Archive for Andy Pettitte

On the heels of his gritty and gutty and playing the game the right wayeyey performance in Game Six of the World Series, Buster Olney thinks it’s a lock that the Yankees will offer Andy Pettitte arbitration this offseason. Pettitte’s base salary was just $5.5M in 2009, but he took home over $10M thanks to incentives, so that’s what a potential arbitration case will be based on.

Pettitte projects as a Type-B free agent, but he may creep up into Type-A status when the official rankings come out because he’s right at the cutoff.  I thought the Yanks should offer Andy arbitration last year (they didn’t), and I definitely think they should do so again this year.

Categories : Asides
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As we tick off the hours, minutes and seconds until Andy Pettitte’s first pitch to Jimmy Rollins tonight shortly after 7:57 p.m., we have ample time to reflect upon tonight’s starter. On Sept. 28, Andy Petitte got the win when the Yankees clinched the AL East with a victory over the Red Sox. On Oct. 11, Pettitte earned himself a W when the Yankees eliminated the Twins in the ALDS and secured themselves an ALCS berth. On Oct. 25, Pettitte won again as the Yanks downed the Angels to move on to the World Series.

So tonight, Pettitte will go for what is, in horse-racing, termed a superfecta. He’ll try for the chance to win all four clinching game for the Yankees this year. That would be some feat for a pitcher who perennially can’t decide whether to keep pitching or just retire.

For Pettitte, tonight will mark his 40th playoff start. If all goes according to plan, if he can last 6.2 innings or more, he will throw his 250th playoff inning tonight as well. Those are gaudy numbers, Pettitte is no stranger to Game 6. Tonight will mark his fifth Game 6 start. In three of those starts, the Yankee needed a clincher but got it from Pettitte just once. In the fourth, the Yanks were averting a World Series loss, and although Pettitte was masterful, Josh Beckett was better. So let’s review.

November 3, 2001: World Series Game 6
After two dramatic come-from-behind wins in New York City, the Yankees returned to Phoenix to face the Diamondbacks with the World Series hanging in the balance. The Bombers had a 3-2 lead with Andy Pettitte lined up to pitch in his first career Game 6. Just two innings and 14 batters later though, Pettitte’s night would be over.

The Diamondbacks were merciless that Saturday night in Arizona. They scored one in the first and three in the second. Pettitte put the first two runners on in the third, and Jay Witasick, in one of the World Series’ most disastrous relief performances, came in. Witasick allowed two inherited runners to score and six more that inning. The Yanks were down 12-0 before anyone realized what just happened.

On the night, Pettitte threw just two innings and gave up six runs on seven hits and two walks. He struck out just one. Later on, word emerged that Pettitte may have been tipping his pitches. Even if he was not, that’s one game YES watchers will never see on Yankee Classics.

October 15, 2003: ALCS Game 6
Considering the outcome of Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS, Game 6 is often overlooked. In it, Joe Torre gave Pettitte the ball; Andy pitched well enough to win; and Torre and the bullpen gave this one away as the Red Sox won 9-6.

Pettitte’s final line in this outing wasn’t terrible, but it wasn’t great. He struck out five in five innings and allowed four earned runs on eight hits and two walks. The damage, though, was limited to one inning. In the third, a home run, two walks and two singles gave the Red Sox a 4-1 lead, but that would be all for the scoring against Pettitte. He left this one with the Yanks up 6-4, but Torre gave the ball to Jose Contreras, Jeff Nelson, Felix Heredia and Gabe White. Nine outs away from the World Series, Mariano Rivera never pitched, and the rest is Aaron Boone-inspired history.

October 25, 2003: World Series Game 6
Ten days after a mediocre ALCS Game 6, Pettitte got the ball with the Yanks’ backs against the wall. Heavy favorites to win the World Series, they split two games in New York against the Marlins before losing two of three in Miami. The Yankees returned, then, to Yankee Stadium needing a home sweep to win, and Pettitte, masterful in throwing eight shutout innings in Game 2, would get the ball.

