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Luke Voit is Carrying the Yankees. You Can Thank the Front Office.

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(Presswire)

The Yankees, as of last October, have around 20 analysts employed in their front office, per Marc Carig and Eno Sarris of The Athletic (subs req’d). The next closest American League team employs 15 (Houston) and only Los Angeles has as many. In other words, the Yanks invest more capital and staffing into their analytical department than nearly any other franchise in the league—and Yankee fans should be extremely grateful for that. After all, without them, Luke Voit would likely still be in St. Louis.

The Yankees analytical staff had their eye on Voit since at least 2017, with Cashman saying that “[my staff] were all pushing his name hard” and that “he was somebody on our radar.” At last year’s deadline, they traded Gio Gallegos and Chasen Shreve for Voit, who proceeded to hit .333/.405/.689 (194 wRC+) with 14 home runs in 148 plate appearances for the Yankees down the stretch. A small sample size, but one buoyed by an elite batted ball profile that suggested that Voit might, in fact, be the real deal. Let’s take a look at what he’s done so far.

2019 Performance

His performance in early 2019 continues to bolster his case, and he’s quickly becoming a fan favorite in New York. He’s hitting .276/.388/.551 (149 wRC+) with 8 home runs in the early going, walking 13% of the time and carrying a depleted and decimated Yankee lineup. In fact, as Mike noted last night, Voit is 11-27 (.407) with a .483 OBP in the six games since Judge went down. He has four home runs in that span, including one last night.

Here’s how Voit stacks up against the 31 qualified first basemen:

  • Batting Average: .276 (12th)
  • On-Base Percentage: .388 (8th)
  • Slugging Percentage: .551 (10th)
  • Home Runs: 8 (tied for 3rd)
  • wOBA: .396 (7th)
  • wRC+: 149 (8th)
  • fWAR: 9 (tied for 6th)

Voit is essentially in the top third in every relevant offensive category for his position this year after being the game’s best trade deadline acquisition last year. His average is climbing, he gets on base, he hits for power, he is good relative to his peers, and his expected stats are solid. Not bad for a guy nobody had heard twelve months ago, is it?

Still, though, this is only just about 100 plate appearances. That’s still not a lot (even when counting the 150 from 2018) and it’s still possible that there is a lot of small sample size noise. To really get a sense of what’s driving Voit’s success, we’ll need to take a deeper dive into his batted ball profile.

Batted Ball Profile and Approach

One of Statcast’s most useful statistics is the “barrel”, which is a term for the optimal batted ball event. In other words, it’s the best outcome a hitter can produce at the plate: it means he hit the ball hard and at the right angle. In 2016, for example, players hit .822 with a 2.386 slugging percentage on barrels.

201 players have put at least 50 balls in play (batted ball event, or BBE) in 2019 so far, and only three of them (Pete Alonso, Anthony Rendon, and Franmil Reyes) have produced more barrels per plate appearance than Luke Voit (13.5%). When it comes to converting BBEs into the optimal outcome, only Alonso is better. Just over a 5th of every ball Luke Voit puts into play is a barrel. That seems good!

What’s really encouraging about these figures is that they align with what he produced in 2018. Last year, Voit led baseball in barrels per plate appearance after the trade deadline (among batters with at least 100 BBE), hitting a barrel 12.4% of the time. Luke Voit hits the ball really hard and he does it at the right angle. Put simply, that suggests that there is much more to Voit’s success than a small sample size. In fact, Voit’s average exit velocity ranks in the 85th percentile in the league. If, somehow, you’re still on the fence about Voit, just remember: you can’t fake hitting the ball hard.

In fact, that’s exactly why Voit’s expected stats rank near the top of the league. Again, courtesy of Statcast:

Voit’s expected batting average, expected weighted on-base percentage and expected slugging percentage rank in the 72nd, 94th, and 95th percentile of the league this year respectively. What that tells you is that he’s not getting lucky on the balls he puts into play and that, in fact, his batted ball profile suggests he could even be a bit better than what he’s actually produced in 2019. The underlying data loves Luke Voit. It really does.

