For not the first time this season, the Yankees’ bullpen was unable to preserve a lead against the Orioles on Friday afternoon. Baltimore walked off with a 2-1 win in eleven innings in the series opener.
Nine Scoreless Innings, The Good Way
Brandon McCarthy gave the Yankees everything they could have possibly wanted against the most powerful offense in baseball. The tall right-hander held the Orioles to three scattered singles and one double in seven scoreless innings, striking out six and recording 14 of his 21 outs on the infield. McCarthy retired 13 straight batters at one point from the second through sixth innings and he retired 17 of the final 19 men he faced overall. Seventy-five of his 106 pitches were strikes (71%). He was dominant.
Joe Girardi opted to send McCarthy out to start the eighth inning even though his pitch count was sitting at 104, and sure enough ex-Yankee Kelly Johnson greeted him with a leadoff ground-rule double. That ended McCarthy’s afternoon. I absolutely hate that, sending the starter back out for another inning when his pitch count is over 100 and his leash is one base-runner. Just let the reliever start the inning clean if that’s the case, especially with expanded rosters and no real need to worry about running out of arms.
Dellin Betances was able to escape the mess with two strikeouts and a ground ball, though it wasn’t that easy. Nick Hundley bunted Johnson to third, and for whatever reason Mark Teixeira tried to throw him out, which didn’t work. He’s lucky the throw hit Johnson as he slid into the base, otherwise it would have sailed into left field. Maybe Teixeira thought it was a force play? Anyway, Betances struck out Jonathan Schoop, then Nick Markakis grounded to Stephen Drew at second base, who was able to catch Johnson wandering too far off third for the second out. That was big. Betances struck out Adam Jones to end the inning after walking Alejandro De Aza to load the bases. Two fastballs, one breaking ball, three swings and misses. Filthy.
Betances and David Robertson combined to walk the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth — one of the walks was intentional — but Robertson was able to wiggle out of it by striking out Schoop. It was a nine-pitch at-bat that included four foul balls with two strikes. Schoop put up a nice little battle. The two other outs came on a Nelson Cruz leadoff line drive to left and a Johnson pop-up to third base in foul territory. Betances and Robertson combined to put four guys on base in the eighth and ninth innings (all walks) after McCarthy put four men on base in the first seven innings.
Nine Scoreless Innings, The Bad Way
The Yankees put nine men on base in seven innings against Kevin Gausman but only one of the nine managed to reach third base. Their best chance to score against him came with two outs in the sixth inning, when Chris Young doubled to left and Drew walked to load the bases. Prado had singled to lead off the inning and I don’t think he would have scored on Young’s double even with a healthy hamstring. It was hit hard and De Aza played it quickly and cleanly. John Ryan Murphy leaned into a hanging slider and flew out to left field corner, in foul territory. He juuust missed it.
Once Gausman was out of the game, the Yankees couldn’t touch Baltimore’s bullpen. Almost literally couldn’t touch them. Andrew Miller struck out all three men he faced in the eighth and Darren O’Day struck out two of three in the ninth. Young popped up in foul territory along the first base side for the first out against O’Day. The Yankees struck out a dozen times in the first nine innings and only had three plate appearances with runners in scoring position (one walk, two outs) despite putting those nine guys on base against Gausman. I miss offense.
This game felt like it had entered “first team to homer wins” territory after Dellin’s escape job in the eighth inning, which usually puts the Yankees at a disadvantage, but not when they have Chris Young on the roster. For the second time in less than 24 hours, the Mets cast-off came up with a big go-ahead homerun on Friday afternoon, this one an 11th inning solo shot off Brad Brach. It wasn’t quite as dramatic as Thursday’s walk-off dinger, but it was still a huge homer. Chris Young, people. Baseball is weird sometimes.
With Betances and Robertson having already been used, Girardi gave the ball to Adam Warren for the 11th inning save opportunity. Warren, like Betances and Robertson in the ninth inning, loaded the bases without surrendering a hit. He walked Cruz, plunked J.J. Hardy with a pitch, then inexplicably walked pinch-hitter Steve Clevenger. The walk to Clevenger was just terrible. Ex-Yankees farmhand Jimmy Paredes jumped on Warren’s first pitch with two outs, lining it into the right field corner for a walk-off two-run single. Three relievers combined to walk six batters and hit another in 3.2 innings. Gross.
