River Avenue Blues

DotF: Estrada, Florial wrap up disappointing AzFL season for Yankees’ prospects

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The 2018 Arizona Fall League season came to an end this past Saturday. Braves 1B Braxton Davidson hit a walk-off home run in Saturday’s Championship Game … and broke his foot rounding the bases. For real. That’s rough. Hopefully he’ll be healed up and ready to go come Spring Training. Anyway, the Peoria Javelinas beat the Salt River Rafters in the title game. Yankees’ prospects played for the Glendale Desert Dogs this year. Glendale went 12-18 and had the second worst record in the six-team league. Here are some offseason minor league notes:

  • Turns out IF Thairo Estrada had surgery this summer to remove the bullet from his hip, reports Lindsey Adler (subs. req’d). Estrada was shot during a robbery last offseason. Adler says the initial emergency surgery was botched. Estrada was on the disabled list with a back injury when he decided to have another procedure to remove the bullet in June, this time with the Yankees overseeing things. Huh. It was successful. Thairo is recovered now and played in the AzFL.
  • Triple-A Scranton manager Bobby Mitchell will not be back next season. DJ Eberle reports the Yankees decided not to renew his contract. “I’m not really sure why or whatever. It happens. I was a little surprised, obviously. I’m not really sure. I didn’t get much of an explanation. I enjoyed my time there. So I was disappointed,” said Mitchell. Mitchell had been with the Yankees since 2016. No word on the new Triple-A manager yet. Might be a few weeks.
  • Matt Eddy has the full list of minor league free agents. Nine Yankees’ prospects hit the open market: IF Daniel Barrios, LHP Havid Burgos, IF Bruce Caldwell, C Wilkin Castillo, LHP Chaz Hebert, IF Rey Navarro, C Chace Numata, IF Victor Rey, and C Jorge Saez. Hebert, who’s been limited by injuries the last few years, is by far the most notable of the bunch. The Yankees have re-signed minor league free agents IF Gio Urshela and C Francisco Diaz, reports Eddy.
  • The Yankees released OF Quintin Berry, reports Eddy. They acquired him in a cash trade in August and it seemed the Yankees would call him up to be their designated September pinch-runner, but that never happened. On Twitter, Berry announced he’s retiring as a player and has taken a minor league coaching role with the Brewers.

Arizona Fall League

  • IF Thairo Estrada: 19 G, 19-for-80 (.238), 9 R, 2 2B, 7 RBI, 4 BB, 15 K, 1 CS, 1 HBP (.238/.282/.263) — not a good showing at all, but I’m inclined to give him a pass after the whole “he got shot in January and didn’t have the bullet removed until June” thing … hopefully Thairo has a good, shooting-free offseason and can pick up where he left off last year in 2019
  • OF Estevan Florial: 21 G, 13-for-73 (.178), 10 R, 2 2B, 2 3B, 8 RBI, 12 BB, 29 K, 2 SB, 1 CS (.178/.294/.260) — he went 1-for-1 with a triple and a walk in the Fall Stars game … video of the triple is at the top of the post … otherwise a pretty crummy AzFL season for Florial
  • 1B Steven Sensley: 21 G, 15-for-76 (.197), 4 R, 3 2B, 1 3B, 9 RBI, 4 BB, 26 K, 1 CS, 2 HBP (.197/.256/.263) — he played 15 games at first base and six at DH in the AzFL after playing only one of his final 34 regular season games in the outfield, so it seems he’s a full-time first baseman now … Sensley was an okay prospect as a corner outfielder and he’s a fringe prospect at first base … the offensive potential bar is awfully high to be a legitimate prospect at first base
  • RHP Jordan Foley: 7 G, 7 GS, 19.2 IP, 20 H, 20 R, 20 ER, 19 BB, 20 K, 2 HR, 1 HB, 2 WP (9.15 ERA and 1.98 WHIP) — the good news? he didn’t have the worst numbers among Yankees pitchers in the AzFL
  • RHP Hobie Harris: 9 G, 15 IP, 14 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 7 BB, 16 K, 1 HR, 2 WP (4.20 ERA and 1.40 WHIP)
  • RHP Matt Wivinis: 11 G, 12 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 6 BB, 14 K, 1 HB, 1 WP (1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP) — two of the six AzFL parks are equipped with Statcast and somehow he managed to pitch in neither this year … he’s supposed to be a big spin rate guy and I was hoping to get some numbers, but alas … bummer
  • RHP Kyle Zurak: 9 G, 9.1 IP, 16 H, 15 R, 12 ER, 10 BB, 3 K, 3 HR, 3 WP (11.57 ERA and 2.79 WHIP) — about as bad an AzFL performance as I can remember … what a crap year AzFL season for the Yankees

