2018 ALDS Archives - Page 2 of 4

Red Sox 16, Yanks 1: A Masterclass in Managerial Negligence

October 8, 2018 by Mike

Aaron Boone sees Joe Girardi’s non-challenge and raises him a bumbling showcase of managerial incompetence. Boone failed — spectacularly — at the manager’s most basic responsibility: Put the team in the best position to succeed. That’s all. And he didn’t do it. The final score was 16-1 in ALDS Game Three on Monday night. It is the most lopsided postseason loss in Yankees history. An abject humiliation for the Yankees, Boone, and the people that hired him. The Yankees are facing a win or go home Game Four on Tuesday night. They’re lucky MLB doesn’t count this as two losses.

Beating The Red Sox Is Hard Enough When You Don’t Have To Overcome Your Own Manager
I don’t even know where to start. Might as well start at the beginning then. Luis Severino was terrible. Even in the scoreless first inning, the Red Sox squared him up pretty well, and seven of his 14 balls in play were clocked at 100 mph or better. Seven balls in play at 100 mph or better ties his season high set on May 19th against … the Royals? The Royals. It was obvious early that Severino did not have it.

Absolutely nothing about Boone’s bullpen management made sense Monday night. Watching the game live, I thought Severino should’ve been out in the third inning, specifically after Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi opened the frame with back-to-back singles. Benintendi’s was bloop, sure, but by then we’d all seen enough to know Severino was not right. The game was still 1-0 at the time! Act quickly and the game could remain within reach!

Instead, Severino remained in to complete the third inning. J.D. Martinez followed the back-to-back singles with a hard-hit sacrifice fly, Xander Bogaerts shot a single to right, and Rafael Devers got a run home with a fielder’s choice. Steve Pearce ended the inning with a line out. The Red Sox put six balls in play that inning and four checked in at 100 mph or better. It wasn’t until the Bogaerts single that pitching coach Larry Rothschild visited the mound. The Red Sox led 3-0.

When the third inning ended, Lance Lynn and Stephen Tarpley were warming up. The bottom of the order, which featured two lefties (Brock Holt and Jackie Bradley Jr.), was due up in the fourth. Seemed like the perfect time to get Tarpley in there. That’s why he’s on the roster, right? He’s not going to face a lefty in the late innings. A fourth inning appearance against the bottom of the lineup made perfect sense. Why’s he one the roster if he’s not pitching there?

Inexplicably, Severino was sent back out for the fourth inning. He really should’ve been out in the third. There was no good reason to send him out for the fourth. Severino had nothing and the Yankees were down only 3-0 at the time. A three-run deficit at Yankee Stadium with six innings play? The game was far from over. Move on from Severino and ask the bullpen to keep it close. Seemed obvious. Obvious to anyone but Boone, that is.

This is what kills me: Severino was left in to load the bases with no outs. That is impossibly stupid. Boone was trying to steal some outs against the bottom of the lineup. That’s something you do in June or July, not the postseason. It looked to me like Boone got caught flat-footed. Severino allowed two first pitch singles and a four-pitch walk. It happened very fast and the bullpen didn’t have enough time to get warmed back up. That’s not a good excuse, mind you. That’s just what I think happened.

At this point, we’ve already got two Boone blunders. Severino should’ve been out in the third inning, I thought. At the very least, he shouldn’t have gone out for the fourth inning. Then he was left in to load the bases with no outs! For the top of the lineup! With the Yankees only down three! In a postseason game! Good gravy. What is that crap? Remember how quickly Boone pulled J.A. Happ in Game One? Where the hell was that hook in Game Three?

Because leaving Severino in to load the bases wasn’t bad enough, Boone made the impressively bad decision to bring Lance Lynn — Lance Lynn! — into that bases loaded jam. Against the top of the lineup, no less. Consider some of the arms out in the bullpen:

Aroldis Chapman: 43.9% strikeouts
Dellin Betances: 42.3% strikeouts
David Robertson: 32.2% strikeouts
Chad Green: 31.5% strikeouts

No manager is going to bring his closer into the fourth inning no matter the situation, so Chapman was a non-option there. Betances? Why not? He entered the fifth in the Wild Card Game. The top of the order was due up and Dellin’s been the “the other team’s best hitters specialist” so far this postseason. Green? He entered ALDS Game One in the third inning! Aside from Chapman, those dudes should’ve been in play in that fourth inning.

Instead, Boone went to Lynn, essentially a fastball only guy with a league average 23.0% strikeout rate. Pretty much the last guy in the bullpen I want brought into a bases loaded, no outs situation. Going to an actual reliever to escape that bases loaded jam (or at least limit damage) before bringing in the inferior long man is New Age Analytical Manager 101 stuff. Boone failed to put the team in the best position to succeed, period.

