River Avenue Blues

Yankeemetrics: Paxton, Gardner punish Red Sox (April 16-17)

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(NJ.com)

April 16: Paxton earns his pinstripes
For the first time in more than a quarter-century, a Red Sox-Yankees series opened with both teams’ fanbases seemingly in near-panic mode. With the Red Sox at 6-11 and the Yankees at 6-9 in the standings on Tuesday morning, this was the first time since the final weekend of the 1992 season that the two rivals matched up with both teams at least three games under .500. To put that into perspective, Derek Jeter was three months removed from being drafted and had just completed his first pro season with the Gulf Coast Yankees and Greensboro Hornets.

Behind a brilliant ace-like performance from James Paxton and a dinger-happy explosion from the lineup, the Yankees routed the Red Sox in the first game, 8-0. It was their second shutout of the season — last year the Yankees didn’t get their first shutout of the season until May 1.

The offensive star was Mike Tauchman, who had a career night with a double, homer and four RBI. Entering the game, he had zero homers and two RBI over 87 plate appearances in his first 61 big-league games. Congrats, Mr. T (ok, bad nickname), you earned our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series: Tauchman is one of just three left-fielders to drive in at least four runs against the Red Sox in the last 20 seasons. The other guys? Hideki Matsui (July 25, 2004) and Alfonso Soriano (August 16, 2013). And, of course, we have this Fun Fact:

Paxton was the difference-maker, though, aggressively attacking the Red Sox with his electric four-seamer and sharp cutter. He tossed eight scoreless innings with just two hits allowed and 12 strikeouts. How good was his gem?

  • First pitcher in Yankees history to strike out at least a dozen batters and allow no more than two hits against the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium (old or new).
  • Third Yankee pitcher in the Divisional Era (since 1969) with 12-or-more strikeouts and no runs allowed against the Red Sox, joining Mike Mussina on Sept. 2, 2001 (the Carl Everett game!) and Andy Pettitte on Sept. 16, 1997.
  • Fourth Yankee left-hander ever to allow no runs and two or fewer hits while striking out at least 12 guys in a game. The others were David Wells (vs A’s in 2001), John Candelaria (vs White and A’s in 1988) and Al Downing (vs Orioles in 1967 and White Sox in 1963).
(Newsday)

April 17: Gardy Party in Bronx
Yankees capped off their first series win at Yankee Stadium and a fun mini-sweep of their rivals with a thrilling comeback win, 5-3. The victory was made even sweeter as it pushed the Red Sox further into the American League basement. The only teams with a worse record than the Red Sox (6-13) this season are the Marlins (4-15) and Reds (5-12).

J.A. Happ put the Yankees in an early 3-0 hole, coughing up two homers in the first two innings. He settled down after that rough start, though, allowing just three hits and no runs over the next four-plus innings. For the first time this season, he gave the Yankees length and pitched into the seventh after not completing the fifth inning in any of his first three outings.

Brett Gardner — who entered Wednesday hitless in 11 at-bats with runners in scoring position this season — rescued the Yankees from a bitter loss when he drilled a fastball for a grand slam in the seventh inning, flipping a 3-1 deficit into a 5-3 advantage. The pitch was a gourmet cheese-stuffed meatball served on a silver platter to Gardy:

He’s now is this select group of Yankees that have terrorized the Red Sox with late-game-changing slammer:

His fourth career grand slam was also his 100th career home run, but it was no ordinary homer. It came on an 0-2 pitch, just the third time in his career he’s gone deep down 0-2 (also in 2011 and 2009). Only six other Yankees have mashed a grand slam in an 0-2 count (pitch data available since 1988): Russell Martin (2012), John Flaherty (2004), Enrique Wilson (2002), Glenallen Hill (2000), Bernie Williams (2000) and Tino Martinez (1999). If you could have guessed the names on that list, you deserve an honorary plaque in Monument Park.

But perhaps most impressive for Gardner is this note: he is the second player in franchise history to compile at least 100 dingers and 250 steals in their pinstriped careers. You might have heard of the other guy — Mr. Derek Jeter.

Thoughts after the Yankees sweep the Red Sox

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(Presswire)

Good series? Good series. The Yankees swept two games from the Red Sox this week — do the Red Sox look awful or what? geez — and will open a four-game series against the Royals tonight. Please please please mop the floor with them this weekend. Here are a some assorted thoughts.

