2015 Payroll Breakdown: Part Two


Although the Yankees didn’t do anything of note at the Winter Meetings last week, they have been busy this offseason and especially this month. Most of the moves have been on the smaller side, at least relative to last offseason, though the club has remade the left side of the infield, added some pitching, and improved the bench. As a result, the 2015 payroll situation has changed quite a bit since our last update in early-October.

The Yankees insist they will not give Max Scherzer the kind of ginormous contract it will take to bring him to New York, and when you see their current contract commitments, it’s easy to understand why. They have a lot of big contracts gone bad and next year’s payroll is already well beyond the $189M luxury tax threshold. Unless ownership decides to push payroll to a place it’s never been, Scherzer (or James Shields, for that matter) isn’t happening. Here’s where the 2015 payroll sits right now.

UNDER CONTRACT (16 players signed for $206.56M)
Players: A-Rod ($27.5M), CC Sabathia ($24.4M), Mark Teixeira ($22.5M), Masahiro Tanaka ($22.14M), Jacoby Ellsbury ($21.86M), Brian McCann ($17M), Carlos Beltran ($15M), Brett Gardner ($13M), Chase Headley ($13M), Martin Prado ($10M), Andrew Miller ($9M), Chris Capuano ($5M), Chris Young ($2.5M), Brendan Ryan ($1.67M), Esmil Rogers ($1.48M), Jose DePaula ($510k)

Those are each player’s luxury tax “hit,” not their actual take home salary for the 2015 season. The Yankees seem to operate in terms of luxury tax salary because that’s the most important number to them. Those 16 players already soak up over $206M of payroll on their own and that’s just incredible. It’s nearly $13M per player. The scary part is that no one really knows what to expect from the four highest paid players next year due to injuries and other factors.

DePaula is a special case here because the only one of those 16 players who isn’t locked into an MLB roster spot heading into next season. The Yankees signed him to a split one-year contract back in November, so he’ll earn $510k while in MLB and only $175k in the minors. For luxury tax purposes, his salary will be based on his time at each level. If, for example, he spends half the year in MLB and half in Triple-A, his luxury tax hit will be a little more than $342k — half of $510k plus half of $175k. Got it? Good. The other 15 players here are pretty straight forward. They’re all expected to be on the roster.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE (four players projected for $9.2M)
Players: Ivan Nova ($3.3M), Shawn Kelley ($2.5M), Michael Pineda ($2.1M), David Phelps ($1.3M)

The Yankees started the offseason with seven arbitration-eligible players and now they’re down to four. Francisco Cervelli was traded, David Huff was non-tendered, and Rogers agreed to a contract to avoid arbitration on non-tender deadline day. The Yankees cut his salary the maximum amount, so it seems like they said either take the offer or we’re going to non-tender you. Harsh, but not a bad strategy.

MLBTR’s arbitration projections are generally very accurate but there are always some outliers, so these salaries could be high or low. For now they work as good estimates. None of those four players stands out as a contract extension candidate. Pineda and Nova would have if not for all the injuries — Nova is hurt right now and Pineda’s made 13 starts in the last three years. Then again, neither guy received a huge signing bonus as amateurs, so maybe they’d jump at the chance to get a guaranteed payday and the Yankees could low-ball them. I don’t see that happening though. Adding these four to the under contract guys gives us $215.76M on 20 players.

PRE-ARBITRATION (19 players)
Players: Tyler Austin, Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Danny Burawa, Preston Claiborne, Ramon Flores, Didi Gregorius, Bryan Mitchell, John Ryan Murphy, Eury Perez, Branden Pinder, Jose Pirela, Jose Ramirez, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Adam Warren, Chase Whitley, Mason Williams, Justin Wilson

As with DePaula earlier, these 19 players will sign split contracts for the 2015 season, so they’ll earn something close to the league minimum in MLB and something considerably less in the minors. Again, their luxury tax hit depends on how much time they spend at each level. At this point, Betances, Gregorius, Warren, either Murphy or Romine, and probably Wilson are the only guys here we can safely say will spend all of next season in the show. Everyone else figures to either ride the bus up and down or simply spend most of the season in the minors.

Conservatively assuming $600k each for Betances, Gregorius, Warren, Wilson, and one of the backup catchers — the MLB minimum is $507,500 next year, but these guys all have big league time and will earn more than that — brings us to $218.76M for 25 roster spots, including DePaula, who’s probably going to start the year in Triple-A. The remaining pre-arbitration players are usually estimated at $2M or so for the season, bringing us to $220.76M for 39 roster spots. (The Yankees have one open 40-man spot right now.) Good gravy that’s a lot of money.

