River Avenue Blues

Yankeemetrics: Two not enough, Sox celebrate (Sept. 18-20)

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(USA Today)

Neil Walker, the Clutch Home Run Corker
For at least one day, the Yankees staved off an embarrassing AL East championship watch party in the Bronx as they rallied for a 3-2 victory in Tuesday’s series opener. The Yankees won despite just three hits, the second time this season they’ve pulled off that feat at Yankee Stadium (the other game was September 1 vs Detroit). The last time they won multiple home games with no more than three hits was 1998.

Before we get to the late-game dramatics, let’s recognize the gutty performance of J.A. Happ, who pitched out of several jams while holding the Red Sox to one unearned across six innings. Happ has a 0.54 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox this season; that’s the lowest ERA by any AL pitcher against any opponent this season (min. 3 starts and 10 IP).

Down 1-0 in the seventh with two men on base, Neil Walker snatched the hero’s cape as he drilled a 3-2 pitch from Ryan Braiser into the second deck in right field, flipping the score for a 3-1 advantage. It was his third go-ahead homer in the seventh inning or later, the most by any Yankee this season. It was the team’s 18th go-ahead home run in the seventh inning or later, the second-most in a season in franchise history, trailing only the 2009 club (21).

That blast was also Walker’s 10th of the season as he became the 11th Yankee to reach double digits in 2018. That ties the major-league record, done by four other teams: 2017 Astros, 2016 Twins, 2015 Astros and 2004 Tigers.

(USA Today)

Luuuuuke and the Return of Severino
The Yankees kept Boston’s celebratory champagne corked for a second night in a row, routing their rival 10-1 on Tuesday. Also, significant is the fact that it kept the Red Sox at 103 wins with 10 games remaining, so that they won’t be able to match the 1998 Yankees 114-win season.

The Bombers beat up on their favorite punching bag, David Price, clobbering three home runs off him while scoring six runs (four earned) in five-plus innings. In four starts against the Yankees this season, Price has a 10.34 ERA over 15 2/3 innings. That would be the highest ERA by a Red Sox pitcher against the Yankees in a single season (min. 4 starts). Oh, and did I mention that Price really really doesn’t like pitching in the Bronx …

Luis Severino took another step forward in his slow climb back to #AceSevy as he overcame a lack of fastball command to mostly shut down the Red Sox lineup, allowing one run across seven strong innings. In contrast to Price, Sevy really really likes pitching against the Red Sox in the Bronx recently:

Miguel Andujar jump-started the dinger parade early with a homer in the second inning to put the Yankees up 1-0. It came on a 1-2 pitch from Price, his 12th homer when behind in the count, which leads all major-league players this season. The solo blast was also his 25th of the season, giving the Yankees a MLB-best four players with at least 25 homers this season.

Even more impressive is Andujar’s nearly unprecedented combo of two-baggers and longballs this season.

  • He is one of five AL rookies, aged 23 or younger, to hit at least 25 homers and 40 doubles. The other four: Nomar Garciaparra (1997), Ted Williams (1939), Joe DiMaggio (1936) and Hal Trosky (1934).
  • And he is the only rookie third baseman (at least 50% of games played at the position) in MLB history to reach those totals in a season.


Luke Voit stole the headlines, though, with a monster 4-for-4, 3-RBI night that included two homers off Price. In 70 games with the Cardinals, Voit never hit more than one homer in a game and never had more than two hits in any game. In 29 games with the Yankees, he already has two multi-homer performances and three games with at least three hits. And to celebrate the huge performance by the chest-hair-pimping first basemen, we’ll give him our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series. Here is the list of Yankees with at least four hits, four runs scored and three RBI in a game against the Red Sox

  • Luke Voit (Sept. 19, 2018)
  • Graig Nettles (Sept. 29, 1976)
  • Hank Bauer (May 10, 1952)
  • Lou Gehrig (Sept. 23, 1933)
  • Babe Ruth (Sept. 28, 1923)

All good things come to an end
It finally happened. Needing a sweep to prevent a cruel division-clinching party by their blood rival at The Stadium, the Yankees snatched defeat from the jaws of victory as they allowed the Red Sox to rally late for a 11-6 victory. This is the Red Sox 10th AL East title in the Divisional Era (since 1969) and the first time they’ve clinched it with a win against the Yankees.

(Newsday)

Masahiro Tanaka, coming off back-to-back scoreless outings, was hit hard by the Red Sox lineup early and often, giving up four runs in the first three innings and got the hook with no outs in the fifth. This continued a string of poor performances against the Red Sox this season: in four starts, he has a 7.58 ERA with 29 hits and six home runs allowed over 19 innings pitched.

With one swing of the bat in the second inning, Luke Voit set two home run records when he bashed a 93-mph pitch deep over the center-field wall. It was his 10th homer in pinstripes and he became the 12th Yankee this season with double-digit dingers, the most such players for any team in MLB history. The two-run blast was also the Bombers’ 246th home run in 2018, setting a new single-season franchise record.

Giancarlo Stanton broke out of his slump with a grand slam in the fourth inning that turned a 4-2 deficit into a 6-4 lead. Yes, the lead would disappear quickly, but he still deserves a shout-out, so here’s a #FunFact stat to chew on:

As mentioned above, that advantage lasted only a couple innings as Chad Green surrendered a game-tying homer to Jackie Bradley Jr leading off the seventh. Green has allowed nine homers in 71 2/3 innings this season; entering 2018, he had given up four homers in 76 1/3 career innings as a reliever.

