Aroldis Chapman Archives - River Avenue Blues

Yankeemetrics: Nightmare on River Ave. (April 1-3)

April 4, 2019 by Katie Sharp

April 1: Three is justenough
Monday started out with the worst possible Not-April-Fools-Joke — Miguel Andujar and Giancarlo Stanton landing on the Injured List — but ended on a much better note with the Yankees gutting through a 3-1 win over the Tigers.

Milestone alert! This was the team’s 500th regular season win at the current Yankee Stadium. Those 500 wins are 13 more than any other team has at their home ballpark since 2009.

Gary Sanchez gave the Yankees an early lead with a solo homer in a the second inning, a monster blast that went 417 feet to straightaway center. It was his second longball in as many games, the first time he’s gone deep in back to back games since August 17-18, 2017. That’s right — he didn’t homer in consecutive games at all last year.

Brett Gardner added an insurance run in the fifth with a solo shot to right-center. The Yankees are now 26-4 since 2017 (including playoffs) when Gardy goes yardy. Gardner still has never hit a true opposite-field home run in his career; the closest he came was a blast over the wall slightly to the left of dead-center at Tropicana Field on May 11, 2015.

Domingo German was the star, pitching the definition of an “effectively wild” game with seven strikeouts, five walks, one hit and one run (unearned) allowed in five innings. Coupled with his brilliant six-inning, no-hit start last May, German delivered this #FunFact: He became the first pitcher in Yankees history with multiple starts of at least five innings and one or fewer hits allowed within his first 30 career MLB games.

Terrific Tanaka, Terrible Offense
The Yankees trotted out a lineup that included three players who were supposed to be in Scranton this week, and the result was hardly a shocker — a 3-1 loss that included a pathetic offense and little support for another brilliant outing by Masahiro Tanaka.

Still, the Yankees had a chance to win, entering the ninth with the game knotted at one, because of the excellence of Tanaka. He scattered eight hits, struck out seven with no walks, and wiggled out of a few tough jams in coughing up just one run over 6 2/3 innings. Combined with his awesome Opening Day start, Tanaka earned our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series award:

He is the second Yankees pitcher ever to begin the season throwing back-to-back starts allowing no more than one earned run with five-plus strikeouts and no walks in each game (the other guy was Kevin Brown in 2004).

Tanaka filled up the strike zone, throwing 63 of his 87 pitches (72%) for strikes, and his command was stellar in netting 15 called strikes, freezing several Tigers on pitches in the middle of the plate:

Tanaka’s effort was wasted by the Yankees cold bats and a ninth inning implosion by Aroldis Chapman. While the fireballer’s velocity was up from his first two appearances of the season, it didn’t matter as his command was off and he got torched for two runs and three hits by the Tigers. We’ve seen Chapman struggle at times in pinstripes — but not to this extent.

The last time he allowed at least two runs and three hits and took the loss in a game was Sept. 7, 2012 in his first season as a closer with the Reds.

Breezy day in the Bronx
The Yankees six-game season-opening homestand ended in the most miserable fashion, as they dropped the rubber game of the series to the Tigers, 2-1, and were the victims of a couple awful franchise records in doing so.

They struck out 18 times, the most ever in a nine-inning game by any Yankees team. They now have 65 strikeouts for the season, the highest total through six games in franchise history. Thirteen of those punchouts were by Tigers starter Matthew Boyd, who also limited them to just one run in 6 1/3 innings. Boyd is the first left-hander to strike out at least 13 Yankees and allow no more than one run in a regular-season game at Yankee Stadium (old or new). The only southpaw pitcher to do that in a playoff game in the Bronx was Cliff Lee in Game 3 of the 2010 ALCS.

The one of the few reasons for optimism in the Yankees disastrous 2-4 record has been their starting pitching, which has a 2.32 ERA and has given up one earned run or fewer five times. Only two other Yankee pitching staffs have begun the season with their starters allowing no more than one earned run in five of the first six games — it also happened last year and in 2002.

Overall, they’ve allowed 20 runs, the 33rd time in franchise history they’ve given up 20 or fewer runs in the first six games; twice before they also were below .500 thru six games: 1964 and 1977. The 1964 team went on win the AL pennant and lose in the World Series while the 1977 team was World Series champs.

Some more perspective (don’t jump off the cliff yet?) … This is the sixth time in the Wild Card era that the Yankees have started 2-4 or worse. The results of the previous five seasons it happened:

Missed Playoffs – 1 (2013)
Made Playoffs – 4 (2017, 2015, 2006, 1998)
Won Division – 2 (2006, 1998)
Won World Series – 1 (1998)

Aroldis Chapman’s reduced velocity isn’t something to worry about just yet

April 2, 2019 by Mike

The Yankees beat the Tigers last night and the ninth inning was over in the blink of an eye. Aroldis Chapman needed only seven pitches to get a pop-up to first, a grounder to second, and a strikeout to nail down his first save of the new season. The only number that seemed to matter: 97.0 mph. That was Chapman’s average fastball for the night.

“Obviously, he was really efficient,” Aaron Boone said to Dan Martin following the game. “It looked like there was good life on his fastball. I wasn’t overly concerned with it (but) it was good to see him come in and start to push it up a little bit and look like his stuff was crisp.”

Chapman’s trademark velocity was noticeably down in Spring Training, sitting mostly 94-95 mph on the television radar gun. He averaged 95.0 mph in his first regular season appearance last Thursday and topped out at 97.8 mph. In a vacuum, that’s very good velocity. For Chapman, it’s definitely down.

“It’s something we’ll keep an eye on. We’ll see as we get into the season and it gets warmer,” pitching coach Larry Rothschild told Dan Martin and George King over the weekend. Chapman said he’s healthy and feels great physically, which is good even though it’s hard to trust athletes when they talk about their health (they always say they’re healthy).