BONUSES (up to $10.825M)
Players: Alex Rodriguez ($6M with six more homers), Chris Young (up to $3.825M based on plate appearances), Chase Headley (up to $1M based on plate appearances)

Bonuses do count towards the luxury tax and A-Rod’s homer milestone bonus is the big one. He’s six away from tying Willie Mays on the all-time homerun list and that triggers the first of five milestone bonuses. (The next milestone kicks in at 714 homers and he’s 60 away from that, so it won’t happen this year if at all.) A-Rod hasn’t hit fewer than seven homers during a season in which he actually played a game since he was a 19-year-old kid in 1995. Even with two surgically repaired hips and almost two full years away from the game, six homers seems doable for Alex as long as he stays on the field.

Young’s and Headley’s bonuses are all based on plate appearance totals. Headley gets $250k each for his 475th, 500th, 525th, and 550th plate appearance of the season. Young’s bonuses are much more complicated — he gets $150k for his 250th plate appearance and that gradually climbs to $550k for his 600th plate appearances. In a perfect world Headley gets his full $1M and Young gets maybe less than half that $3.825M. (He’d have to hit 400 plate appearances to get roughly half.) I’m not going to include the bonuses in our running payroll total because they aren’t guaranteed, but they are something to keep in mind and something the Yankees have to plan for.

There’s still a lot of offseason left and a lot can change, yadda yadda yadda, but here’s the Yankees’ 25-man roster as it stands right now:

Catcher Infielders Outfielders Rotation Bullpen
McCann 1B Teixeira LF Gardner Sabathia Betances
2B Prado CF Ellsbury Tanaka Miller
DH SS Gregorius RF Beltran Pineda Warren
A-Rod! 3B Headley Capuano Kelley
Phelps Wilson
Bench Disabled List Rogers
C Murphy or Romine OF Young Nova ?
IF Ryan ?

The bench question mark would likely be Pirela if the season started today, but maybe he gets beaten out by a non-roster invitee or something in Spring Training. Either way, that spot figures to cost right around the league minimum. The Yankees could go in a lot of different directions for the bullpen question mark, including putting Phelps in the ‘pen and letting Mitchell or Banuelos or DePaula start. Whitley, Claiborne, Burawa … lots of cheap internal options for the final pitching question mark.

Of course, I don’t know many people who want that spot filled with a cheap internal option. Lots of people want Scherzer or Shields or a big trade for Jordan Zimmermann, someone like that. A legitimate top notch starter to improve the rotation. The Yankees already have approximately $220M in luxury tax hits committed to their 40-man roster as it is right now though. Oh, you know what? I totally forgot to add the $12M or so each team has to pay in benefits each season, which counts towards the luxury tax. The Yankees are really at $232M or so for those 39 roster spots. The team finished the 2013 season — meaning after midseason trades — with $236.2M in payroll for the luxury tax, their all-time record. They’re approaching that number now before doing anything in season.

Yes, this is just an estimate and there’s still a lot of wiggle room with the bonuses and arbitration-eligible and pre-arbitration players, but not a ton. I’d guess we’re within $10M of the real payroll number, which is a lot and a little at the same time. Point is, the Yankees are at the very least in the ballpark of setting a new franchise record payroll. Adding someone like Scherzer or Shields would make it all but guaranteed. The Yankees have a ton of money and can afford this — at least I think they can, I haven’t seen their books — but Hal Steinbrenner seems disinclined to go any higher, at least right now. They do always seem to take on money in midseason trades, of course.

Given the numbers and where the payroll sits right now, I think the only player the Yankees would sign for substantial money this offseason would be Hiroki Kuroda, and that’s only because he’ll take a one-year contract and they’re very comfortable with him. If he doesn’t return, bottom feeding for more Capuano types is likely in the cards. That doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t make a significant move, they could always make a big trade where the dollars are even or they shed payroll, but those are hard to do. Aside from Kuroda, I would be very surprised if the Yankees took on any more big money contracts this winter.

Wednesday Night Open Thread

I don’t want to get too political, but earlier today President Obama announced the United States will seek to normalize diplomatic relations with Cuba, so I wrote about what could mean for baseball down the road over the CBS. You should read it. Hopefully one day it will be easier for Cuban players to come over to MLB, and I don’t say that because I want the Yankees to sign all of them (I do!), but because MLB is the best league in the world and this is where the best players should be.

