River Avenue Blues

River Ave. Blues » Milwaukee Brewers

Hot Stove Rumors: Reliever Market, Gray, Harrison, Profar

by

Ottavino. (Matthew Stockman/Getty)

As expected, hot stove news has slowed to a crawl over the holidays. It’s been pretty quiet this last week or so and it’ll probably stay that way for another few days, at least until Yusei Kikuchi’s 30-day negotiating period expires Wednesday. The Yankees had interest in him at one point. The J.A. Happ signing may’ve changed things though. Anyway, here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Yankees focusing on bullpen

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are focusing on the bullpen as they wait for Manny Machado to make his decision. Zach Britton, Adam Ottavino, and David Robertson are all in play and it is possible the Yankees could sign more than one top reliever. Part of me wonders if the Yankees will blow it out and spend a ton of money should they manage to sign Machado, leading to two reliever signings. Once they’re over the luxury tax threshold, might as well go all out, you know? Otherwise they might stick to the luxury tax threshold (again).

Ottavino and especially Britton have been connected to the Yankees pretty much all offseason. Things have been oddly quiet with Robertson, however. There was that weird postseason shares story, which, if you’re a conspiracy theorist, could’ve been planted to turn fans on Robertson as the Yankees let him walk. Wouldn’t be the first time a team has done that. I don’t think that’s the case though. I very much prefer Robertson to literally every other free agent reliever on the market. Hopefully the two sides can hammer out a deal at some point.

Brewers and Padres still after Gray, Reds fading

The Brewers and Padres remain involved in Sonny Gray trade talks, report Jon Morosi and AJ Cassavell. The Reds, meanwhile, are starting to fade out of the picture after adding Tanner Roark and Alex Wood in recent weeks. I guess Cincinnati doesn’t want to dip into their farm system again to acquire another one-year rental. Eleven teams were in on Gray earlier this offseason and the Yankees have since whittled that list down to the most serious trade suitors.

I am surprised 2018 is just about over and Gray is still a Yankee. Chances are the Yankees are waiting until the right deal comes along — Spring Training is still six weeks away, so there’s no rush — though I suppose they could’ve decided to keep Sonny as a sixth starter/swingman, or that Brian Cashman’s public trade declarations have backfired. It seems to me the Yankees and Gray have reached the point of no return. He’ll be traded at some point. Maybe to the Brewers or Padres, or maybe somewhere else entirely. I’ll be surprised if Gray’s still a Yankee when pitchers and catchers report on February 13th.

Yankees still “in play” for Harrison

Harrison. (Justin Berl/Getty)

The Yankees are among the teams still “in play” for free agent infielder Josh Harrison, reports Heyman. He’s a popular guy, apparently. Heyman list both contenders (Brewers, Dodgers, Nationals, Phillies) and rebuilders (Giants, Rangers) among his suitors. The Yankees could use Harrison at second base before shifting him into a true utility role once Didi Gregorius returns from Tommy John surgery.

Harrison, 31, hit .250/.293/.363 (78 wRC+) with eight homers and three steals in 97 games this past season. He’s a year removed from a .272/.339/.432 (104 wRC+) batting line — that was propped up by an uncharacteristic 23 hit-by-pitches though — and can play pretty much any position, which is not nothing. The Yankees have had trade interest in Harrison in the past too. There are better middle infield options on the board right now (Machado, Jed Lowrie, DJ LeMahieu, etc.) and my preference is going after those guys before settling for Harrison.

Yankees had interest in Profar

Before he was traded to the Athletics, the Yankees had interest in Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar, reports Gerry Fraley. They weren’t willing to give up much to get him, apparently. Texas received four good but not great Double-A prospects plus international bonus money in the three-team trade. The A’s gave up an okay big league reliever (Emilio Pagan), a good Double-A prospect, international bonus money, and a Competitive Balance Round draft pick in the deal. Oakland won’t miss any of that.

Profar, 25, hit .254/.335/.458 (108 wRC+) with 20 homers and ten steals this past season. Shoulder injuries wrecked his 2014-15 seasons and he finally started to look his old tippy top prospect self in 2018. Profar was the position player centerpiece of my 2018-19 Offseason Plan because I think he’s on the cusp of breaking out as one of the game’s best players. The Yankees have had interest in him in the past and I was hoping they’d make a run at him again this offseason. Alas. It didn’t really happen.

