Scouting The Free Agent Market: Alexi Ogando

(Tom Pennington/Getty)
(Tom Pennington/Getty)

Aside from the still unsigned Max Scherzer and James Shields, the free agent pitching market is very thin. All that’s left is a bunch of reclamation project types — guys coming off injury or veteran pitchers nearing the end of the line. Guys like that. The Yankees could use another arm or two to protect against their risky rotation, though the current options aren’t all that appealing.

One of the many available reclamation project arms is ex-Rangers right-hander Alexi Ogando, who was non-tendered back in November after throwing only 25 ineffective innings last season due to injury. Ogando held a showcase in Tampa last week and Peter Gammons said about two dozen clubs were expected to attend. Nick Cafardo heard teams are still concerned about his health, and then of course Ogando’s agent shot that down. From MLBTR:

Alexi Ogando was 92 to 93 and touched 94 at a bullpen session for numerous teams last week,” says (agent Larry) Reynolds. “After an earlier examination by Dr. [James] Andrews, coupled with his promising progression, we believe Alexi should have no problem securing a job and will be pitching on Day 1 of 2015 Spring Training.”

The 31-year-old Ogando has worked as both a starter and a reliever throughout his career, and his career numbers to date make him something of a rich man’s Esmil Rogers. For the Yankees, he could serve as rotation protection — perhaps only early in the season, until Ivan Nova returns or a better option becomes available via trade — and additional bullpen depth, at least if healthy. Let’s break Ogando down.

Injury History

Might as well start here and get it out of the way. Ogando missed most of last season with a ligament sprain in his elbow that did not require Tommy John surgery, but was serious enough to sideline him for an extended period of time. In 2013, Ogando landed on the DL three times with arm problems: he missed three weeks with a biceps strain, seven weeks with shoulder inflammation, and three weeks with a nerve issue in his shoulder. Aside from that, the only other time Ogando has been hurt in his career came back in 2012, when he missed a month with a groin strain.

The arm injuries are obviously a major concern. We’re talking about a recent history of both elbow and shoulder problems for a pitcher who is over 30. Barely over 30, but over 30 nonetheless. The teams telling Cafardo they are concerned about Ogando’s health and Ogando’s agent telling MLBTR his client is fine are both self-serving — teams are trying to depress his market and the agent wants to pump it up. Either way, it’s clear the physical will be a big part of the signing. Ogando has some name value and a history of strong performance, but he’s no help if he’s hurt or otherwise compromised on the mound due to injury.

Overall Performance

Did you know Ogando was once drafted in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft? Those guys almost never amount to anything, but the Rangers took him as an outfielder from the Athletics in 2005, converted him into a pitcher, and away he went. Neat story. Anyway, here is Ogando’s overall performance through the years, via Baseball-Reference:

Year Age Tm ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W
2010 26 TEX 1.30 44 0 41.2 31 6 6 2 16 39 348 3.06 1.128 6.7 0.4 3.5 8.4 2.44
2011 ? 27 TEX 3.51 31 29 169.0 149 73 66 16 43 126 126 3.65 1.136 7.9 0.9 2.3 6.7 2.93
2012 28 TEX 3.27 58 1 66.0 49 26 24 9 17 66 134 3.73 1.000 6.7 1.2 2.3 9.0 3.88
2013 29 TEX 3.11 23 18 104.1 87 38 36 11 41 72 133 4.36 1.227 7.5 0.9 3.5 6.2 1.76
2014 30 TEX 6.84 27 0 25.0 33 19 19 1 15 22 57 3.81 1.920 11.9 0.4 5.4 7.9 1.47
5 Yrs 3.35 183 48 406.0 349 162 151 39 132 325 129 3.80 1.185 7.7 0.9 2.9 7.2 2.46

Last season was a total disaster because of the injuries. Before that Ogando was a very good Major League pitcher, compiling a 3.12 ERA (3.79 FIP) in 381 innings from 2010-13. He is very much a fly ball pitcher — his career ground ball rate is 38.2% and his single-season best was only 43.8% in 2010 — but that isn’t automatically a bad thing. Ogando excels at getting infield pop-ups, which are very high percentage outs. His career fly ball rate is 40.8%, and of those fly balls, 12.8% have been pop-ups. Since 2010, only six pitchers have had a higher infield pop-up rate (min. 350 IP).

