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River Ave. Blues » Trevor Stephan

DotF: Miller, Katoh have big days in Scranton’s doubleheader

April 27, 2019 by Mike

Both RHP Trevor Stephan and RHP Nick Nelson were placed on the Double-A Trenton injured list recently. That’s not good. I’d say both are unlikely call-ups this year, but they are possible trade chips, and injuries could throw a wrench into things. Hopefully it’s nothing serious, whatever the injuries are.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders Game One (7-6 win over Syracuse in ten innings, walk-off style) completion of yesterday’s game, which was suspended due to rain after the top of the first inning

  • 1B-2B Brad Miller: 2-5, 2 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K — here’s video of the homer, which was a bomb … the team says it went 482 feet
  • SS Cliff Pennington: 1-5, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SB — walk-off homer … three homers in 15 games … the MLB ball and Triple-A pitching makes for a hell of a combination
  • RF Trey Amburgey: 2-4, 1 2B, 1 BB
  • C Kyle Higashioka: 0-3, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 K — first game since being sent down
  • 2B-3B Gosuke Katoh: 3-4, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 E (fielding) — now hitting .353/.431/.686 through 15 Triple-A games
  • RHP Drew Hutchison: 5.2 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 5/3 GB/FB — 72 of 107 pitches were strikes (67%)
  • LHP Rex Brothers: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 1 WP, 2/0 GB/FB — 26 of 44 pitches were strikes (59%) … 15/4 K/BB in 9.1 innings

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Down on the Farm Tagged With: Nick Nelson, Trevor Stephan

An Important Year in the Farm System [2019 Season Preview]

March 26, 2019 by Mike

Florial. (Presswire)

Two years ago the Yankees had arguably the top farm system in baseball. Uncharacteristically, they traded veterans for prospects at the 2016 trade deadline, and several of their own players took big steps forward with their development. Gleyber Torres came over in the Aroldis Chapman trade. Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Gary Sanchez, and Miguel Andujar? All originally drafted or signed by the Yankees.

That monster farm system of two years ago has become a powerhouse MLB team. The Yankees surprisingly won 91 games in 2017, not-so-surprisingly won 100 games in 2018, and now they go into 2019 on the very short list of realistic World Series contenders. They’ve graduated or traded many top prospects, and have tumbled down the farm system rankings as a result:

  • Baseball America: 20th
  • Baseball Prospectus: 12th
  • Keith Law: 19th

“Being ranked as everybody’s top farm system isn’t our goal. Our goal is to be ranked as winning the World Series,” said amateur scouting director Damon Oppenheimer to Greg Joyce last month. “… Everything’s a cycle in this thing. You get to a point where, if you’re going to try to win, you end up trading prospects. So we’ve traded quite a few guys over the last few years to help us acquire talent to help us win at the big league level, and that’s what we’re there to do. We’re in one of those cycles now where we gotta dump some more guys into the system.”

As the big league team contends this summer, the farm system will be in something of a rebuild, in that they have a plethora of young low minors prospects looking to take that step toward becoming the next wave of great Yankees prospects. The high-end upper minors talent isn’t there like it has been the last two years, and that could be an issue come trade deadline time. Time to preview the year ahead in the farm system.

Top Prospects Who Could Help This Season

There is only one: RHP Jonathan Loaisiga. In fact, the Yankees’ No. 2 prospect is set to join the rotation in a few days, after CC Sabathia’s five-game suspension ends. That is almost certainly a temporary move with Sabathia due to return in mid-April and Luis Severino hopefully sometime in early-May. Loaisiga is going to join the Yankees soon though, and that gives him a chance to help the team and force the club to keep him around longer.

Of course, Loaisiga has a long injury history and very limited experience (184.1 career innings!), plus he has never thrown a pitch in Triple-A, so he would presumably benefit from some Triple-A time. I imagine he’ll be returned to the minors at some point. Loaisiga has a quality three-pitch mix as well as good control, plus he seems unflappable on the mound, which are good traits for a young pitcher. Point is, Loaisiga is the only high-end upper minors prospect we figure to see in the Bronx this year.

Top Prospects Who (Probably) Won’t Help This Season

OF Estevan Florial, the Yankees’ top prospect, will begin the season on the injured list after breaking his wrist crashing into the outfield wall this spring. I suppose the good news is he’ll only be in a cast three weeks, meaning his recovery may not be as long as you’d expect. Three weeks in a cast seems to indicate he could be back in games sometime in May. That would be ideal. We’ll see.

The injury is unfortunate because Florial has a clear flaw in his pitch recognition — “I’m a young player. It’s tough to know what pitch to select. Try to know the pitch I can drive, and what I can’t, too,” Florial said to Brendan Kuty last month — and the only way to improve on that is with game reps. There’s no substitute for seeing live action pitching. Florial missed time with wrist surgery last year, so he has a lot of catching up to do. Once healthy, he’ll likely go to High-A Tampa or Double-A Trenton. Either way, we won’t see Florial in the big leagues this summer.

After Florial and Loaisiga, the next five best prospects in the farm system are all teenagers: C Anthony Seigler, OF Everson Pereira, OF Antonio Cabello, RHP Deivi Garcia, and RHP Roansy Contreras. On one hand, hooray for having so many very talented teenagers. On the other hand, none of those guys will come close to sniffing the big leagues. Seigler, Pereira, and Cabello may not even see full season ball this year, and Contreras could spend the entire season with Low-A Charleston.

Garcia made one Double-A spot start at the end of last season but he is unlikely to start this season at that level. Not after making only six (excellent) starts with High-A Tampa. Seems to me Deivi will return to Tampa for a few weeks before being bumped back up to Trenton. His best case scenario will be a late-season cameo with Triple-A Scranton. If we see Garcia in the big leagues this year, either something went very right (he really broke out) or very wrong (everyone got hurt).

