Archive for Andy Pettitte
Buster Olney thinks Andy Pettitte is a good fit for the 2010 Yankees
Posted by: | CommentsOn the heels of his gritty and gutty and playing the game the right wayeyey performance in Game Six of the World Series, Buster Olney thinks it’s a lock that the Yankees will offer Andy Pettitte arbitration this offseason. Pettitte’s base salary was just $5.5M in 2009, but he took home over $10M thanks to incentives, so that’s what a potential arbitration case will be based on.
Pettitte projects as a Type-B free agent, but he may creep up into Type-A status when the official rankings come out because he’s right at the cutoff. I thought the Yanks should offer Andy arbitration last year (they didn’t), and I definitely think they should do so again this year.
Memories of Pettitte’s Game 6s past
Posted by: | CommentsAs we tick off the hours, minutes and seconds until Andy Pettitte’s first pitch to Jimmy Rollins tonight shortly after 7:57 p.m., we have ample time to reflect upon tonight’s starter. On Sept. 28, Andy Petitte got the win when the Yankees clinched the AL East with a victory over the Red Sox. On Oct. 11, Pettitte earned himself a W when the Yankees eliminated the Twins in the ALDS and secured themselves an ALCS berth. On Oct. 25, Pettitte won again as the Yanks downed the Angels to move on to the World Series.
So tonight, Pettitte will go for what is, in horse-racing, termed a superfecta. He’ll try for the chance to win all four clinching game for the Yankees this year. That would be some feat for a pitcher who perennially can’t decide whether to keep pitching or just retire.
For Pettitte, tonight will mark his 40th playoff start. If all goes according to plan, if he can last 6.2 innings or more, he will throw his 250th playoff inning tonight as well. Those are gaudy numbers, Pettitte is no stranger to Game 6. Tonight will mark his fifth Game 6 start. In three of those starts, the Yankee needed a clincher but got it from Pettitte just once. In the fourth, the Yanks were averting a World Series loss, and although Pettitte was masterful, Josh Beckett was better. So let’s review.
November 3, 2001: World Series Game 6
After two dramatic come-from-behind wins in New York City, the Yankees returned to Phoenix to face the Diamondbacks with the World Series hanging in the balance. The Bombers had a 3-2 lead with Andy Pettitte lined up to pitch in his first career Game 6. Just two innings and 14 batters later though, Pettitte’s night would be over.
The Diamondbacks were merciless that Saturday night in Arizona. They scored one in the first and three in the second. Pettitte put the first two runners on in the third, and Jay Witasick, in one of the World Series’ most disastrous relief performances, came in. Witasick allowed two inherited runners to score and six more that inning. The Yanks were down 12-0 before anyone realized what just happened.
On the night, Pettitte threw just two innings and gave up six runs on seven hits and two walks. He struck out just one. Later on, word emerged that Pettitte may have been tipping his pitches. Even if he was not, that’s one game YES watchers will never see on Yankee Classics.
October 15, 2003: ALCS Game 6
Considering the outcome of Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS, Game 6 is often overlooked. In it, Joe Torre gave Pettitte the ball; Andy pitched well enough to win; and Torre and the bullpen gave this one away as the Red Sox won 9-6.
Pettitte’s final line in this outing wasn’t terrible, but it wasn’t great. He struck out five in five innings and allowed four earned runs on eight hits and two walks. The damage, though, was limited to one inning. In the third, a home run, two walks and two singles gave the Red Sox a 4-1 lead, but that would be all for the scoring against Pettitte. He left this one with the Yanks up 6-4, but Torre gave the ball to Jose Contreras, Jeff Nelson, Felix Heredia and Gabe White. Nine outs away from the World Series, Mariano Rivera never pitched, and the rest is Aaron Boone-inspired history.
October 25, 2003: World Series Game 6
Ten days after a mediocre ALCS Game 6, Pettitte got the ball with the Yanks’ backs against the wall. Heavy favorites to win the World Series, they split two games in New York against the Marlins before losing two of three in Miami. The Yankees returned, then, to Yankee Stadium needing a home sweep to win, and Pettitte, masterful in throwing eight shutout innings in Game 2, would get the ball.