Hot Stove Rumors: Eovaldi, Lynn, Happ, Soria, Gray, Brewers

by

Eovaldi. (Harry How/Getty)

Patrick Corbin is a Washington National and Paul Goldschmidt is a St. Louis Cardinal. He’s been traded for four players and a draft pick. Despite their first base situation, the Yankees were never seriously connected to Goldschmidt this winter. Anyway, here are the latest hot stove rumblings as the Yankees shift gears following the Corbin news.

Eovaldi, Lynn among Plan B’s

Now that Corbin is off the board, the Yankees are “engaged” with Nathan Eovaldi and Lance Lynn as potential Plan B rotation options, reports Mark Feinsand. J.A. Happ is also in that group, of course. A week or two ago we heard the Yankees were not among the early suitors for Eovaldi, but this stuff can change in a hurry. For what it’s worth, Joel Sherman says the Yankees are hesitant to reunite with Eovaldi if it takes four years.

I’ve said all I have to say about Eovaldi. Good dude and I hope he gets paid, but I am a hard pass on an enigmatic two-time Tommy John surgery guy who succeeds with max effort velocity. Happ is fine and nothing more in my opinion. Re-signing him would be okay but underwhelming. Lynn? Blah. He had a 4.41 ERA (2.17 FIP) in 54.1 innings with the Yankees this past season — the low FIP is the result of an unsustainably low homer rate (0.33 HR/9 and 4.5% HR/FB) — and I guess he could fit as a swingman. As a full-time starter though? Not interested.

Yankees have interest in Soria

According to Jesse Sanchez, the Yankees are among the teams with interest in veteran reliever Joakim Soria. They’re said to want two relievers to replace David Robertson and Zach Britton. Soria is still only 34 — I would’ve guessed he’s 37 or 38 by now — and this past season he had a 3.12 ERA (2.43 FIP) with a 29.4% strikeout rate in 60.2 innings for the White Sox and Brewers. He was still throwing fastballs by dudes in October too. The stuff remains pretty lively.

The Yankees have been connected to Soria a bunch of times over the years though they never have acquired him. This would not qualify as a sexy pickup, I know, but I’d be cool with signing Soria to a one-year deal or even a lower cost two-year contract. He’d be what, the fourth best reliever in the bullpen? Maybe fifth? He’s fine in that role. Soria is still effective and he’s wily as hell (his new thing is changing arm slots) and he has experience in every relief role imaginable.

Yankees, Brewers have talked Gray

Add another team to the Sonny Gray trade rumor mill. Jon Morosi reports the Yankees have spoken to the Brewers about Gray. Morosi also reiterates the Padres’ interest in Gray and says they’re having “ongoing discussions” with the Yankees. Eleven teams are reportedly in on Sonny and we know eight of them: Brewers, Padres, Mariners, Athletics, Reds, Braves, Rangers, and Twins. There are still three Mystery Teams™ out there.

I’m surprised Gray has not been traded yet but I guess it makes sense for the Yankees to hang on to him until they acquire another starter, even though it seems they’re beyond the point of no return given Brian Cashman’s comments this offseason. Bottom line, if there are truly eleven teams in on Gray — or even just three or four teams — the Yankees are going to get something nifty for him. Not a star prospect or anything, but something better than nothing, which is what you might normally expect for a guy who had as poor a season as Sonny just did.

Sorting through possible trade partners for Sonny Gray

by

(Presswire)

Once the offseason really gets going in a few weeks, we’ll all focus on who the Yankees will add over the winter. Manny Machado? Bryce Harper? Patrick Corbin? Mystery players? Brian Cashman has said the rotation will be the “focus point” this winter and that is no surprise given the state of the starting staff. The Yankees also need to figure out left field, the infield without Didi Gregorius, and also reinforce the bullpen.

While we understandably spend an unhealthy about of time looking at who the Yankees could acquire this winter, we also have to remember the Yankees are trying to subtract a player as well. That player: Sonny Gray. Gray has been a colossal disappointment in pinstripes (4.51 ERA and 4.40 FIP in 195.2 innings) and Cashman Has made it clear the Yankees will look to trade Gray this winter. He was unusually candid at his end-of-season press conference.

“It hasn’t worked out thus far,” said Cashman at that press conference. “I think he’s extremely talented. We’ll enter the winter, unfortunately, open-minded to a relocation. To maximize his abilities, it would be more likely best somewhere else. If I do find a match, you’re gonna see what we had hoped to see here … Someone, if they trade for him, is gonna get the player we wanted. I fully expect that.”