Prado, Drew, and Antoan Richardson all had two hits while Jacoby Ellsbury, Drew, and Murphy had one each. Brian McCann, Drew, and Richardson also drew walks. Teixeira and Brendan Ryan were the only starters who failed to reach base, which is par for the course these days. Richardson got picked off first base to end the seventh inning, which is less than ideal for a guy who was brought up to be the pinch-running specialist.
Believe it or not, this was the first time the Yankees and Orioles played nine scoreless innings and went to extras in Baltimore. Like, ever. It had never happened before, not with the Yankees. It did happen when they were still the New York Highlanders more than a century ago.
Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
MLB.com has the box score and video highlights, FanGraphs has some other game stats, and ESPN has the updated standings. The Yankees are currently 4.5 games back of the second wildcard spot but that’s going to change with all the games tonight. As of this moment, FanGraphs has the team’s postseason odds at 2.8%.
Let’s play two, he said with a shrug. The Yankees and Orioles will play the second game of this doubleheader at 7pm ET, so make sure you come back in a few hours. Bryan Mitchell will be making his first career start. Bud Norris is the scheduled starter for the O’s.
The Yankees will likely have a new voice running the farm system next year. Vice president of baseball operations Mark Newman is believed to be retiring after the season, reports George King. The team has not made an official announcement and both Newman and Brian Cashman declined to comment on the matter, so this isn’t final just yet.
Newman has been with the Yankees since 1988 and has been running the farm system for the last 15 years. He came under some scrutiny last season when Hal Steinbrenner was unhappy with the team’s player development system. King says there is some belief the Yankees would decline to renew Newman’s contract after the season even if he doesn’t decide to retire. Sounds like he’s a goner either way.
The Yankees tend to promote from within, so it’s no surprise that King says special assistant Trey Hillman is expected to replace Newman. Hillman, who managed the Royals from 2008-10, rejoined the Yankees this past offseason. He managed in the team’s farm system from 1990-2001 and has also spent time managing in Japan. Hillman spent this season working with minor leaguers, I believe.
In addition to Newman, the Yankees are also likely to cut ties with director of player development Pat Roessler after the season, according to King. He has been in that role for quite a while now. King says former Yankees hitting coach Gary Denbo will likely replace Roessler. Denbo has been with the team as a scouting and player development consultant since 2009.
The Yankees only made what they called “procedural” changes late last year after reviewing their farm system, and many fans (myself included) weren’t thrilled about that. Procedural changes are boring because we can’t actually see them at work. Replacing Newman and Roessler would be substantial changes to the player development system though. I have no idea how qualified Hillman and Denbo are for those positions, but they will bring new voices, and hopefully that leads to some production from the system. The Yankees definitely need it.
Update: Newman has already informed Hal Steinbrenner that he intends to retire, according to Mark Feinsand. Steinbrenner plans to conduct a “total evaluation” of the player development system that could result in a “complete overhaul” after the season. Feinsand says Denbo, Roessler, amateur scouting director Damon Oppenheimer, and player development staffer Jody Reed could all be replaced. Furthermore, Feinsand hears any replacements are expected to come from outside the organization “as the Yankee brass believes that new ideas and a new direction are needed.”
For more than a decade, a Yankees-Orioles series in September was relatively meaningless. The Yankees were atop the division every year and the Orioles were always in the cellar, so there wasn’t a whole lot on the line whenever these two clubs met late in the season.
The tables have turned in 2014. The O’s are the team sitting atop the AL East while the Yankees are floundering closer to the bottom than the top, trying their darnedest to remain relevant for another week or so. In fact, Baltimore can officially eliminate the Yankees from the division race with a sweep this weekend. Let’s try to avoid that, mmmkay? Here is the Orioles lineup and here is the Yankees lineup:
- CF Jacoby Ellsbury
- 3B Martin Prado
- DH Brian McCann
- 1B Mark Teixeira
- LF Chris Young
- 2B Stephen Drew
- C John Ryan Murphy
- SS Brendan Ryan
- RF Antoan Richardson
RHP Brandon McCarthy
Perfect weather for a doubleheader in Baltimore. Temperatures in the low-to-mid-70s and just a few clouds in the sky. This afternoon’s game will begin at 1:05pm ET and you’ll be able to watch on YES locally and MLB Network nationally, depending on where you live. Enjoy the game.
Update: As expected, the Yankees activated David Phelps (elbow) off the 15-day disabled list. They don’t have to make a corresponding roster move because of the expanded rosters … Brett Gardner (abdomen) did some running today and could be available for the second game of the doubleheader.