Chapman turned 31 in February and velocity loss is part of life for a pitcher. His average fastball velocity was lower last year than the year before, and that year was lower than the year before it. Remember those 105 mph fastballs everyone fell in love with? Chapman hasn’t thrown a pitch that hard since August 2016. That historic velocity was never going to last and, really, it’s pretty amazing it lasted as long as it did.

It’s easy (and understandable) to freak out about reduced velocity these days and there’s no doubt a 104 or 105 mph fastball is more effective than a 96 or 97 mph fastball. At 104-105 mph, Chapman is a dominator. At 96-97 mph, the outs don’t come quite as easy. The good news is we’ve already seen some improvement in his two appearances …

March 28th: 95.0 mph average and 97.8 mph max
April 1st: 97.0 mph average and 98.3 mph max (on a very cold night)

… and Chapman has shown us he can make adjustments. Last year he incorporated his slider more than ever before and that happened even before it was clear his velocity was down and staying down. He came out of the gate throwing more sliders, which tells us the plan going into the season was more sliders. It just so happened to coincide with the first significant velocity loss of his career.

While I enjoy a good velocity freakout as much as anyone (actually, I don’t), we don’t know whether Chapman’s reduced velocity is actually a problem yet. He’s only made two appearances and both went fine (admittedly against terrible teams), and his velocity ticked up the second time out. It could be that Chapman needs a few weeks to reach his maximum velocity and begin touching 100 mph again.

“What makes Aroldis so unique and so special (is) his kinetic chain is so freakish,” Boone said last week. “I think once that gets really dialed in, I think the velocity will follow. Now, is it 103s and 102s? I don’t know. I would expect him to slowly start to tick back that way.”

Right now, four games and two Chapman appearances into the new season, I consider his velocity something to watch more than something to worry about. Will he be the overwhelming dominator he was in his prime at 97-98 mph instead of 104-105 mph? No, probably not, but that doesn’t mean Chapman can’t be very effective either. He was a deserving All-Star last year despite the velocity drop.

We need more information, basically. Let’s see whether the velocity gradually increases in the coming weeks and let’s see how effective Chapman remains without the triple-digit heater. If the velocity gain we saw last night stops or even reverses, and he starts getting knocked around the park and/or walking everyone, then it’ll be time to worry. Right now, it’s still not clear whether the reduced velocity hurts him. All we know is his velocity is down. We can’t dismiss the velocity loss. We also can’t make any definitive conclusions yet either.

The important thing is health. As long as Chapman’s healthy — and he does look healthy — he has a chance to increase his velocity as the season progresses and the weather warms up, and he has a chance to make adjustments too. You can’t do either of those things when you’re hurt. Chapman’s healthy and we’ve already seen some velocity uptick. Chances are those 104s and 105s are never coming back given normal age-related velocity loss. Chapman can still have success at 97-98 mph, which is down for him and excellent for everyone else.

Update: Yankees finalize 2019 Opening Day roster

March 24, 2019 by Mike

Sunday: Tyler Wade was optioned to Triple-A Scranton earlier today, the Yankees announced, clearing the way for new pickup Mike Tauchman to make the roster. Also, Aaron Boone told Coley Harvey that Stephen Tarpley will be in the bullpen, so between that and yesterday’s news, the pitching staff is set. Boone confirmed to Bryan Hoch that the updated roster below will in fact be the Opening Day roster.

Saturday: Although the official announcement will not come until Thursday morning, the Yankees have more or less finalized their 2019 Opening Day roster. Clint Frazier was sent to minor league camp Friday, taking him out of the running for the final bench spot, and George King reports Domingo German will be the 13th pitcher on the Opening Day roster.

Based on that, here is the 25-man Opening Day roster the Yankees will take into the regular season:

CATCHERS (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

INFIELDERS (6)
3B Miguel Andujar
1B Greg Bird
IF DJ LeMahieu
2B/SS Gleyber Torres
SS Troy Tulowitzki
1B Luke Voit

OUTFIELDERS (4)
CF Brett Gardner
RF Aaron Judge
LF Giancarlo Stanton
~~UTIL Tyler Wade~~ OF Mike Tauchman

STARTERS (5)
~~RHP Luis Cessa~~ RHP Domingo German
LHP J.A. Happ
LHP James Paxton
RHP Masahiro Tanaka
LHP CC Sabathia (five-game suspension)

RELIEVERS (8)
LHP Zack Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
~~RHP Domingo German~~ RHP Luis Cessa
RHP Chad Green
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Tommy Kahnle
RHP Adam Ottavino
LHP Stephen Tarpley

The Yankees will also have seven — seven! — players open the 2019 regular season on the injured list. The seven: Dellin Betances (shoulder), Jacoby Ellsbury (hip), Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery), Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery), Aaron Hicks (back), Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery), and Luis Severino (shoulder). Sabathia (knee) will become the eighth once his suspension ends.

At this point, the only spots still maybe up for grabs are Bird’s and Tarpley’s. Bird is supposedly fine but he has not played since taking a pitch to the elbow Wednesday. Given his history, I worry this will be something that lingers and forces him to be replaced on the Opening Day roster. Tarpley could be swapped out for someone like Gio Gonzalez or Jonathan Loaisiga, but nah, he’s pretty much a lock.

The Yankees have eight more big league Spring Training roster cuts to make: Nestor Cortes, Francisco Diaz, Raynel Espinal, Estevan Florial, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Jorge Saez. Florial will miss the next few weeks as he recovers from his broken wrist. Those cuts will happen soon (duh).

An updated look at the Yankees’ projected 2019 Opening Day roster as the injuries continue to mount

March 21, 2019 by Mike

One week from today the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound that day, not Luis Severino, because Severino suffered a shoulder injury earlier this month. That has been the story of Spring Training thus far. Injury after injury after injury.