Cashman made a point of saying he won’t give Gray away — what’s he supposed to say? — but, clearly, the Yankees want to move him. Usually in these cases the GM says it’s up to the team to help the player figure it out. Cashman skipped that entirely. Having listened to Cashman and Aaron Boone and Larry Rothschild all season, I sense a lot of frustration here, and the Yankees are ready to move on. I’m not surprised.

As a 28-year-old starting pitcher with a good track record — even after last season, Sonny has a 3.66 ERA (3.74 FIP) in 900.2 big league innings — and a relatively low salary (projected $9.1M in 2019), I get the feeling the Yankees will have no trouble finding potential trade partners for Gray. And remember, he was great outside Yankee Stadium this year (3.17 ERA and 2.65 FIP). Teams will notice. If Sonny were on any other team, wouldn’t we look at him as a possible buy-low candidate? Sure we would. That’s how other teams see him.

With the caveat that things can be unpredictable in the offseason, I’ve singled out several clubs who appear to be possible trade suitors for Gray. Even though he’ll be a free agent next offseason, I don’t think Gray’s market is limited to contending teams. A rebuilding club could be looking at him as a buy-low candidate they could flip for more at the trade deadline, or sign long-term. The Reds traded for Matt Harvey, right? Same idea. Let’s dive in. (Reminder: My trade proposal sucks.)

Chicago White Sox

Why would they want Gray? The rebuild hit a bump in the road this season. Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson didn’t take that step forward, Lucas Giolito went backwards, and Michael Kopech went down with Tommy John surgery. The ChiSox are always looking to acquire high-end talent though — they reportedly made a run at Machado at the deadline — and Don Cooper is a highly regarded pitching coach with a history of fixing pitchers. Getting Sonny on the cheap and seeing whether he can be a viable long-term rotation piece could interest the White Sox.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Carson Fulmer? Eh, that’s one headache for another. Fulmer hasn’t even pitched well in Triple-A. The only thing he has going for him right now is the fading “eighth overall pick in 2015” shine. Unless a deal gets expanded, the return here would most likely be a prospect(s). Not sure there’s a Gray for big leaguer trade that makes sense, not unless the ChiSox are willing to sell super low on Giolito, which kinda defeats the purpose.

Cincinnati Reds

Why would they want Gray? Again, they traded for Harvey, right? The Reds took a flier on a talented pitcher to see whether he could be a long-term option. A no-risk move that didn’t cost them anything. Cincinnati desperately needs pitching help and taking a chance on Gray the same way they took a chance on Harvey could be a worthwhile endeavor. From their perspective, it’s all about cost.

Who could they send the Yankees? One year of Gray for one year of Scooter Gennett? The Yankees would do that in a heartbeat and the Reds would assuredly want more, and hey, maybe that’s a gap the two teams can bridge. The Reds have a lot of young pitchers who’ve stalled out at the MLB level (Cody Reed, Amir Garrett) and the Yankees could try to pry one (or two) of them loose in hopes of adding a long-term piece. Reclamation project for reclamation project, basically.

Houston Astros

Why would they want Gray? The Astros could lose Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency this offseason, and while they have some in-house rotation options (Josh James, Collin McHugh, Brad Peacock), they could pursue outside help. Sonny still has excellent spin rates across the board and Houston may see him as a good low-cost, high-upside candidate for their pitching lab. Keep in mind the Astros pursued Gray at the 2017 trade deadline as well. They’ve had interest in him before.

Who could they send the Yankees? Despite being a World Series contender, Houston has not been shy about trading players off their MLB roster, though they’ve been spare parts (Joe Musgrove) and out-of-favor guys (Ken Giles). The Yankees could push something like one year of Gray for one year of Peacock or one year of McHugh. Peacock was quite good as a starter last season before shifting to the bullpen this year and eventually being left off the postseason roster. Gray for Peacock? That seems like it could be a potential win-win or a potential lopsided deal for either team.

Los Angeles Angels

Why would they want Gray? Pretty simple, really. Mike Trout is two years from free agency, so the Angels aren’t about to rebuild, and they need rotation help. Andrew Heaney and Tyler Skaggs are a good enough rotation top two. Getting a guy like Gray to slot in behind Heaney and Skaggs and ahead of dudes like Felix Pena, Jaime Barria, and Nick Tropeano makes sense for the Angels. Get Sonny out of New York and into a more pitcher friendly ballpark.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Kole Calhoun? It’s a one-year commitment for each and the money is close to a wash, plus the Angels wouldn’t have much trouble finding a replacement corner outfielder in free agency. Calhoun’s a lefty bat and a very good defender who would slot in nicely in left field. He just stopped hitting though. Calhoun went from a 117 wRC+ in 2016 to a 98 wRC+ in 2017 to a 79 wRC+ in 2018. Eh. Put Gray in a more pitcher friendly ballpark and Calhoun in a more hitter friendly ballpark and maybe it works out for both teams?

