Projecting the Yankees payroll

December 17, 2008 by Joe Pawlikowski 124 Comments

Probably the most discussed topic over the past few days/week has been the Yankees payroll, specifically as it relates to the team’s ability to sign another bat this off-season. Yesterday we discussed why the Yankees might not have as much free payroll as some assume. Still, they’re the Yankees and until we hear it from the boss, there’s no reason to believe that there’s a set ceiling for how much they’ll spend.

One aspect of payroll which has generated quite a bit of back and forth has been the team’s spending this year vs. the future. Some commenters have noted that if we just don’t re-sign Pettitte and forgo the Cameron trade, we could us that money to sign a big bat like Teixeira. After all, he’s looking at somewhere around $20 million per season, which is about what Cameron and Pettitte would make combined. (Of course, there are other mitigating factors in the Cam/Pettitte situation, like the Brewers taking on Igawa and some of his salary. But I digress.) The problem is that $20 million for 2009 is worlds different than, say, $168 million over eight years. That’s a bit tougher pill to swallow.

The advantage to being the Yankees is having enough money to do what they want, when they want. When a premium talent hits the open market, they can use their financial resources to lock him up to a deal. So when a player like Teixeira becomes a free agent, you know the Yankees will be involved. There is said to be some interest in Mark Teixeira. What the Yankees have to decide is whether it’s worth the payroll hit they’d take this year in order to add him to the lineup for the next eight years.

Here’s how the payroll scheme looks now:

Yankees Future Payroll

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
A-Rod	32	32	31	29	28	25	21	20	20
Sabathia	23*	23*	23*	23#	23#	23#	23#
Burnett	16.5*	16.5*	16.5*	16.5*	16.5*
Cano	6	9	10	14@	15@
Marte	3.75	4	4	4@
Swish	5.3	6.75	9	10.25@
Jorge	13.1	13.1	13.1
Jeter	20	21
Mo	15	15
Damon	13
Matsui	13
Molina	1
Wang	5
Nady	> 3.3
Burney	> .85
~Total	171	140	107	95	82.5	48	44	20	20

* AAV of contract
# Opt-out possibility
@ Team option

Now let’s see how that looks with Teixeira added in on an eight-year, $168 million deal.

Yankees Future Payroll w/ Tex

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
A-Rod	32	32	31	29	28	25	21	20	20
Tex	25	20	22.5	22.5	22.5	22.5	22.5	22.5
Sabathia	23	23	23	23**	23**	23**	23**
Burnett	16.5	16.5	16.5	16.5	16.5
Cano	6	9	10	14*	15*
Marte	3.75	4	4	4*
Swish	5.3	6.75	9	10.25*
Jorge	13.1	13.1	13.1
Jeter	20	21
Mo	15	15
Damon	13
Matsui	13
Molina	1
Wang	5
Nady	6.55
Melky	1.4
Burney	1.25
~Total	206.35	160.35	129.1	119.25	105	70.5	66.5	42.5	20

Remember, in each of these cases the team will be facing arbitration years for their now-young players. Hell, Austin Jackson could hit free agency after the 2016 season if he debuts this year or opens with the team in 2010. So while the numbers might look friendly now, they could see some serious increases as our youngsters earn the right to be paid better.

Like yesterday’s payroll post, I cooked this up so we can better guide the comment discussions. We’re talking about payroll a lot, so we should have all the facts at hand.

** Again, I didn’t include Igawa’s contract, Brackman’s money, or any other deals I neglected yesterday. I guess this just relates to the Opening Day payroll.

http://liberalmusings.wordpress.com Pablo Zevallos

To think that, after a decade, we actually may get back to a sub-$150M payroll soon.
- http://www.riveraveblues.com Ben K.
  
  No reason to though. If the Yanks can afford to spend all the money, they should. That’s been my mantra the whole time.
  - TurnTwo
    
    exactly. i dont get these people who think the yankees need to pretend they are a small market team, or think the yankees need to try to limit spending because analysts on ESPN or GMs from other organizations or fans of other teams complain that the yankees spend too much and its not fair.
    
    if you have it, spend it. just spend it wisely.
    - Sweet Dick Willie
      
      just spend it wisely
      
      That has been a problem. That and bidding against themselves, which is part of the same problem.
      - TurnTwo
        
        yeah, but the bidding they did (if you’re referring to Sabathia) served its purpose, too. noone even bothered to get involved really after Cashman let it be known the Yankees werent screwing around.
        
        if they can afford the salary, doesnt matter if they bid against themselves… target a player who’s worth the cash, and get said player.
        
        Yank Crank 20
        
        The Sabathia one makes sense, but I never understood why we bid against ourselves for A-Rod. He opted out, we cut ties, then when he supposedly came crawling back we gave him even more than he had made before when nobody else was bidding for him.
        
        Never understood that. Does anybody?
        
        TurnTwo
        
        i would guess the ARod contract is a whole ‘nother issue.
        
        it basically pays for itself in merchandising, ticket sales and whatever else is involved with having potentially the greatest player who ever played the game, which then as an organization you are buying into his immortaility as a baseball great who will eventually be breaking records, etc.
        
        Bill
        
        ARod probably could’ve gotten more on the open market. We gave him a great deal, but he certainly didn’t rob us blind. He would’ve gotten more had he signed an extension and he would’ve gotten more had he really tested the free agent market.
        
        Yes he did come crawling back after making a mistake by opting out, but at the same time he wasn’t going to take pennies to come back. Scott Boras told him if he opted out the Yankees would just pay more to get him because of the competition of the free market and the leverage it provides. Once ARod realized that wasn’t the case he came back and took less to do so, but at the same time still wanted a deal that paid him his market value. He wasn’t going to take a big pay cut after the amazing year he had.
        
