2018 Season Review Archives - Page 4 of 6

The Arrival of Miguel Andujar [2018 Season Review]

November 6, 2018 by Mike

All offseason long I sat here saying “I can’t see the Yankees going into 2018 with two rookie infielders.” Just didn’t seem like a thing the Yankees would do. And yet, the days kept ticking away, and eventually the Yankees went into Spring Training with two rookies penciled into the infield. Some combination of Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres, and Tyler Wade were poised to play second and third bases.

That changed on February 20th. Two days after position players reported to Spring Training, the Yanks traded for Brandon Drury to play third base. Three weeks after that, they signed Neil Walker to play second. Those moves pushed Andujar and Torres to Triple-A and, honestly, it wasn’t the worst thing in the world. Andujar had to work on his defense and Torres was coming back from Tommy John surgery.

As you know, Torres and Andujar wound up spending almost the entire 2018 season as the starters at second and third bases, respectively. In Andujar’s case, Drury suffered an injury early in the season, early enough that Andujar never did play a game for Triple-A Scranton. He was called back up before their season started. Drury’s injury gave Andujar his opportunity and wow did he run with it.

In 606 plate appearances — only Giancarlo Stanton (705) and Brett Gardner (609) had more plate appearances among Yankees this year — the 23-year-old Andujar put up a .297/.328/.527 (128 wRC+) batting line with 47 doubles and 27 home runs. His walk rate (4.1%) and on-base percentage were much lower than you’d like, but a) Andujar was just a rookie, and b) Andujar made up for it by doing everything else so well at the plate.

Despite not making the Opening Day roster, Andujar turned in a Rookie of the Year caliber season and was probably the team’s most consistent hitter from start to finish. He had his slumps, no doubt, but they didn’t seem to last all that long. If the Yankees had their way, Drury would’ve seized the third base job and run with it. Instead, Andujar took it from Drury and who knows where the Yankees would’ve been without him. Time to review his season.

Power & Contact

Andujar’s calling card throughout the minors was his innate ability to get the barrel on the ball. No matter where it was pitched, he could square it up. His breakout 2016 season featured a career high in doubles (26) and homers (12) with a 12.6% strikeout rate at High-A and Double-A. Last year Andujar had 36 doubles and 16 homers with a 13.6% strikeout rate at Double-A and Triple-A. He gets the bat on the ball and he hits it with authority.

This season Andujar pounded 47 doubles and 27 homers with a 16.0% strikeout rate and a 9.6% swing and miss rate, both of which are quite a bit better than the league average (22.3% and 10.7%). Fourteen qualified hitters paired a .230 ISO with a sub-10.0% swing-and-miss rate this season, and they’re basically the 13 best hitters in baseball (Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, Jose Ramirez, etc.) and Miguel Andujar.

Swing-and-miss data goes back to 2002. Since then 241 hitters had at least 400 plate appearances during their rookie season. A chart of those 241 rookie hitters:

There are not many dots in that chart around Andujar, meaning rookie hitters with a few swings and misses and lots of power. In fact, only two rookies since 2002 paired a lower swing-and-miss rate with a higher ISO than Andujar this year: Mike Trout (7.2% and .238) and Carlos Correa (8.4% and .233). Those two did it at age 20 and that’s far more impressive than Andujar doing it age 23. Among similar aged rookies, Andujar’s there with Nick Swisher and Evan Longoria (and Joey Votto!).

Point is, not many players this season swung and missed as little as Andujar while providing as much power as Andujar, and even fewer rookies have done it this century. It’s one of those things you can’t teach. I couldn’t tell you how many times Andujar swung at a pitch out of the zone, I wondered to myself why in the hell he swung at that, and then watched it fall in for a hit. Remember his two-strike walk-off hit against the Indians?

It just works, man. Pitchers adjusted too. They threw Andujar fewer fastballs and fewer pitches in the strike zone as the season progressed, and he slumped initially, but then he adjusted back and did better job laying off those pitches he couldn’t get to. It is a very unique skill set. Andujar makes contact like a slap-hitting speedster but he drives the ball like the power hitter, and he’s in control of his at-bats more than the walk rate would lead you to believe. In a lineup loaded with patient count-workers, this is a very different look.

The blend of contact and power allowed Andujar to finish 12th in baseball with 76 extra-base hits — Miggy Mantle had one more extra-base hit than Manny Machado in 103 fewer plate appearances — and tied for third in doubles in with Mookie Betts. Only Alex Bregman and Eduardo Escobar had more two-baggers. The all-time AL rookie doubles leaderboard:

Miguel Andujar, 2018 Yankees: 47
Fred Lynn, 1975 Red Sox: 47
Hal Strosky, 1934 Indians: 45
Roy Johnson, 1929 Tigers: 45
Shoeless Joe Jackson, 1911 White Sox: 45

Johnny Frederick is the only rookie in baseball history to finish a season with more doubles than Andujar. (Frederick had 52 with the 1929 Dodgers.) Andujar broke Joe DiMaggio’s franchise rookie record for doubles (44) and keep in mind he did it in a home ballpark that isn’t conducive to doubles. Yankee Stadium is a home run ballpark. It is not a good doubles (or triples) park. Andujar still managed to tie Lynn’s AL record.

“I got to wait and see how the voting goes. Let the best rookie win,” said Andujar after the season when asked about potentially winning Rookie of the Year. “It would mean a lot and to my family and teammates. It will be motivation to keep on working harder.”

Let’s Talk About His Defense

Andujar is an impressive young hitter. He is not a good defensive third baseman, and it seemed he got worse as the season progressed, not better. Aaron Boone praised Andujar’s hard work and made sure to mention him whenever he had a good game in the field, but, when push came to shove in the postseason, Andujar was lifted for a defensive replacement in the sixth inning. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player pulled for defense that early.

Furthermore, the Yankees employed a personal third baseman for CC Sabathia. Sabathia faces a ton of right-handed batters and because he pitches inside with his cutter so much, it means a lot of weak rollers to the left side of the infield. Neil Walker, who is no defensive dynamo himself, started six of Sabathia’s final seven starts, including ALDS Game Four. (That the extra-base hit machine rookie did not pinch-hit in the ninth inning of Game Four still annoys me, but I digress.)

“When I started watching Andujar in the winter, I felt like there was a ways to go for him. But I also felt like he could do it,” Boone said in June. “I would say at this point he has passed those expectations. All around, he’s been an impact player for us,. It’s a credit to him because he works really hard. The work he puts in on a daily basis has made him a solid third baseman.”

Andujar’s defensively deficiencies are not due to a lack of work. I am not the most seasoned guy you’ll find but in my years as a BBWAA member I’ve never seen a player out on the field for defensive work more than Andujar. He’s on the field every afternoon with infield coach Carlos Mendoza and also occasionally Boone, a former big league third baseman, taking grounder after grounder after grounder. Andujar works on his defense. A lot.

And yet, it’s still not good. Andujar’s hands are fine and his arm is strong. His footwork is a mess though, and he often double clutches his throws, which makes things unnecessarily difficult. Also, his sidearm release sometimes causes the ball to tail away from the first baseman. Here is the Miguel Andujar defensive experience in a nutshell:

Awkward footwork, a double clutch, and a short-hopped throw. Andujar ranked dead last among all defenders at any position with -16 UZR this season and he was second-to-last with -25 DRS. (Charlie Blackmon was at -28 DRS.) DRS data goes back to 2003. The worst third base seasons on record:

2007 Ryan Braun: -32 (moved to left field in 2008)
2014 Nick Castellanos: -30 (stayed at third until 2016 before moving to right field)
2007 Garrett Atkins: -26 (split time between first and third bases starting in 2008)
2008 Miguel Andujar: -25
2005 Mark Teahen: -21 (moved to the outfield full-time in 2007)

In the DRS era, very few third baseman had a season as poor defensively as Andujar this year, and those that did changed positions after no more than two more seasons at the hot corner. “Keep working on my routine. Don’t give up on it and the goal is to be more consistent overall,” said Andujar a few weeks ago when asked about working on his defense in the offseason.

