Wednesday Night Open Thread

Five years ago tonight, the Yankees rallied to beat Pedro Martinez and even the 2009 World Series at one win apiece. Mark Teixeira hit a game-tying solo homer in the fourth and Hideki Matsui hit a go-ahead solo homer in the sixth. Jorge Posada singled in an insurance run in the seventh and Mariano Rivera threw two scoreless innings for the save. Here’s the box score. I’ll always remember Game Two as A.J. Burnett‘s finest moment in pinstripes — he struck out nine in seven innings of one-run ball with the Yankees facing an 0-2 series hole heading back to Philadelphia. Here’s video of his outing.

Here is your open thread for the night. The Giants and Royals are playing Game Seven of the World Series (Hudson vs. Guthrie, 8pm ET on FOX) and I really hope it will be more entertaining than the rest of the series. Five of the six games have been decided by 5+ runs. ZZzzzz. Anyway, the Knicks and Nets both begin their seasons tonight, so talk about any of these games or anything else right here.

2014 Season Review: Lefty rotation fodder

(Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
(Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

From 2009 through 2012, CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte were the only lefties to start games for the Yankees. That’s a little odd, considering the huge number of random lefties that got spot starts from 2004 through 2008. So odd, in fact, that I made a Sporcle quiz that no one has even the slightest chance of completing.


The Yankees broke that four-year drought in 2013, when David Huff and Vidal Nuno combined for five starts. Heading into 2014, Nuno was in the running for a rotation spot. He understandably lost out to Michael Pineda. But when Ivan Nova went down with an elbow injury, Nuno lined up for the next start. It was his.

And it was a disaster.

You could be charitable and say sure, Nuno had some not terrible starts here and there. For instance, he lasted 6.1 innings in a 1-0 win against the best-record-in-baseball Angels. There were five shutout innings against the Rays in April.

The Yankees did have something of a reason to believe Nuno could help. He pitched well during his brief MLB stint in 2013, which followed a lights-out performance in AAA. In 2012 he cruised through A+ and AA with a 2.54 combined ERA and a 3.82 K/BB ratio. He didn’t have the stuff of an ace, but as a #5 starter it seemed he might cut it.

Cut it he might. Just not in New York. What stood out in his 14 starts was an alarming home run rate. In four of those 14 starts he gave up multiple homers, including three twice. In other words, when he’s off even a bit hitters can take advantage. Out in Arizona, another hitters’ park, he allowed a homer in nine of his 14 starts.

In other words, the Yankees might have given up a useful starter who, at the time of the trade, had five and a half years of team control. Yet they got back Brandon McCarthy, who seemed to find himself while wearing pinstripes. For a team with perpetual sights on contention, the trade was a coup for the Yankees. If they can re-sign McCarthy there will be no reason to ever look back on this one.

For a while it seemed as though the Yankees would forge ahead with a five-righty rotation. But in late July, three weeks after trading Nuno, they acquired Chris Capuano from the Rockies. And so the Yankees traded away a mediocre lefty and picked one up for cash considerations. Given the acquisition of McCarthy, that sounds like a great trade-off.

(Alex Goodlett/Getty Images)
(Alex Goodlett/Getty Images)

Yet Capuano did play a valuable role down the stretch. Rarely did he dazzle, but he also rarely had a breakdown. (The exception being his 0.1 inning, four-run start against Tampa, which he redeemed in his very next start by pitching six shutout innings against them.) Never did he allow more than four runs in a start, and three times he allowed none. It’s more than anyone expected from a guy who couldn’t hack it on the last-place Red Sox.

Were it not for the huge number of starting pitcher injuries, the Yankees might not have even needed Capuano. They wouldn’t have run Nuno out there for so many starts. But when three fifths of your Opening Day rotation is on the DL by May 15, with two of them done for the year, you have to reach deeply into the pitching well. With a healthy Sabathia (potentially a problem of his own) and a healthy Pineda, chances are David Phelps takes over for Nuno. If Phelps still gets hurt in that scenario, there’s Shane Greene.

