As Andy Pettitte ran through the Orioles’ line up on Monday with the threat of a perfect game hanging over Camden Yards, he put the perfect exclamation point on his post-All Star Break run. Since taking a few days off for the break, Pettitte has been as close to unbeatable as he ever has been.
He’s 4-1 since the break, and the Yanks are 7-2 in games Pettitte starts. His impressive down the line though are even more impressive. In 59.2 innings spanning 9 starts, Pettitte has an ERA of 2.56. He has allowed 45 hits and has walked just 15 while striking out 62, better than one batter an inning. Opponents are hitting .210/.260/.294 off of Andy, and he has allowed just three home runs after allowing 15 bombs during the first half of the season.
For many Yankee fans, what Pettitte has done this year reminds them of what Mike Mussina did last year. Pettitte is an old veteran who can’t blow hitters away, and he has had to change his style of pitching. By changing speeds and weaning himself off of his fastball, Pettitte has been a finesse pitcher who could keep going for years. Or so the narrative goes.
There is, of course, only one little problem with this story: It’s not true. Let’s start with Mike Mussina. While we have limited pitch f/x data for Mussina from 2007, we see that he threw around 50 percent fastballs and 50 percent breaking pitches. His fastball had an average velocity of around 88.5, and it was rated by Fangraphs as -15 runs above average. In 2008, Mussina changed his approach. He threw fastballs around 33 percent of the time and threw change-ups and breaking pitches that ranged from around 73 miles per hour to 80. He became a completely different pitcher.
Andy Pettitte hasn’t achieved the same metamorphosis. In 2008, Pettitte threw fastballs 45.6 percent of the time; in 2009, Pettitte has thrown fastballs 44 percent of the time. The velocity on those pitches clocks in at around 89 mph both years, and in fact, during Monday’s gem, Pettitte never reached higher than 88.2 mph on the gun.
Velocity, though, isn’t everything, and the secret to Pettitte’s success this year isn’t his speed or pitching approach. It is his ability to throw his slider and get more cutting action on his cutter. As 2008 drew to a close, Pettitte was a mess. He admitted that his arm hurt and that he could not pitch effectively. He went out there every five days because the other options were, frankly, awful. Sidney Ponson, as we like to forget, started 15 games for the 2008 Yankees.
This year, Pettitte has been the model of health. In fact, his arm feels so good that he sounds as though he won’t retire at the end of this season. With a healthy arm in tow, he is now throwing sliders 18.2 percent of the time, up from 5.3 percent in 2008. By mixing and matching his slider and fastball with his cutter ? ranked 11.2 runs above average by Fangraphs ? Pettitte has rediscovered his arsenal. He didn’t need to reinvent himself; he just had to feel and be healthy.
Going forward, this reality raises a few uncomfortable questions. Will Pettitte be able to maintain this success as the velocity on his pitches drops? What happens if and when his shoulder or elbow flare up again and that slider and cutter become unavailable? Pettitte turned 37 nearly three months ago, and he’s not getting any younger. As long as he’s healthy, he could be an effective pitcher for a few more years, and as Pettitte and the Yanks head for another winter contract, I just hope his arm holds up.
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