Milwaukee Brewers

Why would they want Gray? I still think the Brewers are the best landing spot for Gray. They need rotation help and their pitching coach, Derek Johnson, was Sonny’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt. The two are close. It’s a fit. Milwaukee has done a real nice job accumulating talent under GM David Stearns and Gray seems right up their alley as an upside play.

Who could they send the Yankees? Two names jumped to mind: Chase Anderson and Eric Thames. Anderson was great in 2017 (2.74 ERA and 3.58 FIP) and not so great in 2018 (3.93 ERA and 5.22 FIP), so much so that he was left off the postseason roster. He is guaranteed $6.5M next year with affordable options for 2020 and 2021. I’m not sure the Brewers are ready to give up on him yet. They’re trying to add pitching, not subtract it. Besides, bringing a dude who gave up 30 homers in 158 innings this season into Yankee Stadium might not work out too well.

Dingers. (Dylan Buell/Getty)

As for Thames, remember his huge April last year? Well, his performance has cratered since, and he hit .219/.306/.478 (105 wRC+) this year. Jesus Aguilar jumped him on the first base depth chart. Ryan Braun has also played some first base, so Thames is probably third on their first base depth chart. He wasn’t even on the Brewers postseason roster. Thames has one guaranteed year remaining on his contract ($7M) and Gray for Thames gives the Brewers a starter and the Yankees a lefty power bat they could plug in at first base or DH or, in an emergency, the outfield. Hmmm.

UPDATE: I should’ve mentioned Jonathan Schoop here as well, given that he’s a free agent next winter who is projected to make similar money as Gray. I just assumed the Brewers are not ready to flip him after trading some pretty good prospects to get him at the deadline. Schoop’s someone to keep in mind though.

Oakland Athletics

Why would they want Gray? I’ve heard through the grapevine that the A’s checked in on Gray at this year’s trade deadline. They really need starting pitching — they didn’t have anyone to start in the Wild Card Game! — and they know Sonny as well as anyone. The Athletics do have a history of trading for pricey veteran players one year before free agency (Jim Johnson and Luke Gregerson jump to mind) and again, they know Gray. They showed interest at the deadline and may look to bring him back to Oakland again this winter.

Who could they send the Yankees? Reverse the trade! Gray for James Kaprielian, Jorge Mateo, and Dustin Fowler! Nah, not happening. This trade has no winners right now. Mateo stunk this year, Kaprielian still hasn’t returned to game action following Tommy John surgery in April 2017, and Fowler struggled in MLB this year and was passed by Ramon Laureano on the center field depth chart. I don’t see an obvious big leaguer for big leaguer trade match here. It would have to be a prospect(s) that come back to New York.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Why would they want Gray? This is a long shot, I think. The Pirates traded Gerrit Cole last year because they were worried they couldn’t sign him long-term. Would they then turn around and trade for Gray when he could leave next year? I mean, sure, it’s possible, and they do need someone to slot alongside Chris Archer, Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova, and Trevor Williams in the rotation. Money might be the issue here. Pittsburgh operates on a strict budget and Gray may not fit.

Who could they send the Yankees? Hey, if Gray signs at his MLBTR projected salary, he and Nova would be a wash financially. The Pirates aren’t doing that though. Besides, I’ve seen enough Ivan Nova for one lifetime. He’s been the same old Ivan Nova the last two years (98 ERA+ and 4.51 FIP) after his stellar eleven-start cameo with Pittsburgh in 2016. Would the Pirates do Gray for Corey Dickerson? The Yankees could slot Dickerson in at left field and DH and he’d give them a good lefty bat. Seems unlikely. I don’t see a good big leaguer for big leaguer trade. A prospect(s) trade it would have to be.

San Diego Padres

Why would they want Gray? The Padres are my sleeper team. They have no money on the books long-term other than Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer, and their farm system is incredible. One of the best I’ve ever seen. They are very well-positioned to take a chance on Gray, see what he does next season, then pay to keep him if he’s a fit. San Diego reportedly tried to land Noah Syndergaard at the deadline. They’re looking for pitching. Gray’s no Syndergaard, but he could be really good, and the Padres are the perfect team to roll the dice.

