Nov
18

Sherman: Yanks first offer to Jeter coming soon

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Via Joel Sherman, the Yankees are planning to make Derek Jeter a three-year contract offer very soon, perhaps before the end of the week. The Yanks were hoping that Jeter’s camp would make the first offer, but apparently that’s not going to happen. Although there’s no indication as far as the amount of money they plan to offer, Sherman says it’ll likely come in around $45M, leaving wiggle room to go up to $60M. Ben went through the machinations of who wants what last night, and it doesn’t look like either side is ready to budge.

Sherman adds that the Yanks aren’t as close to making an offer to Cliff Lee, who is still in “fact finding” mode. Apparently Rangers’ team officials have told other others that if the bidding climbs to five or more years at $23M per, they’ll have trouble signing him. Good news for the Yanks.

Categories : Asides, Hot Stove League
  • TLVP

    Imagine if the 10y contract had been a 9y and expired last year? What would his Jeterness have gotten coming of teh 3rd best year of his career.

    As it is now he should jump all over 3y and $60m if it is available to him.

    If I were the Yankees I’d make an effort of securing Mo first – offer him a 2y $30-35m contract which makes them seem generous but which also makes Jeter seem extremelly greedy when he turn down a one year longer contract at $4m more per year. With one icon on board (the one likeliest to be worth his contract) The Yankees will not look like they are not taking care of their own.

    • Mike HC

      Mo pitches like 50 innings a year now. Jeter plays every inning. And the closer market is nothing close to the SS market. I really don’t think Mo will, or should, have any bearing on the Jeter deal whether you want to overpay Jeter or not.

      • TLVP

        Upfront I’m starting in 2003 because 2002 Mo had injury issues. Since then Mo has pitched 79 innings a year over the last 8 years with a maximum ERA of 3.15 – all other years sub 2. His average WHIP is 0.92. The IP includes postseason but the ERA and WHIP does not (i simply didn’t take the time)

        His 2010 numbers are bang in line with the average (except only 67 IP).

        I think the Yankees would be very happy for Mo to perform inline with 2010 and pay him $15-17.5m/y for it.

        However my point is that for teh Yankees the negotiations with Jeter are to a large extent about PR. If they win the PR battle Jeter will sign a 3y deal at $50m because he has no option. I tehy lose the PR battle public pressure will force them to go to ridicolous amounts and years.

        • OldYanksFan

          Wow…. people are real generous to Yankee players. How much do the top 5 highest paid Closers/Relievers make? Mo finished 8th in ERA last year, with the least innings of the 8 (although a few were basically the same). The highest paid guy in that group made under $8m. Don’t misunderstand me, Mo is God. Unquestionable. But really, $15m seems like a lot, especially if it’s 2 years. Should the Yankees paid 10 or 20 percent more? Sure… why not. But TWICE?

          It’s interesting that people think when a player plays their whole career with the Yankees, even though they are usually paid well and have many benefits (like rings and such), that the Yankees owe them HUGE contracts in their declining years. Do these players owe anything to the Yankees?

          And how about Mr. Team, Mr. Baseball, Mr. Unselfish… Derek Jeter? 3/$45m is shit…. right? Pujols is the best player in the game, but Jeter’s name is talked about 10 times as much. Does he realize if he didn’t play in NY, he would just be a great shortshop…. and not an icon? How about the endorsements?

          I don’t feel sorry for a $2 billion dollar corporation. But I just wonder if there is such a thing as ‘reasonable + 20%’.
          I think Cashman needs to go out drinking with Theo.

  • CountryClub

    I think it should be clarified that Sherman said this is purely speculation on his part. Other media outlets (and fans) have run with this like Sherman was given this info. He’s had good sources over the past couple of years, but he didnt attribute this to one of them.

  • Mattchu12

    Anybody else feel like Derek Jeter is going to be 2011′s Brett Gardner?

    Things got so negative against Gardner this time last year, and most people spent the whole offseason just cursing the Yankees for letting him be an everyday outfielder. But then he had a great year and now we’re all collectively considering him an above-average outfielder.