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The Traded Middle Relievers [2018 Season Review]

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Shreve. (Elsa/Getty)

Although there were a few hiccups along the way, the bullpen was an overwhelming strength for the Yankees in 2018. Dellin Betances was dominant in the eighth inning and David Robertson, Chad Green, and Jonathan Holder were very effective in the sixth and seventh innings. Aroldis Chapman was as good as he’s ever been, at least when his knee wasn’t acting up.

The high-leverage relievers get all the glory. Many games are won and lost in the middle innings though, especially nowadays with starters throwing fewer innings than ever. Those fifth and sixth inning situations are every bit as important as the eighth and ninth innings. And, for much of this year, lefty Chasen Shreve and righty Adam Warren handled those middle innings for the Yankees.

Warren and Shreve started the 2018 season as, at best, the fifth and sixth best relievers in the bullpen. They finished the 2018 season in other uniforms. Warren and Shreve were traded roughly 43 hours apart in the days leading up to the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline and they were traded for very different reasons. Let’s review their half-seasons in pinstripes.

Chasen Shreve

Shreve joined the Yankees almost four years ago in a January 2015 trade with the Braves. Former top prospect Manny Banuelos went to Atlanta for Shreve and David Carpenter. Feels like a lifetime ago, doesn’t it? Shreve went up-and-down (mostly up) from 2015-17 before running out of minor league options and having to stick for good in 2018.

2018 Performance: Much like 2015-17, the 2018 season featured stretches of dominance and stretches where Shreve was simply unplayable. He carried a 0.00 ERA into early May and held opponents to a .156/.240/.289 batting line with 16 strikeouts in his first 12 innings. That was one of those “hey maybe he’s back to where he was in the first half of 2015” stretches. It didn’t last. It never did with Shreve.

On May 4th, Shreve faced four Indians batters, allowed all four to reach base, and was charged with four earned runs. That 0.00 ERA became a 3.75 ERA in the span of 16 pitches. Shreve was okay for a few weeks after that before the wheels came off in late May. Two runs on May 23rd. Two more runs on May 26th. Six runs in 7.1 innings spanning eight appearances from June 13th to June 30th.

Shreve took a 4.97 ERA (5.51 FIP) into July. He’d thrown 29 innings. Aaron Boone limited to Shreve to low leverage work in July — only twice in nine July outings did Shreve enter with the score separated by fewer than three runs — and he finished the Yankees portion of his season with a 4.26 ERA (4.98 FIP) with 27.1% strikeouts and 10.6% walks in 38 innings. The strikeouts were nice. The overall body of work was as close to replacement level as it gets.

Signature Moment™: This is easy. It was July 21st against the Mets. Chapman needed work after a long layoff during the All-Star break, so he entered the ninth inning with a four-run lead. His inning went walk, single, walk, walk, hit-by-pitch. Five batters, 19 pitches, three strikes. Two runs were in and the Mets had the bases loaded with no outs. Betances, Robertson, and Holder all pitched earlier in the game and Green had a long outing the previous day, so he was unavailable.

Boone had two options. He could stick with Chapman or go to Shreve. Sticking with Chapman did not seem wise given the way he was throwing. Shreve it was. Chasen inherited the bases loaded with no outs situation, and nailed down the save with a 4-3 double play and a tapper back in front of the plate. Ex-frickin-hale.

That was career save No. 2 for Shreve. (He saved an extra innings game in Kansas City in 2016.) It was also his third-to-last appearance as a Yankee. He faced five batters and allowed three hits on July 26th and faced five batters and allowed one run on July 28th. That July 28th appearance came in the first game of a doubleheader. Shreve was traded after the second game of the day.

Why Was He Traded? The Yankees acquired J.A. Happ from the Blue Jays on July 26th and, at the time, they Yankees were carrying four starters and nine relievers. A reliever had to go to make room for Happ and it was either Shreve or A.J. Cole. Cole was pitching pretty well at the time, remember. The writing had been on the wall for weeks. The only question was either Shreve would be traded or designated for assignment.