Dellin Betances tried to clean up Green’s mess in the seventh, but after loading the bases, he coughed up a tie-breaking sac fly to Xander Bogaerts. It was the first sac fly allowed by Betances in more than two years (August 30, 2016 vs Royals).

Mailbag: Bird, Chatwood, Sanchez, Ryu, Gardner, Voit

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There are eight questions in this week’s mailbag. You can send all your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com each week and I’ll answer as many as I can.

Bird. (Presswire)

Yogi asks: How close are we to seeing Bird getting non-tendered this offseason? At what point do the Yankees determine he is a “change of scenery” guy and cut bait?

Not at all close to being non-tendered. If anything they’d tender him and trade him. Greg Bird will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason and his raise won’t be significant given all the injuries and career .212/.302/.433 (97 wRC+) batting line. C.J. Cron received $2.3M as a first year arbitration-eligible player last offseason and I don’t see why Bird should receive anything close to that, let alone more. My guess is his salary falls in the $1M to $1.5 range next year. That’s nothing. Keep him and send him to Triple-A next season — Bird has all three minor league options remaining — and make him show he’s healthy and productive before giving him another shot in the big leagues. There’s no reason to non-tender him when he could be stashed in Triple-A. No more guaranteeing Bird a job though. He has to earn it.

Chris asks (short version): Does Greg Bird even make the postseason roster?

My initial thought was yes, but, the more I think about, the answer very well might be no. The Yankees carried ten pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster last year, which means a six-man bench. I think Bird makes the six-man bench as a lefty bench bat who could maybe poke one into the short porch, assuming the Wild Card Game is in the Bronx. The Yankees carried 12 pitches on the ALDS and ALCS rosters last year. Does Bird make a four-man bench? Assuming Luke Voit starts at first and Andrew McCutchen starts in left, three of the four bench spots go to Austin Romine, Neil Walker, and Brett Gardner. That last spot is down to Bird (lefty bat), Adeiny Hechavarria (defensive replacement), Ronald Torreyes (utility infielder), and Tyler Wade (speedster). I’d probably take Bird among those four, but I don’t feel strongly about it. Point is, Bird is not a safe bet to be on the ALDS roster should the Yankees win the Wild Card Game.

Michael asks: A while back there was an article on Fangraphs (you probably read it) about a trade of Sonny Gray for Tyler Chatwood. Do you think Chatwood could be an effective RP for the Yanks, and would that be shooting too low in a Sonny Gray trade this winter?

Here is Sheryl Ring’s article on Gray-for-Chatwood from earlier this year. The general idea is sending Chatwood to the anti-fastball Yankees and Gray to the anti-anti-fastball Cubs would help both guys turn their seasons around. I fully expect the Yankees to trade Gray this winter, and it’ll probably be for another change-of-scenery type, but I’m not sure Chatwood is the guy I want. The dude has a 5.30 ERA (5.59 FIP) with 17.5% strikeouts and 19.6% walks in 103.2 innings. That’s 85 strikeouts and 95 walks in 103.2 innings. Eek.

That isn’t to say Chatwood has no redeeming qualities. His 54.1% ground ball rate is strong and right in line with his career average (54.7%), and his trademark curveball continues to have an extremely high spin rate. He just doesn’t use it much. Roughly 10% of the time the last two years. Chatwood has always had control problems — they were never this extreme, but the guy does have a career 12.0% walk rate — and he’s owed $25.5M the next two years. Even if the Cubs eat some money, I’m not sure I want to bet on him suddenly learning how to throw strikes, especially when the plan is more curveballs. Chatwood’s one of the few pitchers I wouldn’t trade Gray for at this point.

Dan asks: Last year, Gary Sanchez made tons of trips to the mound, presumably to get on the same page with the pitcher. This year, with the new rule limiting trips to the mound, he obviously can’t make as many. It seems like a lot of his passed balls are the result of being crossed up. Could this new rule be part of the reason why he is struggling defensively?

I hadn’t thought about that but I suppose it’s possible. We’ve seen Sanchez get crossed up a bunch this year, especially since he returned from the disabled list, and I suppose not being able to go out to the mound to talk things over could be a factor in that. Passed pitches (wild pitches and passed balls) are not up at all league-wide this year. There’s one passed pitch every 19.9 innings this year. Last year it was every 19.7 innings. The year before it was every 19.9 innings. So yeah, same rate.

League-wide there has been no apparent increase on passed pitches due to the new mound visit rule. It doesn’t mean it hasn’t had any affect on Sanchez though. Fewer mound visits means less communication and it could be leading to more cross-ups and thus more passed pitches. Sanchez’s blocking issues stem from poor technique more than anything. Add in fewer mound visits and it’s just another thing he has to worry about it. Gary isn’t a good blocker to start with. Mix in the potential for more miscommunication and bad things can (and have) happened.

Ryu. (Harry How/Getty)

Paul asks: What about Hyun Jin Ryu as someone to pursue this offseason? Obviously a health risk but he’s a lefty with good GB numbers.