Here is Boone’s explanation for sticking with Severino and going to Lynn in that fourth inning:

“Just hoping he could get something started to get through the bottom of the lineup there, and then we would have — we’re going to have Lynn ready for (the righty bats) no matter what. And then once the first two guys got on there, thinking (No. 9 hitter Jackie Bradley Jr.) is in a bunting situation, thinking we’re going to take him out and go to the pen there. It just snowballed on him … The matchup we want was Lynn through the top against the righties. So once those two guys got on and it became a bunting situation, we were just going to ride Sevy through that spot.”

So basically the Yankees were hoping Bradley would bunt the runners over so they could bring Lynn in to face the righty — the righty being Mookie Betts, of course — with runners on second and third and one out. Hmmm. The Yankees are big into analytics and it works great for them. I question anything that spits out “Lynn is a better matchup against Betts than those other dudes in the bullpen.”

Anyway, Lynn couldn’t stop the bleeding, of course. He walked the first batter he faced on four pitches to force in a run, then gave up a bases-clearing double to Andrew Benintendi. The rout was on. And somehow it got worse. Lynn retired only one of the four batters he faced, so Boone brought Green into the game. To recap:

Lynn entered with the bases loaded and no outs with the Yankees down 3-0.
Green entered with runners on the corners and no outs with the Yankees down 7-0.

Trash managing. Boone seemed completely oblivious to his players’ strengths and the personnel available to him. And! And to make matters worse, because Lynn bowed out early, Green (29 pitches) and Jonathan Holder (38 pitches) soaked up multiple innings each and probably won’t be available for Game Four. This game was managed so poorly that the bullpen is going into Game Four shorthanded. A spectacularly terrible game for Boone. Among the worst managed games I’ve ever seen.

Nothing Against Eovaldi
I suppose the good news is the Yankees got their terrible pitching night and their terrible hitting night out of the way in Game Three. They had five singles and no walks in seven innings against Nathan Eovaldi, and the run didn’t score until the Yankees were down 10-0. Eovaldi threw 45 pitches in the first three innings and none of his 52 pitches in innings four through seven were stressful.

Those five singles plus a garbage time walk were the only baserunners the Yankees had in Game Three. Giancarlo Stanton had two singles plus another rope that was right at an outfielder. As crappy as the Yankees have been against Eovaldi this year, Stanton was on everything in Game Three. Aaron Judge, Luke Voit, and Gleyber Torres had the other singles. Adeiny Hechavarria had the walk. Yuck.

Leftovers
Congrats to Austin Romine. He is the second position player in baseball history to pitch in the postseason. Cliff Pennington is the other. Somehow I was at both games. Romine gave up a two-run home run to Brock Holt, which completed the cycle. First postseason cycle in baseball history. Pretty embarrassing! Romine is the first Yankees position player to pitch to Brendan Ryan threw two innings (!) against the Astros in August 2015.

Tarpley got knocked around pretty good in his inning of work. He got knocked around so hard Romine had to pitch. Three runs allowed on four hits and a walk, plus two wild pitches. One sailed behind the left-handed batter. As mentioned earlier, this was the most lopsided postseason loss in franchise history. The list:

2018 ALDS Game Three vs. Red Sox: 16-1
2001 World Series Game Six vs. Diamondbacks: 15-2
1999 ALCS Game Three vs. Red Sox: 13-1
2001 ALCS Game Three vs. Mariners: 14-3
1996 World Series Game One vs. Braves: 12-1

And finally, the only person to have a worse night than Boone was first base umpire Angel Hernandez. He had three calls overturned in the first four innings! Plus a fourth reviewed! An another play in the late innings that probably would’ve been reviewed had the score not been so lopsided.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
ESPN has the box score and MLB has the updated standings. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page and here’s the win probability graph:

Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
An elimination game. The Yankees are down 2-1 in the best-of-five ALDS and that means Tuesday night’s CC Sabathia vs. Rick Porcello game is a literal must win. That’s an 8:07pm ET.

2018 ALDS Game Three: Red Sox at Yankees

October 8, 2018 by Mike

Welcome to the best-of-three ALDS. The Yankees and Red Sox split the first two games of the series at Fenway Park — a good outcome for the Yankees, for sure — and now the series shifts to the Bronx for Game Three. It’s very simple: Win two games at home and set up an ALCS rematch against the obnoxiously good Astros.