1. We’re finally starting to see the Clint Frazier who topped prospect lists and was the fifth overall pick in the 2013 draft. Maybe it’s not fair to say “finally.” He is only 24 and he was essentially a Double-A player when the Yankees acquired him. Injuries got in the way and sometimes there are bumps in the road before a young player establishes himself in the big leagues. Frazier had three hits last night and is hitting .333/.347/.622 (153 wRC+) in an admittedly small 49 plate appearance sample, plus he’s having quality at-bats and showing great overall confidence at the plate. He’s dangerous and he knows it. His 22.0% chase rate is quite a bit better than the 29.1% league average, and while it hasn’t led to walks yet (4.1%), he’s swinging at the right pitches. That’s the most important thing. Frazier isn’t chasing pitcher’s pitches out of the zone and he’s taking good aggressive swings at pitches over the plate. No, he (probably) won’t hit .333 all season and yes, he’ll (probably) slip into an ugly slump at some point, but that’s part of baseball. Right now, Frazier is taking advantage of the opportunity given to him when Giancarlo Stanton landed on the injured list. Once guys start getting healthy (man I hope that’s soon), there’s no way Clint can be dropped into a part-time role or even sent back to Triple-A. He is coming into his own and the Yankees owe it to themselves to keep running him out there, and I fully expect them to do exactly that. (Add in Justus Sheffield being traded for James Paxton, and the Andrew Miller trade had a real big impact in the Red Sox series.)

2. This Luis Severino injury stuff is downright Metsian. Long story short: Brian Cashman said last week the lat strain is a new injury Severino suffered while going through his rehab work for the shoulder inflammation, yet yesterday Severino said he first felt the lat pain and shoulder pain simultaneously back in Spring Training. Cashman told James Wagner that Severino said he had discomfort in his lat when he first complained about his shoulder, though the MRI at the time showed only the shoulder inflammation and no lat strain. It wasn’t until last week that tests showed the lat strain, indicating it is a new injury. Who knows what really happened, but how could anyone believe anything the Yankees say about injuries right now? They miss constantly on return timetables. There are communication issues here, if not between the player and the team, that at least between the team and the fan base. Fairly or unfairly, there are questions about the training staff right now given all the injuries, and this Severino nonsense sure as heck won’t make them look any better. The injuries are bad enough. The botched timetables and conflicting messages make it all worse. It’s hard to believe there’s a situation like this involving the staff ace. There should never be even the slightest hint of miscommunication between the team and a player as important as Severino. Ridiculous.

3. This has to be it for Greg Bird, right? This is now four straight seasons with poor performance and/or significant injury. Bird has been healthy and productive for maybe six weeks total in the last four years (September and October 2017) and what’s the upside, exactly? He is a bat-only first baseman who, fortunately for him, is on the heavy side of the platoon. What are the odds Bird gets healthy and becomes, say, Matt Adams? I don’t think they’re very good at this point, and if the upside is Matt Adams, then I don’t see enough of a reason to keep trying to make this work. There’s no need to dump Bird right now — the Yankees can stash him on the injured list this year and even hang on to him through the offseason because his arbitration raise doen’t figure to be all that large — but eventually the Yankees will run out of 60-day injured list candidates and 40-man roster space will be tight, and Bird should not be safe when that time comes. You can’t say the Yankees haven’t given him opportunities. They have given him plenty of chances to become the first baseman of the future and it just hasn’t happened. No matter how much you like a player — the Yankees love Bird — at some point you have to admit it’s just not working, and move on. After a four major injuries (and three surgeries) and a .194/.287/.388 (80 wRC+) batting line in over 500 plate appearances the last four years, the time to admit it’s not working with Bird has arrived. Forget about him as a potential long-term piece — Bird will be only two years away from free agency after the season, so I’m not sure it would be fair to call him a long-term piece anyway — and move on when 40-man space is required. If he goes somewhere else and lives up to his potential, so be it. The Yankees tried and tried and tried. It’s hard to believe Bird’s leash was this long, really.

4. I don’t have a preference about how the Yankees replace Bird in the lineup. They’re so decimated by injuries right now that there is no good or obvious solution. Play Mike Ford? Fine. Stick with Mike Tauchman and see what he does with regular at-bats? Works for me too. I mean, what are the other options at this point? Force me to pick one and I’d go with Tauchman. He’s a year and a half older than Ford, sure, but he can actually play the field and I’m not convinced Ford is the superior hitter. I know he got off to a great start this year, but Ford hit .253/.327/.433 (114 wRC+) while repeating Triple-A last season. That kinda stinks. Tauchman hit .323/.408/.571 (153 wRC+) while repeating Triple-A last year. Are we sure Ford is a better hitter? I mean really sure? I don’t think it’s so clear that Ford should go into the lineup no questions asked. Given the state of the roster, I think giving Tauchman an extended look is completely justifiable. I don’t expect much either way. If the Yankees want to go with Ford, fine. If they want to go with Tauchman, that’s fine too. With any luck one of these guys will force the issue and run away with a lineup spot. (Or the Yankees could just trade for Justin Smoak.)