Yes. I am a Hyun-Jin Ryu fan and have been since I read a scouting report that described him as the “Korean David Wells” back in the day. And that’s pretty much exactly what he’s been. A hefty lefty who’s a bit goofy and fills up the strike zone. Ryu has a 2.18 ERA (3.01 FIP) with 27.9% strikeouts, 4.6% walks, and 45.4% grounders in 70.1 innings around a pretty serious groin injury this season. His overall career numbers (3.25 ERA and 3.41 FIP) are quite good as well.

Ryu turns 32 in March and the big concern here is injuries. He had very serious shoulder problems that caused him to miss the entire 2015 season and just about the entire 2016 season. His fastball velocity rebounded well after surgery, so that’s good, but it’s still a major injury and that’s always a red flag. I dunno, I like Ryu. He’s good, he’s fun, and I don’t think pitching in New York would bother him at all. What’ll cost? Is he willing to play on the East Coast? I don’t know. But I like the idea of pursuing Ryu.

Alessandro asks: What’s your favorite Yankee near trade/signing that never happened? Maddux, Vlad, and of Cliff Lee come to mind.

Favorite? I’m not sure I’d call it my favorite, but the Cliff Lee non-trade is the biggest “what could have been?” transaction in my book. I was a little too young to understand what it meant to lose out on Greg Maddux (and Barry Bonds!) during the 1992-93 offseason. Passing on Carlos Beltran back in 2005 still irks me, and while I wanted Vlad Guerrero, the Yankees did end up with Gary Sheffield, so they didn’t miss out too much.

The Lee non-trade in 2010 was brutal though. The Yankees and Mariners reportedly had a deal in place, then Seattle backed out claiming they didn’t like David Adams’ medicals, though it’s been speculated the Mariners backed out after the Rangers agreed to include Justin Smoak in the trade. Either way, the Yankees had a deal in place for Lee, then it fell apart, and then he helped beat them in the 2010 ALCS. Gah. The Yankees were so good that year and the non-trade might’ve been the difference between an ALCS ouster and back-to-back World Series titles.

Gus asks: I saw Mike write that the Yankees had room under the cap to trade for Donaldson – but isn’t that not the case if they decline Gardner’s option and have to apply the buyout to this year’s payroll? That seems likely to me.

Gardner’s $12.5M club option for next year includes a $2M buyout and that buyout is guaranteed money. It’s already baked into the average annual value (luxury tax hit) of his contract. If the Yankees decline the option, they have to pay him the $2M, but it doesn’t get tacked onto their 2018 luxury tax payroll. If they exercise the option, Gardner’s luxury tax hit is $10.5M next year, which is the $12.5M salary minus the $2M buyout they’ve already been charged. The Yankees had enough room to fit Josh Donaldson and his $1.3M salary (that’s what the Indians are paying him) under the $197M luxury tax threshold. Gardner’s buyout doesn’t affect anything.

Anonymous asks: Is there anything in Voit’s batted ball profile or spray chart that would lead you to believe that what he’s done so far is sustainable over the course of a full season?

Well, he’s not going to sustain a 42.3% HR/FB rate. I know that much. No one does that. The highest single-season HR/FB rate on record belongs to Ryan Howard (39.5% in 2006). Next highest? Aaron Judge last year (35.6%). Only 14 other players posted a 30% HR/FB rate or better going back to 2002, which is as far as publicly available batted ball data goes. So yeah, I wouldn’t count on Voit maintaining this homer rate.

That said, Voit has done some very good things in his limited time as a Yankee. Going into last night’s game he had a 37.9% ground ball rate and a 43.1% hard contact rate. He’s hitting the ball hard and he’s hitting it in the air, and when you do that, good things happen. The exit velocity and launch angle data gives Voit an expected .418 wOBA. His actual wOBA is .425. He’s been properly rewarded for the contact he’s been making. Can Voit continue making this caliber of contact? It would be cool. At some point the league will adjust — it might not happen until next year at this point — and he’ll have to adjust back. For now, the contact he’s been making suggests this production is no fluke. It’s deserved.

Red Sox 11, Yankees 6: Stanton’s slam not enough, Red Sox clinch it in Bronx

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The Yankees, after all, lost a game in this series and let the Red Sox celebrate the division title in Bronx. It happens. Another noteworthy thing that happened in the past three games is that they took two out of the three from the hottest team in baseball this year. A sweep would have been nicer, though. Oh well. The Yankees also set two home run records but that feels like a footnote now. The Yankees had a 6-4 lead after the fourth, but the Sox offense struck back against the bullpen and then more.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Early in the game

The Red Sox got it started with their very first batter of the game. Mookie Betts got a hold of Masahiro Tanaka’s fastball and hit a leadoff double that hit the top of the left field wall. Andrew Benintendi grounded out to advance Betts to third. The Yankees brought the infield in to face J.D. Martinez and it didn’t work, as he singled through the middle for an RBI single. 1-0 Red Sox. Tanaka got out of the inning without further damage, but not before the Red Sox top hitters made him throw 31 pitches. The Yankee hitters responded by making Eduardo Rodriguez throw 29 pitches, but failed to push a run across.