    Things are getting so negative about the Jeter negotiations, I almost have this gut feeling that he’s going to rebound in 2011 to do what he’s done every other year of his career minus 2010, and be a great hitting shortstop who plays tolerable defense.

    Anybody else having that gut feeling?

    • Corporate Scum (formerly Joe West’s Music Career)

      I think he’ll improve significantly. I do think he’s declining, and we’re not gonna see 2009 Derek, but I think he’ll be much better in 2011 than 2011.

      SPECULATION: Before 2009, he worked really hard on his lateral movement in the offseason. My guess is that after winning the World Series, he took it easy in the offseason, and clearly paid for it. Being as proud as he is, after his performance last year, I suspect he’s going to put in extra effort this offseason. Obviously just speculation, but this is my suspicion.

      • Mattchu12

        Yeah, I’m not expecting .320+ anymore, but do we really think he can’t be a .290+ guy?

        I think you’re 110% right, he’ll go bananas on himself to get his stats back up. He’s crazy proud of his work ethic. I think he’s going to be just fine for the next two or three years.

      • Mike HC

        Yea, I have been making that excuse for him all year. But it is just that, an excuse. I hope we are correct though and he bounces back (as a Yankee).

        • Mig P

          I agree with a lot of what has been said but all these talks are based on half a season worth of production. Look at Jeter stats prior to mid June and you’ll see the Jeter of old…a .300+.

          If contract talks are going to be based on pure baseball, then Jeter deserved more than a crappy 3 year $45 m deal. He should get close to AROD money. Take a look at the production by AROD and Mark T combined for the 2 and half of the season. Those totals don’t even compare to Jeter.

          What we have here is that Jeter had a bad 2nd half that’s all. This should not be cloud over his stating he is declined.

          Jeter had one of his better defensive years yet.

          Some of the things that have been missed from all these post is the fact that Jeter had production in the line in 2009. J. Damon was behind Jeter.

          I know that one must take responsibility for one’s action and so the Yankees need to own up and admit the mistake they made by not sign Damon nor Matsui.

          What is boils down to is that the Yankees are up tight up about highly warrant free agent. Look at it in this way, you don’t sign Damon and Matsui but you elect to trade Melky and get Granderson instead. So you would give up 200+ RBIS, 50+ HR, 25+ steals, for a lefty that could may be hit 15 to 20 HR, about 98 RBI and some 10 steals. That just doesn’t add up.

          So in the wise words of those who came before me:

          “If isn’t broken, don’t fix it.”

          Just to teach the Yanks a lesson, if I were Jeter, I would sign with the Mets. Image that, how would new yorkers reacts.

          Just a thought

    • Thomas

      While a lot agree with you, I have the opposite feeling. I feel 2009 was the outlier year and Jeter is in decline. His OPS+ since 2006 are:

      2006 132
      2007 121
      2008 102
      2009 125
      2010 90

      I think we’ll see some 100 OPS+ years for his contract and some below. I don’t think he will put up to 120 or even 110 season anymore. This will be paired with below average defense.

      • Clay Bellinger

        Below avg defense?!! Haven’t you heard?…he won another gold glove!

        • Thomas

          Wearing that heavy gold glove has drastically reduced his range.

      • Ed

        I think those stats actually made me feel better about him.

        Remember 2008 was the season Jeter got hit in the hand by a pitch. He was great before that, absolutely terrible for a while after that, then slowed progressed back to his usual self. I wouldn’t use 2008′s final numbers to judge his talent level.

        2006 and 2009 were two of the best years of his career. He should’ve won the MVP in 2006, and his 2009 performance was MVP worthy in most seasons.

        It’s certainly possible that 2010 is the start of his decline. At his age, the team certainly should be wary of him declining. But it’s too early make a definite call on that.

  • Reggie C.

    If DJ wants six seasons, i wonder if he’d play seasons 4,5,6 for the proverbial $1 (i.e., vet minimum). If Sherman’s right and the first offer comes in around 45 million for 3 years, then Cashman is sending a clear message that the team is ready to draw out negotiations.

    • FS7

      How said is it that offering Jeter $15 million a year, no less than twice what his actual production warrants, would be considered playing hardball?