The Yankees have not yet said anything about Andujar’s defensive future and, truth be told, they may not have made a decision yet. It probably depends on their offseason moves, right? If the Yankees sign Manny Machado, they’ll need to start thinking about moving Andujar elsewhere. If they replace Didi Gregorius with a stopgap, they could continue to work with Andujar at third since he’ll probably be there for at least one more season.

I weirdly have no firm opinion about Andujar’s defensive future. On one hand, he was so bad this season that a position change makes sense. I’d try the outfield before first base, personally. First base is sort of a last resort position. On the other hand, the kid is only 23! I’d hate to move him off a premium position after one terrible defensive season, a terrible defensive season that came as a rookie. Give him a chance to settle in, you know? If the Yankees move him, I’d be okay with. If they stuck with him at third, I’d be okay with it too. We’ll see.

What’s Next?

Aside from Didi Gregorius, who recently underwent Tommy John surgery, no other position player on the Yankees faces as much uncertainty going forward as Andujar. It’s a weird thing to say about a kid who put up those numbers this season, but Andujar’s future is a little up in the air. None of the following would surprise me:

Andujar gets traded (for a starting pitcher, presumably).
Andujar stays at third base in 2019.
Andujar moves to another position in 2019.

Right now, I’d rank those three outcomes (2) (3) (1) in order of likelihood. A trade does seem unlikely. Even though the Yankees need pitching, Andujar is a significant piece of the offense, and there is plenty of pitching in free agency. Moving him to another position? Okay, yeah, I could see it. Same with Andujar staying at third base. I expect Andujar to be in the starting lineup coming Opening Day 2019. At what position? That is TBD.

Giancarlo Stanton’s Very Good, Very Uneven First Season as a Yankee [2018 Season Review]

November 5, 2018 by Mike

At this time last year, Giancarlo Stanton was nowhere to be found on the Yankees’ radar. He was coming off a historic 59-homer season and was about to be named NL MVP, and while the Marlins made it clear they were ready to tear things down, Stanton and his contract didn’t seem to fit the luxury tax plan. Besides, the Yankees already had Aaron Judge in right field, and he’s the closest thing to Stanton in baseball.

Fast forward to December 9th. Stanton had used his no-trade clause to block deals to the Cardinals and Giants, and he reportedly told the Marlins he would only accept a trade to four teams: Astros, Cubs, Dodgers, and Yankees. The four 2017 LCS teams and arguably the four teams best set up for contention in 2018 and beyond. Stanton backed the Marlins into a corner with his no-trade clause and the Yankees took advantage.

The Astros, Cubs, and Dodgers never seriously pursued Stanton. It was Yankees or bust for the Marlins, and that meant Miami had no leverage. Not even 48 hours after the news broke that Stanton had blocked trades to St. Louis and San Francisco, the Yankees and Marlins had a deal in place. The details:

Yankees get: Stanton and $30M in conditional money
Marlins get: Starlin Castro, Jose Devers, Jorge Guzman

The Yankees acquired the reigning NL MVP — the 28-year-old reigning NL MVP — for Castro and two good but not great Single-A prospects. The impending arrival of Gleyber Torres made Castro expendable and neither Devers nor Guzman were among the farm system’s elite. (Aside: The Marlins currently have zero top 100 prospects according to MLB.com. How do you trade Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna in one offseason and wind up with no top 100 prospects? Yikes.)

Furthermore, the Marlins are due to send the Yankees $30M if Stanton does not use his opt-out clause following the 2020 season. Even though they may never actually receive that money, the Yankees still get to subtract it from Stanton’s contract for luxury tax purposes, so they got him with a $22M luxury tax hit. Chris Davis, Jason Heyward, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jordan Zimmermann, and Justin Upton, are among the players with similar luxury tax hits. Wait until Bryce Harper and Manny Machado sign. That $22M is going to look like a bargain.

During his first season in pinstripes Stanton authored a .266/.343/.509 (127 wRC+) batting line with 38 homers and +4 WAR (according to both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference). An extremely productive season, that is. It’s also a bit of a disappointment relative to his 2017 season, though it was always unfair to expect him to be that good again. But still, going into 2018 his career batting line was .268/.360/.554 (145 wRC+), and Stanton fell short of that.

Two prolonged slumps — one right at the start of the season and one late in the season — combined with an ugly final at-bat seem to make Stanton’s inaugural season in the Bronx feel worse than it really was. He was very productive. And, fairly or unfairly, his season was short of expectations. Let’s review Stanton’s first season in New York.

A Slump Early, A Slump Late

Remember how Stanton started his season? Of course you do. Two homers on Opening Day. One against future Yankees teammate J.A. Happ (in his first at-bat as a Yankee) and one against two-time former Yankee Tyler Clippard. One to the opposite field — at 117.3 mph, it is the hardest hit opposite field homer of the Statcast era — and one to dead center field. Stanton went 3-for-4 with two homers and a double in the Game One win.

Giancarlo hit the skids after that, going 4-for-37 (.108) with 19 strikeouts in his next nine games, including in an ugly 0-for-5 with five strikeouts game in the home opener. That earned him ~~some~~ many boos from the Yankee Stadium faithful. Stanton had a separate 2-for-27 (.074) seven-game rut later in the April and he closed out the season’s first month with a .230/.313/.425 (100 wRC+) batting line and a 33.6% strikeout rate.

“I was awful today. You put up a performance like that you should get some boos,” he said following the five-strikeout home opener. No. 4 hitter Didi Gregorius hit two homers and drove in eight runs batting behind Stanton in the same game and Giancarlo quipped, “That’s what a cleanup hitter does. You clean up the garbage in front of you.”

The second prolonged slump of Stanton’s season came in the second half and doesn’t fit neatly into one single month. It spanned August 19th to September 19th. In those 27 games Stanton hit .154/.270/.260 (49 wRC+) with 35.3% strikeouts. Between the April and August/September slumps, that is 55 games worth of .194/.292/.346 (75 wRC+) with 34.4% strikeouts. That’s one-third of the season. One-third of the season split in half and months apart, but 55 games is one-third of the season, and that was one-third of the season of well-below-average production.

Between those two slumps, Stanton was a monster. Legitimate MVP caliber production. Stanton hit .301/.363/.581 (150 wRC+) with 27 homers in 94 games from May 1st through August 18th. That’s a 47-homer pace. Giancarlo did still strike out a bunch during those 94 games (28.3%), but the guy did hit .301 with a ton of homers, and he did much of that while playing on a tight left hamstring. At one point he started 85 consecutive games. Even with the hamstring, the Yankees couldn’t take him out of the lineup. He was too productive and the offense was shorthanded.

Early on Stanton struggled against righties and at home, but that soon evened out, and he finished the season with a 112 wRC+ against righties and a 106 wRC+ at home. He was much better against lefties (174 wRC+) and on the road (147 wRC+) though. Ask Michael Kay and he’ll say Stanton’s Signature Moment™ came on June 20th, when the Yankees erased a 5-0 deficit against the Mariners and Giancarlo clocked a walk-off home run.

Believe it or not, Stanton was second in baseball with six four-hit games this year, one behind Mookie Betts and two more than every other AL player. He also hit .371/.423/.700 with six doubles and five homers in 18 regular season games against the Red Sox, and even though it didn’t make a difference in the AL East race, the effort was certainly appreciated. And finally, Stanton also hit his 300th career home run on August 30th. He was the fifth fastest and ninth youngest to the milestone.

First impressions matter and, even with two dingers on Opening Day, Stanton’s first impression was a strikeout-filled slump in April. He struggled again late in mid-August through mid-September, and, of course, Stanton’s final at-bat of the year was a hideous strikeout in the middle of the Yankees’ failed ninth inning rally against Craig Kimbrel in ALDS Game Four. A great Opening Day, a bad extended first impression, an ugly end, and an awful lot of production in between.

“I don’t want to just experience the postseason. I want to win it all,” said Stanton following the ALDS Game Four loss. “I’m just as disappointed as the guys that went further last year and came up short. I’m feeling some of their pain here but they got two years in a row … We’re going to come together and use this as fuel for next year.”