The Yankees came into Spring Training with a 25-man roster that was fairly set. The last two bullpen spots and the final bench spot were up for grabs, and even then it was kinda easy to see who would get those spots. Now? Now injuries have created a few openings, openings the Yankees are still working to address. They have a week to figure it out.

So, with Yankees far from full strength going into the regular season, let’s take an updated look at the current state of the projected Opening Day roster. At this point, some Opening Day roster spots are being awarded almost by default.

Injured List (8)

Might as well start here. We know with certainty eight players — eight! — will be unavailable at the start of the regular season due to injury. Several of these injuries were known coming into Spring Training. Others popped up in recent weeks. These eight players combined for +18.4 WAR last year:

Dellin Betances (shoulder)
Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery)
Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery)
Ben Heller (Tommy John Surgery)
Aaron Hicks (back)
Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery)
CC Sabathia (knee, heart)
Luis Severino (shoulder)

The Yankees have not yet put these players on the injured list because they can’t. The 10-day IL doesn’t open until Monday. The 60-day IL has been open for a few weeks now, but the Yankees haven’t needed a 40-man roster spot yet, so there’s no reason to 60-day IL anyone. Montgomery and Gregorius figure to be the first two to go on the 60-day IL when 40-man space is needed.

It sounds like Hicks will be back a week into the regular season. Sabathia is expected back in mid-April and Severino in early-May. Everyone else is a little up in the air at this point, though Betances isn’t expected to be out too long. Ellsbury, Heller, Gregorius, and Montgomery are longer term injuries. We won’t see them for a while.

The Roster Locks (21)

After the injured dudes, the next logical place to go is the roster locks. I count 21 players who will assuredly be on the the Opening Day roster. There are no questions about these guys:

Position Players (11): Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade
Pitchers (10): Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Masahiro Tanaka, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton

I am comfortable calling Cessa, Kahnle, and Wade roster locks at this point. Cessa and Kahnle are both out of minor league options and they came into the spring as Opening Day roster favorites, and they’ve done nothing to pitch their way off the roster. Cessa in particular has been lights out. Add in the pitching injuries and yeah, Cessa and Kahnle will be on the roster.

On more than one occasion this spring Aaron Boone has indicated Wade’s versatility gives him a leg up on a bench spot. Add in the Yankees playing him in center field as soon as it became clear Hicks would not be ready for Opening Day, and we’ve got two pretty good signs Wade has made the roster, assuming yesterday’s hip tightness truly is nothing (fingers crossed). He’s the de facto fourth outfielder until Hicks returns, and, as an added bonus, he can play the infield as well. Wade’s a lock.

The Near Lock (1)

Assuming the Yankees again go with the eight-man bullpen/three-man bench roster construction, they have one more position player spot to fill. Realistically, there are three candidates for that roster spot: Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and non-roster invitee Billy Burns. I’d rank their chances of making the Opening Day roster like so:

Greg Bird
(huge gap)
Billy Burns
(tiny gap)
Clint Frazier

Frazier has not had a good spring (.140/.220/.233) and Boone has said he needs regular at-bats after missing so much time last season. The Yankees could give him those at-bats at the big league level given the Hicks injury, but it seems unlikely given his Grapefruit League showing. I have Burns ever so slightly ahead of Frazier because I think the Yankees are more willing to let Burns sit on the bench as the fourth outfielder than Frazier. Burns on the bench with Frazier getting regular at-bats in Triple-A seem much more likely than vice versa.

Anyway, that is all moot because Bird is a damn near lock for the Opening Day roster thanks to the Hicks injury, as long as yesterday’s pitch to the elbow is nothing (again, fingers crossed). The Yankees love Bird and there are DH at-bats open now with Stanton set to play left field. Bird can take those at-bats. Another lefty bat in the lineup would be welcome, for sure. With Wade set to be the fourth outfielder, the Yankees can put both Bird and Voit in the lineup, and they sound excited about that scenario. Bird’s on the roster, I believe.

“I look at as we have two impact players,” Boone said to Randy Miller earlier this week. “Bird has been a different guy this year. He’s been the guy we’ve been waiting on. He looks that part right now (with) his at-bats. But Luke has come in and picked up where he left off last year. Both guys are controlling the strike zone. Both guys are impacting the ball. Both guys have done everything we could have hoped for. So now moving forward, we haven’t necessarily revealed anything, but now there’s a scenario where both of them can certainly factor in on a regular basis for at least early in the season.”

The Gio vs. German Spot (1)

I am working under the assumption Sabathia will serve his five-game suspension on Opening Day. That makes the most sense. The Yankees could get the suspension out of the way early, then use Sabathia’s injured list stint to recall a recently optioned player. I thought Domingo German would be that recently optioned player before the Betances injury. I’m not so sure now.

With Betances hurt and Cessa needed in the rotation right out of the gate, the Yankees are a little shorthanded in the bullpen, and carrying German on the Opening Day roster as a long man seems likely to me. If he’s needed in long relief at some point during Sabathia’s suspension, the Yankees will use him and call up someone else (Jonathan Loaisiga?) to be the interim fifth starter. If he’s not needed in long relief, he then becomes the fifth starter.

Loaisiga’s hasn’t had a good spring (11 runs in 12 innings) and pitching coach Larry Rothschild recently said it’s big league rotation or Triple-A for Johnny Lasagna. They’re going to develop him as a starter and not use him out of the bullpen even though I think a bullpen role shouldn’t be ruled out. Loaisiga has a long and scary injury history, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again. Harsh, but that’s the business.

With Loaisiga pitching himself out of the rotation conversation, there are three potential candidates to wrestle that fifth starter/swingman spot from German: David Hale, Drew Hutchison, and the recently signed Gio Gonzalez. Nestor Cortes isn’t a serious Opening Day roster candidate and Chance Adams has already been sent to minor league camp. That doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t carry Adams on the Opening Day roster. It just seems unlikely.