Pettitte was great that night. He threw seven innings and allowed two runs, one earned, on six hits and three walks. He struck out seven and threw 71 of 106 pitches for strikes. He should have been hailed as a hero, but Josh Beckett was just better. Beckett threw a five-hit shutout and struck out nine as the Marlins stunned everyone to win the World Series.

Little did we realize at the time, but that Saturday night affair would be Pettitte’s last start in pinstripes until 2007. The Yankees assumed he would just resign with them, but the Houston Astros offered more. For three years, the Yankees had little in the way of shut-down starting pitching, and Pettitte would be missed. I’ll take another Game 6 similar to that one tonight.

October 25, 2009: ALCS Game 6
This one — the ALCS clincher — is still fresh in our minds, and every Yankee fan would take this outing and outcome from Pettitte. Facing a feisty Angels’ club and with the Yanks just 27 outs away from the World Series, Pettitte came through in a big way. In 6.1 innings, he allowed just a run on seven hits and one walk. He struck out six and threw 64 of 99 pitches for strikes. He could locate his curveball, spot his fastball and keep the Angels off balance. With Mariano Rivera in for the final six outs, the Yanks found themselves back in the Fall Classic.

And so we arrive at tonight’s game to see if a tried-and-true formula can deliver a win. Mariano Rivera has saved more wins for Andy Pettitte than any other duo in baseball history. We want one more. As we sit 27 outs away and a few hours from first pitch, Andy Pettitte, number 46, the man with the stare, will be on the mound, ready to deliver.

Categories : Playoffs
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Stressed out AndyLater on tonight, Andy Pettitte will make his final start of 2009, for better or worse. As you know, he’ll be working on three days’ rest for the first time since 2006, and many fans are concerned about how the 37-year-old will rebound on short rest. While his stats on three days’ rest are pretty good (3-1, 2.80 ERA in five career short rest starts in the playoffs), the data is so old and not indicative of anything that it might as well be recorded in hieroglyphics.

Instead of relying on those numbers, let’s take a look at how Pettitte fared on normal four days’ rest following what I’ll call “high stress outings” in 2009. By “high stress outings,” I mean starts in which Andy threw a lot of pitches while allowing lots of baserunners in not many innings. Think 5.1 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 3 BB kind of outings. Then, by looking at how he performed four days later, it’ll give us an approximation of what Pettitte will do tonight. It’s obviously not a perfect comparison, but it’s better than pretty much anything else we have right now.

Game Three over the weekend wasn’t kind to Andy, but he battled through six innings while putting eight men on base and letting four runners cross the plate. He threw 104 pitches, so it would definitely be considered a “high stress outing.” Let’s see how Pettitte rebounded from similar starts this year.

High Stress Outing: April 26th @ Boston: 6 IP, 6 H, 4 BB, 4 R, 116 pitches, -0.14 WPA
Next Start: May 1st vs Anaheim: 5.2 IP, 9 H, 4 BB, 5 R, 111 pitches, +0.02 WPA

HSO: May 18th vs Twins: 6.2 IP, 12 H, 1 BB, 4 R, 105 pitches, -0.03 WPA
NS: May 23rd vs Phillies: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 R, 114 pitches, -0.11 WPA

HSO: June 3rd vs Texas: 5 IP, 7 H, 6 BB, 4 R, 104 pitches, -0.17 WPA
NS: June 8th vs Tampa: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 R, 104 pitches, +0.06 WPA

HSO: June 25th @ Atlanta: 3.2 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 6 R, 95 pitches, -0.23 WPA
NS: July 1st vs Seattle: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 R, 98 pitches, +0.17 WPA

HSO: July 6th vs Toronto: 6 IP, 5 H, 5 BB, 6 R, 109 pitches, -0.20 WPA
NS: July 11th @ Anaheim: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 6 R, 83 pitches, -0.32 WPA

HSO: August 21st @ Boston: 5 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 7 R, 105 pitches, +0.05 WPA
NS: August 26th vs Texas: 7 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 2 R, 103 pitches, +0.23 WPA

I was going to break it down start-by-start, but after recapping the first one, I gave up because all I would be doing is giving too much credit to the already small sample size. It wasn’t worth the time.