Tauchman. (Presswire)

5. Gio Gonzalez will make his fourth and likely final start with Triple-A Scranton tomorrow — an ugly first start skewed his numbers (15 IP, 19 H, 10 R, 10 ER, 6 BB, 19 K), though he’s been fine the last two times out — and he can opt out the following day. Brendan Kuty says Gonzalez bought all his teammates sneakers and an arcade game for the clubhouse, plus he’s taken the team out to dinner several times, so that’s cool. He hasn’t been sulking in Scranton. I honestly have no idea what the Yankees will do though. On one hand, the Yankees are in no position to give up pitching depth. You’d think they could find room for him as at least a sixth starter/swingman type. On the other hand, Gonzalez’s contract will pay him $300,000 per start (!). That is bonkers. Add in the luxury tax and this is a $396,000 per start pitcher, and I’m not sure the Yankees could expect him to be even league average in the AL East. The Yankees print money and increasing payroll shouldn’t stand in the way of adding anyone to the roster, but we know it does sometimes. Last year the Yankees traded Erik Kratz prior to his opt-out date and I suppose they could do the same with Gonzalez, but is there even a market for him? He was unsigned into late March and had to take a minor league deal. Any team could’ve had him then. I’m not sure a team is giving up something of value for him now. My guess — and this is a complete guess — is the Yankees and Gonzalez will mutually agree to push the opt-out back to April 30th. That equals another two Triple-A starts, giving the Yankees more time to evaluate him and Gonzalez more time to showcase himself. That said, only one other team has to show interest in Gonzalez for him to use the opt-out. I really have no idea what’ll happen. Nothing would surprise me. Opting out, keeping him, pushing the opt-out back. We’ll find out soon enough.

6. I’m going to let you in on a little blog secret: We recycle content. Like, all the time. Shocking, I know. Chances are any feature you see on the site now was run in a similar form in previous years. For example, I’ve previewed potential non-roster Spring Training invitees each of the last three years (2017, 2018, 2019). Whenever the Yankees struggle like they’ve struggling early this season, I usually run a “easy moves the Yankees can make to improve” post. Here’s one from 2015. (Still can’t believe they didn’t use David Carpenter in high-leverage situations, you guys.) I mention this because, earlier this week, I was thinking about a similar post for the 2019 Yankees, then I realized there are no moves to make! The Yankees have been so decimated by injuries that they’ve already made pretty much all the moves they can make. Replacing Brett Gardner with Frazier would’ve been prime “easy move to improve the Yankees” fodder and that’s not possible now. Injuries have pushed both guys into the lineup. I suppose the Yankees could give Joe Harvey some higher leverage (but not high leverage) innings until Chad Green straightens himself out? Maybe keep running Tauchman out there and see what happens when he gets regular at-bats? Heck, Ford has even been called up to replace Bird. The Yankees are pretty much at their limit with internal moves that could make them a better team. Even if they wanted to make some changes, I’m not sure they can. They’re already scraping the bottom of the barrel internally. I’m not sure how this team could survive another injury given their current situation.

7. Non-Yankees thought: Wow do the Red Sox look terrible. Last year they found ways to win games day after day after day. This year they’re finding ways to lose them. The rotation has been generally terrible and Chris Sale looks nothing like the guy we’ve seen the last few years. Mookie Betts looks all out of sorts. He’s hitting .200/.305/.371 (78 wRC+) and that seems impossible even in a small sample. Last year, any time a team got Betts out, it felt like luck. He’s impossible to pitch to when he’s right. My Red Sox fan friends tell me they mismanaged some injuries, specifically rushing Steve Pearce and Dustin Pedroia back from rehab, and designating Blake Swihart for assignment screams panic move. Boston is 6-13 and already nine games back in the loss column. FanGraphs says their postseason odds slipped from 90.3% on Opening Day to 51.0% after last night’s game. That is an enormous drop in three weeks time. By no means am I counting the Red Sox out in the AL East race. Not a chance. I’m just saying things are going real bad for them right now. That golden touch from last season is long gone.

Yankees 5, Red Sox 3: A Gardy party and a two-game sweep

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As a friend of RAB who shall remain nameless pointed out tonight, the Red Sox have suffered every kind of loss imaginable this season except a heartbreaking blown lead in the late innings. Brett Gardner and the Yankees were happy to oblige Wednesday night. Gardner’s grand slam gave his team a 5-3 win and the two-game series sweep. It was only two games, yeah, but that was sorely needed sweep. The Yankees are within a game of .500 at 8-9.