Secondary Prospects Likely To Help This Season

Tarpley. (Presswire)

The Yankees will have at least one of their non-top prospects on the Opening Day roster. LHP Stephen Tarpley, who pitched well last September and was great this spring, will be in the bullpen. He definitely has a chance to carve out a long-term role this summer. In all likelihood though, Tarpley will ride the shuttle up and down a few times. That’s just how it goes for a young reliever with options, especially when he’s the last guy in the bullpen.

Another reliever we could see at some point: RHP Domingo Acevedo. Lindsey Adler says Acevedo pitched in relief in minor league camp this spring and the Yankees wouldn’t do that unless he was moving into the bullpen full-time. I’m definitely down with this. Acevedo has struggled to stay healthy as a starter and he still hasn’t developed his slider into a reliable third pitch. Let him air it out for an inning at a time with the big fastball (and changeup) and there’s a chance very good things will happen. I’m looking forward to seeing Acevedo in short relief stints.

RHP Chance Adams and RHP Mike King are the top two Triple-A depth starters at the moment, though King suffered a stress reaction in his elbow early in camp, and is still working his way back. He’s expected to join the RailRiders in early May. Once he does, King could jump ahead of Adams on the call-up list. He had a monster 2018 season statistically and, at least prior to the injury, had firmer stuff and control than Adams, who’s taken a step back the last two seasons. Still, Adams is on the 40-man roster, so we’ll see him work shuttle duty at some point.

Double-A hurlers RHP Trevor Stephan, RHP Garrett Whitlock, and RHP Nick Nelson probably will not see the big leagues this summer. They’re not on the 40-man roster yet — Stephan and Whitlock don’t have to be added to the 40-man until after next season — and there are a few guys ahead of them on the depth chart, but, anytime you begin the season in Double-A, you have a chance to play in MLB. They will, they do. Pitch well in Double-A and they’ll find themselves in Triple-A in short order, and force a call-up conversation.

The Mike Tauchman pickup and Tyler Wade demotion makes it less likely we will see IF Thairo Estrada this year, or at least see him anytime soon, especially after a lost season last year. A few weeks (months?) worth of at-bats with Triple-A Scranton is what Estrada needs right now, but, if the Yankees have a need at the MLB level and he’s the best option, they will call him up. I imagine we’ll see Thairo as at least a September call-up this summer.

Breakout Candidates

This is where all that young low minors talent comes into play. Guys like Seigler, Pereira, Cabello, and Contreras are prime breakout candidates who could put themselves into the top 100 prospect discussion after the season. (Deivi broke out last year, I’d say.) Pereira and Cabello in particular are very high upside players who could very well rank 1-2 in the farm system in a few months. They’re that good and that talented.

This year’s Pereira and Cabello, meaning the highly regarded international signings set to make their pro debut, should be OF Kevin Alcantara and RHP Osiel Rodriguez. Alcantara ($1M bonus) stood out for his hitting ability when he signed and he’s already growing into some power. Rodriguez ($600,000) boasts a deep power arsenal and, like many Cuban pitchers, he throws from a variety of arm angles to create deception.

Hard-throwing RHP Luis Gil kinda sorta broke out last year, and he might have the best fastball in the farm system. He’s upper-90s regularly and has a high spin rate on everything. Gil is the quintessential modern pitching prospect. RHP Juan Then and RHP Yoendrys Gomez are other young low minors guys who stand out more for their know-how and pitchability than lighting up the radar gun. That said, neither guy is short on stuff.

A few levels higher, the Yankees are finally set to turn 2017 first round pick RHP Clarke Schmidt loose. He returned from Tommy John surgery last year and pitched well in limited action. The Yankees will not be reckless with Schmidt — they don’t have him penciled him for 180 innings or anything — but he’ll finally get a chance to hold down a rotation spot and show what he can do. He’s been an afterthought since being drafted because of the Tommy John surgery. Schmidt’s kinda like adding a new prospect to the system all together.

Second tier outfield prospects like OF Josh Stowers and OF Anthony Garcia may not have the pure upside that Pereira and Cabello offer, though they do bring a lot to the table. In Garcia’s case, that means a lot of power. A lot. He’s a switch-hitter who can hit the ball a mile from both sides of the plate. Stowers is more well-rounded and will impact the game a lot of different ways. Offensively, defensively, on the bases, etc. He strikes me as a sneaky good breakout candidate.

Between international free agency and trades (Gil, Stowers, and Then were all acquired in trades), the Yankees have stocked the lower levels of the minors with exciting talent, and it was all by design. They picked up these kids very early in their careers — over the winter they traded for a pitching prospect yet to appear in a pro game — and will try to develop them into the next wave of top prospects. That’s the plan. The farm system may lack upper minors talent. In the low minors though, forget it. The Yankees are stacked, and that equals a small army of breakout candidates.

Returning From Injury

Technically, RHP Albert Abreu finished last year healthy, though injuries have given him trouble since coming over from the Astros in the Brian McCann trade. The power four-pitch mix is impressive. The lack of control and lack of durability are not. More than anything at this point, Abreu needs reps so he can work on refining his game. A full healthy season would be welcome in 2019. It could also land him a big league call-up at some point.

RHP Freicer Perez is a more traditional injury comeback story. He made six ugly starts last season before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. The good news? Perez only had bone spurs removed. His labrum, rotator cuff, and capsule are all intact. A lost season is a lost season though, and this year Perez will look to get back on track with a healthy shoulder. He went into last year as one of the top prospects in the system. Getting back to that level after shoulder surgery remains possible.

The forgotten pitching prospect in the system is RHP Glenn Otto, the Yankees’ fifth round pick in 2017. He made two starts with Low-A Charleston last year before having season-ending surgery to remove a blood clot from his shoulder. Yikes. When healthy, Otto showed a good low-to-mid-90s fastball with a hammer high-spin curveball that is seemingly allergic to bats. There were questions about his durability and changeup even before the surgery, but, even if Otto is a reliever long-term, he could be a good one. His coming out party is set for this summer.

Make or Break Year?

