Cashman: Dellin Betances will start for Triple-A Scranton

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Open Thread: 2/25 Camp Notes

Via Chad Jennings: Brian Cashman confirmed that prospect/suspect Dellin Betances will open the season as a starter for Tripe-A Scranton, just like last season. He’s expected to join Adam Warren, Brett Marshall, Vidal Nuno, and Shaeffer Hall in the rotation. Hall could get stuck spending a third year with Double-A Trenton if the Yankees sign a veteran depth starter.

Betances, 24, was so awful as a starter for Scranton last year (6.39 ERA and 5.88 FIP) that he had to be demoted to Double-A, where he was slightly less awful (6.51 ERA and 4.15 FIP). Betances pitched in relief during the Arizona Fall League and it seemed like he would continue to pitch out of the bullpen going forward since his command and mechanics have shown negligible improvement during his 6+ year pro career. The Yankees will burn Dellin’s final minor league option this year, meaning he’ll have to pass through waivers to go to the minors starting in 2014. It’s make or break time, if he doesn’t show any improvement early in the season they should stick him in the bullpen quickly and salvage whatever value they can.

Hot .GIF Action: Corey Black
Open Thread: 2/25 Camp Notes
  • Robinson Tilapia

    For the love of God, Dellin, pitch well. Make NYC proud.

  • Barry’s Gift Basket

    So, any group of pitching prospects that get a nickname in wich the “B” has an important role, won’t live to expectations.

    Note taken.

  • Ben

    Betances was such a valuable pitcher his first few years in the minor leagues. Its tough to see his skills becoming a negative trend. Some players I guess start to burnout after years of trying to get to the Majors. My brother is currently playing for the KC Royals and its a daily grind everyday. its a stressful job to compete 110% for years

    • jjyank

      Who’s your brother?

      • AlfonsoSoriSignMeNow (Formerly ThatstheMelkyMesaWaysa)

        I think you just asked what we were all thinking.

        • Robinson Tilapia

          Are you really giving up on Mesa when he’s got a decent shot at being the starting LF? REALLY?!?!

          • ThatstheMelkyMesaWaysa

            You make a valid point. The MelkMan lives on. But seriously I can’t take this suspense. Who is Ben’s brother?

      • MannyGeee

        “Oh, did I say KC Royals? I meant, KC’s Rib Shack. Sunday night over 40 league… God damn autocorrect…”

  • Mike Eder

    Betances K% as a starter in AA was 20%, and as a reliever was 23%.
    His nB% (BB-IBB+HBP) as a starter was 13%, and as a reliever was 13%.

    In comparison to Betances’ 20% K rate and 13% nB%, Brett Marshall had a 9% nB% and a 18% K rate.

    Betances can obviously be wild, but he wasn’t as bad as his 4.8 BB/9 in AA indicates. It’s better to look at his 11.2 BB%. Just to see how flawed BB/9 is, Marshall had an 8.0 BB% but a 3.0 BB/9.

    Here’s a good post on why BB/9 is so flawed.

    Anyway, what I’m trying to say is that Betances’ 11.2 BB% is high, but it’s not as awful as his 4.8 BB/9 indicates. For the most part, Marshall and Betances had very similar seasons in AA, and age aside, I think there’s still some hope for the 24 year old. Considering his walk rates are essentially the same out of the bullpen and as a starter in 2012, you might as well give him another try in the rotation.

    • Now Batting

      How does your example illustrate BB/9 being flawed? Marshall’s BB% is about 30% better and his BB/9 is 36% better. Not a huge difference.

      • Mike Eder

        6% is a pretty significant difference here. What we’re seeing is that a player’s BB/9 is dependent about their hits and strikeouts.

        Marshall is giving up walks 8% of the time, and hits 23% of the time. Betances is giving up walks 11% of the time, but hits 20% of the time. In both situations, batters are getting on at the same rate, but in theory Betances is giving up less total bases.

        Because of the flaws in BB/9, and less of an influence on Betances’ high strikeout numbers and low hit rates, most people would think that Marshall had the better season.

        • Now Batting

          Batters are hitting .230 and .200 off Marshall and Betances? Without checking that doesn’t sound right.

          • Mike Eder

            You’re dividing by plate appearances, not at bats.

            We don’t have all the data we need on FanGraphs to calculate AB’s, but it’s roughly batters hitting .247 against Betances, and .251 off of Marshall.

            • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting)

              Trenton 2012 only:
              Batters vs. Marshall: 247/316/356
              Batters vs. Betances: 330/418/468 (250/406/408 for Scranton)

              • Mike Eder

                Unfortunatly the data is incomplete for Betances, who threw 56.2 inning for Trenton. Marshall is also missing 5 innings.

                • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting)

                  Good catch. But still, it doesn’t appear those missing innings would come close to overcoming the over .200 point difference in OPS against (though it does appear Marshall’s missing start was a bad one).

                  • Robinson Tilapia

                    Good stuff here, both of you.

  • Greg

    maybe both Betances and Brackman can still switch to basketball? They’re tall enough.

    • Govin

      Hey you’ve got something there, maybe the Yankees can do a three team trade. We just need to ship Betances of to a besketball team, and somehow get Colin Kaepernick from the forty-niners. This ones just for Pat D, Tim Tebow was a good baseball player, and I do believe the Jets are trying to trade him. Now I just have to go look in the old rulebook and see if cross sports trades are legal.

  • http://none Ton Lon ton

    Paul oneill will be back

    • Havok9120

      Another offseason exile has returned.

      • Robinson Tilapia

        Clearly not in midseason form.

  • LK

    Really no reason not to give it one more shot.

  • emac2

    Why make any effort to salvage a penny? Let him start and let someone else convert him if it doesn’t work.

    He simply isn’t needed as a reliever and I would let him start and dump him if he doesn’t turn it around. We have plenty of good relief prospects.

    • Peter Lacock

      Ha Ha,
      you might want to re-think that.
      I hope you’re kidding.