Anyway, this is your open thread for the evening. The Devils and Nets are playing, plus there’s college basketball on somewhere. Please don’t talk about politics or anything like that. This isn’t the place for it. If you want to talk about the Cuba stuff, please keep it to baseball. Thanks in advance.

Eddy: Yankees sign infielder Cole Figueroa to minor league deal

(Leon Halip/Getty)
(Leon Halip/Getty)

The Yankees have signed infielder Cole Figueroa to a minor league contract, reports Matt Eddy. No word on whether he received an invitation to Spring Training but I assume that is the case. The Rays designated Figueroa for assignment in November and released him a few days later. They originally acquired him from the Padres in the Jason Bartlett trade way back in December 2010.

Figueroa, 27, made his MLB debut this past season and had a 74 wRC+ in only 49 plate appearances. He hit .282/.371/.389 (114 wRC+) with three homers and four steals in 71 Triple-A Games this year, his third season at the level. Figueroa is a career .285/.359/.378 (108 wRC+) hitter with eight homers and 17 steals in nearly 1,200 career Triple-A plate appearances now. He’s obviously not much of a power hitter or base-stealer.

Pretty much the only reasons Figueroa is interesting are his incredible strikeout and walk rates. He’s struck out only 81 times (6.8%) while drawing 119 walks (10.0%) during all the time in Triple-A. Figueroa has walked more than he’s struck out at every minor league stop since a 21-game stint in High-A back in 2009. His career rates in the minors are 11.8 BB% and 8.8 K%. That’s pretty incredible. Like Dean Anna but even more extreme.

Figueroa has spent most of his time at second and third bases but has also played some shortstop and a tiny little bit in the corner outfield. He’s the son of ex-big leaguer Bien Figueroa and has grown up around the game, which is why friend of RAB R.J. Anderson says Figueroa is really smart on the field. With Chase Headley re-signed, the best Figueroa can hope to do is beat out Jose Pirela for a bench job in Spring Training. Otherwise he’s just an extra body for Triple-A Scranton.

Reports: Yanks were among runners-up for Brett Anderson

(Thearon W. Henderson/Getty)
(Thearon W. Henderson/Getty)

According to Jeff Passan and Buster Olney, the Yankees were among the runners-up for left-hander Brett Anderson, who signed with the Dodgers earlier this week. The Braves, Royals, and Athletics were also after him. The Dodgers gave Anderson a one-year contract worth $10M with a bunch of incentives a few days ago.

As noted in our Scouting The Market post a few weeks ago, the Yankees tried to acquire Anderson several times in the past, so their interest in him as a free agent this winter is no surprise. They tried to get him from the Athletics last offseason and again from the Rockies at the trade deadline this past season. Anderson, who will turn 27 in February, was the youngest free agent on the market this winter.

I’d love to know what the Yankees were willing to offer Anderson — chances are we’ll never find out, of course — because that $10M deal seems a little crazy for a guy with his injury history. (Anderson has thrown only 206.1 innings since 2011.) Most contract estimates pegged him for a $7M salary on a one-year deal coming into the winter. I guess $10M isn’t all that crazy then. Reclamation projects don’t cost $1M or $2M anymore.

The Yankees re-signed Chris Capuano yesterday and I suppose that could be a direct result of losing out on Anderson. Once they realized they weren’t getting Anderson, they turned around and gave the money to Capuano. That sort of thing. The Yankees do need multiple starters this winter though, so maybe they would have signed Capuano even if they had landed Anderson. Who knows.

Anderson is still really young and has upside remaining — the upside being he continues to pitch exactly like he has but actually stays healthy all year — but there is no shortage of reclamation project arms still available. Chad Billingsley, Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, Josh Johnson, and Alexi Ogando have all had a bunch of injury problems in recent years and remain on the market. Still plenty of opportunity for the Yankees to add even more injury risk to the rotation.

Prospect Profile: Tyler Webb

(Robert Pimpsner)
(Robert Pimpsner)

Tyler Webb | LHP

Webb, whose full name is Jon Tyler Webb, is from the tiny little town of Nassawadox on the Eastern Shore of Virginia. He pitched at Northampton High School. Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank him as one of the 31 best prospects in the state for the 2009 draft, and Webb ultimately went undrafted out of high school. He instead followed through on his commitment to the University of South Carolina.