Boston did more damage in the second. Rafael Devers and Blake Swihart led off the inning with a single each. Tanaka bounced back by grounding out Jackie Bradley Jr. and striking out Christian Vazquez. Up came Mookie Betts, who is a huge thorn in the side for pitchers regardless of the situation. In a 0-2 count, after discussing it with Gary Sanchez, Tanaka threw a fastball on the low outside corner and Betts didn’t miss any of it. He lined the pitch into the center for a two-RBI single to add to their lead. 3-0 Sox.

The Bombers jumped on Rodriguez for two runs in the bottom of the inning. It came from a bat of none other than Luke Voit, who’s been literally one of the best hitters in the majors in the past 30 days. With Sanchez on first, Voit hit a Rodriguez fastball down the middle over the center field fence for a two-run homer. I don’t know if the league will figure him out or not, but man, he is so fun to watch *and* has provided a much-needed solution to the first baseman problem. It only took Giovanny Gallegos and Chasen Shreve.

With the Voit homer, the Yankees have 12 players with 1o or more home runs in a season, which is a Major League record. They also have 246 big flies this season, which is a franchise record. Pretty cool, huh? This is the dingerest season in the franchise history full of dinger hitters. That’s also coming with Sanchez banged up and struggling for most of the season, Aaron Judge injured for about two months, Giancarlo Stanton going through slumps here and there, etc. Imagine how it could have been had they been healthier.

The Grand Slam

(Getty Images/Jim McIsaac)

The philosophy is to keep piling on baserunners and push for the runners to score. The Yankees had their share of baserunners for the first three innings – eight, to be precise – and managed to score only two. In the fourth, however, they brought in four with a Giancarlo Stanton granny. E-Rod started the inning by retiring Voit and Gleyber Torres. Then his command hit a snag. Andrew McCutchen, Judge and Aaron Hicks all worked a to load the bases and Alex Cora pulled the lefty out of the game. It wasn’t clear that Rodriguez was going deep into the outing either, as he had accumulated upwards of 80 pitches before the frame started.

In came Heath Hembree, facing Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton took the first pitch fastball for a strike. Hembree responded with a slider outside but Stanton didn’t miss any of it. His swing looked like a flick of the wrist with his arm extended, but that was a good enough. He made contact, and the ball sailed over the right field fence for a grand slam. 6-4 Yankees.

Looking back, that was certainly a big moment. But the Red Sox do have a formidable offense that you couldn’t help but feel it nagging in the back of the head that the game is far from over. Had the Yankees held the lead for the rest of it, it would have been something iconic for rest of the year, and something we’d look back for next few years (a la Mark Teixeira grand slam in late 2016 vs. Boston).

In the following frame, Tanaka continued to struggle. Betts doubled to lead it off and Benintendi singled to put runners on corners with J.D. Martinez due up. With 83 pitches thrown in four innings, Boone decided not to take any more risks with Tanaka and went to the bullpen. David Robertson induced a run-scoring double play to erased the baserunners and kept the Yankees’ one-run lead heading into the bottom of fifth. What happened after that… wasn’t pretty.

The Bullpen War Lost

After both Tanaka and Rodriguez got knocked out of the game, it was up to the both teams’ bullpen to hold each other’s offense. Unfortunately for the Yanks, it was the Red Sox that did it better.

Things got off to a decent start. After Robertson got out of the fifth with only one inherited runner scored, Chad Green took over in the sixth and struck out the side. However, in the seventh, he allowed a second-deck home run to Jackie Bradley Jr. for a tie game and a single to Christian Vazquez. Boone went to the bullpen and brought in Dellin Betances. He struck out Betts but Benintendi followed it up with a double to put two runners in scoring position. The Yankees opted to intentionally walk J.D. Martinez, which, even in hindsight, is what I would have done. Basically, better not to pitch to the literal scariest power hitter in the league in a crucial situation and hope for the best.

Up came Xander Bogaerts. Betances got the Sox shortstop to the 1-2 count and threw him a curveball. Bogaerts hit it deep into the center enough to score a run. Hicks, instead of trying for home, unleashed a laser to third to keep Benintendi at third. The ball bounced in front of Miguel Andujar, went past his glove and into the seats. That blunder allowed Benintendi to advance to home for a 8-6 Sox lead. Usually, the pitcher should be backing up the infielder receiving the throw from outfield, but Betances was caught in between home and third. To be fair, I don’t think Betances (as tall as he is) can defend this hop.

For the record, no, I don’t think there was anything wrong with what Boone did. It was simply the matter of putting your best relievers out there and them getting it done. Robertson/Green/Betances are capable of shutting down many lineups but they simply failed. Nothing much you can do as a manager when that’s the case.

On the other side, the Red Sox brought in the knuckleballer Steven Wright. As the famed hitting coach Charley Lau once said, there’s not a lot of ways to hit that pitch. Wright took the field from the fifth to seventh and yielded only one baserunner (Didi single in the seventh).

The Red Sox iced it – both the game and their champagne – with Aroldis Chapman on the mound. Chapman, understandably rusty after his first appearance since August 21 (so, about a month), allowed Devers and Bradley Jr. to reach with a single and walk respectively. However, he did strike out Sandy Leon and lined out Steve Pearce to become an out away from getting out of it with a two-run deficit. Mookie Betts said not so fast. He took a 84 mph slider inside – one of the worst from Chapman – and deposited it into the left field seats for a 11-6 Red Sox lead. The score stayed that way for good. Ryan Brasier and Craig Kimbrel shut down the Yankee offense for the rest of it to win the game and clinch the AL East.