        Mike Pop
        
        I dont think he would have gotten 300 million anywhere else
- D.B.H.O.F. the word conservationist
  
  Yeah I do not see that happening anytime soon. We must use our greatest asset which is money.
  
  Good work up of salary info to the RAB guys. A nice useful chart. Not all charts are bad charts :)
  
  BTW Mr many names I just replied to your inaccurate assessment of my post from last night, just saw it. The post about Yankees just buying players in the dynasty years etc. Not sure where you got your info from.
  - http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside
    
    I saw that. The summation of your post was that the Yankees didn’t “buy” the titles by claiming that it’s not “buying” marquee, big money guys if we’re just exchanging one big money guy for another, i.e. “Paulies’ not a big money free agent because we only swapped him for Roberto Kelly, who was also a big money free agent” or “Clemens doesn’t count as a big money guy because we only traded Wells for him, who was also a big money guy”, etc. etc.
    
    All of which is nothing but spin. The reality is:
    A) before the title years, we used our significant financial resources to go acquire, either through free agency or trade and extension, some of the best stars in baseball signed to lucrative deals, making us the most expensive team in baseball; guys like Jimmy Key, Jack McDowell, Danny Tartabull, Jim Abbott, etc.
    B) during the title years, we used our significant financial resources to go acquire, either through free agency or trade and extension, some of the best stars in baseball signed to lucrative deals, making us the most expensive team in baseball; guys like Tino Martinez, David Cone, David Wells, and Paul O’Neill, etc.
    C) since the title years, we used our significant financial resources to go acquire, either through free agency or trade and extension, some of the best stars in baseball signed to lucrative deals, making us the most expensive team in baseball; guys like Alex Rodriguez, Mike Mussina, Hideki Matsui, and Gary Sheffield, etc.
    
    You’re trying to draw this great analytical distinction around the dynasty years of a shift in philosophy or a change in tactics that just wasn’t there. Throughout all of the past two decades, we’ve constantly
    A) signed elite free agents to big money deals,
    B) traded prospects for other teams impending elite free agents and then extended them, using our financial muscle to pry premium talent away from other clubs, and
    C) resigned our own internal free agents to big money deals to keep them off the market.
    
    The philosophy has never changed, only the results have changed. Mainly due to our good luck during the title years, and the widespread financial weakness of many other clubs during the title years leaving the league with fewer good teams ready to compete with us.
    
    —————————-
    
    Oh, and btw, since we’re in this new era of good feelings and no intentional disrespect, can you PLEASE stop condescendingly referring to me as “Mr many names” or some other derivatieve thereof?
    
    You have a name. It’s Donnie. I have a name. It’s Tommie. I call you by your name all the time, out of respect for you and your wishes. You constantly call me (and others) childish nicknames. It’s juvenile. Can we stop doing that? Thank you.
    - http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside
      
      Sorry, “some other derivative thereof?”
    - Mike Pop
      
      Jimmy Key whats he like 45 ? YOu see the game last night, it sucked, didnt it suck?????
      - http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside
        
        Gene Tenace at the plate… WHAMMY!!!
    - D.B.H.O.F. the word conservationist
      
      “The summation of your post was that the Yankees didn’t “buy” the titles by claiming that it’s not “buying” marquee, big money guys if we’re just exchanging one big money guy for another, i.e. “Paulies’ not a big money free agent because we only swapped him for Roberto Kelly, who was also a big money free agent” or “Clemens doesn’t count as a big money guy because we only traded Wells for him, who was also a big money guy”, etc. etc.”
      
      I think you missed my point. Possibly I misstated it, or you read into it wrong or a combo of both.
      
      My point was we payed guys what they were worth then. Our home grown guys were the core for the most part (as much as any other team, if not more) and we added on where need be. We did not just give guys blank checks. We did not bid against ourselves. We did not give guys 61 million more than the next highest bid plus a no trade deal (of if 61 percent more sounds better for this argument)
      We were not held hostage by our own players for the most part. I think that changed. If we are really willing to do some of the deals we are currently doing what is the moral, baseball, or biz high ground to NOT go after Manny?
      
      “You’re trying to draw this great analytical distinction around the dynasty years of a shift in philosophy or a change in tactics that just wasn’t there. Throughout all of the past two decades, we’ve constantly
      A) signed elite free agents to big money deals,
      B) traded prospects for other teams impending elite free agents and then extended them, using our financial muscle to pry premium talent away from other clubs, and
      C) resigned our own internal free agents to big money deals to keep them off the market.”
      
      I agree and disagree with parts of this.
      
      A) Yes we did that (never said we did not), but not to where we outbid ourselves.
      
      B) Yes, I agree and we should do this as I stated as long as ownership is willing to put up their money to get the top talent why would we NOT do this as long as they are sound baseball moves?
      
      C) Yes, actually I think I implied this, and see nothing wrong with doing so.
      
      I am not against free market system, but I am against foolishly spending just for spendings sake. I think the A-Rod (post opt out, the deal we got in trade for him was a great one) and CC deals were both done in a foolish manner.
      
      “The philosophy has never changed, only the results have changed. Mainly due to our good luck during the title years, and the widespread financial weakness of many other clubs during the title years leaving the league with fewer good teams ready to compete with us.”
      
      This is your best argument on the subject. If you just said this, I may or may not agree with you but this was the most clear example of what you were trying to say.
      