A Decline In Plate Discipline, An Increase In Grounders

Three numbers from Stanton’s first season with the Yankees really jump out at me. One, his strikeout rate, which jumped from 23.6% last year to 29.9% this year. That 29.9% strikeout rate is not out of the ordinary for Stanton. He had a 29.9% strikeout rate in 2015 and a 29.8% strikeout rate in 2016. The 23.6% last year is the outlier. Giancarlo closed up his stance in the middle of last season …

… and the hope was the adjustment meant the improved strikeout rate was permanent. Closing up his stance like that allowed Stanton to better read and react to those down-and-away sliders from right-handers, the bane of pretty much every right-handed hitter.

Instead, Stanton’s strikeout rate climbed back up to its pre-2017 levels this year, and, perhaps not coincidentally, Stanton did open up his stance a little bit this season.

Whatever the reason, Stanton’s strikeouts climbed this year. His 211 strikeouts are a new franchise record (Judge had 208 last year) and the sixth highest single-season total in baseball history. Giancarlo didn’t lead the league in strikeouts though. He can thank Yoan Moncada (217 strikeouts) for that. Yay?

Anyway, the second number that jumps out is Stanton’s walk rate. It went from 10.6% in 2016 to 12.3% in 2017 to 9.9% in 2018. It was his lowest walk rate since 2012. Stanton’s chase rate did climb this season and again, it merely returned to its pre-2017 levels rather than jump to new highs. His chase rates from 2015-18: 30.8%, 31.9%, 27.9%, 30.9%. More chases out of the zone equal more strikeouts and few walks. Pretty obvious there.

The third number? His ground ball rate. Stanton had a 45.0% ground ball rate this season, his highest since 2011, and that is far higher than what you’d like to see from a dude with his power. Giancarlo still hit the ball extraordinarily hard this season. He had a 42.3% hard contact rate and a 93.7 mph average exit velocity, both of which place in the 99th percentile. Stanton crushes the ball. He just put it on the ground too often this year.

In fact, Stanton hit so many grounders this year that he set a new career with 24 (!) infield hits. He had 24 infield hits combined from 2015-17. Then he had 24 in 2018. Same number as Brett Gardner and right behind dudes like Dee Gordon (26), Mallex Smith (26), and Trea Turner (25) on the leaderboard. Stanton’s hard contact plays into that. Per Statcast, the average third baseman positions himself 112 feet from home plate. With Stanton in the box, it’s 121 feet. The third baseman has that much farther to go when Giancarlo hits a weak tapper up the line, hence the infield hits.

The increase in strikeouts and grounders and decline in walk rate are likely attributable to several things rather than one specific thing. The fact Stanton opened his stance a bit midseason suggests he was trying to find better mechanics. He was seeing lots of new pitchers. He was undoubtedly pressing to some degree with his new team. There’s a lot that goes into it. Hopefully Giancarlo is more comfortable in Year Two as a Yankee and, even if the strikeout rate remains at its pre-2017 levels, the walks tick back up and grounders tick back down.

The Move To Left Field

Stanton was a career right fielder with the Marlins and the Yankees already had a pretty good right fielder in Judge. Squeezing those two plus Gardner and Aaron Hicks into the lineup meant someone would have to DH and someone would have to play left field whenever Gardner sat. Stanton wound up doing both. He led the team with 85 DH starts (Judge was second with 19) and also played 36 games in left field. They were the first 36 left field games of his career.

Going into Spring Training, Aaron Boone said the Yankees would figure out which outfield alignment worked best during camp, but it seemed they’d already decided it would be Stanton to shift over to left, not Judge. Judge did not see a single Grapefruit League inning in left field. It was Stanton who did the work out there. And, in his first spring game as a left fielder, this happened:

“I felt all right,” said Stanton after the game. “I got some bad balls that didn’t help the team at all. Got to find a way to get behind them or do something with those. But I felt all right. The routes and everything were good. The rest, not as.”

When you do that on literally the first ball hit your way at a new position, the “he struggles out there” narrative tends to stick. And Stanton was understandably rough around the edges in left field at first. He’d never played out there. But, once he got the hang of it, he was fine. More than fine, really. The defensive stats liked him (+4 DRS and +4.6 UZR) and I thought he looked pretty good by midseason, based on the eye test.

I don’t know what the Yankees’ plans are, but I’d like to see Stanton get more left field time going forward. That allows the team to limit Gardner’s playing time and also rotate some other players (Judge, Hicks, etc.) in at DH to give them a little break. There is definitely something to be said for having a set DH who mashes like David Ortiz or Nelson Cruz. I feel like so much time at DH wastes Stanton’s defensive ability though. Use it before he gets old and slows down. Some more left field time (outfield time in general) going forward works for me.

What’s Next?

Not a whole lot to say here. Stanton will be back next season in likely the exact same role as this season, that roving corner outfielder and DH role. Any speculation about a trade to the Dodgers is just that, speculation. It is mostly coming from frustrated fans and the corner of the media that likes to speculate about such things. Stanton is a very good player. A flawed player, no doubt, but a very good one who is right smack in the prime of his career and on a fair contract. The Yankees are trying to win right now. Worry about ugly years at the end of the contract when they come. The goal is to win now, with this core in place, and Stanton helps accomplish that.

Sonny and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Season [2018 Season Review]

November 2, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

This jersey might just be the high point of Gray’s season. (Patrick McDermott/Getty)

Way back in March, I had the privilege of writing the season preview for Sonny Gray. I did so with not so well-hidden glee, as I was all but certain that he would end up being a tremendous third starter for the Yankees. Take a look:

I’m a big fan of Gray; I was ecstatic when they traded for him, and I’m excited to see what he can do in a full season for the Yankees. There were some warts on his shiny ERA following the trade, and I can understand why he is viewed as something of a question mark heading into 2018. At the same time, though, he is a 28-year-old starter that has pitched like an ace at times, and has a fantastic repertoire – and he’s only really expected to be the team’s third starter. And there aren’t many – if any – better third starters in the game.

There was more than a bit of skepticism towards that stance, and the early returns this season made supporting Gray seem a fool’s errand. But, as Kurt Vonnegut wrote in The Sirens of Titan, “anybody who has traveled this far on a fool’s errand has no choice but to uphold the honor of fools by completing the errand.” And so I held out hope as bad starts mounted and trade winds swirled, appearing more and more foolish by the week.

But I digress. Let’s go back to the beginning.

The First Start

Gray exited his first start with some superficially tremendous numbers – notably a 2.25 ERA and 18.0 K/9. However, as was the case in his three months with the Yankees in 2018, his underlying numbers weren’t so hot. Gray only completed four innings due to an excessive pitch count (89), and he allowed seven hits and three walks along the way. He was pulled by Aaron Boone with one on and none out in the bottom of the fifth (an understandable and smart hook for the rookie manager), and was bailed out by Chad Green.

It’s difficult to take a great deal away from one start, but the walks and pitch count were endemic of the issues that made fans leery when he first donned pinstripes. And, as a fun bit of foreshadowing, here is where I’ll note that he threw just 6.74% four-seamers in that start – the lowest figure of his career.

The Frustration Sets In

In lieu of offering a start-by-start breakdown, I think that a simple list is all that you need to see in order to understand just how up-and-down Gray was this year. I won’t overload it with information, either – it’ll just be two numbers: innings pitched and runs allowed.

April 7 – 6.0 IP, 3 R
April 12 – 3.0 IP, 6 R
April 20 – 3.1 IP, 5 R
April 25 – 4.2 IP, 3 R
April 30 – 6.0 IP, 2 R
May 5 – 6.0 IP, 2 R
May 11 – 5.0 IP, 5 R
May 20 – 8.0 IP, 1 R
May 26 – 3.2 IP, 5 R
June 1 – 6.0 IP, 1 R
June 6 – 8.0 IP, 0 R
June 13 – 5.0 IP, 4 R
June 18 – 5.0 IP, 2 R
June 23 – 6.2 IP, 4 R
June 30 – 2.1 IP, 6 R
July 6 – 2.0 IP, 5 R
July 11 – 6.0 IP, 0 R
July 21 – 5.1 IP, 3 R
July 26 – 5.0 IP, 0 R
August 1 – 2.2 IP, 7 R

On August 2, it was announced that Gray would be moving to the bullpen in deference to the newly-acquired Lance Lynn, so this isn’t an arbitrary endpoint. This list simply ends when the Yankees grew tired of Gray’s inconsistency (and, in more plain terms, his 5.56 ERA through 21 starts).