Holder. (Presswire)

The 2014-15 international spending spree, while well-intended, has worked out very poorly. Florial is far and away the best prospect to come out of that signing class and he was a small bonus guy later in the signing period, not a headliner. Many of those 2014-15 kids have already washed out. Others, like 3B Dermis Garcia and SS Hoy Jun Park, still have some prospect value. Not much, but some.

Garcia’s calling call remains (and always will be) his power. He moved down the defensive spectrum to first base last year — apparently he’s going to give third base another try this year — and plans to turn him into a two-way player were apparently put on hold. Dermis did throw bullpen sessions late last season but he never appeared in a game as a pitcher. Alas. Garcia will move up to High-A Tampa this year after two seasons with Low-A Charleston. Another year of contact and defensive issues mean you can probably close the book on his days as a serious prospect.

After Florial, Park probably has the best chance to reach the big leagues among 2014-15 signees. He’s a very good defensive middle infielder who draws a lot of walks and can steal bases, but is short on power and exit velocity. Power is tough to project these days because of changes to the baseball, so perhaps we shouldn’t ding Park too much. He has a chance to rebuild some prospect stock with Double-A Trenton this year. The concern is advanced pitchers will knock the bat out of his hands. This is a big year for Park.

IF Kyle Holder has Major League ready defensive tools, but he hasn’t hit much in his career to date, and we haven’t seen much progress either. To be fair to Holder, he dealt with serious injury (broken vertebrae) and off-the-field matters (his brother passed away) last season, so we should cut him a break on the lack of development. That said, he is a soon-to-be 25-year-old defensive wiz with little to offer at the plate. Another year without much offensive progress and it’ll be time to look ahead to other infield prospects.

I think OF Isiah Gilliam has reached make or break status as well. He’s closing in on his 23rd birthday and saw marked declines in his power output, his walk rate, and his strikeout rate after moving from Low-A Charleston to High-A Tampa last season. As a non-elite bat-only corner outfielder, it doesn’t take much to get left behind. Gilliam has to rebound with a strong season this year, likely back with Tampa, to avoid becoming an afterthought.

Prospects I Am Excited About

Gosh, there are lots. Seigler, Pereira, and Contreras are at the top of the list. I also can’t give up on RHP Luis Medina yet, even after he walked 46 batters in 36 rookie ball innings last year. Medina turns only 20 in May, and he lights up the radar gun with his fastball and has a knee-buckling high-spin curveball, and I just can’t give up on that despite the extreme control problems. Medina’s going to be a long-term project and I am willing to be patient because the upside is so great.

OF Raimfer Salinas should be in the Pereira and Cabello group — Salinas ($1.85M) received a larger signing bonus than Pereira ($1.4M) and Cabello ($1.35M), which tells you how much the Yankees like him — but finger and knee injuries cut short his pro debut last year. When healthy, he features an advanced approach at the plate with some power, as well as very good defensive chops. Salinas probably belongs in the “Breakout Candidates” group. I really like him. He has a lot of ability.

OF Pablo Olivares has long been a personal favorite with his “do everything well but nothing exceptionally” skill set. RHP Frank German and RHP Tanner Myatt are two 2018 draftees I like for different reasons. German has already gained velocity as a pro and features a nice little slider. Myatt is a huge (6-foot-7) extreme hard-thrower (up to 101 mph) with an occasionally great curveball. He reminds me a bit of Kyle Farnsworth, which I know will drive some people nuts, but Farnsworth played 16 years in the big leagues as a late-inning reliever. That would be a heck of an outcome for an 11th round pick like Myatt.

Will The Yankees Trade Any Of These Guys?

Of course they will. The Yankees are a win-now team, so if when they need help at the trade deadline, they will trade prospects in an effort to get over the hump. They did it the last two trade deadlines and there’s no reason to think they won’t do it again this year. That’s the entire point of a farm system. To help address big league roster needs, either by graduating prospects to the show, or by using them as trade chips.

To me, Nelson stands out as a potential trade candidate. He will be Rule 5 Draft after the season and I get the feeling he falls into the same category as Dillon Tate and Josh Rogers last year. The “good prospect the Yankees don’t really know what to do with who is on the 40-man roster bubble” group. The other Double-A arms like Abreu, Stephan, Whitlock could all become trade candidates given the club’s lack of high-end Triple-A talent. Double-A starters are the next best thing.

Even before the injury, I don’t think the Yankees would’ve hesitated for a second to trade Florial in the right deal. Would they give him away? No way. But Florial is their best chance to acquire an impact player on July 31st. As long as he comes back from the wrist injury well, his trade value should remain intact. The Yankees professed their love for Justus Sheffield right up until they traded him. I could see the same happening with Florial.

The Yankees traded 15 prospects in the days leading up to the last two trade deadlines. Some were big names (Blake Rutherford, James Kaprielian, Jorge Mateo, etc.) and many were second and third tier guys (Josh Rogers, Billy McKinney, Luis Rijo, Zack Littell). I think the Yankees are at the point where no prospect is off-limits. I thought Gleyber Torres was untouchable as it gets two years ago. Now? There’s no one in the system like that. Not even close.

Where Does The System Go From Here?

Because the system is built mainly around pitching and very young low minors prospects, the Yankees have a boom or bust farm system right now. If the pitchers stay healthy and some of those teenagers figure it out, this could again be one of the top systems in baseball, and I mean as soon as next spring. The Yankees have gotten pretty good at developing players, thankfully. The chances of a farm system breakout in 2019 aren’t small.

Then again, if some of those pitchers get hurt — I have 18 pitchers in my top 30 prospects list and normal attrition suggests a few of them are going to feel something that requires a lengthy shutdown, that’s just baseball — and those teenagers need more than one or two pro seasons to hit their stride, the Yankees will again have a system ranked in the bottom half of the league next year. It’s not the end of the world, but a great farm system is a heck of a lot more fun than a mediocre one.