      As for the name thing. I seriously have a touch of dyslexia and when that many letters are jumbled together like that I don’t even read it. If you prefer to be called Tommie cool. If we are talking preferences I like DBHOF better than Donnie as that is not really my real name. Ya underdig?
Ari

What you don’t mention, and I think this is a huge point, is that if the Yanks get Tex they could then look to sell high on Nady, who is coming off a career year. Matsui is locked into the DH spot, and Tex would take over 1B forcing Swisher to the outfield. That would mean that the team would have Nady, Swisher, and Damon competing for 2 corner outfield spots. No one is likely to want to trade for Swisher coming off a terrible year, or Damon, who is owed too much money and is well past his prime. Nady, on the other hand, is coming off perhaps his best year to date. If the Yanks do get Tex they could try to swap Nady for a couple of non-pitching prospects, of which the system does not have a lot, thus trimming payroll somewhat, and deepening the farm.
- http://liberalmusings.wordpress.com Pablo Zevallos
  
  but that isn’t a sure thing. Swisher (+D)-Damon(-D)-Nady(avg. D) w/ Tex at 1B and Matsui at DH is a plausible lineup. No need for a trade.
  - Ari
    
    Yeah, but in that scenario I’d rather have Gardner’s +D in center and pocket the prospects from Nady, assuming that we get back real value guys close to major league ready. We’re dumping Damon, Matsui, and Nady after the season anyway (unless we resign Nady), which means there will be lots of holes in the outfield. If we get a guy who has real star potential and is say a year away from the majors (Prospect X), then come next year you could rebuild the whole outfield with, say Austin Jackson, Prospect X, and, I don’t know, Matt Holliday (who will be a free agent). All of a sudden the outfield has become younger, cheaper, and probably better as well (the defense would certainly be better). I Swisher has a bounce back year this year then maybe you keep Prospect X or A-Jax in the minors, or trade one of them to fill another need, or pass on Holliday and play both of them along with Swisher, or you could sell high on Swisher to fill a need or bring back yet more talent for the farm. All of this seems better than playing with Swisher, Damon, Nady, Matsui and Tex for one year, after which we will lose Damon, Matsui, and Nady anyway without getting any return.
- Ari
  
  Just to add to my comment for a sec, we could really use some blue chip prospects for the outfield, and perhaps at shortstop. If Nady could bring back a couple of guys that fit that description then signing Tex and dealing Nady seems like an absolute no brainer.
  - A.D.
    
    that would smell like a trade with the Braves
    - Ari
      
      If the Yankees could get either Schafer or Heyward back for Nady it would be absolutely amazing, but I’m not sure that the Braves have any need for Nady. They don’t seem to have any incentive to make the trade. It would probably make more sense to look at the teams that are in on Tex and Manny, since they are probably the ones most willing to trade for an established outfield bat.
      - Mike Pop
        
        They are not getting Schafer or Heyward for Nady
        
        http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.
        
        Tommy Hanson, Jason Heyward, Jo-Jo Reyes and Jeff Franceour for Nady and teh Melky. Throw in Igawa if we have too.
        
        Mike Pop
        
        Idk if I give up Igawa there… Are we getting enough ?
        
        Reggie C.
        
        How about Gorkys Hernandez? Not much pop, but good players eventually develop some sort of plate production. Gorkys’s calling card is his +D. I could see the Braves trade Gorkys b/c they’re CF for the future is Schafer.
        
        Mike Pop
        
        Gorkys is pretty far away though right ? I would want someone who we could pair with A-Jax in 2010. Would be awesome
- chriistopher
  
  before they trade Nady – the most likly guy not to get hurt – because the team Matsui — has missed the majority of the past three seasons, playing in 51 games 2006 41games and 91 games at 2008.
- Tom Zig
  
  why not just put Nady in center, damon in left, swish in right. Gardner and Melky as late inning defensive replacements and pinch runners. I’d love to have Teix, but i don’t think its likely. Maybe sign manny for 3 years as DH?
  - ceciguante
    
    i don’t think nady in CF is realistic. i can’t imagine he has the range to cover CF, requires too much speed, and we can’t afford to play a minus defensive guy there.
    
    manny is a malcontent waiting to happen — he can turn off the switch at any time for lord knows what reasons. terrible investment for that reason alone. we also have the matsui DH logjam for this year, and we don’t know if other guys are going to need DH at bats already (damon to keep his legs fresh; posada in case his throwing doesn’t return). signing manny is begging for roster logjams.
    
    i don’t see why gardner can’t get 80 or 100 games in CF, rotating damon to CF on occasion and getting swish some OF games that way. we can even go late inning defense with gardner in CF, melky in LF or RF. i’ve got gardner ahead of melky and swisher in my personal depth chart, for the D. i hear swish is good defensively at 1B, but not in OF.
    - Bo
      
      nady in cf???
      
      and to think people bitched about damons and bernies d there
A.D.

I have a sheet I built that pulls out the 40 man for the next 3 years, and tries to project arb raises, based on a 109% avg I found, and a bulk increase for first time jumps in regulars… I’ll email it to you guys tomorrow…if I remember.

Its got next year at ~160, ’11 at 140, without adding anyone… so a little less rosy
DP

I have a question. I’m for being smart about using money and whatnot. But theoretically lets say the Yankees had a crystal ball, found the 25 best players and signed them all. Do they have a limit to the budget? This is what I never understand. They’ve made bad moves, and they are overpaying some guys, but if you look at Teixeira as a singular case, how can money be the only reason to not sign him?
- Ksturnz
  
  I can see Teixeira aging fairly well through his next contract. He is no Helton.
  - Bo
    
    Helton was a great athlete. The guy played QB in college. Sometimes the body just breaks down. No one questioned the Helton deal over anything besides money when he signed it because hes such a good athlete and played a position that wasn’t phsyically demanding.
Ksturnz

nice!! these charts are like what they do for basketball teams…

Pete Abraham says it is not going to happen with Teixeira, so clearly it won’t happen, though.

i like the: +Tex, Swish to RF, Sell ^Nady, Hughes start, Cabrera start plan, too. Hughes has nothing left to prove in my mind’s eye; just has to stay healthy and trust his stuff. why spend 10.4 mil for what we know will be mediocre/avg when we can spend .4 mil for what may be spectacular?
- http://www.riveraveblues.com Ben K.
  
