Mailbag: Frazier, Harper, Stanton, Strickland, Encarnacion
There are a dozen questions in this week’s mailbag. Only four more mailbags after this one until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. Anyway, RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com is the mailbag email address. Send all your questions there.
Steve asks: How about Frazier learning 1B in Spring Training? My guess is that his power would translate, he’d be significantly less likely to repeat concussions and the position is open.
It’s possible. Two things about this though. One, I think the priority in Spring Training will be making sure Clint Frazier is healthy and on the path back to being a productive player following last year’s concussion issues. He missed a lot of time last season and has not yet been cleared to work out on a field. (That should happen soon.) He’s hitting in the cage and playing catch. That’s about it. Asking him to learn a new position while coming back from such a long layoff might not be the best idea.
And two, there is an opening in the outfield for Frazier. I don’t think the Yankees will let Brett Gardner stand in the way should Frazier show he’s a better option. The Yankees reduced Gardner’s role down the stretch last year once Andrew McCutchen arrived. I think they’d do it again if Frazier comes back well and show he’s ready to help. My hunch is the Yankees hope Frazier is at least platooning with Gardner at midseason and ready to take over left field full-time in 2020. Learning first base is possible, sure. I see reasons why the Yankees might not do it though.
Kara asks: Are teams allowed to add non-salary incentives to free agent contracts (say: housing or transportation perks) or is that against the CBA rules? I wonder because it seems that such extra-salary benefits might have a particular allure in a city like New York where a there’s so much exceptional real-estate that a really beautiful/desirable apartment or house might be a true lure.
Yep. Teams do it all the time. Well, not all the time, but often enough. Masahiro Tanaka’s contract includes allowances for housing ($100,000 per year) and a full-time interpreter ($85,000 per year). He also received a moving allowance ($35,000) and four first class round trip tickets between Japan and New York. A.J. Burnett’s contract with the Blue Jays included eight round trip limo rides from his home in Maryland to Toronto (because his wife hates flying). Carlos Beltran’s contract with the Mets included a high-tech tennis ball launcher. Alex Rodriguez’s contract with the Rangers included a $150,000 bonus for being named ALDS MVP, which doesn’t exist. There are a lot of weird contact perks out there. Remember though, teams are cheap as hell, and they don’t like giving these perks out.
Alberto asks: Between Bryce Harper & Giancarlo Stanton who had the better 2018 season? We know Stanton had 38 HR to Harper’s 34 & both had 100 RBI, but beside that who had it better?
Both Harper and Stanton had very good 2018 seasons that qualified as down seasons relative to their career averages. Harper was a much better on-base player who, according to the defensive numbers, gave back a lot of value in the field. The quick head-to-head comparison:
PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | wRC+ | HR | BB% | K% | fWAR | bWAR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper | 695 | .249/.393/.496 | 135 | 34 | 18.7% | 24.3% | +3.5 | +1.3 |
Stanton | 705 | .266/.343/.509 | 127 | 38 | 9.9% | 29.9% | +4.2 | +4.0 |
Ben Lindbergh and Mike Petriello examined Harper’s defense and found there were times Harper appeared to employ some self-preservation. He didn’t dive and he didn’t run into walls, resulting in more balls falling in for hits. Given his injury history and impending free agent payday, I can’t blame him. Don’t be surprised if Harper’s defensive numbers bounce back this season.
In a vacuum, I’d take Harper’s next ten years over Stanton’s next ten years. Pretty easily too. The luxury tax is a thing now though, and Stanton carries a $22M luxury tax hit that is a relative bargain. Harper could end up with a $35M luxury tax hit. If money didn’t matter, give me Harper. Money does matter though, and while I think Harper will be the better player, Stanton at something like 65% of the luxury tax hit will be the better value. (The Yankees should sign Harper and keep Giancarlo. Give me both.)
Matt asks: Stupid question(s): why does the ~$15M for benefits count towards the Luxury Tax? Other than because it hasn’t been collectively bargained, why can’t they still make that a mandatory payment but not count towards the tax?
Because it’s another way for owners to limit player spending. That’s all. Last year each team paid $14,044,600 toward benefits and it counts against the luxury tax payroll. That $197M luxury tax threshold last season was actually a $182,955,400 luxury tax threshold for player contracts. We don’t know the 2019 benefits figure yet (probably around $15M), but yeah, the $206M luxury tax threshold will actually be something like a $191M threshold for player contracts. This is one of those things the MLBPA should push to get changed in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement. Each team pays an equal amount into benefits and it is mandatory. Get that out of the luxury tax payroll calculation.
Eric asks: Is signing Hunter Strickland a possibility for the Yankees? The Yankees need another reliever and he seems like a bounce-back candidate.
Could be, sure. Strickland is kind of a hothead — he broke his pitching hand punching a wall last season and missed two months, plus there’s the absurd two-year grudge against Bryce Harper — and I don’t know if the Yankees will go for that, but yeah, he could be a lower cost bullpen target. Last season he had a 3.97 ERA (4.42 FIP) with 18.4% strikeouts and 10.5% walks in 45.1 innings around the hand injury. It was easily his worst season as a big leaguer. Strickland turned 30 in September and he has a career 2.91 ERA (3.40 FIP) with 22.6% strikeouts and 8.5% walks. His fastball velocity (95.0 mph) and spin rate (2,392 rpm) were quite good last year and you know the Yankees will love that. The Yankees are big on makeup and accountability. A dude who missed two months because he punched a wall might not be their cup of tea.
Julian asks: With the first base situation still a question mark, should the Yankees consider trading for Encarnacion?