“I believe our system is one of the stronger ones in the game. It’s just the timing of everything. (The top talent) just happens to be at the lower levels. We are very pitching deep with a lot of high-end young arms,” said Brian Cashman to Randy Miller last month. “I’m not saying the system rankings are wrong. I will tell you this: As long as our guys stay healthy and develop the way we think they’re capable of developing, the system rankings are going to be radically different next year.”

Filed Under: Minors Tagged With: 2019 Season Preview, Albert Abreu, Anthony Garcia, Anthony Seigler, Antonio Cabello, Chance Adams, Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia, Dermis Garcia, Domingo Acevedo, Estevan Florial, Everson Pereira, Frank German, Freicer Perez, Garrett Whitlock, Glenn Otto, Hoy Jun Park, Isiah Gilliam, Jonathan Loaisiga, Josh Stowers, Juan Then, Kevin Alcantara, Kyle Holder, Luis Gil, Luis Medina, Mike King, Nick Nelson, Osiel Rodriguez, Pablo Olivares, Raimfer Salinas, Roansy Contreras, Stephen Tarpley, Tanner Myatt, Thairo Estrada, Trevor Stephan, Yoendrys Gomez

The Scranton shuttle and other relief depth [2019 Season Preview]

March 15, 2019 by Derek Albin

(Presswire)

It’s pretty easy to predict how the Yankees are going to staff their bullpen this season. There are six players guaranteed a roster spot, barring injury. The team is planning to carry a 13 man pitching staff this year, meaning that there are two open spots assuming a five man starting rotation. Tommy Kahnle probably snags one of the two jobs considering he’s out of options. The last opening probably will be interchangeable throughout the season, though having a long reliever could be the outcome.

There are no shortage of relievers who could ride the Scranton shuttle this season, rotating as the 13th pitcher as needed. Some of them are already on the 40-man, while others are non-roster invitees. It would be easy to write off any of the foregoing players as significant contributors, but let’s not forget that what Jonathan Holder did last year. He went from being the main back-and-forth guy to a major league bullpen staple.

40-man shuttlers

Stephen Tarpley

There usually isn’t too much to say about a September call-up who’s a reliever. Yet, Tarpley has become a pretty fascinating pitcher to follow. The Yankees probably envision him as Zack Britton-lite, and there’s good reason why. Prior to Britton joining the Yankees, Tarpley spent some time shadowing him prior to the 2017 season. Who knows if that story would have been uncovered had Britton not been traded to New York.

Tarpley saw his groundball rate jump dramatically in 2017, almost certainly due to Britton’s influence. Combine that with the high strikeout rates in the high minors and you have an interesting relief prospect. Tarpley was pretty good in his 10 inning cameo last September and even made the playoff roster. He’ll probably get the bulk of the major league time that anyone else on the Scranton shuttle gets this summer.

Ben Heller

Tommy John surgery cost Heller all of 2018 and will curtail part of his 2019 as well. After going under the knife last April, he’s six weeks away rehab game action. That doesn’t mean he’s close to the big leagues, though. In all likelihood, he’s probably not an option until mid-season.

The Yankees acquired Heller as part of the Andrew Miller trade a few years ago. He’s already seen small parts of two major league seasons with the Yankees, totaling 18 innings. Best known for his mid-to-high 90s fastball, it’ll be interesting to see how his velocity returns this summer. Even though he’s already had a good deal of success in Triple-A, he’s probably going to spend a lot of time there this year.

Joe Harvey

Harvey was a somewhat surprising 40-man roster addition a few months ago. One of the reasons I profiled him in February was because I didn’t know anything about him. He’s still a bit of a mystery, though the Yankees clearly like him enough to save him a seat on the 40-man.

A little bit has been made about the spin rate on his fastball. It’s very good, and spin rate has become all the rage in baseball these days. Just look at what the Astros have done with their pitchers. Anyway, Harvey doesn’t appear to have much else other than a good fastball. Yet, if he puts up numbers like he did in the minors last year (sub 2 ERA), he’ll get his shot this summer.

Non-roster possibilities with big league experience

Danny Farquhar

As Mike wrote last month, it’s pretty easy to pull for Farquhar to carve out a role with the big club. It’s a distinct possibility that he could return to the majors after his near-death experience in the White Sox dugout last summer. As a non-roster invitee who’s already been sent to minor league camp, he’s still on the outside looking in. It’s not hard to see why the Yankees like him: he strikes out plenty of hitters and has had good seasons with Seattle and Tampa Bay. Plus, the Yankees have had him in the organization before, back in 2012. There’s still a lot for Farquhar to overcome, but if he resembles something of his old self he could be in pinstripes this year.

Rex Brothers

Brothers is representative of the adage that lefties never run out of opportunities. The southpaw was pretty impressive for the Rockies early in his career with his high velocity fastball. Eventually, Colorado cut bait when his control evaded him. After not making the Cubs in 2016, he sat out the entire season. Beginning in 2017, he worked his way back to the big leagues with Atlanta. His walk problems never went away though, and he walked more than a batter per inning in the minors last year. Still, his velocity from the left side is tantalizing. He averaged over 96 MPH on his heater in limited time with Atlanta last season. He can’t be totally ignored as an option for the Yankees since he is in camp, but it would probably take a ton of injuries or an unlikely resurgence.

Daniel Coulombe

Stylistically, Coulombe is the opposite of Brothers. Instead of a high-octane fastball, Coulombe is a lefty who relies on his slider and curveball two-thirds of the time. He’s been in the majors every year since 2014, split between the Dodgers and A’s, with middling results. It’s hard to see him as much more than emergency depth even though he’s hung around the highest level for a while now. Maybe another team will want to give him a big league chance before the month is over, but if not, he’ll hang around in Scranton most of the year. Maybe he could be plucked for September call-ups if the Yankees want a matchup lefty.