Webb worked as a swingman during his freshman year with the Gamecocks, pitching to a 3.96 ERA with 36 walks and 13 strikeouts spread across seven starts and ten relief appearances. He held the same role as a sophomore, and while Webb improved to a 3.00 ERA in 36 innings across five starts and 17 relief appearances, he struck out only 28 and walked 17. USC won the College World Series both years.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank Webb, who was a draft-eligible sophomore, as one of the 40 best prospects in South Carolina after the 2011 college season. The Reds selected him in the 48th round (1,465th overall pick) of the 2011 draft and whatever bonus they offered Webb wasn’t enough. He opted to return to school for his junior season.

USC moved Webb into the bullpen full-time as a junior and he was excellent, pitching to a 1.56 ERA in 39 appearances. He struck out 58 and walked 18 in 57.2 innings. Despite that performance, Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank Webb among the top prospects in the state for the 2012 draft and he went undrafted, so he returned to school for his senior season. (The draft was shortened from 50 rounds to 40 rounds in 2012.)

Webb took over as the team’s closer as a senior and saved 17 games with a 1.47 ERA in 43 innings. He struck out 60, walked 14, and, for the second straight year, did not allow a homer. That earned him a spot on the All-American Third Team. Webb appeared in 32 games that spring and set the school’s all-time record with 110 career pitching appearances. He finished his career at USC with a 2.34 ERA and a 182/62 K/BB in 173 innings.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Webb as the 17th best prospect in South Carolina for the 2013 draft but not as one of the top 500 draft prospects overall. The Yankees selected him in the tenth round (314th overall) as a way to save draft pool space — they signed him to a well-below slot $30,000 bonus almost immediately, saving a little more than $100,000 in draft pool space. (That money eventually went to Aaron Judge‘s above-slot bonus.)

Pro Career
The Yankees assigned Webb to Short Season Staten Island after the draft but he didn’t stay there long. After striking out eight and walking two in five hitless innings, they bumped him up to Low-A Charleston. Webb had a 3.86 ERA (3.25 FIP) with 40 strikeouts and only six walks in 30.1 innings across 16 appearances with the River Dogs to close out his first taste of professional baseball.

Assigned to High-A Tampa to open the 2014 season, Webb made only eight appearances there before being moved up to Double-A Trenton. He had a 2.77 ERA (1.24 FIP) with 17 strikeouts and one walk in 13 innings and eight appearances with Tampa. Webb’s stint with the Thunder was also relatively short — he was there for only 35.2 innings and 23 appearances, during which he had a 4.04 ERA (2.65 FIP) with 51 strikeouts and 14 walks.

The Yankees moved Webb up to Triple-A Scranton late in the season and he had a 4.05 ERA (3.76 FIP) in 20 innings across 17 appearances with the RailRiders. He struck out 26 and walked seven. All together, Webb had a 3.80 ERA (2.74 FIP) with 94 strikeouts (32.1%) and 22 walks (7.5%) in 68.2 relief innings at three minor league levels in 2014.

Scouting Report
First things first: Webb is huge. He’s listed at 6-foot-6 and 225 pounds. Not a small man. Despite all that size, Webb’s fastball is only average, usually sitting in the 90-92 mph range even as a full-time reliever. His upper-70s curveball is a decent second offering but not a knockout pitch. I’m guessing the Yankees had him tinker with a cutter at some point as well. Here’s some video from his senior year at USC:

Webb’s average-ish stuff plays up a little bit because he has some funk in his delivery and hides the ball well. It’s a classic lefty specialist profile — lefties have hit .216/.264/.353 with a 40.5% strikeout rate and a 4.0% walk rate against Webb as a pro for what it’s worth, which isn’t much because it’s only 126 plate appearances spread across parts of two seasons — without a ton of upside. Webb has an okay fastball, can spin a breaking ball, and uses his delivery to create deception. Textbook matchup southpaw.

2015 Outlook
Given his zoom up the ladder and proximity to the Major Leagues, I expect Webb to get an invitation to big league Spring Training come February. I don’t think he has much of a chance of winning a bullpen job, but it will be an opportunity to show the staff what he can do and put himself in position for call-up later in the season. Kinda like Preston Claiborne in 2013. Either way, impressive camp or not, Webb is ticketed for a return to the Triple-A Scranton bullpen to start next season.

My Take
I like Webb in a “he’s exceeded all expectations a senior sign in the tenth round” kind of way. He’s a little older than the typical prospect (turns 25 in July), but if all he ever does is reach MLB and throw about ten good innings, it’s successful draft pick. Webb might be most useful to the Yankees as a trade chip though — granted, players like this don’t have a ton of value, but some team might like him as the second or third piece in a trade — because the organization has a lot of left-handed relief depth at the moment. Andrew Miller, Justin Wilson, and Jacob Lindgren are ahead of Webb on the depth chart and James Pazos is right behind him. Webb will get an opportunity to open eyes in Spring Training, and not only the Yankees’.

