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The future of Mark Teixeira

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While I remain unconcerned that Mark Teixeira is done as a top notch hitter, it’s tough to ignore the now 3 month slump he is in heading back to the 2009 postseason.  While we can write off April as he always struggles, he hasn’t yet turned it around the way we expected.  Since the Yankees have Teixeira signed thru 2016 (his age 36 season) I wanted to see how comparable hitters thru age 29 fared from their age 30-36 seasons to see what could be in store for Tex.  I’m simply using Tex’s 5 most similar hitters (per B-Ref), so there can certainly be extenuating circumstances that can explain either a surge in offense or a drop off.  Tex should profile pretty well, as he has been healthy, is a hard worker, and seems to take care of himself off the field.  These guys may be fatter, skinnier, have used steroids, partied harder, etc., so it’s not necessarily a prediction of what Tex will do over the next 7 years (2010 inclusive), but more how comparable bats have fared.

#1 Carlos Delgado

Delgado was a beast from age 30-36.  In his worst season, his last in Toronto, he still managed a .269/.372/.535 129 OPS+ line with 32 HR’s in just 128 games.  If Tex’s production is anywhere near Delgado’s, the contract will play out just fine.  As a hitter Delgado’s best seasons are better than Teixiera’s, but Tex so far has been a little more consistent year in and year out.

#2 Kent Hrbek

Hrbek is certainly the scary name on the list but better than I remember.  He was a beast on RBI Baseball, and while his numbers thru age 29 don’t include any 40 HR seasons, he was  regularly in the mid 20’s when that actually meant something.  He was a solid hitter, but not in the truly elite class of baseball.  He never even made it to 36, retiring after his age 34 season.  Here’s hoping Tex does a lot better than Hrbek after turning 30.

#3 Jeff Bagwell

Bagwell had already slowed by the time he was 30 but was still producing in a big way.  From 26-29 his OPS+ was an astounding 168.  After the age of 30 his high was 162, and never hit 140 once turning 33, dropping every year from the age of 31 until he retired at 37.  I’d love to see Bagwell-type production from Tex, though he certainly was past his prime by the time he hit 32.

#4 Fred McGriff

The Crime Dog was productive from 30-36, but only had 2 great seasons in 1994 and 1999.  Every other year his OPS+ was between 106 and 119.  Clearly not a hole in the lineup, but not the production Tex was brought in to provide.  Of note with McGriff is that while 1994 was a great year for him, it was a great (and interesting) year for offense in baseball altogether.  When the strike hit, McGriff had 34 HR’s in only 113 games, which was just two off his career high.  Tex producing like McGriff from 30-36 wouldn’t be a total disappointment, but also not what the Yankees are paying for.

#5 Jim Thome

Thome is clearly the class of this bunch after the age of 30.  He had the two best seasons of his career at ages 30 and 31 and was still producing up to age 36 (and beyond).  He did have an injury shortened year at 34 which led to him ending up back in the American League as a full time DH.  DH’ing likely helped Thome’s later years, but it’s doubtful that Tex will be spending much time at DH in the future.  I’ll say right now that Tex will not produce like Thome from age 30-36 as he simply isn’t as a good a hitter as Thome was, but hopefully he’ll be able to age like Thome and continue to produce at a very high level.

The good news as you can see as everyone but Hrbek was healthy and played quite a few games from ages 30-36.  Hrbek was done after the strike season in 1994, playing just 81 games with a 99 OPS+.  Everyone else averaged at least 134 games (and that was Thome who was held back as a DH) and produced.  The bad news is that they all had their best seasons at either 30 or 31 and it was downhill from there.  Still productive but downhill.  While that’s concerning enough, it’s even more concerning considering all of these guys played in the height of the steroids era, when the aging process seemed to stand still for many players.  Clearly Tex’ best post 30 season won’t be this year, but even if he’s great again next year, it might be the best we see out of Tex for the remainder of the contract.

For more of my work head over to Mystique and Aura.

A Plan C at DH

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Carlos DelgadoOf the three major holes the Yankees have to fill this offseason, designated hitter is probably the least important. I think everyone’s preference is to bring Hideki Matsui back on a one year deal, and we’ve already discussed Nick Johnson as a backup plan. However, every good backup plan needs a backup backup plan.

One such backup backup plan could be former Toronto great Carlos Delgado. After spending the last four years stuck in Queens, Delgado hits the free agent market for just the second time in his career (the first time he cashed in on a four year, $52M deal from the Marlins of all teams). However, the former AL MVP runner-up missed all but a month of the 2009 season with an inpingement in his hip, which is the exact same thing that kept A-Rod on the shelf to start the season. Delgado went ahead and had the full blown surgery to repair the condition rather than the hybrid procedure the Yanks’ third baseman had. It was Delgado’s first trip to the DL in four years, a testament to his durability. A-Rod and Chase Utley came back from similar procedures like champs, however those guys are world class athletes and several years younger than Delgado.

Obviously, there’s a tremendous health risk in signing Delgado. He’s expected to join a Puerto Rican League winter ball team soon, which will give him a chance to showcase his surgically repaired hip. The risk comes with a potential great reward however, as Delgado remains one of the game’s best sluggers despite being 37-years-old.

Prior to the hip injury (SSS, yes), Delgado was hitting .298-.393-.521 this year (no doubt fueled by a .343 BABIP), and that includes .280-.393-.600 in 61 plate appearances at spacious CitiField (.314 BABIP). Over the last three seasons, Delgado’s been a .267-.347-.488 hitter, though that includes a .229-.306-.396 first half in 2008 before Ross Ohlendorf was nice enough to help get him back on track.  Delgado played in the AL for a long time, and he’s done the DH thing before, so there’s certainly some familiarity. Plus, I learned from watching Yankees on Deck that he’s great friends with Jorge Posada, another feature in the familiarity cap. Oh yeah, I went there.

Any team that signs Carlos Delgado shouldn’t expect the .290-.400-.580 monster he was for most of his career, instead he’s probably a .260-.380-.470 guy these days, which really isn’t that far off from what Hideki Matsui was in 2009. His power remains elite (sitting around a .220 IsoP the last few years), and it’ll probably get a bump up improve with a move to the New Yankee Stadium. Of course, the health of his hip is the controlling condition. If he’s not 100% a-okay, then forget it. Oh, and nothing more than a one year deal too.

Also, just because his name will come up, the soon-to-be non-tendered Jack Cust could also be an option. However the only two departments in which he provides value – on-base ability and power – have been in decline during the past three years. Is OBP has dropped from .408 in 2007 to .375 in 2008 to .356 in 2009, while his SLG has gone from .504 to .476 to .417. If more advanced stats are what you crave, his IsoD has gone from .152 to .144 to .116 in that time while his IsoP has dropped from .248 to .245 to .177. After three full years in the league, the book may be out Cust, and he doesn’t appear to have adjusted back yet.

I’m not saying Cust is a non-option at DH, but he should only be a “break glass in case of emergency” option. World Series MVP Hideki Matsui remains the most obvious and best choice to fill the DH spot going into 2010, however there are no shortage of affordable options.