So anyway, that’s six instances this season when Andy really had to work hard to get outs, then had to come back and pitch four days later. In those six follow-up starts, Pettitte averaged 6.1 IP, 6.2 H, 2.5 BB, 3.7 R, 102.2 pitches, +0.05 WPA, which is not great, but it’s certainly serviceable. The good news that with exception of that July 1st start against the Mariners, all of the follow-up starts came against good offensive clubs, so the data isn’t too skewed.

Pettitte’s average start this year was 6.1 IP, 6.0 H, 2.4 BB, 3.2 R, 103 pitches, +0.05 WPA, which is ridiculously close to his average in those follow-up starts. The biggest difference is that he allowed half a run more following a real tough outing, which is probably just a BABIP thing since the number of baserunners and innings pitched are nearly identical. I have to say, I’m somewhat surprised by the results.

Of course, these starts come on regular four days’ rest in the middle of the season, not three day’s rest after Pettitte already has 219.2 IP on his left arm. We can arbitrarily dock him an inning and tack on another run, meaning we should expect 5+ innings and about 5 runs tonight, but that’s nothing more than guesswork.

What I wanted to see with this post is how Pettitte rebounded after a taxing start, and as you can see above, he generally didn’t suffer any sort of hangover. It’s far from a perfect analysis, but it’s much better than just assuming he’ll do bad for no other reason than because you have a bad feeling about it.

Photo Credit: Brian Kersey, UPI

Categories : Analysis, Pitching, Playoffs
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Via Mark Carig, the Yankees will hand the ball to Andy Pettitte on three days’ rest in Game Six tomorrow night. This should surprise no one; the writing’s been on the wall for weeks. Carig notes that Pettitte feels physically fine, which is always a plus. Pettitte has not made a start on three days’ rest since Sept. 30, 2006 when he was on the Astros. A full list of Andy’s starts on three days is available here.

Andy was on the mound the last time the Yankees clinched a World Championship. Here’s to hoping he repeats the trick tomorrow night.

Categories : Asides, Playoffs
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This probably comes as little surprise to Yankee fans, but Andy Pettitte, in an interview with the L.A. Times today expressed his displeasure with the way his off-season negotiations with the Yankees ended up last winter. The veteran lefty made it clear that he wanted to return to the Yanks, but Brian Cashman and the New York brass, concerned about Pettitte’s shoulder strength, offered him a low base salary with high incentives. Although Pettitte stands to earn nearly $10 million total this year, he felt slighted by the Yanks over the winter. He is, however, over it. “I think everybody knows I wasn’t real happy with the contract,” Pettitte said. “But I wanted to take it and come back here and have a chance to do this. It’s nice to have things work out the way you think they’re going to work out. This is what I was kind of hoping for.”

The Yankees and Pettitte will probably engage in a similar dance this off-season but with a few different assumptions. Pettitte has certainly earned himself a higher base salary for 2010, and I’m sure the Yankees will keep the door open for Number 46 if he wants to return. I wonder, though, if Pettitte might retire if the Yankees win the World Series. Five rings fills up a hand.

Categories : Asides, Pitching
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Andy Pettitte is the old man in the rotation, the been there, done that, respect him just because of he is who he is veteran. He wore pinstripes in both good times and bad, and he’s got more than a full season’s worth of postseason experience in that left arm (37 starts, 231 IP career in the playoffs). His reputation as a big game pitcher is a tad exaggerated, but he’s certainly done what the Yankees needed in the past.

In his career, Pettitte’s started eight games when the Yankees had a chance to clinch a series, like they will tomorrow night. Let’s quickly recap those starts:

1996 ALCS Game Five: 8 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
Pettitte was fantastic, and it certainly didn’t hurt that the offense put up a six spot in the third inning. Yanks won the game 6-4, and took the series against Baltimore 4-1.