Prospects invited to big league spring training

Trevor Stephan

Even though Stephan has been a starter in the minors, it sounds like 2017’s 3rd-rounder could be best deployed out of the bullpen. He works exclusively out of the stretch, doesn’t really have a third pitch just yet, and has a little bit of an odd delivery. Stephan’s a pretty big guy, standing at six-foot-four, but his fastball extension is even more impressive. He’s got a seven foot reach which certainly makes his fastball tougher to hit. He’ll be in the minors to start the year, but he should be knocking on the door by year end.

Brady Lail

25-year-olds aren’t always prospects, but Lail became mildly interesting after moving to the bullpen last summer. From getting drafted in 2012 through his climb to Triple-A, the righty was a starter. Last year, he became a full-time reliever and started picking up more strikeouts. He wasn’t a one-and-done type of guy though; he pitched multiple innings quite a bit out of the pen. His ERA was too high, sitting over 5, but as a multi-inning option he could become an alternative to someone like Luis Cessa this season. Lail’s already been assigned to minor league camp, but he could be around later this year.

Raynel Espinal and Phillip Diehl

I’m grouping these two together because Domenic called them out as guys who could help the Yankees this year. Espinal, 27, has been in the organization since 2013 and finally made Triple-A last year. He’s yet another hard-thrower with impressive strikeout rates. Diehl, 24, is a lefty without much of a platoon split thus far in his minor league career. He’s had a great spring (6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 10 K) and Aaron Boone has mentioned him by name when asked who’s impressed in camp. Both are probably heading to Scranton to start the year, but either could become part of the shuttle in a few months.

Cale Coshow

At six-foot-five and 270 pounds, Coshow has a presence on the mound. He flip-flopped between starting and relieving from 2013 through 2016 until becoming a reliever full-time in 2017. You’ve heard this story before: he started to miss a lot more bats in the bullpen. He’s likely low on the promotion pecking order, but the fact that he was in big league camp means the Yankees like him to some degree.

Filed Under: Players Tagged With: 2019 Season Preview, Ben Heller, Brady Lail, Cale Coshow, Daniel Coulombe, Danny Farquhar, Joe Harvey, Phillip Diehl, Raynel Espinal, Rex Brothers, Stephen Tarpley, Trevor Stephan

March 6th Spring Training Notes: Severino, Sabathia, Hicks, Ellsbury, King, Roster Cuts

March 6, 2019 by Mike

The Yankees came from ahead to lose to the Cardinals this afternoon. Austin Romine clubbed a three-run home run to lead the way offensively. Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, and Tyler Wade all doubled, plus Brett Gardner and Giancarlo Stanton had singles. Torres had two hits on the day. Clint Frazier and Greg Bird each drew a walk. Seemed like Yankees hitters were in 3-2 counts all afternoon.

Jonathan Loaisiga started and looked very good in his first two innings (four strikeouts) before things unraveled in his third inning (three runs). He is pitching for a rotation spot now. Aroldis Chapman was the only projected big league reliever to pitch today and he allowed a soft single in an otherwise ho hum inning. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

  • Luis Severino (shoulder) is optimistic he won’t miss much time. All his strength tests came back strong. “It’s going to be tough for a little bit, but after that, like I said, it’s better it happened now than in midseason or at the end of the season,” he said. Not surprisingly, Brian Cashman said the Yankees will be cautious with Severino and give him as much time as he needs. [Coley Harvey]
  • CC Sabathia (knee) threw his third bullpen session today as scheduled. Aaron Boone stated the obvious and said Sabathia will likely start the season on the injured list, but said it should be a “short” stay. Boone make it sound like it’ll be the injured list then the five-game suspension, not the other way around. The order does matter a bit because the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster during the suspension. [Meredith Marakovits, Lindsey Adler]
  • Aaron Hicks (back) is expected to resume baseball activities tomorrow, Boone said during an in-game interview with YES this afternoon. Hicks was ready to go today, but the Yankees held him out one more day as a precaution. Resuming baseball activities tomorrow means he is probably a few days from returning to game action.
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (hip) will join the Yankees next weekend so they can evaluate his progress. What happens after that is anyone’s guess. Also, Mike King (elbow) has an MRI coming up soon. Three weeks ago the Yankees shut him down and said he’ll be evaluated again in three weeks, and it’s been three weeks, so there you go. [Brendan Kuty]
  • The Yankees announced their first round of roster cuts this morning. Domingo Acevedo, Brady Lail, and Trevor Stephan were sent to minor league camp. There are still 59 players in big league camp, according to my unofficial count.

If you’re interested, this afternoon’s game will be replayed on YES (after the Nets game) and MLB Network (12am ET). The Yankees will be on the road tomorrow afternoon to take on the Phillies. Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton, Gary Sanchez, Troy Tulowitzki, and Luke Voit are all making the trip, so says Lindsey Adler. Tomorrow’s game will be televised live.

Filed Under: Spring Training Tagged With: Aaron Hicks, Brady Lail, Domingo Acevedo, Jacoby Ellsbury, Luis Severino, Mike King, Trevor Stephan

Minor League Notes: System & Prospect Ranks, Diaz, Stowers

February 18, 2019 by Mike

Abreu. (Jennifer Stewart/Getty)

Major League Spring Training opened last week but minor league camp is still a few weeks away. Minor league camp doesn’t open until early March. A bunch of prospects are already working out at the complex in Tampa though. Anyway, here’s one last link back to my Top 30 Prospect List and here are some minor league notes.

Baseball America, Keith Law release farm system rankings

Both Baseball America (subs. req’d) and Keith Law (subs. req’d) released their annual farm system rankings in recent days, and they both have the Padres and Rays ranked first and second, respectively. Their lists diverge from there. They ranked the Yankees similarly:

  • Baseball America (20th): “After graduating Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar the last two years, the system has dropped without an elite, near-ready prospect, but they are deep in young pitching.”
  • Keith Law (19th): “The Yankees’ top end has thinned out significantly, but from low-A down they at least have a strong collection of guys who show enough to grab your attention — elite speed or power, big velocity, huge spin rates — and create some potential trade value.”