(Presswire)

Let The Gardy Party Begin
Nathan Eovaldi went into Wednesday’s game sporting an 8.40 ERA (9.20 FIP) on the young season. His overall pitching line was so bad it’s hard to believe: 15 IP, 18 H, 14 R, 14 ER, 10 BB, 10 K, 6 HR. Yikes! So, naturally, Eovaldi picked the Yankees apart on Wednesday, holding them to one unearned run on three hits and a walk in six innings. He fanned six. Just like last year, Eovaldi shoved against his former club.

On the bright side, the Yankees did force Eovaldi to throw 104 pitches in those six innings, so they were going to have three innings to make noise against the Red Sox bullpen. They only needed one. Brandon Workman came in to face the 6-7-8-9 hitters in the seventh inning and three of ’em reached base. Clint Frazier smacked a single to center, Mike Tauchman walked, and then Austin Romine walked to load the bases with one out.

That same bottom of the lineup blew the Yankees’ best (only) chance to score against Eovaldi earlier in the game. They had runners on second and third with one out in the fourth inning, then Tauchman struck out and Gio Urshela grounded out to strand the runners. After the Frazier single in the seventh, it was easy to get those “the bottom of the order is going to blow this” feelings again. Instead, they loaded the bases. Do the damn thing Gardy:

Good gravy what an awful pitch. I mean, it had good velocity at 97 mph, but that’s an 0-2 fastball right down the middle. Put it on a damn tee. Even late career Gardner can put a charge into that pitch and short porch it. That’s what the Red Sox get for walking guys like Tauchman and Romine in the late innings. Those walks were gift baserunners and the Yankees took advantage. Brett Gardner forever.

Happ Grinds It Out
For the first time his season, J.A. Happ was able to complete five innings. He completed 6.1 innings, in fact. Only allowed two homers in the process as well. (He’s up 6-4 in his homer race with Aaron Judge at the moment.) Is it bad that Happ’s best start of the season (best start of the season by a mile, no less) was just okay? Yes. Yes it is bad. Happ has allowed a first inning run(s) in all four starts and he’s been scored upon in nine of his 19 innings.

The Yankees were down 1-0 in the blink of an eye and 3-0 before you even realized they were down 1-0. J.D. Martinez smacked a solo home in the first inning and noted terrible hitter Christian Vazquez (career 66 wRC+) short-porched a two-run home run in the second. Happ is up to six homers in 18.2 innings this year. Add in Spring Training and it’s 12 homers in 30 innings in the 2019 calendar year. That’s a 3.60 HR/9. Seems bad.

To Happ’s credit, he did settle down following the Vazquez homer, retiring 13 of the final 17 batters he faced. First time through the lineup: 3-for-9 (.333) with two homers and one strikeout. Thereafter: 2-for-15 (.133) with one walk and three strikeouts. Huh. After giving up two homers on four-seamer fastballs, Happ basically stopped throwing the pitch. Here’s his pitch selection as the game progressed:

The black dots (four-seamer) became less frequent as the game went on. Going into the game opponents were hitting .313 with a .500 ISO (!) against Happ’s four-seamer this season. (The league averages are .264 and .220, respectively.) A fastball heavy pitcher with a bad fastball is, uh, not good. After two more home runs Wednesday night, it was time for Happ to put the four-seamer in his pocket.

Happ’s final line: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 2 HR on 84 pitches. The Craig Biggio of pitching lines. Obviously good, but … that’s it? Happ and the Yankees have to hope Wednesday’s start, specifically his final 4.1 innings, is a sign something clicked. The Yankees re-signed Happ to be a solid mid-rotation innings guy. This was the first time this year he kinda sorta lived up to it.

Otto & Chappie
I gotta say, I didn’t love Aaron Boone going to Tommy Kahnle with a runner on second and one out in the top of the seventh. The Yankees were only down two, so the game was still well within reach (obviously), and I thought that was an Adam Ottavino spot. Get those outs and keep the game close, you know? Especially since Ottavino had only pitched once in the last eight days. (Remember when we were all worried about his workload?)

Boone went to Kahnle though, and he got those two outs to end the inning. That set things up perfectly in the eighth inning after Gardner’s grand slam. Ottavino vs. Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and J.D. Martinez. All righties. That’s the matchup the Yankees want (or should want, anyway). Two quick outs then single, single, walk to load the bases with two outs. Gah. It’s too early for stressful baseball.

Fortunately, Eduardo Nunez isn’t very good, and he chased a first pitch slider out of the zone and flew out routinely to end the threat. Just that like, the inning was over. Bit of a mess, but three outs are three outs. Aroldis Chapman went 1-2-3 in the ninth on 12 pitches. Believe it or not, it was his first 1-2-3 inning against the Red Sox since his first appearance against them as a Yankee back in 2016. Boston had his number the last few years.