Pettitte was great that night. He threw seven innings and allowed two runs, one earned, on six hits and three walks. He struck out seven and threw 71 of 106 pitches for strikes. He should have been hailed as a hero, but Josh Beckett was just better. Beckett threw a five-hit shutout and struck out nine as the Marlins stunned everyone to win the World Series.
Little did we realize at the time, but that Saturday night affair would be Pettitte’s last start in pinstripes until 2007. The Yankees assumed he would just resign with them, but the Houston Astros offered more. For three years, the Yankees had little in the way of shut-down starting pitching, and Pettitte would be missed. I’ll take another Game 6 similar to that one tonight.
October 25, 2009: ALCS Game 6
This one — the ALCS clincher — is still fresh in our minds, and every Yankee fan would take this outing and outcome from Pettitte. Facing a feisty Angels’ club and with the Yanks just 27 outs away from the World Series, Pettitte came through in a big way. In 6.1 innings, he allowed just a run on seven hits and one walk. He struck out six and threw 64 of 99 pitches for strikes. He could locate his curveball, spot his fastball and keep the Angels off balance. With Mariano Rivera in for the final six outs, the Yanks found themselves back in the Fall Classic.
And so we arrive at tonight’s game to see if a tried-and-true formula can deliver a win. Mariano Rivera has saved more wins for Andy Pettitte than any other duo in baseball history. We want one more. As we sit 27 outs away and a few hours from first pitch, Andy Pettitte, number 46, the man with the stare, will be on the mound, ready to deliver.
How did Pettitte fare after high stress starts in 2009?
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Later on tonight, Andy Pettitte will make his final start of 2009, for better or worse. As you know, he’ll be working on three days’ rest for the first time since 2006, and many fans are concerned about how the 37-year-old will rebound on short rest. While his stats on three days’ rest are pretty good (3-1, 2.80 ERA in five career short rest starts in the playoffs), the data is so old and not indicative of anything that it might as well be recorded in hieroglyphics.
Instead of relying on those numbers, let’s take a look at how Pettitte fared on normal four days’ rest following what I’ll call “high stress outings” in 2009. By “high stress outings,” I mean starts in which Andy threw a lot of pitches while allowing lots of baserunners in not many innings. Think 5.1 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 3 BB kind of outings. Then, by looking at how he performed four days later, it’ll give us an approximation of what Pettitte will do tonight. It’s obviously not a perfect comparison, but it’s better than pretty much anything else we have right now.
Game Three over the weekend wasn’t kind to Andy, but he battled through six innings while putting eight men on base and letting four runners cross the plate. He threw 104 pitches, so it would definitely be considered a “high stress outing.” Let’s see how Pettitte rebounded from similar starts this year.
High Stress Outing: April 26th @ Boston: 6 IP, 6 H, 4 BB, 4 R, 116 pitches, -0.14 WPA
Next Start: May 1st vs Anaheim: 5.2 IP, 9 H, 4 BB, 5 R, 111 pitches, +0.02 WPA
HSO: May 18th vs Twins: 6.2 IP, 12 H, 1 BB, 4 R, 105 pitches, -0.03 WPA
NS: May 23rd vs Phillies: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 R, 114 pitches, -0.11 WPA
HSO: June 3rd vs Texas: 5 IP, 7 H, 6 BB, 4 R, 104 pitches, -0.17 WPA
NS: June 8th vs Tampa: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 R, 104 pitches, +0.06 WPA
HSO: June 25th @ Atlanta: 3.2 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 6 R, 95 pitches, -0.23 WPA
NS: July 1st vs Seattle: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 R, 98 pitches, +0.17 WPA
HSO: July 6th vs Toronto: 6 IP, 5 H, 5 BB, 6 R, 109 pitches, -0.20 WPA
NS: July 11th @ Anaheim: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 6 R, 83 pitches, -0.32 WPA
HSO: August 21st @ Boston: 5 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 7 R, 105 pitches, +0.05 WPA
NS: August 26th vs Texas: 7 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 2 R, 103 pitches, +0.23 WPA
I was going to break it down start-by-start, but after recapping the first one, I gave up because all I would be doing is giving too much credit to the already small sample size. It wasn’t worth the time.
