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Thoughts one week before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training

February 6, 2019 by Mike

T-minus one week until pitchers and catchers report and Spring Training begins. Greg Joyce says Greg Bird, J.A. Happ, James Paxton, Gary Sanchez, Luis Severino, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, and 2018 first rounder Anthony Seigler are among those already in Tampa preparing for the season. This offseason needs to end already. I’m ready for baseball. Anyway, here are some random thoughts.

1. Because the free agent market is frozen, a few times in recent weeks I’ve mentioned the Yankees are in position to snag a free agent bargain in February or March, and that’s still true. On paper, they have an open bench spot and two open bullpen spots. The free agent reliever market has really thinned out. Craig Kimbrel is far and the away the best available. After him it’s probably Adam Warren, and I’d be cool with (another) reunion with him. There’s not much quality bullpen help available. For that bench spot though, gosh, the Yankees could have their pick of the litter. Derek Dietrich and Josh Harrison are still out there, as are lesser bench types like Yangervis Solarte. I would be surprised to see Marwin Gonzalez’s market collapse so much that he becomes an option for the Yankees, though, at this point, who knows? The Yankees have internal candidates for that final bench spot (Bird, Clint Frazier, Tyler Wade) so they are in position to sit back and see how the market shakes out in a few weeks. They can monitor Troy Tulowitzki’s comeback, react to any injuries in camp, and see whether anything makes sense. Neil Walker did last spring. Maybe Dietrich or Harrison or Warren or someone else does this spring. I think the Yankees still have one more move in them before Opening Day and I’m not referring to Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. I could see one last cheap signing in late-February or March, with Jordan Montgomery’s inevitable 60-day DL stint clearing a 40-man roster spot.

2. I’ve been thinking a bunch about Jonathan Loaisiga’s role with the Yankees the last few days. We only got a brief look at him last year and he is so obviously talented. His fastball averaged 96.2 mph and topped at 98.4 mph during his big league stint last season, and his fastball spin rate (75th percentile) and breaking ball spin rate (86th percentile) were very good. The tools are there for success. Will the durability be there? Thus far the answer is no. We know the Yankees have gotten some trade calls about Loaisiga this winter, and I can’t help but wonder whether cashing him in as a trade chip is the way to go. His stock may never be higher than it is right now and the breakdown potential is scary high. And, if trading Loaisiga is not in the cards, is it best to use him as a multi-inning reliever in the big leagues rather than send him to Triple-A to accumulate innings? I guess this all boils to how the Yankees feel about his chances of staying healthy. Loaisiga is not the biggest guy (5-foot-11 and 165 lbs.) and the best predictor of future injury is past injury, and he has a lot of past injuries. I think the the Yankees should use him in the bullpen and get what they can out of him before the next injury rather than try to groom him for a long-term role when his body is telling us it probably won’t hold up long-term. I so wish Loaisiga would stay healthy. You just can’t count on it given his history. There may be a very small window to extract MLB value from him, and if that means trading him or using him out of the bullpen, then the Yankees should do it.

3. I know we’ve been heavy on Adam Ottavino content the last two weeks — I recently wrote about his move to sea level and his stolen base problems — but I have one more Ottavino nugget to dump on you. I was poking around some leaderboards the other day and found he’s among the best in game at creating “perceived” velocity, meaning the extension in his delivery makes his fastball play up. He’s releasing the ball that much closer to the plate and it gets on hitters quicker than the radar gun reading would lead you to believe. Here is last year’s leaderboard in fastball velocity gained through extension (min. 500 fastballs thrown):

Tyler Glasnow: +2.6 mph (96.5 mph actual to 99.1 mph perceived)
Freddy Peralta: +1.6 mph (90.7 mph actual to 92.3 mph perceived)
Phil Maton: +1.6 mph (91.0 mph actual to 92.6 mph perceived)
Yusmeiro Petit: +1.5 mph (89.2 mph actual to 90.7 mph perceived)
Brent Suter: +1.5 mph (86.6 mph actual to 88.1 mph perceived)
Jack Flaherty: +1.5 mph (92.6 mph actual to 94.1 mph perceived)
Adam Ottavino: +1.3 mph (93.8 mph actual to 95.1 mph perceived)

First things first: Yeesh, Tyler Glasnow. I guess being 6-foot-8 with the wingspan of a condor has its advantages. Secondly, only 13 pitchers in baseball added at least one full mile an hour to their fastball through perceived velocity last year, so this isn’t particularly common. Ottavino is a big guy (6-foot-5) and last year’s perceived velocity gain was larger than 2017’s (+0.9 mph) and 2015-16’s (+0.8 mph), so maybe the increase is the result of last offseason’s training? Who knows. Velocity is not everything but it correlates well to higher strikeout rates and lower contact rates, which makes perfect sense. The hitter has that much less time to react. In Ottavino’s case, his fastball already has good velocity, and it plays higher due to his extension. Also, hitters have even less time to react to his cartoon slider. No other Yankee comes particularly close to Ottavino’s perceived velocity gain (Aroldis Chapman is next up at +0.5 mph) and I dunno, is this something you can teach? Adding extension seems possible but there are physical limitations (pitchers are only so tall and their arms only so long) and, at some point, you’re pushing the mechanical changes too far. Either way, Ottavino is among the best at making his fastball seem faster than it really it. When the radar gun says 95 mph and the hitter reacts like it’s 98 mph, his extension out in front and the hitter having to respect the slider is why.