Hale and Hutchison have been fine this spring. They haven’t been mentioned as Opening Day roster candidates at all and I think — and I think the Yankees think — German is flat out better than both of them. Hale and Hutchison are break glass in case of emergency guys. You call them up when you have no one else. Even with all the pitching injuries, the Yankees are thankfully not at that point yet. They’re out, so it’s German vs. Gio.

Gonzalez reported to camp two days ago and he’s thrown upwards of 80 pitches on his own, so his arm is stretched out. “I don’t think I am far away at all,” he said to Kristie Ackert. “I have been staying with my routine. In my last (simulated game), I pitched Monday, 88 pitches, five innings. I am trying to keep up with baseball, at least I am doing my routine and sticking to my guns. I’ll be ready to go. Hopefully I’ll be in a game pretty soon.”

Brian Cashman hedged a bit, saying the Yankees are looking forward to getting a look at Gonzalez up close the next few weeks. He has an April 20th opt-out date and it sounds like the Yankees want to take their time evaluating him. If push comes to shove and injuries force their hand, sure, they’ll carry Gio on Opening Day. It does not sound like that’s the plan. It sounds like Gonzalez is Plan B with German being Plan A.

Had he signed over the winter and reported to Spring Training with everyone else, this would definitely be Gonzalez’s roster spot. That’s not what happened though. He signed late and, even though he’s stretch out to 80 or so pitches, he’s probably not where he needs to be with his feel for his stuff or his command. That gives German the edge. I think he’s on the roster as a long reliever who moves into the fifth starter’s spot when the time comes.

The Final Pitching Spot (1)

Sabathia’s suspension means the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster. A three-man bench equals 12 pitcher spots during the suspension, and we have ten locks plus German, leaving one open spot. Once Sabathia’s suspension ends and the Yankees go back to 13 pitches, either German slots in as the fifth starter and a reliever gets called up, or German remains in the bullpen and a starter gets called up. Point is, there’s one open pitching spot.

Sticking with players who remain in big league camp, the Yankees have ten candidates for that final pitching spot. Sure, they could also bring back someone who’s already been sent out (Adams?), but it does seem unlikely. The ten candidates:

On the 40-man roster (2): Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley
Not on the 40-man roster (8): Rex Brothers, Nestor Cortes, Danny Coulombe, Phil Diehl, Raynel Espinal, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Drew Hutchison

We’ve already ruled out Gonzalez, Hale, and Hutchison as serious Opening Day roster candidates earlier in this post. Also, Loaisiga is a big league rotation or bust guy, so, for our purposes, it’s bust. He’s in Triple-A. Brothers has eight walks in 5.1 innings this spring after walking 44 in 40.2 minor league innings last year. I think we can cross him off the list. Espinal had a visa issue and reported to camp late, and has thrown one (1) Grapefruit League inning. He falls into that “he won’t be fully ready for Opening Day” group, similar to Gio.

That leaves four candidates: Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl, and Tarpley. Pretty easy to see where this is going, right? It’ll be Tarpley. He’s already on the 40-man roster and he impressed the Yankees enough last September to get a spot on the ALDS roster. Also, Tarpley’s had a very nice spring, chucking ten scoreless innings. That won’t hurt his cause. Diehl’s been impressive at times this spring but he’s barely pitched above Single-A. Cortes? Coulombe? I have no reason to believe they are ahead of Tarpley in the bullpen pecking order. Tarpley it is.

The Projected Roster (24+1)

That is 24 active players plus one suspended Sabathia. Again, once the five-game suspension ends, Sabathia goes directly on the injured list and the Yankees call up another pitcher to get back to a normal three-man bench/eight-man bullpen arrangement. Injures have really stretched the Yankees thin already. Sheesh. Anyway, after all that, here’s the projected Opening Day roster:

Catchers	Infielders	Outfielders	Rotation	Bullpen
Gary Sanchez	1B Greg Bird	LF Giancarlo Stanton	Masahiro Tanaka	CL Aroldis Chapman
Austin Romine	1B Luke Voit	CF Brett Gardner	James Paxton	SU Zack Britton
	2B Gleyber Torres	RF Aaron Judge	J.A. Happ	SU Chad Green
	SS Troy Tulowitzki	UTIL Tyler Wade	Luis Cessa	SU Adam Ottavino
	3B Miguel Andujar			MR Jonathan Holder
	IF DJ LeMahieu			MR Tommy Kahnle
				MR Stephen Tarpley
				SWG Domingo German

That is 24 active players plus one suspended player (Sabathia) plus seven other players on the injured list (Betances, Ellsbury, Gregorius, Heller, Hicks, Montgomery, Severino). Once Sabathia’s suspension ends, he becomes the eighth (!) player on the injured list, and the Yankees get their 25th roster spot back. Presumably it goes to a pitcher seeing how they’ve rarely employed a seven-man bullpen the last two years or so.

Bird’s elbow could throw a wrench into the roster situation. If he’s unable to go Opening Day, the Yankees would have little choice but to carry Burns or Frazier as the extra outfielder, with LeMahieu moving into the everyday lineup (Andujar to DH?) and Wade taking over as the full-time backup infielder. Hopefully Bird’s elbow (and Wade’s hips) is a-okay and he’ll be fine come Opening Day.

The injuries have eliminated several position battles. With a healthy Severino, it’s German vs. Tarpley for one spot. With Hicks healthy, it’s Bird vs. Wade for one spot. The injuries answered some questions and everything kinda falls into place. I don’t think we can completely rule out Gio beating out German, though it would surprise me. It really seems like the Yankees want to get an extended look at Gonzalez in minor league games first.

Hopefully everyone stays healthy these next seven days and the Yankees can go into the regular season with that roster. That is almost certainly the best 24+1 unit they could put together right now. Once Sabathia goes on the injured list, the Yankees get the 25th roster spot back. Once Hicks returns, they’ll have to drop another position player. Worry about that later though. Those are questions the Yankees will answer when the time comes and not a minute sooner.

