River Avenue Blues

Scouting the Trade Market: Under-the-Radar Pitching Targets

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Hoffman. (Matthew Stockman/Getty)

At some point between now and the July 31st trade deadline, the Yankees are going to trade for a starting pitcher. It is not 100% set in stone, of course, just extremely likely. Jordan Montgomery is done for the season and Masahiro Tanaka will be out several weeks, plus enough physical concerns exit with Tanaka and CC Sabathia that adding depth to get through the 162-game season makes sense.

The trade deadline is less than seven weeks away now, and while many players will become available between now and then, we already have an idea who the top trade candidates will be. Cole Hamels, J.A. Happ, Tyson Ross, maybe Michael Fulmer, maybe Chris Archer. There’s a case to be made for acquiring each of those guys and a case to be made for staying away. They’re all should be available though.

We’ve been talking about those guys so much that I’m sick of hearing about them. I’m more interested in potential surprise trade candidates. The guys who become available that no one really had on their radar. The Tommy Kahnle pickup, though part of a larger trade, kinda came out of nowhere. Trying to come up with surprise trade candidates is never easy, though after some digging around, I think I’ve identified three possibilities. Let’s get to ’em.

The Project Pitcher: RHP Tyler Glasnow, Pirates

Background: The soon-to-be 25-year-old Glasnow is a former top prospect who spent several years in the top 25 of Baseball America’s annual top 100 list. Walks have always been an issue though, and in spot start duty from 2016-17, he had a 6.75 ERA (5.74 FIP) with 19.5% strikeouts and 13.4% walks in 85.1 innings. This season Glasnow has a 4.89 ERA (3.56 FIP) with 29.4% strikeouts, 11.8% walks, and 51.1% grounders in 35 innings, all in long relief.

Breakdown: Glasnow is a Yankees-sized pitcher (6-foot-8 and 220 lbs.) and he has simplified things out of the bullpen this year, relying mostly on his mid-to-upper-90s fastball and hard 80-ish mph curveball. During his days as a starter he also threw an upper-80s changeup and tinkered with a slider. Glasnow has shown much better than league average spin rates with his fastball (2,419 rpm vs. 2,263 rpm) and curveball (2,825 rpm vs. 2,507 pm). That is an elite curveball spin rate on par with Justin Verlander’s (2,837 rpm) and Charlie Morton’s (2,931 rpm).

Reasons To Trade For Him: The raw stuff is excellent — that’s why Glasnow was a top prospect for such a long time — and we’re talking about a 24-year-old kid under team control through 2023. The Yankees love physically huge power pitchers and Glasnow fits that profile perfectly. He misses bats, he gets grounders, and an argument can be made you’d be buying low on him right now. Would the Pirates trade him? Who knows. They haven’t exactly knocked it out of the park with their decision-making lately.

Reasons To Stay Away: Glasnow’s mechanics and lack of control are real problems. There’s some Dellin Betances in him. He’s big, his delivery can fall out of whack, and finding the strike zone isn’t always easy. Even during his prospect days, there was some thought Glasnow would fit best in the bullpen, where he could work in shorter stints and not have to worry about repeating his delivery 100 times a game. Those are really the only reasons to stay away. The stuff is good and he’s been healthy throughout his career. The mechanics and control make Glasnow a project, potentially a difficult one.

The Post-Hype Pitcher: RHP Jeff Hoffman, Rockies

Background: The Blue Jays drafted Hoffman, a semi-local kid from Albany, with the ninth overall pick in the 2014 draft even though he had Tommy John surgery a few weeks earlier. They shipped him to the Rockies as the headliner in the Troy Tulowitzki deal in 2015. Hoffman, 25, has been an up-and-down spot starter the last few years, pitching to a 5.65 ERA (5.15 FIP) with 17.7% strikeouts and 9.7% walks in 130.2 innings. There is of course some Coors Field stink in there — Hoffman has a career 6.97 ERA (5.41 FIP) at home and 4.04 ERA (4.76 FIP) on the road.