4. Last week Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reported the Reds have been “quietly shopping” infield prospect Jonathan India this winter. Teams have asked for top prospects Nick Senzel and Taylor Trammell in trade talks and Cincinnati keeps steering them to India, the fifth overall pick in last year’s draft. “For him to be available all winter is telling,” said one rival executive to Rosenthal, who indicated the Reds may have already soured on India because he hit .240/.380/.433 (129 wRC+) in 44 games in his pro debut. That was after a .350/.497/.717 line at Florida last spring. Jonathan Mayo and Kiley McDaniel have since reported that no, the Reds aren’t shopping India, other teams just keep asking about him. I figured that was coming. If a report comes out you are shopping last year’s fifth overall pick, you have to do some damage control. Anyway, I bring this up because the Yankees absolutely should go after India if the Reds have truly soured on him. MLB.com currently ranks him as the 53rd best prospect in the game. Here’s a snippet of their scouting report:

With an advanced approach at the plate, he has excellent plate discipline and the ability to hit for average that should translate. India also has flashes of above-average power. Despite not being too speedy, he can be deceptively quick and is a solid baserunner with great instincts. A third baseman in college, India played there and at shortstop and could also likely man second base. He has a strong above-average arm with fielding skills and athleticism that would likely enable him to play multiple positions well.

That’s a guy I want in the system. I imagine the Yankees asked for India during Sonny Gray trade talks — they reportedly asked for Trammell, and likely worked their way down the line until settling on Shed Long — and perhaps this is something they can revisit. India’s name has come up in J.T. Realmuto trade talks and maybe the Yankees can get involved and make it a three-team trade. India to the Yankees, Estevan Florial (and others?) to the Reds, who then get flipped to the Marlins for Realmuto? I like Florial but I’d trade him for India in a nanosecond. The Yankees are loaded with high-end outfield prospects and short on high-end infield prospects at the moment, and elite (or potentially elite) infield talent is very hard to acquire. Get it while you can. India was my favorite prospect in last year’s draft — I never bothered to write up an RAB draft profile on him because there was no chance he’d fall to the Yankees — and if he is available, I hope the Yankees would make a strong effort to get him.

5. Two things I’d love to see that will never ever ever (ever) happen: One, Harper and/or Machado go to Japan or Korea for the 2019 season. They’d hit like 60 homers and it would be utterly humiliating for MLB, and MLB could use a good humbling. It won’t happen for many reasons, of course, chief among them being money. Even at an extreme discount, those two would make much more here than they would overseas (the highest paid player in Japan made less than $5M last year). You get the idea though. And two, the MLBPA proposes a “salary cap” for team profit. Profit exceeds the cap? Then the rest goes into MLB’s central fund. Or, better yet, it gets redistributed to teams that don’t exceed the cap. (Why is it always the players who need to have their earnings capped?) Either spend that excess profit on players and other baseball upgrades (minor league wages, ballpark improvements, etc.), or it goes away. Think that would light a fire under free agency? Can you tell I’m angry over the state of baseball? Because I’m angry over the state of baseball. Revenues are at an all-time high. There has never ever been more money in the game than right now, yet we get this bore of an offseason and a ton of crappy baseball teams because more than one-third of the league is not trying to be competitive. They don’t even hide it anymore. As fans, we are the ones who suffer. For the umpteenth straight year it will be more expensive to be a baseball fan this season than it was last season because prices continue to climb, and our reward is an increasingly crummy product. The product on the field is worse because competitive integrity has taken a backseat to pocketing revenue, and what is even the point of paying attention in the offseason? Nothing happening day after day is exhausting. I love baseball and hate baseball teams. What a mess the league is right now.

6. Speaking of the crummy market, last week I was reading something Buster Olney (subs. req’d) wrote about the Twins and their young players, and within that piece he said “(Miguel) Sano turns 26 in May, and considering the trends in the sport, it’s possible he’s closer to the end of his career in the majors than the beginning.” I read that and I did the Alonzo Mourning GIF.

It sounded preposterous at first, then I realized it is 100% true. How screwed up is baseball that a player with Sano’s talent and MLB success — this dude is one year removed from a .264/.352/.507 (124 wRC+) batting line with 28 homers in 114 games as a 24-year-old — might actually be closer to the end of his career than the beginning? I get that Sano has had some injury and conditioning issues, and that position-less right-handed sluggers are not the hottest commodity, but damn yo. The same concept applies to Aaron Judge, doesn’t it? He might be closer to the end than the beginning too. Trying to explain why owners are being cheap without saying “owners are cheap” is a daily thing now, with reporters and fans alike attributing it to front offices being smarter, which is generally true. Except Dietrich and Marwin are 29 and play everywhere and apparently no one wants them. Machado and Harper are 26! I get that they’re going to be expensive but they are 26 and awesome. If teams won’t pay them, who will they pay? That someone like Sano, who is so clearly talented and still months away from his 26th birthday, can be reasonably assumed to be closer to the end of his career than the beginning bothers me. Aren’t teams supposed to be tanking to get players like Sano? Now we’re already talking about him like he’s on the downside of his career.

7. Earlier this week it was reported a woman died after being hit in the head by a foul ball at Dodger Stadium last August. Here’s the story. She was behind the plate on the first base side, a foul ball went over the netting, and struck her in the head. Three days later she was unresponsive and taken off life support. Every team extended the netting to the ends of the dugouts last year after that little girl was hit by Todd Frazier’s foul ball in Yankee Stadium in September 2017, which is a start, but it really should be extended more. Extended and raised. If you’ve been reading RAB long enough, you know I am pro-netting. Players are bigger and stronger and they hit the ball harder than ever before, and MLB should not cut corners on safety. Telling fans to pay attention rather than stare at their phone is not a realistic solution. Complaining the netting interferes with the view is a weak excuse. It took a little girl getting hit in the head for the league to finally extend the netting. Hopefully some good comes from the woman’s death last year and teams will extend the netting further and raise it higher. Perhaps one of these days MLB will be proactive about this and prioritize fan safety without being pushed into action by a traumatic event. Even one serious incident is too many.

A lesson to take from the Sonny Gray disappointment

February 5, 2019 by Derek Albin

The Sonny Gray era in New York came and went much faster than anyone could have expected. He was one of the 2017’s trade deadlines prizes: an already successful 27 year-old with two more seasons under team control. Aside from a rough 2016, Gray was excellent in Oakland and recorded a 3.42 ERA in 705 innings. Alas, Gray was not the same pitcher in pinstripes. He was decent down the stretch in 2017, but 2018 was an abject disaster. Enough so that the Yankees were ready to move on.