The Yankees are still mathematically alive in the division race, but realistically the Orioles have the AL East all wrapped up at this point. They’ve lapped the field. These two teams will play four games in three days this weekend — they’re making up the August 12th rainout with a doubleheader today — and I guess it’s worth noting the O’s can officially eliminate the Yankees from the division race with a sweep. The Bombers have lost eight of eleven games to the Orioles this season, including one win in five games in Camden Yards.
What Have They Done Lately?
Baltimore was off yesterday and they swept three games from the Red Sox in Fenway Park earlier this week. They’re on a serious roll, winning four straight, seven of nine, and eleven of 14. The O’s are 86-59 with a +94 run differential, the second and fourth best marks in the league, respectively. They are ten games up on the Blue Jays and 10.5 games up on the Yankees with a little more than two weeks left in the regular season.
Manager Buck Showalter’s offense averages 4.40 runs per game with a team 104 wRC+, so they are just a bit above the league average despite leading the world with 192 home runs. No other team is within even 20 of that total. They just don’t get enough guys on base in front of the sluggers. Both C Matt Wieters (Tommy John surgery) and 3B Manny Machado (knee surgery) are done for the year, and SS J.J. Hardy (98 wRC+) is day-to-day with a back issue. He received a cortisone injection on Wednesday and I guess that means he could return at some point this weekend.
The Orioles lineup is built around the power bats of OF Adam Jones (117 wRC+) and OF Nelson Cruz (136 wRC+), who have hit 25 and 39 homeruns, respectively. Cruz leads baseball in dingers. 1B Chris Davis (93 wRC+) is having a rough year following last season’s 53-homer breakout. He still has 26 homers though. Davis has been playing third base with Machado out and 1B Steve Pearce (147 wRC+) is filling in at first base. We all saw Pearce doing that when he was on the Yankees a few years ago, right? Right.
OF Nick Markakis (102 wRC+) leads off and OF Alejandro De Aza (91 wRC+) was a late-August waiver pickup to add depth. 2B Jonathan Schoop (67 wRC+) has crushed the Yankees all year and IF Ryan Flaherty (72 wRC+) has been filling in at short with Hardy hurt. Ex-Yankee Kelly Johnson (82 wRC+) comes off the bench to replace Davis for defense at third base, if you can believe that. C Caleb Joseph has taken over as the everyday catcher (93 wRC+) while C Nick Hundley (82 wRC+) joins OF David Lough (78 wRC+) on the bench. C Steve Clevenger, OF Quintin Berry, and ex-Yankees farmhand UTIL Jimmy Paredes are the September call-ups.
Game One Friday: RHP Brandon McCarthy (vs. BAL) vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (vs. NYY)
The Orioles sure have taken advantage of the 23-year-old Gausman’s minor league option this year, sending him up and down numerous times to manipulate the roster and add fresh arms. He’s been their heavily used sixth starter — the O’s have been using him to regularly give their other starters extra rest — and has a 3.83 ERA (3.40 FIP) in 17 starts and 96.1 innings this summer. Outside of a stellar homerun rate (0.47 HR/9 and 5.1 HR/FB%), Gausman’s peripherals are kinda unimpressive: 6.82 K/9 (18.0 K%), 3.27 BB/9 (8.6 BB%), and 41.2% grounders. Lefties (.321 wOBA) have hit him a bit harder than righties (.296 wOBA). Gausman lives in the mid-90s with his four-seam fastball, which he throws roughly 70% of the time even as a starter. A low-to-mid-80s split-changeup hybrid is his top secondary pitch, and he’ll also throw a few low-80s sliders as well. The Yankees scored one run in five innings against Gausman back in July.
Game Two Friday: TBA vs. RHP Bud Norris (vs. NYY)
Norris, 29, has probably been Baltimore’s most consistent starter this season. He has pitched to a 3.92 ERA (4.32 FIP) in 25 starts and 147 innings with average-ish peripherals across the board: 7.10 K/9 (18.8 K%), 2.69 BB/9 (7.1 BB%), 1.10 HR/9 (11.0 HR/FB%), and 42.6% grounders. Lefties (.330) have had more success against him than righties (.313), and he’s been better at home in Camden Yards (.300 wOBA) than on the road (.341 wOBA). Norris is basically a two-pitch pitcher with two other pitches. He relies heavily on his low-90s four-seamer and mid-80s slider, throwing them roughly 80% of the time combined, but he’ll also throw a handful of mid-80s changeups and low-90s two-seamers per start. New York has seen Norris twice this year, scoring one run and then three runs, both times in five innings.