Who could they send the Yankees? I thought about Cory Spangenberg. He’ll never live up to hype associated with being the tenth overall pick in 2011, but he’s a lefty bat who can play the three non-first base infield positions and also left field. The downside is Spangenberg has only hit .252/.318/.385 (88 wRC+) with a 29.0% strikeout rate in 815 plate appearances the last two years. He has two years of control remaining and perhaps the Yankees will see him as a poor man’s Didi Gregorius/Aaron Hicks. The talented player who hasn’t put together yet. I dunno. Aside from prospects, there’s no much on San Diego’s roster that excites me.

San Francisco Giants

Why would they want Gray? San Francisco’s interest in Gray depends entirely on their long-term plan. They’re hiring a new baseball operations head this winter and, if they decide to rebuild, forget it. No reason to bring in Gray. If they decide to go for it next year while Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey (and Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt) are in their primes, then the Giants could definitely be a team to watch for Gray. Their rotation is pretty sketchy with Jeff Samardzija crashing and Johnny Cueto having Tommy John surgery.

Who could they send the Yankees? In last week’s mailbag I looked at Joe Panik and Tony Watson. I can’t see the Giants trading Watson for Gray for two reasons. One, they could get more for him elsewhere. And two, if they trade for Gray, it’s because they want to win in 2019, and trading Watson hurts that cause. As for Panik, that seems more reasonable. Both he and Gray are reclamation projects at this point and San Francisco has some others they could plug in at second base. The Yankees have liked Panik in the past and they could bring him aboard as their second baseman (with Gleyber Torres shifting to shortstop) until Gregorius returns. Other than Panik and Watson, I don’t see another fit with the Giants. Their big league roster is thin and their farm system is weak.

Seattle Mariners

Why would they want Gray? Depending who you ask, the Mariners have either seven viable big league starters (Roenis Elias, Marco Gonzales, Felix Hernandez, Mike Leake, Wade LeBlanc, James Paxton, Erasmo Ramirez) or three viable big league starters (Gonzales, Leake, Paxton). Felix has crashed hard the last few years and Elias, LeBlanc, and Ramirez are journeymen. If Gray leaves New York and pitches like he did earlier in his career, he’d be the second best starter in Seattle’s rotation, hands down. The window is closing and GM Jerry Dipoto has made it clear he’s going to do all he can to win before it slams shut.

Who could they send the Yankees? Geez, I have no idea. Their farm system is barren and their best big leaguers with short-term control are Felix (nope), Denard Span (eh), Juan Nicasio (nope), and Nick Vincent (nope). I’m sure we could cobble together an acceptable trade package if we tried hard enough. Nothing jumps out to me though.

Washington Nationals

Why would they want Gray? As bad as they were this year (82-80), the Nationals remain a win-now team. They still have Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Juan Soto, and Victor Robles even if Bryce Harper leaves. Pretty good core! The Nationals could absolutely contend next season in the blob of mediocrity that is the National League. Washington has Scherzer, Strasburg, Tanner Roark, and maybe Joe Ross in their rotation. There is definitely room for Gray.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Adam Eaton? The money is close to a wash and the Nationals could still move forward with a Soto-Robles-Michael Taylor/free agent outfield should Harper not return. Knee and ankle injuries have limited Eaton to 118 games the last two seasons, but, when healthy, he’s hit .300/.394/.422 (123 wRC+). That’s really good! The downside is the leg injuries have sapped his defensive and baserunning value. As a stopgap left fielder, Eaton could work real nice. Would the Nationals really trade such a high on-base leadoff hitter if they’re trying to win though? I don’t see any other players on their big league roster that make sense.

* * *

Cashman is not an idiot. He was so open about trading Gray because he knows there’s interest and he won’t have any trouble drumming up potential trade partners. If he were worried at all about his trade leverage, he would’ve said the Yankees plan to keep Gray and get him right. That’s not what happened. In all likelihood multiple teams will be involved and the Yankees will benefit from a bidding war.

That doesn’t mean they’re going to walk away with a great package, of course. At the end of the day, Sonny is still coming off a terrible season and he’s still only under control one more season. His trade value is not sky high. It’s not nil though. I get the feeling we’re in for a lot of Sonny Gray rumors this winter, and, when it’s all said and done, the Yankees are going to end up with more than you’d expect for a dude coming off a replacement level season.