  Pete Abraham says it is not going to happen with Teixeira, so clearly it won’t happen, though.
  
  Pete says he doesn’t think it’s going to happen. His most recent post is his own opinion and not some anonymously sourced report. He’s been wrong before; we all have been. Don’t take that as gospel.
http://liberalmusings.wordpress.com Pablo Zevallos

See: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....delli.html

If this is true (big if) the Yanks ought to move quickly and sign Rocco.
- Brooklyn Ed
  
  I think the Yanks dropped out, which it made them talked to the Brewers. I think?
- Reggie C.
  
  Rocco’s body chemistry continues to mystify doctors. Now its a misdiagnosis?
  - http://www.new.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/profile.php?id=594331910&ref=name Jamal G.
    
    Misdiagnoses happen much more often than one would be comfortable being aware of.
Brooklyn Ed

signing Tex would derail the Sox.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/s.....rail-BoSox

:D
- deadrody
  
  And, really, is there a BETTER reason to sign him than that ???
Phil McCracken

You also gotta factor Jeter in to the long term picture even though his contract is up soon.

It will be interesting to see what his agent uses for his argument this time around, since he piggybacked on ARod’s deal for the 1st free agency period.
Phil McCracken

I’m also not so sure I’d go after Teixeira this year, because with Damon, Matsui, and Nady off the books next year, outfield is going to be as wide open as our rotation was this year.

Personally I wanted Holliday this year over all the other bats on the FA market. Next year I’d like to see him signed as a FA.
- D.B.H.O.F. the word conservationist
  
  “I’m also not so sure I’d go after Teixeira this year, because with Damon, Matsui, and Nady off the books next year, outfield is going to be as wide open as our rotation was this year.”
  
  I agree with this. I also think the OF market might be worse than the free agent pitching market this year. This might be the best free agent pitching market in 5 or 6 years minimum.
Simon B.

Damn. Ben. You really don’t want to give up on Teixeira, huh?
- http://www.riveraveblues.com Ben K.
  
  This one was Joe’s post. I’m less high on Teixeira, but I still think he’d be a good fit.
  - Simon B.
    
    You’re right. Sorry.
    
    Damn, Joe. You really don’t want to give up on Teixeira, huh?
marcus

Shouldn’t we actually go after Teix?

Considering the outfielder contracts and others that are up after this season, shouldn’t we just go after Teix and have one big payroll temporarily for bigger gains in the future? Our future looks like it could potentially save us a lot of cash in the outfield for a few years.

I think an A-Rod and Teix investment would be worth it.
- Chip
  
  Until you argue next year that we should sign Holliday to a crazy huge contract because he’s the only good OF on the market
  - RollingWave
    
    Crawford and Bay are both FA next year too, and a good number of decent vet stop gaps avalible as well, I highly doubt Holliday would commend the same hype, and he’d be a year older, and he needs to prove he can hit outside of Coors first too.
    
    just look at the difference of similar age comps on BR should give you a good idea.
    
    Teix
    Carlos Delgado (935)
    Kent Hrbek (925)
    Fred McGriff (913)
    Jim Thome (911)
    Will Clark (910)
    Jeff Bagwell (909)
    Willie McCovey (906) *
    Richie Sexson (904)
    Shawn Green (901)
    Paul Konerko (899)
    
    Holliday
    
    Wally Berger (949)
    Lance Berkman (929)
    Magglio Ordonez (924)
    Chick Hafey (921) *
    Dave Parker (920)
    Fred Lynn (916)
    Larry Walker (914)
    Tim Salmon (910)
    Bobby Abreu (910)
    Mike Sweeney (908)
    
    Holliday’s list isn’t anything to sneeze at either, but clearly, Teix is the better list, with a all time great in McCovey and some other guys that’ll probably make it (Thome, maybe Bagwell / Delgado / McGriff )
    - http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside
      
      And, while Holliday is the big name on the OF market (I’m still not ready to put Crawford on the list until we have good reason to believe that the Rays don’t exercise his option), we may not need him (nor is the OF picture as bleak as it seems.)
      
      Say we add Tex now (and nothing else, i.e. no Cameron addition). We’d go into 2009 with one of these two lineups:
      C-Posada
      1B-Teixeira
      2B-Cano
      SS-Jeter
      3B-ARod
      LF-Damon
      CF-Swisher
      RF-Nady
      DH-Matsui
      
      OR, if we refuse to put Swisher in center, and we trade either Matsui or Nady (let’s say Nady, since most of the board seems to think he’s more moveable since he’s younger and can play the field:
      
      C-Posada
      1B-Teixeira
      2B-Cano
      SS-Jeter
      3B-ARod
      LF-Damon
      CF-Gardner
      RF-Swisher
      DH-Matsui
      
      Either way, doesn’t much matter. Barring us keeping and resigning Nady (which seems like a longshot, IMO), Damon, Matsui, Nady (and Cameron, if we were to go back down that road) are all assuredly gone after the year, but Austin Jackson could be ready to at least split time with Gardner. So, for 2010, we’d look at this:
      
      C-
      1B-Teixeira (S)
      2B-Cano (R)
      SS-Jeter (R)
      3B-ARod (R)
      LF-
      CF- Jackson (R) or Gardner (L)
      RF-Swisher (S)
      DH-Posada (S)
      
      We’re only looking at two potential holes, one at catcher and one at one corner outfield position. we could eschew Holliday for a cheaper, smaller stopgap type of player in LF, since we’d still have our Jeter-Cano-ARod-Texy heart of the order core…
      
      … maybe something like a Marlon Byrd or a Jayson Werth?
      