      Every single dollar over $10-$12 million a year paid to Jeter is coming directly out of the bullpen budget. Pay Jeter $21 million a year and the bullpen will have Colter Bean and Jonathan Albaladejo.

      • Corporate Scum (formerly Joe West’s Music Career)

        “Every single dollar over $10-$12 million a year paid to Jeter is coming directly out of the bullpen budget. Pay Jeter $21 million a year and the bullpen will have Colter Bean and Jonathan Albaladejo.”

        What are you basing this statement on? You seem certain of this. Has this been stated or are you inferring?

        • Mike HC

          Yea, I mean, there is no way we know what the Yanks are willing to spend on players this year. The team is a money making machine. They can pay guys whatever they want. The only thing stopping them is probably the backlash from other owners, and the consequences that come with that.

          • JobaWockeeZ

            They’re not willing to go past 200 million. 215 at like the extreme highest.

            If Jeter lobbies hard for a raise, Mo stays the same and we add in a 25 AAV contract, they’re in trouble.

            • Jimmy McNulty

              I highly doubt that’s what will happen. They came in at slightly over 213 last year on opening day and added Berkman and Wood. I’m pretty sure they’ll live with a bloaded 2011 payroll with Posada, Pettitte, and Marte coming off the books, A-Rod’s contract going down too.

              • JobaWockeeZ

                What site gave you 213 million? I’m getting 206 million on opening day.

                I’m not sure they’ll live with a higher 2011 payroll even with all that money coming off the books. Posada frees 17 million and hopefully replaced by the 300K Montero but they might get a FA catcher if they feel the defense is too bad.

                When Pettitte leaves that’s yet anothe rgaping hole in the rotation. They will definitely go the FA route again getting Wandy Rodriguez. They won’t give the B’s, Warren or like Noesi a shot on opening day. Unless miraciously the B’s don’t struggle and sent to permament decay in the bullpen.

                • Chris

                  This is all speculation with no basis in fact.

        • FS7

          I’m basing this only on my own intuition. The Yankees have had a self-imposed relatively hard cap at $200 million. There is $20 million in dead weight coming off the books, including Vazquez, Johnson, Park, and Winn. Pettitte may be coming off the books, but that will be a net wash at best because we probably can expect to get the same performance from somebody else in 2011 as we got in 2010 for his $11.8 million.

          The other two free agents are Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter. Jeter made $22.6 million in 2010, while Rivera made $15 million. Rivera is still performing at the top of his game. Jeter isn’t. Rivera’s already overpaid, but not that ridiculous for a closer. They will both be resigned. Whatever pay cuts they take, if any, will help the team sign their other free agents.

          The Yankees have made it eminently clear that they are going to throw lots and lots of money at Cliff Lee. They probably won’t be resigning Kerry Wood, who after last year will be commanding more money. The bullpen is a known problem, and the fact that Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin threw meaningful pitches last year is evidence of that. It’s not hard to see that the more money they spend on Jeter and Rivera the less they will have to spend on other free agents.

      • Mike HC

        Which would maybe unintentionally save ourselves from offering a terrible contract to a guy who pitches 70 innings a year. I have no problem going cheap with the pen, non Mo division, like we have the past couple of years.

      • Clay Bellinger

        What reliever(s) do you think they planned on going after?

        • FS7

          They have been interested in Scott Downs over the years. It’s likely they’ll pursue him if they have the money.

          • Clay Bellinger

            No it’s not. The contracts that they’ve signed with RPs have be a disaster (Marte, Farnsworth, Karsay). Relievers are too erratic to give 3 year deals too, plus the draft pick. Their best relievers have been cheaper options (Robertson, Logan).

            • Clay Bellinger

              *be = been

            • Sayid J.

              Just because they’ve had some bad free agent contracts to relief pitchers the last few years doesn’t mean the Yankees won’t offer Downs a 3 year deal if they have the money available…

              • JobaWockeeZ

                If you can name 5 relief pitchers in the past 5 years that signed multiyear deals and worked out then I’d be open to do it. I can only name Mo. Even elite relief pitchers collapse form one year to the next. Brad Lidge, Koe Nathan, K-Rod, Brian Fuentes, Jonathan Papelbon and among others fell apart due to injuries and/or ineffectiveness.