Breakdown: Hoffman was not the ninth overall pick despite Tommy John surgery by accident. He’s a power pitcher with a deep arsenal. His fastball sits mid-90s, his slider and changeup are mid-80s offerings, and he has an upper-70s curveball as well. If you’re into such things, the scouting report at FanGraphs says the fastball, slider, and curveball all have above-average potential with the changeup being a potential average fourth pitch. Last season, during his only extended big league stint, Hoffman showed above-average spin rates with his fastball (2,385 rpm vs. 2,263 rpm), his curveball (2,687 rpm vs. 2,507 rpm), and his slider (2,706 rpm vs. 2,398 rpm).

Reasons To Trade For Him: The Rockies have more quality young pitching right now than they’ve ever had at any point in franchise history. Hoffman has been struck in Triple-A most of the season — he was recently called up for long relief duty — and, to me, he’s a great post-hype target. By that I mean a talented young player who was once a top prospect, but has since kinda faded out of the spotlight. Think the pitcher version of Didi Gregorius or Aaron Hicks.

Hoffman clearly has a lot going for him given his two quality breaking balls and high-octane heater. He hasn’t had much time in the big leagues, but he strikes me as someone who could really benefit from the Yankees’ anti-fastball philosophy. Look at Hoffman’s pitch selection during his 2016-17 MLB stints:

The curveball and slider (and, to a lesser degree, the changeup) are good pitches. Throw them! I know Hoffman throws hard, but approaching 70% fastballs from 2016-17? Seems a little high given his secondary pitches. Maybe that’s a Coors Field thing. The breaking balls didn’t behave properly in the thin mountain air and Hoffman leaned on his fastball. Either way, a 25-year-old with a good four-pitch mix who is under team control through 2023 seems like an obvious trade target to me, assuming the Rockies are actually open to dealing him.

Reasons To Stay Away: The Tommy John surgery, for one. There’s an injury history here. The larger flaw is that, even at his best, Hoffman didn’t miss as many bats as the stuff would lead you to believe. Despite a career 27.6% strikeout rate in the minors, his swing-and-miss rate has been consistently in the 9% to 10% range, which is well-below-average for a top pitching prospect. Trading for Hoffman would mean banking on a return to sea level and the anti-fastball lifestyle getting him to miss more bats and maybe get more ground balls too (career 43.8% grounders).

The Established Rental: RHP Garrett Richards, Angels

Background: At this point Richards is a known commodity. He broke out in 2014, battled injuries from 2016-17, and so far this season he has a 3.26 ERA (3.87 FIP) with 27.1% strikeouts, 11.4% walks, and 50.6% grounders in 66.1 innings. The Yankees have hammered Richards twice this year, scoring 12 runs (eight earned) in four innings in two starts. Against non-Yankees teams, the 30-year-old right-hander has a 2.31 ERA (3.64 FIP) in 62.1 innings this season.

Breakdown: Richards truly has top 1% stuff, I believe. He’s upper-90s with his four-seam and two-seam fastballs, right around 90 mph with his slider, and low-80s with his hammer curveball. Among the 101 pitchers to throw at least 1,000 pitches so far this season, Richards has the highest four-seamer spin rate (2,607 rpm), the highest two-seamer spin rate (2,549 rpm), the highest slider spin rate (2,906 rpm), and the highest curveball spin rate (3,245 rpm). Spin rate is not everything. It’s like velocity. It’s one tool in the shed. But holy crap, no pitcher in baseball combines velocity and spin like Richards.

Reasons To Trade For Him: This seems obvious enough, right? Richards has shown he’s a very good big league pitcher with high-end stuff that produces strikeouts and grounders. He’s a free agent after the season, so this is a rental situation. For Richards to actually become available, the Angels will probably have to fall out of the race before the deadline, which simply might not happen, even with Shohei Ohtani and Andrelton Simmons on the disabled list. The Halos are currently 6.5 games back in the AL West and six games back of the second wildcard spot. To me, they look good enough to hang around the race all season. If they don’t though, Richards may suddenly become a very in-demand trade candidate.