The Brewers and a solution to the Sonny Gray problem

by Leave a Comment

(Elsa/Getty)

Six days ago the Yankees moved Sonny Gray to the bullpen following a disaster start against the lowly Orioles, a disaster start in which he allowed seven runs in only 2.2 innings. Gray has not pitched since that game — to be fair, he wasn’t available until Saturday — and, frankly, I have no idea when the Yankees could use him. Has to be mop-up duty in a loss — I’m not sure I even trust Sonny in a blowout win — or extra innings only, right?

Anyway, Gray remains on the roster as a break glass in case of emergency reliever even though Brian Cashman did have a chance to move Gray at the trade deadline. During a radio interview last week Cashman explained he didn’t want to trade Gray just for the sake of trading him. A partial transcript:

“I think teams look at (Gray) and say, ‘alright, we have somebody who’s struggling in this environment, in New York — which has happened — and they have gone on elsewhere to pitch effectively or return to form. We understand and see that time and time again. So I had definitely teams that were in contention and teams that were not in contention because of his control year next year that asked about Sonny Gray because they know what his capabilities are and that his stuff is still the same. But the approached it in a buy-low situation where it did not make any sense … I was not presented with anything that would make me feel like I missed an opportunity or I should have done something.”

At this point it is very tough to see Gray remaining with the Yankees next season, or even possibly through the end of this season. You hate to trade away pitching depth, but Sonny has pitched so poorly that I’m not sure the Yankees can rely on him as depth anyway. Lance Lynn is in the rotation now and J.A. Happ is coming back soon, plus Chance Adams showed enough over the weekend to get another spot start should one be needed.

Trades are still possible in August, they just require trade waivers, which complicate things slightly. Long story short, players who clear trade waivers can be traded anywhere at any time. Players who are claimed on trade waivers can only be traded to the claiming team within 48 hours. Gray is making $6.5M this season, of which roughly $2.1M is still owed to him, and I think that’s enough to get him through waivers unclaimed. The overwhelming majority of players clear trade waivers anyway.

Clearly, Gray has fallen out of favor with the Yankees, and truth be told he would almost certainly benefit from a change of scenery as well. I’m not a big believer in the whole “he can’t handle New York” stuff, but, at this point, Sonny could probably use a change. A fresh start with a new team, etc. etc. I’m going to do something now I rarely do around here: Propose a trade. My proposal:

  • Brewers get: Sonny Gray
  • Yankees get: Keon Broxton and pitching prospect Zack Brown

My trade proposal sucks. I am fully aware of that and I welcome the ridicule and the overwhelming potential to look dumb. I don’t do the whole “here’s a very specific trade” idea thing often though, and I figured I’d indulge myself. Gray to the Brewers for Broxton and Brown. Two-for-one. Let’s talk it out.

Why the Brewers?

At 65-50, the Brewers have the third best record in the National League and they’re 1.5 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central. They have a need in their rotation with Jimmy Nelson (shoulder surgery), Zach Davies (back), and Brent Suter (Tommy John surgery) all on the disabled list and not due back anytime soon, and they’re loaded with outfielders. They traded top 100-ish prospect Brett Phillips for Mike Moustakas and still have this outfield depth chart:

  1. Christian Yelich
  2. Lorenzo Cain
  3. Eric Thames
  4. Ryan Braun
  5. Domingo Santana (in Triple-A)
  6. Keon Broxton (in Triple-A)

The Brewers had interest in Gray last season. I didn’t randomly pick them as a trade partner. There’s been interest here in the not-too-distant past. The Yankees and Brewers were the two teams vying for Sonny at the deadline last year. The A’s wanted a close-to-MLB center fielder in the trade package and the Yankees made Dustin Fowler available while the Brewers reportedly said no to Lewis Brinson, and that was that. (Brinson went to the Marlins in the Yelich trade over the winter.)

Furthermore, Brewers pitching coach Derek Johnson was Gray’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt back in the day and the two are very close. “He’s a pretty special person to me. He was one of those father-figure types you hear people talk about — especially at an important part of my life,” said Gray to Mark Chiarelli in 2016. The Brewers need a starter, they have outfield depth to spare, they had interest in Gray last year, and he’s close with their pitching coach. And he’ll remain under team control as an arbitration-eligible player last year. It fits.

Why Broxton?

Broxton. (Stacy Revere/Getty)

The Yankees went from having plenty of outfield depth to starting Shane Robinson in five of their last ten games in a hurry. Aaron Judge is injured and it doesn’t seem he’ll return in the original three-week time frame. Clint Frazier is out with post-concussion migraines and there’s no telling when he’ll return. Giancarlo Stanton is nursing a tight hamstring. Billy McKinney was traded away. Jacoby Ellsbury? Hah.