It was a weird one. (Presswire)

Leftovers
Two singles and double for Frazier. The double was down the line to score a run in the fourth inning. Clint’s sitting on a .333/.347/.622 (153 wRC+) batting line at the moment. Once he really settles in and starts drawing walks, he’s going to be a force. Meanwhile, Yankees not named Frazier had two hits total. Luke Voit doubled in the first and Gardner had the grand slam. Not many hits overall, but boy did the Yankees make them count.

Voit’s double extended his on-base streak to 28 games. Tommy Pham’s streak came to an end at 48 games tonight, so Voit now owns the longest active on-base streak in baseball. It is the longest by a Yankee since Aaron Judge had a 32-gamer back in 2017. Voit’s not hitting like he did late last year (doing that again was not going to be easy), but he is doing a little something each night. His .213/.333/.443 (113 wRC+) batting line is on the rise.

And finally, the grand slam was the 100th home run of Gardner’s career. He’s the first Yankee to hit a grand slam for his 100th homer since … Jacoby Ellsbury in 2017. Remember Ellsbury’s grand slam in that huge comeback win against the Orioles? That was it. I never would’ve guessed Gardner would get to 100 big league homers back when he was a prospect. Considering he had to walk on in college, he’s had a hell of a career.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
For the box score and video highlights, go to MLB.com. ESPN has the updated standings. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page and here’s the win probability graph:


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
This quick little two-game series is over and the Royals come to the Bronx for a four-game series next. Can the Yankees win a series against a rebuilding team? I hope so! Domingo German and Homer Bailey will be the starting pitchers for Thursday night’s opener. That’s another 6:35pm ET start.

DotF: Loaisiga makes Triple-A debut, Estrada stays hot in loss

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Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders Game One (5-3 loss to Lehigh Valley in seven innings) makeup of yesterday’s rainout

  • SS Thairo Estrada: 2-4, 1 R — 11-for-31 (.355) with two doubles and two homers in his last seven games
  • LF Trey Amburgey: 0-4, 1 R, 1 K
  • C Ryan Lavarnway: 3-3
  • RHP Jonathan Loaisiga: 5 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 HR, 5/3 GB/FB — 48 of 83 pitches were strikes (58%) … believe it or not, this was his first career Triple-A start … the Yankees called him up straight from Trenton last year and he never made it to Scranton after being sent down because he got hurt
  • LHP Rex Brothers: 2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HR, 1/1 GB/FB — 22 of 38 pitches were strikes (58%) … 8/2 K/BB in 5.2 innings thus far

[Read more…]

Game 17: Complete the sweep

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(Elsa/Getty)

It doesn’t get much better than last night’s breezy 8-0 win, huh? Another one of those tonight would be just dandy. Sweeping Boston in this two game mini-series would alleviate some of the early season frustrations.

After punishing Chris Sale last night, the Yankees will face another one of Boston’s scuffling starters: Nathan Eovaldi. Ex-Yank Nasty Nate has been nowhere nearly as good as he was for the Red Sox last season and has coughed up six homers in just fifteen innings this year.

On the flipside, it hasn’t been much better for J.A. Happ, who counters for the Yanks. He finished last year with a dud against Boston in the postseason and now he’s struggled out of the gate. Happ has yet to record more than 13 outs in a start this season and has surrendered four dingers in just over twelve innings of work. If recent trends hold for both starters, we won’t have a repeat of last night’s two hour, twenty three minute affair. Here are tonight’s lineups:

New York Yankees
1. CF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Luke Voit
4. SS Gleyber Torres
5. 2B DJ LeMahieu
6. DH Clint Frazier
7. LF Mike Tauchman
8. 3B Gio Urshela
9. C Austin Romine

LHP J.A. Happ

Boston Red Sox
1. RF Mookie Betts
2. SS Xander Bogaerts
3. LF J.D. Martinez
4. 1B Steve Pearce
5. DH Mitch Moreland
6. 2B Dustin Pedroia
7. 3B Rafael Devers
8. C Christian Vazquez
9. CF Jackie Bradley Jr.

RHP Nathan Eovaldi

It’s been a gorgeous day in New York and that’ll continue into this evening. No rain to worry about interfering with the game. First pitch is at 6:35pm ET and you can watch on YES locally and ESPN nationally. Enjoy the ballgame.

OOTP Simulation: The Official RAB 2018-2019 Offseason Plan

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(Presswire)

As the end of RAB draws near, I figured I would give an ode to one of the site’s annual features: the Official RAB Offseason Plan. Back in November, Mike published the plan to fill the roster for 2019. I’m giving it life in an alternate universe: Out of the Park Baseball 20.

As a refresher, let’s compare his offseason plan to what actually occurred:

What the Yankees actually did looks a whole lot different than what Mike came up with. Two more things to note about how I set this up, aside from making the aforementioned roster changes. One, the only injuries the OOTP team started with were the ones the team already had entering spring training (like Didi Gregorius, for instance). That means Luis Severino, Aaron Hicks, et. al. all got a new lease on life. Second, I let the computer take total control after the I set the roster up. Didn’t want any of my personal input to be included whatsoever. Now, time for the simulation.