Infield pop-ups seem to be a common trait for pitchers who outperform their FIP — Jered Weaver, the poster boy for outperforming peripherals, has a 12.7% infield fly ball rate since 2010, essentially identical to Ogando’s — but there is a catch: Ogando’s infield pop-up rate has been consistently declining since his MLB debut. It was 18.6% during his debut in 2010, and it has since dropped to 14.7% in 2011, 13.7% in 2012, 9.5% in 2013, and 5.3% in 2014. That’s not good. Pop-ups aren’t the only reason Ogando has been successful, but they are a big part of who he is as a pitcher.

The league average pop-up rate has hovered right around 9.8% over the last five years, so Ogando still had an average rate two years ago. The big drop last season could be due to his elbow issue. At least that’s what whoever signs him will hope.

Rotation vs. Bullpen

Ogando has spent approximately one full season and one half season as a regular big league starter. He’s spent the rest of his career working out of the bullpen. Surprisingly, Ogando the starter and Ogando the reliever have been very similar statistically:

IP ERA FIP K% BB% GB% IFFB% HR/FB% BABIP
as SP 267.2 3.40 3.95 17.6 7.4 38.1 12.7 8.3 .261
as RP 138.1 3.25 3.51 22.7 8.8 38.5 13.1 7.5 .278

Regardless of role, Ogando has always performed a bit better against righties (.283 wOBA and 3.02 FIP) than lefties (.296 wOBA and 4.02 FIP). The difference in strikeout rate between roles is fairly standard but otherwise Ogando managed to keep everything relatively close. If teams knew Ogando was 100% healthy, they’d be lining up to sign him thanks to his versatility. The injuries add a ton of risk and are why he remains unsigned in mid-January despite such a thin pitching market.

Stuff

For the first three years of his MLB career, Ogando was a pure fastball/slider pitcher who rarely threw a changeup. Even as a starter in 2011, he threw 67% fastballs, 29% sliders, and 4% changeups. Ogando has increased the usage of his changeup the last two years though, throwing it a bit more than 12% of the time from 2013-14. That’s nice, but the fastball and slider are still his bread and butter. The changeup is a distant third pitch.

Ogando had premium velocity early in his career, averaging 97.5 mph with his fastball as a reliever in 2010, 96.1 mph as a starter in 2011, and then 98.1 mph as a reliever in 2012. He’s sat a bit below that the last two years — 94.8 mph as mostly a starter in 2013 and 95.2 mph as a reliever in 2014 — but still offered above-average velocity in general. Obviously the injuries likely played a part in the velocity decline. For what it’s worth, Ogando’s slider has consistently sat in the 82-85 mph range over the years.

Here is how Ogando’s fastball/slider with a show-me changeup mix has fared at getting swings-and-misses and ground balls over the years, via Brooks Baseball:

FB Whiff% FB GB% SL Whiff% SL GB% CH Whiff% CH GB%
2010 (RP) 11.8% 35.4% 12.2% 51.2% 13.2% 60.0%
2011 (SP) 9.0% 39.2% 13.3% 36.3% 16.5% 41.2%
2012 (RP) 13.9% 27.9% 16.6% 52.5% 0.0% 75.0%
2013 (SP) 6.7% 32.5% 13.1% 48.7% 12.3% 59.7%
2014 (RP) 7.5% 28.4% 15.3% 54.6% 23.5% 63.6%
MLB AVG 6.9% 37.9% 15.2% 43.9% 14.9% 47.8%

Remember, Ogando barely threw his changeup from 2010-12, so only the 2013-14 numbers matter there. His fastball has never been much of a ground ball pitch but from 2010-12, it was a top notch swing-and-miss pitch. The last two years, thanks to the reduced velocity and injuries, it’s been closer to average. Ogando’s slider has actually been generally been below-average at getting empty swings through the years.