I’m inclined to say no. For starters, Edwin Encarnacion is more of a DH than a first baseman. He’s started only 55 games at first base the last two years. Secondly, he is starting to show signs of decline at age 36. Encarnacion hit .246/.336/.474 (115 wRC+) with 32 home runs last year, which is obviously very good, but is a far cry from his heyday with the Blue Jays. He posted his worst strikeout (22.8%), walk (10.9%), ISO (.228), and wRC+ (115) marks in eight years last season. Chances are he’s only going to perform worse from here on out, especially if you’re asking him to play the field on an everyday basis. And third, Encarnacion has $25M coming to him next season and his contract comes with a $20M luxury tax hit. Even if the Mariners eat some money, which I assume they’re willing to do, that’s a lot of scratch. Trading for old and declining Encarnacion is an old Yankees move.
Keane asks: Johnny Damon was 231 hits away from 3000, which is about a season and half for him. He fell off the ballot in the first year, do you think the BBWAA underrated him?
I don’t think so. Damon was obviously a great player but he is a clear cut Hall of Very Good player to me. Career .284/.352/.433 (105 wRC+) hitter with good counting stats (2,769 hits, 235 homers, 408 steals) and +44.2 WAR. That’s really good but it’s not Hall of Fame good. Only two All-Star Game selections (for real) and never finished higher than 13th in the MVP voting. Was Damon ever even the best player on his own team? I don’t think so. As good as he was, Damon never struck me as a Hall of Famer or even as one of the very best players in the league, which is kind of a prerequisite for Cooperstown. There’s nothing wrong with being a compiler. Damon had a great career, won a couple World Series titles, made a ton of money. Not a bad career at all.
Ray asks: Ray asks: While the Yanks should sign Harper and Machado I don’t expect they will. But given Dombrowski’s comments about Kimbrel, what are the chances his price drops to the point the Yankees pounce? 4 years/$68M with opt outs? That would be some relief corp.
Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski recently told Bob Nightengale he doesn’t expect to spend much on a closer. “Craig did a great job for us, he’s a Hall of Fame reliever, but we have not anticipated having a large expenditure for a closer,” he said. Cot’s has the Red Sox with a $240M payroll for luxury tax purposes, so they’re $6M under the $246M third luxury tax tier that triggers the harshest penalties. They have some big contract decisions coming soon. Chris Sale, Xander Bogaerts, and J.D. Martinez (opt-out) will be free agents next winter, then Mookie Betts a year later. We’ll see what happens.
I’m not sure Kimbrel will get $17M a year like Aroldis Chapman, Wade Davis, and Kenley Jansen. That’s what he would’ve received in the old wild west days of two winters ago. Now? I’m not sure he gets more than $15M annually. I think his asking price would have to drop into Zach Britton territory for the Yankees to consider signing him. Something like three years and $13M to per season. I can’t see them carrying two relievers at $15M+ per season and even three at $10M+ per season seems unrealistic. I think the Yankees would sooner sign Adam Ottavino for two years and $22M or so than Kimbrel at his price, even if it drops. Hard for me to see a scenario in which the club spends for Kimbrel.
Brent asks: I know that Sonny Gray is probably the best sixth starter in baseball and there’s a case to be made for keeping him but if the Yankees will still move him and SDP are interested they should go for it. I know mtps but Gray for Josh Naylor just seems pretty great. Naylor should go to AAA and possibly help this year at 1b if not next. He’s a lefty and his swing reminds me of Papi a bit. Do you think gray would be enough to get him? Not sure he could cut it in the of and is kind of blocked by hosmer, no dh. What do you think?
Naylor can hit. He put up a .297/.383/.447 (128 wRC+) batting line with 17 homers and nearly as may walks (11.1%) as strikeouts (12.0%) in 128 Double-A games last year, and he spent half the season as a 20-year-old. Naylor is a terrible defender and he’s slow as hell — dude’s listed at 5-foot-11 and 250 lbs. — but he can hit. I see him as a better version of Dan Vogelbach, another big lefty DH prospect, and those dudes seem to get overrated quick. I’d like the Yankees to exhaust all other trade opportunities with Sonny Gray before settling for someone like Naylor. There’s nothing here besides the bat, so if he doesn’t hit, he’s worthless. Try for a more well-rounded prospect or some arms. If Naylor is the best the Yankees can do, take it. I’d like to think there’s something better out there.
Chris asks (short version): After reading the Domingo German fourth option post, could Gray have been sent down to Scranton? And would that have been a better solution than having him rot in the pen, or would that have diminished his value even more than sending him to the pen and saying we needed to trade him has degraded his value? Finally are you saying that Paxton still has an option?
Yes, the Yankees could’ve sent Sonny Gray to Triple-A last season. Remember though, they were short on starters until the trade deadline, and sending him down was never all that realistic. German was already in the rotation and Luis Cessa was making regular spot starts to give everyone extra rest. By time the trade deadline rolled around and the Yankees imported Lance Lynn and J.A. Happ, Gray reached five full years of service time and could’ve refused a demotion to Triple-A, which he would’ve done because everyone in his situation would do that. Sonny’s first relief appearance came on August 7th. It was too late to send him down by then. As for James Paxton, yes, he has an option. Two, in fact, and he doesn’t have five full years of service time, so the Yankees can send him down this season. They don’t want to do that though. It means something terrible will have happened.
Chris asks: Hey, so I saw your thoughts on a deadline to free agency, and agree 100%. What do you think of reducing the number of years of team control to try and encourage more signings of free agents to replace them? Failing that, do you have any thoughts on potential solutions?