                If the elite have a high failure rate than it’s best not to tangle with them at all. Trading and making a bullpen from within is the much better route.

                • vin

                  Now I’m curious. Maybe I’ll research multi-year relievers if I get the time.

                  • Clay Bellinger

                    It’s not a pretty scene.

                    Here’s a recent look…

                    “Last winter, clubs handed out second guarantee years to only five set-up relievers, and four of them absolutely bombed: Danys Baez of the Phillies (5.48 ERA), Ryota Igarashi of the Mets (7.12), John Grabow of the Cubs (7.36) and LaTroy Hawkins of the Brewers (8.44). The one exception was Rafael Betancourt of the Rockies (3.61).” -Tom Verducci

              • Clay Bellinger

                …but that along with the draft pick compensation make it unlikely.

                http://twitter.com/KenDavidoff.....9913679873

  • Mike HC

    The Yanks seem to be negotiating through the press in order to head off some of the backlash if things don’t go well. If I were Jeter, that would piss me off more than anything.

    • Chris

      There’s really no actual information leaked, though. There have been five hundred million articles written about what the Yankees will offer Jeter and what they’re willing to pay him, but none of them have any more real information that it will “probably” be “around” 3 years and $45M.

      • Mike HC

        http://sports.espn.go.com/new-.....id=5819502

        Read that article. If you don’t think the Yanks leaked that information in order to get a head up on the PR battle that is seemingly more and more likely, than I’m not sure what to tell you.

  • http://bloodfarm.tumblr.com matt damon wayans

    How is the rumor that the bidding for Lee might exceed 23M and 5 years a positive for the Yankees?

    • Clay Bellinger

      He didn’t say that was the rumor, he said that if that we’re to happen, the Rangers are out.

    • Jimmy McNulty

      It means they’re signing Cliff Lee at less than 5/125, that’s how.

    • JobaWockeeZ

      It’s better than 6-7 years with a 27 AAV.

  • Sal

    Can or will Lee’s agent lie about the years and dollar amount that Texas is offering to drive up the Yankees offer? Do this happen with agents during negotiations with teams? Do teams competing against each other for a player know what the other team is offering?

    • Chris

      Boras does this all the time. He’ll even arrange to have people call him while he’s meeting with a team and pretend that it’s another team making a last ditch effort to sign his guy.

    • Ed

      Cashman spoke a little about this in an interview a few years ago. No, they don’t know what other teams are offering. The agent makes claims, and the newspapers report things, which he uses to get a feel for things while it’s going on.

      After a free agent signs, Cashman checks in with the other teams to find out what they offered. He compares what the teams said to what the agent said to put together a picture of what really went down. Not everyone will tell him what they offered, and both teams and agents won’t be totally honest. But if you do this enough times, you get a pretty good feel for when people are telling the truth and when they’re bluffing.

  • JobaWockeeZ

    http://twitter.com/#!/SI_JonHe.....0005237760

    If Jeter accepts this I’ll do backflips.

    • JobaWockeeZ
      • RL

        Can’t access twitter at work. Details??

        • Clay Bellinger

          “#yankees will make jeter a 3-year offer soon, as @joelsherman1 sugested. $45 mil is probably ballpark figure”

          …from Heyman’s twitter.

          • RL

            Thanks.

    • Mattchu12

      Seconded.

  • http://www.secondavenuesagas.com Benjamin Kabak

    Apparently Rangers’ team officials have told other others that if the bidding climbs to five or more years at $23M per, they’ll have trouble signing him.

    If it’s only about money, the Yanks will win the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. They can always overwhelm the Rangers’ offer. If it’s about anything other than money, all bets are off.

    • Clay Bellinger

      but…what about that whole tax thing?

      • Thomas

        Agent: Cliff, something must be done! Signing with the Yankees would mean a prohibitive increase in your taxes.
        Lee: Hey, right now I play in Taxes.
        Agent: No, I’m talking about taxes – money, dollars!
        Lee: Dollars! There’s-a where I play! Dollars, Taxes!