The Yankees really need another outfielder and Broxton, while flawed, is an upgrade over Robinson. The 28-year-old is a very good defensive center fielder and he’s a right-handed hitter with a history of punishing left-handed pitchers. The career big league numbers:

PA AVG/OBP/SLG wRC+ HR BB% K%
vs. RHP 529 .215/.297/.404 82 22 9.1% 36.9%
vs. LHP 245 .242/.362/.449 115 9 15.9% 35.4%
Total 774 .223/.317/.418 93 31 11.2% 36.4%

Yeah, Broxton strikes out a ton and the Yankees don’t really need more strikeouts to the lineup, but they also don’t need more Shane Robinson in the lineup either. Robinson, despite hitting the home run last week and having that tough sac bunt attempt turned walk Sunday night, can’t hit. Broxton will at least draw walks and hit lefties, on top of the defensive upgrade.

The Brewers have no spot for Broxton on their roster and he’s spent pretty much the entire season in Triple-A, where he’s hitting .260/.329/.422 (95 wRC+) in 310 plate appearances. This is his final minor league option year as well, and it’s hard to see where he fits on next year’s roster. The guy is already 28 and he’ll be out of options next year. Chances are the Brewers will be looking to trade him over the winter or next spring before losing him on waivers.

The Yankees could replace Robinson with Broxton right away and, at the very least, platoon him with Brett Gardner. The Judge injury and Stanton’s lingering hamstring issue means he’d probably get a fair amount of playing time the next few weeks. The Brewers don’t have a spot for him and it is unlikely he’s in their long-term plans. Broxton is an expendable piece for Milwaukee and an upgrade over Robinson for the Yankees.

Why Brown?

The 23-year-old Brown was a fifth round pick in 2016 and he is currently in Double-A, where he has a 2.34 ERA (3.40 FIP) with 24.4% strikeouts, 7.2% walks, and 56.4% grounders. Great numbers! Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank Brown among Milwaukee’s top ten prospects in their recent update though, and MLB.com ranks him as the 12th best prospect in the system. Their scouting report:

He pitches with a 92-95 mph fastball to both sides of the plate … He’s adept at manipulating the pitch, too, as he’ll turn it over to create sinking action at times while reaching back for extra velo with his four-seamer as dictated by the situation. His curveball, though currently underused, is a plus pitch, and he also has feel for a promising changeup that contrasts nicely against his heater … Brown’s detractors believe that he’ll end up in the bullpen on account of his high-effort delivery.

Brown fits the mold of a quality ‘tweener pitching prospect. Can he master a changeup? Will the delivery hold up as a starter? If not, he’ll end up a reliever, potentially a very good one. Brown’s a notch below where Dillon Tate was before the Yankees traded him, and he’s about two notches below where Chance Adams was in 2016, just for reference. The results are better than the scouting report, but the scouting report is still pretty good. Here’s some video:

The trade boils down to Gray for a fourth outfielder and a second tier pitching prospect. Considering what the Yankees gave up to get Gray, it’s a big net loss. Sonny is a sunk cost though. The Yankees made the trade and he’s pitched terribly. They can either stick it out and try to make it work — that wouldn’t be crazy, in my opinion — or cut their losses and turn him into usable pieces. Broxton helps now and Brown could help later.

For all intents and purposes, the trade is Gray for Brown. Broxton is a spare part without a ton of trade value. He’s closer to 30 than 25 and he’ll be out of options next year, and he’s been unable to carve out a big league role despite extending playing time in 2016 and 2017. Guys like that don’t fetch much on the trade market, even a reclamation project starter like Gray. Sonny’s track record and extra year of control have real value.

The Brewers get a starter with a strong track record and get to reunite him with his college pitching coach, and they give up an extraneous outfielder and a good pitching prospect from a deep farm system. The Yankees give up an out-of-favor pitcher, upgrade their short-term outfield situation, and add a pitching prospect who could help as soon as next year. Also, trading Gray opens a bullpen spot for Tommy Kahnle. It all makes sense to me, but, then again, my trade proposal sucks.