Reasons To Stay Away: The lack of success at Yankee Stadium (19 runs in 23 career innings) doesn’t scare me too much because Richards wouldn’t be facing the Yankees at Yankee Stadium anymore. The larger issue here is his injury history, which is ugly. Richards tore the patella tendon in his left knee covering first base in 2014, he tore his elbow ligament in 2016 and managed to avoid Tommy John surgery by rehabbing the ligament with an experimental stem cell procedure, and last season he missed most of the year with a biceps strain. Trade for Richards and you run the risk of him getting hurt and not contributing at all. And maybe that’s a risk worth taking. It’s not like there’s a long-term commitment here. Aside from the injuries, everything else looks pretty good. Richards can bring it.

* * *

The Yankees should — and will — consider both short and long-term rotation additions at the deadline. If there’s a rental who could help put them over the top this season, great. If there’s someone available will multiple years of control who can help them win now and later, even better. Montgomery will miss most of next season and Sabathia might not be back. There’s no such thing as too much pitching, right? The Yankees have space for rentals like Richards and long-term guys like Glasnow and Hoffman.

There are some obvious issues with the three guys in this post. One, Richards might not ever actually become available. And two, are Glasnow and Hoffman guys who could help you win right now? Are they starting postseason games this year? Maybe they could. To me, they seem like future pieces the Yankees would acquire this season, tinker with the rest of the way, then really turn loose next season. They’d join the Justus Sheffield/Jonathan Loaisiga talent pool rather than the Luis Severino/Sonny Gray/Sabathia/Tanaka group.

Coming up with under-the-radar trade candidates ain’t easy. Glasnow, Hoffman, and Richards jumped out at me because the stuff is excellent and, in the case of Glasnow and Hoffman, they fit the “buy low on a talented player who is kinda sorta falling out of favor with his current team” mold the Yankees used to get Gregorius and Hicks (and Nathan Eovaldi). I have no doubt surprise trade candidates will begin to surface. Maybe these dudes will be among them. Either way, the Yankees are going to look high and low for another starter before July 31st.

Yankees 3, Nationals 0: CC and two Didi dingers give Yankees another win

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Good win. Nine relatively stress-free innings against a very good Nationals team? Hard to complain about that. The Yankees won Tuesday night’s series opener 3-0. They are 34-10 since the 9-9 start.

(Al Bello/Getty)

Two Didi Dingers
You think Didi Gregorius is happy May is over? Good grief what an ugly month that was. Gregorius hit .151/.186/.215 (0 wRC+) last month, which is about as bad as it gets. He went into Tuesday’s game 8-for-31 (.258) in June. No power at all — all eight hits were singles — and .258 isn’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball, but that’s much better than May. We’ve seen some signs of life from the AL Player of the Month for April.

On Tuesday, Sir Didi’s power returned. He clubbed two solo homers against Tanner Roark, both to right field and both on pitches right out over the plate. The first was a hanging curveball and the second was a little two-seamer that tailed back middle-middle. The kind of pitches that should’ve been crushed, but you know what? Gregorius hasn’t been crushing those pitches lately. He did in April. Not so much in May (or early June). Good to see him do it again.

The Didi solo dingers gave the Yankees a 1-0 lead in the second and a 3-0 lead in the sixth. In between, the Yankees scored a run on Austin Romine’s second inning sacrifice fly. Aaron Hicks drew a walk and went to third on Neil Walker’s single to right (Walker was able to go to second when Bryce Harper overthrew the cutoff man). Romine put together a good six-pitch at-bat before lifting the sac fly to left for what was then a 2-0 lead.