Feb. 28th Spring Training Notes: Severino, Chapman, Sanchez, Paxton, Wilson

February 28, 2019 by Mike

The Yankees beat the Pirates this afternoon and are 3-2 this spring. Troy Tulowitzki clubbed a three-run home run, his second dinger of the spring. “I’m probably more excited about how well he’s moving in the field and how he’s attacking the ball and just playing free and easy. He looks really athletic out there,” said Aaron Boone to Brendan Kuty after the game. Tyler Wade also went deep, and Greg Bird and Aaron Judge both had doubles. Bird is 5-for-8 (.625) with two doubles and a homer so far. He needs a good spring and is having one so far.

J.A. Happ made his spring debut and allowed three runs and two homers in 1.1 innings. I wouldn’t sweat that at all. A veteran like him is just going through the motions on February 28th. Adam Ottavino and Zack Britton both made their spring debuts as well. Ottavino allowed two runs on two hits and a walk. Britton tossed a scoreless frame. The important thing: Everyone’s healthy. Here’s the box score and here are today’s notes from Tampa:

As for yesterday’s report that Happ was starting on Friday and Paxton on Saturday, that was obviously wrong. Seems like someone wrote the wrong days in their notebook or something like that rather than the Yankees changing their pitching plans, then changing them back again. Anyway, Paxton starts tomorrow and Masahiro Tanaka starts Saturday.
Luis Severino and Aroldis Chapman threw simulated games today as scheduled. Giancarlo Stanton almost hit Severino with a hard-hit comebacker, which would’ve been bad. Here’s video. “It’s not fun,” Severino said of facing Stanton and Gary Sanchez. “I’m healthy and feel really good,” said Chapman when asked about his knee. [Lindsey Alder, Mark Didtler]
Sanchez (shoulder surgery) will indeed make his Grapefruit League debut tomorrow night as scheduled. He’s going to catch a few innings. The Yankees held Sanchez out of the first week of games as a precaution. Also, Tulowitzki will play four innings Saturday as the Yankees ease him into things. [Coley Harvey, Brendan Kuty]
Paxton has been picking Andy Pettitte’s brain this spring. “(We talked) about our back sides, our arm swings. We both have a tendency to get long. Towards the end of his career, he tried to shorten things up, took stress off the shoulder. He was chatting about that a little bit,” said Paxton. [George King, Ken Davidoff]
And finally, the Yankees don’t know whether Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson will join them for their Spring Training again this year. It was reported he would a few weeks ago, though I guess that was not set in stone. [Erik Boland]

The Yankees will play their first night game of the spring tomorrow when they host Orioles at George M. Steinbrenner Field. That game will not be televised. The next Yankees broadcast is Sunday.

Aroldis Chapman and his hopefully healthy knee [2019 Season Preview]

February 18, 2019 by Mike

Spring Training is underway and soon Grapefruit League games will begin. Between now and Opening Day we’re going to preview the 2019 Yankees bit-by-bit, player-by-player. We begin today with the guy who pitches at the end of the game.

The 2019 Yankees are built from the ninth inning forward. Brian Cashman & Co. have built what is, on paper, the deepest and most powerful bullpen in the sport. It is not particularly close either. Check out the projected bullpen WAR leaderboard at FanGraphs:

Yankees: +6.1 WAR
Brewers: +4.7 WAR
Mets: +4.3 WAR
Astros: +4.2 WAR
Pirates: +3.8 WAR

The gap between No. 1 and No. 2 is the same as the gap between No. 2 and No. 10. ZiPS guru Dan Szymborski says that, with 27 of the 30 teams complete, his system projects the Yankees to have three of the four best relievers in baseball by ERA+. Projections are not predictions, they are an estimate of current talent level, and the Yankees are loaded with bullpen talent right now.

At the center of that bullpen — or, more accurately, at the end of that bullpen — is Aroldis Chapman. Manager Aaron Boone has many options to bridge the gap between the starter and the ninth inning, but, when the bullpen door swings open in the ninth, we know who’s entering the game. It’s Chapman and the closer’s role is his. What happens in the innings leading up to Chapman is a little more up in the air due to matchups and whatnot.

Chapman will celebrate his 31st birthday next week and he was a deserving All-Star last season, throwing 51.1 innings with a 2.45 ERA (2.09 FIP) and a 43.9% strikeout rate. It was his highest strikeout rate in four years and the third highest in baseball among the 336 pitchers to throw at least 50 innings. Only Josh Hader (46.7%) and Edwin Diaz (44.3%) fanned batters at a higher rate in 2019.

This season Chapman will again serve as a linchpin in what figures to be the game’s best bullpen. Yes, the Yankees have the bullpen depth to cover the ninth inning should something go wrong. They also need Chapman to dominate in the ninth inning to get to where they want to go, which is to the World Series and down the Canyon of Heroes. Let’s preview the closer’s upcoming season.

How’s the knee?

A left knee injury, which was never classified as anything more than tendinitis, hampered Chapman throughout last season and sent him to what is now formerly known as the disabled list for about a month late in the year. He came back well and resumed closing in the postseason, and did not require anything more than rest in the offseason. Things are going well so far in Spring Training.

“Really good,” said Boone to Brendan Kuty last week when asked about the status if Chapman’s knee. “Obviously that’s something that we’ll keep close tabs on and stay vigilant with it. All the drills, trying to communicate with him exactly how he’s feeling. If you follow him on Instagram, you can see he was moving around pretty well this winter. He’s in really good condition as well.”

The good news is Chapman didn’t need surgery. Even something relatively minor like a torn meniscus is not all that minor. Surgery would’ve required rehab and cut into his offseason program. Instead, he was able to rest and have a relatively normal winter. Will the knee bark again this year? It’s impossible to know right now. Even Chapman admitted the knee is a bit of an unknown going forward.