Following that July 28th doubleheader the Yankees traded Shreve (and Gio Gallegos) to the Cardinals for Luke Voit (and international bonus money). Happ had his roster spot and the Yankees had a right-handed hitting first baseman to replace Tyler Austin, who would soon to be traded to the Twins. Shreve was very emotional after the deal was announced.

Rough. Players love being Yankees. They rarely want to leave. Shreve had been with the team for three and a half years and had grown close with many teammates. It’s a business though, and if you don’t perform, teams will find guys who do. The fact Shreve’s a lefty who can miss bats meant he had some trade value and wasn’t simply cast aside on waivers.

What’d He Do After The Trade? Typical Chasen Shreve stuff. He threw 14.2 innings with a 3.07 ERA for St. Louis but man, the peripherals were ugly: 24.6% strikeouts, 13.9% walks, 20.5% ground balls, and a 1.84 HR/9 for a 5.48 FIP. Shreve finished the 2018 season with a 3.93 ERA (5.12 FIP) in 52.2 innings total. He is arbitration-eligible for the second time as a Super Two this offseason and MLBTR projects a $1.2M salary in 2019. I could see him being non-tendered at that salary.

Yankee Legacy: Shreve was legitimately excellent for the first four months of 2015. Remember that? He had a 1.89 ERA (3.86 FIP) in 52.1 innings before things fell apart in September. Shreve and the Yankees then spent 2016-18 chasing that 2015 success. He finished his Yankees career with a 3.92 ERA (4.99 FIP) in 174.2 innings. That’s good for +1.8 WAR. There were some moments of greatness, but, by and large, we spent the last few years wondering how many more chances Shreve would get.

Adam Warren

Unlike Shreve, Warren was an original Yankees draft pick. They took him in the fourth round in the 2009 draft. He’d been teammates with future big leaguers Matt Harvey, Dustin Ackley, and Kyle Seager at UNC. The Yankees traded Warren to the Cubs for Starlin Castro in December 2015, realized they couldn’t live without him, then reacquired him in the Chapman trade at the 2016 deadline.

Warren. (Hunter Martin/Getty)

2018 Performance: In his very first appearance of the 2018 season, Warren took a comebacker to the right ankle and was put on the shelf for a few days. Then, in late April, he went down with a back problem that sidelined him a little more than six weeks. It was during that six-week absence that Cole seemingly emerged as a reliable multi-inning middle reliever. That jack of all trades reliever.

Around the ankle and back injuries Warren had a typical Adam Warren season. He threw 30 innings with the Yankees and posted a 2.70 ERA (3.29 FIP) with strikeout (28.9%) and walk (9.4%) rates that ranked among the highest of his career. The Yankees got Warren to buy into the anti-fastball philosophy — he threw more sliders (45.4%) than fastballs (38.9%) before the trade — and the strikeouts ticked up.

Warren was the Swiss Army Knife reliever under Boone the same way he was under Joe Girardi. He entered games in the third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, and ninth (and 12th) innings and in just about every situation. High leverage, low leverage, you name it. The back injury cost him six weeks. Otherwise Warren was very effective and used pretty much whenever needed. Can’t beat that kind of versatility.

Signature Moment™: Eh, Warren didn’t really have a signature moment this season. Certainly nothing like Shreve bailing out Chapman. How often do middle relievers have signature moments anyway? I guess Warren’s signature moment came on July 8th. With the score tied 1-1 and the bullpen a little short due to recent workloads, Warren threw scoreless seventh and eighth innings in Toronto to set the Yankees up for a tenth inning win.

At +0.193 WPA, it was Warren’s most impactful game of the season. Not the greatest highlight, I know, but two scoreless and thankless innings in a win is about as Adam Warren as it gets.

Why Was He Traded? We all knew Shreve was a goner. The Warren trade was a surprise and it was part of a series of moves. First, the Yankees traded Shreve for Voit, which gave them right-handed hitting first base depth. That allowed them to trade Austin for Lance Lynn. And, with Lynn on-board as a multi-inning relief option, the Yankees traded Warren straight up for international bonus money. Specifically $1.25M from the Mariners.