Capuano a nice depth pickup, but only part of the rotation solution

(Jim Rogash/Getty)
(Jim Rogash/Getty)

The Yankees came into the offseason in a need of at least one starting pitcher — preferably two! — and that was before they used Shane Greene to acquire Didi Gregorius. After that trade they definitely needed two starters. New York acquired one of those starters yesterday by re-signing Chris Capuano to a reasonable one-year contract, and Brian Cashman made it clear Capuano will be in the rotation during a conference call yesterday afternoon.

“He’ll come to Spring Training as a starter. He’s coming in as one of our starters,” said the GM. Capuano joins CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, and Masahiro Tanaka as rotation locks, assuming Sabathia’s knee and Pineda’s shoulder and Tanaka’s elbow make it through camp in one piece. Both David Phelps and Adam Warren are coming to Spring Training as starters, and Cashman also named Bryan Mitchell, Chase Whitley, Jose DePaula, and Esmil Rogers as internal rotation options.

Needless to say, there’s nothing particularly exciting about bringing Capuano back. He’s a boringly serviceable back-end starter who seems to pitch just well enough to keep his team in the game while occasionally throwing a gem. (Over the last four years, Capuano has as many starts with an 85+ Game Score as Zack Greinke and Doug Fister. It seems like once or twice a year he’ll unexpectedly throw a masterpiece.) Is he the fourth starter we were all hoping for? Nah. But does he help? Sure.

And Capuano is nothing more than that, a help. He’s not the answer to the team’s rotation problems all by himself. He’s just a very small part of the solution, a solution that frankly the Yankees might not completely find this winter. There are two top free agent starters still on the board (Max Scherzer and James Shields), no more mid-rotation guys, and then a whole lotta Capuano types and reclamation projects. Unless Hiroki Kuroda decides to continue playing*, those middle of the rotation starters are all gone.

* I get the feeling that if Kuroda does decide to continue playing, there will be one big announcement. “Hiroki Kuroda has decided to pitch in 2015 … and oh by the way the Yankees have signed him for one year and $15M.” Something like that. I don’t think it’ll be a prolonged free agency.

“We are never done or finished, so I will continue to be engaged in the free-agent and trade markets … I think it’s safe to assume we are open to any legitimate possibilities to improve our club,” said Cashman during yesterday’s conference call (via Chad Jennings and George King). “Obviously making sense in the current circumstances that we have … The preference would be to never have to go to the free agent market to get what you need, but that’s just not realistic.”

Since the Yankees seem disinclined to pursue Scherzer — I assume the same is true for Shields, though I won’t rule them out on either pitcher until they sign elsewhere — the only way they’re going to get an impact starter this winter is through trade, which is always possible. The Padres and Mets have arms to spare, the Phillies are still looking to unload Cole Hamels, the Reds could still move Johnny Cueto or Mike Leake, so on and so forth. A trade is pretty much the only way the Yankees will get guys who pass the “better than Capuano” test unless they change course on Scherzer and/or Shields.

The Yankees re-signed Capuano because they need multiple starters and he was among the best of the non-elite remaining on the board. A signing like this was inevitable, even if they had signed Scherzer or Shields first. Capuano should only be part of the rotation fix and not the whole thing. At worst, he’s a stopgap until Ivan Nova is healthy or Luis Severino is deemed ready. At best, he’s 2011 Freddy Garcia. If the Yankees stop here and don’t add anymore pitching, then yeah they have a problem. There’s still a lot of offseason left and Cashman is clearly open to more moves. As long as Capuano is nothing more than one piece of the solution, then he’s a fine depth addition.

Tuesday Night Open Thread

Earlier today the Yankees re-signed Chris Capuano to a perfectly reasonable one-year, $5M contract. Capuano makes me nervous whenever he’s on the mound, I’m not a fan of finesse lefties at all, but he’s a serviceable depth piece who can be easily shipped to the bullpen or even dropped from the roster if a better option comes along. Now, if he’s the only pitcher the Yankees bring in this winter, that’s a problem. I don’t think that’ll be the case though.

Here is tonight’s open thread. The (hockey) Rangers, Knicks, and Nets are all playing, and there’s the usual slate of college basketball as well. Talk about those games, the return of Capuano, or anything else right here. Have at it.