Box score, highlights, standings and WPA

Here’s tonight’s game’s box score, video highlights, updated standings and the WPA.


Source: FanGraphs

Time to secure the top Wild Card spot. The Yankees will welcome the Orioles for the weekend for the final regular season series at the Boogie Down. Longtime Yankee CC Sabathia will take the mound against the former Yankee farmhand Yefry Ramirez.

Game 152: Tanaka Thursday

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(Presswire)

Good series so far. The Yankees won the first two games and remain mathematically alive in the AL East, and hey, that’s better than being eliminated. At some point the Red Sox will clinch the AL East title. Not letting them do it at Yankee Stadium has been pretty cool. A sweep tonight would be rad.

Masahiro Tanaka will take the mound tonight and he’s been the Yankees’ best pitcher for a while now. Since returning from his dual hamstring strains, he has a 2.39 ERA (2.94 FIP) in 12 starts, and he’s held opponents to a .239/.281/.382 batting line. Tanaka has turned every hitter he’s faced in his last dozen starts into Yangervis Solarte (.230/.282/.387). More of the same tonight would be appreciated. Here are the starting lineups:

New York Yankees
1. LF Andrew McCutchen
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. CF Aaron Hicks
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. SS Didi Gregorius
6. 3B Miguel Andujar
7. C Gary Sanchez
8. 1B Luke Voit
9. 2B Gleyber Torres

RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Boston Red Sox
1. DH Mookie Betts
2. LF Andrew Benintendi
3. RF J.D. Martinez
4. SS Xander Bogaerts
5. 2B Brock Holt
6. 3B Rafael Devers
7. 1B Blake Swihart
8. CF Jackie Bradley Jr.
9. C Christian Vazquez

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

Cool night with a nice breeze in New York. Postseason weather, I’d say. Tonight’s game is scheduled to begin at 7:05pm ET and you can watch on YES locally and MLB Network out-of-market. Enjoy the game.

The intangible impact of Aaron Judge

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(Presswire)

The narrative is oh so easy to construct. The day Aaron Judge was activated off the disabled list, the Yankees went out and clobbered the Blue Jays. In his first two games back in the starting lineup, they mounted a come-from-behind win over the Red Sox and then blew them out the next night. Aaron Judge is back, and the boys are fired up.

“I definitely think certain guys energize a situation, and I think — when we’re talking about Aaron — not only is he a special player, but he’s a special presence on your club,” said Aaron Boone earlier this week (video link). “I do believe there’s more impact there than potentially even his outstanding performance and we hope that’s the case. We hope that he can provide one of those intangible things you can’t always put your finger on. I certainly believe he’s one of those guys capable of that.”

The impact of Judge’s return on the field is obvious. He’s still shaking off the rust at the plate — Judge is 1-for-8 with a little flare single in his two games back as a hitter — but the potential for serious damage is there every time he steps in the box. Judge is an imposing figure at the plate. He’s also a quality right fielder and he’s bumped Brett Gardner to the bench, which is the best thing for the Yankees right now.

Off the field, measuring Judge’s impact is impossible, but that doesn’t mean that impact doesn’t exist. Judge was with the Yankees the entire time while rehabbing the wrist. He didn’t go to Tampa for a few weeks or anything like that. Judge remained with the Yankees, went on the road trips, and was in the dugout for every single game while on the disabled list. He was with the team, but he didn’t feel like he was with the team.

“Just not grinding with my team. That’s the biggest thing. That’s what I love to do,” said Judge earlier this week (video link) when asked what he missed most while on the disabled list. “Through the good times and the bad times, I want to be in the trenches with my guys. Missing out on that, the ups and downs, that’s what I missed the most.”

Even though he’s less than two full seasons into his big league career, Judge has clearly emerged as a leader for the Yankees. He’s great on the field, he’s ultra-accountable, and he has a squeaky clean image off the field. A controversy-free superstar and a key figure in the clubhouse. “I hate to put it on a second year player, but he is definitely one of the leaders here,” said Dellin Betances to Joel Sherman.

Is it a coincidence the Yankees beat up on the Blue Jays and Red Sox after Judge returned? Yeah, probably. Marco Estrada had been struggling for a while before going into last week’s start, and the Yankees didn’t do a whole lot before Neil Walker’s home run the other night. Last night could easily be chalked up to David Price doing what he normal does in Yankee Stadium. Those frustrating losses Saturday and Sunday still happened, after all.

That doesn’t mean Judge isn’t having an impact on the team with his mere presence, however. This is still baseball. You’re going to lose games and teams often look bad — sometimes very bad — when they lose. Judge is a baseball player. He’s not a miracle worker. His presence and return to the lineup can give the team confidence and an on-field boost, though that’s only part of the winning equation. He can only lead. Others have to follow.

It is far too early to discuss Judge as a potential captain — Derek Jeter was named captain in 2003 (!), his eighth MLB season and after four World Series rings — but he has captain qualities, I think. At least based on what I can tell as an outsider. He’s a go-to guy in the clubhouse, he seems to connect with literally everyone on the roster, and any message he tries to send gets backed up by his play. It can be easy to overstate a player’s intangibles and their impact, but it’s a real thing, and Judge has it.