So anyway, that’s six instances this season when Andy really had to work hard to get outs, then had to come back and pitch four days later. In those six follow-up starts, Pettitte averaged 6.1 IP, 6.2 H, 2.5 BB, 3.7 R, 102.2 pitches, +0.05 WPA, which is not great, but it’s certainly serviceable. The good news that with exception of that July 1st start against the Mariners, all of the follow-up starts came against good offensive clubs, so the data isn’t too skewed.
Pettitte’s average start this year was 6.1 IP, 6.0 H, 2.4 BB, 3.2 R, 103 pitches, +0.05 WPA, which is ridiculously close to his average in those follow-up starts. The biggest difference is that he allowed half a run more following a real tough outing, which is probably just a BABIP thing since the number of baserunners and innings pitched are nearly identical. I have to say, I’m somewhat surprised by the results.
Of course, these starts come on regular four days’ rest in the middle of the season, not three day’s rest after Pettitte already has 219.2 IP on his left arm. We can arbitrarily dock him an inning and tack on another run, meaning we should expect 5+ innings and about 5 runs tonight, but that’s nothing more than guesswork.
What I wanted to see with this post is how Pettitte rebounded after a taxing start, and as you can see above, he generally didn’t suffer any sort of hangover. It’s far from a perfect analysis, but it’s much better than just assuming he’ll do bad for no other reason than because you have a bad feeling about it.
Photo Credit: Brian Kersey, UPI
Unsurprisingly, it’s Pettitte for Game Six
Posted by: | CommentsVia Mark Carig, the Yankees will hand the ball to Andy Pettitte on three days’ rest in Game Six tomorrow night. This should surprise no one; the writing’s been on the wall for weeks. Carig notes that Pettitte feels physically fine, which is always a plus. Pettitte has not made a start on three days’ rest since Sept. 30, 2006 when he was on the Astros. A full list of Andy’s starts on three days is available here.
Andy was on the mound the last time the Yankees clinched a World Championship. Here’s to hoping he repeats the trick tomorrow night.
Pettitte: ‘I wasn’t real happy with the contract’
Posted by: | CommentsThis probably comes as little surprise to Yankee fans, but Andy Pettitte, in an interview with the L.A. Times today expressed his displeasure with the way his off-season negotiations with the Yankees ended up last winter. The veteran lefty made it clear that he wanted to return to the Yanks, but Brian Cashman and the New York brass, concerned about Pettitte’s shoulder strength, offered him a low base salary with high incentives. Although Pettitte stands to earn nearly $10 million total this year, he felt slighted by the Yanks over the winter. He is, however, over it. “I think everybody knows I wasn’t real happy with the contract,” Pettitte said. “But I wanted to take it and come back here and have a chance to do this. It’s nice to have things work out the way you think they’re going to work out. This is what I was kind of hoping for.”
The Yankees and Pettitte will probably engage in a similar dance this off-season but with a few different assumptions. Pettitte has certainly earned himself a higher base salary for 2010, and I’m sure the Yankees will keep the door open for Number 46 if he wants to return. I wonder, though, if Pettitte might retire if the Yankees win the World Series. Five rings fills up a hand.
Open Thread: Andy Pettitte in potential clinchers
Posted by: | CommentsAndy Pettitte is the old man in the rotation, the been there, done that, respect him just because of he is who he is veteran. He wore pinstripes in both good times and bad, and he’s got more than a full season’s worth of postseason experience in that left arm (37 starts, 231 IP career in the playoffs). His reputation as a big game pitcher is a tad exaggerated, but he’s certainly done what the Yankees needed in the past.
In his career, Pettitte’s started eight games when the Yankees had a chance to clinch a series, like they will tomorrow night. Let’s quickly recap those starts:
1996 ALCS Game Five: 8 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
Pettitte was fantastic, and it certainly didn’t hurt that the offense put up a six spot in the third inning. Yanks won the game 6-4, and took the series against Baltimore 4-1.
1997 ALDS Game Five: 6.2 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
Meh outing, Manny Ramirez’s two-run double followed by a Matt Williams RBI single in the third did him him. Yanks lose the game and the series 4-3 and 3-2, respectively.
1998 World Series Game Four: 7.1 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
Pettitte was spectacular against the overmatched Padres, but he wasn’t able to ease up until the team scored a pair of insurance run in the 8th inning. Yanks won the game 3-0, and swept the series.