Letting players qualify for free agency after four or five years rather than six could work. I keep coming back to this though: Manny Machado and Bryce Harper are two 26-year-old superstars and they’re having trouble finding work. How much will reducing the number of years of team control really help? Teams will just continue to look for younger and cheaper players, and they’ll just have to do so more aggressively. The single best thing the MLBPA could do going forward is increase salaries for players with 0-3 years of service time. Raise the league minimum to $1M, lower the service time requirement for arbitration, whatever. Baseball’s economics are completely backwards. Players are most productive early in their careers and that’s when they’re paid the least.
Keith asks: What’s the plan if Tulo gets hurt or just can’t cut it in Spring Training or April?
Beats me. If Troy Tulowitzki simply has a bad Spring Training, I don’t think it’ll matter much. The Yankees will stick with him at shortstop going into the regular season. Remember Raul Ibanez? He was awful in Spring Training and everyone was wondering what the Yankees would do with him. They stuck with him and were rewarded. I imagine they’ll do the same with Tulowitzki. He’s had a long layoff and I imagine it’ll take him some time in Spring Training to get back up to speed. It’s only fair to give him a couple dozen at-bats before seriously evaluating him.
Now, if Tulowitzki gets hurt in camp, then the Yankees could be in trouble. Tyler Wade and Hanser Alberto will be around as replacements, and I have to think there will still be some free agents sitting on the open market. And there is always a rush of minor trades at the end of March as teams finalize their rosters and figure out what to do with their out-of-options players. None of those are good options, mind you, but those are the options. Either go with Wade or Alberto, or scour the scrap heap.
The Troy Tulowitzki signing gives the Yankees some clarity regarding their bench construction
It’s someone I don’t think any of us expected, but the Yankees have their Didi Gregorius replacement in Troy Tulowitzki. The Blue Jays released Tulowitzki last month, the Yankees scooped him up at the league minimum, and Brian Cashman made it pretty clear Tulowitzki is expected to be the starting shortstop while Didi Gregorius is sidelined.
“I can’t say what it would take us out of, but we’re going into this with a commitment level to try Troy Tulowitzki at shortstop,” said Cashman to Kevin Kernan and Bryan Hoch last week. “… We are obviously looking at this as a risk because he hasn’t played for a year and a half, but I think there’s a lot of upside here in terms of what we were able to evaluate.”
Obviously a Manny Machado signing would change everything. He’s a special case. Otherwise, it sure sounds like the Yankees are done with their infield shopping. They’ve been connected to Josh Harrison, one of the lower end free agent infielders, but not Jed Lowrie or DJ LeMahieu. Signing someone like that would come out of nowhere. There’s been no chatter at all.
In addition to addressing the need at shortstop — potentially addressing the need at shortstop, I should say, because Tulowitzki is no lock to stay healthy — the Tulowitzki signing also clarifies the bench situation. The Yankees are a three-man bench/eight-man bullpen team. Here’s what we know about the bench right now:
- One of those three spots goes to a backup catcher (Austin Romine).
- The Yankees don’t need a shortstop on the bench because Gleyber Torres can play the position.
- The Yankees need a backup first baseman, unless they’ll let Romine do it (no thanks).
Had the Yankees replaced Gregorius with, say, Lowrie or LeMahieu, they would’ve had to carry a shortstop capable infielder on the bench. That would’ve been great news for Tyler Wade and Hanser Alberto with regards to their chances of making the team. That is no longer the case though. Torres can back up shortstop and that gives the Yankees a little more wiggle room when building their bench. A backup shortstop is not absolutely necessary.
With Gleyber backing up shortstop, the Yankees will need to use those final two bench spots on players who can provide coverage at first base, second base, third base, and preferably the outfield as well. The Yankees do have four outfielders (Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton) but all four figure to be in the lineup most days. Removing one (injury, pinch-run, etc.) means losing the DH the rest of the game. Maybe the Yankees are okay with that. I’d rather not.
The in-house bench options include Wade (second, short, third, some outfield), Alberto (second, short, third), Thairo Estrada (second, short, third), Tim Locastro (first, second, short, outfield), and Greg Bird (first base). Clint Frazier is returning from his post-concussion migraines and is probably not a bench option until he shows he’s fully healthy, and has enough Triple-A plate appearances to get back up to speed at the plate. Jacoby Ellsbury is a non-factor until he’s healthy and maybe even after that too.
Assuming Luke Voit is the starter at first base — “(Voit is the starter) unless Bird beats him out,” Cashman said to Jack Curry last week — I don’t love the idea of carrying Bird on the bench. That is two roster spots dedicated to first base only players with a three-man bench. The Yankees have done it before (Bird and Chris Carter in 2017) and they could do it again. Seems to me a backup first baseman who can also play other positions is the way to go though. That would give the Yankees their most functional roster.
The other option is having Stanton or Miguel Andujar (or Tulowitzki) play some first base, which solves the backup first baseman problem. A good idea, in theory. There are no indications either player is working to learn first base though, so at best we’re talking about a Spring Training crash course, which doesn’t seem fair to the player or smart for the Yankees. Not when you have five weeks to find a viable backup first baseman before pitchers and catchers report.
The Yankees could cobble together a bench from their in-house options. Locastro and Alberto gives you coverage everywhere. Wade and Bird gives you coverage everywhere as well. Clearly though, there’s room for the Yankees to go outside the organization for a bench guy. The versatile Derek Dietrich (first, second, third, outfield) is sitting in free agency. So are Harrison (second, third, short, outfield) and Wilmer Flores (first, second, third, short), just to throw two other names out there.
