis. The first real sign we’ll get is likely to be when pitchers and catchers report to Port St. Lucie in February.

There is some speculation that Santana would not be fully recovered until well after he actually returns to the majors. Dr. Craig Levitz speculated that it would actually take 3 months, or 70-80 innings, after Santana’s return for him to regain his top form. He also noted that pitchers with this type of injury often return stronger than before, and that there is little risk of recurrence. As Levitz said, “Over all there is not a lot of damage to the shoulder with this injury…Once they close the hole in the soft tissue, it should never be a problem again.”

Performance

Things have been different for Johan Santana since he left the American League for the National League Mets. From 2002 to 2007 he had an ERA of 2.92, striking out almost 10 batters per nine innings and walking 2.2 per nine innings. His strikeout to walk ratio was a Lee-esque 4.38. Due to a very low hit rate, Santana’s WHIP hovered around 1.00. For good reason he was considered one of the preeminent pitchers in all of baseball. Contrary to expectations, Santana’s strikeout rate has dipped about two batters per nine innings since joining the Mets, and his walk rate has increased ever-so-slightly to close to 2.5. As such, he’s posted FIPs in the mid 3.50s since coming to New York, certainly respectable but not exactly the commensurate with the highest expectations fans might have had for the well-paid ace. This chart shows his performance as a Met compared to his career numbers:

Peripherals-wise, 2010 was Santana’s worst year. This is to be expected, given that he was coming off minor elbow surgery from the offseason prior and had his season cut short by the shoulder injury in September. One thing we don’t know is to what extent Santana pitched through discomfort or pain in 2010 before acknowledging his injury. We also don’t know if the gradual destruction of his shoulder ligaments was responsible for the decline in performance. The quote from Carroll’s source above seems to confirm that the pitcher will likely experience discomfort, weakness and a loss of velocity before actually needing surgery to repair the injury. It would be logical to expect a bounceback in velocity and strikeout stuff, but within any injury there is a large amount of risk and variance. It all hinges on how well Santana heals.

Despite the decline in performance, Santana was still a very valuable pitcher for the Mets in 2010. As a quick and easy comparison, his 3.5 fWAR in 199 innings in 2010 ranks similar to Shaun Marcum and Wandy Rodriguez’s performance. Over the past three years, despite an injury-shortened 2009, he’s accumulated 11.0 fWAR. This is more than Andy Pettitte, James Shields, John Lackey or Ted Lilly. If he had thrown 200 innings in 2009 it’s likely that he would register more fWAR in the past 3 years than Matt Cain, Roy Oswalt or Javier Vazquez. Of course, he didn’t throw 200 innings in 2009, so the point is moot. Regardless, Santana is still a valuable pitcher. Compare his performance data above with this data for CC Sabathia:

Sabathia and Santana both have fairly similar FIPs and ERAs, but Santana seems consistently able to outperform his FIP. They also have similar strikeout rates. Sabathia’s walk rates are slightly worse than Santana but CC generates far more groundballs than Santana, a clear boon in Yankee Stadium. Santana’s flyball tendencies play well in Citi Field but would likely be less advantageous in another venue. Sabathia’s numbers are also more impressive in the AL East. All things considered, Sabathia is a more desirable starter, but simply because Santana isn’t replicating his same level of dominance from years past doesn’t mean that he’s no longer valuable. Mid-3 FIP pitchers with good control and strikeout stuff don’t grow on trees.

Johan Santana isn’t what he once was, and he’s coming off a major injury with a long rehabilitation timeframe. There are good reasons for optimism though, reasons that don’t solely consist of fluff and happy thoughts. If Santana can pitch again like he has as a Met, he’ll have good value for his team. Of course, there’s the whole question of the contract, a question which I’ll address tomorrow morning before trying to ascertain how the trade market could firm up. See you then.

Boring is beautiful: the $180 million everyman

January 23, 2011 by Stephen Rhoads 83 Comments

On Thursday night I was fortunate enough to attend a benefit dinner at Yankee Stadium for an organization dedicated to assisting urban youth, called Street2Street. The special guest was none other than Mark Teixeira. I was not only able to meet Mark, but I also sat at his table during the dinner and got to ask him a fair amount of questions. Everything that I heard about Mark is true: he’s exceedingly polite, professional and business-like. His parents did a good job training him to look someone in the eye when they’re speaking to him. He has very good posture and he said nothing controversial, except when he told me that he thought Joba belonged in the bullpen. Afterwards I told my dad that I can see why writers describe him as bland or robotic, although I found nothing wrong with it. In a lot of ways he was surprisingly normal and calm. He talked about his life in Connecticut, his workout schedule, and his youngest son teething. He asked people at the table questions about their lives. He was like a dinner guest trying to be polite. So why did it strike me as so abnormal?

The reason is because I expect sports superstars to be abnormal. Everything about their lives is different, starting with the way they’re brought up. Look at LeBron James. How young was he when people started treating him differently, deferring to him, trying to please him or curry favor? How young was he when he first realized that people were trying to befriend him to get something from him, rather than because they liked his personality? What was it like for him, or any other sports superstar, to have teachers, friends, coaches and peers cater to him? Before LeBron James turned eighteen years old he was accustomed to being treated like a god, and then the money started rolling in and the real privileges of being truly elite at something started manifesting themselves. How can you expect someone like LeBron to be self-aware and to have empathy for others when he’s been taught to be single-mindedly self-centered his entire life? In retrospect, The Decision seems perfectly consummate with what we’d expect from someone with his background. The fake Twitter account LeBron James’ Ego is popular because it reminds us of what we think is the real LeBron James.

Compared to some other recent star missteps, LeBron’s Decision looks tame. Brett Favre refuses to stay out of the news, whether it’s because of a text messaging scandal with a masseuse or sideline princess or because it’s time for him to retire and unretire again. Alex Rodriguez got caught taking home a stripper in Toronto despite a wife and children at home in New York. Both Kobe Bryant and Ben Roethlisberger were accused of rape. Michael Jordan had an alleged gambling problem. Tiger Woods and his mistresses dominated the front pages of New York newspapers for literally weeks on end. These are people who have reached the upper eschelon of the sports world, and their lives are frequently marked by chaos and pain. This isn’t about criticism or passing judgment, and hopefully the comments don’t turn into a flame war about who did what or why so-and-so’s alleged offenses weren’t as bad as people think. The point is not to point a finger at professional athletes; the point is to try to understand why they do the things they do. When you compare your personal formative years with Tiger Woods, when you compare your checking account with Kobe Bryant, and when you think about the insane world of opportunity these guys have in front of them on a daily basis, it’s not that hard to figure out.

This is why I expected a fundamental difference of orientation to arise with Mark at dinner. I wouldn’t have been surprised if he affected a strong storytelling persona, or an arrogant diffidence. It was surprising then to see Mark answering questions like he’s just as nervous as the people around the table and asking questions because he doesn’t want there to be awkward silence. It was surprising to hear Mark ask a tablemate about a planned vacation. I was expecting outsized, overgrown and larger than life. Physically he’s larger than life – he’s built like a brick house and ate his entree in what seemed like four bites – but he seemed most comfortable when he was talking about his son teething.

Tex is frequently described as bland. Maybe it’s simply that he was fortunate enough to go through life without getting stunted and still has his head on straight. He is who he is, he’s not a caricature, a goon or someone playing a part. Maybe that’s boring, and maybe that doesn’t translate into good copy or a witty back page headline. But when you consider the alternatives, maybe being abundantly normal is just flat refreshing.