DotF: Frazier, Wade, and Drury all stay hot in Scranton’s win

by Leave a Comment

Earlier today the Yankees acquired IF Wendell Rijo from the Brewers to complete last month’s Erik Kratz trade, the team announced. Rijo has been assigned to High-A Tampa. He was a good prospect with the Red Sox a few years ago, but not anymore. The soon-to-be 23-year-old was hitting .200/.304/.375 (94 wRC+) in 93 Double-A plate appearances before the trade. Dudes like Kratz usually don’t fetch much.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (9-7 win over Syracuse in 11 innings)

  • CF Clint Frazier: 3-5, 2 R, 1 BB, 1 K — now hitting .322/.400/.577 in 37 Triple-A games
  • SS Tyler Wade: 3-6, 3 R, 1 3B, 1 RBI, 2 K, 1 SB — tripled in the go-ahead run in the 11th … 22-for-60 (.367) with four doubles, one triple, and two homers in his last 13 games
  • 3B Brandon Drury: 3-5, 2 R, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 1 SB — now hitting .353/.463/.511 in 38 Triple-A games
  • 1B Ryan McBroom: 1-5, 1 2B, 3 RBI, 2 K
  • RF Billy McKinney: 1-5, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K
  • 2B Abi Avelino: 1-5, 1 RBI, 1 K, 2 E (fielding, throwing)
  • RHP David Hale: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HB, 8/4 GB/FB — 57 of 98 pitches were strikes (58%) … teams always need dudes like Hale to chew up innings in the minors, but man, I am so happy the Yankees can plug guys like Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga into the rotation when they need a starter rather than someone like David Hale
  • RHP Cody Carroll: 1.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HB, 1/1 GB/FB — 20 of 38 pitches were strikes (53%) … had allowed three runs total in his previous 13 appearances and 18.2 innings

[Read more…]

DotF: Sauer dominates in Staten Island’s Opening Day win

by Leave a Comment

The Yankees made a minor trade today. RHP Chad Whitmer was sent to the Brewers for an undisclosed sum of international bonus money, the team announced. Whitmer was a senior sign as last year’s tenth round pick and he’s spent this entire season in Extended Spring Training. The Yankees started with a $4,983,500 bonus pool for the 2018-19 international signing period and can max it out at $8,721,125. They’ve already been connected to several top prospects.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (14-2 win over Syracuse)

  • CF Clint Frazier: 1-5, 2 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K — how many MLB teams would he start for right now?
  • RF Tyler Wade: 2-6, 1 R
  • 3B Brandon Drury: 4-6, 3 R, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 E (throwing) — now hitting .344/.455/.508 in 37 Triple-A games
  • 1B Ryan McBroom: 5-6, 2 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI — 16-for-34 (.471) with two doubles, one triple, and three homers in eight games since rejoining the team
  • DH Billy McKinney: 2-6, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI — four homers in his last six games and nine homers in his last 17 games … homer binge is just in time for the trade deadline!
  • SS Abi Avelino: 2-3, 1 R, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 E (throwing)
  • LF Mark Payton: 3-5, 3 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 1 K — second career multi-homer game
  • LHP Josh Rogers: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 1 HB, 8/5 GB/FB — 67 of 92 pitches were strikes (73%) … great rebound start after getting smacked around last time out
  • RHP Tommy Kahnle: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 1/0 GB/FB — six of 13 pitches were strikes
  • RHP Gio Gallegos: 1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HR, 1/1 GB/FB — eight of 11 pitches were strikes

[Read more…]

Yankees trade Erik Kratz to Brewers, release Adam Lind

by Leave a Comment

The Kratzken. (Gregory Shamus/Getty)

Triple-A Scranton lost two big league veterans today. The Yankees announced they have traded catcher Erik Kratz to the Brewers for cash or a player to be named later and released first baseman Adam Lind. Catcher Wilkin Castillo was signed out of an independent league yesterday to replace Kratz.

Releasing Lind is the more significant move. It tells us the Yankees are confident Greg Bird is fully recovered following ankle surgery. He is expected to join the team tomorrow, so that’s fun. Lind was essentially lefty hitting first base insurance in case Bird’s rehab was slowed or he suffered a setback.

As for Kratz, I wonder if he had an opt-out in his contract coming up (June 1st?), and indicated he was planning to use it. If so, the trade means the Yankees get something in return, and something is better than nothing. The Brewers have some catcher issues — Stephen Vogt is done for the season with shoulder surgery — hence the trade for Kratz.

With Kratz gone, Kyle Higashioka is the unquestioned third catcher on the depth chart. He is already on the 40-man roster and was probably third on the depth chart even while Kratz was in the organization. The Yankees have not yet announced a roster move to clear a spot for Bird, though Tyler Austin to Triple-A seems likely. Austin would effectively replace Lind as the team’s first baseman.