There were a few layers to this. For starters, it was a salary offset. The Twins paid half Lynn’s remaining salary and dumping Warren made the Lynn pickup salary neutral. That was not a small thing given the luxury tax plan. And two, the Yankees wanted someone better able to move into the rotation, if necessary, and it turned out to be necessary thanks to Sonny Gray. Lynn was stretched out to 100 pitches. Warren was not.

“Adam Warren was probably going to give us no more than 20 innings the rest of the way before free agency. It gave us a chance if we could make this all work — the price tag of what it would cost to import Lynn and then cash in and capitalize on value left on Warren — we would try to do it all,” said Brian Cashman after the trade (video link). “… We were able to trade Warren to the Mariners for slot money. That whole combination allowed us to (max out our international bonus pool).”

The Yankees immediately turned around and used the Warren bonus money to sign Cuban shortstop Alexander Vargas to a $2.5M bonus. Vargas was one of the top international prospects on the market and Cashman said Vargas was likely going to sign with a “big market team out west” had the Yankees not brought in more bonus money through the Warren trade. (The Dodgers were the only West Coast team not limited to the $300,000 maximum bonus as a result of past international spending, so I assume that’s where Vargas would’ve gone.)

So, to wrap that all up, the Yankees traded Warren for three reasons. One, they wanted a pitcher better able to step into the rotation in Lynn. Two, they wanted to offset Lynn’s salary. And three, they wanted the international bonus money to sign Vargas. Trading a quality multi-inning reliever to a fellow AL contender (the Mariners were in wildcard position the day of the Warren trade) seemed awfully weird, especially since the Yankees had a more disposable reliever in Cole and appeared to have the payroll room to keep Warren and add Lynn, but whatever.

What’d He Do After The Trade? Meh. Warren threw 21.2 innings with a 3.74 ERA (4.82 FIP) with the Mariners as they crashed out of the postseason race. He was fine. Not great, not terrible. He was fine. Warren with the Yankees: 3.18 ERA (3.61 FIP) and +7.6 WAR in 407 innings. Warren with the Cubs and Mariners: 5.08 ERA (5.42 FIP) and -0.4 WAR in 56.2 innings. He can’t can only handle New York!

Yankee Legacy: Warren is the closest thing the Yankees have had to Ramiro Mendoza since Ramiro Mendoza. He was the rubber-armed do-it-all reliever. Warren was never the team’s best reliever. Heck, he never their second or third best reliever, but he was as steady and reliable as middle relievers come. I’ll always remember Warren’s three-inning appearance the night the Yankees clinched a postseason spot in 2015. The bullpen had been worked hard in previous days and Warren stepped in to throw scoreless sixth, seventh, and eighth innings with a small lead.

That was Adam Warren the last few years. He did whatever the Yankees needed for however many innings the Yankees needed. From 2013-18, his +7.2 WAR made him a top 25 reliever in baseball, and remember, he was at +7.6 WAR with the Yankees. Warren was rock solid and seemingly perpetually underappreciated. He’s a free agent this winter and I guess a reunion is possible, but it seems unlikely. The Yankees got the best years of his career and they’ll likely let someone else pay for his decline.

The Yanks have spoken to the A’s and Reds about Sonny Gray and it seems a trade could happen soon

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(Elsa/Getty)

The 2018-19 offseason is still very young and we’re all still waiting to see how the Yankees will replace Didi Gregorius and upgrade their rotation. How they’ll do it, we don’t know. It’s still a mystery and that’s part of the fun. There is one part of the offseason that is not a mystery, however: Sonny Gray’s future. He’s getting traded. Brian Cashman couldn’t have made it any clearer.

“We are going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in the Bronx. I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results,” said Cashman to Joel Sherman earlier this month. “There are enough teams that think highly enough of him … He is not a buy-low guy. All the data says he is not. He’ll be a good pitcher wherever he goes.”

Despite what Cashman said, Gray is a buy-low guy — a pitcher with Sonny’s resume coming off a bad year is the quintessential buy-low guy — and Jon Morosi reports the Athletics and Reds are trying to buy-low on him. The Yankees have spoken to both Oakland and Cincinnati about Sonny. Andy Martino adds there are “multiple offers” on the table and Cashman & Co. are currently sifting through them. Let’s talk this out a bit.