“It’s tough when you’re not playing, to try to tell a guy who’s out there grinding his butt off, ‘Hey, come on, keep it up, let’s go,” when you’re sitting on the bench eating sunflower seeds and chewing gum. That’s kinda tough,” Judge added following his first game back in the lineup. “It’s a little easier to do that and kinda get into some guys when you’re out there fighting with them.”

RAB’s Minor League Awards for 2018

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The RailRiders went to the IL Championship Series for the third straight season. (Conor Foley on Twitter)

It was an eventful season in the farm system. With one exception, the various scouting publications all ranked the Yankees’ farm system as the second best in baseball coming into 2018, behind only the Braves. Atlanta tanked pretty hard for a few years to earn that top farm system ranking. (MLB.com was the exception. They ranked New York’s system as sixth best coming into the season.)

Now, seven months later, the farm system looks very different thanks to graduations and trades. Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar, the system’s top two position player prospects coming into the year, are now mainstays on the big league infield. Tyler Wade was the Opening Day second baseman, Jonathan Holder has assumed a vital bullpen role, and Domingo German held down a rotation spot for nearly two months.

The Yankees also dipped into their farm system at the trade deadline. The J.A. Happ, Lance Lynn, Zach Britton, and Andrew McCutchen deals sent away seven prospects and two other young big leaguers. Nine of my preseason top 30 prospects are no longer prospect-eligible. Four have graduated to the big leagues and five others were traded. That’s a lot of turnover.

The organization’s eight domestic minor league affiliates went a combined 399-399 this season. Exactly .500 for the system’s worst combined record in a long time. Fortunately minor league win-loss records have basically zero correlation to long-term big league success. Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton both qualified for the postseason, with the RailRiders falling one game short of their second International League championship in three years.

Now that the minor league postseason is over, it’s time to hand out some awards for the 2018 season. As always, these awards are subjective and completely meaningless. I have no authority whatsoever. This is just my look back at the minor league season and a recognition for those who played well. This isn’t any sort of top prospects list. It’s a best performers list regardless of prospect status.

Here are my 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 awards posts. Eleven years of these already. This is year 12. Crazy. Time to dive into this year’s minor league awards.

Minor League Player of the Year: RHP Mike King
When he came over from the Marlins in the Caleb Smith/Garrett Cooper roster clean-up trade over the winter, King was an unheralded right-hander who spent all of last season in Low-A. This season, his first with the Yankees, he shot up three levels and was one of the most dominant pitchers in the minors. King threw 161.1 innings this year — those 161.1 innings are the most in the farm system since veteran journeyman Ramon Ortiz (169.1) and organizational southpaw Shaeffer Hall (164.1) in 2012 — with a 1.79 ERA (2.76 FIP) and excellent strikeout (24.4%) and walk (4.7%) rates. He allowed five runs in 39 innings in six Triple-A starts to close out the regular season. Five-hundred-and-ten pitchers threw at least 100 innings in the minors this year. Among those 510 pitchers, King has the second lowest ERA and the 11th lowest FIP. His 152 strikeouts were 22nd most in the minors. Total dominance from start to finish. King went from easy-to-overlook offseason pickup to knocking on the big league door.

King. (Jason Farmer/Scranton Times-Tribune)

Minor League Hitter of the Year: OF Dom Thompson-Williams
Buying into the fly ball revolution worked wonders for Thompson-Williams, the team’s fifth round pick in 2016. Thompson-Williams decreased his fly ball rate from 49.7% last year to 42.2% this year and the result was a farm system leading 22 home runs with a .299/.363/.546 (157 wRC+) line in 415 plate appearances, almost all in High-A, with manageable strikeout (24.8%) and walk (8.0%) rates. Thompson-Williams ranked third in AVG, fourth in OBP, first in SLG, and first in OPS among the 28 players in the system with 300 plate appearances. His 157 wRC+ was 13th best among the 724 minor leaguers with 400 plate appearances this season. An out-of-nowhere great season for the former bonus pool saving mid-round pick. (Thompson-Williams signed for $250,000 in 2016. He was slotted for $341,000.)

Minor League Pitcher of the Year: LHP Justus Sheffield
For the sake of variety, the Player of the Year doesn’t get to double up as the Pitcher (or Hitter) of the Year. That’s always been my rule and that’s why Sheffield gets the nod over King here. Sheffield reached Triple-A as a 21-year-old this summer and was dominant, finishing with a 2.48 ERA (2.98 FIP) and a strong 25.9% strikeout rate in 116 innings around a relatively minor shoulder injury. His 10.5% walk rate was a bit too high, but Sheffield did go from 14 homers in 98 regular season innings last year to four homers in 116 innings this year. There were some excellent pitching performances in the system this year, starting with King. Sheffield was the best of the rest.

Breakout Player of the Year: RHP Deivi Garcia
Garcia’s evolution from raw stuff guy to talented strike-thrower was quick. The 19-year-old pitched at three levels this year, including making one spot start at Double-A, and he cut his walk rate from 12.0% in 2016-17 to 6.8% in 2018. Garcia threw 74 innings across those three levels and finished this season with a 2.55 ERA (2.60 FIP) and an excellent 35.5% strikeout rate. Over 900 pitchers threw at least 70 innings in the minors this summer (902, to be exact). Garcia had the fifth highest strikeout rate and the fourth highest K-BB%. Everyone above him in both strikeout rate and K-BB% is at least two years his elder. Garcia’s breakout at age 19 was even better than 19-year-old Luis Severino’s breakout in 2013.