Readers ask me where I think the farm system ranks every week in our chat, and I’ve been saying the 15-20 range since the Justus Sheffield trade. Bottom half of the league but closer to middle of the pack than last. The Yankees are loaded with high-end kids in the low minors, so the potential is there for rapid improvement. That’s also a risky profile. There is lots of boom or bust potential in the system and the rankings reflect that.

Law, FG, BP release top Yankees prospects lists

FanGraphs, Keith Law (subs. req’d), and Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) all released their top Yankees prospects lists recently and they go well beyond the top ten. FanGraphs ranked 38 (!) prospects and their list is free. Go read all the scouting reports. Law ranked 20 players and mentioned ten others. Baseball Prospectus ranked 15 and mentioned another four. Here are the top tens:

FanGraphs
1. OF Estevan Florial
2. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
3. RHP Deivi Garcia
4. OF Antonio Cabello
5. RHP Roansy Contreras
6. RHP Albert Abreu
7. OF Everson Pereira
8. C Anthony Seigler
9. RHP Luis Gil
10. RHP Clarke Schmidt

Keith Law
1. RHP Deivi Garcia
2. OF Everson Pereira
3. OF Estevan Florial
4. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
5. C Anthony Seigler
6. RHP Freicer Perez
7. RHP Clarke Schmidt
8. RHP Albert Abreu
9. OF Anthony Cabello
10. SS Thairo Estrada

Baseball Prospectus
1. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
2. OF Estevan Florial
3. OF Antonio Cabello
4. RHP Deivi Garcia
5. OF Everson Pereira
6. RHP Luis Gil
7. RHP Mike King
8. RHP Roansy Contreras
9. RHP Clarke Schmidt
10. RHP Chance Adams


Law picked Cabello as his sleeper for 2019. “Cabello has so much upside that I even had suggestions to put him in my top 100, although I think that would have been premature. But he could belong in a year,” says the write-up. He also notes the big money 2014-15 international signings (3B Nelson Gomez, OF Juan De Leon, OF Jonathan Amundaray, etc.) have flamed out. “Only (SS Hoy Jun) Park looks like he might ever even see a day in the majors,” he writes. The spending spree was a good idea but wow did it not work out as expected. Lotta money for nothing.

FanGraphs posted their top 132 prospects list last week, which had Blue Jays 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. in the top spot, and included only one Yankee: Florial at No. 106. Why is Loaisiga above Florial in the Yankees top ten but not on the top 132 list? Beats me. In a separate piece FanGraphs looked at players they expect to be a top 100 prospect next year. Cabello, OF Kevin Alcantara, and RHP Trevor Stephan are among them. The Yankees gave Alcantara a $1M bonus last summer and all indications are he is about to become a Very Big Deal.

Yankees connected to another top international free agent

Last week we learned the Yankees are expected to sign Dominican OF Jasson Dominguez when the 2019-20 international signing period opens July 2nd. Dominguez is considered the best available player this summer and he’s expected to receive a massive bonus in the $5M range. Ben Badler (subs. req’d) now connects the Yankees to another top international player, Dominican OF Jhon Diaz. From Badler:

Diaz is smaller than the other top players in the class, but he’s one of the most skilled game players for 2019. He’s a lefty who consistently performs well in games with a quick, simple swing and a knack for barreling the ball against live pitching. He’s a center fielder with good defensive instincts and one of the smartest baseball IQ players in the country.

Diaz looks like he’s about nine years old in the video embedded above. Total opposite of Dominguez, who looks like a grown man (in the very limited video I can find).

Badler says the Red Sox were expected to sign Diaz but “more recently there’s been buzz” about the Yankees signing him. That’s not as firm a connection as Dominguez, but it is a connection nonetheless. The bonus pools will be announced in a few weeks and the Yankees figure to be in the $5M to $5.25M range. They’ll have to trade for additional pool space to sign anyone other than Dominguez. (Teams can trade for an additional 60% of their pool. It used to be 75%. Now it’s 60%.)

Yankees were ready to draft Stowers

In the least surprising news ever, George King (subs. req’d) reports the Yankees were ready to select OF Josh Stowers with their second round pick last summer. The Mariners beat them to the punch and grabbed Stowers with the 54th overall pick. The Yankees held the 61st overall selection and used it on C Josh Breaux. They got their man last month when they acquired Stowers from the Mariners in the Sonny Gray three-team trade.

“We had him rated in the vicinity of 50th (overall), close to the bottom of the second round. He can run and is a basestealer who plays center field and has power. He is a very good athlete. The ceiling on him is he has power and speed,” said scouting director Damon Oppenheimer to King. As soon as the trade went down, I figured Stowers was someone the Yankees had targeted in the draft last year. I assume the LHP Ronald Roman situation is similar. He’s a 17-year-old kid the Diamondbacks signed as an international free agent last summer. The Yankees got Roman, who has yet to play a pro game, in the Tim Locastro trade last month. They probably tried to sign him last summer.

Filed Under: International Free Agents, Minors Tagged With: 2018 Draft, Albert Abreu, Anthony Seigler, Antonio Cabello, Chance Adams, Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia, Estevan Florial, Everson Pereira, Freicer Perez, Jhon Diaz, Jonathan Loaisiga, Josh Stowers, Kevin Alcantara, Luis Gil, Mike King, Prospect Lists, Roansy Contreras, Thairo Estrada, Trevor Stephan

Feb. 13th Spring Training Notes: Sabathia, Ellsbury, Severino, Montgomery, Diehl, Stephan

February 13, 2019 by Mike

It was cloudy and rainy in Florida today but I don’t care. Baseball is back. The Yankees opened Spring Training today and Aaron Boone held his annual start-of-spring press conference (video above). More questions were asked about Manny Machado (two) than Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres combined (zero).

“There’s no question, we’ll embrace (the expectations),” Boone said. “I think everyone that’s been here a while — and certainly the new guys coming in — I think understand what goes along with having the kind of club we potentially have, and being within this organization that the expectations are great. We welcome that.”