“I want to say no, but you never know,” said Chapman to Dan Martin when asked whether his knee will be an issue again. “I don’t think it will be. I finished all the rehab they recommended and was able to keep working out.”

Taking it easy on Chapman in Spring Training will be a piece of cake. Those games are meaningless. Once the regular season begins, things get a little more hectic, and it won’t necessarily be easy to manage his workload or be proactive with the knee. My hunch is the Yankees and Chapman will do exactly what they did last year. They’ll monitor the knee and back off when necessary. Hopefully the offseason did the trick and another month-long stint on the injured list can be avoided.

Is another adjustment coming?

The injury was to Chapman’s left knee, his push off knee, and it’s probably not a coincidence his trademark fastball was missing a little velocity last year. I’m sure age (Father Time comes for all of us) and general wear-and-tear played a role in the velocity loss as well. Whatever caused it, Chapman’s velocity was down last season.

On one hand, Chapman averaged 99.1 mph with his fastball last year, third highest in baseball behind Jordan Hicks (101.7 mph) and Tayron Guerrero (99.4 mph). On the other, his heater averaged 101.2 mph in 2016 and 100.2 mph in 2017, so we’re talking a full mile-an-hour gone from his fastball from 2016 to 2017 and again from 2017 to 2018. What if he loses another mile-an-hour in 2019?

Last year Chapman ostensibly compensated for the velocity loss by throwing more sliders. More than he’d ever thrown in his entire career (25.5%). That slider came with great results as well. Here’s Chapman’s slider and the league averages for sliders:

AVG: .109 (.209 league average)
ISO: .094 (.138 league average)
xwOBA: .102 (.254 league average)
Whiffs-per-Swings: 60.2% (35.5% league average)
Ground Balls: 57.1% (44.1% league average)

Chapman’s slider was outrageously good last season. Granted, it’s a relatively small sample size (244 sliders), but it happened, and it was awesome. Chapman’s slider was so good last year that it’s almost kinda hard to expect to be that good again this year. I mean, a .102 xwOBA? More than six misses for every ten swings? Obscene. Even with a little slip in effectiveness, we’re still talking a dominant slider.

The Yankees are an anti-fastball team, but, in Chapman’s case, his fastball is so good that you can’t get away from it. Even with reduced (“reduced”) velocity, he still threw his fastball roughly 70% of the time last year, and that absolutely played a role in his slider’s effectiveness. Hitters must respect the triple-digit heater, and when they instead get the upper-80s slider, it can lead to silly swings. It’s pretty great.

With any luck Chapman will regain velocity with a healthy knee this season. It’s not far-fetched. A healthy push off knee could create that extra little oomph he lost last year. That said, I think Chapman is at the point of his career where you have to expect continued velocity loss. Don’t get mad at me. That’s just baseball. He’ll play the season at 31 and his arm has a good amount of mileage on it. Once velocity loss happens, it tends to keep happening.

I think one of two things will happen this season even if Chapman regains some velocity with a healthy knee, or just maintains last year’s velocity. One, he’ll begin to throw more changeups, or two, he’ll throw even more sliders. I suppose both could happen, actually. Chapman threw seven (7) changeups all last season and he’s never thrown it more than 7.8% of the time in his career. That would really mess with hitters. Chapman throwing more changeups.

As for throwing more sliders, this seems more likely to me than more changeups, and it’s probably not a bad idea. Chapman doesn’t have to go all Adam Ottavino and throw 50% sliders. That’s too extreme a jump. At the end of the day, Chapman is still a fastball pitcher and he should use that fastball a lot. Going from roughly 25% sliders to 35% sliders — that’s two extra sliders per appearance, basically — could help keep him overwhelmingly dominant as he ages.

Keep in mind the Yankees and Chapman were proactive last year. He came out of the gate throwing more sliders, long before it was clear his velocity had dipped (and the knee was an issue, in theory). It was something they were planning all along. Also, Chapman made the adjustment and had success. Some guys try to add a new pitch or further incorporate an old one more often and struggle. He showed the aptitude to make the adjustment, and if the velocity loss continues this year, Chapman has given us reason to believe he’ll adjust again.

The opt-out looms

This will be year three of Chapman’s five-year, $86M contract. That is the largest total guarantee ever given to a reliever and the $17.2M average annual value was a reliever record at the time, though Wade Davis ($17.3M) broke it with his contract last year. Chapman’s contract allows him to opt-out following this season and so far this spring he’s given the standard answer when asked about it.

“It’s something I really don’t think about. We haven’t started the season, so I’m not thinking about my contract,” Chapman said to Martin last week. I feel like everyone says that in the spring before their opt-out clause.

Anyway, for what it’s worth, Chapman’s contract is front-loaded, which could nudge him toward using the opt-out. Here’s the contract structure:

2017: $15M salary plus $1M of his $11M signing bonus
2018: $15M salary plus $5M of his $11M signing bonus
2019: $15M salary plus remaining $5M of his $11M signing bonus
2020: $15M salary
2021: $15M salary

By the end of the year Chapman will have been paid $56M of his $86M contract. He’d walk away from two years and $30M with the opt-out. Do Chapman and his representatives believe he can beat that on the open market? Forget about average annual value. Can he beat $30M total, even if we’re talking something like $42M across three years? That’s the question Chapman and his people will ponder.

The current free agent climate makes me think no player on a big money contract will (or should) opt-out anytime soon. In Chapman’s case, he’ll be 32 years old on Opening Day 2020 and we’re already seeing velocity loss. Even if the velocity returns this year, his age will work against him. Also, free agency did not bounce back this year. Last year was not an anomaly. It’s the new normal. Expecting a free agent market rebound next offseason is kinda foolish given what we know right now.

There’s no sense in sweating Chapman’s opt-out now. There is an entire season to play out first and his performance during the upcoming season will likely be the single biggest factor in his opt-out decision. With a healthy knee and a great season, Chapman could opt out, or at least try to leverage the opt-out into an extension with the Yankees. That will be especially true should Craig Kimbrel land a good deal in the coming weeks. More time on the injured list and more missing velocity would lead me to expect Chapman not to opt out.