Since the start of last postseason the Yankees are a perfect 7-0 in Yankee Stadium in the postseason and have outscored their opponents 42-14. 42-14! They’re built for their home ballpark. No doubt. The Yankee Stadium crowd is also the tenth man. The crowd’s been dynamite the last two postseasons and I think it’ll be even louder tonight.

“I think it’s going to be amazing. I really do,” said Aaron Boone yesterday about tonight’s crowd. “I think the connection that our fan base and our fans now have with our players is a special one … I thought the atmosphere against the A’s was special. I think there’s a potential that it could be even more so tomorrow night.”

The Yankees will start Luis Severino tonight and he pitched well in the Wild Card Game, though he only got through four innings plus two batters. Some more length would be nice tonight, but, as far as I’m concerned, the important thing is quality of the innings, not the quantity of the innings. Especially with the bullpen the Yankees have.

If you’re into projections and probabilities and all that, ZiPS has the Yankees as the slight favorite to win the series (53.6% vs. 46.4%) and a slighter favorite to win tonight (51.3% vs. 48.7%). Both these teams are so good, man. It’s hard for me to look at this series as anything other than a coin flip. The lineups:

New York Yankees
1. LF Andrew McCutchen
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Luke Voit
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. SS Didi Gregorius
6. C Gary Sanchez
7. 3B Miguel Andujar
8. 2B Gleyber Torres
9. CF Brett Gardner

RHP Luis Severino

Boston Red Sox
1. RF Mookie Betts
2. LF Andrew Benintendi
3. DH J.D. Martinez
4. SS Xander Bogaerts
5. 3B Rafael Devers
6. 1B Steve Pearce
7. 2B Brock Holt
8. C Christian Vazquez
9. CF Jackie Bradley Jr.

RHP Nathan Eovaldi

It is cloudy and cool in New York tonight. Has been all day. Not the best baseball weather, but there’s no heavy rain in the forecast, and that’s all that matters. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm ET and you can watch on TBS and TBS.com. Enjoy the game.

Injury Update: Aaron Hicks (hamstring) is doing “considerably” better and is available tonight. Aaron Boone said he wanted to give Hicks one more day just because hamstrings are tricky.

Scouting the ALDS Opposition: Nathan Eovaldi

October 8, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

Nathan Eovaldi has faced the Yankees three times since joining the Red Sox, and he has been nothing short of dominant. His overall line in those games is 16.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R (0 ER), 3 BB, and 13 K, and it may well have been better had he not been pulled after two effective innings on September 29 (it was effectively a means to keep him stretched-out in a meaningless game). We saw flashes of this sort of dominance before, but it was sporadic at best – and the fact that this has come with the Red Sox makes it even more maddening. But I digress.

Let’s take a look at this new and improved version of Eovaldi.

When Eovaldi last pitched for the Yankees in 2016, all of the talk was about maximizing his newfound splitter. The pitch was, for all intents and purposes, born in 2015, accounting for 9.4% of his offerings; the usage more than doubled in 2016 to 22.9% … and then his elbow went ‘boom.’ To that point, Eovaldi was basically a three-pitch guy, with his four-seamer, slider, and splitter. This year, however, we’ve seen the unveiling of another new-ish pitch: a cutter.

As per Brooks Baseball, Eovaldi threw a total of 220 cutters from 2011 through 2016; he threw 577 this year. His cutter represented just under a third of his offerings this year, and he threw fewer fastballs and sliders than ever before. And while batters are hitting .252 against the cutter, his four-seamer (.206) and slider (.219) have been at their most effective this year – and that may be attributed to the increased use of a pitch that essentially splits the difference between a four-seamer and a slider.

Eovaldi’s velocity remains elite, too. His four-seamer averaged 97.6 MPH this year, his cutter sat just over 93 MPH, and both his slider and splitter sit in the upper 80s.

So what, if anything, does he do differently against the Yankees?

Eovaldi’s splitter usage jumps out the most. He threw 213 pitches against the Yankees in his three Red Sox appearances, and just 9 of those (or 4.2%) were splitters. Compare that to an average of 12.8% overall, and it seems like a conscious decision by Eovaldi and/or the coaching staff. Those splitters were almost entirely replaced by cutters, which represented 39.0% of his offerings against the Yankees. Between that and his four-seamer, Eovaldi is throwing roughly 80% of his pitches at 93-plus MPH against the Yankees – and it’s been working.

It’s also worth noting that, by FanGraphs’ model, the Yankees are one of the worst teams in baseball at hitting the cutter. They ranked 25th in baseball against cutters, losing 7.2 more runs than the average team against it. And by that same metric, Eovaldi had the 9th-best cutter among starting pitchers, just behind CC Sabathia.