Ogando’s fastball is his money-maker based on how often he’s thrown it throughout his career, which has been north of 60%. At its best, it had upper-90s velocity, got a well-above-average amount of swings and misses, and helped get all those infield pop-ups. Ogando’s fastball has been compromised these last two years though, presumably due to his injuries, and that means he’s simply not the same pitcher.

Ogando’s agent told MLBTR his client was “92 to 93 and touched 94 at his workout last week, which is actually encouraging if true. Remember, it’s only mid-January and he’s not in midseason form. After a full Spring Training and all that he should add a tick or two of velocity, like just about all other pitchers. That’s not guaranteed though, and there’s no possible way to know what Ogando’s fastball will look like come the regular season. It’s all guesswork.

Contract Situation

The Rangers opted to non-tender Ogando rather than pay him a projected $2.6M in 2015, his second to last year of team control, which I think speaks volumes about his health. Texas’ pitching staff is pretty thin and you’d think they would take Ogando at that salary this coming year if they were at all confident he could stay healthy and/or be effective. Instead, they walked away. That’s a red flag. They know him better than anyone, remember.

Ogando’s agent said he is seeking a big league contract, and that could still happen, but I don’t think he’d make sense for the Yankees in that case. Remember, signing Ogando to a big league deal means someone has to be dropped from the 40-man roster, so it costs you a player. With Eury Perez likely to go for Stephen Drew, next in line to get the axe is probably Gonzalez Germen. Either him, Chase Whitley, or Jose DePaula. Ogando might be worth the roll of the dice in that case, but the Yankees would be letting go of a healthy, MLB ready and able body for a pitcher who might not be what he once was.

As for a minor league contract, of course, go for it. If he does have to settle for a minor league deal, Ogando and his agent are going to be looking for the best opportunity, a team with a rotation opening or a thin bullpen. The Yankees have an open bullpen spot but a lot of internal candidates. Their rotation looks like it will need help, but right now that isn’t set in stone. Ogando could opt to go to a team with a more obvious rotation need, like, say, the Diamondbacks or White Sox.

Bottom line, Ogando will be a big risk next year given his recent injuries. He could be throwing well in showcases this winter and that’s fine, but pitchers who have had arm injuries two years running tend to continue getting hurt going forward. The Yankees need to add more certainty to their rotation somehow and Ogando would be doubling down on risk. And at this point of the offseason, that might be the only way to help the rotation without breaking the bank for Scherzer or Shields.

Monday Night Open Thread

Got some good news. On Instagram yesterday, Ty Hensley posted a video of himself throwing, just two weeks after he was viciously attacked during the holidays. It’s not much, but it shows Ty is no longer stuck in bed recovering. I have no idea if he will ready to start the season in time — his jaw is wired shut, which means he’s probably going to lose some weight the next few weeks and then need time to rebuild strength — but it’s good to see Hensley’s already back up on the horse and throwing. I’m rooting for him so much.

Here is your nightly open thread. Oregon and Ohio State are playing the college football national championship game (8:30pm ET on ESPN), plus the Nets are in action as well. That’s it for local spots. Use this thread to talk about anything on your mind, Yankees or otherwise.

Yankees announce new hires and changes to coaching staff for 2015

Pena has a new role for 2015. (Presswire)
Pena has a new role for 2015. (Presswire)

The Yankees have finalized and announced their 2015 coaching staff. As expected, Jeff Pentland and Alan Cockrell have been hired as the hitting coach and assistant hitting coach, respectively, and Joe Espada joins the team as infield coach. We heard those moves were coming yesterday.