Finally, Voit has a good approach at the plate. He swings at fewer balls out of the zone (26%) than league average (30%) and he attacks the ball in the zone, swinging at 78% of all strikes he sees. Voit is aggressive but manages to lay off pitches out of the zone. That’s exactly what you want, even if he’s a bit below average when it comes to making contact. Good things happen when you swing at strikes and lay off the junk.

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This is what the Yankees front office saw in Luke Voit at the time of the trade, though MiLB batted ball data is proprietary. We can’t see it. They believed Voit had the profile of someone poised for a breakout, a diamond in the rough. I think it’s safe to say that they hit a home run with this one, no matter what he does in the rest of his career. You can’t take away those plate appearances. They happened and they have helped the Yankees.

It can sometimes be easy to forget, as a Yankee fan who interacts with mostly other Yankee fans, why the rest of the country and league despise the Yankees. It’s not just that they haven’t been bad in 25 years or that they have the most championships in league history. That’s a big reason why, of course, but there’s more than that.

It’s because when they trade a minor prospect and worst reliever in their pen for a first basemen nobody has heard of, that first basemen turns around and hits .309/.398/.630 (174 wRC+) with 22 homers and 30 extra base hits in 264 plate appearances. Factor in the injuries the Yankees have faced during the end of 2018 and early going in 2019, and you can easily make the case that Luke Voit (!) has been the key cog in the Yankees offensive machine, keeping them alive. That’s why people hate the Yankees.

Brett Gardner Has Been A Great Yankee. Don’t Overlook Him.

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Brett Gardner hit the 100th home run of his career on Wednesday night, in dramatic fashion: a 7th inning, go-ahead grand slam against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees had struggled all night to get anything going against former Yankee Nathan Eovaldi but pounced on the Sox’ shaky bullpen, and it was fitting that the Yankees’ longest-tenured player was the one to deliver the decisive blow. His career is on the downswing, and if 2019 is not his final year, 2020 almost surely will be. Before then, Yankee fans should take the time to appreciate a player who has had a fine career as a New York Yankee, consistently providing consistent and overlooked value to what was often one of the league’s best teams during his tenure here.

A 100 home-run career feels slightly underwhelming in the post-steroid era: after all, a generation of fans watched sluggers like Barry Bonds almost hit that many in a single season. But that view is short-sighted. Consider that 19,472 players have played baseball at the MLB level and that, as friend of RAB James Smyth noted on Twitter, only 895 have hit 100 home runs. That means that Brett Gardner is the newest member of a club to which only 5% of all MLB players in history belong.

That is quite the accomplishment for a player who, at age 17, was not even sure he would make the roster at the College of Charleston in South Carolina. In fact, he originally didn’t: he was cut after trying out for the team as an unrecruited walk-on. But he showed up for practice anyway and was never asked to leave again, eventually drafted in the third round of the 2005 draft by the Yankees after hitting .447 as a college senior. He has never left the Yankees organization, either.

He made his Yankee debut in 2008, and is the only player left on the current Yankees to have donned the pinstripes at the original House that Ruth Built. Since then, he has hit .260/.344/.391 (102 wRC+) in 1377 games for the Bombers, compiling 37.5 bWAR. He is renowned for his patience at the plate, always taking pitches and ranking toward the top of the league in pitches per plate appearance. He was an All-Star in 2015 and a World Series winner in 2009.

On top of league average offense—which was often more than that in his prime, as he posted a 127 wRC+ season in 2012 and several others above 110—he was a fantastic defender in the outfield. Four times in his career, Brett saved more than 10 runs in the outfielder and twice exceeded 20, with 25 and 23 DRS in 2010 and 2011, respectively. He saved 17 runs in 2017, and, even last year, he saved 8 runs. He has been an above-average defender (often well-above-average) for a decade. He won a Gold Glove in 2016.