The Yankees had a chance to really break the game open in the fifth, when two singles (Romine and Gleyber Torres) and a walk (Aaron Judge) loaded the bases with one out. Then Greg Bird popped up to shallow left, not deep enough to get the run home, and Giancarlo Stanton grounded out to short. Blah. If you’re keeping tabs on such things, the Yankees have not scored on anything other than a home run or sac fly since Brett Gardner’s triple in the second game of last Monday’s doubleheader in Detroit. Last 22 runs all on homers or sac flies.

Almost Six Strong From Sabathia
Last year CC Sabathia had a miserable four-start stretch in May in which he allowed 22 runs in 20.2 innings and had everyone wondering whether he was done. This season Sabathia had another miserable four-start stretch in May, during which he allowed 20 runs in 18.1 innings. Yikes. And, once again, folks were questioning whether Sabathia’s days as effective starter were over.

And, once again, the answer is no. Sabathia allowed two runs in seven innings last time out and, on Tuesday, he held a really good Nationals offense scoreless in 5.2 innings. It would’ve been six scoreless innings had Michael A. Taylor not beat out an infield single on a little tapper that couldn’t have traveled more than 15 feet from home plate. Sabathia allowed 18 balls in play Tuesday, and the average exit velocity was 75.7 mph. Fourth lowest by any pitcher in a start this season. Sabathia did have to wiggle out of some jams early in the game, of course.

  • First Inning: Stranded a two-out runner at first.
  • Second Inning: Stranded runners on first and second with two outs.
  • Fourth Inning: Stranded runners on first and second with one out.
  • Fifth Inning: Stranded runners on first and second with two outs.

Sabathia’s final line: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K on a season-high 101 pitches. Pretty much a standard late career Sabathia start, I’d say. Andy Pettitte-esque. Bunch of runners on base, minimized damage. Glad last month’s ugly four-start stretch is over.

(Al Bello/Getty)

Leftovers
Great night for the bullpen. Chad Green allowed a bloop single and Betances plunked Harper in the foot with an 0-2 curveball, and those were the only baserunners allowed by the relief crew. Green, Betances, and Aroldis Chapman combined: 3.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K. Chapman struck out two in a perfect ninth inning for his 18th save. I’ve said this a bunch already this season, but he’s been unreal this year. Total dominance in the ninth inning.

Every starter had at least one hit except Bird and Stanton, who had matching “0-for-4 with two strikeouts” lines. Like I said Tuesday morning, I really wish Aaron Boone would get Bird out of the No. 3 spot. He’s still shaking off the rust following the ankle surgery. I’m sure he’ll be fine eventually. But, until he’s fine, get him out of the premium lineup spot.

Rough night for Harper. He went 0-for-0 with two walks and two hit-by-pitches, and they were painful hit-by-pitches. Sabathia got him right on the elbow and Betances hit him in the foot. He was in obvious pain both times and actually came out of the game after the second hit-by-pitch. That’s no way to convince him to sign with the Yankees guys!

And finally, when Sabathia struck out Taylor for the second out of the fourth inning, it was his 1,500th strikeout as a Yankee. Pretty cool. He is fifth on the franchise all-time strikeout list, you know. Only Andy Pettitte (2,020), Whitey Ford (1,956), Ron Guidry (1,778), and Red Ruffing (1,526) have more strikeouts as a Yankee than CC.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
ESPN has the box score, MLB has the video highlights, and ESPN has the updated standings. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page and here’s the win probability graph:


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
The Yankees and Nationals will wrap up this quick two-game series Wednesday night at Yankee Stadium. Sonny Gray will be on the mound for the home team. The Nationals have not yet announced their starter for that game, though it’s expected to be former top prospect Erick Fedde.