In this stretch, Gray allowed 4+ runs nine times, and failed to finish the fifth inning seven times, which means he was putting pressure on the bullpen on both fronts. And every time he showed flashes of his old self (such as his outings on June 1 and June 6), he came crashing back to earth shortly thereafter.

Watching his first 21 starts felt almost sadistic, as he appeared out of sorts at all times. He couldn’t find the strike zone with any semblance of regularity, and when he did it always seemed to be thrown right down the middle. That has a degree of hyperbole to it, to be sure – but his 9.9% walk rate and 14.1% HR/FB suggest that it rings at least a bit true. The fact that he averaged 85 pitches per start despite average fewer than 5 IP speaks to that, as well.

A Reasonably Productive Closing Stretch

Gray made his first relief appearance in extra innings against the White Sox on August 7 – and it was a good one. He tossed three scoreless innings and allowed just two base-runners, while striking out four, and picked up the win.

He served as a swingman/long-man/long reliever from that point forward, and was more good than bad. Sure, he had two rough outings (including allowing 5 hits and 2 runs in an inning on August 12), but he finished out the season with a 2.35 ERA in his final nine appearances (26.2 IP). That included two spot-starts, which are a perfect exemplification of his season – 6.1 scoreless innings against the Orioles on August 25, and seven base-runners and three runs in three innings against the Twins on September 11.

Gray finished the season with a 4.90 ERA (89 ERA+) and 4.17 FIP in 130.1 IP. It wasn’t his worst season – that distinction belongs to his injury-riddled 2016 – but his 9.8% walk rate was the worst of his career, as was his 50.0% groundball rate.

What Went Wrong?

Yankee Stadium, for one. Take a look:

Home – 59.1 IP, 78 H, 35 BB, 45 K, 11 HR, 6.98 ERA, 5.98 FIP
Road – 71.0 IP, 60 H, 22 BB, 78 K, 3 HR, 3.17 ERA, 2.65 FIP

Gray was all but unplayable in the Bronx, but he was a borderline ace on the road. There’s some noise in smaller sample sizes of this nature, of course – but this is basically just a more extreme version of how he performed with the Yankees in 2017. Interestingly enough, Gray’s two best and two worst starts came at home; make of that what you will.

And, as I mentioned earlier, Gray’s four-seam usage went way down with the anti-fastball Yankees:

That trend started last year once he was acquired, and it continued this year. Gray threw just over 25% four-seamers this year, after being over 30% in each of his previous five seasons. That difference was made up for with his curveball usage, and that pitch was mediocre at-best; his slider, which is usually his best pitch, didn’t see that sort of uptick. It was a forced evolution, of sorts, and it was not effective.

What’s Next?

Gray has one year of arbitration eligibility left, and MLBTR projects a $9.1 MM salary. That is almost certainly moot, though, as Brian Cashman has indicated that Gray will be traded this off-season. So the only real question is who the Yankees can get in return.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. So long, Sonny.

The Continually Improving Aaron Hicks [2018 Season Review]

November 1, 2018 by Mike

Three years ago the Yankees and Twins made an old fashioned one-for-one baseball trade that created a lot of buzz within the game because, well, it was an old fashioned baseball trade. It wasn’t a salary dump, it wasn’t a rebuilding team hoarding prospects, it wasn’t a rental being moved at the deadline. It was a baseball deal. My guy for your guy. Talent for talent. John Ryan Murphy for Aaron Hicks.

The Yankees have since emerged as the clear winner in the trade. Murphy didn’t work out in Minnesota and, after a hot start to the season, he limped to the finish with the Diamondbacks this year. Hicks, meanwhile, stumbled in 2016 before cementing himself as one of the most productive outfielders in the game the last two seasons. Eighty-seven outfielders batted at least 800 times the last two years. Hicksie’s ranksies:

AVG: .255 (55th)
OBP: .368 (11th)
SLG: .470 (33rd)
wRC+: 127 (18th)
HR: 42 (32nd)
BB%: 15.0% (4th)
Baserunning runs: +9.6 (10th)
WAR: +8.2 (12th)

Hicks had 942 plate appearances from 2017-18. Rhys Hoskins is next at +5.1 WAR among outfielders with fewer than 1,000 plate appearance the last two years. The batting average is a little lower than you’d like, but everything else is pretty good, especially since Hicks is a center fielder putting up corner outfielder numbers.

Nagging injuries have slowed Hicks the last two years — last season it was a pair of oblique issues, this year it was an intercostal and hamstring trouble — but he still finished this season at .248/.366/.467 (127 wRC+) with a career high 27 home runs. Hicks also posted better than league average strikeout (19.1%) and walk (15.5%) rates, ran the bases well (+7.0 BsR), and played strong center field defense. He’s become the player prospect experts believed he could be.

During his three years in pinstripes Hicks has gone from reclamation project to unproductive fourth outfielder to starting center fielder to key contributor. Ninety-nine times he batted 1-2-3-4-5 in the lineup somewhere, including batting third in his first two postseason starts before the hamstring acted up. Hicks still seems a little underappreciated to me, but that doesn’t matter. The Yankees know how good he is. Let’s review his 2018 season.

The Great Plate Discipline

Coming up through the minors Hicks was always known for his plate discipline. I mean, the tools and athleticism stood out the most, but his military style plate discipline led to a 14.4% walk rate in the minors. It was patience bordering on passivity. Sometimes Hicks let hittable pitches go by and that’s taking plate discipline too far. It’s okay to jump on that fastball over the plate early in the count, you know? The 2018 chase rate leaderboard:

Joey Votto: 17.2%
Andrew McCutchen: 17.8%
Alex Bregman: 18.1%
Mookie Betts: 18.5%
Aaron Hicks: 19.4%

Only four of the 140 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title swung at pitches out of zone at a lower rate than Hicks. Also, among the players with the 17 lowest chase rates, Hicks had the highest rate of swinging at pitches in the zone at 62.8%. He’s found the sweet spot. He’s laying off pitches out of the zone but also hunting and attacking those hittable pitches in the zone.

Here, for no good reason whatsoever, are two heat maps. On the left are Miguel Andujar’s swings. On the right are Aaron Hicks’ swings. Check out the difference:

Heh. This isn’t intended to be a knock on Andujar. He’s awesome. He swings at everything (39.3% chase rate and 70.0% in-zone swing rate) and it works for him because has that innate ability to get the fat part of the bat on the ball. Hicks’ swings are much more concentrated on pitches out over the middle of the plate. He and Andujar are very different hitters, yet they still provided the same offensive value this year (128 wRC+ and 127 wRC+). Pretty neat.

Anyway, offensively, it all starts with plate discipline for Hicks. He consistently works long at-bats and puts himself in good hitters counts, and now he’s driving the ball with more authority than ever. His 39.5% hard hit rate this year was far and away a career high. His 40.0% ground ball rate this year was also a career low. I mean:

2016: 28.9% hard contact and 45.6% grounders
2017: 30.8% hard contact and 44.1% grounders
2018: 39.5% hard contact and 40.0% grounders

A good trend, that is. Those career high 27 home runs — Hicks’ previous career high was 15 homers last year — weren’t a fluke. Hicks hit the ball hard and he hit the ball in the air more than ever before, and that put him in position to not only sock long dingers, but also take advantage of the short porch.

The Possibly Good, Possible Mediocre Defense

To the eye test, Hicks is a very good defensive center fielder in my opinion. It seems like he glides to balls in the gaps. There have definitely been some issues on balls hit right over his head, but everyone seems to have trouble with those, so I can’t crush Hicks for it. Add in his arm and, to me, Hicks is real good in center field.

The numbers say otherwise. Defensive Runs Saved say Hicks went from +12 runs in 440.2 innings in center field last year to … -3 runs in 1,138.1 innings in center this year? Really? Ultimate Zone Rating says he went from +5.0 to -0.2. UZR puts it all on his range too. The UZR breakdown say Hicks’ arm and ability to avoid errors held steady from 2017 to 2018. But his range component went from +4.4 last year to -0.8 this year.