All that being said, it’s worth noting that Eovaldi’s approach in his lone start against the Yankees as a member of the Rays was largely the same – and the Yankees knocked him around for 8 hits and 5 runs in 7.1 IP. He improved as the season wore on, to be sure, and that was his fourth start after a nearly two-year layoff, but it hasn’t been all doom and gloom for the Yankees with him on the mound. And he hasn’t yet faced this fully operational offense in playoff atmosphere Yankee Stadium, either.

The Yankees have kept Mookie Betts in check so far, and they will have to keep doing so to win the ALDS

October 8, 2018 by Mike

In all likelihood, Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts will be named AL MVP this year. He is the proverbial “best player on the best team,” which always leads to MVP love, and it wouldn’t be undeserved. Betts hit .346/.438/.640 (185 wRC+) with 32 homers and 30 steals during the regular season, and he led MLB with +10.4 fWAR and +10.8 bWAR. It was the first Trout-like season by someone other than Mike Trout since Bryce Harper’s MVP year in 2015.

Betts wrecked the Yankees during the regular season like he wrecked pretty much every team, hitting .415/.506/.738 with ten doubles and three homers in 17 games. In those 17 games against the Yankees, he reached base 40 times and had 48 total bases. Betts failed to reach base only twice in his 17 regular season games against the Yankees this year. He’s great player and he was especially great against the Yankees this year.

That all said, through two games in the ALDS, the Yankees have largely kept Betts in check. He is 1-for-7 at the plate with a walk. The walk was intentional and the base hit was a third inning leadoff double against J.A. Happ in Game One. Betts was ahead in the count 3-1, home plate umpire Cory Blaser gave Happ a gift strike two call, then Betts golfed the next pitch off the Green Monster.

Betts did not reach base in Game Two — he went 0-for-4 with a hard line out and three otherwise harmless batted balls — and, partly because of that, J.D. Martinez batted with only one runner on base in his four at-bats. When you’re trying to hold down the Red Sox offense, that’s a great way to do it. Limiting traffic in front of Martinez is a must.

The Yankees have, to some degree, changed up their approach against Betts in the ALDS, though it is only eight plate appearances against five different pitchers (Masahiro Tanaka three times, Happ twice, Zach Britton once, Chad Green once, Lance Lynn once). Here’s the quick breakdown:

Regular season: 50.3% fastballs, 34.1% breaking balls, 15.6% offspeed
ALDS: 60.0% fastballs, 22.9% breaking balls, 17.1% offspeed

Three at-bats against the fastball heavy Happ and Lynn are balanced out by three at-bats against the anti-fastball Tanaka. Then again, it’s eight at-bats, so it’s possible if not likely this is all sample size noise. This much I do know: Not counting the intentional walk, Betts has seen a hitter friendly 2-0 or 3-1 count only twice in his seven ALDS at-bats. That’s a good way to limit a hitter’s production. Stop him from seeing favorable counts.

Betts is so good that holding him down for an entire postseason series feels impossible. I swear, every time the guy makes an out, it feels like luck. His hands are lightning fast and he rarely swings and misses. I’m not sure there’s a hole anywhere in his swing. He can beat you in so many ways too. With his power, with his patience, with his speed. Plus he does stuff like this defensively. Give credit where it’s due. Betts is a hell of a ballplayer.

The Yankees have done a good job keeping Betts in check so far in the ALDS. Holding him to a double and an intentional walk through two games is a pretty great outcome. Better than I would’ve expected. I’m not sure limiting him a .143 AVG and a .250 OBP for an entire best-of-five series is possible, but the longer the Yankees can prevent him from having an impact, the greater their chances of advancing.

Last postseason Dellin Betances was unusable, now he’s an indispensable part of the bullpen

October 8, 2018 by Mike

What a difference a year makes. Last year around this time Dellin Betances was persona non grata, essentially unusable in the postseason because his control had deteriorated down the stretch. The Yankees had to cover 8.2 innings with their bullpen in the 2017 Wild Card Game and Betances never even warmed up. Chasen Shreve warmed up. Betances did not.

This season, after an offseason of trade (and even non-tender) speculation, Betances reemerged as a dominant bullpen arm, throwing 66.2 innings with a 2.70 ERA (2.47 FIP) during the regular season. His 42.3% strikeout rate was a career high. His 9.6% walk rate was far better than last year (16.0%) and below his career average (11.0%). With Aroldis Chapman’s knee having been an issue in the second half, Betances was the team’s best reliever during the regular season.