2000 ALDS Game Five: 3.2 IP, 10 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
Pettitte kinda crapped the bed in the deciding game five, but luckily for him, Oakland starter Gil Heredia was even worse (six runs, one out). The bullpen held it down for 5+ innings. Yanks won 7-5, and finished Oakland off in the deciding Game Five.
2000 World Series Game Five: 7 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
Pettitte hurt himself with an error in the third, but otherwise held it down until the Yanks took the lead in the ninth. Good guys won 4-2, and took the series in five.
2001 World Series Game Six: 2 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
This was the real clunker. After two magical come from behind wins in the Bronx, Pettitte blew up in the potential clincher. He later admitted to tipping his pitches, hence all the damage. Yanks took one on the chin, losing 15-2, and we all know what happened in Game Seven.
2003 World Series Game Six: 7 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K
Andy was good, but Josh Beckett was better.
2009 ALDS Game Three: 6.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
This one was just two weeks ago, so I’m sure you remember it. Pettitte could have gone longer, but was lifted after just 81 pitches. Yanks held on for a 4-1 win, and a trip to the ALCS.
Overall, the Yanks are 5-3 when Pettitte takes the mound in a game where the Yanks could clinch the series. What does this mean for tomorrow? Absolutely nothing. These are just isolated incidents, some over ten years old. All Pettitte has to do tomorrow is what he’s been doing all year: keep the Yanks in the game, and log as many innings as possible.
Update: I missed some games. See this comment for more info.
Anyway, use this as your open thread for the night. There’s literally no local major sports team in action tonight, just the Nets in a meaningless preseason game. There’s also some college football game on, but I don’t remember the teams. You could always come hang out with me at MLBTR. Talk about whatever you want, just make sure you follow the guidelines and be nice.
Playoff rotation comes into view
Posted by: | CommentsAs the Yanks prepare for a three-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays to close out the season, the playoffs are looming large in the minds of the Bombers and their fans. With the pitching match-ups set for this weekend, we know a firm sense of the Yanks’ plans and can debate the merits of the Andy-and-A.J. decision.
Earlier this week, the Yankees announced that CC Sabathia would start on Friday night in search of his 20th win. Most of the Yanks’ A team will back him up. On Saturday, Andy Pettitte will take the ball in a final regular-season tune-up, and on Sunday, A.J. Burnett and the ALDS Game 1 lineup will earn themselves at least a few innings of time on the field. And so, as I’ve done once a week or so for the last few weeks, we extrapolate.
It’s safe to assume that the Yankees are going to take the longer ALDS series to avoid the Joba/Chad Gaudin decision that looms not as large as we might think (but more on that when and if the time comes). The pitching rotation, then, looks a little something like this:
| Date | Game | Pitcher |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 2 | vs. TB | Sabathia |
| Oct. 3 | vs. TB | Pettitte |
| Oct. 4 | vs. TB | Burnett |
| Oct. 5 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 6 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 7 | ALDS 1 | Sabathia |
| Oct. 8 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 9 | LDS 2 | Pettitte |
| Oct. 10 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 11 | ALDS 3 | Burnett |
| Oct. 12 | ALDS 4* | Sabathia |
| Oct. 13 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 14 | ALDS 5* | Pettitte |
We know that Chip Caray and Ron Darling will be manning the broadcast booth for the Yankees vs. Tigers/Twins. Now we have a pretty good idea who will be pitching.
On Wednesday, Joe tackled the Andy-and-A.J. debate and came to the conclusion I would have drawn. “I like A.J. as much as the next guy, he wrote, “but with the season on the line, I’d rather have Pettitte on the mound.”
Personally, we’d all rather have CC Sabathia on the mound in the a do-or-die Game 5, but Game 4 could be just as important. Either the Yanks will try to close the door on the Tigers or Twins or the Bombers will have to win Game 4 to force Game 5. CC fights the bill for that match-up.
There is an interesting twist to the post-season pitching previews as well that I didn’t include in the chart. Right now, the Tigers hold a two-game lead over the Twins. In an ideal world, these two teams will tie so that they have to play a game on Tuesday. In an also-ideal world, the Twins will be a game behind the Tigers come Sunday. That day, you see, is Justin Verlander’s next start. If the Tigers face a must-win situation, they will start Verlander on Sunday, and he won’t be available to pitch on regular rest until Game 2. Although that would line him up to pitch Game 5, I’d take my chances with the rest of the Tigers’ rotation.