Among the many Statcast tools that exists but is hard to find is directional outs above average. It tells us how good an outfielder is at making plays in each direction, meaning going to his left, going to his right, coming in on the ball, going back, etc. Here is Hicks in 2017 and 2018:

Just to be clear, the center fielder is the dot in the middle. The bottom pie slice is coming in on the ball and the top pie slice is going back. Left and right is going to the left and right. The only difference between 2017 Hicks and 2018 Hicks is going to his right (left field). He was a run better than average going to his right last year and multiple runs below average going to his right this year. Hmmm.

I’m not really sure what’s going on here. Perhaps it’s nothing more than sample size noise since defensive stats usually need a few seasons worth of data to become reliable? Or maybe it had to do with positioning and the way the Yankees shaded Hicks in center? Or maybe he lost a step — the hamstring injuries may explain that — but only when going to his right? I dunno.

Whatever it is, the numbers say Hicks went from comfortably above average in the field last year to about average if not a touch below this year. He turned 29 earlier this month, so between his age and overall ability, I’m not convinced the defensive decline is permanent. It might be, for sure. But defensive stats can fluctuate year-to-year the same way batting average can, and I’d bet on the defensive numbers liking Hicks more in 2019 than they did in 2018.

Aaron’s Cool Baseball Things

In addition to being a strong two-way player who switch-hits and has power and patience from both sides of the plate, Hicks did some very fun baseball things this year. Much more than any other Yankee, I think. Let’s review them chronologically.

April 13th vs. Tigers: In his third game of the season — remember, he missed some time early with an intercostal injury — Hicks managed to hit both an inside-the-park home run and an outside-the-park home run. They were his first two homers of the season. Check it out:

Hicks hit the Yankees’ first inside-the-park home run since Curtis Granderson in 2011 and he’s the first Yankee with an inside-the-park/outside-the-park two-homer game since Hank Bauer in 1956. He was the first player with an inside-the-park/outside-the-park two-homer game since Nick Castellanos, who, coincidentally enough, did it against the Yankees last year.

Because one inside-the-park home run wasn’t enough, Hicks hit another one on May 19th against the Royals. He’s the first Yankee with multiple inside-the-park homers in a single season since Mickey Mantle had three in 1953.

July 1st vs. Red Sox: On the morning of July 1st the Yankees were one game up on the Red Sox in the AL East. That night they clobbered David Price for eight runs and five home runs in 3.1 innings. They hit six home runs in the game overall. Hicksie had three of them.

Hicks went deep from both sides of the plate and hit the first home run the other way, the second to dead center, and the third to the pull field. Both sides of the plate and to all fields. Hicks also became the first Yankee with a three-homer game since Alex Rodriguez in 2015 and the third Yankee with a three-homer game against the Red Sox, joining Lou Gehrig (1927) and Mark Teixeira (2010). Now that is pretty cool.

July 26th vs. Royals: An otherwise nondescript win over the Royals had a very exciting ending. Hicks threw Alex Gordon out at the plate to the end game for a walk-off outfield assist. Check it out:

No, the situation was not dire (the Yankees were up by five), and yes, the Royals made it easy (Gordon ran through the stop sign), but still, you’ve got to execute the throw, and Hicks did. Besides, since when does throwing someone out at the plate need to be difficult or dramatic to be fun? What a neat way to end a ballgame.

September 22nd vs. Orioles: The Yankees stumbled through much of the second half this year, and while they were never really in danger of losing a postseason spot, homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game did get a little dicey at times. The Yankees officially clinched a postseason spot on September 22nd and they did it in one of the coolest ways possible. Hicks walked it off in the 11th inning. To the action footage:

As best I can tell, that was the first time the Yankees clinched a postseason spot on a walk-off hit since Alfonso Soriano’s first career big league hit was an AL East clinching walk-off homer in 1999. Either way, that’s still pretty awesome. A walk-off hit to punch your ticket to the postseason is as fun as it gets.

What’s Next?

The 2019 season will be an important one for Hicks, personally. It’s his final year of team control (projected $6.2M salary) and another strong season sets him up for a considerable free agent payday. Dexter Fowler (five years, $82.5M) and Lorenzo Cain (five years, $80M) are the contract benchmarks here, and, when he hits free agency, Hicks will be one year younger than Fowler and two years younger than Cain at the time of their free agencies.

It’s unclear whether the Yankees will pursue a long-term extension with Hicks this offseason — doing so would raise his luxury tax hit considerably next year and who knows what the team’s plans are financially — but it sure seems like something that should happen. Switch-hitting center fielders with power and patience and good defense aren’t easy to find, and it’s not like the Yankees have a center field replacement in the pipeline. (Estevan Florial is still a few years away.)

Extension or no extension, I have a hard time believing the Yankees would trade Hicks this winter, so he’s all but assured of starting next season in pinstripes. And, with Didi Gregorius out indefinitely, there’s a pretty good chance Hicks will be the Opening Day No. 3 hitter to split up the two big righties in Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. The Yankees gambled on Hicksie’s tools and upside three years ago and have been rewarded handsomely.

The Perfectly Cromulent Backup Catcher [2018 Season Review]

October 31, 2018 by Steven Tydings

A backup catcher in New York has the popularity of a backup quarterback, particularly in the age of Gary Sanchez. Despite Austin Romine being one of the worst players in all of baseball in 2017, fans and columnists still pined for him to start games over Sanchez. All over a perceived ability to block balls in the dirt better, though Romine allowed a wild pitch in his one playoff start.

But 2018 was different in that Romine wasn’t a complete negative. For the first time in his career, he produced positive WAR and was near league average with his bat while making his most plate appearances. Perhaps it was a fluke, but for one season, the 29-year-old catcher was a perfectly fine backup. Nothing flashy, nothing awful.

Starting Strong

In April 2017, Romine batted .314/.351/.471 with two home runs and a 115 wRC+. It was easily the best month of his career and made some think he deserved more starts. Those people were wrong. He had a -39 wRC+ (Negative, not a typo) that May and was well below average the rest of the year with no more dingers.

A year later and Romine was OK in April. He drew four walks to buoy his batting line while also producing three hits, including a tying single, against the Orioles on April 8.

May was a different story. In eight starts, he topped April 2017 with a dynamic month at the plate. He hit in each game and had an 11-game hitting streak from April 30 to June 4. He hit home runs in three out of four games and it wasn’t all cheapies! His first homer of the year finished off a blowout win over the Royals and was to deep left-center in Kansas City.

Before Sanchez went on the disabled list on June 25, Romine was actually one of the Yankees’ better hitters. He was hitting .305/.370/.524 and had 10 extra-base hits to his name in just 92 plate appearances.

Filling In

For over two months, Romine became the Yankees’ primary catcher with Sanchez sidelined with hamstring issues. With Kyle Higashioka playing occasionally, Romine was tasked with the day-to-day work and stepped into a bigger role than he’s ever filled, dating back to his rookie season in 2013.

It’d be a lie to say he held his own. The 29-year-old backstop wasn’t nearly as good as he was earlier in the season and he went back to being a hole in the lineup more often than not. Teams ran on him with reckless abandon and were successful at a high rate. That being said, his July was his second-best month of the year, posting league-average marks and a .213 ISO before a weak August.

While Sanchez was out, Romine did give the Yankees a few memorable moments, the biggest being his Little League homer to beat the Indians just before the All Star break. It was a well-hit double to the gap. Then chaos ensued.

Romine homered three times in August, but he struck out in more than 30 percent of his plate appearances while losing 47 points off his OPS.

Poor Ending to a Good Season

After Sanchez came back, Romine played in just seven games with just six starts. He didn’t play for 10 days at one point. He had just three hits over 22 at-bats and grounded into as many double plays as he scored runs. It was his worst month at the plate, but that has a lot to the infrequent playing time. Even while playing his MLB career as a backup, Romine still had to adjust from everyday starts to very little playing time in a short period.

For the season, Romine hit .244/.295/.417 (91 wRC+) with 10 homers, 12 doubles and 42 RBI, all of which were career-bests. He produced 1.4 bWAR and 0.8 fWAR. He tied for the fifth-highest wRC+ for a secondary catcher.