1. Does this pass the sniff test? Yeah, it does. When you first hear a rumor, it’s always good to take a step back and ask whether it makes sense, and this does. The A’s desperately need rotation help. They didn’t have anyone to start the Wild Card Game and, with Trevor Cahill a free agent and Sean Manaea likely to miss next season following shoulder surgery, their rotation depth chart looks like this:

  1. Mike Fiers
  2. Daniel Mengden
  3. Frankie Montas
  4. Chris Bassitt
  5. Andrew Triggs

Yup, the A’s need rotation help. They’re not winning a free agent bidding war for Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel and they’re probably not going to empty the farm system for James Paxton or Corey Kluber. Gray might be their best hope to acquire a potential impact starter. Oakland certainly knows Sonny and I’ve heard they asked about him at the trade deadline, but the Yankees weren’t ready to move on. There’s a fit now. Definitely.

As for the Reds, they don’t seem to make sense as a trade partner on the surface. The A’s won 97 games this past season and could contend next year. The Reds lost 95 games this past season and aren’t a move or two away from making a run at the NL Central title. Trading for one year of Sonny Gray doesn’t seem to fit the long-term plan, but GM Dick Williams recently said he wants to add two pitchers and he’s ready to be aggressive.

“I think we need to add two pitchers,” said Williams during a recent radio interview according to Bobby Nightengale. “I think this year we feel like we need to be a little more aggressive than (sitting back and waiting for bargains late in the offseason). By no means does it mean you can make sure you get a deal done but you have to be in front of these agents and these other teams talking more aggressively.”

The Reds definitely need rotation help and they may see Gray as an opportunity to add a just turned 29-year-old with upside that they may be able to sign long-term. Also, their new pitching coach Derek Johnson was Sonny’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt. Johnson left the Brewers for the Reds a few weeks ago, so there’s a connection there. The Reds have some added insight into Gray. Trading for one year of Gray may seem weird, but it’s not the craziest thing in the world.

(Mitchell Layton/Getty)

2. Tomorrow may be a “soft” deadline. Tomorrow is the deadline for teams to set their 40-man roster for the Rule 5 Draft. The Yankees have two open 40-man spots right now and no significant prospects to protect. Justus Sheffield, Chance Adams, and Stephen Tarpley were added to the 40-man during the season. Erik Swanson, Kyle Holder, and Nick Green are the notables who could be protected tomorrow. Maybe there will be a surprise a la Jonathan Loaisiga last year.

If the Yankees need to clear 40-man space tomorrow I imagine Ben Heller, Hanser Alberto, and Kyle Higashioka are most at risk of losing their spots. The Yankees could also kill two birds with one stone with Gray. He’s getting traded at some point, we know that, and trading him before the roster deadline tomorrow gets the trade out of the way and also clears a 40-man roster spot for someone else. See? Nice and easy.

Except it’s probably not that simple. There’s a decent chance the Yankees will get a 40-man roster player back in the inevitable Gray trade, so it’s hardly a lock a trade opens a roster spot. The Yankees have to get the best talent back regardless of roster status. They shouldn’t take non-40-man roster players in return just to make the 40-man situation easier. Trading Sonny won’t necessary open a 40-man spot.

That said, it takes two to tango, and the teams that want Gray may have some players on the 40-man roster bubble they want to move. It could be a player they’re considering cutting to clear a 40-man spot or a player not on the 40-man who is Rule 5 Draft eligible. Did you catch the Aledmys Diaz trade over the weekend? The Blue Jays sent Diaz to the Astros for a Rule 5 Draft eligible pitching prospect Houston was probably going to leave exposed. Something like that could play into the Gray trade. We’ll see.

3. The non-tender deadline probably doesn’t matter. Gray is projected to make $9.1M in 2019 and that’s a lot. More than I expected given his $6.5M salary in 2018. He has his career accomplishments to thank for that projected raise, not his 2018 performance. The non-tender deadline is next Friday, November 30th, and I suppose it’s possible the Yankees could non-tender Gray if they’re worried about getting stuck with his salary next year. That salary could create some headaches if they want to stay under the $206M luxury tax threshold.

I don’t think that’s going to happen though. There seems to be enough trade interest in Sonny right now that, even if the Yankees don’t get a deal worked out by next Friday, they could hang on to Gray and feel confident in getting a trade done later in the offseason. Serious non-tender candidates rarely draw trade interest because teams know they can wait and scoop them up as free agents. That’s not the case with Gray. There’s real interest from multiple teams. Tomorrow’s 40-man roster deadline could push things along. I don’t think the non-tender deadline will. Sonny’s not getting non-tendered.