Comeback Player of the Year: RHP Nelson Gomez
Not a good year for comeback players in the farm system. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga would’ve been a great candidate had his comeback year not been last year. RHP Clarke Schmidt came back from Tommy John surgery, though it was his pro debut more than a comeback season. So Gomez gets the nod almost by default. The 20-year-old hit a weak .128/.269/.174 (50 wRC+) in 27 rookie ball games last year and there were rumblings he’d quit baseball and gone home. Gomez returned this year and hit .213/.289/.425 (84 wRC+) in 58 games with Pulaski this year, which obviously isn’t great (or even good), though his eleven homers were fourth most in the rookie Appalachian League.

Bounceback Player of the Year (started slow, finished strong): OF Trey Amburgey
Amburgey had a bit of a weird season. He finished the year quite strong, though his overall season stat line never seemed to move. He finished the year with a .258/.300/.418 (97 wRC+) batting line to go with 16 homers and 12 steals (in 14 attempts) in 125 Double-A games. Amburgey bottomed out at .228/.267/.383 (78 wRC+) on June 6th, through 49 games. He had six homers and three steals in those 49 games. In his final 76 games, he hit .276/.319/.439 (109 wRC+) with ten homers and nine steals. That is the essence of the Bounceback Player of the Year award right there. Start slow, adjust, finish strong.

Best Pro Debut: OF Antonio Cabello
The Best Pro Debut award typically goes to a recent draftee because rarely does an international player come stateside one year after signing his first pro contract. Cabello is not most international signees. The Yankees gave the 17-year-old Cabello a $1.35M bonus with their leftover Shohei Ohtani money last offseason and turned him loose in the rookie Gulf Coast League this year. He hit .308/.427/.522 (168 wRC+) with nine doubles, five triples, five home runs, and ten steals in 46 games. His walk (14.1%) and strikeout (20.8%) rates were quite strong as well. Over 2,400 players batted at least 180 times in the minors this season and Cabello ranked 24th in wRC+. Twenty of the 23 players ahead of him are older.

Most Disappointing Player of the Year: OF Isiah Gilliam
Tough year for Gilliam, who followed up last season’s breakout with a .259/.313/.397 (103 wRC+) batting line and 13 home runs in 125 games with High-A Tampa. That’s not terrible by any means, but for a bat-first corner outfielder with not much defensive value, it ain’t good. Gilliam hit .275/.356/.468 (137 wRC+) with Low-A Charleston last season and was unable to build on it this year. His strikeout and walk rates declined from 21.7% and 10.8% last year, respectively, to 29.0% and 6.9% this year.

All-Minor League Teams

First Team Second Team Third Team
Catcher Jason Lopez Francisco Diaz Anthony Seigler
First Base Brandon Wagner Ryan McBroom Dermis Garcia
Second Base Billy Fleming Bruce Caldwell L.J. Mazzilli
Shortstop Hoy Jun Park Tyler Wade Diego Castillo
Third Base Mandy Alvarez Jose Villa Nelson Gomez
Outfield Dom Thompson-Williams Antonio Cabello Pablo Olivares
Outfield Clint Frazier Zack Zehner Trey Amburgey
Outfield Estevan Florial Alex Palma Mark Payton
Starting Pitcher Mike King Erik Swanson Nick Nelson
Starting Pitcher Justus Sheffield Deivi Garcia Trevor Stephan
Starting Pitcher Garrett Whitlock Nick Green Roansy Contreras
Relief Pitcher Phil Diehl Joe Harvey Raynel Espinal
Relief Pitcher Stephen Tarpley Matt Wivinis Jordan Foley

Lifetime Achievement Award: RHP Brady Lail
Lail has yet to reach the big leagues — that’s sort of the point of this award, to honor a player still plugging along in the minors — and he likely never will with the Yankees given the fact he will become a minor league free agent after the season. Despite that, he is a remarkable player development story. In 2012 the Yankees made him their 18th round pick out of a Salt Lake City high school. Utah’s not exactly a baseball hotbed, you know.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) wrote in their pre-draft scouting report that Lail “usually settles into the 85-88 mph range” with his fastball, but the “hand speed is there,” which indicated he had the laxity to make the ball spin. The Yankees had to teach him basically everything. A proper delivery, a proper fastball, a proper curveball, help him develop a plan on the mound. The works. They drafted a ball of clay and molded Lail into a pitcher.

Lail. (Scranton Times-Tribune)

Lail’s climb up the minor league ladder was not as gradual as you may expect given his general rawness out of the draft. He was drafted in 2012 and he reached Triple-A as a 21-year-old in 2015, and he’s split the 2016-18 seasons between Double-A and Triple-A. Lail worked as a starter up until this year, when the Yankees moved him to the bullpen full-time to see whether he could help at the MLB level in that role.