By the numbers

This hypothetical club was a juggernaut in OOTP’s world. It scored a remarkable 888 runs and hit 272 home runs to shatter the record the team set last season. The pitching was good, but the bullpen was not as great as one might think (9th in reliever ERA in the American League). Player statistics are embedded below and here is a link to the Google sheet as well.

I think the real life Yankees have already spent more days on the injured list than this pretend team did. Other than the pre-existing injuries, only Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Raimel Tapia, Gary Sanchez, Patrick Corbin, and Hyun-Jin Ryu spent time on the shelf.

The hits

Corbin proved to be a home run even though he missed a few starts. The lefty accumulated 4 WAR in just over 150 innings pitched. He also recorded a 2.67 postseason ERA in four starts, winning three of those ballgames. The other wise free agent decision was to bring back David Robertson. Houdini had a 2.78 ERA and his typical high strikeout rate.

Tapia was a successful acquisition as well, though his season came to a bitter end. After hitting .296/.325/.455 (107 OPS+), the outfielder ruptured his MCL in September, which ended his season. Another trade acquisition, Jurickson Profar, wound up being a good get too. The jack of all trades infielder netted 2.5 WAR and a 111 OPS+.

The misses

Wei-Yin Chen was an unmitigated disaster. That said, I wouldn’t blame Mike for it. Rather, the fault belongs to the computer for letting him pitch so much. Chen posted a 6.91 ERA in more than 80 innings which made him two wins below replacement level.

I don’t know if it’s fair to call the next two misses, but they weren’t necessarily good. Neil Walker was actually cut loose in May, though he only had six plate appearances to his name. He had an emergency appendectomy early in the season and was ultimately released. Ryu was decent, pitching to a 101 ERA+ (4.66 ERA). He suffered a severe ankle sprain and missed a big chunk of the season to boot.

Better off elsewhere?

As you can tell by the length of the “out” list, there are a number of current Yankees who played for other squads in the OOTP universe. Let’s see how they did:

  • Brett Gardner (Cleveland): 512 PA, 79 OPS+, 1.3 WAR
  • James Paxton (Seattle): 211 IP, 109 ERA+, 3.3 WAR
  • Michael King (Texas, did not play in majors)
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (Miami): 60 PA, 83 OPS+, 0.1 WAR
  • Luis Cessa (Miami): 15.1 IP, 58 ERA+, 0.2 WAR
  • Jonathan Loaisiga (Colorado): 20 IP, 82 ERA+, 0.1 WAR
  • Troy Tulowitzki (Texas and San Diego): 448 PA, 73 OPS+, 0.9 WAR
  • DJ LeMahieu (Angels and Minnesota): 623 PA, 107 OPS+, 3.0 WAR
  • Mike Tauchman (Colorado): 651 PA, 108 OPS+, 3.0 WAR
  • Zack Britton (Dodgers): 29 IP, 149 ERA+, 0.0 WAR
  • Gio Gonzalez (White Sox, Dodgers, Cincinnati): 155.1 IP, 99 ERA+, 2.7 WAR
  • J.A. Happ (Baltimore and San Diego): 187 IP, 109 ERA+, 1.8 WAR
  • Adam Ottavino (Washington): 67.1 IP, 152 ERA+, 0.5 WAR

Standings and postseason results

The faux Yankees won 99 games and secured a Wild Card berth. Yes, the Red Sox were division champions once again, winning 104 games. Midseason acquisitions of Brian McCann and Justin Smoak helped put them over the top while their bullpen was surprisingly good. This year, however, the Yankees got the last laugh in the division series. In a rematch of last season, the Yankees toppled the Red Sox in five games. To backtrack for just a second, the Bombers knocked off the Angels in the Wild Card round before facing Boston.

The championship series was yet another rematch, this time against the team that eliminated the Yankees in 2017. It took seven games, but the Yankees outlasted the Astros to move on to the World Series. Didi Gregorius was the series MVP. He swatted three taters and reached base at a .516 clip. Nice to get revenge against the two franchises that knocked them out in the two seasons prior.

In the World Series, the Yankees took on the Rockies. Just as we all expect to happen! After an 11-1 victory in game one, things were looking good. Most notably, Giancarlo Stanton drove in five runs and hit his seventh (!) postseason home run. Things went downhill from there: the Yanks lost the next four games and thereby the series. Three of those losses were by one run and the bullpen blew two games. Chad Green coughed up the lead in game three and David Robertson did the same in game four. In the fifth and decisive game, Corbin tossed his only stinker of the postseason. The Rockies took home their first championship.