4. Hooray for a bidding war! The more teams involved, the better. Gray’s value isn’t sky high but I do think he’ll fetch a better return than you might think given his terrible season. He’s young, he’s healthy, he has a strong track record, and he pitched much better away from Yankee Stadium in 2018. The Reds and A’s are interested and I reckon other teams are as well. The more teams with interest, the better it is for the Yankees. It can help drive up the price.

What do the A’s and Reds have to offer, specifically? I’ve had a few people ask me about Gray for Scooter Gennett and I just can’t see that. Surely the Reds could do better than one year of a reclamation project starter for their All-Star second baseman, right? Cincinnati has some interesting bullpen arms (Amir Garrett, Cody Reed) who could fit. I’m not sure Oakland has any MLB players to entice the Yankees. That might have to be a Gray for prospects deal. Point is, at least two teams are involved, so there’s something of a bidding war. That is nothing but good news for the Yankees.

Fan Confidence Poll: November 19th, 2018

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2018 Regular Season Record: 100-62 (851 RS, 669 RA, 98-64 expected record), second in ALE
2018 Postseason Record: 2-3 (22 RS, 29 RA), won WC Game, lost ALDS

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea how confident you are in the Yankees. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the Features tab in nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
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Plan B

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Ah, what might have been… (Elsa/Getty Images)

While little has happened in terms of hot stove action, the Yankees are still poised for a seminal offseason. If they sign Manny Machado and Bryce Harper and Patrick Corbin and…there will be ripple effects on the franchise for years, even a decade to come. The same will be true if the Yankees don’t go big and opt not to sign all or any of those players. I’ve been clear that I want the team to flex its financial muscles and go, in Brian Cashman’s words, ‘big game hunting,’ but I have my doubts that it will happen. Let’s say my doubts aren’t unfounded and my Plan A of “sign the hell out of everyone” doesn’t come true. What’s my Plan B look like?

I suppose I should acknowledge that my Plan B would probably be the Plan A for most organizations, but given the financial resources of the Yankees, their Plan B could be more expensive.

If Machado and Harper are the main parts of Plan A, their Plan be coutnerparts should both be from the infield and the outfield respectively. How about Marwin Gonzalez and Michael Brantley? Gonzalez features a league average bat and he can play all over the place, both infield and outfield. This sort of versatility will be good for the Yankees once Didi Gregorius returns from injury. I considered Jed Lowrie for this spot, but he will likely get a chance to start at second all year instead of having to settle for being a backup or supersub when Didi gets back. Gonzalez is a bit more suited for that role.

Even though the Yankees brought back Brett Gardner and he could start, they’re not paying him starter money and he’s probably not of that caliber anymore. Enter Michael Brantley. He reestablished himself last year, playing in 143 games, hitting to the tune of a 124 wRC+. He may not bring a ton of power–career .135 ISO–but he has an acceptable career walk rate (7.8%) and a low strikeout rate (10.7%) and would give the Yankees stability at the bottom of the lineup. Gardner could still be a suitable defensive caddie for Brantley in the later innings, too.

This next move should be part of Plan A, but I’ll include it here as it might be superfluous if the Yankees do get Harper and Machado: swing a trade for Carlos Santana of the Phillies. Greg Bird can’t be trusted at first and without the presence of Harper and/or Machado, the Yankees can’t afford to gamble on Luke Voit repeating–or approximating–his late 2018 run. Santana is a steady offensive presence who offers patience, power, and a relatively low strikeout rate for a guy with a .195 career ISO. While he’s older and more expensive than the incumbent(s), he’s a safer bet to produce at a high level. Add in some DH days for health and you’ll have an even more productive player (who already plays 155+ games a year).

On the pitching side, Corbin is definitely Plan A, as would be swinging a trade for Cory Kluber or Carlos Carrasco. The only thing left to do, really, would be re-sign JA Happ. I don’t really love any of the other options, unless you could entice Charlie Morton to come on over. For a moment, I thought about keeping Sonny Gray, but I don’t see any way that happens, even if he is a great bounceback candidate.