What about a reunion with Neil Walker? Walker can play the three non-shortstop infield positions and also fake the outfield, if necessary. He struggled with the transition into part-time duty last year — Walker had some very good runs when an injury pushed him into the lineup everyday — but perhaps year two will go better. Given his injury history, Tulowitzki might only play four or five times a week. Walker would help fill in the gaps.
This to me is where the “the Yankees are set up to get a bargain late in the offseason” thing comes into play. Similar to Walker last year, the Yankees can see which players are still looking for work come mid-to-late February, then pick a bench guy. Maybe it’ll be Walker again, or Harrison or Dietrich or someone else entirely. Let the market bring the discounted talented to you, then make a pick. That’s what every team is doing now.
The bench has long been the last thing teams address each offseason. That was true long before teams stop paying free agents too. They’d address their starting lineup, the starting rotation, and the bullpen, then figure out the rest of the roster. Rarely do you see a team sign or make a trade in November for a clear cut bench player. Maybe a waiver claim, which is time sensitive, but that’s really it. The bench always gets pushed aside until everything else is finalized.
We’re probably still a few weeks away from clubs beginning to attack their bench. The Tulowitzki signing gives the Yankees some clarity because now they know they don’t need a backup shortstop on the bench, and that’s kinda huge. It makes non-shortstop capable players like Walker and Dietrich more realistic options. If necessary, the Yankees could put together a viable bench internally. That said, they have an opportunity to go outside the organization for a nice little depth pickup or two in the coming weeks.
Guest Post: With the window of contention wide open, there’s no better time for the Yankees to spend big
The following is a guest post from Zachary Abate, a journalist in the DC area and lifelong Yankees fan. He wrote about the Yankees’ financial situation and their offseason spending.
Hal Steinbrenner and the Yankees ownership team have talked about getting under the luxury tax threshold for years. In a March 2015 interview with Bill Madden of the New York Daily News, Steinbrenner responded to claims of being cheap after the team passed on free agents Max Scherzer and James Shields and were outbid by the rival Red Sox for Cuban top prospect Yoan Moncada, specifically by citing the tax threshold.
“I’m not saying we’ll never give another seven-year contract, but going in you know you’re probably only going to get three-four good years out of it. It remains my goal to get under that $189 million (luxury-tax threshold), but it’s not going to happen for at least two more years when these big contracts we have expire. But I’ve continued to say you shouldn’t need $200 million to win a championship.”
The Yankees finally reached Steinbrenner’s goal in 2018, finishing the season with a $193 million payroll — approximately $4 million below the $197 million luxury tax threshold for the season. Mission accomplished.
Now what?
During the same stretch of years in which Steinbrenner and company banged the luxury tax drum, Yankee fans debated where the financial future of the team lied. The most optimistic among the crowd pointed to the 2018-2019 offseason when Bryce Harper (26), Manny Machado (26), Clayton Kershaw (31), Josh Donaldson (33), Charlie Blackmon (32), and others were scheduled to hit the free-agent market. If the Yankees could sneak under the luxury tax threshold in 2017 or 2018, they could hit the reset button, freeing themselves of any multiplier penalties, and splurge on this premier crop of players in a spending spree reminiscent of the 2008-2009 offseason. Surely this was the plan.
Other fans were quick to point out that the Yankees ownership never said they would resume their big spending habits once the team was under the luxury tax threshold. And if Brian Cashman could find a way to build a competitive roster for around $200 million, the temptation to remain near or under the threshold would be great for Hal Steinbrenner.
The Declining Spending Habits of the New York Yankees
As the early 2000s teams fade a bit in our memories, it’s worth revisiting just how much financial might the Yankees used to exercise. The following revenue figures are courtesy Forbes, while the player payroll figures are from Cot’s Contracts.
Going back to 2003, the first year of the collective bargaining agreement instituting a luxury tax, the Yankees raked in approximately $238 million in revenue and spent more than 75% of that revenue on player payroll, just around $180 million. The Yankees didn’t simply carry the league’s highest payroll; they crushed the competition. While the Yankees were knocking on the door of $200 million, only two other American League teams, the Rangers and Red Sox, crossed the $100 million plateau — and just barely. The next closest MLB team in spending, the Mets, carried a $116 million payroll. Adjusted for inflation, the dollar gap between the Yankees (no. 1) and Mets (no. 2) spending in 2003 was the same as the gap between the Red Sox (no. 1) and Indians (no. 16) spending in 2018.
In the years that followed, the Yankees annual revenue soared, passing $300 million in 2006, $400 million in 2009, $500 million in 2014, and $600 million in 2017. TV deals, casino partnerships, and corporate sponsors pumped cash into the league, and no team saw revenues rise as swiftly as the Yankees.
And yet, spending on player payroll did not hold steady. Instead, over the 15 years since the 2003 CBA, the percent of Yankees revenue going to team payroll dropped sharply: from approximately 75 percent in 2003 to 60 percent in 2008 to 50 percent in 2010 to less than 40 percent in 2017.
Looking at the data, it seems apparent that the luxury tax threshold has worked as a cap to curb Yankees spending habits, even far before Hal Steinbrenner’s publicly-announced austerity plan. While Yankees payroll grew by $65 million between 2001 to 2003, it’s been mired in the $185 million to $245 million range in the 15 years since. Indeed, even despite the flatlined payroll, the Yankees have paid $341 million in luxury taxes since 2003 (on average $21.3 million per year).