There are other changes, however. Espada is taking over as third base coach with Rob Thomson shifting to bench coach. Tony Pena is now the first base coach. Bullpen coach Gary Tuck and pitching coach Larry Rothschild remain in their roles. Back when former hitting coach Kevin Long and first base coach Mick Kelleher were let go, we heard the Yankees could rearrange their staff a bit, and that’s exactly what happened.

Espada, 39, was the Marlins third base coach from 2010-13, so he has experience in that role. Thomson had been the team’s third base coach since 2009. He served as Joe Girardi‘s bench coach in 2008 and before that was the first base coach. Pena had been the bench coach since 2009 and prior to that he spent the 2005-08 seasons as the club’s first base coach, so he’s returning to a familiar role.

Thomson caught a lot of grief last year because the Yankees had 21 runners thrown out at the plate, the fourth most in baseball, and some were due to aggressive sends that were obviously bad. The Yankees had among the fewest runners thrown out at the plate in baseball from 2010-13, however. The Marlins also had a relatively small number of runners thrown out at home during Espada’s tenure, but that doesn’t tell us too much about him as a third base coach.

Either way, the most significant moves are the additions of Pentland and Cockrell. The rest is just rearranging furniture, really. The Yankees, like several other teams, have decided hitting coach is a two-man job and will count on the new voices of Pentland and Cockrell to turn around an offense that has been below-average the last two years. It seems like an impossible task to me, but that’s the job.

Bullpen overhaul doesn’t change Jacob Lindgren’s timetable

(Martin Griff/The Times of Trenton)
(Martin Griff/The Times of Trenton)

The Yankees have been very active this offseason, eschewing big money long-term deals in favor of lower profile transactions, often with more players coming in than going out. The bullpen in particular has been overhauled this winter. In fact, the only two members of the 2014 Opening Day bullpen still with the organization are Dellin Betances and Adam Warren. David Robertson, Shawn Kelley, Matt Thornton, David Phelps, and Vidal Nuno are all gone. How about that?

Betances will again anchor the late innings this coming season, and while Warren could join him, there’s a chance he could up in the rotation to start the season. More than a small chance, I’d say. Robertson has been replaced by Andrew Miller, Kelley by David Carpenter, Thornton by Justin Wilson, and Phelps by Esmil Rogers. The Yankees still need to figure out who will take Nuno’s spot (and potentially Warren’s) but have no shortage of candidates. Chasen Shreve, Chase Whitley, Danny Burawa, Jose Ramirez, Branden Pinder, and Gonzalez Germen are all 40-man roster options.

Among the non-40-man options is left-hander Jacob Lindgren, the Yankees’ top pick in last year’s amateur draft. The 21-year-old Lindgren is a pure reliever out of Mississippi State who was widely expected to be the first player from the 2014 draft class to reach MLB, but it didn’t quite work out that way. Brandon Finnegan of the Royals beat him to the show. Lindgren did reach Double-A Trenton in his pro debut before being shutdown due to his workload, however.

Between college and pro ball, Lindgren threw 80.1 innings in 2014, allowing eleven earned runs (1.23 ERA) on 35 hits and 38 walks (0.91 WHIP) while striking out 148. That’s a 16.6 K/9 and 45.1 K%. Lindgren also had a 71.0% or so ground ball rate at Mississippi State and an 81.0 % ground ball rate in pro ball. If you’re going to select a college reliever early in the draft — Lindgren was a second rounder (55th overall) after the Yankees forfeited some picks to sign free agents — he needs to really dominate, and dominate he did.

You can learn more about Lindgren in our Prospect Profile, but, to use a Brian Cashman phrase, the short version is that he checks every box. Misses bats, gets grounders, deception in his delivery, two excellent pitches in his fastball and slider … the works. Lindgren is about eight inches shorter than Miller and that’s not insignificant, though they have similar styles as southpaws with a knockout slider who can get both righties and lefties out. Between Miller, Wilson, and Lindgren, the Yankees have three lefty relievers at the upper levels who are more than matchup specialists. That’s pretty cool.