DotF: Frazier and Drury help Scranton sweep doubleheader

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In case you missed it earlier, RHP Jonathan Loaisiga will be called up to make his MLB debut on Friday. It was originally announced as Thursday, but Aaron Boone corrected himself following tonight’s game. Loaisiga is replacing Tanaka and will start Friday.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders Game One (5-2 win over Rochester in seven innings)

  • DH Clint Frazier: 2-3, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI — here’s video of the dinger
  • CF Tyler Wade: 0-3, 1 K
  • 3B Brandon Drury: 0-3, 1 R — his on-base streak ends at 32 games … that’s the longest on-base streak since the franchise became the RailRiders in 2013
  • 1B Ryan McBroom: 2-3, 1 R
  • RF Billy McKinney: 1-2, 1 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB — back-to-back games with a homer and seven homers in his last 13 games
  • SS Abi Avelino: 1-3, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 K — eight homers in 59 games this season … his previous career high was six homers in 126 games in 2016
  • C Kyle Higashioka: 0-2
  • RHP Erik Swanson: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 8 K, 2 HR, 1 HB, 7/0 GB/FB — 58 of 85 pitches were strikes (68%) … 2.20 ERA and 81/17 K/BB in 65.1 total innings

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Game 62: Back in the Bronx

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(Presswire)

The Yankees are back home in the Bronx after a four-city road trip through Baltimore, Detroit, Toronto, and … uh … New York. They’ll play seven games at home, travel to Washington for one day, then come back to home for another three games. Weird schedule lately. Blame all the rainouts.

Anyway, the Nationals are in town for a quick two-game series this week and hey, this might be a World Series preview. It also might be Bryce Harper’s Yankee Stadium audition. In reality, it’s just another series, just another game. Play today, win today, das it. Here are tonight’s lineups:

New York Yankees
1. LF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Greg Bird
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. SS Didi Gregorius
6. CF Aaron Hicks
7. 3B Neil Walker
8. C Austin Romine
9. 2B Gleyber Torres

LHP CC Sabathia

Washington Nationals
1. LF Adam Eaton
2. SS Trea Turner
3. RF Bryce Harper
4. 3B Anthony Rendon
5. DH Daniel Murphy
6. 1B Mark Reynolds
7. CF Michael A. Taylor
8. C Pedro Severino
9. 2B Wilmer Difo

RHP Tanner Roark

There are a few clouds in the sky tonight and it is pretty windy, otherwise it’s a pleasant night for baseball in the Bronx. Tonight’s series opener will begin at 7:05pm ET and WPIX will have the broadcast. Enjoy the game.

Rotation Update: In case you missed it earlier, Jonathan Loaisiga is indeed being called up to replace Masahiro Tanaka. He’ll start Thursday.

Injury Updates: Gary Sanchez is sitting tonight and tomorrow. Aaron Boone called a physical break due to “wear and tear,” though it pretty clearly has to do with his slump too. Gregorius sat out back-to-back games last month when he was slumping, remember. Sanchez has been receiving treatment on his calf since leaving the game in Texas, and he is available if necessary … Masahiro Tanaka (hamstrings) played catch today. It was more about keeping his arm in shape than beginning rehab work. He’s still a few weeks away from returning.

All-Star Voting Update: MLB released the first fan voting update for the All-Star Game today. Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge are in line to start, though Sanchez’s lead over Wilson Ramos is tiny. Based on the last few years, I’d bet on Royals fans jamming the ballot box and getting Salvador Perez into the starter’s spot eventually. Judge has a very big lead on a starting outfield spot. Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, and Giancarlo Stanton are all distant seconds at their positions — in this case, Stanton’s position is DH — and Didi Gregorius is third at shortstop. Here are the current voting results.

Update: Jonathan Loaisiga will start Friday vs. Rays

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(Getty)

10:06pm ET: Boone corrected himself following tonight’s win. Loaisiga will start Friday, not Thursday. That’s when the Yankees were originally planning to use Tanaka’s replacement. Boone just misspoke before the game.