It’s hard not to compare the Yankees payroll growth with that of the Red Sox. At their post-2003 spending peak (2016), the Yankees had a $244 million payroll, an increase of 36 percent from 2003 not counting inflation. At their post-2003 spending peak (2018), the Red Sox had a $239 million payroll, an increase of 128 percent from 2003 not counting inflation. That despite New York enjoying hundreds of millions more in revenue than Boston over this period.
If the Yankees simply maintained the same level of spending as they did in 2003, ignoring revenue gains but adjusting for inflation, they would’ve spent $247 million in 2018. If the Yankees preserved the same distance between themselves and the next highest spender as they did in 2003, they would have spent $370 million in 2018. If the Yankees spent the same percent of revenue on payroll as they did in 2003, the team would’ve spent $468 million in 2018, using 2017 revenue numbers.
Now don’t take the previous paragraph as an advocation for dropping a payroll north of $450 million in 2019. Those numbers simply show us the massive financial might the Yankees levied in the early 2000s, and the advantage they have let slip away.
Where’s the Revenue Going?
The knee-jerk reaction to the above question is simply, “Ownership is pocketing it.” And while ownership is most certainly pocketing some of the money, there are other factors at play.
Revenue tells us the income being earned by an organization, but that is not the same as profits, which tells us the difference between income earned and expenditures. While exact data on Yankee profits is not publicly available, we do know that Yankee expenses are massive.
Expenses for the franchise include annual debt payments for Yankee Stadium construction, which reached $76 million in 2018. Additionally, the Yankees have recently sunk millions into renovating Steinbrenner Field and Yankee Stadium, upgrading minor-league facilities, and amassing possibly the largest analytical department in the major leagues.
Other expenses include stadium upkeep, inventories, non-player salaries, legal fees, travel expenses, recruiting and scouting costs, player development costs, marketing, taxes, and revenue sharing. Unfortunately, the total sum of these expenses is not disclosed by the team, though there are reports that Yankee profits may be lower than the public realizes.
Forbes calculated the Yankees operating income, which they define as “earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization,” as only $14 million in 2017, which would put them in the bottom third in the league. Note that this total does not include any operating income from other businesses owned or partially owned by Yankee Global Enterprises LLC, such as Legends Hospitality Management, the YES Network, and the New York City FC soccer team.
It’s impossible to dig further into the numbers here unless more data is made available. While the Yankees are investing a smaller and smaller percentage of revenue into player payroll, they are at least investing money in analytics and player development. But are non-payroll expenses truly eating up over 60 percent of revenue? Or is this fancy accounting? Mets-like financial incompetence? Or just rising costs in an expensive industry?
The number crunching is murky.
Spending on Payroll Seems to Be a League-Wide Issue
While league-wide revenue rose for the 16th consecutive year in 2018, reaching a record of $10.3 billion, the total amount spent on team payrolls dropped and the average MLB salary dropped. The table below shows league revenue according to Forbes estimates and total team payrolls according to the Commissioner’s Office.
The decline in revenue spent on player payroll was less steep league-wide than it was for the Yankees, but the decline was there nonetheless. While FanGraphs and other outlets were ringing warning bells earlier, it wasn’t until the sluggish 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 offseasons that the issue of declining team spending really came into the spotlight. And whether lethargic free-agent spending is a result of collusion (unlikely), the luxury tax working exactly as intended by owners (likely), or simply the result of teams abandoning players over 30 for younger, cheaper talent, player salaries will be a hot topic in negotiations between MLB and the MLBPA when the current CBA expires in 2021.
But it’s not all bad news on this front. Ben Lindbergh of The Ringer argued in February 2018 that the change in percent of revenue going to players may not be as dire as previously reported, when adding player benefits to the payroll figures and using MLB’s much lower league revenue estimates.
What Does the Future Hold for the Yankees?
The word “cheap,” when used as a descriptor for an individual, means stingy or penny-pinching. Therefore, it’s not a good descriptor for Hal Steinbrenner, who has OKed team payrolls north of $200 million for most of the past decade, paid tens of millions in luxury taxes and revenue sharing, and allowed significant investment in the team’s analytical department and player development areas. And the Yankees certainly haven’t been cheap by the strict definition of the word this offseason, spending approximately $89 million in guaranteed dollars to sign Zach Britton, Brett Gardner, J.A. Happ, CC Sabathia, and Troy Tulowtizki.
But it seems that the Yankees have undergone an intentional shift in strategy and surrendered their single greatest advantage — the willingness to financially bully their rivals.
In 2018, a year in which the team had clear World Series aspirations, the Yankees carried a player payroll smaller than their payroll from 13 years prior, and that’s without adjusting for inflation.
The Yankees spent a smaller percent of 2017 revenue on 2018 Opening Day payroll than 28 other teams — the tanking White Sox were the only team behind them. Yes, even the Rays, Athletics, and Marlins invested a larger percent of revenue into their Opening Day payroll than the Yankees.
Even prior to 2018, the effects of lowering payroll were felt in the Yankees pursuit of a championship. In August 2017, the Yankees passed on claiming Justin Verlander, who had finished second in the Cy Young race in 2016, because of his salary. A claim would have either given the Yankees Verlander for just the price of his contract, opened trade negotiations between the Yankees and Tigers, or forced the Tigers to pull Verlander off waivers. Instead, the Yankees did nothing, for fear of being stuck with Verlander’s salary, and the rival Astros made their move. Verlander was instrumental in defeating the Yankees in the playoffs and leading the Astros to a championship.
The 2018-2019 offseason is a test of the Yankees willingness to display their financial might. Two 26-year-old premier free agents, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, are available and only a handful of teams are competing for their services. The Yankees could use either one — Harper would help balance an extremely right-handed lineup, while pushing Gardner into a fourth outfielder role, and Machado would give the Yankees much-needed stability at a premium infield position.