Hindsight makes for easy judgement, but the truth is that the Gray trade was a sound decision at the time. How he was handled after joining the club is where we can find fault. It’s also a learning opportunity. In this case: if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Gray built his career relying heavily on his fastball and sinker, only going to a curveball or slider as needed. Once he joined the Yankees, that allocation changed.

Since 2015, Yankees’ hurlers have thrown 46 percent non-fastballs. That’s easily the most frequent in baseball, ahead of the second-place Dodgers (43.4 percent). This isn’t a coincidence. Gray, at least in the Yankees’ eyes, was the perfect pitcher to implement this philosophy. The thought was that he didn’t use his curveball or slider enough. Low usage and high spin rates undoubtedly enticed the Yankees, who saw the under-utilization as an opportunity. Instead, it might have been his downfall.

Marrying the Yankees’ philosophy to Gray’s pitch usage didn’t happen in earnest until 2018. Perhaps that’s why Gray was actually decent in the second half of 2017 (3.72 ERA). Although Gray still leaned on hard pitches in 2018, the gap substantially shrunk. For all the debate about having Austin Romine as his personal catcher and whether or not he could handle the Big Apple, maybe more fault should be on the shoulders of the team.

Going forward, the Yankees are unlikely to abandon this pitching style. Hitters have more success against fastballs, so the evidence is in the team’s favor. However, if there are any takeaway from the Gray Saga, it’s that a one size fits all approach isn’t for the best. Sure, a pitcher could have excellent underlying Statcast metrics on his curve or slider, but that doesn’t mean those pitches need to be thrown more often. If a guy has had past success without throwing them at a high rate, why change? Making drastic adjustments for a struggling pitcher or one who doesn’t have a good fastball is one thing. That wasn’t the case for Gray.

On the bright side, the acquisitions of J.A. Happ and James Paxton are of some solace. Granted, neither have breaking balls with elite spin rates like Gray, so it’s not like the Yankees were going to try anything new. Rather, it’s the fact that the Yankees were willing to trade for them despite not aligning with the club’s pitching blueprint. Happ and Paxton go to their heat around 75 percent of the time, yet that didn’t scare the Yankees away. Perhaps this is an indication that the Yankees no longer feel the need to find guys that they can mold into their vision. Whatever the case may be, I don’t think they’ll try changing anyone’s pitch usage again anytime soon, unless it’s a last resort.

Two surprise Spring Training non-roster invitees and three notable omissions

February 5, 2019 by Mike

In eight days pitchers and catchers will report to Spring Training and begin the long journey that is the 2019 season. Position players will follow five days later, then, five days after that, the Yankees will play their first Grapefruit League game. We’re closing in on real live baseball. Thank goodness for that.

With Spring Training coming up, the Yankees announced their non-roster invitees late last week, and by and large the 21 names were as expected. There are veteran journeymen on minor league contracts, notable prospects like Estevan Florial and Mike King, and mid-range prospects like Kyle Holder. Same thing year after year after year.

There are, inevitably, a few surprise non-roster invitees each spring. Surprise invitees and surprise omissions. Some guys you don’t expect get invited to camp and some guys you expect don’t get invited to camp. Here are two surprise non-roster invitees and three notable omissions from big league camp.

Surprise Non-Roster Invitees

RHP Cale Coshow
The Yankees brought Coshow, now 26, to Spring Training as a non-roster player last year, so I suppose it is not that surprising he was invited again this year. Coshow struggled with Triple-A Scranton last year, however, throwing 56.1 innings with a 4.95 ERA (4.61 FIP) and a good strikeout rate (26.3%), but too many walks (11.2%) and too many homers (1.44 HR/9). Here is a snippet of 2080 Baseball’s most recent scouting report:

His plus to double-plus fastball was sitting comfortably at 93-to-96 mph (T97) and it’s a real weapon that he uses aggressively, but his command of the offering is below average … His slider is average, but inconsistent … It’s hard to see the stuff playing at the major league level if the fastball command and control profile don’t improve, and the best outcome is that of high-risk Role 30, AAAA emergency arm used in sixth-or-seventh innings, as there’s too much risk deploying him in the high-leverage, late-inning situations that the Yankees might have envisioned his raw stuff being suited for.

Hey, there’s value in being an up-and-down depth arm. It’s not glamorous but it gets you a big league paycheck every once in a while. If the Yankees believe Coshow can be a shuttle reliever — inviting him to camp suggests the team believes he can have some sort of MLB role — then it’s worth bringing him to Spring Training for a look. See what the big league coaching staff thinks and make an evaluation.

There are a few reasons I thought Coshow would not get an invite to camp. One, he had a tough year in Triple-A last season. Two, he looks to be no higher than 12th on the bullpen depth chart. And three, he’s now been passed over in the Rule 5 Draft three times, which is a pretty good indication the rest of the league doesn’t see much MLB value. Instead, Coshow will be back in big league camp this spring, and that means he’ll have a chance to show teams they were wrong to overlook him.

1B Mike Ford
This will be Ford’s first big league camp with the Yankees. He was in camp with the Mariners as a Rule 5 Draft last spring, did not make the team, then was returned to the Yankees before Opening Day. In his first full Triple-A season the 26-year-old put up a decidedly meh .253/.327/.433 (114 wRC+) batting line with 15 homers and the lowest walk rate (9.0%) of his career in 410 plate appearances. For a bat-only first baseman, that’s not good.

Luke Voit and Greg Bird are set to compete for the big league first base job in Spring Training — Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone have indicated it is Voit’s job to lose — plus DJ LeMahieu figures to see time at the position as well. The Yankees are planning to use LeMahieu as something of a super utility guy and getting familiar with first base will be a necessity. Other non-roster guys like Ryan Lavarnway and Francisco Diaz have first base experience as well.