4:37pm ET: The Johnny Lasagna era is upon us. This afternoon Aaron Boone announced Jonathan Loaisiga is indeed being called up to replace Masahiro Tanaka. He’ll start Thursday, in the series opener against the Rays. That gives Domingo German and Luis Severino an extra day of rest before their next starts.

Loaisiga, 23, owns a 3.00 ERA (2.32 ERA) with 31.9% strikeouts and 2.2% walks in 45 innings split between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton this season. He threw 49 pitches Saturday in what sure seemed like a tune-up start. Loaisiga, my No. 17 prospect, had thrown only 2.1 innings above the short season minor leagues prior to 2018.

In yesterday’s poll, Loaisiga narrowly edged out Justus Sheffield as the preferred Tanaka replacement. The kid has made a meteoric rise since returning from Tommy John surgery last year, going from rookie ball to the 40-man roster to Double-A to the big leagues. Quite a year for Loaisiga.

The Yankees will have to make a 25-man roster move to accommodate Loaisiga. Ronald Torreyes was called back up when Tanaka went on the disabled list, so I suppose he could be sent back down, though I wonder whether Tyler Austin will get optioned instead. He hasn’t hit much lately and Torreyes is more versatile. We’ll see.

6/12 to 6/13 Series Preview: Washington Nationals

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The young phenom … and Bryce Harper (Greg Fiume/Getty Images)

Back in the Bronx! The Bombers begin a nine-game homestand that features a 1.5-game stint in Washington D.C. in the middle. Before they can get to the District, the Yankees will host the Nationals for two games on River Avenue.

The Last Time They Met

The Yanks and Nats played half a game last month, but the last time they completed a series was back on June 9-10, 2015 at Yankee Stadium. Nearly three years ago to the date.

  • Masahiro Tanaka outdueled Max Scherzer in the opening game as the Yankees won, 6-1. Stephen Drew hit a pair of solo home runs and the Bombers extended the lead off the Washington bullpen.
  • Game 2 pitching matchup was Gio Gonzalez and Nathan Eovaldi. Pretty funny that the two starters for the Nationals in the series were the two probable starters for the two-game set the Nationals had last month.
  • The Yankees gained a two-run advantage late, but a shorthanded bullpen forced Jacob Lindgren into a high leverage eighth inning and he gave up a tying homer to Michael A. Taylor. The Nats would win in extras of Chris Capuano.

For more information, check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post on that series.

Injury Report

A lot of big names on the disabled list. 2B Daniel Murphy could make his season debut this series while RHPs Stephen Strasburg, Jeremy Hellickson and Brandon Kintzler were recently placed on the 10-day DL. Ryan Zimmerman could be back soon from back soreness but likely needs a rehab stint first.

Relievers Joaquin Benoit and Koda Glover, as well as catchers Matt Wieters and Jhonatan Solano, will miss this series and Yankee killer Howie Kendrick is done for the season with a ruptured right Achilles.

Their Story So Far

The Nationals are tied for the National League East division lead at 36-27 despite getting off to a slow start to the season. They’ve been especially strong away from Nationals Park, going 21-11 on the road. However, they’ve cooled off a bit recently after losing five of their last nine.

Contrary to the last few seasons, this isn’t a top-notch offensive team, batting .236/.315/.400 (92 wRC+) as a team. Their starting rotation has remained stout and they have an improved bullpen headlined by Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson. In their lineup, Zimmerman and Murphy have missed significant time while Bryce Harper is in a bit of a slump.

Lineup We Might See

A lot of lefties on Dave Martinez’s squad, so there will a different mix that faces CC Sabathia compared with the one that faces Sonny Gray. Here’s a lineup with all their best healthy hitters even though Taylor or Wilmer Difo may get a start.