Signing a fourth outfielder, a 7th inning reliever, a minimum-wage veteran infielder, and two 35+ year-old starters is one thing. But making a long-term investment in Harper or Machado is another thing. This is exactly where the Yankees financial might is most crucial. It allows Cashman to assemble a competitive team and then add the expensive, impact player to take them over the top.
Spending simply for spending’s sake is foolish. And it’s reasonable to assume the Yankees may have been spending too much of revenue on player payroll in the early 2000s to be sustainable — in 2003 for example, the Yankees spent more than 75 percent of revenue on payroll, while league average was 59 percent.
But there’s no denying these facts:
- The Yankees window to win the World Series is open now, and there is no guarantee — no matter how talented the roster — that the window will remain open for a long time.
- The Yankees have not even won their division since 2012.
- Young players on potential Hall of Fame paths are rarely, if ever, available in free agency. This offseason, two of them are.
- The Yankees have room for both Machado and/or Harper on the 25-man roster, and both would improve the team in 2019 and going forward.
- The Yankees are currently spending a smaller percent of revenue on player payroll than they have at any point in the last 15+ years and well below league average.
- The Yankees rake in more revenue than any other MLB team by a wide margin.
It feels like the Yankees are at a crossroads. The years-long goal of getting under the luxury tax threshold and resetting the penalties has been accomplished. Hal Steinbrenner and the Yankees brass must decide if the team will once again wield their checkbook as a financial cudgel over their rivals or simply accept being just another team hovering around the luxury tax threshold.
For fans who have only seen prices — for tickets, parking, stadium food, memorabilia — go up over the last 15 years, it surely does not appear like the Yankee ownership will be sharing any of the savings they enjoy.
So swing the cudgel, Hal. This is your moment.
Poll: The 2019 Leadoff Hitter
Barring a surprise Manny Machado or Bryce Harper signing — either would qualify as a big surprise to me at this point — the 2019 Yankees are pretty much set on the position player side. They do have to figure out their bench, and the DH spot will be something of a revolving door, but the nine starters are in place. The Troy Tulowitzki signing addressed the middle infield opening and that was the last remaining position player question.
Here, for the sake of laying it all out, are the starting nine position players the Yankees will use on most days this coming season:
- Catcher: Gary Sanchez
- First Base: Luke Voit
- Second Base: Gleyber Torres
- Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki
- Third Base: Miguel Andujar
- Left Field: Brett Gardner
- Center Field: Aaron Hicks
- Right Field: Aaron Judge
- Designated Hitter: Giancarlo Stanton
That’s it, right? Right. I suspect Stanton will see more time in left field next year as Gardner’s playing time is scaled back — at the very least, Gardner should sit against lefties going forward — but that’s the starting nine most days. Pretty good squad, I’d say. FanGraphs projects that crew to average 5.03 runs per game in 2019, second most in baseball.
What we don’t know is how Aaron Boone will fill out his lineup card. Judge will probably hit second and Stanton will probably hit third or fourth. That’s about all we know for sure. And, frankly, I’m not sure there’s a wrong answer for the rest of the lineup because the Yankees have so many good hitters. Gardner and Tulowitzki are the clear weak links. Everyone else is pretty dangerous in the batter’s box.
The leadoff spot is a bigger question now than it has been at any point in the last four or five years because Gardner has declined. From 2013-18, it was plug Gardner into the leadoff spot and watch him grind away. Now, after a .236/.322/.368 (90 wRC+) line last season, and a .209/.288/.316 (66 wRC+) line in the second half, Gardner in the leadoff spot is no sure thing. Even against righties (95 wRC+).
Andrew McCutchen took over the leadoff spot late last year and he did the job very well. McCutchen’s gone now though. The Yankees have to again figure out the leadoff spot and there’s a chance they won’t get it right the first time, and will have to adjust on the fly. It happens. Lineups are ever-changing. I see four leadoff candidates on the roster.
The Safe Pick: Brett Gardner
Yup. Just put Gardner back in the leadoff spot and see what happens. Perhaps he’ll rebound following an offseason of rest and put up a solid season, or even just a solid first half. If nothing else, you know Gardner will grind out at-bats and see a lot of pitches. He saw 4.24 pitches per plate appearances last season, tied with McCutchen for the ninth most in baseball. Gardner still runs the bases really well too. He went 16-for-18 stealing bases with a 54% extra-base taken rate, far better than the 40% league average. Given the current roster, giving Gardner one last crack at the leadoff spot is an option.
The Obvious Pick: Aaron Hicks
Yeah, Hicks is probably most qualified to be the leadoff hitter this coming season. He gets on base (.366 OBP in 2018), he sees a ton of pitches (4.28 per plate appearances), he can run (11-for-13 in steals and 54% extra-base taken rate), he switch-hits, and he has power. Teams are all about power hitters atop the lineup these days. Francisco Lindor (38 homers), Matt Carpenter (36 homers), and Mookie Betts (32 homers) were all primary leadoff hitters last year. Charlie Blackmon set a new MLB record with 37 homers as a leadoff hitter in 2017.
The downside here is Hicks is the team’s best (only) left-handed threat at the plate and you know the Yankees want to split Judge and Stanton up. I wish they’d just bat them back-to-back but, clearly, the Yankees want to split them up with a lefty whenever possible. With Didi Gregorius sidelined, Hicks is the obvious candidate to hit third between Judge and Stanton. That’s where he hit in the postseason, remember. Are the Yankees willing to bat Judge and Stanton back-to-back, or squeeze another righty between them? If no, Hicks probably gets the nod as the third place hitter.