To me, Ford is at best fourth on the first base depth chart behind Voit, Bird, and LeMahieu, and my hunch is if Voit and Bird don’t work out, the Yankees would look outside the organization for help rather than play LeMahieu and his non-first base caliber bat at first base full-time. Ford figures to play in the late innings of Grapefruit League games, against minor leaguers, and I’m not sure there’s anything he can do in those spots to show the Yankees he’s a viable first base depth option. There’s no harm in bringing him to camp, of course. I just didn’t expect it to happen.

Notable Non-Roster Omissions

RHP J.P. Feyereisen
Feyereisen, like Coshow, is a hard-throwing righty with bad command who’s been passed over in numerous Rule 5 Drafts. The 26-year-old who had a 4.95 ERA (4.61 FIP) in Triple-A last year was invited to big league camp. The 25-year-old with a 3.45 ERA (3.75 FIP) in Triple-A last year was not invited to big league camp. There is of course much more to life than Triple-A ERA and FIP. A quick glance at the surface stats is enough to make you go “huh” though.

This will be Coshow’s second big league camp and it would’ve been Feyereisen’s third. Maybe the Yankees give these fringy bad command relievers two camps to strut their stuff and that’s it? The simplest possible explanation is the most likely explanation: The Yankees like Coshow better than Feyereisen. Feyereisen, the fourth piece in the Andrew Miller trade, may’ve had the better Triple-A numbers last year, but the analytics may like Coshow more. I expected Feyereisen to get a non-roster invitee before Coshow. Shows what I know.

RHP Nick Nelson
The Yankees have several interesting power arms slated to begin the 2019 season with Double-A Trenton and Nelson is chief among them. The 23-year-old had 3.55 ERA (3.12 FIP) with 27.5% strikeouts and a few too many walks (12.1%) in 121.1 innings at three levels last year, including Double-A. Here’s a piece of 2080 Baseball’s latest scouting report:

(He) generates plus velocity (touching 98 mph at best, sitting 94-to-96 mph) from core muscles and efficient mechanics. A high-70s curveball shows sharp bite and tight two-plane depth at best, though he struggles to keep the pitch for strikes right now. His 86-to-89 mph changeup is thrown too hard but shows promising armside dive at best … his three-pitch mix gives the best-case ceiling of a power back-rotation type. It’s easy to see Nelson in a bullpen role if he needs a long-term fallback.

Nelson was a two-way player in college who has been pitching full-time for only two and a half seasons, so while he reached Double-A last year, he’s not the experienced pitching prospect. He will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season though, and I thought the Yankees would want to get him in front of the big league coaching staff at least once before the 40-man roster decision. I guess not.

Even with limited full-time pitching experience and some control issues, the 23-year-old Nelson topped 100 innings each of the last two seasons, and his stuff is plenty good enough to face rusty big leaguers in exhibition games. Bringing Nelson to camp this year would’ve been akin to bringing Dillon Tate to camp last year. That big-armed righty coming up on Rule 5 Draft eligibility who, if you squint your eyes, you could see helping the Yankees in a relief role in the coming season.

RHP Trevor Stephan
Stephan is another one of those interesting arms slated to begin the season in Double-A. He spent way more time at Double-A last year than Nelson (83.1 innings to 8.2 innings), and his overall performance was very good. Stephen tossed 124.1 total innings with a 3.69 ERA (3.60 FIP) and strong strikeout (26.8 K%) and walk (7.3 BB%) rates. He’s a fastball/slider guy with a funky delivery who is hell on righties.

The Yankees selected Stephan with their third round pick in the 2017 draft, so he only has one full pro season under his belt, but that lack of experience hasn’t stopped them from bringing pitchers to big league camp before. Taylor Widener was a non-roster invitee with one pro season last year. Same with James Kaprielian and Chance Adams the year before. Lack of pro experience isn’t a dealbreaker.

Stephen not being invited to big league camp surprises me more than any other non-roster non-invite this year. He’s a quality prospect with bat-missing stuff and Double-A experience, and once you’re in Double-A, you’re an MLB option. Ask Jonathan Loaisiga. He jumped from Double-A to MLB last season. Skipped right over Triple-A. Stephan throws enough strikes that debuting in a bullpen role this year is not impossible. Likely? No. But I thought the Yankees would want to get a look at him in big league camp given his proximity to the show. Guess not.

* * *

Receiving a non-roster invite does not mean the player is destined for a big league role. Coshow could just be an inventory arm to pitch those late innings in the first few Grapefruit League games. Also, not receiving an invitation to big league camp is not the end of the world either. Stephen Tarpley did not get a non-roster invite last year and he wound up on the ALDS roster. Force the issue and the Yankees will give you a chance.

Given the first base depth chart, I was surprised to see Ford get a non-roster invite — how much has to go wrong for him to start at first base in the Bronx at some point this year? — and I definitely thought one of those Double-A arms like Nelson or Stephan would get a look in camp. The Yankees have a lot of pitching prospects at the moment. An awful lot. Other than King, none of them will be in camp. From a selfish “I want to see prospects in Spring Training!” perspective, it’s a bummer.

The Giants are one of the few possible trade suitors for Jacoby Ellsbury and they’ve “talked about” a deal

February 5, 2019 by Mike

The Yankees won 100 games last season despite getting nothing — literally zero plate appearances and zero defensive innings — from their third highest paid player. Jacoby Ellsbury was hurt all year but don’t blame him for his contract. That’s on the Yankees. How could he say no to that offer? The team’s success without Ellsbury shows how little the Yankees need him right now. He’s a non-factor.

Ellsbury had season-ending hip surgery in August and he is questionable for Opening Day according to Brian Cashman’s most recent update, which came in October and is not all that recent. The Yankees do have an open bench spot and Ellsbury could slot in there. It’s also possible Ellsbury has already played his final game as a Yankee. He’s so far out of the picture right now that the club could release him once healthy and move forward with Clint Frazier (or someone else) in that bench spot.