Awards

A few Yankees took home awards. Aroldis Chapman was named the American League’s best reliever. The lefty tallied 36 saves, 91 strikeouts, and a 2.35 ERA in 57.1 innings. No Yankees took home Gold Gloves, but a couple won Silver Slugger awards. Gary Sanchez took home the reigns at catcher after a monster season. 41 home runs for a backstop will do that. Meanwhile, Giancarlo Stanton won as designated hitter. He blasted 53 dingers. Somewhat humorously, Aaron Boone won Manager of the Year. The Cy Young award went to Chris Sale, but Luis Severino finished in second.

Leftovers

You might be wondering about what trades the AI made midseason, if any. There are a myriad of deals that went down around the league, but the Yankees only made one trade: Austin Romine for Mark Canha. Why? I don’t really know.

So, would you sign up for a World Series loss right now if it meant postseason vengeance against Boston and Houston? It’s kind of hard to stomach losing the World Series to the Rockies, yet this hypothetical season kind of reminds me of 2003. The ALCS *felt* bigger than the World Series that year. Not that I didn’t care that the Yankees lost to the Marlins, but rather, the bigger memory was the seven games against Boston.

Roster speculation and be-the-GM type thinking always makes for fun discussion and debate. There are a million great things that RAB has done over the years, but I always enjoy Mike’s thought process about acquisition targets. One facet of that has been his offseason plans, and I figured it would be fun for OOTP to shine on a light on what could have been from his perspective.

The Yankees keep losing players to the injured list, so it’s not too early to look at the trade market

by

(Presswire)

The 2019 season is only 16 games old, but it already feels like the Yankees need to be active on the trade market. They have been decimated by injuries, many of them long-term. Luis Severino and Dellin Betances both suffered setbacks last week and are weeks away. Aaron Hicks is being brought along slowly, we still don’t have a return date for Didi Gregorius, and Miguel Andujar is potentially facing season-ending surgery. That ain’t good.

Normally mid-April would be too early — way too early — to begin considering trade scenarios. This is not a normal year though. The Yankees have many core players on the injured list and there is a single July 31st trade deadline now. No longer can teams wait things out knowing August trade waivers are a viable fallback plan. The single July 31st trade deadline figures to increase early-season trade activity, which is good news for the Yankees.

The injuries have created needs up and down the roster. Add in attrition rates and poor performances and preexisting roster needs, and yeah, there’s a good chance the Yankees will be active on the trade market in the coming weeks. So, with that in mind, let’s look ahead at what exactly they might need (subject to change, of course), why they might need it, and who they could target. Let’s dig in.

Starting Pitching

How likely will they need it? Very likely.

Why will they need it? Well, Severino just suffered a setback and is looking at a late-June/early-July return in the best case scenario, and that’s a pretty good reason. Also, it would be foolish to count on Jordan Montgomery having an impact so soon after Tommy John surgery. There’s no shame in trading for rotation help at midseason. Four of the last five World Series winners had to do it.

  • 2018 Red Sox: Nathan Eovaldi
  • 2017 Astros: Justin Verlander
  • 2016 Cubs: No one!
  • 2015 Royals: Johnny Cueto
  • 2014 Giants: Jake Peavy

Lat strains are tricky and it doesn’t take much for six weeks on the shelf to turn into eight weeks and eight weeks to turn into ten weeks. The Yankees should get themselves some protection in case Severino is slowed (again). At a minimum, they should add an innings guy a la Lance Lynn last year. Preferably they would add someone they can put alongside Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton in a potential postseason rotation.

Possible Targets: Impending free agents on bad teams are always a good place to start. Madison Bumgarner will be the big name all summer and, honestly, I think it’s more likely the Giants sign him to an extension than trade him. He is a franchise icon. Does Cole Hamels become available if the Cubs continue to stink? I imagine the White Sox will flip Ivan Nova. The Angels could put Trevor Cahill and Matt Harvey out there. Mike Minor, Marcus Stroman, and Aaron Sanchez are either signed or under control in 2020, so they would be longer term pickups. Moreso than any other position, the pitching trade market seems to change constantly throughout the summer.

Bullpen

How likely will they need it? Probably. I mean, maybe. Chances are they will. But maybe not.

Why will they need it? The supposed Super Bullpen has been anything but super in the early going, and if that continues, yes, the Yankees will have little choice but to go out and get bullpen help at the trade deadline. If Chad Green and Zack Britton don’t get going and Betances is unable to make it back reasonably soon, adding a reliever at the deadline will be a must. Who would’ve thunk it? Baseball can be a real jerk sometimes.