Dellin’s postseason role has been made clear after only three games. He was the eighth inning guy during the regular season, and now, in October, Aaron Boone is using him as a middle of the order specialist. Consider his two appearances thus far:

Wild Card Game: Entered with the Yankees up 2-0, runners on first and second with no outs in the fifth inning, and the 2-3-4 hitters due up.
ALDS Game Two: Entered with the Yankees up 3-1, bases empty with no outs in the sixth inning, and the 2-3-4 hitters due up.

“We wanted Dellin for that part of the order. So I was willing to go to him obviously as early as we were,” said Boone after the Wild Card Game. “Dellin is a stud … I told him before the game, you may be who I go to in the fourth or the fifth inning potentially, if it’s a part of lineup that I want you facing in that spot.”

Betances has gotten six of the biggest outs of the year so far. That’s not an unreasonable thing to say. The biggest and most impactful out is probably Luis Severino striking out Marcus Semien with the bases loaded to end the fourth inning in the Wild Card Game. After that, the biggest outs are Betances in the fifth inning of the Wild Card Game and Betances in the sixth inning of ALDS Game Two, right? Middle of the order with a two-run lead? That’s huge.

According to championship probability added, which is essentially win probability added on steroids (WPA tells you how much closer a player brings you to a win, CPA tells you how much closer a player brings you to a championship), Betances has been one of the most impactful pitchers in baseball this season. The 2018 pitcher CPA leaderboard:

Kyle Freeland: +0.089
Clayton Kershaw: +0.052
Josh Hader: +0.050
Dellin Betances: +0.046
Cole Hamels: +0.043

CPA covers the regular season and postseason. Everything a player does throughout the year either helps or hurts his team’s chances of winning the World Series. Betances was the primary eighth inning guy during the regular season and he racked up a lot of high-leverage outs. In the postseason, his role has changed a bit, in that he’s being asked to get the biggest outs regardless of inning. It’s pretty awesome. I love the way Boone has used Dellin so far.

Surely, having guys like Chapman and Zach Britton and David Robertson in reserve for the late innings makes it easier to use Betances in the middle innings. Boone identified a high-leverage situation, put his best reliever in the game, and it helped the Yankees win. Betances retired all six batters he faced in the Wild Card Game and retired the 2-3-4 hitters on nine pitches in ALDS Game Two. (He did allow a run in the next inning.)

“It feels good,” said Betances following Game Two, when asked how to it felt to have an important role this postseason (video link). “Like I said last year, I felt like I wasn’t contributing to the team the way I wanted to. I feels good to go out there and get some great outs.”

The last few years Betances saw his performance slip in the second half, particularly in September. Last year it was especially bad. I always kinda assumed at least part of it was fatigue. Betances was a multi-inning guy for a few years and that takes a toll on you. This year, there was no second half slip. Dellin remained effective all year, so much so that he’s now being asked to get the biggest outs in October. That’s a game-changer. It really is. He’s so good when right.

As good as the bullpen was last season and last postseason, it was not as deep as this year’s bullpen. Joe Girardi leaned heavily on Robertson and Chapman last postseason, with Green and Tommy Kahnle filling in the gaps. This year Boone has Chapman in the ninth, Robertson and Britton as trusted late-inning guys, plus Green to fill in the gaps, plus Betances as what amounts to that middle of the order specialist. Girardi didn’t have this Betances last year.

Thanks to built-in off-days, the Yankees are especially dangerous with their bullpen this postseason. Betances went two innings in the Wild Card Game and two innings in ALDS Game Two, then was able to rest during the off-day and be available for the next game. That doesn’t happen during the regular season. The presence of guys like Robertson and Britton allow Boone to be aggressive with Dellin in the middle innings, which he’s done so far this postseason, and Betances has responded by getting some of the biggest outs of the year already. It’s the polar opposite of last postseason.

Thoughts prior to Game Three of the 2018 ALDS

October 8, 2018 by Mike

The Yankees went to Fenway Park and did what they had to do over the weekend. They split the first two games of the ALDS and grabbed homefield advantage. Game Two was especially fun. The Yankees socked some dingers and, after the game, Aaron Judge blasted “New York, New York” from his road trip boombox as he walked through the Fenway Park concourse to the team bus. Pretty great. Anyway, I have some thoughts going into Game Three tonight (7:40pm ET on TBS), so let’s get to ’em.