Despite his lost 2018 season, there have been some trade rumblings involving Ellsbury this winter. The Yankees and Mariners discussed an Ellsbury-for-Robinson Cano swap at some point, and Cashman said other clubs have asked about Ellsbury in what he called “money-laundering” scenarios. A bad contract-for-bad contract swap, basically. Ellsbury is still on the roster, so obviously those conversations didn’t go anywhere, but they did happen.

According to Buster Olney, the Giants have “talked about” Ellsbury as they pursue outfield help. Talked to the Yankees about Ellsbury? Only talked internally about Ellsbury? Who knows. San Francisco has considered Ellsbury. That much we know. Whether they engaged the Yankees in trade talks is another matter. Let’s talk about this a bit.

1. What do the Giants have to offer? As you’d expect, Olney says a bad contract-for-bad contract swap would be the likely outcome. You can forget unloading Ellsbury’s entire contract, or even most of it. Maybe the Yankees would eat enough salary to turn him into a $5M per year player and get a prospect back? I suppose. Some cash savings and a prospect is a good outcome in my book.

Anyway, the Giants have a lot of bad contracts right now. They’re currently where the Phillies were in 2012. Lots of money tied up in declining players with a crash coming. The crash has come already, really. San Francisco lost 98 games in 2017 and 89 games in 2018. Ellsbury is owed approximately $47.5M the next two years with a $21.86M luxury tax hit. Some possible matches:

Johnny Cueto: $68M through 2021 ($21.67M luxury tax hit)
Jeff Samardzija: $39.6M through 2020 ($18M luxury tax hit)
Brandon Belt: $51.6M through 2021 ($17.2M luxury tax hit)
Brandon Crawford: $45.6M through 2021 ($12.5M luxury tax hit)
Evan Longoria: $73.18M through 2022 ($11.17M luxury tax hit)

Hard pass on Longoria, who is signed for another four years and is declining every way possible. Offensively (.285 OBP in 2018), defensively (-4.4 UZR), you name it. Crawford has slipped a bit since his 2014-16 peak but is still a quality two-way shortstop and those are tough to find. I don’t see why the Giants would trade him for Ellsbury. It doesn’t make sense for them on the field or financially.

Buster Posey is recovering from his own hip surgery and will presumably see more time at first base going forward. That figures to make Belt expendable and Ellsbury-for-Belt would work for the Yankees. They’d get a lefty first base bat and the total salary is close to a wash, though it’d be spread across three years rather than two. Ellsbury and Greg Bird for Belt? Maybe? Possibly? I feel like San Francisco could fetch more for Belt. Maybe I’m wrong.

Ellsbury-for-Cueto would be very complicated. For starters, Cueto is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is unlikely to pitch this year, so he does nothing for the 2019 Yankees. He’d be a pickup for 2020-21. Secondly, Ellsbury and Cueto have nearly identical luxury tax hits, but Cueto has another year on his contract and more money coming to him. I think the Giants would jump all over a straight-up trade given the money situation.

An Ellsbury-for-Cueto deal would require some work to make both sides happy financially. I could see the Yankees taking on salary in exchange for a lower luxury tax hit (i.e. Ellsbury-for-Belt). Taking on salary for the same luxury tax hit though? Nah. From a baseball perspective, the Yankees would swap an outfielder they don’t really need for a potential 2020-21 rotation option. Someone to replace CC Sabathia next year and provide depth. Could be cool?

To me, Ellsbury-for-Samardzija is the most realistic scenario. A straight up trade would give the Yankees a serviceable swingman and save money, so, in that sense, go for it. The Yankees would presumably have to eat money to make this work though. The Yankees trade an outfielder they don’t need for a possible swingman. The Giants trade a starter they (probably) don’t need for an outfielder. Both sides would deal from depth to address a weakness.

San Francisco has several bad contracts on the books and multiple outfield openings, so, on paper, they’re probably the best fit for an Ellsbury trade. That doesn’t mean a trade will happen, of course. Ellsbury-for-Samardzija makes the most sense and seems most doable to me. Ellsbury-for-Cueto would be really complicated, Ellsbury-for-Belt or Ellsbury-for-Crawford strikes me as a bad fit for the Giants, and Ellsbury-for-Longoria gets a hard no from me.

2. What about Ellsbury’s insurance? This might be the single biggest hangup in an Ellsbury swap. The Yankees have insurance on Ellsbury’s contract — they reportedly recouped $15.9M of his $21.14M salary last year — though that doesn’t help the luxury tax situation. It does save the team real dollars though. Why trade Ellsbury for Samardzija when you could potentially save millions through insurance, and sign a Samardzija-caliber pitcher on the cheap?

We haven’t had an update on Ellsbury’s hip surgery rehab in a while now and it could be that he isn’t expected to miss enough time for the insurance policy to kick in. Usually the player has to spend so many days on the disabled list before the insurance company starts to pay out. In a screwed up way, Ellsbury missing time makes him less valuable to other teams (because he’s still hurt) but more valuable to the Yankees (because insurance pays out).

3. Couldn’t the Giants just sign a free agent? I mean, yeah. This is what I don’t understand. Cot’s says the Giants are $34.4M under the $206M luxury tax threshold. Couldn’t they just sign Adam Jones or Curtis Granderson for $5M or so and get a healthy outfielder without going through the hassle of a bad contract-for-bad contract trade? If they could unload future dollars with a Cueto or Longoria deal, I’d get it. Otherwise … why?

Perhaps money in San Francisco is tighter than I realize. They did reset their luxury tax rate last year, so that’s good, but they also saw attendance decline for the fourth straight year. The World Series(es) honeymoon seems to be over. Plus every team is cutting payroll nowadays. Why sign a free agent when you could trade for some other team’s busted player and not add payroll? Unless it’s a Cueto or Longoria situation, where significant future dollars are cleared up, I don’t get whey the Giants would want Ellsbury over a free agent. Then again, it’s not my job to get it, so there you go.