That defensive prowess, in which he manned the spacious left field at Yankee Stadium, was made possible by Gardner’s trademark speed—speed that hasn’t left him. As Mike noted in Gardner’s 2019 season preview, Gardner remains as speedy as ever. To the numbers, using sprint speed from Statcast:

  • 2016: 28.7 feet per second (69th in MLB)
  • 2017: 28.8 feet per second (71st in MLB)
  • 2018: 29.2 feet per second (37th in MLB)
  • 2019: 28.8 feet per second (27th in MLB)

That has made him a prolific baserunner, logging above-average baserunning figures according to both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference last year. In other words, even as his offensive skills have depreciated, he has remained an efficient, above-average baserunner with above-average defense and one of the league’s speediest players.

Those skills, odd as it may seem, are why Gardner was able to join the exclusive 100 home run club last week: he was always offering value to the Yankees. Consider that he has been worth less than 3 bWAR exactly once (discounting 2012 when he logged only 16 games) after he became a full-time player in 2010, That was last year, and it was 2.8, meaning that Gardner has been a consistent 3-win player for a decade. Even though that’s not superstar material, it is a very valuable MLB player—and a rare one, at that.

Gardner has played with inner-circle Hall of Famers and with big-name superstars with divisive personalities that command talk radio attention and tabloid headlines. Through it all, he has provided steady clubhouse leadership and been an unofficial captain of sorts of the new Yankees, alongside CC Sabathia and Aaron Judge.

Brett Gardner’s career has been easy to overlook, but that doesn’t mean you should overlook it. After all, either after this year or next, he will no longer be a Yankee—and when that time comes, I suspect you’ll find yourself missing the speedy, efficient outfielder who has so woven himself into the fabric of the New York Yankees that you barely even notice he is there, doing what he has always done.

The Yankees Need Chad Green to Step Up

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(Presswire)

The beginning of the season has been a struggle for the Yankees, who have won only 5 of their first 13 games. A large part of those struggle is that the players currently on the IL would likely win the AL Central if healthy and surrounded by replacement level players—turns out it’s tough to win games when 5 regulars, your ace starter and ace reliever are simultaneously out. The Yankee bullpen has yet to pick up the slack, with both Chad Green and Zack Britton not performing to expectations.

There is still quite a bit of noise in the data at this point in the season—seriously, it’s been only 13 games even if it feels like it’s been a lifetime—and early-season small sample size has a way of making one look like a fool by the time the weather warms up. But we can still discern trends and identify areas to watch as the season grows older, and that does have real analytic value. Regarding the Yanks bullpen, I am considerably more concerned with Green’s struggles than Britton’s over the long-run, so let’s take a look at what could be going wrong for the Yankees once-fireman.

Fastball Reliance

We’ve covered this quite a bit at RAB before, so you should all be familiar by now: Green really, really relies on his fastball. Check this out:

Since Green fully became a reliever, and a good one in that, in 2017, he has essentially used only two pitches: his four-seam fastball and his slider. The slider is more for show, as it’s not that effective. That’s why he ends up using the four-seamer more than 75% of the time. Last year it was even higher than that, peaking at 93% of the time last June. That’s because his slider isn’t all that effective. He’s hovering at about 75% fastballs so far in 2019, though it’s worth noting he’s re-added his splitter to his arsenal, which Mike covered a few weeks ago. It’s too early to worry about how effective it is—but it’s interesting that Green is trying the splitter again.

Green really needs his fastball to be effective for him to be successful, and while he was still very good last year, there are clear signs that his hitters were adjusting to his fastball. Take a look at this table, comparing his fastball in 2017 and 2018:

Those are still good numbers, sitting comfortably above-average to elite, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t red flags here, especially for a fastball only pitcher. Hitters started squaring Green up a lot more in 2018, as evidenced above and by an increased HR/9 and reduced K%. It was a lot harder for Green to blow fastballs by MLB hitters in 2018, and that has been so far again this year. That’s probably why he’s trying to fold in more splitters: by introducing that pitch, he hopes to keep hitters off balance and regain that four-seamer’s elite effectiveness.