1997 ALDS Game Five: 6.2 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
Meh outing, Manny Ramirez’s two-run double followed by a Matt Williams RBI single in the third did him him. Yanks lose the game and the series 4-3 and 3-2, respectively.

1998 World Series Game Four: 7.1 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
Pettitte was spectacular against the overmatched Padres, but he wasn’t able to ease up until the team scored a pair of insurance run in the 8th inning. Yanks won the game 3-0, and swept the series.

2000 ALDS Game Five: 3.2 IP, 10 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
Pettitte kinda crapped the bed in the deciding game five, but luckily for him, Oakland starter Gil Heredia was even worse (six runs, one out). The bullpen held it down for 5+ innings. Yanks won 7-5, and finished Oakland off in the deciding Game Five.

2000 World Series Game Five: 7 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
Pettitte hurt himself with an error in the third, but otherwise held it down until the Yanks took the lead in the ninth. Good guys won 4-2, and took the series in five.

2001 World Series Game Six: 2 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
This was the real clunker. After two magical come from behind wins in the Bronx, Pettitte blew up in the potential clincher. He later admitted to tipping his pitches, hence all the damage. Yanks took one on the chin, losing 15-2, and we all know what happened in Game Seven.

2003 World Series Game Six: 7 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K
Andy was good, but Josh Beckett was better.

2009 ALDS Game Three: 6.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
This one was just two weeks ago, so I’m sure you remember it. Pettitte could have gone longer, but was lifted after just 81 pitches. Yanks held on for a 4-1 win, and a trip to the ALCS.

Overall, the Yanks are 5-3 when Pettitte takes the mound in a game where the Yanks could clinch the series. What does this mean for tomorrow? Absolutely nothing. These are just isolated incidents, some over ten years old. All Pettitte has to do tomorrow is what he’s been doing all year: keep the Yanks in the game, and log as many innings as possible.

Update: I missed some games. See this comment for more info.

Anyway, use this as your open thread for the night. There’s literally no local major sports team in action tonight, just the Nets in a meaningless preseason game. There’s also some college football game on, but I don’t remember the teams. You could always come hang out with me at MLBTR. Talk about whatever you want, just make sure you follow the guidelines and be nice.

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Game 3 is often the most critical one in a five-game series. In any of the three possible scenarios, a win is important. When up 2-0, winning the third game gives the team the ability to line up their Game 1 starter to start Game 1 of the ALCS. When down 2-0, the season is on the line. When tied 1-1, a win gives the team a decided advantage heading into Game 4. The Yankees went with Andy Pettitte in Game 3 this time, hoping that his strong second half would carry over to the postseason.

The Yanks got everything they could have expected from Pettitte, and might have even left some in the tank. He threw 81 pitches over 6.1 innings, striking out seven and walking just one and limiting the Twins to just one run. That lone run came in the sixth after a bases empty, two outs situation. It was all the Twins would get all night. He exited after striking out Jason Kubel to lead off the seventh, though with his low pitch count and superb results on the night, perhaps he could have finished the inning.

Joba Chamberlain made that a moot point. He made a mistake to the first batter, Delmon Young, who drove one into the gap for a one-out double. But Chamberlain beared down, inducing a soft grounder from Matt Tolbert before striking out Jose Morales to end the inning. It set up the bullpen for Phil Hughes and Mariano Rivera in the eighth and ninth.

The Twins threatened in the eighth, and if not for a baserunning blunder would have been in position to tie the game. Nick Punto, who hit over .400 in the series, hit a 2-2 pitch between Melky Cabrera and Johnny Damon for a leadoff double. The next batter, Denard Span, slapped one up the middle, but Jeter cut it off before it could leave the infield. Seeing Punto take a wide turn around third, Jeter fired home. Punto had slipped on his way back, giving Jorge Posada enough time to throw him out at third.