The Sexy Pick: Gleyber Torres
Now we’re talking. Torres put up a .271/.340/.480 (120 wRC+) batting line last season that is impressive for any player. It is especially impressive for a 21-year-old middle infielder thrust into a postseason race in New York. Torres had a lot of hype to live up to last season and he certainly did it. In year two as a big leaguer, Gleyber could take another step forward and become a legitimate top of the order threat. Would be cool.
This much we know: Torres got on base at a good rate last season (.340 OBP), he saw lots of pitches (4.03 per plate appearance), and he has some of that new school leadoff power. The one traditional leadoff skill Torres lacks is baserunning. He’s a crummy baserunner. If he gets on base and creates enough havoc from the leadoff spot though, you can overlook some bad baserunning. Gleyber’s skills suggest last year’s on-base ability and power is no fluke. He can do it again, and even improve on it with experience.
The YOLO Pick: Aaron Judge
Why the hell not? Boone flirted with batting Judge leadoff against lefties last season. He never went through with it but he did talk about it. At this time last season we didn’t know Torres and Andujar would do what they did and give the Yankees that extra lineup length. Judge’s power in the leadoff spot didn’t make much sense at the time. He was needed in a more traditional run-producing spot.
Now though? Now we know Torres and Andujar are threats with the bat, and that Hicks is for real. We know the Yankees have a deep offense with power up and down the lineup. True, they only had one 30-homer guy last season. They also had four 27-homer guys. Do you know how many teams in baseball history have had five players hit at least 27 homers in a season? The complete list:
- 2018 Yankees
- 1956 Redlegs (the Reds went by Redlegs from 1954-58)
That’s it. Two teams in baseball history have done it. And — and! — all five guys who hit 27 homers for the Yankees could do it again. Hicks and Stanton were the oldest 27-homer guys at 28. Maybe they don’t all hit 27+ homers again. Point is, the Yankees have a lot of power in their lineup, so much so that moving Judge to leadoff is a more viable option. Going into last year, they needed his power in the middle of the lineup. Not so much now.
We have two years of evidence telling us Judge is an elite on-base player. He did lose 30 OBP points from 2017-18, but we’re talking about going from a .422 OBP to a still excellent .392 OBP. Judge draws a ton of walks (career 16.7%) and every time you look up he’s in a 3-2 count. Those are the type of at-bats you want from a leadoff hitter. Add in the power and a league average extra-base taken rate, and you’ve got a guy who is an instant threat at the plate to begin every game.
* * *
I suppose that, if he shows some life with the bat, Tulowitzki could become a leadoff option at some point. I can’t imagine going into the season with him atop the lineup though. The Yankees will want to see some leadoff worthy production before moving Tulowitzki up high in the lineup, and not just in Spring Training either. Spring Training lies, man. Tulowitzki will have to produce in the regular season before getting a chance at leadoff.
Signing Machado or Harper would change the leadoff equation considerably. Both would slot into the No. 3 lineup spot nicely between Judge and Stanton, freeing up Hicks for leadoff duty. Or, on the other hand, adding another middle of the order bat makes Judge at leadoff an even greater possibility. Anyway, this is begging for a poll, so let’s get to it.
Brian Cashman confirms Domingo German has a fourth minor league option
In a pleasantly surprisingly bit of news, Brian Cashman confirmed to Brendan Kuty that righty Domingo German has a fourth minor league option. That means the Yankees will be able to send him to Triple-A this coming season without exposing him to waivers. (Cashman also confirmed Luis Cessa out of options, which we knew already.)
Long story short, players get three options once they’re added to the 40-man roster. That means they can be sent back and forth between MLB and the minors in three separate seasons with no issues. Once a player exhausts his three option years, he has to pass through waivers to go to the minors, which can create some roster headaches.
The eligibility rules for a fourth option year were complicated a few years ago but MLB has apparently simplified things. Here are the fourth option rules:
If a player misses an entire option year due to injury or expends his third option year before he has completed five professional seasons (Major Leagues and Minor Leagues included), he can receive a fourth option year.
German falls into the former category. He missed 2015, his first option year, rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, so that qualifies him for the fourth option. German used his original three options in 2015, 2017, and 2018. (He didn’t use an option in 2016 because he was a non-40-man roster player after being non-tendered and re-signed to a minor league deal prior to the season.)
Alright, so what does this mean? It means the Yankees will again be able to use German as an up-and-down arm in 2019. Had he not qualified for a fourth option, he would’ve had to pass through waivers to go to Triple-A, and there’s no chance he’d clear. Not at age 26 and not with an arm like that. The Yankees would’ve been forced to either keep German on their MLB roster, trade him, or lose him on waivers. Now they have more roster flexibility.
German pitched to a 5.57 ERA (4.39 FIP) in 85.2 innings spread across 14 starts and seven relief appearances last season. His strikeout (27.2%) and walk (8.8%) rates were good. He didn’t get as many ground balls (37.4%) as his stuff would lead you to believe though. Because he can be sent back to Triple-A without passing through waivers, German is now the odds on favorite to serve as the spot starter/sixth starter this coming season (pending a Sonny Gray trade).
Cessa, Tommy Kahnle, Hanser Alberto, and Gary Sanchez are the only players on the 40-man roster who are currently out of minor league options. Aaron Hicks and Austin Romine are out of options as well, but because they have more than five years of service time, they could’ve refused a minor league demotion even if they had options.