1. Remember how bad Judge was in the ALDS last year? He was historically awful. He went 1-for-20 (.050) with a double, four walks, and 16 strikeouts (!) in the five-game series against the Indians. That’s the most strikeouts by a single player in a postseason series in baseball history, including seven-game series. Judge was much better in the ALCS against the Astros (.250/.357/.708) and, this postseason, he’s been a monster. He is 7-for-12 (.583) thus far, and in all three postseason games he’s hit a home run and reached base three times. Judge is 12-for-29 (.414) with five walks (.500 OBP) and six homers (1.138 SLG) in his last eight postseason games dating back to ALCS Game Three last year. What a beast. Hard to believe we were all concerned about whether Judge would have his timing at the plate and adequate strength in his wrist after the injury. It wasn’t unreasonable to be concerned! Wrist injuries are tricky. Right now, it’s impossible to tell he was ever hurt. Judge had three 109+ mph batted balls in his first three at-bats in Game Two. MVP candidate Jose Ramirez had two 109+ mph batted balls all season. Judge is a unicorn, man. That size, that athleticism, that power, that leadership. He’s looking more and more like a once in a generation type, truly.

2. The talent and depth in the bullpen is insane. The guys the Red Sox have been trotting out there in middle relief do not compare to the guys the Yankees have been running out there. The depth has really stood out. The Yankees used four relievers to cover five innings in the Wild Card Game and they still had Chad Green and Jonathan Holder in reserve. Four relievers covered six innings in ALDS Game One and the Yankees didn’t use Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, or Holder. Three relievers covered four innings in ALDS Game Two and the Yankees had David Robertson, Green, and Holder still available. That is nuts. Holder threw 66 innings with a 3.14 ERA (3.04 FIP) this season and was a rock solid middle innings reliever, and he hasn’t even warmed up in any of the three postseason games. When that dude is your sixth best reliever, you’re in great shape. The bullpen is incredibly deep and the built-in rest means the Yankees will have all those guys available pretty much every game. There are no A.J. Coles who need to soak up innings when others need rest, you know? The relievers still have to get outs, absolutely, but what an advantage the bullpen has been thus far. They protect leads and, when the Yankees are behind, they prevent the other team from adding on.

3. Eduardo Nunez, not Rafael Devers, has started at third base in the first two games of the ALDS, and Red Sox manager Alex Cora said it is because “we feel he’s been the better defensive player.” First and foremost, I’m pretty sure this is the first time anyone has said Nunez is in the starting lineup for his glove. Hard to believe. Secondly, there’s a parallel to the Gary Sanchez/Austin Romine situation here. Devers is, clearly, the more talented player and more likely to do something game-changing (at the plate). Nunez is the safer play. Neither he nor Devers stood out for his bat during the regular season (90 wRC+ vs. 78 wRC+), and the Red Sox consider Nunez the superior defender, so they’ve have gone with him. The Yankees are doing the opposite. Romine is the better defender than Sanchez — well, he’s better at blocking pitches in the dirt, throwing and pitch-framing and game-calling are a different matter — and the safe play would’ve been to start him in the postseason. Instead, the Yankees have stuck with Sanchez, and he rewarded them with a monster two-homer game in Game Two. Nunez is 0-for-7 with a walk in the two ALDS games and his defense has been suspect as well. The Red Sox have played it safe and they have yet to be rewarded. The Yankees bet on the talent and it paid huge dividends in Game Two.

4. This isn’t the easiest thing to quantify, but the Yankees seem to be positioned exceptionally well this postseason. Ground balls are hit right at guys and the outfielders aren’t having to travel very far to run down fly balls. The Red Sox had several hard-hit balls against Masahiro Tanaka the other night and Brett Gardner was in position to catch all of them. Don’t mistake that for me saying the Yankees have been flawless defensively. Miguel Andujar still has his issues and Luke Voit can make things interesting at first base. I’m just saying that the Yankees seem to have their defenders positioned very well. Ground balls have been hit right at infielders and several line drives have been hit right at defenders at well. Maybe it’s all one giant coincidence. That’s possible. Given how much the Yankees rely on analytics though, I don’t think that’s the case. Love it or hate it, the shift is here to stay, and the Yankees have doing a really good job getting their people in the right spots.

5. Obvious statement is obvious: The Yankees don’t want this series going back to Fenway Park for Game Five, especially not with Chris Sale lined up for that game. If they have to do it, they have to do it, but they want to put this series away these next two days. The Yankees are built for their ballpark and the Yankee Stadium crowd is a very real homefield advantage. Astros players said the atmosphere was intimidating last season — “There’s no doubt the crowd had an effect on the game,” said then Astros DH Carlos Beltran to Tom Verducci following the ALCS Game Four comeback last year — and I imagine the energy with be ratcheted up another notch since this is Yankees vs. Red Sox. The Yankees are undefeated at home since last postseason. They won all six home games last year and the Wild Card Game this year. That’s because the Yankees are insanely talented and built for their ballpark, first and foremost. But the crowd helps. For sure. The old Yankee Stadium was special in its own way. I loved that place. I grew up going to games there. The new Yankee Stadium has started to develop its own personality though. Its own personality with a new core of players. The Yankees have transitioned out of the Derek Jeter era and a new core has arrived. It’s fun and it’s exciting, and the atmosphere at Yankee Stadium reflects that. I get the feeling these next two games will be bonkers.