4. Would Ellsbury waive his no-trade clause? Beats me. The Giants are pretty bad, but they are closer to Ellsbury’s home in Arizona and his family in Oregon, plus there is a (much) clearer path to playing time with San Francisco than there is with the Yankees. For what it’s worth, Samardzija (eight teams) and Belt (ten teams) have limited no-trade clauses. Crawford has a full no-trade clause and neither Longoria nor Cueto have no-trade protection.

* * *

Olney’s report is quite vague (isn’t every hot stove rumor vague these days?) so it’s unclear how much interest the Giants have in Ellsbury. Is this something they kicked around the office the way every team discusses every player each offseason? Or did they have sincere “hey, this could work for us” talks? The rumor passes the sniff test in that the Giants need outfielders and they have ammo for a bad contract-for-bad contract trade.

On paper, the Yankees have no real use for Ellsbury right now. That was even more true last year, yet there was Jace Peterson in left field nine games into the season, and Shane Robinson in right field much of August. If the Yankees can work out a bad contract-for-bad contract trade and turn Ellsbury into a piece that better fits the roster, great. If not, they’ll wait until he’s healthy and recoup as much as insurance money as possible in the meantime, then figure out whether he fits the roster.

Adam Ottavino’s suddenly extreme stolen base problem

February 4, 2019 by Mike

Two weeks ago the Yankees made their latest (final?) free agent splash when they signed righty reliever Adam Ottavino to a three-year contract. Ottavino is fascinating from a stathead perspective because he’s into analytics and used them to get better last offseason. He’s also a native New Yorker like Dellin Betances, which is pretty cool. Only six players from the five boroughs appeared in a game last year.

Ottavino and Betances have something in common besides their hometown: They’re prone to stolen bases. Dellin’s stolen base issues really came to a head in 2016, when runners went 21-for-21 against him, but, to his credit, he has gotten better at combating the stolen base. Look:

2016: 21-for-21 (stolen base attempted in 17.9% of opportunities)
2017-18: 21-for-26 (stolen base attempted in 13.9% of opportunities)

Betances is still way worse than the league average — runners attempted to steal in 5.2% of their opportunities in 2018 — but there has been some improvement and that’s not nothing. Dellin shortened up his leg kick to be quicker to the plate and we’ve even seen him make pickoff throws to first base. Not great pickoff throws, but pickoff throws nonetheless. It’s the thought that counts.

Ottavino’s stolen base issues last year were about as bad as Betances’ were in 2016. Runners went 24-for-27 (89% success rate) against him and they attempted a steal once every four opportunities. That was the highest attempt rate in baseball and it wasn’t close either. Here are the highest attempt rates (min. 15 attempts):

Adam Ottavino: 27 attempts in 108 opportunities (25.0%)
Sam Dyson: 19 attempts in 101 opportunities (18.8%)
Tyler Glasnow: 27 attempts in 146 opportunities (18.5%)
Dellin Betances: 15 attempts in 95 opportunities (15.7%)
Noah Syndergaard: 35 attempts in 226 opportunities (15.5%)

One of the three runners who was caught stealing with Ottavino on the mound was Matt Wieters, a slow-footed catcher. Another was Paul DeJong on this play. DeJong beat the throw and was safe, but he overslid the bag and was called following replay. The only “legitimate” caught stealing with Ottavino on the mound last year was this play, when Freddy Galvis got a terrible jump:

Runners attempted a stolen base against Ottavino roughly five times more often than the league average last year. I went back five years and didn’t find another pitcher with a stolen base attempt rate that high. In 2017 runners attempted a stolen base against Ottavino in 12.9% of their opportunities. It was 3.4% in 2014, his last full season before Tommy John surgery limited him to 37.1 total innings from 2015-16. His rate wasn’t always this high.

We have data on a lot of things these days but one of those things is not pitcher delivery times. To the untrained eye, Ottavino looks pretty slow to the plate. Colorado’s primary catchers (Chris Iannetta and Tony Wolters) are not particularly good throwers, which didn’t help matters. I’m not sure whether Ottavino has pickoff throw issues. Being slow to the plate seems like the primary culprit here. That makes Ottavino an easy target.

A late-inning reliever who is slow to the plate and prone to stolen bases is suboptimal. It’s not the end of the world — Betances and Chad Green (12.4% attempt rate) allowed plenty of stolen base attempts last year and they were great — but it’s not ideal either. The league catches on quick. Once a weakness is found, teams will exploit it until the player adjusts or is out of the league. You can be sure the Rays and Red Sox are aware of Ottavino’s stolen base issues already.

Gary Sanchez is one of the best throwing catchers in baseball, far better than Iannetta and Wolters, which could help Ottavino to some degree. The 2018 throwing data:

Sanchez: 1.94 second pop-time and 86.8 mph average throw
Romine: 2.04 second pop-time and 84.5 mph average throw
Iannetta: 2.04 second pop-time and 81.4 mph average throw
Wolters: 1.99 second pop-time and 78.5 mph average throw

Sanchez had the fourth highest average throw velocity and the sixth highest average pop-time among the 67 catchers to make at least ten throws last year. Gary, Jorge Alfaro (1.94 and 90.8), and J.T. Realmuto (1.90 and 87.8) are in a class of their own when it comes to throwing. They rank top six in both pop time and throw velocity. No one else is particularly close to doing both that well.

Throwing to Sanchez rather than Iannetta and Wolters could help Ottavino avoid stolen bases going forward, but remember, Gary spent time behind the plate with Betances in 2016, and that didn’t stop the steals. Runners went 6-for-6 stealing bases against Dellin in his 12 innings with Sanchez in 2016. When the pitcher is slow to the plate, there’s only so much the catcher can do to prevent steals.