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          (golf clap)

          • Corporate Scum (formerly Joe West’s Music Career)

            +1

        • Clay Bellinger

          hahaha

        • RL

          I laughed out loud (at work!)

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

            Cue Dueling Banjos.

    • Jimmy McNulty

      Maybe Cliff Lee would sign with the Yankees if Jorge lets him motorboat his wife.

    • vin

      I wonder if the Yanks just start the bidding at or around that price. Kind of like the CC non-bidding war. Go for the knock-out in the first round.

  • vin

    FWIW, Jeter’s BAbip last year was a career low (by a lot) .307. His career average is .356, and his averages from 07-09 was .367, .333, .368.

    Now there can be a few reasons why his BAbip would drop so much from his recent average, but his walk and K rate last year was in line with what he has done recently.

    If I had to bet, I think 2009 and 2010 were both outliers in opposite directions. I expect him to regress to his mean (.345± wOBA) over the next 2-3 years.

    • JobaWockeeZ

      Which is due to his 65 percent GB rate. Very above what he normally does. And thus his LD rate is the lowest it’s ever been.

      I don’t know if it’ll regress to the mean but I’m not putting my money on it.

      • vin

        The GB and LD rates are alarming, as well as the lack of fly balls. Jeter usually turns those fly balls into HR’s and doubles in the alley. I’m hoping he was hiding an injury which prevented him from driving the ball. If not, then maybe KLong can try to work some magic.

    • Ed

      If I had to bet, I think 2009 and 2010 were both outliers in opposite directions. I expect him to regress to his mean (.345± wOBA) over the next 2-3 years.

      Isn’t that obvious? One was an MVP level season, the other was the worst of his career. Unless you think he completely fell off a cliff, there should be some regression to the mean, even considering his age.

  • http://kierstenschmidt.com Kiersten

    3/$45 would be perfect. 3/$60 would even be ok. Jeter just accept the damn deal so we can move on with our lives.

    • Chris

      The Yankees haven’t made an offer, so how could he accept?

      • http://kierstenschmidt.com Kiersten

        Did you read the title of this post?

    • Kit

      Agreed so hard.

  • felixE

    And to truly move on with our lives, I think I need Justin Upton…

  • JeffG

    60 seems overboard. If they have that cash I’d offer the 3/45 and 10 mill for his 3,000th hit. Add a club option for a fourth year at 15 with a 5 mill buyout.

    Marketing bonuses… do count toward the the lux tax?

    • steve (different one)

      This adds up to $60 million

  • Peedlum

    Where else would he go? Who could arguably afford to pay him $15-20M and has a SS need?

    Boston, Toronto, Baltimore, Detroit, Nationals, Cubs, White Sox? Even that’s charitable, I think. Anyone else have enough cash and a need?

    Boston has Scutaro, who had a similar year and costs a lot less.

    Does Jeter really want to play in Toronto or Baltimore, looking up at the Yankees in the standings?

    The Nats are a 90 loss team and without Strasburg for a year.

    The Cubs are a possibility, but would they sign him for more than 3 years? Same with the White Sox.

    Detroit seems to love older players, so they are the only real competition I can see. Would they tie up 6 years and $100M in Jeter, though?

    I love Jeter, but I love winning more and there’s no reason to further handicap the roster with bad contracts. I say play hardball and let him see if he finds anything better.

  • Troy V

    Giving Derek Jeter multiple guaranteed years would be a serious mistake i hope the Yankees don’t make.But they need to offer him so much money for one year that he’s compelled to stay and get his 3000 hits as a Yankee.At the same time the Yankees shouldn’t ballon their payroll.so offering him one year at 30 mill-15 mill in 2011 and another 15 mill at 5 mill a year for 3 years should do it for both parties.If they need to add another 2 to 4 years in deferred payments for another 10/20 assuming this is fits financially then make it happen.but they shouldn’t give Jeter any multiyear deals.his skills are obviously deminishing and being such a light weight hitter he doesn’t tranlate well as a 3rd baseman DH or corner outfielder for the future and as far as 2012 it would seem Arod is destined for the DH spot at that time.And it would seem some oportunities will present itself to upgrade both short and 3rd with a trade or free agency pick up in 2012.