This winter’s bullpen overhaul means Lindgren’s chances of making the Opening Day roster have taken a hit. There are still some open spots, but the team already has several 40-man roster options ahead of Lindgren on the depth chart. Depth is never a bad thing, but in this case is works against him. That’s life. He will likely have to start the season with Triple-A Scranton and wait for a call-up. Make no mistake though, Lindgren is still very much part of the team’s 2015 plans.

“We saw a guy with above-average tools — an above-average fastball, a well above-average slider and he has some deception,” said assistant GM Billy Eppler to George King (subs. req’d) recently. “He has the ingredients to move quickly, especially the role he is in … Either way (Opening Day roster or not), he has made an impact.”

(MiLB.com)
(MiLB.com)

Simply put, the Yankees didn’t select a college reliever with their top draft pick and pay him a seven-figure signing bonus to not get him to the big leagues in a hurry. Lindgren was on the fast track last year and that track will continue into 2015. Yeah, the bullpen turnover means his chances of making the roster out of Spring Training have gone down, but I still expect Lindgren to be one of the first bullpen arms called up when reinforcements are inevitably needed.

Part of my thinking — and I’m guessing part of the team’s thinking as well — is the whole “there are so many bullets in that arm” thing, and there’s no sense wasting those bullets in the minors. Relievers generally have a short shelf life and the best way to maximize Lindgren’s value is to get him to MLB soon, not let him sit in the minors and waste time tinkering with a changeup or something like that. He’s a finished product for his role. The only development left for him is the learning and development that takes place in the big leagues.

Even before the bullpen was overhauled, I thought Lindgren’s first year in the big leagues could look like Robertson’s, meaning a few rides on the bus between Triple-A Scranton and the Bronx. (Robertson went up and down five different times from 2008-09 before sticking for good in late-May 2009). That’s how most relievers break in, and given all the team’s bullpen arms, it seems even more likely now. That’s fine as long as Lindgren gets chances. He doesn’t have to step right into high-leverage work, doesn’t need to immediately enter Joe Girardi‘s Circle of Trust™, just get opportunities to contribute. Given Girardi’s track record with relievers, I have no doubt it’ll happen.

The Yankees will benefit if and when Lindgren spends time in the minors by delaying his free agency one year — he only has to spend about eleven days in the minors for that to happen — but beyond that there isn’t much to be gained. Lindgren is ready to contribute right now and the Yankees know this. He wasn’t pushed aside by all the relievers brought in this winter, he’s part of the depth the team has been building. The bullpen at the end of the season is always different than the bullpen on Opening Day, and even though Lindgren is unlikely to be part of the picture in April, expect him to be there by September.

Short-term extensions for Pineda and Eovaldi make sense for Yankees

(Getty)
(Getty)

This coming Friday is a rather significant offseason date. It’s the deadline for teams and their arbitration-eligible players to exchange salary figures, which is something both sides try to avoid. Arbitration is an acrimonious process that could potentially damage relationships. It’s not fun sitting through an arbitration hearing while your team details your shortcomings and explains why you aren’t worth as much as you think. Exchanging salary figures is step one in that process.

The Yankees haven’t been to an arbitration hearing since beating Chien-Ming Wang in 2008 — he earned $4M instead of $4.6M in 2008, and while that doesn’t sound like much of a difference, the savings carry over into future years as well — and I can’t even remember the last time they got as far as exchanging salary figures with a player. They’ve signed all of their arbitration-eligible players before the deadline to submit salary figures the last several years and I have no reason to think this year will be any different.