The potential x-factor here is Ottavino’s ability and willingness to make pickoff throws. Some pitchers are just flat out terrible throwing over to first base. They’re uncomfortable doing it for whatever reason. The Yankees got Betances to make some pickoff throws the last two years and, if Ottavino has an issue with them, the club might be able to help him get over it too. If Ottavino is okay with pickoff throws, well, that’s one fewer potential solution.

Ottavino has always been an easy target for stolen bases — he went into the 2018 season with a career 10.3% attempt rate — but last season was extreme even for him. Perhaps it was a fluky outlier year? Betances allowed 21 steals in 2016 and 21 steals total in the two years since. Stolen bases are on the decline league-wide and, in this era of launch angle, I see no reason to believe that trend will reverse anytime soon. That is now how the game is played nowadays.

The threat of a stolen base always seems to cause more panic than an actual stolen base. Even if we are talking about 20-ish stolen bases, it’s 20-ish stolen bases across 70-something innings, and not every stolen base leads to a run. (Nine of the 24 steals Ottavino allowed last year led to a run.) The few extra runs they do create hurt, especially with Ottavino likely to see high-leverage work, but the steals are a nuisance more than a fatal flaw.

Ottavino’s stolen base issues may be somewhat curbed going forward thanks to having Sanchez behind the plate and the chance teams won’t attempt that many steals again. Also, the Yankees are not stupid. They knew what they were getting into with Ottavino and likely have some ideas to help him better hold runners. Pickoff throws, varying times, etc. They have experience with stolen base prone pitchers and will put it to work with Ottavino.

James Paxton’s command and the effect of his batterymates

February 4, 2019 by Derek Albin

Anytime a player is traded to a new team, new experiences await. Whether it’s a new home, new city, new mound, new teammates…the list goes on. James Paxton was traded to the Yankees in November, so he’s had ample time to get his living arrangements in order. What he hasn’t had a chance to do is build a rapport with his new batterymates, Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine. Fortunately, spring training will be an opportunity to do so.

Being familiar with one another is important in the pitcher-catcher relationship, but there are certain traits that are unique to both positions. In particular, the catcher can’t aim a pitcher’s offering, and the pitcher doesn’t have the ability to frame a pitch. Paxton comes to the Yankees presumably as the same pitcher he was with the Mariners, but he won’t be pitching to the same catcher anymore. How do the Yankees’ catchers, Sanchez in particular, since he should get the bulk of Paxton’s innings, stack up against the southpaw’s former partner?

Tale of the tape: Zunino vs. Sanchez

Paxton will no longer pitch to one of baseball’s best defensive catchers, Mike Zunino. The bat never came around like Seattle hoped, but Zunino was an elite receiver from day one. He’s had some monster framing years, most notably 2014, when he racked up 22 framing runs. His framing stats have declined in recent years, but as Jeff Sullivan wrote, part of this is due to the rest of the league catching on to framing.

Sanchez, who will be Paxton’s new main partner, receives plenty of hate for his defense. Passed balls are the reason for the disdain, but that doesn’t make him a bad receiver. There’s no question that he needs to improve his blocking, but he helps the defense in other ways, including throwing and pitch framing. The Yankees have bought into framing for over a decade, and Sanchez is yet another backstop who shines with his presentation.

Metric (2018)	Sanchez	Zunino
CSAA	0.005	0.008
CSAA Standard Deviation	+/- 0.002	+/- 0.002
Framing Runs/7000 opportunities	4.9	8.4
Framing Runs/7000 opportunities Standard Deviation	+/- 2.2	+/- 1.9
Called Strike% on Edge Pitches	50.02%	50.75%
Team Avg. FB Velocity	93.8	90.8
Team Avg. FB Spin	2331	2174
Team Avg. Breaking Spin	2532	2335

Zunino has an edge on Sanchez in Called Strikes Above Average (CSAA) and Framing Runs, though there is some uncertainty about this. Both catchers are within each other’s error bars, meaning that Sanchez could be just as good or better than Zunino. He could still be worse! But ultimately, there really isn’t a big difference between the two. They’re both good framers.

A big difference between the two are the pitching staffs they handle. Stylistically, the Yankees and Mariners are polar opposites. The Yankees ranked first, first, and second in team fastball velocity, fastball spin rate, and breaking ball spin rate, respectively. Seattle placed last, second to last, and fifth-worst, respectively, in those same categories. Simply put: Sanchez has a much tougher group to handle.

Although Zunino had an easier staff to catch, be aware that CSAA adjusts for the pitcher, among other things. It judges Zunino and Sanchez independent of who is on the mound. That doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t take the two different styles into consideration. Rather, perhaps it lends credence to the potential of Sanchez being in the positive range of his standard deviation while Zunino is in the negative range.

I’d be remiss without mentioning Romine here. He’s within the same range of certainty as Sanchez and Zunino, meaning that Paxton is also in good hands with him. Ideally, it won’t be more than a handful of starts that Romine needs to catch, but it’s reassuring to have a backup of Romine’s defensive caliber.

Catchers aside, what does Paxton bring to the table?

Paxton has excellent control

Pitchers who work quickly and fill up the strike zone are a manager’s dream. Paxton is just that. He challenges hitters with his fastball-heavy approach, knowing full well that they can’t catch up to him. Take a look:

Based on the above heatmap, it’s no surprise that Paxton had the fifth-highest called strike probability (CS Prob) of all starters last year. That’s the likelihood of any given pitch being a called strike, based on probabilities that are assigned to certain areas within and outside the strike zone. It’s best explained here, although the following diagram from that article is a great illustration as well:

Those rounded squares are different bands of called strike probability, with all pitches in the innermost area called a strike 90 percent of the time and all pitches in the outermost area called a strike 10 percent of the time. Keep in mind that these are not hard and fast lines of demarcation; the likelihood of a called strike gradually decreases as the area expands. Paxton lives in the 90 percent band, hence his high CS Prob.