Yankees 6, Red Sox 2: Sanchez homers twice in ALDS Game 2

October 7, 2018 by Mike

The ALDS is now a best-of-three series with the next two games at Yankee Stadium. I can’t shake the feeling that the Yankees should be taking a 2-0 series lead back to New York, but there’s nothing anyone can do about that now. Splitting the first two games at Fenway Park is a-okay with me. The Yankees picked up a 6-2 win in ALDS Game Two on Saturday.

The Price is Right
For the Yankees, that is. Including ALDS Game Two, David Price has made five starts against the Yankees this season, and in those five starts he allowed 23 runs and eleven home runs in 17.1 innings. That includes a six-inning, two-run start back in August! Goodness. Price didn’t make it out of the second inning Saturday. It’s a damn shame Alex Cora is a smart manager with a quick hook.

The Yankees got on the board quickly thanks to Aaron Judge’s third home run in three postseason games. He hit a two-run home run against Liam Hendriks in the Wild Card Game and a solo home run against Craig Kimbrel in ALDS Game One. In Game Two, it was another solo shot, clear over the Green Monster to center-ish field. Look at that photo above. It is perfect. It is David Price’s entire career against the Yankees in one photo.

The Judge home run gave the Yankees a 1-0 lead. In the second, it was Gary Sanchez’s turn to take Price deep, which he did for a solo home run. Sanchez vs. Price in his career: 7-for-14 (.500) with six home runs. Good gravy. Then, with two outs in the second, Price walked Gleyber Torres and Brett Gardner, and gave up a loud Fenway Park single to Andrew McCutchen. This is a single in one (1) ballpark:

Statcast had the exit velocity at 100.8 mph and the projected distance at 355 feet. That’s a home run in pretty much every other ballpark in the big leagues. Instead, it was a one-run single. Blah. Price got the hook after that. Judge smoked a line drive right at Mookie Betts for the third out of the inning with runners on the corners. Statcast had the hit probability at 82% based on the exit velocity and launch angle. Betts barely had to move. Lame.

Price’s line: 1.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 2 HR on 42 pitches. Between the regular season and the postseason, this was the 299th start of Price’s undeniably excellent career. It was his first career start with zero strikeouts. Crazy. Also, Price is up to a 5.28 ERA in 75 career postseason innings. And just when I thought this night couldn’t get any better, I saw that Price told Pete Abraham he’ll be available for Game Three on Monday. Sweet!

Masterful Masahiro
Okay, masterful is probably pushing it, but Masahiro Tanaka was very good Saturday night. He gave up the #obligatoryhomer to Xander Bogaerts on an ambushed first pitch fastball in the fourth inning, but it was only a solo shot, so not a huge deal. Tanaka retired ten of the first dozen batters he faced before the home run, allowing only a pair of ground ball singles. He then retired five of the six batters he faced after the home run.

In his final two regular season starts Tanaka allowed nine runs in eight innings, largely because his trademark splitter wasn’t cooperating. It seemed to be moving side-to-side more than diving down below the zone. A few days ago Tanaka said he figured it out during a bullpen session — “I had that time to make the necessary adjustments,” he told Dan Martin — and the split was mostly down Saturday. His misses were wide rather than out over the plate. To wit:

Tanaka is the most extreme anti-fastball pitcher in baseball. It’s no secret. He threw only 30.9% fastballs during the regular season. The next lowest was Lance McCullers Jr. at 37.2%. Ross Stripling was the only other guy under 40%. He threw 39.6% fastballs. Yeah, Tanaka’s an anti-fastball guy. On Saturday night, he threw 18 fastballs (!) among his 78 pitches, or 23.1%. Geez. It makes sense though. Use the hell out of that splitter and slider.

Tanaka’s final line: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR on 78 pitches. There was clearly enough gas left in the tank for another inning, maybe two, but Aaron Boone played it smart and got Tanaka out of there rather than let him face the middle of the order a third time. Tanaka’s numbers each time through the order this season:

First Time: .232/.273/.386 (87 OPS+)
Second Time: .217/.276/.376 (78 OPS+)
Third Time: .292/.345/.569 (130 OPS+)

Yup. Two-run lead in a postseason game at Fenway Park with that bullpen behind him? Get Tanaka out of there. Boone did let him face Betts a third time with two outs and the bases empty in the fifth, and he hit a 105 mph line drive to Gardner in center field. Ominous. Good work by Tanaka and good job by Boone getting him out of there when he did.