A first and third, no outs situation turned into a runner on first, one out situation, and it seemingly deflated the Twins. Orlando Cabrera flied out to center for the second out. That brought Joe Mauer to the plate, and Girardi did not mess around. He went to Mariano Rivera to get the AL batting champ and presumptive MVP, and the at-bat followed the script. Mauer swung at the second pitch, a cutter in on the hands, breaking his bat and grounding weakly to first. Teixeira fielded, ending the minor threat.

Mo finished off the game in typical fashion, allowing just one hit while retiring the final three batters he faced. He hit his stride after allowing a leadoff single, striking out the next two hitters before inducing a grounder to end the game.

In his first season post-Yankees, Carl Pavano fared well against his former team in the regular season. He faced them twice, pitching 13.1 innings and allowing just four runs, splitting the match-ups. He started off Game 3 even better, striking out eight and allowing just three hits through six innings. It looked like he had control of the game, and when the Twins rallied for a run in the sixth it looked like the Yankees would have a tough road ahead.

The game changed in the seventh. After going down 0-2, Alex Rodriguez took three straight pitches outside the zone to work the count full. After fouling off a pitch, he got a fastball up and on the outside edge. It’s a pitch Alex handles well, and this time was no exception. He went with it, driving it high over the baggie in right for a game-tying home run. It was Rodriguez’s second home run and sixth RBI of the series, and the second time he tied the game with a homer.

With two outs and the bases empty, Jorge Posada stepped up. He took the first pitch, a changeup, well outside for ball one. Pavano then threw a good pitch, a sinker low and away, but Jorge timed it perfectly. Delmon Young gave the ball a chase, but it was just beyond his reach, in the stands for the go-ahead run. Fitting that the Yankees, who led the majors in homers (and homers on the road) this season took the lead on a pair of homers.

Even with Mariano Rivera to pitch the ninth, the Yankees knew insurance runs wouldn’t hurt. They picked up a few of those in the ninth. Ron Gardenhire used four pitchers in the inning, and none did the job satisfactorily. Ron Mahay recorded a strikeout and then walked Teixeira. Jon Rauch walked A-Rod. Jose Mijares walked Hideki Matsui. Joe Nathan then came on to face Jorge Posda, and surrendered and RBI single. Robinson Cano then blooped in a second insurance run.

Andy Pettitte’s contribution should not be understated. Over the past three postseasons, the Yankees couldn’t overcome their pitching problems. They rebuilt the rotation this season, and it’s a big reason why they had the best record in the regular season and then swept their way through the ALDS. Andy used two variations of what he calls his cutter — one a faster pitch that more resembles a fastball, and a slower one that more resembles a slider. That, mixed with his fastball, kept the Twins off-balance. Before their rally started with two outs in the sixth, Pettitte retired 17 of the first 18 batters he faced.

Both the Yankees and Angels will enjoy a four-day vacation before squaring off in Game 1 of the ALCS Friday in the Bronx. Both teams will realign their rotations, meaning we’ll get the best possible match-ups. We’ll have plenty to say over the next few days, but for now I’m just going to enjoy this one. It sure does feel good to have the Yanks past the first round of the playoffs.

Categories : Game Stories
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For the second straight night the Yankees starting pitcher has struggled and left the game before completing five innings. Not that either would have remotely qualified for the win. On Friday CC allowed nine runs, five earned, through 2.2 innings, and last night Pettitte allowed five, three earned, in a slightly longer span, 4.1 innings. The offense could plate only three runs, and the game amounted to another loss.

Pettitte’s command was not there last night. He had trouble spotting pitches, and that led to general wildness. He threw just 54 of his 95 pitches (57%) for strikes, which is below his season average of 61 percent and even further below his second-half average of 63 percent. It led to four walks, and three of those runners scored — though the last two were because of Al Aceves’s errant throw.