The Yankees have not yet announced their starter for the second game of today’s doubleheader, but Joe Girardi did tell Chad Jennings that Bryan Mitchell has been “informed that he’s a definite possibility.” David Huff, Esmil Rogers, Chase Whitley, Adam Warren, and Preston Claiborne can all go two innings if needed, and David Phelps is expected to be activated off the disabled list today as well. The bullpen is full of September call-ups. They’ll cobble it together one way or another.
Saturday: RHP Shane Greene (vs. BAL) vs. RHP Miguel Gonzalez (vs. NYY)
A few weeks ago it looked like Gonzalez was a candidate to be dropped from the roster, but he’s pitched exceptionally well of late (four runs allowed in his last five starts total) and is now sitting on a 3.22 ERA (4.85 FIP) in 23 starts and 142.1 innings. He also made one relief appearance. The 30-year-old is another guy without strong peripheral stats: 6.39 K/9 (16.8 K%), 2.91 BB/9 (7.6 BB%), 1.39 HR/9 (12.0 HR/FB%), and 38.0% grounders. His platoon split is pretty small. Gonzalez’s money-maker is a split-changeup hybrid that sits in the low-80s. He sets it up with low-90s fastballs and also throws a low-80s slider and mid-70s curveball. The Yankees scored three runs in six innings against Gonzalez back in April, then he held them to two runs in eight innings in July.
Sunday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda (vs. BAL) vs. RHP Chris Tillman (vs. NYY)
Tillman, 26, was the Orioles’ Opening Day starter this year, and he has a 3.36 ERA (4.09 FIP) in 31 starts and 187.2 innings. Again, his strikeout (6.38 K/9 and 16.9 K%), walk (3.02 BB/9 and 8.0 BB%), homer (0.91 HR/9 and 8.4 HR/FB%), and ground ball (40.9%) numbers do not jump out at you. His platoon split is small but he has been much more effective at home (.274 wOBA) than on the road (.324 wOBA). Low-90s four-seamers and cutters set up Tillman’s mid-80s slider, low-80s changeup, and big-breaking mid-70s curveball. He’s lost about one mile an hour off his fastball for the second straight year, but he keeps getting outs. Tillman has started against the Yankees three times this season: six shutout innings in June, three runs in 6.2 innings in July, and two runs in seven innings in August.
Showalter’s setup man/closer combination features two lefties who can actually get righties out: LHP Andrew Miller (1.48 FIP) and LHP Zach Britton (3.13 FIP). RHP Darren O’Day (3.07 FIP) will also see setup work while RHP Tommy Hunter (3.19 FIP) has been more of a sixth/seventh inning type. Baltimore was off yesterday, so everyone is relatively fresh.
RHP Brad Brach (3.59 FIP), LHP Brian Matusz (4.22 FIP), RHP Ryan Webb (2.65 FIP), and RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (4.81 FIP) are the rest of the bullpen regulars. Ubaldo was demoted to mop-up duty a few weeks ago. Yikes. LHP T.J. McFarland, RHP Evan Meek, and LHP Joe Saunders are the extra September arms. Check out the status of the Yankees bullpen at our Bullpen Workload page. Camden Chat is the plate to go for the latest and greatest on the Orioles.
Update: Chris Davis has been suspended 25 games after testing positive for an amphetamine, MLB announced. Apparently he was taking Adderall with out approval. Either way, we won’t see him this weekend or when these two team play again in a week and a half.
Baseball, man. The Yankees went from staring a no-hitter and a humiliating loss in the face in the eighth inning to celebrating a huge walk-off win in the ninth. I don’t know if this was the best win of the season, but it was very satisfying and it certainly feels like the most improbable. The final score was 5-4.
All With Two Outs
For the first time in his ten starts this season, Michael Pineda allowed more than two runs on Thursday night. He served up three runs on one swing and it all happened with two outs. Wil Myers beat out an infield single with two outs in the fourth, Matt Joyce followed with a solid single to center, then Yunel Escobar unloaded on a hanging slider for a three-run homer into the first row in left field. I though it was gone off the bat. Kinda surprised me when it only landed in the first row. Either way, it was a three-run homer.
Escobar took Pineda deep for a solo homer in the seventh inning on a nearly identical pitch, a hanging slider that he hit out to left. This one had a little more distance than the first dinger. Pineda allowed four runs in 7.1 innings on Thursday, making this his worst non-pine tar start of the season. He struck out two and didn’t walk anyone because he never walks anyone — Pineda has walked four batters in 57.1 innings this year. That’s nuts. Giving up two homers to Yunel friggin’ Escobar is pretty annoying, but that’s life. Pineda was bound to have a dud eventually.