      … or possibly look for a replacement at SS (J.J. Hardy?) and just move Jeter to LF, where he’s likely headed anyway?
      
      (Oh, and as for the catcher, we again would be looking at a short-term option, as we have significant catching depth in the organization.)
      - Mike Pop
        
        You dont think Posada can catch in 2010 ?
        
        http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside
        
        Meh, I’m being proactive.
Matt M

this ‘selling high’ on Nady might not bring back a return that would be worth the sacrifice. There’s a glut of corner outfielders out there on the market! none of them are flying like hot cakes

take your pick. manny, dunn, abreu, rivera etc.
the bigger names might still command a lot of dough, but abreu’s gonna have a hard time arguing that he’s worth more than ibanez’s 10 mil AAV.

if you were a GM. would you give up something of merit for a year of X (albeit at 3.3 mil) and then have him leave for FA (boras)?? Of would you rather keep your prospects and sign a juan rivera (whose career #’s are exactly similiar to nady’s) to a longer, cheaper contract in this market
- Mike Pop
  
  Nady might not get us as much as people think. If we could get a young cost controlled outfielder or pitcher with upside for him I am all for it but I dont think we could get alot for him. I support dealing him in the right deal but we need to get something of great value to the team back. A young cost controlled outfielder with upside or a young starter with upside is what I would deal him for but I dont think teams would give that up for him.
Josh

While it’s not my money to spend, Tex seems to make sense. Adding that type of bat to the lineup would make the Cameron trade unnecessary because they could afford to have a bat like Gardner (my preference) or Melky in the 9 hole. Then you keep the offer open to Pettitte (what’s 10 million between friends), but if he decides not to sign then Hughes, Aceves, Kennedy and the proverbial cast of hundreds can copmete forthe 5th spot in the rotation. Only problem is that Joba and Hughes (assuming he gets the last spot) will have to have their innings watched, so you might need to give each of them a start off once in a while. Regradless, it makes sense. If your 5th starter is the reason you miss the playoffs, you probably had bigger problems on your roster. Besides, I’m still a pretty big veliever in Hughes.
Chip

Wow, front-loading A-Rod’s contract was a very smart move. I can’t imagine paying A-Rod 30 million dollars when he’s 40 (yeah he’ll get the homerun money then but I don’t believe that counts towards the team salary but let me know if I”m wrong).

Also, Cano and Wang will be hitting FA in 2013 and 2012 I believe. I really wouldn’t be surprised to see a long-term deal worked out if Wang has a great season. Also, you can pretty much assume that Joba and Phil’s arbitration won’t be very good to the payroll. I’d like to see them lock up Joba at the very least in a long-term deal.
- Mike Pop
  
  10 year deal = Negotiating Fail
  - Chip
    
    If he’s still considered the best offensive 3B near the end of the deal, it’ll look like a genius move. Thus far, we’ve gotten a pretty good deal out of it and he doesn’t look like he’s slowing anytime soon. I mean if he can put up something like .290/.380/.500 in the last few seasons, you have to consider it a good investment. Of course, one big injury or a huge decline make them look like idiots but thus far it’s not been so bad and due to the front-loading, he won’t kill the payroll towards the end.
Ivan

Yo did anybody see the raps on NoMaas?

To me though all of them are wack with the exception of the third one. I thought the 3rd one was mad hard.
Joe B.

So let me get this straight: the Yankees are willing to spend $10MM each on Pettitte and Cameron, but won’t bump the extra $10MM to go for Tex over Cameron? Doesn’t seem to make sense, especially considering next year Matsui and Damon’s contracts come off the books (even if you’re thinking of adding Holliday), and Pettitte would most likely be gone in favor of Hughes – that’s about $36MM right there.

Tex seems like such, such a smart investment, even if it might strain the payroll a bit this year. Aren’t they getting a luxury tax/revenue sharing break from the new Stadium, anyway?
- http://www.riveraveblues.com Ben K.
  
  Yeah, this is where I come out on this issue. It’s not that much more for one year and makes a lot of sense going forward. Strikes me as Carlos Beltran Part II.
  - ceciguante
    
    i pretty much agree. i say sign pettitte and tex, and rest.
    
    not only does our lineup rock with tex, he lets us give gardner games in CF and end up with excellent defense at both positions (big upgrades from melky and giambi). all told, we’d have a team with big upgrades on offense, defense and SP this year, AND a younger squad, AND a chance to mix in more youth in coming years. it would really be an exciting team, projectable for years.
    
    and don’t forget that if we feel there’s a logjam in OF, we can move swish or nady pretty much whenever we want. might have to eat a bit of salary to move swish, but we’re not locked in to big salary on those guys, and they have some value. there’s flexibility there.
    
    we’d also squash LAA and BOS by signing tex….there’s just so many reasons to sign this guy (but i still wouldn’t go 10 years, that’s just nuts).
  - deadrody
    
    Exactly. As in if they DON’T sign him, they will be kicking themselves for years to come. And spending that money anyhow, but on players like Raul Mondesi and Kenny Lofton.
    
    All in the name of “fiscal responsibility” for a single season.
    
    BRILLIANT!!!
- Simon B.
  
  Seriously, this doesn’t make a lick of sense. It’s amazing how people can be fooled by year-by-year spending. It seems like the same mentality where fans think frontloading is a good thing.
  
  It’s very simple.
  
  $200 million (Teixeira) > $20 million (Cameron and Pettitte)
  - deadrody
    
    Maybe you don’t grasp the fact that the Yankees aren’t giving Texeira $200 Million. They are agreeing to pay him that much over 8 or 9 years.
    