It wasn’t what the Yanks were looking for from Pettitte, but then again this was just a start to stay in rhythm. No one likes it that Pettitte didn’t pitch well, but as far as next week is concerned, it means nothing. Everything starts anew then, and Pettitte will come into his first playoff start well rested. The Yanks will need him to play a big role in every series.

After the throwing error, Aceves worked a perfect 2.1 innings of relief, striking out three Rays. Gaudin followed that with 1.1 innings of one-hit ball, striking out two Rays of his own. Aceves’s spot on the postseason roster is a lock, and Gaudin’s performance, combined with his efforts in the rotation this month, should earn him a long look. He, Brian Bruney, and Joba Chamberlain are vying for what could be just one roster spot.

On the offensive side, the Yanks put on 12 baserunners, which is not a bad total, but could bring only three around to score. This was the product of a 3 for 11 mark with runners in scoring position. With a version of the B or even C lineup in, it’s tough to expect more. Matsui and Swisher were the only regulars without a hit, though Swisher drew a walk.

Just one more game to go. A.J. Burnett gets his last tune-up under acting manager Jorge Posada tomorrow afternoon. It’d be nice to see the regulars get in some hits and finish the season with a win, but if they don’t? Meh.

Categories : Game Stories
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As the Yanks prepare for a three-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays to close out the season, the playoffs are looming large in the minds of the Bombers and their fans. With the pitching match-ups set for this weekend, we know a firm sense of the Yanks’ plans and can debate the merits of the Andy-and-A.J. decision.

Earlier this week, the Yankees announced that CC Sabathia would start on Friday night in search of his 20th win. Most of the Yanks’ A team will back him up. On Saturday, Andy Pettitte will take the ball in a final regular-season tune-up, and on Sunday, A.J. Burnett and the ALDS Game 1 lineup will earn themselves at least a few innings of time on the field. And so, as I’ve done once a week or so for the last few weeks, we extrapolate.

It’s safe to assume that the Yankees are going to take the longer ALDS series to avoid the Joba/Chad Gaudin decision that looms not as large as we might think (but more on that when and if the time comes). The pitching rotation, then, looks a little something like this:

Date Game Pitcher
Oct. 2 vs. TB Sabathia
Oct. 3 vs. TB Pettitte
Oct. 4 vs. TB Burnett
Oct. 5 Off Day  
Oct. 6 Off Day  
Oct. 7 ALDS 1 Sabathia
Oct. 8 Off Day  
Oct. 9 LDS 2 Pettitte
Oct. 10 Off Day  
Oct. 11 ALDS 3 Burnett
Oct. 12 ALDS 4* Sabathia
Oct. 13 Off Day  
Oct. 14 ALDS 5* Pettitte

We know that Chip Caray and Ron Darling will be manning the broadcast booth for the Yankees vs. Tigers/Twins. Now we have a pretty good idea who will be pitching.

On Wednesday, Joe tackled the Andy-and-A.J. debate and came to the conclusion I would have drawn. “I like A.J. as much as the next guy, he wrote, “but with the season on the line, I’d rather have Pettitte on the mound.”

Personally, we’d all rather have CC Sabathia on the mound in the a do-or-die Game 5, but Game 4 could be just as important. Either the Yanks will try to close the door on the Tigers or Twins or the Bombers will have to win Game 4 to force Game 5. CC fights the bill for that match-up.

There is an interesting twist to the post-season pitching previews as well that I didn’t include in the chart. Right now, the Tigers hold a two-game lead over the Twins. In an ideal world, these two teams will tie so that they have to play a game on Tuesday. In an also-ideal world, the Twins will be a game behind the Tigers come Sunday. That day, you see, is Justin Verlander’s next start. If the Tigers face a must-win situation, they will start Verlander on Sunday, and he won’t be available to pitch on regular rest until Game 2. Although that would line him up to pitch Game 5, I’d take my chances with the rest of the Tigers’ rotation.

If the Tigers win a pair this weekend or if the Twins drop two to the Royals, the point will be moot. Verlander can rest until Game 1, and we’d have ourselves a good old fashioned pitcher’s battle to start the playoffs. I’m ready. Are you?