The Yankees did not get their first real base-runner until Brian McCann drew a one-out walk in the seventh inning. The only guy they put on base in the first six innings came when center fielder Kevin Kiermaier dropped Stephen Drew‘s fly ball leading off the third. It wasn’t a routine play, he did have to go back on the ball a bit, but he had a second to camp under it and the ball hit off his glove. Clearly an error. The Yankees didn’t even see their first three-ball count until there was one out in the fifth inning. Alex Cobb was mowing them down.
Mark Teixeira followed McCann’s walk with a walk of his own, which was the first sign Cobb was starting to lose it a bit with his pitch count approaching 90. Chase Headley struck out and Ichiro Suzuki popped out to end the mini-rally, however. The Yankees got their first base hit in the next inning, when Chris Young ripped a legitimate line drive double into the left-center field gap with one out in the eighth. Cobb left a fastball up and out over the plate, which is something a tiring pitcher tends to do. Not getting no-hit felt like a win all by itself. It really looked it would happen for a good while.
The team’s second hit of the night came one batter after Young broke up the no-hitter. The hobbling Martin Prado pinch-hit for Brendan Ryan and clubbed a two-run homer to left field to give the Yankees some life. Derek Jeter was hit by a pitch (more on that in a sec) and McCann reached on a James Loney error with two outs in eighth to bring the go-ahead run to the plate, but Teixeira struck out on three pitches to end the threat. That one is in the running for the worst at-bat of the year. Strike one looking, strike two looking, strike three swinging through a belt high fastball. End of rally.
Win It For Chase’s Chin
The game-winning ninth inning rally started the hard way. Headley took a Jake McGee fastball to the chin leading off the ninth inning and was down on the ground for several minutes. Eventually he walked off the field under his power. It’s always so scary whenever a player gets hit up around the face. Headley looked to be responsive but there was blood and you could already see some swelling. He’s heading to tests on his jaw. Scary.
The hit by pitch did spark the rally though, so it did not go for naught. Ichiro followed with an opposite field hustle double, putting the tying run in scoring position with no outs. Pinch-hitter Zelous Wheeler swung through three McGee fastballs for the first out, but then September hero Chris Young jumped all over a fastball up in the zone, sending the pitch out to left field for a three-run walk-off homer. He knew it was gone off the bat based on his rather aggressive bat flip. The Yankees went from losing 4-0 and being no-hit to walking off with a win in the span of three offensive outs. It was the first homer McGee allowed all season. This team, man.
Jeter took a Brad Boxberger fastball to the elbow in the eighth inning. It looked like it hit his elbow guard but he was still in a lot of pain. (Post-game x-rays came back negative.) Given his impending retirement and the fact that the season is almost over, I know I wasn’t the only one who suddenly worried his playing days were over because of some sort of fracture or whatever. Thankfully Jeter remained in the game and seemed to be fine. That was kinda scary for a minute.
Rich Hill bailed out Pineda in the seventh inning by striking out both Loney and Joyce with a runner on second base. There was an intentional walk of Myers mixed in there as well. The Yankees pulled someone named Chaz Roe out of the bleachers and he walked the leadoff guy in the ninth after getting ahead in the count 0-2. Josh Outman got his lefty out on a sac bunt and Shawn Kelley finished the inning with two ground balls. Five pitchers to get the last six outs.
Young’s homer was the team’s fourth walk-off homer of the season and second of the homestand — Headley walked off against Koji Uehara and the Red Sox one week ago. Carlos Beltran and McCann had the other walk-off homers. Headley, McCann, and Prado also had walk-off singles, giving the Yankees seven walk-off wins this year. They had seven last year as well, which surprised me. I can’t remember any of them right now. Drawing a blank.
Ichiro threw Loney out at the plate on Joyce’s single to end the sixth inning. It wasn’t a perfect throw by any stretch — it was a three or four hopper along the first base line — but McCann did a great job of catching the ball and lunging across the plate to tag the very slow Loney. A runner with even average speed would have been safe by a mile. Loney slid a little early and didn’t even touch the plate. Pretty big in hindsight.
Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
MLB.com is the place to go for the box score and video highlights. FanGraphs has some other stats and ESPN has the up to the minute standings. Both the Tigers and Mariners were off on Thursday, so the Yankees are now four games back of the second wildcard spot with 18 left to play. FanGraphs has their postseason odds at 2.5%.