The Yankees started the offseason with seven arbitration-eligible players and are now down to four after a series of trades and non-tenders and signings. They’ve already avoided arbitration with Esmil Rogers by giving him a one-year deal worth $1.48M — that represents the maximum allowable pay cut from his 2014 salary, so it seems the Yankees said take this or we’ll non-tender you — and the four unsigned arbitration-eligible players are setup man David Carpenter, the injured Ivan Nova, and two pitchers with a bit more than three years of service time in Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Pineda.

The three-year service time level is a weird place for starting pitchers. They’re hitting arbitration for the first time, which is right when you’d expect teams to lock up their top young arms with long-term extensions. But that hasn’t been the case recently. According to MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, Johnny Cueto is the only pitcher to sign long-term at that service time level since 2009. He received a four-year contract worth $27M with one option year.

Aside from Cueto, five other pitchers at the three-year service time level have signed multi-year extensions since 2009, and all five were two-year contracts with no options. All those deals did for the team was buy short-term cost certainty. The pitcher got a nice little payday while remaining arbitration-eligible one time after the two-year contract expired and still hitting free agency the year after that. It’s about short-term cost control, that’s it. It’s a bridge deal, so to speak.

With Eovaldi and Pineda arbitration-eligible for the first time this year, the Yankees could follow suit and sign one or both to short-term bridge deals now that the no extensions policy is no longer in place. A two-year deal makes a lot of sense for the team, I think. Both Eovaldi and Pineda carry enough questions — transition to the AL and injuries, respectively — that a long-term contract would be really risky, but they also have enough potential that they could take off in 2015 and cost a fortune through arbitration in 2016.

So, with that in mind, let’s quickly compare Eovaldi and Pineda to four of the five pitchers who signed two-year bridge contracts in recent seasons. The fifth pitcher, the one I’m excluding, is Clayton Kershaw, who isn’t comparable to anyone given his otherworldly performance. He was poised to smash arbitration salary records before signing his two-year deal.

Eovaldi Pineda Latos Chacin Kendrick Hammel
Career bWAR 4.3 5.0 9.0 8.2 3.1 3.4
Platform Year bWAR 0.2 2.7 4.3 1.9 1.8 1.5
Year 1 Salary pr. $3.1M pr. $2.1M $4.25M $1.65M $3M $3M
Year 2 Salary ? ? $7.25M $4.85M $4.5M $4.75M
Total $ ? ? $11.5M $6.5M $7.5M $7.75M

Eovaldi and Pineda are projected to earn $3.1M and $2.1M through arbitration this coming season, respectively, according to MLBTR’s model. There is no perfect comparison here given their somewhat unusual career paths, particularly Pineda, but there are never perfect comparisons anyway. All the Mat Latos, Jhoulys Chacin, Kyle Kendrick, and Jason Hammel contracts do is give us a ballpark number.

Based on performance and projected salary, the Kendrick and Hammel contracts appear to work as comparables for Eovaldi, but there’s a big catch: both Kendrick and Hammel were Super Twos who signed their bridge deals in their second of four trips through arbitration. They earned $2.45M and $1.9M their first times through arbitration, respectively. That complicates things. Those two were starting from a much higher base salary.

Had he not spent most of the last three seasons injured, Pineda could have been in line for Latos money this offseason, if not more. Actually, if he had been healthy, he would have been arbitration-eligible for the first time last winter. The Yankees optioned him to Triple-A two years ago after he completed his rehab and he spent enough time in the minors to push his arbitration-eligibility (and free agency) back a year.

Since this is an apples to oranges comparison, let’s look at it another way. Based on his salary in the first year of his bridge deal, Latos received a 171% raise in year two. Chacin received a 294% raise, Kendrick a 150% raise, and Hammel a 158% raise. Chacin is a huge outlier for whatever reason. Ignoring him, the other three averaged a 160% raise from year one to year two of their bridge deals. (Kershaw received a 146% raise from year one to year two of his contract, so even he’s in the same ballpark.)