All told, the lefty fodder combination of Nuno and Capuano didn’t perform too too badly. They combined to pitch 143.2 innings to a 4.89 ERA, which is essentially what Mike Minor did. Given the unreasonable number of injuries to the staff, they could have done a lot worse.

FanGraphs’ contract crowdsourcing results for the top 55 free agents

On the eve of the offseason, FanGraphs’ released their contract crowdsourcing results for the top 55 free agents this coming offseason. Here’s the link. The crowd generally underestimated contract values for the top free agents last year, as the intro notes. Still, it’s a nice look at how a large group of people think these free agents will be valued, which is something no one can ever seem to agree on.

The FanGraphs’ crowd projects four years and $56M for Chase Headley, three years and $36M for Brandon McCarthy, three years and $30M for David Robertson, and one year and $7M for Stephen Drew. Sounds reasonable enough to me. I wonder if a team will step forward and offer a fourth guaranteed year to McCarthy or Robertson. That would probably put them over the top. I think the crowd’s six-year, $132M projection for Jon Lester is way light, especially compared to Max Scherzer’s seven-year, $168M projection. Anyway, check out the numbers. They’re a good starting point for conversation.

2014-2015 Offseason Calendar

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

One way or the other, the World Series and the 2014 baseball season will end tonight. The Royals blew the Giants out of the water in Game Six last night, a game that had a very Game Six of the 2001 World Series vibe. Hopefully Game Seven tonight is as exciting as Game Seven in 2001 was for everyone but Yankees fans.

Anyway, with the World Series set to end in 15 hours or so, the offseason will officially begin tomorrow. There are a ton of dates and deadlines throughout the winter and some are more important to the Yankees than others. So, with four baseball-less months upon us, here is the annual RAB rundown of the important offseason dates.