    Mark my words, the money that it would take to sign Texeira will seem like pocket change by the time anyone is worried about him breaking down.
    - Simon B.
      
      The extra years are a burden, not a bonus. All players, but especially those that are approaching 30 are subject to extreme volatility. For every stacked year from this vantage point, there lies risk of a major falloff. All fans realize that to some extent, but I don’t think most realize just how risky it is.
      
      Furthermore, in Tex’s case, he is a firstbaseman. He does not have major value in his position. I’m so fucking sick of hearing Tex’s defense as a selling point for getting him. If he was really that valuable defensively, he wouldn’t be playing firstbase. It is the easiest position to fill, and his offensively stats are very good for his position, not great, and not worthy of a monster longterm contract. To sum up, I think Tex is majorly overrated. Once again, I’m not saying he’s a bad player. I think he’s very good. But I think his value has been inflated.
      
      That covers my skepticism of Tex, but really, my main beef is at fans who seem desperate to try to justify this contract on such a ridiculous basis. Do you honestly fail to see why giving a combined $20 million to two players for short-term one year contracts is the same burden as giving $200 million for ten years to the same player?
  - thisisthedavid
    
    By the time the contract is over their will be first basemen making 30 million …
ryan

with the yankees entire outfield free of contracts next year they should hold off on purchasing another bat in a long term contract. Rumor has it Matt Hollidays dad is a huge yankee fan and he’s gonna be a free agent after 09. Hopefully one of Melky, Gardner or Jackson stick in the center field and we can sign holliday and retain Nady if he stays productive.
- Bo
  
  I dont think anyone signs because their dad rooted for the team 40 yrs ago.
  
  If they offer Holliday the ost next yr they’ll sign him.
  - http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside
    
    Bingo.
deadrody

Absolutely hysterical. OMG – Austin Jackson could be FA eligible by 2016. OH NOES!!!! You mean in the same year as the Yankees would have a whopping $41 Mil in salary committed ??!?!!?!?

I would add that under that scenario the Yankees – 8 years down the road – would have less committed to ARod and Texeira than they do RIGHT NOW to ARod and Jeter.

That should tell you about all you need to know. Those numbers make it infinitely clear that the Yankees can afford Texeira, and considering the age of the players on the list, signing a young hitter should be a priority.
Matt M

and i’ve been screaming this since we’ve signed CC.

if we take his contract at what is has a highly likelihood of being: 3/69 rather than 7/161…..well then…why…maybe the yankees DO have enough capital to go after Tex.
- thisisthedavid
  
  And why not throw an opt out in their. Its not like he is a pitcher and as likely to get hurt. So we end up paying tex 5 years 100 millon or 5 years 110 million??
Manimal

There has to be a time where Arod and Texiera can’t occupy the full time DH role, which is why he wont be a good fit for the yankees. but who gives a fuck.
TurnTwo

what was this i heard in passing on WFAN this morning about the Yankees being willing to offer Manny 3 years/$75 million with a 4th year option?

did anyone else hear this or know where the story came from?
- Manimal
  
  http://mlb.mlb.com/news/articl.....8;c_id=nyy
  - TurnTwo
    
    awesome.
Teaman

Interesting article from Ken Rosenthal, expressing his views about the appropriate strategy at this juncture of the off-season for the Yankees’ (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/s.....rail-BoSox ).

Another reason that spending the dollars on Teixeira makes more sense to NY than the combo of Cameron/Pettitte, I believe, is that NY it won’t cost the Yankees any draft picks to sign Teixeira inasmuch as they have already signed Sabathia and Burnett. And what is so bad about the 5th starter being one or a combination of Hughes/Acevedo/Kennedy/Geise rather than Pettitte?

Also, if NY were willing to pay the vast majority of the monies still owed to Matsui-san and Igawa-san, would Seattle and/or SF have any interest? Suppose the Yankees were willing to eat $8m of the $13m owed to Matsui and $8m of the $12m owed to Igawa, would they be able to pare some payroll in that manner or are these two players untradeable, even if very little is asked in return?

If Matsui is untradeable even if most of his salary were still paid by NY, how is it even conceivable that the Yankees would go after Manny Ramirez? An OF of Ramirez, Damon and Nady would be the worst fielding OF in baseball. And if they acquired Cameron to improve their OF defense, where does Nady play with Ramirez in right and Matsui as the DH? Is Nady the guy who gets traded?
ryan

Im praying the yanks pass on manny…It’ll ruin watching yankee games for me. Aside from the fact he’s terrorized the yanks for yrs as well as his own teamates. Yanks need to calm down and put the wallet away another corner outfielder/DH is the last thing they need in 09.
- Bo
  
  When he hits a big homer in the first week you won’t cheer?
- http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside
  
  another corner outfielder/DH is the last thing they need in 09.
  
  While you may be right,
  A) We’ll definitely need corner outfielders/DH’s in 2010, 2011, and 2012, and Manny’s better than all other options at those positions for those years, including Matt Holliday, and
  B) Manny is not just “another” corner outfielder/DH. He’s the best corner outfielder/DH in baseball today, hands down, by far.
ryan

no one is gonna take matsui with his bad knees especially if the team is not in the AL and in need of a DH.
- TurnTwo
  
  so what? then he sits on the bench, and fills in when he’s needed.
  
  healthy Manny > bum-knee Matsui at DH.
  - http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside
    
    no one is gonna take matsui with his bad knees especially if the team is not in the AL and in need of a DH.
    