* * *

As good as Chapman was last year — and he was very, very good — it’s not crazy to think he could be even better this season should his knee hold up, even at age 31. Everything in baseball starts from the ground up. You need a good base underneath you to do anything and Chapman’s lower half was compromised last year. With a healthy push off knee, his velocity could return (or at least not slip further) and his performance could get even better.

Even with a relief crew this deep, Chapman is the most crucial piece of the bullpen equation. Having him in the ninth means Boone is free to use Dellin Betances, Adam Ottavino, Zach Britton, and Chad Green however he sees fit earlier in game. If Chapman struggles or misses time, Britton probably steps in as closer and it changes the way the team operates. The Yankees are designed to out-slug their opponents in the early innings and smother them with the bullpen in the late innings. Chapman will again be a key piece in the team’s bullpen-centric approach.

Poll: After Derek Jeter, who will be the next Yankee voted into the Hall of Fame?

January 24, 2019 by Mike

Mariano Rivera made history throughout his 19-year career and he made history again earlier this week, when he became the first ever unanimous selection to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. All 425 voters named him on their ballot. I didn’t think it would happen but it did, and it’s pretty awesome. Couldn’t pick a better player to be the first unanimous Hall of Famer.

Mike Mussina, Rivera’s teammate with the Yankees for eight years, was also voted into the Hall of Fame earlier this week. Mussina has not yet decided whether he’ll wear a Yankees hat or an Orioles hat on his Hall of Fame plaque, though he did have more wins (147 to 123), more innings (2,009.2 to 1,553), more All-Star appearances (five to zero), and more WAR (+47.8 to +35.2) with the O’s. Going in as an Oriole seems appropriate.

Derek Jeter joins the Hall of Fame ballot next year and, like Rivera, he is a slam dunk first ballot Hall of Famer. He might even be unanimous! That would be fun, Rivera and Jeter being the first two unanimous Hall of Famers. Either way, Jeter is getting into the Hall of Fame next year. There’s no doubt about it. After that though, it might be a while until another Yankee gets voted into Cooperstown.

Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada have already dropped off the Hall of Fame ballot, having received less than the 5% needed to remain on the ballot another year. (Williams did spend two years on the ballot. Posada dropped off in year one.) Don Mattingly exhausted his 15 years on the ballot without being voted into the Hall of Fame. I suppose one of the eras committees could vote him in a la Harold Baines. We’ll see.

We know Jeter will be the next Yankee voted into the Hall of Fame by the Baseball Writers Association of America. We don’t know who will be the next after that. Let’s go through the upcoming candidates, shall we? Here are the Yankees due to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot in the coming years.

2020 ballot

Jeter is the big name here. He’s the only slam dunk Hall of Famer joining the ball next year. Also joining the ballot are former Yankees Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, and Alfonso Soriano. Abreu has a stathead case for Cooperstown but, if he gets in, he’ll have a Phillies cap on his plaque. He played more games with the Phillies (1,353) than all other teams combined (1,072).

Giambi played more games with the Athletics (1,036) than the Yankees (897), plus he won an MVP and finished second in the MVP voting while with the A’s. Also, there’s the performance-enhancing drug thing. Giambi gave that vague apology for letting people down without ever saying what he did, but we all know what he was talking about. So many Hall of Fame voters are dug in against PEDs that, even if Giambi’s case were stronger than it actually is, I still don’t think he’d get in.

Soriano played more games with the Cubs (889) than the Yankees (626) but he had some of his best seasons in pinstripes. He led the league in hits (209) and homers (41) in 2002 and finished third in the Rookie of the Year voting and third in the MVP voting while with the Yankees. Soriano’s best season, his 40/40 season (46 homers and 41 steals) came with the Nationals in 2006.

I don’t think Giambi has a chance at the Hall of Fame because of the PED stuff. Abreu and Soriano strike me as Hall of Very Good players rather than Hall of Famers, and hey, there’s nothing wrong with that. They had great careers and made tons of dough. Also, we’re looking for the next Yankee Hall of Famer here, and I don’t think Giambi, Abreu, or Soriano would have a Yankees hat on his Hall of Fame plaque even if they get in. They did more with other teams.

The best player with a chance to go into the Hall of Fame as a Yankee next year other than Jeter is Andy Pettitte. Pettitte was on the ballot for the first time this year and he received only 9.9% of the vote. He’s much, much closer to falling off the ballot than he is getting the 75% needed for induction into Cooperstown. It took Mussina six years on the ballot to get into the Hall of Fame. I have to think it’ll take Pettitte at least that long, if not longer to gain induction.

2021 ballot

There are no slam dunk Hall of Famers set to join the ballot in 2021, Yankees or otherwise. The best players joining the ballot are probably Tim Hudson and Mark Buehrle. The best former Yankees set to join the ballot are A.J. Burnett and Nick Swisher. Next.

2022 ballot

Now we’re talking. Alex Rodriguez joins the ballot in three years and his career was very obviously worthy of the Hall of Fame. There’s no arguing with the raw numbers. A-Rod is one of the 10-15 best players in the game’s history and, if you take his career at face value, he should be a unanimous selection. You can’t take his career at face value though. Rodriguez admitted to using PEDs and served a year-long suspension for a separate PED transgression.

If Barry Bonds and Rogers Clemens do not get into the Hall of Fame, A-Rod has little hope of getting in. The voting body is skewing younger and thus more forgiving of PEDs, but so many voters are dug in on this subject and will not change their minds. Jeff Passan recently spoke to voters who do not vote for Bonds or Clemens and it’s clear where they stand. Bonds and Clemens have seen their support plateau in recent years. It would take a sea change in the Hall of Fame voting for them to get in before their eligibility expires in three years.