Categories : Playoffs
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There aren’t too many decisions left for the 2009 Yankees. Beyond some minor decisions on how to construct the postseason roster, there are only a few questions to ask. While some might be wondering if Molina will catch Burnett, I’ve got a bigger question in mind. Will the Yanks start Burnett in Game 2 or Game 3? This is no small matter. The Game 2 starter would also start a potential Game 5. Who do you trust most in that spot?

In the aggregate, Burnett and Pettitte look like similar pitchers. Their ERAs are right in line, as are their WHIP, H/9, and HR/9 numbers. Burnett strikes out more batters but also walks more, leaving the pitchers about even in K/BB. Both have had dominant stretches, A.J.’s from June through mid-July, and Andy’s in August. Using this base information it might seem like the decision could go either way. But as we’ve learned, things aren’t always as they seem in the aggregate.

Our favorite optimist notes one major difference between A.J. and Andy:

Take a look at these splits: Pettitte’s home ERA is exactly an entire run higher than his road ERA, an OPS against that’s over 100 points lower on the road and fourteen home runs surrendered at home against only five on the road.

Burnett’s splits are similar to Pettitte’s in terms of home-road difference, just reversed.

That would make it seem obvious, right? Start A.J. at home in Game 2 and then Pettitte on the road in Game 3. It’s called playing the percentages. It’s what smart managers do to win ballgames. The schedule would also point to this conclusion. If the Yankees choose the A series, as most of us expect, they’d be able to start Sabathia on normal rest in Game 1, then Burnett on normal rest in Game 2, with Pettitte starting on seven days’ rest on the 11th. If they went with Pettitte in Game 2 he’d be on five days’ rest, and Burnett would be on six days’ rest for Game 3.

Yet that doesn’t take into consideration other factors. For instance, commenter JGS on Rebecca’s post notes that Pettitte has pitched better at home since the All-Star Break:

Andy at home since the Break:
2-1, 2.79 ERA, 1.216 WHIP

Andy on the road since the break:
4-1, 3.47 ERA, 1.068 WHIP

Maybe the home/road split is a bit overblown. Do the Yankees go with the season-long numbers, or the post-break numbers, when they’ve played like a completely different team?

There’s one last monkey wrench to consider: what if the Yankees choose series B? It seems like a long shot, but it’s possible. A friend mentioned that on Baseball Tonight, Peter Gammons said he heard the Yanks were going with the B series. This would make particular sense if playing the Tigers, because it would force Jim Leyland to either use his fourth starter in a potential Game 4, or use Justin Verlander on short rest. Neither is an ideal scenario.

Choosing the B series would make the Burnett-Pettitte decision moot. Joba Chamberlain would then pitch a potential Game 4, against either Nate Robertson, Jarrod Wasburn, or Justin Verlander, and then CC would come back for a potential Game 5. The problem there is that you can’t reverse the decision mid-round. If the Yanks find themselves in an elimination Game 4, they might not want Joba out there. That would necessitate trotting out Sabathia on short rest.

If the Yanks sweep, all this will be moot. Game 3 in both series is on October 11, and the Yanks would be able to realign their rotation for the ALCS. The longer it goes, the more important the Yanks’ decisions — both the choice of series and the starter alignment — become. If the Yanks win in four with Sabathia on the mound they’d probably have to slide him back to ALCS Game 2. If the Yanks win in 5, I doubt they’ll mind holding back CC until Game 3.

I hope the Yankees choose the short series. There’s a risk in starting Joba, but that’s somewhat mitigated by CC’s potential Game 5 start. The only way that scenario plays out poorly is if the Yankees face elimination in Game 4. They’d almost have to use CC on short rest, and then their Game 2 starter in Game 5. In that regard, I’d rather see Pettitte in Game 2. I like A.J. as much as the next guy, but with the season on the line, I’d rather have Pettitte on the mound.

Categories : Playoffs
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