The Yankees are off to Baltimore for a four-game weekend series with the Orioles. The two teams will make up the August 12th rainout as part of a doubleheader Friday. Brandon McCarthy and Kevin Gausman will be the pitching matchup for the first game.
10:28pm: Headley is heading for x-rays and additional tests on his jaw and will not leave with the team when they travel to Baltimore tonight.
10:07pm: Chase Headley left tonight’s game in the ninth inning after taking a Jake McGee fastball to the chin. He was down on the ground for several minutes and there was blood, but he seemed to be responsive. Team doctor Dr. Ahmad even came out to check on him, which you rarely see. Headley eventually walked off the field under his own power. Scary, scary stuff. Stay tuned for any updates. · (35) ·
For the fifth straight series, the Yankees have split the first two games. They’re sending Big Mike Pineda to the mound tonight as they try to win the rubber game for only the second time in those five series.
Pineda has emerged as the staff ace at this point but the Yankees just don’t score any runs for him. Among the 191 starters who have thrown at least 40 innings this season, Pineda ranks 191st in run support. Dead last. The Yankees average 2.22 runs when he’s in the game. I guess that’s why they’re 3-6 in his nine starts even though he has a 1.80 ERA. Here is the Rays lineup and here is the Yankees lineup:
- CF Jacoby Ellsbury
- SS Derek Jeter
- C Brian McCann
- 1B Mark Teixeira
- DH Chase Headley
- RF Ichiro Suzuki
- 2B Stephen Drew
- LF Chris Young
- 3B Brendan Ryan
RHP Michael Pineda
It’s cloudy, warm, and humid in New York right now, but there is no rain in the forecast. Tonight’s game will start just after 7pm ET and you can watch on YES locally and MLB Network nationally. Enjoy the game.
Not long before last night’s win over the Rays, the Yankees had to scratch Carlos Beltran from the starting lineup because of soreness in his right elbow. He has a bone spur in the elbow, as you know, and he’s been nursing the injury since early-May. It has limited him to mostly DH duty and last night was not the first time lingering soreness forced him to skip a game. As someone who’s dealt with a bone spur, I know they can be far from comfortable.
Both the Yankees and Beltran have said he will have surgery to remove the bone spur immediately after the season, though he has played through it these last few months in an effort to help the team remain in the postseason race. That hasn’t happened though. The Yankees have faded out of the postseason picture — FanGraphs puts their postseason odds at a 1.6% right now — and it will take a historic run to win a wildcard spot at this point. It’s not gonna happen.
Because the Yankees are a long shot to play October baseball, they should get a head start on the offseason and send Beltran for his surgery right now. They’ve said he will need two months of rest before he can resume baseball activities, which won’t interfere with his usual offseason routine, but we’ve seen CC Sabathia (elbow) and Derek Jeter (ankle) have offseason surgery in recent years only to need more time to recover than expected. Beltran is 37 years old, remember. A setback or a slow recovery wouldn’t be the most surprising thing in the world.
Now, this is not the same situation as Masahiro Tanaka. We already know Beltran is having surgery. It’s going to happen as soon as the season ends. The Yankees and Tanaka are actively trying to avoid his elbow surgery though, a surgery that is much more serious than what Beltran will go through. If Tanaka was definitely going to have his surgery, then yeah, I’d be all for sending him for it right now. That’s not the case though. It is the case with Beltran. We know he’s having the procedure. There’s a different dynamic.
In hindsight, the Yankees should have just sent Beltran for the surgery when he initially got hurt. Word got out that he had the bone spur on May 13th, and he hit a weak .192/.252/.365 (68 wRC+) over the next two months, the time he would have missed during his rehab. The Yankees wouldn’t have missed his bat at all and they would have had a healthy Beltran for the second half. Obviously it doesn’t work exactly like that — who knows how long it would have taken Beltran to get his timing back, etc. — but playing through the injury didn’t exactly help.
Between Brett Gardner (abdomen) and Martin Prado (hamstring), the Yankees are already short two regular position players. Beltran would make it three but that’s a minor issue at this point. Rosters are expanded and their postseason odds are remote. Chris Young and Ichiro Suzuki would get a few extra at-bats and maybe Antoan Richardson would get a start. Who cares. Ending Beltran’s season 19 games early won’t mean much of anything to the 2014 Yankees.