Existing Red Flags

Relievers are notoriously fickle and unpredictable—that’s why those who are predictable usually tend to be well-paid—and one pitch guys like Green are more susceptible to quick, ugly backslides. (Remember the relievers are fungible days? That was all the rage in the analytic community a few years back.) In fact, there have already been a few existing red flags, even from Green’s dominant 2017. To the data:

Good grief, those 2019 numbers. But leaving those aside, there are interesting data points there in both 2017 and 18, when Green was extremely effective: hard hit % and exit velocity. What those graphs show is that it was really, really hard to make contact against Green but when batters did, they tended to hit the ball fairly hard. His fastball was just so overpowering that it generated a lot of swings and misses, and its spin-rate was so high that it looked even faster than it was.

As Mike has said repeatedly, though, when you only rely on a fastball at the Major League level, batters will eventually start to square you up unless you can keep them honest. That’s why Green dropped off a bit last year. This year, Green hasn’t been able to get the fastball by anyone: he is striking out only 11% of batters compared to about 35% in the last two seasons.

That means more batters are making contact, and, as we’d expect, hitting the ball hard. They’re waiting for the fastball. Hopefully, that’s just a small-sample-size, early-season noise—but as the earlier chart showed, his velocity and spin-rate are trending downward since 2017, in concert with his effectiveness. That trend has continued this year, but I didn’t include 2019 figures because it’s still way too small of a sample to really matter. With that said, however, it should be clear by now how troubling these trends are for a guy with Green’s arsenal.

A Way Forward?

All is not lost, however. Again, it’s extremely early in the year, with the Yankees playing in some cold, rainy conditions recently, including his rough appearance last night. Maybe Green’s velocity increases as the weather warms up and it gives him that extra edge again. That’s just Something To Watch for now, as is his ability to generate swings and misses at the top of the zone.

But what if the velocity doesn’t come back? In that case, it’s going to be extremely important for Green to develop a secondary pitch that is there for more than show. Even in its diminished state, his fastball is an above-average pitch. He can be a very effective reliever and a key part of the Yankee bullpen with it, but that will be considerably easier with a pitch with movement, so keep an eye on that splitter. If batters start biting, that will be a good sign for Green and the Yankees in the long-term.

The problem is that he’s never been able to develop that pitch before in his career, and his MLB success has always been buoyed by his fastball. Given the depleted state of the roster and general ineffectiveness of the bullpen so far in 2019, the Yankees had better hope that’s about to change.

It’s Time For Gleyber Torres to Hit Leadoff

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(Presswire)

The 2019 Yankees have suffered a full season’s worth of injuries despite the fact that the new campaign is barely a week old. The injuries are significant: with four starting position players, the rotation ace and the bullpen ace on the IL, that adds up to roughly 25 WAR in 2018, using FanGraphs for the batters and Baseball-Reference for the pitchers. The depleted state of the roster gives new urgency to early April games, as the Yankees cannot afford to dig themselves too deep a hole in the early going before returning to full strength in (hopefully) May.

The good news is that the rival Red Sox have started the season even worse than the Yanks: they’re 2-7, having been thoroughly embarrassed in Arizona last night, and they’ve seen their playoff odds drop all the way to 70 percent, per FanGraphs. The Sox are healthy (with the possible exception of Chris Sale, who has yet to garner a swing and miss on a fastball) and will surely bounce back soon, but the Yankees have to be thanking their lucky stars that Boston has scuttled out of the gate. Truthfully, Yankee fans should be, too – imagine the takes if the Sox started 2019 like they did 2018.

In any case, the Yankees cannot rely on their competition playing below expectations. The team won’t be healthy for a while and simply needs to not bury themselves early. They should be up to the task, but it starts with giving their best hitters the most at-bats. That means Aaron Boone should hit Gleyber Torres leadoff, at least until Aaron Hicks returns.

The case for Gleyber is pretty straightforward. Let’s get right into it, starting with what the typical leadoff man has done recently.