In the unlikely event he does get voted into Cooperstown, it’s safe to assume A-Rod would go in as a Yankee. He played more games as a Yankee (1,509) than he did as a Mariner and Ranger combined (1,275), plus he won two MVPs in pinstripes and his World Series ring. More games, more homers (351 to 345), more hardware, more rings as a Yankee than everywhere else combined. Should he get in — assuming Rodriguez stays on the ballot all ten years, his final year of eligibility will be 2031, which is a looong ways away — A-Rod would go in as a Yankee.

The other notable former Yankee joining the ballot in three years is Mark Teixeira. My hunch is that, if Fred McGriff was unable to get into the Hall of Fame, Teixeira won’t get in either. Teixeira did hit 409 homers and he led the league in homers and total bases once (39 and 344 in 2009, respectively), but that’s pretty much it. Teixeira did play more games as a Yankee (958) than as a Ranger, Brave, and Angel combined (904), so if he gets into the Hall of Fame, I think he’d go in as a Yankee. I’m just not sure he’s getting in.

2023 ballot

The only serious Hall of Fame candidate joining the ballot in four years is Carlos Beltran. I think he’ll get into Cooperstown. If not on the first ballot, than eventually. Beltran is an unlikely candidate to be the next Yankee in the Hall of Fame simply because he played the bulk of his career elsewhere. Only 341 of his 2,586 career games came in pinstripes, or 13.2%. I guess Beltran would go into the Hall of Fame as a Royal or Met? Either way, it won’t be as a Yankee, so Beltran’s not the answer to our question.

2024 ballot

Players who retired following last season will be eligible for Hall of Fame induction in 2024. That means Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, and David Wright. They combined for zero (0) games as a Yankee. Matt Holliday and Curtis Granderson could also join the Hall of Fame ballot in five years if they fail to find work this winter. Holliday spent one kinda crummy year with the Yankees. He’d go in as a Rockie or Cardinal. Granderson had some of his best seasons in pinstripes but played more games with the Tigers (674) and Mets (573) than the Yankees (513). Love the Grandyman but I don’t see him as a serious Hall of Fame candidate.

Active players

Ichiro Suzuki is a clear cut Hall of Famer and he’s going in as a Mariner, as he should. That leaves two active players who spend the bulk of their careers with the Yankees and deserve serious Hall of Fame consideration: Robinson Cano and CC Sabathia. This offseason’s trade ensures Cano would go into Cooperstown as a Yankee. He’ll split the second half of his career between (at least) two teams, meaning he won’t be able to accomplish enough with the Mariners to change his legacy from Yankees great to Mariners great.

Cano of course served a PED suspension last year, which likely ruins his chances at the Hall of Fame. Manny Ramirez has no-doubt Hall of Fame credentials, but, because he served two PED suspensions, he hasn’t topped 24% of the vote in his three years on the Hall of Fame ballot. Cano is closing in on 3,000 hits and Jeff Kent’s home run record for second basemen. Robbie’s the best second baseman of his generation. The suspension means he has a tough hill to climb.

Assuming Cano finishes out the final five years on his contract, that means he’s ten years away from appearing on the Hall of Fame ballot and 20 years away from exhausting his ten years on the ballot. We could still be talking about Robbie being on the ballot as a potential Hall of Famer in 2038! That’s an awfully long way away, man. The voting body can and will change between now and then, and a PED suspension may not be as much of a dealbreaker then as it is now. We’ll see.

Sabathia has more wins (129 to 117) and more starts (284 to 254) as a Yankee than he did as an Indian and Brewer combined, though he has slightly less WAR (+29.7 to +32.5). Also, Sabathia won his Cy Young in Cleveland and split 2008, his best individual season, between the Indians and Brewers. He won his World Series ring (and ALCS MVP) as a Yankee and has three top four finishes in the Cy Young voting in pinstripes. At some point this year he’ll record his 250th win and 3,000th strikeout, which is pretty cool.

I believe Sabathia would have a Yankees hat on his Hall of Fame plaque. The real question is whether he gets into Cooperstown. Mussina was an objectively better pitcher and he had to wait six years on the ballot to get in. Pettitte was a notch below Sabathia but he has the whole legacy Yankee thing going for him, and he didn’t come close to induction this year. (Pettitte is an admitted human growth hormone user though.) Sabathia will retire after this season and that means he’ll hit the Hall of Fame ballot in 2025. If he gets into the Hall of Fame, it’ll probably take several years on the ballot a la Mussina (and Pettitte).

Looking more long-term, Giancarlo Stanton is on a potential Hall of Fame track seeing how he’s at 300 homers and +40 WAR through his age 28 season. Five-hundred homers and +65 WAR is well within reach. Aroldis Chapman is like 60% of the way to Billy Wagner’s career at this point and Wagner hasn’t come close to induction yet, so Chapman has an uphill climb. Aaron Judge was a bit of a late-bloomer (he played his first MLB season at age 25), which puts him behind the Hall of Fame eight-ball. Gary Sanchez? Gleyber Torres? Miguel Andujar? Luis Severino? Great talents who are a long, long way from the Cooperstown combination.

What about Dellin Betances? He is the best setup man of his generation (yup) and it’s possible that, by time he’s eligible to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot, the voters may have very different standards for relief pitchers. As long as Wagner stays so far away from induction — this was Wagner’s fourth year on the ballot and he’s yet to receive even 17% of the vote — I can’t see Betances as a serious Hall of Fame candidate. Gosh, it would be fun though, wouldn’t it?

* * *

We know Jeter will be voted into the Hall of Fame next year. That is a certainty. The next Yankee to go into the Hall of Fame after Jeter is up in the air, largely because A-Rod and Cano have served PED suspensions, which significantly lowers their chances of winding up in Cooperstown. Since we’re here, we might as well turn this into a poll, so let’s get to it.

Who will be the next Yankee voted into the Hall of Fame after Jeter?