    The Rays, Indians, Twins, Mariners, and Rangers are all teams in the AL in need of a DH.
    - Ari
      
      Adding on to a comment made before about the Yanks trading Matsui and eating most of the money owed to him to make the trade palatable, pretty much all of the teams listed above have some serious depth on the farm, and if the team could get a guy a couple years out but with upside the deal makes sense to me (assuming the team signs Tex and splits DH/LF between Damon and Swisher. Let Gardner play center. He plays +D, and if can be just scrappy enough to maintain a respectable OBP he’ll swipe like 8 bags a game.
Rob in CT

Signing Tex makes so much sense… I will be really pissed if they pass on him. Not if they get outbid by a crazy deal from some other team… but if they choose to pass like they did with Beltran. That would suck.
- Bo
  
  They already made that decision. Considering the team needs in their prime hitters who also play GG defense I dont get it either.
Shawn

Has anyone brought up the fact of the luxury tax. The Yankees have been paying this for years and from a business standpoint you have to add this to the previous years’ payroll figures. Then you subtract what they are allowed to deduct from the construction of the new park. I don’t have thoses numbers at my fingertips (I probably do, but I’m too lazy). With that figured in, you are talking about a whole different picture of the money they have to “play”with.
Matthew

What’s going to happen after Jeter’s contract is up? I wonder how much/long he’ll ask for and want?
LeftyLarry

Jeter better be thinking he should play in the 10-12 million range going forward and as he ages.
Salaries will be coming down dramatically when the Stuff totally hits the fan from this economic fallout in mid 2009 and as a SS, he’ll lose range quickly and as an outfielder/DH he’s just a guy.
I love him but that’s reality.
We should have let ARod go too.
- Bo
  
  yea they should have let a-rod go off an mvp season and replace him with pedro feliz in the cleanup slot.
CJM

The fact that the yanks are asking NYC for money to complete yankee stadium means they dont need anymore 100 million dollar players. The rotation fell apart and they did what they needed to do, even if Im not crazy about Sabathia or Burnett they are both proven in their own right. However, if the yanks are out of money for the stadium maybe some of the Steinbrenners personal money should be spent on the building, or use all the money they make from YES to pay for it instead of players…if the taxpayers are building the stadium should I espect my ticket to cost less next year? Of course not, that would make too much sense
- Bo
  
  If the gov’t will give them the $ why wouldn’t they take it?
  
  They’re bailing out everyone else they may as well help build a stadium that will bring in millions to the city.
  - http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside
    
    Exactly. The Yankees aren’t out of money for the stadium, they’re simply trying to get other people to spend as much money as they can so they can keep more of their own money for themselves.
ryan

I’d rather have a young matt holliday next year than a troublesome Ramirez. Holliday to me is a way better fit for the bronx and a smarter investment.:
2010
gardner CF
jeter SS
Cano 2B
Arod 3B
Holliday LF
Posada C
Nady RF
swisher 1B
resign either matsui or Damon for one year as DH
- TurnTwo
  
  you dont need to choose between the two.
  - http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside
    
    Very true.
    
    2010:
    C- ???
    1B- Swisher
    2B- Cano
    SS- Jeter
    3B- ARod
    LF- Manny
    CF- Gardner/Jackson
    RF- Holliday
    DH- Posada
A.D.

Sign Tex, trade Nady to the Braves for Schafer …Done!

Next year you’ll have to spend 12M+ to get a corner outfielder. If Schafer is ready put him in LF with Jackson in CF Swisher in RF.

Else if hes not you can play BG or Melk in an OF spot, or look to trade for a short term fill

From the Braves standpoint, you have Heyward & Gorkys coming through the system. Some say they fell out of favor with Schafer after the HGH suspension. The Braves need a productive corner outfielder to bat in the middle of the lineup with Chipper.
- Chip
  
  I guess I could see the Braves taking a one-year, cheap rental but is Nady really worth that much?
  - TurnTwo
    
    no, Nady isnt. Keith Law predicted yesterday on Kellerman’s show Nady would bring in a pretty nice B-level prospect by himself.
    
    but, if you were include some pitching with Kennedy, you could package together something for a top level prospect, certainly.
- Reggie C.
  
  You don’t trade your future CF for somebody who’s put in one, good full season’s worth of work. Not happening. We’re not going to fleece the Braves simply b/c that doesn’t happen.
  - A.D.
    
    As TurnTwo said the deal could be expanded, which I should have included in my inital post.
    
    The deal essentially counts on that the Schafer had some fall after the HGH suspension
Bo

Has Cashman ever been creative? You can sign Tex, put Swish in right, and trade Nady to one of ten teams that need a power bat. They obv think that they’ll need 1b for a-rod, jeter or posada.
Yankees_Universe

I think Matt Holliday is next year’s CC. You can easily get him for the money coming offf the books from Damon and Matsui. This is all more the reason Yankees should get Tex now. It makes you so much younger and better within next two years.
John NY

Cashman is preaching flexibility.

Supporting our pitchers with defense is needed. Going for Manny makes zero sense and makes us unflexible like we were last year. Cameron is a 1 year deal and makes us defensively stronger. Also, our options next year in the OF are greater with less commitment. If you’re going to sign anybody for offense, sign Tex.

Signing Pettitte gives us great flexibility in our rotation as well. You get 1 year of a veteran presence at the #5 slot and have a ton of options if someone gets hurt. Take your pick (Hughes, IPK, Aceves). On top of that, Joba is going to get 150? innings. The Yanks will slide in any of those three and be set.