What’s The Average Leadoff Hitter Like?

 First, let’s look at how leadoff hitters stack up compared to the rest of their competition. The following table shows the triple-slash and walk/strikeout rate for leadoff batters in the AL and NL, with the third row reserved for the league average in 2018, all per FanGraphs:

There are clear takeaways here, all of which were fairly predictable: the average leadoff batter hits for a higher average, gets on base more, hits for power and strikes out less than the average player in the league, though they walk at virtually the same clip. Leadoff hitters tend to be better, obviously.

That’s not breaking any new ground, and that is how it should be: the top spot in the lineup got 22,631 plate appearances in 2018: that’s 500 more than batters hitting 2nd, 2,000 more than the 5th spot in the order and 4,000 more than the “second leadoff” hitter batting 9th. In other words, teams give more at-bats to better players. Simple enough.

That’s particularly relevant to the Yankees, though, who have often used either D.J. LeMahieu or Brett Gardner in the spot this year—and as much as I think DJLM got short shrift from fans or how much I love Gardner, it’s pretty hard to argue that those two deserve to get the most at-bats in April. They’re not the Yankees best hitters, even among the depleted lineup. Given their scuttling rivals and own struggles, the Yanks simply cannot afford to waste any opportunity to maximize their production. These games are important now, despite the rainy spring weather. 

How does Gleyber Stack Up?

Things brings us to Gleyber. As we all know, Torres was generally the 9th hitter for the Yanks last year and lived primarily in the bottom third of the order. A look at the data clearly shows that it’s time for that to change. Let’s bump that same chart from above here, this time replacing the final row (average hitters) with Gleyber’s 2018 production:

It’s important to remember that Torres was a 21-year-old rookie last year, thrust into a playoff race fresh off a truncated 2017 MiLB season: those numbers show that the kid can play. While he strikes out more than average for the spot, that’s more than made up by the rest of the line: Gleyber hit for higher average, got on base more regularly and hit for significantly more power than the normal leadoff hitter.

A deeper dive suggests that Torres is ready for more plate appearances, too. Torres made contact with 82% of all strikes he swung at (higher than Judge) and swung at balls out of the zone only 30% of the time (about the same as Judge) in 2018. Making contact with balls in the zone and taking the bad stuff is prototypical leadoff material and is the sign of a patient hitter; Torres saw 4.03 pitches per plate appearance last year, backing up that assertion.

Folks, Gleyber Torres is The Real Deal. Turns out there was a reason he was such a highly-touted prospect for so long.

Don’t Waste His Talent Now

But the Yankees and Aaron Boone have not properly used their young stud. In fact, they’re actively wasting his talent so far in 2019. Consider Thursday’s game at Camden Yards. Torres saved the game, slugging two home runs and injecting new life into a struggling Yankee offense. The problem? He was hitting 7th, ahead of Clint Frazier and Tyler Wade—not setting the table for Judge, Voit and Sanchez.

A guy who can change the outcome of a game with one or two swings shouldn’t waste away at the bottom of the lineup, especially now. It’s one thing when the lineup is fully healthy and the Yankees return to their rightful place as one of the league’s most feared offensive juggernaut, but it’s another altogether when Wade, Tauchman, and others are getting significant playing time. Stacking the best hitters at the top of the lineup simply makes sense: think of Boston last year, who masked a poor bottom third of the lineup with a truly fearsome top half. That’s what the Yankees need to do right now.

Again, the Yankees need to tread water (at the very least) before returning to full strength, and the best way to do that is to ensure that the very best hitters on the team get the most opportunities. If Aaron Boone is smart, he will adjust his lineup to reflect the fact that Gleyber Torres has proven that he is more than just a prospect, and he will give Torres the opportunity to do his part to keep the Yankees afloat during the rough waters of early 2019.