Here are some grainy cell phone videos of guys playing catch between rain drops. Hey, it beats not watching grainy Spring Training videos, doesn’t it? Anyway, here are some photos from today and here are the day’s notes:

  • CC Sabathia has a press conference scheduled for Saturday. He’s going to officially announce he’s retiring following the 2019 season, which is no surprise. Sabathia has been saying this will be his final season since last summer. Also, Boone said the Yankees will take it slow with Sabathia this spring following his offseason knee and heart surgeries. No surprise there.
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery) will stay home in Arizona for a few weeks and not report to camp with position players on Monday. His offseason rehab work was slowed by plantar fasciitis. This is kinda weird. Usually teams want rehabbing players in camp so they can, you know, help them rehab. Anyway, Ellsbury won’t be ready for Opening Day. Congrats to the Steinbrenners for getting more of that sweet insurance money.
  • Jordan Montgomery is right on schedule with his Tommy John surgery rehab. He is currently making 50 throws at 90 feet and has been doing that for a few weeks now. Montgomery will start throwing off a mound next month and he is on track to return after the All-Star break. “I have my sights set on that,” he said. [Bryan Hoch, Pete Caldera]
  • Luis Severino admitted he tired down the stretch last year and changed his offseason diet and training program to compensate. He dropped 12-15 pounds and focused more on stamina and cardio than weight training. “It’s not easy. I really hate eating vegetables,” he joked. Severino came to camp noticeably bulkier the last two years, but there is such a thing as too much muscle. [Coley Harvey, James Wagner, Meredith Marakovits]
  • This year’s guest instructors: Carlos Beltran, Ron Guidry, Reggie Jackson, Hideki Matsui, Tino Martinez, Lee Mazzilli, Stump Merrill, Andy Pettitte, Willie Randolph, Mariano Rivera, Alfonso Soriano, Nick Swisher, and Bernie Williams. The Yankees hired Beltran as a special assistant over the winter and Rivera recently said he’ll start working with the team’s young pitchers. I’d bet on Alex Rodriguez showing up to camp at some point as well. Jorge Posada recently joined Derek Jeter and the Marlins as a special advisor, so don’t expect to see him in camp. [Coley Harvey]
  • The Yankees have invited lefty Phil Diehl and righty Trevor Stephan to Spring Training, the team announced. Stephan gets an invite after all. The Yankees now have 23 non-roster invitees and 63 total players in big league camp. Here’s some video of Diehl and Stephan.
  • Some new uniform numbers: Adam Ottavino (No. 0), Troy Tulowitzki (No. 12), Tyler Wade (No. 14, had been No. 12), DJ LeMahieu (No. 26), and James Paxton (No. 65). J.A. Happ and Zack Britton are keeping No. 34 and No. 53, respectively. No. 13 and No. 21 were not issued (again).
  • In case you missed it earlier, Mike King has been shut down three weeks with a stress reaction in his elbow. Baseball is always quick to smack away that first day of Spring Training excitement.

Pitchers and catchers have their first official workout tomorrow. Position players will report Monday and the Yankees will play their first Grapefruit League game one week from Saturday. We have to wait just a little longer until real live baseball returns.

Filed Under: Spring Training Tagged With: CC Sabathia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jordan Montgomery, Phil Diehl, Trevor Stephan

Two surprise Spring Training non-roster invitees and three notable omissions

February 5, 2019 by Mike

Ford. (John Raoux/AP)

In eight days pitchers and catchers will report to Spring Training and begin the long journey that is the 2019 season. Position players will follow five days later, then, five days after that, the Yankees will play their first Grapefruit League game. We’re closing in on real live baseball. Thank goodness for that.

With Spring Training coming up, the Yankees announced their non-roster invitees late last week, and by and large the 21 names were as expected. There are veteran journeymen on minor league contracts, notable prospects like Estevan Florial and Mike King, and mid-range prospects like Kyle Holder. Same thing year after year after year.

There are, inevitably, a few surprise non-roster invitees each spring. Surprise invitees and surprise omissions. Some guys you don’t expect get invited to camp and some guys you expect don’t get invited to camp. Here are two surprise non-roster invitees and three notable omissions from big league camp.

Surprise Non-Roster Invitees

RHP Cale Coshow
The Yankees brought Coshow, now 26, to Spring Training as a non-roster player last year, so I suppose it is not that surprising he was invited again this year. Coshow struggled with Triple-A Scranton last year, however, throwing 56.1 innings with a 4.95 ERA (4.61 FIP) and a good strikeout rate (26.3%), but too many walks (11.2%) and too many homers (1.44 HR/9). Here is a snippet of 2080 Baseball’s most recent scouting report:

His plus to double-plus fastball was sitting comfortably at 93-to-96 mph (T97) and it’s a real weapon that he uses aggressively, but his command of the offering is below average … His slider is average, but inconsistent … It’s hard to see the stuff playing at the major league level if the fastball command and control profile don’t improve, and the best outcome is that of high-risk Role 30, AAAA emergency arm used in sixth-or-seventh innings, as there’s too much risk deploying him in the high-leverage, late-inning situations that the Yankees might have envisioned his raw stuff being suited for.

Hey, there’s value in being an up-and-down depth arm. It’s not glamorous but it gets you a big league paycheck every once in a while. If the Yankees believe Coshow can be a shuttle reliever — inviting him to camp suggests the team believes he can have some sort of MLB role — then it’s worth bringing him to Spring Training for a look. See what the big league coaching staff thinks and make an evaluation.

There are a few reasons I thought Coshow would not get an invite to camp. One, he had a tough year in Triple-A last season. Two, he looks to be no higher than 12th on the bullpen depth chart. And three, he’s now been passed over in the Rule 5 Draft three times, which is a pretty good indication the rest of the league doesn’t see much MLB value. Instead, Coshow will be back in big league camp this spring, and that means he’ll have a chance to show teams they were wrong to overlook him.