If the Yankees have to go with a Plan B, it probably makes the most sense to go with the pitching side of things. That needs more improvement than the lineup. However, again, there’s no reason the Yankees can’t go with a Plan A approach. They have the money. They have the space. Get it done.

Put Mike Mussina in the Hall of Fame

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Moooooose. (Nick Laham/Getty)

Aside from a few scattered trade rumors, new comments from Hal Steinbrenner and the usual free agent speculation, it’s a been a quiet week in Yankeeland—exactly what we’d expect at this time in the offseason. That relative tranquility means it as good a time as ever to revive the annual argument that former Yankee Mike Mussina belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Mussina was an excellent Yankee, sporting a 3.88 ERA (114 ERA+) across 1,553 innings and eight seasons. He was a 5 win pitcher in four of those eight seasons. He is one of the best pitchers to don the pinstripes in recent history and is among the very best free agent signings the Yankees have ever made—a fact that would come up more were his tenure, like Jason Giambi’s, not sandwiched in between championships. Also like Giambi, he played a pivotal role in keeping the Yankees alive in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS and paved the way for Aaron Boone’s heroism.

Mussina will enter 2019 in his 6th year as a potential Hall of Fame inductee with the odds in his favor: players need to be named on 75 percent of the ballots and Mussina’s share has grown steadily each year he’s been eligible. He came closest last year when he was named on 268 ballots (63.5 percent of the vote) and if you scan this year’s cast, it becomes clear that many of his SP peers have candidacies riddled with controversy over either steroids or more grotesque reasons.

In other words, Mussina has a good chance to finally be enshrined in 2019.

His candidacy is a bit of a strange one because his numbers and accolades don’t immediately stand out: he never won a Cy Young or World Series, never led the league in strikeouts and only once led the league in ERA and wins (in separate years, nonetheless). Moreover, he was never truly the best pitcher in a league he shared with Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson. But a deeper dive does reveal that Moose is indeed deserving of Cooperstown.

Mussina was a consistently excellent pitcher for 18 seasons, pitched entirely in the steroid-era AL East, compiling 270 wins, 2,813 strikeouts, a 3.68 ERA (123 ERA+) and 83 career WAR. The latter number ranks higher than Nolan Ryan, Tom Glavine and Curt Schilling, for what it is worth. He was just shy of reaching the 300-win, 3,000 strikeout club, but he retired after a 20-win 2008 season.

In addition to his trademark knuckle-curve and competitive spirit, Mussina boasted a deep arsenal—including a 4 seam fastball, cutter, changeup and splitter—that he could locate with ease, walking only 5.4 percent of the 14,593 batters he faced (2 per 9 innings pitched). He struck out nearly 20 percent of those batters and conceded less than one home run per 9 innings pitched in the heart of the steroid era. His repertoire was unique and it was filthy, the engine beneath a long and dominant career as a pitcher in the most offense-heavy era in league history.

There is something to be said for consistent excellence, and for a 12-season stretch from 1992-2003, that’s exactly what he was. Mussina averaged 215 IP a year with a 3.55 ERA (128 ERA+) over that stretch. For good measure, he sprinkled in remarkably similar seasons to that standard in both 2006 and 2008, rounding out a career worthy of Cooperstown by finally winning 20 games in a season at age 39 in his final season.

Baseball-Reference’s Hall of Fame Scores highlight the disconnect between the fact that Moose was never the league’s best pitcher but was consistently excellent and among the best. The Black Ink score assigns a score for each category in which a player led the league in a particular year. The average Hall of Famer has a score of 40; Mussina 15. But its Gray Ink score, which does the same for each category in which a player was among the top 10 in a particular year, is much more favorable: Moose scores a 250 while the average Hall of Famer scores 185. Jay Jaffe’s JAWs method, another Baseball-Reference tool, ranks him 29th all-time among starters.

In other words, Mussina was always among the best but never the best himself. Falling just short, unfortunately, was a trait that plagued his entire career. Dominant postseasons with the Orioles went to waste, as they did with the Yankees—Mussina started Game 5 of the 2001 World Series to help give the Yankees a 3-2 lead and won Game 3 of the 2003 World Series to give the Yankees a 2-1 lead, but they didn’t win another game in either series. And he famously gave up a 9th inning, two out, two strike base hit to Carl Everett to blow a perfect game in Fenway Park.