Trends to Watch as James Paxton Makes His Yankee Debut

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(Presswire)

When James Paxton takes the mound today for the Yankees’ second game of the season against the Orioles, he will do so as the marquee acquisition of the 2018 offseason. Paxton, who was acquired early in the offseason, almost became an afterthought following an often frustrating offseason despite his top-of-the-rotation talent. The reality, though, is that he is the biggest upgrade over the 2018 team: he boasts a 3.52 ERA (117 ERA+) from 2016-18 with excellent peripherals (10+ K/9, 2 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9) and overpowering stuff as a lefty.

The new Yankee has shown ace-like capability on the mound in Seattle; as both Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs and Zach Kram of The Ringer noted in November, Big Maple ranks near the top of the league in nearly every important statistical category on a per usage basis. The Yankees obviously expect more of the same from him, and perhaps even a bit more: despite his dominance, injuries have prevented Paxton from truly entering the ace conversation.

As Paxton prepares to make his Yankee debut, there are several areas on which every fan should keep their eye. Most all of them in some way are based on the tension between the Yanks’ anti-fastball approach and Paxton’s approach, and I’m really excited to see the dynamic play out. Let’s break this one down.

Fastball Usage

 The Yankees have a clear anti-fastball pitching philosophy, preferring instead for their pitchers to increasingly rely on off-speed stuff with movement instead of an over-reliance on fastballs. We’ve covered this extensively at RAB, and it’s something for which the Yankees are generally known – Sonny Gray even complained about it in an interview with The Athletic (subs req’d) last month.

Last year’s mid-season acquisitions of J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn, two pitchers who use their fastball at a higher percentage than nearly anyone else, bucked the trend, but it was reasonable to wonder if that’s just because they were the best available options amid a title pursuit. But the offseason acquisition of Paxton means that the last three pitchers the Yankees have brought on board all love to throw their fastball. Here are the five pitchers who most relied on their fastball in the 2018 season:

  1. Lance Lynn: 88.9%
  2. James Paxton: 81.5%
  3. David Price: 74.9%
  4. Jon Lester: 74.8%
  5. J.A. Happ: 73.3%

It will be really interesting to see how this dynamic plays out throughout 2019. As Mike noted in his reaction to the Paxton trade, the Yankees let both Happ and Lynn throw tons of fastballs after the deadline, so it’s no guarantee that they tinker with Paxton. Nevertheless, I suspect we’ll see Paxton rely more on his offspeed stuff than he ever did with Seattle. The Yanks have Paxton for at least the next two years and I don’t think they’re moving away from their anti-fastball approach: Lynn, Happ and Paxton have simply been the best available pitchers.

In any case, keep an eye out for Paxton’s fastball usage. As we’ll get into in the following sections, his fastball is a true weapon, and how he and the Yankees approach this year will be fascinating. It will offer an interesting insight into both the Yankees’ own internal philosophy, Paxton’s flexibility, and if he does make a change, whether it helps him take that next step to true acehood.

Aggressiveness

If they do make a change, it will also be interesting to see how relying more on offspeed pitches will impact Paxton’s approach – something that means a lot to him.

Paxton told The New York Times that while he isn’t big on advanced analytics, he has created a stat of his own to measure his success: the percentage of at-bats in which, after three pitches, the at-bat is already completed or Paxton leads with a 1-2 count. He calls it A3P – after three pitches – and it is a neat view into Paxton’s approach. He clearly values aggression and getting ahead in the counts, which might partially explain his reliance on the fastball.

There is a good reason for this, as controlling the count obviously gives the pitcher an advantage. Batters hit only .200/.235/.289 in 0-1 counts, .155/.194/.226 when it’s 1-2 counts and 127/.150/.183 in 0-2 counts against Paxton – and while every pitcher, obviously, will perform best in pitchers’ counts, Paxton becomes nearly unhittable even when just a strike ahead.

It sounds simple enough because it is. Aggression is something that every pitcher preaches – as do the Yankees themselves – but a year and a half of watching Sonny Gray tentatively approach hitters and nibble at the corners should prove that it’s not quite as easy as it sounds.