On the defensive end, Romine was good. I can’t tell you how well he calls a game, but everyone involved with the Yankees raves about his talent there. Baseball Prospectus rated him as an above-average framer with 4.2 Framing Runs. After allowing 28 wild pitches and four passed balls in 2017, he gave up 17 WPs and 5 PBs. He even produced 2.2 Blocking Runs after being negative in that category before 2018. Overall, BP had him with 6.8 Fielding Runs Above Average.

Where Romine often receives criticism is for his poor throwing arm. After throwing out just three of 29 runners last year, he approached league average, nailing 16 of 61 attempted runners. That’s 26 percent while the league caught 28 percent. Not great, but certainly manageable.

The Odd Life of Austin Romine

I just want to get to some of the weird moments in Romine’s season outside of the Little League homer. It was a low-key peculiar season for the Yankees’ backstop and we shouldn’t forget the moments that made it so.

First up, he made one playoff appearance … and it was on the mound. We’d all like to forget ALDS Game 3, but Romine’s appearance was as memorable as they get. Brock Holt homered off him for the cycle, but he wasn’t the worst pitcher the Yankees threw out there that night. He hit 90 mph!

Beyond the mound, Romine was run over at the plate by Caleb Joseph on Aug. 1 and it was just a wonderful mess. Here’s the video … and here’s the aftermath.

And finally, there’s his brother punching him during the middle of a live baseball game. What a sport!

What’s Next?

Romine will be arbitration-eligible for the third and final time in 2019 after turning 30 on Nov. 22. MLB Trade Rumors projects him to receive $2.0 million after earning $1.1 million last season. He’ll be a free agent after the year.

Don’t expect Romine to replicate his 2018 season next year. His tail-off in the second half portends a fall to Earth, though he seemed to legitimately improve at turning on pitches and showing off some power last year. That 10-homer power might just stick.

He also shouldn’t get nearly the playing time he had last year. Sanchez is the starting catcher, plain and simple, and there’s no way he should be as bad in 2019. If he is, then the Yankees need to acquire a catcher instead of turning to Romine. However, Romine can take over in a pinch when Sanchez is inevitably banged up.

A Half-Season of Greatness and a Half-Season of Knee Trouble for the Closer [2018 Season Review]

October 30, 2018 by Mike

Aroldis Chapman’s first full season as a Yankee was up and down. Early season shoulder trouble and inconsistent performance meant Chapman finished with a 3.22 ERA (2.56 FIP) in 50.1 innings last year — those were his highest marks since 2011 — before he rebounded late and pitched well in October. The strong finish gave everyone hope we’d see vintage Chapman in 2018.

And vintage Chapman we did see, at least in the first half, before his left knee injury became too much to bear. In 51.1 innings this year Chapman posted a 2.45 ERA (2.09 FIP) with a 43.9% strikeout rate, the second highest mark of his career. The strikeout rate leaderboard (min. 50 innings):

Josh Hader: 46.7%
Edwin Diaz: 44.3%
Aroldis Chapman: 43.9%
Dellin Betances: 42.3%
Corey Knebel: 39.5%

Chapman was selected to his fifth career All-Star Game this year and he did finish strong in late September and the postseason, though the knee injury sabotaged his second half. Even when he was deemed healthy enough to pitch following the All-Star break, Chapman struggled. The injury was a real bummer. Time to dig into his season.

The Dominant First Half

Late last season Chapman attributed his strong finish and postseason to a grip change. He reportedly switched from his usual fastball grip, which was more like a cutter grip, to a true four-seam grip. The velocity and life returned, and Chapman was better able to locate the pitch as well. That success carried over into this season.

Chapman went 26-for-27 in save chances in the first half — the Yankees came back to win following the lone blown save too — and was just overwhelming. Six runs and 33 baserunners in 40 innings with 68 strikeouts. He held opponents to a .126/.234/.207 batting line and never once in 41 first half appearances did Chapman allow more than one run.

For me, the most memorable moment of Chapman’s season came on May 3rd, in the final game of the four-game series in Houston. The Yankees scored three in the top of the ninth to take a 6-5 lead, then, with the tying run on second and the go-ahead run at first, Chapman blew Jose Altuve away on three pitches to end the game. Look at this at-bat:

Goodness. All-Star closer and the hardest throwing pitcher in baseball history against the reigning AL MVP with the game on the line? That’s as good as it gets right there, and Chapman completely overpowered Altuve. That game was in the middle of a stretch in which Chapman struck out 15 of 25 batters faced across six appearances.

The Yankees signed Chapman to what is still the largest reliever contract in baseball history two offseasons ago because they wanted dominance in the ninth inning, and although they didn’t really get it last year, Chapman was more than up to the task in the first half this season. He was excellent and he was rightfully selected to the All-Star Game, though he had to sit out the game because of …

The Lingering Knee Injury

We first got wind of Chapman’s left knee issue in June. He threw a pitch during his June 8th save against the Mets, hobbled around a little bit, and trainer Steve Donohue came out to check on him. Chapman remained in the game and finished things off, then revealed he’d been pitching through left knee tendinitis for several weeks.

“I don’t think it’s that much of a concern. It’s been something he has been dealing with,” said Aaron Boone following the game. “Every now and then when he is running around, backing up, we get a lump in our throat, but it hasn’t been something that has affected him at all throwing and it hasn’t been something he has said is an issue for him other than staying on top of it and getting the proper treatment. I feel he is good to go moving forward. Any time any of our players have an issue, it’s a concern, but I don’t think it’s anything that’s affecting his pitching right now.”

Chapman continued to receive treatment and continued to pitch — he got another save the very next night — and there were no indications the knee was giving him trouble. In 14 appearances between that June 8th outing and the All-Star break, Chapman allowed four hits and five walks in 13.1 innings. He struck out 22. It would’ve been impossible to tell he was pitching hurt had he not limped a bit following a pitch during that June 8th game.

It wasn’t until Chapman’s first appearance following the All-Star break that something was clearly wrong. He faced five batters on July 21st and went walk, single, walk, walk, hit-by-pitch. Nineteen pitches, three strikes. Chapman came in with a 7-3 lead and left with a 7-5 lead and the bases loaded and no outs. Chasen Shreve came in and managed to close out the game. Felt like a miracle.

In his first nine appearances after the All-Star break Chapman walked eleven batters in seven innings, and the Yankees gave him as much rest as possible. Know how late-inning relievers will sometimes get into a game simply because they need work? Not Chapman in late-July and August. At one point he made only five appearances in 21 days, and three times he pitched with six days rest.

On August 21st in Miami, Chapman entered with a one-run lead — it was his first appearance in six days — and had to exit the game after six pitches. The knee had become too painful. Chapman went for an MRI the next day and headed to the disabled list with what the Yankees called knee tendinitis.

“I felt that it was a good decision to stop pitching at that time. The (pain) intensity was higher and you kind of ask yourself, ‘What’s really going on?’ So that’s why I called the trainers, because I felt that it was a good idea to stop pitching,” Chapman said. “We don’t have a set time (to return). Right now, I’ve got to see how it goes and kind of get a better idea as the following days go by. That’s what you hope for, that it’s only ten days and you take this time to recuperate and get back to being 100%. That’s definitely what you hope for.”

Chapman spent about a month on the disabled list. He exited the Marlins game on August 21st and his first game back was September 20th. That first outing was a disaster (three runs and two outs), but Chapman was nails the next four times out (3.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 K) as the Yankees eased him back into action as a middle reliever. He resumed ninth inning duties in the postseason and closed out the Wild Card Game and ALCS Game Two wins, and also threw a scoreless inning in the ALCS Game Four loss. The knee was no longer an issue.

Emphasizing The Slider

For what I am sure is several reasons rather than one big reason, Chapman’s velocity was down in 2018. His heater averaged 99.3 mph this season, which is obviously excellent, but is down considerably from 100.2 mph last year and 101.1 mph the year before. The 104s and 105s were replaced with 100s and 101s. Chapman’s average velocity the last five years:

Ten times in his final 20 regular season appearances Chapman’s fastball averaged under 98 mph. He did that 16 times total in 298 appearances from 2013-17. Yeah. Chapman turns 31 in February and has a lot of innings on his arm, and Father Time remains undefeated. Every pitcher loses velocity with age, especially once they hit 30, and Chapman is no different.