That said, it is entirely possible the Yankees won’t need bullpen help at all come midseason. I mean, there’s always room for another quality reliever, but the Yankees won’t be as desperate for another bullpen arm if Green and Britton turn things around, Betances makes progress with his rehab, and someone like Joe Harvey carves out a role. I am definitely a “get as many good players as possible” guy. With the bullpen, the need isn’t quite as obvious as it is with the rotation, at least not yet. The Yankees can take a more wait-and-see approach here.

Possible Targets: With Betances hurting, the best impending free agent reliever is Giants lefty Will Smith, and San Francisco made him available over the winter. I can already see speculation of a Bumgarner/Smith package deal. The Orioles figure to make Mychal Givens and Richard Bleier available, and controllable relievers on bad teams like Drew Steckenrider (Marlins), Alex Colome and Kelvin Herrera (White Sox), and Ken Giles (Blue Jays) are always candidates to move. Maybe pass on the Giles. The other guys are a different matter.

Outfield

“We feel getting Hicks back is like making a trade.” (Presswire)

How likely will they need it? More likely than you may think!

Why will they need it? Brett Gardner is not an every single day player at this point of his career and both Hicks and Giancarlo Stanton are hurt. Stanton’s injury might not be a long-term concern. Then again, the Yankees have already had several setback situations this year, so maybe play it safe? The Hicks injury went from day-to-day to week-to-week to two cortisone shots and maybe he’ll be able to begin rehab games before the end of April.

At the moment, the Yankees’ outfield depth chart looks like this:

  1. Aaron Judge
  2. Giancarlo Stanton (injured)
  3. Aaron Hicks (injured)
  4. Brett Gardner (shouldn’t be a full-time player at this point in his career)
  5. Clint Frazier (has had injury problems the last two years)
  6. Mike Tauchman
  7. I guess Billy Burns?

You don’t have to try real hard to envision a scenario in which the Yankees need another bona fide center fielder at midseason, or at least another warm body for depth. The Yankees had Gardner, Hicks, Judge, and Stanton in the outfield last season, yet there were Shane Robinson and Neil Walker in right field in August, and Andrew McCutchen in September. There are more reasons to believe the Yankees will need to add an outfielder at some point this summer than there were at this time last year.

Possible Targets: As far as center fielders go, Jarrod Dyson is the name to keep in mind. The Diamondbacks will fall out of it eventually and he’s a rental. Dyson won’t hit a ton, but he can really go get the ball in center field and wreak havoc on the bases. Arizona teammate Adam Jones is another possibility. Yasiel Puig if the Reds don’t make a move up the standings? Not a crazy idea! With Judge under control through 2022 and both Stanton and Hicks signed long-term, I have to think the Yankees would focus on rentals should they make a play for an outfielder at the deadline.

Infield

How likely will they need it? It depends.

Why will they need it? The single July 31st trade deadline could be a headache for the Yankees with regards to their infield. Do they have enough time to evaluate Gregorius post-elbow reconstruction? Is it enough time to know whether Andujar is completely over his injury and will be able to avoid surgery? The Yankees have to hope the answer is yes and assume it will be no. Prepare to be without Andujar and prepare for a rusty Sir Didi.

With Gio Urshela already in the big leagues — he is out of minor league options and I don’t think the Yankees could count on him clearing waivers should his roster spot be needed for a returning player — the Yankees have pretty much exhausted their infield depth, especially since they don’t seem to like Tyler Wade all that much. At the very least, picking up a depth guy for Triple-A would make sense, something similar to the Adeiny Hechavarria trade last year. Another warm body just to be safe.

We know this much: The (latest) Greg Bird injury opens a spot for another bat. Even if everyone gets healthy and stays healthy the rest of the season, the Yankees could (should) slot Stanton into left field and move Gardner into a fourth outfielder’s role. That allows Luke Voit and the new mystery bat to share first base and DH. I prefer Justin Smoak. Maybe the Yankees get someone else instead. Point is, the Bird injury gives the Yankees an open spot for another hitter.

Possible Targets: Jose Abreu is the only rental first base option beyond Smoak and the White Sox have resisted trading him so long that I assume they’re going to sign him to an extension at some point. Would the Yankees take on money to get Edwin Encarnacion? (Should they?) Josh Harrison, Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Wilmer Flores stand out as low-cost utility infielder types. Starlin Castro and Todd Frazier are more expensive options. The infield market could be a buyer’s market. I think there will be more supply than demand, and that’s good for the Yankees.

* * *

The combination of a single July 31st trade deadline and so many long-term injuries leads me to believe the Yankees will look for upgrades and depth aggressively on the trade market. Assuming they want to give themselves the best shot at contention, that is. Also, it’s not like they can wait around long either, because they could be looking at a double-digit deficit in the standings come June without help. The sooner the Yankees act, the better their chances to stay in the race all season. It really is that simple.