Enshrining Mike Mussina in the Hall of Fame will do more than make those near misses and close calls sting (just a little) less. It would also ensure that he is permanently recognized for what he absolutely was: one of baseball’s very best pitchers.

The Yanks aren’t discussing an extension with Dellin Betances yet and it’s probably best they wait

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On an individual player level, the most satisfying part of the 2018 season to me was Dellin Betances going back to being Dellin freaking Betances. Betances was a deserving All-Star in 2017. It’s so easy to forget that. But his control deteriorated so much down the stretch that he was unusable late in the season and into the postseason. It was ugly.

This past season Betances corrected his mechanical flaws and got back to being one of the most dominant relievers in the game. One of the most dominant relievers of his generation, really. He’s right up there with Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen. Betances was great all season and, in the biggest moments in October, he was the guy Aaron Boone wanted on the mound.

Quite a turnaround from last season. Betances is on the short list of my all-time favorite Yankees and watching him rebound from that miserable finish last year to again be dominant this year felt awfully good. I’m happy for Betances personally and I’m happy for the Yankees too, because Good Dellin is about as impactful as a reliever can get. I hope he finishes his career in pinstripes and throws the pitch that clinches the team’s 28th World Series title.

Next season is Betances’ final season of team control (MLBTR projects a $6.4M salary) and, as seems customary with the Yankees, the two sides have not discussed a multi-year contract extension. The Yankees have been very stingy with extensions over the years. It’s not surprising they’ve yet to talk about a long-term deal with Dellin even at this point, with free agency a year away.

“One more year and he is a free agent. He has one more year of control and you can talk about one year or talk about multi-years. Nothing has transpired,” Brian Cashman said to George King earlier this week. “Dellin is a great Yankee and has done a tremendous job in all aspects. We haven’t had any discussions (about an extension)”

Betances gave the default “I’m focusing on next year” answer when asked about an extension — “I let (my agent) handle everything. I have to get ready for the upcoming season and help the team to win,” he said to King — but I assume he’d be open to the possibility. Everyone likes money, and if the Yankees want to give Dellin lots of money, I’m certain he’d at least hear them out.

While there’s always a number that makes sense, at this point, with free agency a year away, the best course of action for the Yankees may be to wait a year rather than sign Betances now. I mean, if he’s willing to take a sweetheart deal, they should jump all over it. But, historically, players who sign extensions one year before free agency get free agent dollars. There’s no discount. And here are last year’s notable free agent deals:

  • Wade Davis: Three years, $52M ($17.3M annually)
  • Brandon Morrow: Two years, $21M ($10.5M annually)
  • Bryan Shaw & Jake McGee: Three years, $27M ($9M annually)

That’s where the relief market is nowadays. Established closers are getting $17M per season. High-end reclamation project types are getting more than $10M annually. Good middle relievers and setup guys are at $9M a year. To me, Betances fits in somewhere between Morrow and Davis. As good as Morrow was in 2017, he was nearly out of baseball from 2013-16. Betances struggled late in 2017, for sure, but he was never as far down as Morrow.

The biggest reason to hold off on an extension with Betances is not necessarily the price. It’s the volatility. I love the guy. Like I said, Betances is an all-time favorite. But he is unpredictable and his 2017 control issues weren’t entirely out of character. He’s had control problems in the past — extreme control problems at that — and chances are he’ll have control problems again in the future. That’s just who he is. The control issues come and go.

And, with his 31st birthday a few weeks away, Betances is closing in on his inevitable decline years, and Dellin is a dude who needs his Grade-A stuff to succeed. He doesn’t outsmart hitters and paint the corners. He out-stuffs hitters. Any loss of stuff could take a significant bite out of his effectiveness. Waiting a year for an extension buys the Yankees more time to evaluate a very volatile reliever. How’s the stuff look now that he’s in his 30s? Is the control holding up? So on and so forth.

Again, there’s always a point where an extension makes sense now. If Betances and his representatives go to the Yankees today and say they’ll take the Shaw/McGee contract because he wants peace of mind, great, do it. But, if he’s holding out for something between Morrow and Davis money, say three years at $13M a season, then it might be worth playing out 2019 and reevaluating next year. Dellin’s the man and I hope he stays a Yankee forever. I also don’t blame the Yankees one bit for not wanting to rush into a long-term marriage.