The move to the bullpen didn’t help much this year (5.43 ERA and 4.65 FIP) and, in six and a half pro seasons, the just turned 25-year-old Lail has a 3.98 ERA (3.82 FIP) with serviceable strikeout (17.5%) and walk (7.0%) rates in 691.2 innings. That doesn’t sound great, but keep in mind most raw cold weather prep pitchers rarely make it this far. Jordan Cote, the Yankees’ third rounder out of a New Hampshire high school in 2011, threw only 129 minor league innings before being released. Canadian Dayton Dawe, selected three rounds before Lail in 2012, lasted 52.1 minor league innings.

In addition to having a great spoonerism name (Lady Brail!), Lail deserves a ton of credit for getting to where he is today. He came to the Yankees with some natural ability and had to work hard to become a successful professional pitcher, one who reached the highest level of minor league baseball at age 21 and earned three non-roster invitations to big league Spring Training (2016-18). Lail is one of the longest tenured players in the organization and he’s been an occasional prospect/quality organizational player for the better part of a decade now.

The Yankees were active at the trade deadline and so far all their moves are having a big impact

by

Cutch. (Presswire)

At some point soon, possibly before the end of the homestand, the Yankees will clinch a spot in the postseason. They’re not going to win the AL East — the Yankees need to go no worse than 10-1 the rest of the way while the Red Sox go 0-10 for that to happen — so a spot in the Wild Card Game will have to do. That’s okay. Just get in and you can win.

The Yankees have the third best record in baseball and they’re going to return to the postseason for a lot of reasons, including this year’s trade deadline pickups. The incumbents have been pretty good! But they needed help, so Brian Cashman and his staff were very active prior to both the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline and the August 31st postseason-eligibility deadline. They imported:

  • Two new starting pitchers (J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn).
  • A new first baseman (Luke Voit).
  • Another late-inning reliever (Zach Britton).
  • A new leadoff hitter and corner outfielder (Andrew McCutchen).

The Yankees also added a new utility infielder (Adeiny Hechavarria) and gobs of international bonus money at the deadline(s), though those are relatively minor additions. The other moves were much more significant. The Yankees turned over 40% of the rotation, two starting lineup spots, and added another end-game arm.

And, so far, just about all of those moves are paying big dividends. Lynn has been more serviceable than good, but, considering who he replaced (Sonny Gray), serviceable qualifies as a big upgrade. Happ has been outstanding in eight of his nine starts, including two nights ago against the Red Sox. Voit socked two more dingers last night and has nine in 29 games with the Yankees.

I don’t know whether they’d admit it, but I know Cashman and Aaron Boone and everyone else in the organization did not expect Voit to have this much impact. If they did, he wouldn’t have been sent to Triple-A Scranton (twice). Greg Bird was struggling, Voit got an opportunity, and he’s run with it. Voit went from first base platoon option to full-time first baseman. He’s given the lineup a huge lift.

Britton had a rocky start to his Yankees tenure but has really settled in lately. He’s allowed three runs (two earned) in his last 13 appearances and 14 innings while holding opponents to a .149/.180/.213 batting line. Britton has an 80.6% ground ball rate with the Yankees. That works out to 50 ground balls and 12 non-ground balls among 62 balls in play. He came in handy when Aroldis Chapman went down.

To me, McCutchen has been every bit as important as Happ and Voit and Britton. He only just got here, I know, but the Yankees had a revolving door in right field while Aaron Judge was on the disabled list, and McCutchen put an end to that. Now, with Judge back, he’s slid over to left field to replace the ineffective Brett Gardner, giving the Yankees another offensive threat. I love Gardner, he’s been a great Yankee, but it wasn’t working and a change had to made.

Last night McCutchen reached base three times in the blowout win over the Red Sox and he’s reached base 24 times in his last eleven games. The batting average is still a little low (.216), but McCutchen owns a .414 OBP as a Yankees, and that has been a game-changer atop the lineup. The leadoff spot (mostly Gardner) had a .205/.319/.298 (72 wRC+) batting line in 40 games from the All-Star break through August 31st. Can’t have that. McCutchen fixed it.

“It doesn’t have to be splashy. It just has to work,” said Cashman following the July 31st deadline. And so far, every just about every move the Yankees made has worked. Happ has steadied the rotation and forms a potentially very good postseason front three with the locked in Masahiro Tanaka and the seemingly rejuvenated Luis Severino. Britton makes the bullpen better and McCutchen and Voit have made the lineup that much deeper.

Keep in mind that, unlike some other teams, the Yankees were active at the trade deadline because they had to be. The Red Sox were in great shape and were able to add pieces like Nathan Eovaldi and Ian Kinsler to make their roster even better. The Yankees were more desperate for upgrades. Judge was hurt, Gray and Domingo German were becoming untenable, so was Bird, and Chapman’s achy knee was in the back of everyone’s mind. These were “we really need these guys to contend” moves. Not just upgrades to the fringes of the roster, you know?

Unlike last year, when they targeted players with long-term control, the Yankees focused on rentals this year. That’s probably just a coincidence given the way he market shook out, though I wonder whether getting burned by Gray (and Tommy Kahnle, to some degree) led to the Yankees looking for lower cost short-term moves. Either way, it’s worked quite well. The Yankees don’t really miss anyone they gave up — maybe they will one day, but right now? nah — and the players they received have all become important contributors. The trade deadline was a smashing success.