Relying more on off-speed stuff might draw out at-bats by putting Paxton behind in the count, or it might not matter at all. For today, at least, Paxton should have no problems: The Orioles are one of the league’s free-swinging teams and we should expect Paxton to attack their AAA lineup with confidence. Beyond his first start, though, how Paxton attacks the zone will be something to watch in 2019, and how effective he is at staying ahead will be indicative of his success.

Swing and Misses

Missing bats is the name of the game for pitchers: stop the batter from making contact and you’ve done your job. Paxton is one of the league’s best at missing bats, and that’s especially exciting given his status as a flame-throwing lefty. His stuff is simply nasty – especially the fastball we just talked about. Again, to the leaderboard, this time for whiffs-per-swing on fastballs:

  1. Jacob deGrom: 17.3%
  2. Justin Verlander: 15.8%
  3. Max Scherzer: 15.4%
  4. Gerrit Cole: 15.3%
  5. James Paxton: 13.7%
    MLB Average: 9.6% 

That’s some elite company, and it alone suggests that Paxton has legitimate ace upside. Moreover, Paxton is one of only six pitchers in the last decade to log at least 150 innings as a lefty and strike out 30% or more of the batters he faced. Paxton, in addition to missing bats, limits walks, allowing only 7% (2 per 9 innings pitched) of the batters he’s faced in his career to take a free bag. Couple that with a career 25.7% (10+ per 9 innings) strikeout rate, and you’ve got yourself a pitcher who can be a real difference-maker atop the Yankee rotation.

Again, it will be fascinating to see how these trends play out in 2019, especially if the Yanks and Paxton tinker with his approach. In any event, Paxton is one of baseball’s elite talents when it comes to making batters miss, and it’s worth paying close attention to in 2019 – especially if he mixes in more offspeed stuff.

Fly Ball Percentage

Finally, Paxton has historically limited home runs, allowing less than one per 9 in his career. (When you look at it this way, Paxton makes everyone swing and miss, limits walks, and never gives up home runs. How is he not a bigger story?) He did, of course, call Safeco Field T-Mobile Park home for his career until now, and Seattle is a known pitcher-friendly park. Yankee Stadium is not that.

Derek wrote an insightful piece exploring Paxton’s home run spike in 2018 (it climbed to 1.29 per 9) that you should read, but I wanted to pull out a few of the more interesting bits: turns out Paxton gave up a lot more fly balls (41%) than he did in 2017 (32.7%), largely a function of elevating his fastball. That explains at least some of the increase in homers, but it’s also possible that 2017, where he was unhittable, was a fluke. Time will tell, as they say.

I think it’s fair to expect Paxton to surrender more home runs in New York than he did in Seattle overall, but there are ways to mitigate even the Yankee Stadium impact: Paxton can continue to miss bats and keep the ball on the ground. It’s also worth noting that if the Yankees turn him away from his fastball, that might mean reduced elevation and fewer home runs.

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I have an extremely good feeling about the 2019 Yankees, and James Paxton is a big reason why. We always hear that the Yankees “need another pitcher,” even though that’s often not true, but the addition of Paxton is probably the Yankees most exciting starting pitching acquisition in some time. There is a lot to watch this year, especially related to Paxton’s fastball usage and how that impacts some of the key areas that have made him so effective. If he lives up to expectations or improves – and, if he’s healthy, I see no reason why he won’t remain one of the best in the game – James Paxton will play a big role in what has the potential to be a very big year in the Bronx.

Someone Needs to Sign Craig Kimbrel. Why Not the Yankees?

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Added Benefit: Shaving That Beard (Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports)

The Yankees will open their season in five days against the Baltimore Orioles in the Bronx. In a normal offseason, there would be no more prize free agents still available, but this is not one of those offseasons. Instead, Craig Kimbrel remains without a home, less than a week before camp breaks for the regular season, and until extremely recently, there has been almost zero indication that even a single team is interested in signing him. That should change – and it should be the Yankees that finally do.