Prospect Profile: Deivi Garcia
Deivi Garcia | RHP
Background
The 19-year-old Garcia grew up in Bonoa, Dominican Republic, which has produced its fair share of big leaguers, most notably Juan Cruz, Carlos Marmol, Adalberto Mejia, and Joel Peralta. Neither MLB.com nor Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Garcia as one of the top 30 prospects for the 2015-16 international signing period.
The Yankees were in the penalty phase for their 2014-15 international spending spree at the time, meaning their signing bonuses were capped at $300,000. Garcia received a $200,000 bonus. As best I can tell, that is the third largest bonus the Yankees handed out during the 2015-16 signing period, behind shortstop Jesus Bastidas ($300,000) and righty Luis Medina ($280,000).
Pro Career
Like most international signees, Garcia made his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League. He made 12 starts and threw 48.1 innings with a 2.61 ERA (3.22 FIP) for the DSL2 squad in 2016. (The Yankees had two DSL affiliates, DSL1 and DSL2, up until two years ago. Now they have one.) Garcia posted a 31.6% strikeout rate and a 16.6% walk rate in those 48.1 innings.
The Yankees had Garcia begin the 2017 season back in the DSL, but, after three starts, they brought him to the United States. Garcia made four appearances and threw 16.2 innings in the rookie Gulf Coast League before being moved up to rookie Pulaski, where he made six starts and threw 28 innings. He pitched well at all three levels and finished with a 3.30 ERA (3.44 FIP) and strong strikeout (36.6%) and walk (8.8%) rates in 60 total innings in 2017.
Garcia started last season in Extended Spring Training and finished it in Double-A. He made his official game season debut in a June 5th spot start for High-A Tampa. Garcia was then moved down to Low-A Charleston, where he made eight starts, before moving back up to High-A Tampa. He made four starts with Tampa and closed the season with a spot start with Double-A Trenton. His level-by-level numbers:
G | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | GB% | HR/9 | Whiff% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Low-A Charleston | 8 | 40.2 | 3.76 | 3.15 | 37.1% | 5.9% | 25.9% | 1.11 | 16.1% |
High-A Tampa | 5 | 28.1 | 1.26 | 1.96 | 32.1% | 7.3% | 35.9% | 0.00 | 12.0% |
Double-A Trenton | 1 | 5 | 0.00 | 1.73 | 41.2% | 11.8% | 37.5% | 0.00 | 14.3% |
Total | 14 | 74 | 2.55 | 2.60 | 35.5% | 6.8% | 30.6% | 0.61 | 14.5% |
Nine-hundred-and-two pitchers threw at least 70 innings in the minors in 2018. Among those 902 pitchers, Garcia had the fifth highest strikeout rate (35.5%) and the fourth highest K-BB% rate (28.7%). Both marks were the best among teenagers. (The next best rates among teenagers were 31.2 K% and 26.9 K-BB% by separate pitchers.)
Scouting Report
Two things immediately stand out about Garcia. The first is his size. He’s listed at 5-foot-10 and 163 lbs., and that’s after bulking up from his listed 145 lbs. when he signed. Garcia is quite diminutive, and his low ground ball rate indicates he’s had trouble generating downward plane on his fastball because of his size. That’s a physical limitation thing. Not a “it’ll get better with experience” thing.
The second thing that stands out is his raw stuff. Garcia’s arsenal is headlined by a hammer curveball in the upper-70s/low-80s. Both the curveball and his low-to-mid-90s fastball generate very high spin rates, with reports indicating the curveball has been clocked at north of 3,000 rpm. That’s elite curveball spin even for big leaguers. Garcia made real strides with his changeup last season and it’s now a third reliable pitch.
Fairly or unfairly, Garcia’s durability and his ability to start will always be in question because of his size. Only 13 right-handers standing no taller than 5-foot-10 have accumulated at least +10 WAR over the last 50 years. Garcia has been completely healthy as a pro to date, and hey, he is still only 19, so a growth spurt could still be coming. (If it does, it stands to reason he’ll add velocity.) Right now, his size is a potential obstacle to long-term MLB success. That’s what history suggests.
2019 Outlook
I know Garcia made that one Double-A spot start last season — he would’ve started Game Five of Trenton’s first round postseason series had they not been swept in the best-of-five series — but he’s almost certainly going to return to High-A Tampa to begin 2019. For starters, he made only five starts at that level last year. Five dominant starts, but still only five starts. Garcia still has things to learn at that level. Almost no one masters it that quickly, especially not a teenager.
And secondly, Garcia is still only 19. He won’t turn 20 until mid-May. Only two 19-year-old pitchers (Padres lefty Adrian Morejon and Braves lefty Ian Anderson) were on High Class-A Opening Day rosters last year, so Garcia very well might be the youngest pitcher in the Florida State League when the regular season begins. Keeping him in Tampa at least until the weather warms up in Trenton strikes me as the obvious move. I expect Garcia to return to Double-A at some point this summer and, if he continues pitching this well, a late season cameo with Triple-A Scranton could be in the cards.
My Take
Big Garcia fan. His size does make me skeptical about his ability to start long-term — Garcia would buck a lot of history if he’s able to do it — but, if he has to settle for a bullpen role, his fastball/curveball combination figures to make him a true high-leverage option for the late-innings. Either way, his newfound strike-throwing ability is awfully exciting. I didn’t think his control would improve that quickly. If Garcia can remain a starter, great. If he has to move to the bullpen, so be it. There’s no shame in that nowadays. (Part of me can’t help but wonder if he’s trade bait because the Yankees may be worried about his size.)
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