If the Tigers win a pair this weekend or if the Twins drop two to the Royals, the point will be moot. Verlander can rest until Game 1, and we’d have ourselves a good old fashioned pitcher’s battle to start the playoffs. I’m ready. Are you?
Yanks face a few postseason decisions
Posted by: | CommentsThere aren’t too many decisions left for the 2009 Yankees. Beyond some minor decisions on how to construct the postseason roster, there are only a few questions to ask. While some might be wondering if Molina will catch Burnett, I’ve got a bigger question in mind. Will the Yanks start Burnett in Game 2 or Game 3? This is no small matter. The Game 2 starter would also start a potential Game 5. Who do you trust most in that spot?
In the aggregate, Burnett and Pettitte look like similar pitchers. Their ERAs are right in line, as are their WHIP, H/9, and HR/9 numbers. Burnett strikes out more batters but also walks more, leaving the pitchers about even in K/BB. Both have had dominant stretches, A.J.’s from June through mid-July, and Andy’s in August. Using this base information it might seem like the decision could go either way. But as we’ve learned, things aren’t always as they seem in the aggregate.
Our favorite optimist notes one major difference between A.J. and Andy:
Take a look at these splits: Pettitte’s home ERA is exactly an entire run higher than his road ERA, an OPS against that’s over 100 points lower on the road and fourteen home runs surrendered at home against only five on the road.
Burnett’s splits are similar to Pettitte’s in terms of home-road difference, just reversed.
That would make it seem obvious, right? Start A.J. at home in Game 2 and then Pettitte on the road in Game 3. It’s called playing the percentages. It’s what smart managers do to win ballgames. The schedule would also point to this conclusion. If the Yankees choose the A series, as most of us expect, they’d be able to start Sabathia on normal rest in Game 1, then Burnett on normal rest in Game 2, with Pettitte starting on seven days’ rest on the 11th. If they went with Pettitte in Game 2 he’d be on five days’ rest, and Burnett would be on six days’ rest for Game 3.
Yet that doesn’t take into consideration other factors. For instance, commenter JGS on Rebecca’s post notes that Pettitte has pitched better at home since the All-Star Break:
Andy at home since the Break:
2-1, 2.79 ERA, 1.216 WHIPAndy on the road since the break:
4-1, 3.47 ERA, 1.068 WHIP
Maybe the home/road split is a bit overblown. Do the Yankees go with the season-long numbers, or the post-break numbers, when they’ve played like a completely different team?
There’s one last monkey wrench to consider: what if the Yankees choose series B? It seems like a long shot, but it’s possible. A friend mentioned that on Baseball Tonight, Peter Gammons said he heard the Yanks were going with the B series. This would make particular sense if playing the Tigers, because it would force Jim Leyland to either use his fourth starter in a potential Game 4, or use Justin Verlander on short rest. Neither is an ideal scenario.
Choosing the B series would make the Burnett-Pettitte decision moot. Joba Chamberlain would then pitch a potential Game 4, against either Nate Robertson, Jarrod Wasburn, or Justin Verlander, and then CC would come back for a potential Game 5. The problem there is that you can’t reverse the decision mid-round. If the Yanks find themselves in an elimination Game 4, they might not want Joba out there. That would necessitate trotting out Sabathia on short rest.
If the Yanks sweep, all this will be moot. Game 3 in both series is on October 11, and the Yanks would be able to realign their rotation for the ALCS. The longer it goes, the more important the Yanks’ decisions — both the choice of series and the starter alignment — become. If the Yanks win in four with Sabathia on the mound they’d probably have to slide him back to ALCS Game 2. If the Yanks win in 5, I doubt they’ll mind holding back CC until Game 3.
I hope the Yankees choose the short series. There’s a risk in starting Joba, but that’s somewhat mitigated by CC’s potential Game 5 start. The only way that scenario plays out poorly is if the Yankees face elimination in Game 4. They’d almost have to use CC on short rest, and then their Game 2 starter in Game 5. In that regard, I’d rather see Pettitte in Game 2. I like A.J. as much as the next guy, but with the season on the line, I’d rather have Pettitte on the mound.