Paxton doesn’t have great command

We’ve established that Paxton throws lots of strikes, but the quality of strikes is a different story. Getting strikes on pitches in the aforementioned 90 percent band isn’t challenging, but being able to locate pitches on the corners consistently is another thing.

CSAA, when used for pitchers, is a good proxy for command. Because CSProb assigns the likelihood of strike calls, CSAA can take this a step further by assessing the frequency of getting strikes at varying ranges of probability, controlled for things like the count, catcher, umpire, and hitter. Able to nab a bunch of strikes in a low probability area? Good command. Lose strikes in a higher probability area? Not so much. Anecdotally, a lot of pitchers lose strikes when they miss the target, forcing the catcher to make awkward movements. So how did Paxton do? He had the worst CSAA in baseball last season, at -3.38 percent.

I’m not so sure it’s fair to say that this means Paxton has the worst command in baseball, because after all, he just might not be trying to paint the corners. It’s not like he needs to. Plus, although he’s always been below average per CSAA, he’s been pretty consistent at throwing to the edge of the zone.

Year	Edge%	CSAA	CSProb
2013	45.10%	-0.88	48.80%
2014	47.90%	-1.02	45.30%
2015	45.10%	-0.76	47.50%
2016	49.20%	-1.33	50.40%
2017	46.60%	-1.98	50.00%
2018	46.40%	-3.38	53.00%

For whatever reason, Paxton got absolutely hosed on borderline fastballs compared to the rest of the league. You would think fastballs are the easiest pitches for umpires to judge since they are the straightest offering.

% of Edge Pitches Called Strikes
Pitch	Paxton	MLB
Fastball (4-Seam)	41.4% (379 pitches)	47.40%
Cutter	31.4% (35 pitches)	47.60%
Curveball	46.9% (96 pitches)	48.60%

So Paxton had virtually the same edge percentage in 2017 as he did in 2018, yet his CSAA tanked. Umpires didn’t give him the benefit of the doubt on fastballs near the corners. Bizarre.

Is Zunino to blame?

What makes Paxton’s poor CSAA surprising at first is that he’s thrown to a great framer for his entire career. How could he struggle to get the extra calls on the edges while throwing to a catcher that excels in that department? The key thing to understand is that Zunino is not the culprit. Pitcher CSAA level sets with who’s catching, hitting, and umpiring. The whole point of the stat is to try to isolate the pitcher’s contribution, all else being equal. So if this is on Paxton, why is it happening?

I looked at Paxton’s heatmap for edge pitches against the Mariners’ heat map for called strikes on the edge. Ideally, I would have compared Paxton to the entire league, but I could only generate the heat maps by team. For what it’s worth: all teams are pretty similar to the Mariners in this regard. Plenty of borderline low strikes called, but few at the top of the zone. The problem for Paxton? He throws a lot of high heaters. Now we’re getting somewhere (click image for large view).

Left: All of Paxton’s edge pitches. Right: All of Seattle’s edge pitches called for strikes.

I don’t want to overwhelm you with heatmaps, but there are a few other important ones to note that emphasize my point about Paxton’s high fastballs. Here is where he locates his fastball on the edges, here are his strike calls on the edges (on all pitch types), and here are the balls on the edges (on all pitch types). Keep in mind, Paxton throws his fastball around 65 percent of the time. So those strike calls you at the bottom of the edge? Those are rare.

Paxton works upstairs quite a bit with fastball, and those simply don’t get called strikes very often. CSAA doesn’t penalize Paxton too harshly for each pitch in that region, since it’s a low-probability strike. However, because he predominantly hits the upper edges, the penalty adds up. Add that to the lack of pitches thrown in the lower-right quadrant of the edge, where most extra strikes are picked up, doesn’t help Paxton either.

Why Sanchez and Paxton might pair better

Here’s what we know: Paxton throws a good portion of his edge pitches at the top of the zone, but umpires are disinclined to call high strikes. Even the best framers aren’t going to steal strikes up in the zone (click image for larger view):

Those are the locations where Zunino, Sanchez, and Romine received strikes on the black last season. All of them do well at the bottom of the box, to no surprise. The most noticeable difference is that Sanchez (and Romine, to a degree) do a tad better than Zunino as pitches elevate.

What gives me some hope, not that we need any for Paxton (he’s really good), is that he might get a few extra strikes at the top with Sanchez and Romine. However, we might not see this reflected in his CSAA, because it adjusts for who’s catching. Where we could see the impact is the percentage of fastballs called for strikes on the edge, which is a raw and unadjusted amount.

Zunino might be a better framer than anyone the Yankees have, but he also might not be the right match for a pitcher like Paxton. All positive framing catchers are going to do well stealing strikes down because it jibes with today’s umpiring. Zunino appears to build most of his framing value on low offerings. Sanchez and Romine do well there as well, but it’s not as concentrated as Zunino. Sanchez perhaps meshes best in terms of presenting Paxton’s high fastball. With guys like Chad Green and Aroldis Chapman on the roster, maybe it’s not a surprise that Sanchez has held his own on higher pitches. Those two have power fastballs and like to elevate them, similar to Paxton.

Chances are that Paxton’s transition to Sanchez and Romine will be a lateral one. The Yankees catchers are practically in a dead heat with Zunino when it comes to the advanced metrics. Any downside seems unlikely, as Sanchez and Romine would have to decline suddenly. Fortunately, there is no indication of that occurring anytime soon. The best case scenario is that Paxton will get high strikes more often in pinstripes. The adjusted metrics might not change, but the raw results could improve.

Fan Confidence Poll: February 4th, 2019

February 4, 2019 by Mike

2018 Regular Season Record: 100-62 (851 RS, 669 RA, 98-64 expected record), second in ALE
2018 Postseason Record: 2-3 (22 RS, 29 RA), won WC Game, lost ALDS