Jim Callis of Baseball America sat down to talk about the draft with Rich Lederer and Baseball Analysts. Callis probably knows more about the draft than anyone on the planet, so make sure you head on over and check it out. They cover all the usual suspects, and also touch on some players with big bonus demands that might slip down the Yanks. It’s worth the read.
2009 Draft: MLB cuts slot bonuses 10%
Via Baseball America, Major League Baseball will reduce it’s recommended slot bonuses for 2009 by ten percent across the board. MLB also reduced slot money by 10% back in 2007, fearing that the new August 15th signing deadline would give players increased leverage in contract negotiations. Slot for the Yanks’ first pick, #29 overall, was expected to be around $1.25M, but will now be approximately $1.125M. Slot money for the 76th overall pick goes from $530,000 to $477,000, give or take a couple thousand dollars.
2009 Draft: KLaw’s Mock Draft
Keith Law’s mock draft hit ESPN’s site last night, and although it’s hidden behind the Insider wall, I can tell you that he has the Yanks taking Texas prep southpaw Matt Purke in the first round. Purke is widely considered to be the second best prep LHP in the class, trailing only Tyler Matzek of California. KLaw mentions that Purke’s price tag conveniently shot up earlier this month, which could allow him to drop out of the top 15, where his talent and power arm says he should be taken. Here’s a clip from Purke’s showing at the Under Armour All-American Showcase. Klaw also notes that the Yanks’ backup plan includes polished college players. That saddens me.
Here’s Law’s updated top 100 draft prospects list, also posted yesterday. Unfortunately, that’s Insider content too. He has Purke ranked 13th overall, just ahead of USC SS Grant Green and HS 3B Matt Davidson.
2009 Draft: Project Prospect’s Mock Draft
Lincoln Hamilton at Project Prospect posted his mock draft yesterday, openly acknowledging that these things are a “special sort of useless.” He has the Yanks taking southpaw starter Rex Brothers out of Limpscomb, noting that his electric arm fits in with some of the Yanks recent high draftees like Joba Chamberlain, Andrew Brackman and Gerrit Cole. I’m not a big Brothers fan because he lacks command and a useable third pitch, something typical of high school kids, not college vets. Lincoln has the Rays taking righty Eric Arnett out of Indiana one pick after the Yanks. I would much prefer him because he’s much more refined than Limpscomb while still offering premium stuff.
2009 Draft: The High School Pitcher Myth
The common perception these days is that high school pitchers are the riskiest demographic in the draft, while in reality they’re no more riskier than their college counterparts. This train of thought really came to the forefront once Moneyball was released. Erik Manning at Future Redbirds (h/t BtB) points out that while hitters are a far safer bet when it comes to the draft, high school and college pitchers come with basically the same risk and are likely produce at a similar level in the future. John Sickels at Minor League Ball put together a list of the best pitchers in 2008 according to Win Shares, and of the 65 starters with at least 10 WS, 24 were from HS and 23 were from four-year colleges. Taking it one step further, 11 of the top 20 pitchers in WAR this year are HSers, and just four are from four-year colleges.
I’ve long been a fan of taking high school players over college players. College players spend three years under an amateur coaching and training staff during their prime development years, and often develop bad habits hitting with/pitching to players with metal bats. The top arms often experience workloads that their bodies may not be ready to handle just yet. What do you guys think? Do you but into the idea that college players are a better pick because they’re safer, or do you feel otherwise?
2009 Draft: Yanks connected to Sanchez
Via ESPN’s Draft Blog, the Yankees have been connected to Boston College backstop Tony Sanchez in recent days. Sanchez is the top college catcher in the draft and is hitting .354-.456-.641 with 14 homers for the Eagles this season. MLB.com’s scouting report notes that he has a good swing, power potential and ability to stay behind the plate long term. Here’s a clip of his swing, and another of him blocking a ball in the dirt. Keith Law rated him the 35th best prospect in the draft. Sanchez wouldn’t be a bad pick at #29, and if the Yanks choose to go conservative since they won’t receive another compensation pick if they don’t sign their first rounder again, Sanchez is exactly the kind of player they could go for. Given that catchers are often overdrafted because of the scarcity of the position, and the fact that college hitters are overvalued in general, I bet someone pops Sanchez before he gets to the Yanks.
2009 Draft: Callis on tough signs
Jim Callis of Baseball America discussed three players likely to fall in next month’s draft because of signability concerns. I profiled two of the players – CF Donovan Tate (Georgia HS) & RHP Jacob Turner (St. Louis HS) – earlier this year. Tate is a supreme athlete but is still learning to convert those physical gifts into baseball tools. He also has the added leverage of a football scholarship to UNC working for him. Turner has started to make good on some of the projection he offers, jumping from 89-91 earlier in the year to 95-97 down the stretch. The third player, California Texas HS LHP Matt Purke, wants a boatload of cash but offers an extremely live arm (92-94 mph heat with plenty of projection remaining) and is arguably the best lefty prospect in the draft. Any of the three would be a major, major steal for the Yanks at #29.
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