1. RF Adam Eaton (.333/.421/.606, 179 wRC+)
2. SS Trea Turner (.254/.339/.387, 99 wRC+)
3. CF/RF Bryce Harper (.228/.360/.509, 127 wRC+)
4. 3B Anthony Rendon (.262/.342/.452, 112 wRC+)
5. 1B Matt Adams (.265/.345/.578, wRC+)
6. 2B Daniel Murphy (.322/.384/.543, 136 wRC+ in 2017)
7. DH Mark Reynolds (.290/.343/.597, 152 wRC+)
8. LF Juan Soto (.328/.431/.541, 163 wRC+)
9. C Pedro Severino (.197/.303/.254, 50 wRC+)

Fun Fact: A.J. Cole, with a home run in three ABs, leads the Nationals with a 344 wRC+.

He’s not Scherzer, but Roark isn’t an easy customer. (Daniel Shirey/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Tuesday (7:05 PM ET): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Tanner Roark
Tanner Roark is really good in even-numbered seasons and slightly below average in odd years. This season has been a slight departure as he’s been good (3.56 ERA/113 ERA+ in 78 1/3 innings) but not outstanding as he was in 2016 (2.83 ERA/151 ERA+ in 210 innings).

Part of why he fluctuates season to season is that he allows a lot of balls in play. In his career, only about 25 percent of his PAs end in strikeouts or walks.

The 31-year-old has lost one mph off his fastball/sinker but still has gotten solid results overall, though his groundball rate has declined a bit. He lives in the low 90s with a lot of sinkers and mixes in mid-80s sliders and changeups as well as a mid-70s curveball, with equal rates among the off-speed offerings.

Last Outing (vs. TB on June 6) – 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR

Wednesday (7:05 PM ET): RHP Sonny Gray vs. TBA
This is Strasburg’s spot in the rotation, but he left his last start early and is on the DL. The likely replacement is Erick Fedde, who has produced middling results in Triple-A. Formerly a top prospect, he’s lost a bit of his luster after three poor starts in 2017 and average results in Triple-A. He had a solid spot start last month. As for his repertoire, he lives in the low-to-mid 90s with his fastball, using a slider as his go-to offspeed offering and a changeup that is hit or miss.

The other starters on the Nationals’ 40-man roster that could make the starter are Austin Voth and Jefry Rodriguez, each of whom has been called up at least once this year. Edwin Jackson opted out just before the Nationals’ rash of injuries and former starter A.J. Cole is in the Yankees bullpen. Not a lot of options.

The Bullpen

Acquiring Doolittle and Mason from Oakland last season has helped the Nationals turn their bullpen into a strength, even as Blake Treinen has excelled with the Athletics. Justin Miller has gotten off to a solid start in middle relief and southpaw Sammy Solis continues to get reps there as well.

Shawn Kelley hasn’t been nearly as bad as last season’s 7.27 ERA, but he hasn’t been great. Lefties Tim Collins and Matt Grace have been fine in small samples while righties Trevor Gott and Wander Suero are typically low leverage guys.

With a Monday day off and Scherzer’s start Sunday, the Nationals’ pen should be pretty well rested.

Yankees Connection

You may remember Kelley from his 105 innings in middle relief for the Bombers from 2013-14 before he was traded for Johnny Barbato. Reynolds spent 36 games with the Yankees in late 2013 at first and third base while former Yankee hitting coach Kevin Long is now the Nats’ hitting coach.

Who (Or What) to Watch?

  • Phew! No Scherzer! The Yankees dodge a bullet there, yet there’s still a ton of star power. I’m always down to watch Harper and Rendon/Turner/Eaton are pretty exciting as well.
  • However, the most exciting thing might be 19-year-old wunderkind Juan Soto. The youngest player in the majors has done nothing but hit at every level with his 72 PAs with the big league club no exception. Perhaps most impressive is his 11 walks vs. 11 strikeouts.

The Yankees and Aaron Boone are being rewarded for their patience with Dellin Betances

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(Presswire)

If nothing else, Aaron Boone has shown he is relentlessly positive in his few short months as a big league manager. He enjoys wins and seems to quickly turn the page on losses, which are good managerial traits. The Yankees seem loose, they look like they’re having fun, and they’re winning lots of baseball games. The first few months of the Aaron Boone era have gone very well.