  • Tomorrow, October 30th: At 9am ET, eligible players become free agents and players on the 60-day DL and restricted list are activated. The Yankees have ten players hitting free agency: David Robertson, Hiroki Kuroda, Ichiro Suzuki, Brandon McCarthy, Chase Headley, Stephen Drew, Chris Capuano, Chris Young, Rich Hill, and the retired Derek Jeter. Ivan Nova, CC Sabathia, Martin Prado, and Slade Heathcott will all be activated off the 60-day DL and Alex Rodriguez will be activated off the restricted list. The Yankees will have 35 players on the 40-man.
  • This Saturday, November 1st: Option decisions due. Most of them, anyway. Some contracts specify a different date. The Yankees’ only option decision is for Andrew Bailey, who has a club option for 2015 believed to be worth $2M or so. He didn’t pitch at all this year following shoulder capsule surgery and had numerous setbacks. I wouldn’t be surprised if the team walked away.
  • Next Monday, November 3rd: Deadline to make eligible free agents the one-year, $15.3M qualifying offer. Robertson will definitely get one, Kuroda might. RAB readers would make him one. McCarthy, Headley, and Drew are not eligible for the qualifying offer because they were traded at midseason.
  • Next Tuesday, November 4th: End of the five-day exclusive negotiating period. As of 12:01am ET next Tuesday, free agents can negotiate and sign with any team. Also, the 2014 Gold Gloves will be announced at 7pm ET. The Yankees don’t have any finalists.
  • November 10th: Last day for free agents to accept or reject the qualifying offer. If the player rejects and signs with a new team, his new team will forfeit their first round pick and his former team will receive a supplemental first round pick.
  • November 10th to 12th: GM Meetings in Phoenix. These used to be boring from a hot stove point of view — they’re for business matters — but there have been more deals struck at the GM Meetings in recent years. The wheels for the Curtis Granderson trade were put into motion at the 2010 GM Meetings, for example.
  • November 10th to 13th: Major awards announced. Rookies of the Year will be announced on the 10th, then Managers of the Year, Cy Youngs, and MVPs in the following days. Dellin Betances and Masahiro Tanaka are candidates to finish second to Jose Abreu for the AL Rookie of the Year. The Yankees don’t have any other serious awards candidates.
  • November 10th to 18th: The “All-Star Series 2014″ in Japan. A team of MLB players will play three exhibition games and a five-game series against the Japanese National Team. Capuano is the only Yankee currently on the roster despite not really being a Yankee anymore. Jeter declined to participate.
  • November 20th: Deadline for teams to finalize their 40-man roster for the Rule 5 Draft. The Yankees will add 1B/OF Tyler Austin to the 40-man roster to protect him. Other Rule 5 Draft eligible players include RHP Danny Burawa, RHP Zach Nuding, 1B Kyle Roller, RHP Branden Pinder, and OF Mason Williams, among others. I’d bet on one or two of those bullpen arms being protected.
  • December 2nd: Deadline for teams to make contract offers to their pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players, otherwise known as the non-tender deadline. A whole new and less interesting batch of free agents will hit the market on this date. Esmil Rogers and David Huff are the Yankees’ two obvious non-tender candidates.
  • December 8th to 11th: Winter Meetings in San Diego. This is usually when all hell breaks loose and there are tons of rumors and signings and trades each day, though last year most of the action — Robinson Cano, Brian McCann, and Jacoby Ellsbury signings, Prince Fielder-for-Ian Kinsler trade, etc. — happened before the Winter Meetings. Was that just a blip or the start of a trend?
  • December 11th: Rule 5 Draft, which is the unofficial end of the Winter Meetings. Teams that do not have an open 40-man spot as of November 20th can not make a pick. As a reminder, players selected in the Rule 5 Draft have to stay on their new team’s 25-man active roster all year, or be put on waivers and offered back to their old team before they can be sent to the minors.
  • January 13th: Deadline for eligible players to file for arbitration. Just a formality. Nothing exciting. Michael Pineda, Shawn Kelley, Frankie Cervelli, David Phelps, Nova, Huff, and Rogers are the team’s arbitration-eligible players this winter. Here are their projected 2015 salaries.
  • January 16th: Deadline for eligible players and teams to file salary figures for arbitration. Both sides usually try to avoid letting things get this far, but they can still negotiate a contract of any size after this date.
  • February 1st to 21st: Arbitration hearings. The two sides can still negotiate a contract at any point up until literally walking in the room for the hearing. The three-person panel will choose either the salary filed by the player or team after hearing each side’s argument. The Yankees haven’t gone to an arbitration hearing since beating Chien-Ming Wang back in 2008.
  • February 20th: Pitchers and catchers report to Tampa. Yay Spring Training.

The Yankees already took care their most important piece of offseason business by re-signing Brian Cashman. Nothing could have happened without having him or a new GM in place. So now, in the most basic terms, the Yankees need to find half an infield and a bunch of pitchers this offseason. Re-signing Robertson will be among their top priorities, as will re-signing or replacing McCarthy, Headley, and Drew. At some point they have to finalize their coaching staff and hire both a first base coach and a hitting coach. I’m sure that’ll happen sooner rather than later. The Yankees have a busy offseason ahead of them, but that’s nothing new.

Tuesday Night Open Thread

Five years ago today, the Yankees and Phillies played Game One of the 2009 World Series. The Yankees got absolutely manhandled by Cliff Lee that night, as I’m sure you remember. Chase Utley hit two solo homeruns off CC Sabathia — Sabathia allowed just three homers to left-handed hitters during the regular season — and the Phillies won the game 6-1. There was panic in the streets of RAB. Here’s the box score. The 2009 Yankees are the only team in the last ten years to win the World Series after dropping Game One.

Here is your open thread for the evening. The Giants and Royals are playing Game Six of the World Series tonight (Peavy vs. Ventura, 8pm ET), and San Francisco can clinch their third championship in the last five years. Kansas City is trying to force a Game Seven. The NBA season starts tonight, though neither the Knicks nor Nets are playing. Both the Devils and Islanders are in action though. Discuss any of those games or anything else right here.