I don’t think money is the big deal here. Because, you know we can blow anyone out of the water….if we choose to. But not by breaking our position flexibility.
- TurnTwo
  
  you forget that at any moment, Hank and Hal can go “Steinbrenner” on Cashman and just overrule him, though.
ryan

1B is probably a spot the yanks should keep open for a bunch of reasons:
1)Posada is an aging catcher with a bad shoulder
2)Jeter aging SS with limited range
3)ARod signed to a rediculously long contract migh end up there toward the end
4)Jesus montero is hopefully the replacement for posada but when u have a guy who can hit like he may someday and catching doesn’t work out , 1B is an optoin best kept open.
- John NY
  
  Good point.
  
  The flexibility can allow Jeter to take up a corner OF spot. Maybe Posada at 1b in the next 1-2 years. And A-Rod takes over after Posada.
  
  Montero probably needs to Catch or, A-Rod needs to keep in shape and stay away from Madonna to play 3B longer if Montero gets shifted to 1B.
- tomaconda
  
  “1B is probably a spot the yanks should keep open for a bunch of reasons:
  1)Posada is an aging catcher with a bad shoulder
  2)Jeter aging SS with limited range
  3)ARod signed to a rediculously long contract migh end up there toward the end
  4)Jesus montero is hopefully the replacement for posada but when u have a guy who can hit like he may someday and catching doesn’t work out , 1B is an optoin best kept open.”
  
  1) Thats what the DH is for.
  2) Better suited for left field.
  3) Thats what the DH is for.
  4)So you would advocate not signing Teixeira because of a 19 yr old prospect (one hell of one I agree) who may or may not be able to handle catching?
  
  Teixeira is as sure of a thing as money can buy (lots of it at that) offensively and defensively. Make way more sence than Manny, and Dunn because you allready have a logjam at of/dh with Damon, Matsui, Gardner, Nady, and Melky. In an ideal situation you sign Teix, DH Damon 50% of the time and left field 50%. Gardner full time CF, Nady in Right, Swisher as your other LF and fourth OF and back up 1b. Matsui gets the other 300 PA at DH. Next season you still have 2 outfielder signed (Gardner, Swisher) so you have a spot for Jackson AND could take a flyer on a lower priced FA like Ankiel to play right.
- Chip
  
  What you guys aren’t considering is that Posada and Jeter would be HORRIBLE first basemen. They just don’t profile as even league average at first. Also, A-Rod will stick at third the rest of his career unless he ends up looking like Bonds when he’s 38. As for Montero, I don’t think we should hold a position open at the major league level for a prospect that hasn’t even made the High A team.
  - tomaconda
    
    Amen Chip, Amen.
Dassit

Not that this matter that much for the total figure but don’t you have to include a signing bonus too if that is payed over numerous years like with A-Rod’s contract? if so A-Rods gets 33 million next year. And doesn’t Molina make 2 mill? He made 1.75 last year, got a 0.25 mil signing bonus while signing a 2 year/4mill contract. Where is that other million?
tomaconda

ROCCO BALDELLI MIDIAGNOSED

By Tim Dierkes [December 16, 2008 at 11:36pm CST]
From Ken Bell of ABC6 out of Rhode Island:

Great news for Rocco Baldelli. A visit to the Cleveland clinic last week revealed that doctors had misdiagnosed his illness. Baldelli missed much of last season, and when he did play, he was limited because of extreme fatigue. Doctors thought it was mitochondrial disorder, which can be fatal. The Baldelli family told me tonight that the Cleveland clinic diagnosed his condition as channelopathy, a non-progressive, highly treatable disease.

Bell adds that the Red Sox have not contacted Baldelli, who is a free agent. The story is also being reported by WPRI 12 out of Rhode Island.
- A.D.
  
  If nothing else, thats great to hear for Baldelli
  - tomaconda
    
    Absolutely. He is a first class human being first and baseball player second so great news it is.
tomaconda

If this is true maybe this is why the Yankees have slowed down the Cameron aquisition to a crawl. Taking a flyer for 4/24 on Baldelli could be a huge gamble with a high payout.
Sweet Lou

The Yanks will pass on a young , great hitter such as Tex, just like they passed on Beltran in ’05 and signed Randy Johnson instead. If they feel that they can’t pay Tex since signing him would match the payroll for ’08, then they have once again cut off their nose to spite their face. Signing Randy Johnson in ’05 enabled the Yanks to make the playoffs and has haunted them since. They shouldn’t have signed A.J. Burnett then.
ryan

what’s the point of the farm then …if the entire infield is gonna be locked up in long term contracts…there are no SS prostpects worth mentioning and same can be said for the corner outfield postions. With the depth for those positions being so weak and 1B CF and C the only strengths (and I say strengths compared to the rest of the farm) Y not try to solve things that can be solved from within and use FA’s to take care of the weak components of the farm. I mean Cash talked all this BS a bout reducing payroll and infusing youth, looks like it’s just more long term big money contracts and risks. Holliday in LF next year is key.
ryan

All being said ofcourse i’ll take tex over many hands down…If the yanks sign manny it’s gonna be tough for me to watch games. I mean if the yanks are this endless money pit that everyone thinks they r then grabb tex instead of many and grab holliday next yr for left…. one thing to think about is the left handed hitters that seem to be vanishing from this team if we go out and get all the players people are talking about the lineup will have cano as the only left handed hitter under contract. Imagine the yanks with yankee stadium being designed as it is with no left handed hitters. Tex is a switch hitter so that’s not an issue but manny is a big mistake right now
Klemy

I don’t like the idea of passing on a player like Teix due to future falloff of star players. Posada can DH and if he doesn’t like it, tough because his shoulder is on it’s way out. Jeter can move to OF if needed. We can’t struggle at 1B every year thinking that an aging star would serve us best there. I’d rather the cheap OF and Teix at 1B…especially with so much coming off the books next year.
ryan

at this point im all for anything but signing manny..as long as I don’t have to look at his mop all year.
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Yankees Future Payroll

Yankees Future Payroll w/ Tex

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