In this case though, there’s also an injury to consider. Chapman’s injury was to his left knee, his push off knee, and he may not have been able to push off properly and generate his trademark velocity. Or maybe he held back some in an effort to prevent further pain or damage to the knee. That’s something that can happen subconsciously. When you’re hurting, it’s only human nature to protect the injury.

Whatever the reason, Chapman lost some velocity this season, and sometimes it was very noticeable. He compensated for the velocity loss by throwing more sliders, in some cases many more. Chapman even had three outings in which he threw more sliders than changeups. That never used to happen. The slider was featured more this season than ever before, and you know what? It worked very well. Some slider numbers:

	% Thrown	Avg. Velocity	Whiffs-per-Swing	GB%
2015	16.5%	87.6 mph	51.2%	27.8%
2016	15.3%	88.7 mph	51.9%	42.1%
2017	19.8%	87.8 mph	44.3%	42.9%
2018	25.5%	86.7 mph	60.2%	57.1%

Slider usage is up — the fact Chapman increased his slider usage last year and again this year leads me to believe this has been in the works a while rather than be a spur of the moment thing in response to the knee and velocity loss — and wow look at those results. This season the MLB averages were 35.5% whiffs-per-swing and 43.9% grounders for sliders. Chapman was well above both marks.

It makes sense though, right? Chapman has a pretty good slider and, even with his diminished velocity this year, the hitter still has to respect the 100+ mph heater. When hitters are gearing up for a triple-digit fastball and get a mid-to-upper-80s slider like this …

… dropped on them, well, it can lead to swings like that. The slider went from show-me pitch in the past to a legitimate weapon for Chapman this season. He threw it more in all situations. Behind in the count, ahead in the count, with two strikes to righties and lefties, whatever. The Yankees and Chapman changed the scouting report a bit this season and that slider allowed him to remain (very) effective even while hobbled and with something less than his peak velocity.

The thought that Aroldis Chapman, the guy who most stands out for his velocity in this era of big velocity, is losing velocity is kinda scary! At 102-105 mph, he’s untouchable. At 97-98 mph, he’s a bit more human. What happens in a year or two when he might be 95-97 mph? Eek. The fact Chapman successfully emphasized his slider this year and turned it into a weapon is encouraging to me. He’s made an adjustment and found a way to get outs (found a way to still dominate, really) even without being able to throw 105 mph by everyone. I was glad to see it.

What’s Next?

Next season is the third year on Chapman’s five-year contract and it’s a big one, because he can opt out next offseason. He’d walk away from two years and $34.4M. It is way, way, way too early to say whether Chapman will opt out. If the knee and everything else hold up next year and he dominates, my guess is he’d opt-out, even with the velocity loss. Chapman could wind up with more guaranteed money, even if he takes a pay cut annually.

The opt-out isn’t really worth worrying about right now. It’s so far away and so much can happen between now and then. Brian Cashman recently told Brendan Kuty that an offseason of rest will “clean up” whatever’s wrong with Chapman’s knee, which is good, because avoiding surgery is always preferred. With a full no-trade clause and the Yankees valuing a deep bullpen, there is no reason to believe Chapman will be anything other than the team’s closer going into next season.

The Most Disappointing Player in MLB [2018 Season Review]

October 29, 2018 by Mike

Coming into the 2018 season, nowhere else on the field did I think the Yankees would have a bigger advantage over their opponents than at catcher. The only catcher who I was comfortable assuming would outproduce Gary Sanchez this season was Buster Posey, and even that was a little up in the air.

The Yankees called Sanchez up for good on August 2nd, 2016, following their trade deadline purge. Here’s where Gary ranked among all catchers from that date through the end of the 2017 regular season (min. 400 plate appearances for rate stats):

AVG: .283 (sixth)
OBP: .357 (fourth)
SLG: .561 (first by 48 points)
wRC+: 140 (first by 13 points)
HR: 41 (first by seven)
XBH: 66 (tied for first)

There was a weird little narrative floating around Spring Training that said, despite all their high quality players, Sanchez was the Yankees’ best hitter. I never really bought into it (folks, Aaron Judge is really freakin’ good) but it wasn’t the craziest thing in the world, I don’t think. Now? Now it sounds silly.

Sanchez’s disaster 2018 season ended with a .186/.291/.406 (89 wRC+) batting line and 18 home runs in 374 plate appearances around a pair of groin-related stints on the disabled list. There have been 1,005 instances of a player batting 300 times in a single season for the Yankees. Gary’s .186 AVG is second lowest to someone named Red Kleinow (.168 in 1908).

I guess the good news is Sanchez did hit two homers in ALDS Game Two, which helped the Yankees even the series at a game apiece. That’s more than anyone other than Judge did in the series.

Defensively, Sanchez again led the league in passed balls, this time committing 18 in 653 innings. Last year it was 16 in 881 innings. He struggled on both sides of the ball and was, hands down, the most disappointing Yankee in 2018. In fact, I’d call him the most disappointing player in baseball this year. Who else flopped so greatly after going into 2018 with such high expectations? I can’t think of anyone.

That the Yankees won 100 games despite Sanchez’s awfulness is a testament to their talent and depth and in no way absolves Gary. Who knows where the Yankees would’ve wound up had Sanchez played up to expectations? Let’s dig into Gary’s disaster season.

Power, But Little Else

I know everyone wants to talk about the defense and passed balls, but we’ll get to that in a moment. We have to start with the offense because Gary will forever be a bat first player, and this season he was terrible with the bat. You saw the overall batting line: .186/.291/.406 (89 wRC+) in nearly 400 plate appearances. The 18 homers salvaged things a bit — even with all the missed time, Sanchez still had the fifth most homers among catchers — but the AVG and OBP? Yuck.

Gary started the season slowly, going 2-for-36 (.056) with zero walks in his first nine games. He went on a six-week tear after that, hitting .292/.396/.681 (185 wRC+) with eleven home runs in 31 games from April 11st through May 21st. That was the Gary Sanchez everyone was expecting. After that though? Sanchez cratered and hit .151/.264/.285 (53 wRC+) in his final 49 games around the groin injuries. Gary’s season in graph form:

Throughout the season I saw two common explanations bandied about for Sanchez’s struggles: He chased out of the zone too much and he got too pull happy. Possible! Except Sanchez posted the lowest chase rate (33.1%) and lowest pull rate (51.1%) in his relatively brief big league career. That doesn’t mean Sanchez didn’t chase too often or get too pull happy at times — both those rates are above the league average (30.4% and 40.3%) — it just means this wasn’t as big a problem as it may have seemed.

One thing Gary continued to do this year, even while struggling, is hit the ball hard. Very hard. His 41.6% hard hit rate and 90.3 mph average exit velocity were both well above the 34.1% and 87.3 mph league averages, respectively. Sanchez managed a 90.3 mph average exit velocity and a .343 xwOBA. Seventy players posted an average exit velocity north of 90 mph this year while putting at least 200 balls in play. The bottom of the leaderboard:

66. D.J. LeMahieu: .352 xwOBA
67. Melky Cabrera: .352 xwOBA
68. Ian Desmond: .346 xwOBA
69. Gary Sanchez: .343 xwOBA
70. Russell Martin: .317 xwOBA

Expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, is based on exit velocity and launch angle and things like that. It essentially tells us what a player would be expected to produce based on the quality of his contact. Sanchez hit the ball quite hard this year, yet his expected production was relatively low. Statcast has all sorts of neat batted ball breakdowns that help explain why.

	Weak	Topped	Under	Flare	Solid	Barrel
2017 Sanchez	2.5%	31.0%	21.4%	26.5%	6.8%	11.8%
2018 Sanchez	2.6%	34.2%	26.8%	15.6%	6.9%	13.9%
MLB AVG	4.8%	34.4%	24.3%	24.9%	5.5%	6.1%

Here’s the full definition of a barrel. The short version: It’s the best possible contact. High exit velocity at an ideal launch angle. Sanchez, even this year, squares balls up at an extraordinarily high rate. More than double the league average, in fact. The 18 home runs and overall power production tell us Gary still made a lot of loud contact this year. When he squared a pitch up, he absolutely crushed it.