Back In The Box
In Game One, the Yankees were all over the Red Sox bullpen. Five relievers faced 19 batters and eight reached base. The Yankees had plenty of opportunities but didn’t get that one big hit. Game Two was kinda the opposite. After Price was out of the game, Joe Kelly settled things down with 2.1 scoreless innings. Pretty annoying. Felt like a “they’re going to regret not adding runs” game.

After Kelly, in came 31-year-old rookie Ryan Brasier, and that clown told Sanchez to get back in the box. Brasier and Sandy Leon were taking their time going through the signs — they were doing that all inning — and Sanchez stepped out a few times, and Brasier told him to get in the box. What the hell is that? Brasier struck Sanchez out and shot him a look as he walked back to the dugout. Clown show. Want Gary Sanchez in the box? Gary Sanchez is in the box mofos:

479 feet. Longest homer by any hitter at Fenway Park since Statcast became a thing in 2015. Second homer of the game for Sanchez and his tenth homer in 20 career games at Fenway Park. Some Quad-A journeyman with like two months in the big leagues is telling a former All-Star and Rookie of the Year runner-up who already went deep earlier in the game to get back in the box? As a wise man once said, “that’s for you, bitch.”

Sanchez’s three-run home run against Eduardo Rodriguez stretched the lead to 6-1 and gave the Yankees some much-needed breathing room. They left seven men on base from innings two through six and gosh did it feel like the Yankees were going to regret that. Sanchez wiped that all away. He is 6-for-23 (.261) with four home runs in his last seven games. The at-bats are getting better and the contact is getting louder. I’m not sayin’. I’m just sayin’.

The Bullpen
With the Yankees still nursing a 3-1 lead, Boone went to Dellin Betances in the sixth inning, and he cut through the 2-3-4 hitters on nine pitches. No strikeouts, but three ground balls. Those work just as well. Betances went out for a second inning after the Sanchez homer and did allow the run in the seventh on a Mitch Moreland single and an Ian Kinsler double. McCutchen’s inexperience playing left field in Fenway Park played a role there. The ball bounced off the wall and over his head.

Dellin limited the damage to one run in the seventh and Zach Britton got through eighth without an issue. Aroldis Chapman, who has had a lot of trouble against the Red Sox the last few years, walked the first hitter in the ninth. Argh. Fortunately a strikeout and a game-ending double play ball followed. Hooray. Literally the first ground ball double play Chapman has generated all year. Good timing, eh? Three runs in 15 innings for the bullpen through three postseason games. That’ll work, gentlemen.

Leftovers
Sanchez was obviously the star of the show at the plate. He went 2-for-5 with the two home runs and is the third Yankees with a two-homer game against the Red Sox in the postseason. Jason Giambi did it in 2003 ALCS Game Seven and Hideki Matsui did it in 2004 ALCS Game Three. Folks, this is why you start Sanchez in the postseason. He can change a game with one swing and he did it twice Saturday. Also, zero passed balls or wild pitches through three postseason games. Go Gary.

So, you think Judge’s wrist is feeling strong? He went 2-for-4 with a homer, an infield single, and a walk. Statcast didn’t pick up the infield single, but the exit velocities on his other three balls in play: 113.3 mph, 109.8 mph, 109.3 mph. A partial list of players who did not have three 109 mph batted balls all regular season: Anthony Rendon, Freddie Freeman, Jose Ramirez, and Matt Carpenter. Judge had three in five innings Saturday. Swoon.

Beyond Judge and Sanchez, the Yankees also got hits from McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar, and Torres. Gardner went 0-for-2 with two walks as the fill-in center fielder. Gardi B saw 28 pitches in his four at-bats and helped set up McCutchen’s run-scoring with a left-on-left walk against Price. He also ran down everything in center. Go Brett.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
Go to ESPN for the box score and MLB for the video highlights. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page and here’s the win probability graph:

Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
Game Three back in the Bronx. The Yankees and Red Sox have a travel day Sunday before reconvening at Yankee Stadium for Game Three on Monday night. Luis Severino will be on the mound for the Yankees. It’ll be either Rick Porcello or Nathan Eovaldi for the Red Sox. Porcello’s relief appearance in Game One changed Boston’s pitching plans a bit. Game Three is a 7:40pm ET start.