If we apply that 160% raise to Eovaldi’s and Pineda’s projected 2015 salary, we get two-year contracts worth approximately $8.1M and $5.5M, respectively. That’s $3.1M in year one and $5M in year two for Eovaldi, and $2.1M in year one and $3.4M in year two for Pineda. This isn’t the most precise salary forecast in the world but we’re only looking for a ballpark number for discussion purposes, not an exact projection for a detailed analysis.

I don’t know about you, but I’d give Pineda two years and $5.5M in a heartbeat. Yes, I know he’s risky as hell, but it’s super cheap and he flat out dominated when on the mound last season. If he stays healthy this coming year and continues pitching anywhere close to that level, he’ll get a massive raise come 2016. Pineda signed for a small bonus as an amateur back in the day ($35,000!) and he’s already had one major shoulder surgery. He might jump at the guaranteed millions. I know I would.

As for Eovaldi, two years and $8.1M is a drop in the bucket for New York, though I wish we could see him in action in the AL East and Yankee Stadium before committing. Even if he were to flop next season, I think he’d still have plenty of trade value next offseason even with a $5M salary already set in stone for 2016. He’s young and throws hard. Teams are always looking for someone like that. It’s easy to say sign him, but I would understand passing and going year-to-year as well.

The big long-term extensions are fun and usually lead to tremendous savings in the future, but starting pitchers have been treated differently in recent years. At least pitchers at Eovaldi’s and Pineda’s service time level. A two-year bridge deal doesn’t buy up any free agent years or anything like that, but it does limit risk and could help the Yankees save some money not only in 2016, but also in 2017 since the savings career over. (Arbitration uses the player’s salary in the previous year as a base.)

There has been no indication the Yankees are considering a multi-year extension for any player right now, even a short two-year deal for Eovaldi and Pineda. That doesn’t mean they haven’t at least kicked around the idea though. It’s understandable if they simply sign both guys to a one-year contract for 2015 since Eovaldi has yet to throw a pitch in pinstripes and Pineda has made only 13 starts in the last three years, but a two-year bridge contract for either pitcher has the potential to be very beneficial. For both sides, really.

Fan Confidence Poll: January 12th, 2015

2014 Record: 84-78 (633 RS, 664 RA, 77-85 pythag. record), did not qualify for postseason

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?

Weekend Open Thread

Six weeks from today, pitchers and catchers will officially report to Spring Training for the 2015 season. It seems so close and yet so far at the same time. Here are the weekend links:

  • My pal Carson Cistulli put together a post looking for the next Garrett Richards, meaning a prospect with big time velocity, very good control, and no changeup. This is actually a follow-up to Carson’s work in 2012 looking for the next Michael Pineda — another big velocity, very good control, no changeup guy — which cranked out Richards as the next Pineda. There are no Yankees prospects in his year’s results but it’s still a fun study.
  • In a two-part series (part one, part two), Noah Baron looked at ways to try to improve fWAR, specifically by using FIP-based park factors and what amount to division factors. His work shows fWAR is overvaluing AL pitchers and undervaluing NL pitchers, by as much as 5%.
  • Jeff Wiser wrote about players only elite skill is base-running, like Eric Young Jr. and Emilio Bonifacio. Those types of players tend to be overvalued and given more playing time than they deserve, but there is a place for them on some rosters.

Friday: This is your open thread for the night. The Devils, Islanders, and Nets are all playing, plus there’s the usual slate of college basketball as well. Talk about anything and everything right here.

Saturday: Use this as your open thread again. The NFL playoffs are in full swing — the Ravens and Patriots are playing right now (on NBC), and later tonight the Panthers and Seahawks play (8pm ET on FOX). The Knicks already lost but tonight the Nets, Rangers, and Islanders are all playing. Talk about those games or anything else right here.

Sunday: This is the open thread one last time. The Colts and Broncos are playing right now (on CBS) and there’s also some college basketball, but that’s it. Have at it.