Joe Girardi told reporters last night that the team is considering shutting Beltran down for the season and sending him for the surgery, but they’re going to wait two of three days before making a final decision. That’s fine. Two or three days isn’t a big deal. I’m just happy they’re considering the option and not stubbornly looking to keep him in the lineup and in an effort to feign contention. Shutting Beltran down now won’t change anything with regards to where the team sits in the standings, but getting the two-week head start on the surgery would help put him in the best possible position to help the team in early-2015.
Prior to yesterday’s game, Mark Teixeira told reporters his nagging injuries and declining production this year are the result of having a restricted offseason following wrist surgery. “I’m really looking forward to getting stronger this offseason. That’s going to keep me healthier,” he said to Brendan Kuty. “Look, this year was not a year, health-wise, that I was happy about, so (a normal offseason) will keep me healthier and that’s going to improve performance, no doubt.”
Teixeira, 34, is down to .223/.322/.415 (106 wRC+) on the season, easily the worst full season of his career. I’m happy he thinks he can rebound with a normal offseason but I’m going to need to see it to believe it. Teixeira battled nagging injuries during the 2012 season — remember the cough? he also missed time with wrist and quad injuries that year — and he had a normal offseason before that. At this point I think he’s just an older player breaking down and seeing his production slip, which happens to most players in their mid-30s. I’d be thrilled if Teixeira rebounded in 2015. I just don’t see why I should think it will happen. · (69) ·
The Yankees have a doubleheader tomorrow, meaning there won’t be time for the mailbag in the morning. My options were either post the mailbag a day early or not at all, so I went with the former. I’ve got five questions this week and three are kinda long. Use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar if you’d like to send us anything throughout the week. The mailbag will still be posted Friday morning going forward.
Brian asks: Mentioned in the “thoughts” piece, but there are a number of SS available in free agency this year. Doesn’t Asdrubal Cabrera make the most sense as a guy who is only 28 years old?
Like I said in the post, Cabrera and every one of the other shortstop free agents comes with their pluses and minuses. Hanley Ramirez is a legitimate middle of the order hitter but he gets hurt all the time and is awful in the field. Stephen Drew is very good in the field but looks like he forgot how to hit. J.J. Hardy is also a legit shortstop but his power fell off big time this year. Jed Lowrie can hit when he’s not hurt or busy being a butcher in the field.
Cabrera, who will turn 29 in November, had two pretty big years with the Indians from 2011-12, putting up a 116 wRC+ with 41 homers across those two seasons. He slumped down to 94 wRC+ last year but has rebounded to hit .247/.311/.398 (101 wRC+) with 14 homers so far in 2014. The defensive stats hate Cabrera, consistently rating him as a below-average defender throughout his career. From what I’ve seen, he has a knack for the highlight play but will botch the routine play more than a big league shortstop should. (He’s playing second base for the Nationals right now, in deference to Ian Desmond at short.)
Asdrubal is a switch-hitter who has been better against righties (111 wRC+) than lefties (100 wRC+) over the last four years, and the split has been even more pronounced the last two years (106 vs. 80 wRC+). He does have power though, plus he doesn’t strike out much either (17.1%), a skill that is increasingly valuable in this offensively starved era. The defense is iffy and because he was traded at midseason, the Nationals won’t be able to make Cabrera a qualifying offer, so he won’t cost a draft pick to sign. I’m not sure Cleveland would have made him the offer anyway.
The fact that Cabrera is only 28 is nice, but I wouldn’t overvalue his age and the perception that he has more upside remaining. The guy has has played almost 1,000 games and has more than 4,000 plate appearances to his credit. We have a pretty good idea what he is at this point, and that’s an average-ish hitter with good power for the position but sketchy defense. It’s worth noting Cabrera is swinging at more pitches than every before these last two years — both in and out of the zone — so maybe he’ll get back to being a 115+ wRC+ hitter with some more plate discipline. He’s a viable shortstop candidate but I wouldn’t get too caught up in his age. The other guys are very good players in their own right.
J. Kelly asks: Even with a deep SS free agent class and that being the most likely route the Yanks go in search of a SS, who would be some potential trade targets to fill that spot?
The obvious big name shortstop trade target is Troy Tulowitzki, who as far as we know is not even going to be on the market. The Rockies have been very hesitant to deal him. Tulowitzki also just underwent surgery to repair a torn hip labrum, which is pretty scary. If he slows down at all the field, his value is going to take a huge hit. Even with his annual injuries, Tulo is the best shortstop in baseball and it’s not all that close. I’d take 100 games of him and 62 of a replacement level shortstop over any other shortstop in baseball. I just don’t see him being available.