Boone has also shown that he has his players’ backs at all times, even when everyone else is throwing a dude under the bus. There is no better example of this than Dellin Betances. Betances completely lost the strike zone late last year and was unusable in the postseason. Then Dellin gave up a home run in his first appearance this season, and the second time out Kevin Pillar stole his way around the bases. It was ugly.

Many fans were ready to run Betances out of town. Saw it with my own eyes on social media and our comments. Boone? Boone stuck with Dellin the entire time. “We’ll continue to work with him, continue to believe in him, and continue to need him in big situations,” said Boone after the ugliness of the opening series in Toronto. It was easy to laugh at that given what was happening on the field, but Boone meant it.

Fast-forward to June, and now Betances has reestablished himself as the Eighth Inning Guy™ and is once again a dominant setup man. The 3.54 ERA leaves something to be desired, but, in 24 games since that opening series in Toronto, Betances has a 2.88 ERA (1.87 FIP) with 44.6% strikeouts, 9.9% walks, and 51.1% ground balls. He struck out the side on eleven pitches Saturday and you can see his confidence is back. The swagger is back.

“That’s probably the best I’ve felt … ever,” said Betances to Randy Miller following Saturday’s game. “I think my fastball is good, my breaking ball is good, and I’ve said it a couple times already: Even when things weren’t going as good (in April) when I was giving up a couple runs, it’s probably the best I’ve felt in a while.”

Betances credited bullpen coach Mike Harkey for helping spur on the turnaround — “Harkey is a guy who I rely on and I try to repeat everything that he tells me to do when I’m out there. I think I’ve been listening a little more,” he said — and chalked it up to improved fastball command, fewer breaking balls, and a better game plan.

“I felt like earlier on I probably wasn’t throwing my fastball as good command wise,” he said. “… At times I was throwing too many breaking balls. I think I’m doing a better job of mixing my pitches and having a better game plan and kind of trusting everything I have … Earlier in the year I felt like I was going out there and just throwing anything. My game plan wasn’t as good.”

There is no mystery with Dellin. He’s a fastball/curveball pitcher and, for a long time, it has been basically a 50/50 split. This all predates the team’s anti-fastball philosophy too. Betances was curveball heavy long before it was cool to be curveball heavy. His pitch usage over the years:

Two things stand out to me so far this season. One, Betances is throwing more strikes. I mean, duh. He’s thrown 51.1% of his pitches in the zone this year, up from 46.7% last year and 45.0% the year before. The MLB average is 48.0%. And two, more pitches in the zone means hitters have to actually swing against Betances. Last year he was so wild they stopped swinging and let Dellin work himself into trouble. That is no longer the case.

It sounds obvious — and it is — but gosh, throwing strikes makes a world of difference, especially for a dude like Betances. His stuff is so good that the hitter is on the defensive even in non-two-strike counts. How many times have we seen hitters buckle at the curveball and swing late on the fastball? When he’s right, Dellin can make hitters do funny looking things at the plate, and we’ve seen hitters do more funny looking things lately.

With Betances, it always feels like we’re waiting for the other shoe to drop, especially these last two years. We’ve seen him do the “great early in the season and bad late in the season” thing multiples times now, and it is entirely possible he’ll do it again. There’s not much else we can do other than wait and see how the season plays out. I know two things though. One, Betances has been awesome lately and he’s helping the Yankees win games. Good Betances is really good.

And two, if Dellin were as much of a headcase and as mentally weak as so many people seem to think, he wouldn’t have rebounded from last year to be this good again. The headcase and mentally weak stuff is straight garbage. Lazy trope by those unwilling to look for a real answer. Betances has a history of mechanical issues and control problems who had mechanical issues and control problems last year. And so far this year, he’s fixed whatever ailed him, thanks in part to the team’s patience.