The biggest difference between 2017 Sanchez and 2018 Sanchez is that a lot of flares — those are balls that are not necessarily well struck, but do fall in for hits — were replaced by pitches Sanchez either topped or got under. You can hit a ball hard and still hit a grounder. A topped ball is a weak grounder. And getting under a pitch is, well, getting under a pitch. A pop-up or a routine fly ball. Replacing flares with topped pitches and getting under the ball is how you go from a .304 BABIP in 2017 to a .197 BABIP* in 2018 like Sanchez.

* Reliable stat keeping goes back far enough that there are 21,946 player seasons of at 300 plate appearances on record. Sanchez’s .197 BABIP is 33rd lowest among those 21,946 seasons. Insane.

The two disabled list stints probably didn’t help matters — including minor league rehab, Sanchez had 46 plate appearances from June 24th through August 31st — but my theory is Gary launch angled himself out of whack at the plate. I think he sold out for power and I think it got worse as the season went on. There were times it looked like Sanchez was trying to hit a five-run home run to make up for his entire season in one at-bat. I think he sold out for power, threw himself into a mechanical funk, then started pressing when he wasn’t having the season we all expected, and that made it all worse.

A few pieces of good news. One, Sanchez was still able to hit the ball hard. I’d be much more worried going forward if he wasn’t hitting the ball hard. The ability to drive the ball like few others is still in there. We saw it in the postseason. Two, Sanchez’s strikeout rate didn’t explode this year. He finished the year with a 25.1% strikeout rate, which is higher than last year (22.9%) but not outrageously so. A strikeout rate nearing or above 30% would’ve been worrisome.

And three, Sanchez really upped his walk rate this year. His 12.3% walk rate is far higher than last year’s 7.6% walk rate. Gary drew 40 walks (one intentional) in 525 plate appearances last year. He drew 46 walks (zero intentional) in 374 plate appearances this year. I don’t think there’s a physical deficiency here. It’s not like Sanchez lost strength. The adjustment this offseason figures to be more mechanical and more about approach.

“They were pitching me very tough throughout the whole season. They were executing very good pitches that were out of the strike zone, but I was swinging at them,” said Sanchez to Randy Miller a few weeks ago. “That’s one of the things that I want to work on in the offseason. Command the strike zone better. Be a more selective hitter.”

The Passed Ball Hysteria

I hate passed balls and wild pitches. I watch an embarrassing amount of baseball and it seems to me the official scorer is guessing half the time. I’ve seen pitches skip through the catcher’s legs be called wild pitches and pitches in the other batter’s box be called a passed ball. I am for combining passed balls and wild pitches into one “passed pitches” stat that gets assigned to both the pitcher and catcher. Takes all the guesswork out of official scoring. /end rant

Anyway, Sanchez allowed 18 passed balls (63 passed pitches) in 653 innings this year after allowing 16 passed balls (69 passed pitches) in 881 innings last year. He went from one passed pitch every 12.8 innings to one every 10.4 innings. That’s one extra passed pitch every four games or so. Sanchez’s blocking issues came to a head one night in Oakland in early September, when four passed pitches (two passed balls and two wild pitches, officially) got by him in the first inning.

“I had a chance to stop all of them. I just didn’t do it,” Sanchez said after the game. “(Luis Severino and I) definitely had some trouble getting on the same page in the first inning. I would say there were some pitches there that I should have done a better job blocking or protecting them from going to the back.”

It’s easy to make excuses for Sanchez’s poor blocking. For starters, the Yankees have a pitching staff that isn’t easy to catch. The Yankees had the highest average fastball velocity (94.9 mph) and third highest average breaking ball spin rate (2,517 rpm) in baseball this year. That’s a lot of high-octane heaters and a lot of high-spinning breakers. Catching this pitching staff is not easy.

Secondly, MLB limited mound visits this season and that means fewer conversations — remember how often Sanchez visited the mound last year? — and thus greater potential for cross-ups. We saw a lot of them this year with Gary behind the plate. And third, pretty much every team is paranoid about sign-stealing this days and uses multiple signs with no one on. That also increases the chances of a cross-up and a ball getting by the catcher. I mean, look at the postseason. There seemed to be two or three balls getting by the catcher every game.

All of that should be considered when evaluating Sanchez’s blocking. Now, that all said, he is still really bad at it. People are quick to call Gary lazy the same way they were quick to call Robinson Cano lazy (gee, wonder what the connection is there) but, to me, this is a technique problem more than anything. For example, I have no idea what Sanchez is doing with his right leg here:

He does that all the time. Gary rarely drops to both knees to block pitches in the dirt, and instead leaves his five-hole wide open, and balls skips through. That has to be corrected. It won’t solve all of Sanchez’s passed ball issues — we’ve seen plenty of catchable pitches inexcusably clank off his glove — but it’ll help cut down on them, undoubtedly. The Yankees have three former catchers on the coaching staff (bench coach Josh Bard, catching coach Jason Brown, and assistant hitting coach P.J. Pilittere) and fixing that leg and improving Sanchez’s technique has to be a priority.

I suppose the good news is that, if you’re going to be (very) bad at something defensively as a catcher, blocking pitches a “good” thing to be bad at. Baseball Prospectus has detailed catcher defense stats and the best blocker (Tucker Barnhart) finished at +3.6 runs saved in 2018. The worst (Omar Narvaez) was at -4.6 runs. In one individual game, that extra 90 feet can be huge. Over the course of the season, blocking is not he most impactful thing in the game.

One-hundred-and-fifteen players caught in the big leagues this year, not counting Joe Mauer’s farewell pitch. Here’s where Sanchez ranks among those 115 catchers in BP’s various catcher defense metrics:

Framing: +3.3 runs (23rd)
Throwing: +0.2 runs (12th)
Blocking: -4.3 runs runs (114th)
Total Fielding: -0.9 runs (79th — this is everything above plus plays on pop-ups and grounders)

Kinda weird the throwing runs total is so low, isn’t it? James McCann led the league at +1.1 and Robinson Chirinos was last at -0.8. Huh. Well, whatever. (For what it’s worth, FanGraphs has Sanchez eighth with +2 throwing runs.)

These are counting stats, so Sanchez’s framing and throwing is hurt by the missed time while his blocking would’ve surely ranked last in the league had he played more. Point is, Sanchez is quite good at everything behind the plate except blocking. He frames well and he throws well, and the Yankees believe he calls a good game.

“I think he’s our best game-caller,” said Brian Cashman to Randy Miller a few weeks ago. “He shuts down the opposing team’s running game. And obviously, he’s a threat at the plate every pitch. So I think he’s by far our best option behind the plate for us.”

Gary stinks at blocking, and that’s kinda important, but it’s wrong to act like he offers nothing back there. He very clearly does. The throwing and framing are quite valuable. If you’re a believer in “pitcher performance with this specific catcher” stats, the pitching staff performed better with Sanchez (3.50 ERA and 93 OPS+) than either Austin Romine (4.06 and 104) or Kyle Higashioka (3.80 and 113) behind the plate this year. The Yankees have to help Gary improve his technique though. Whatever that is he’s doing with his right leg is costing him dearly.

What’s Next?

Not surprisingly, teams are already calling about Sanchez. They see an opportunity to buy low on a 25-year-old catcher with four years of team control who was the best hitter at the position a year ago. If Sanchez were on another team, we’d all want the Yankees to go out and get him. Catcher is an extremely hard position to fill and few backstops in the game offer Gary’s long-term potential.

A year ago at this time Sanchez looked to be on the cusp of superstardom. Now he’s more of a reclamation project. Sanchez has to get right at the plate, first and foremost. There are some approach and (likely) mechanical issues that need to be fixing. That’s most important. Gary also has to continue working on his blocking. That’s the missing piece defensively. An offseason trade is so very unlikely, meaning Sanchez will report to Tampa for Spring Training in a few weeks as the No. 1 catcher, and, after the season he just had, he’ll be under the microscope more than ever before.