The other big name shortstop trade candidate is going to be Jimmy Rollins, who is under contract next season for $11M after his option vested. He’s already said he’s open to accepting a trade under the right circumstances and I think coming to the Yankees to replace Derek Jeter seems like something right up Jimmy’s alley. He has quietly had strong year, hitting .243/.323/.394 (102 wRC+) with 17 homers, 28 steals, and his usually strong defense. I know he’s an old guy and the Yankees should avoid old guys at all costs for reasons, but trading for one year of Rollins is not a bad idea if the free agent prices are through the roof in my opinion. Not at all.
Other than those two, I suppose the Tigers could shop Jose Iglesias if they’re happy with Eugenio Suarez at short. Iglesias hasn’t played all year due to stress fractures in his shins, so his value is down. (I don’t see the point in trading for a glorified Brendan Ryan when you already have the real Brendan Ryan.) Everth Cabrera seems to be on the way out with the Padres, the Cubs have a bunch of young shortstops to offer if you’re willing to give them an ace, the Mariners might move Brad Miller or Chris Taylor if they really believe in one or the other, and I’m sure the Mets would give Ruben Tejada away at this point. That looks to be about it for the shortstop trade market, though surprise names always pop up every winter.
Travis asks: Have you heard anything linking the Yankees to Korean SS Jung-Ho Kang? Has good defense and power from right side.
Outside of a recent Nick Cafardo report saying the Cardinals had interest at one point, there hasn’t been anything linking the Yankees or any other team to Kang. The 27-year-old is hitting .360/.463/.757 with 33 doubles and 38 homers in 107 games for the Nexen Heroes this year, easily the best season of his very good career. Here are the obligatory stats (the obligatory video is above):
Kang is said to be a true shortstop with strong defense, and his best offensive tool is his big power from the right side. Supposedly he’s a dead fastball hitter who struggles against good breaking pitches, which would be a major concern if true. Remember, Kang is playing in Korea, where the level of competition is even lower than Japan.
I remember reading something a few years ago that pointed it almost all the successful position players to come over from Asia were outfielders because the game on the infield is simply too fast and too big of an adjustment. Akinori Iwamura is the most notable recent Asian import to make it work on the infield in MLB, and he was nothing more than a league average player for two and a half years. Others like Kaz Matsui and Tsuyoshi Nishioka flopped despite being high-profile pickups and stars in Japan. That doesn’t mean Kang will be a bust, but it’s something to keep in mind.
I don’t know nearly enough about Kang right now to say whether the Yankees should have interest in him, but I’m sure they’ll do their due diligence. He’s a shortstop and he has power, two things the Yankees desperately need. Reports say he will be definitely posted this winter, and MLB’s posting agreement still uses the old posting rules. It’s a blind bid for the right to negotiate with the player for 30 days. The release fee nonsense Masahiro Tanaka went through only applies to Japanese players.
I like Reynolds. He’s a potentially useful player if you look at what he is instead of focusing on the strikeouts. Reynolds went into last night’s game hitting .196/.288/.392 (87 wRC+) with 21 home runs, and it’s worth noting his offensive production has declined from a 116 wRC+ in 2011 to a 109 wRC+ in 2012 to a 95 wRC+ last year to an 87 wRC+ this year. He can split time at the two corner infield spots and DH on occasion. The Yankees have sorely lacked power and a true backup first baseman this year, two roles Reynolds would fill. Would I give him 600 plate appearances? No way. But if he would take a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training and try to win a 250-300 plate appearance bench job, great. I wouldn’t guarantee him multiple millions or anything. Remember, Reynolds turned the Yankees down last offseason to sign with the Brewers because they offered more playing time.
James asks: Obviously offense is down around the league, and many chalk it up to lack of PED’s, shifts, and strong bullpens. It also seems that the strike zone is much bigger than it used to be, the low and away pitch just off the plate often gets called, along with just below the knees. Any statistical proof of an increased strike zone from this year compared to the last few seasons?
Yes, absolutely. Jon Roegele put together a great PitchFX analysis of the strike zone back in January, showing that the zone is shrinking on the corners but getting bigger at the knees. A few days ago Jeff Sullivan showed the bottom of the zone has continued to get bigger this season. It’s easier to get a strike at the knees now than ever before — pitching coach Larry Rothschild made sure to emphasize the low strike in Spring Training — and I think that has absolutely contributed to the decline in offense around the league. Those pitches are hard enough to hit as it is, and now batters can’t let them go because they’re being called strike.