1B Mike Ford
This will be Ford’s first big league camp with the Yankees. He was in camp with the Mariners as a Rule 5 Draft last spring, did not make the team, then was returned to the Yankees before Opening Day. In his first full Triple-A season the 26-year-old put up a decidedly meh .253/.327/.433 (114 wRC+) batting line with 15 homers and the lowest walk rate (9.0%) of his career in 410 plate appearances. For a bat-only first baseman, that’s not good.

Luke Voit and Greg Bird are set to compete for the big league first base job in Spring Training — Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone have indicated it is Voit’s job to lose — plus DJ LeMahieu figures to see time at the position as well. The Yankees are planning to use LeMahieu as something of a super utility guy and getting familiar with first base will be a necessity. Other non-roster guys like Ryan Lavarnway and Francisco Diaz have first base experience as well.

To me, Ford is at best fourth on the first base depth chart behind Voit, Bird, and LeMahieu, and my hunch is if Voit and Bird don’t work out, the Yankees would look outside the organization for help rather than play LeMahieu and his non-first base caliber bat at first base full-time. Ford figures to play in the late innings of Grapefruit League games, against minor leaguers, and I’m not sure there’s anything he can do in those spots to show the Yankees he’s a viable first base depth option. There’s no harm in bringing him to camp, of course. I just didn’t expect it to happen.

Notable Non-Roster Omissions

RHP J.P. Feyereisen
Feyereisen, like Coshow, is a hard-throwing righty with bad command who’s been passed over in numerous Rule 5 Drafts. The 26-year-old who had a 4.95 ERA (4.61 FIP) in Triple-A last year was invited to big league camp. The 25-year-old with a 3.45 ERA (3.75 FIP) in Triple-A last year was not invited to big league camp. There is of course much more to life than Triple-A ERA and FIP. A quick glance at the surface stats is enough to make you go “huh” though.

This will be Coshow’s second big league camp and it would’ve been Feyereisen’s third. Maybe the Yankees give these fringy bad command relievers two camps to strut their stuff and that’s it? The simplest possible explanation is the most likely explanation: The Yankees like Coshow better than Feyereisen. Feyereisen, the fourth piece in the Andrew Miller trade, may’ve had the better Triple-A numbers last year, but the analytics may like Coshow more. I expected Feyereisen to get a non-roster invitee before Coshow. Shows what I know.

RHP Nick Nelson
The Yankees have several interesting power arms slated to begin the 2019 season with Double-A Trenton and Nelson is chief among them. The 23-year-old had 3.55 ERA (3.12 FIP) with 27.5% strikeouts and a few too many walks (12.1%) in 121.1 innings at three levels last year, including Double-A. Here’s a piece of 2080 Baseball’s latest scouting report:

(He) generates plus velocity (touching 98 mph at best, sitting 94-to-96 mph) from core muscles and efficient mechanics. A high-70s curveball shows sharp bite and tight two-plane depth at best, though he struggles to keep the pitch for strikes right now. His 86-to-89 mph changeup is thrown too hard but shows promising armside dive at best … his three-pitch mix gives the best-case ceiling of a power back-rotation type. It’s easy to see Nelson in a bullpen role if he needs a long-term fallback.

Nelson was a two-way player in college who has been pitching full-time for only two and a half seasons, so while he reached Double-A last year, he’s not the experienced pitching prospect. He will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season though, and I thought the Yankees would want to get him in front of the big league coaching staff at least once before the 40-man roster decision. I guess not.

Even with limited full-time pitching experience and some control issues, the 23-year-old Nelson topped 100 innings each of the last two seasons, and his stuff is plenty good enough to face rusty big leaguers in exhibition games. Bringing Nelson to camp this year would’ve been akin to bringing Dillon Tate to camp last year. That big-armed righty coming up on Rule 5 Draft eligibility who, if you squint your eyes, you could see helping the Yankees in a relief role in the coming season.

RHP Trevor Stephan
Stephan is another one of those interesting arms slated to begin the season in Double-A. He spent way more time at Double-A last year than Nelson (83.1 innings to 8.2 innings), and his overall performance was very good. Stephen tossed 124.1 total innings with a 3.69 ERA (3.60 FIP) and strong strikeout (26.8 K%) and walk (7.3 BB%) rates. He’s a fastball/slider guy with a funky delivery who is hell on righties.

The Yankees selected Stephan with their third round pick in the 2017 draft, so he only has one full pro season under his belt, but that lack of experience hasn’t stopped them from bringing pitchers to big league camp before. Taylor Widener was a non-roster invitee with one pro season last year. Same with James Kaprielian and Chance Adams the year before. Lack of pro experience isn’t a dealbreaker.

Stephen not being invited to big league camp surprises me more than any other non-roster non-invite this year. He’s a quality prospect with bat-missing stuff and Double-A experience, and once you’re in Double-A, you’re an MLB option. Ask Jonathan Loaisiga. He jumped from Double-A to MLB last season. Skipped right over Triple-A. Stephan throws enough strikes that debuting in a bullpen role this year is not impossible. Likely? No. But I thought the Yankees would want to get a look at him in big league camp given his proximity to the show. Guess not.

* * *

Receiving a non-roster invite does not mean the player is destined for a big league role. Coshow could just be an inventory arm to pitch those late innings in the first few Grapefruit League games. Also, not receiving an invitation to big league camp is not the end of the world either. Stephen Tarpley did not get a non-roster invite last year and he wound up on the ALDS roster. Force the issue and the Yankees will give you a chance.

Given the first base depth chart, I was surprised to see Ford get a non-roster invite — how much has to go wrong for him to start at first base in the Bronx at some point this year? — and I definitely thought one of those Double-A arms like Nelson or Stephan would get a look in camp. The Yankees have a lot of pitching prospects at the moment. An awful lot. Other than King, none of them will be in camp. From a selfish “I want to see prospects in Spring Training!” perspective, it’s a bummer.

Filed Under: Spring Training Tagged With: Cale Coshow, J.P. Feyereisen, Mike Ford, Nick Nelson, Trevor Stephan

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