Let me be clear about something up front: I am not under any illusion that this is plausible or even realistic. I am aware that signing Kimbrel would require paying him an annual salary of millions of dollars. I am aware of the luxury tax, and where the Yankees’ payroll currently sits. I am aware that those factors have kept Kimbrel off the Yanks’ radar for almost six months. But I am also aware that there is a convincing case to be made that the Yankees should sign Craig Kimbrel. Let’s walk through it.

He is Extremely, Extremely Good

Baseball writers were once famous for arguing that [Insert One-Hit Wonder Reliever Here] was the “Next Mariano” during Rivera’s long career, to the point that it became somewhat of a running joke among fans. That was for good reason – there was and will always be only one Mariano, and most of the anointed relievers returned to ignominy shortly thereafter. Not Craig Kimbrel, though.

Kimbrel’s stats through 532.2 career innings are simply breathtaking. He’s fanned 14.6 batters per 19 innings pitched, which amounts to 41.6% of the batters he’s ever faced when considered another way. His 1.91 ERA adjusts to a ridiculous 47 ERA- and is supported by a 1.96 FIP. He’s stranded over 84% of inherited runners on base. He’s been worth over 20 bWAR and recorded 333 saves in 367 chances. That’s 90%. He’s done all this over 9 years, a true rarity among elite relief pitchers not named Mo.

That remained true last year, despite his “advanced” age of 31, too. In 62.1 innings with Boston, Kimbrel posted a 2.74 ERA and struck out nearly 40 percent of the batters he faced. His critics will tell you that he walked too many batters (12%) and that he always has; they are right but miss the forest for the trees here. It’s hardly a stretch to say that he’s the 2nd best reliever in modern history, if not all-time, behind Mariano. He’d make any bullpen better – even the already-dominant one in New York.

Bullpen Uncertainty

This brings us to the next point: even though the Yankees should have one of the best bullpens in league history in 2019, the reality is that we just don’t know what will happen. Just look at last year, when the same was true. The Yankees still needed to add Zack Britton at the deadline due to a slate of unexpected midsummer injuries. Already, the Yanks are without Dellin Betances because of injury, and while that’s expected to be a brief IL stint, you can never be too sure.

Adding Kimbrel would help bolster the bullpen even more, making it nearly impossible for the Yanks to be without at least one dominant back-end arm in the bullpen. In the best case scenario where Betances gets healthy immediately and everyone else remains so, then the Yankees simply have an embarrassment of riches in the ‘pen. That would be okay with me too.

Free Agent Outlook

This spring has seen an unprecedented number of elite players sign extensions, with players electing to take guaranteed money now rather than risk another weak free agent class. Players already under contract but with opt-outs, like Aroldis Chapman, are likely not to utilize them – even if they remain effective.

In other words, that means that fewer and fewer elite players will see the market in the coming years. This same argument applied – but more aptly, it must be said – to Manny Machado and Bryce Harper as well, but it’s somehow even more apparent now than it was a few weeks ago. The Yankees are in a window of contention, and they should not waste it by not signing the very best available players. Kimbrel is one of those.

Cost Certainty Going Forward

The Yankees have smartly locked up both Aaron Hicks and Luis Severino and are likely to pursue similar extensions for players like Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez as they approach their money-making arbitration years. Given the current state of extensions – where players are frequently signing contracts for less than they’d expect in arbitration, let alone the open market – it is likely that any extension for those players will be team-friendly.

Beyond that, the Yanks only have $51.26 million locked up for 2022 per Cot’s Contracts. That’s not a lot of long-term money, with the only big contract being Stanton’s. The Yanks just don’t have much long-term money tied up, and with fewer big-ticket free agents on the horizon and teams holding all of the negotiation leverage in extension talks, it’s likely to stay that way. Signing Kimbrel wouldn’t much compromise that future flexibility and would have the added benefit of improving the team now.

It Would Deal a Blow to Boston

Kimbrel, of course, has spent the last three seasons with the Boston Red Sox. Boston doesn’t seem all that motivated to sign him right now, but their bullpen will likely be the one weakness on their team. That means that they may swoop in at the eleventh hour and make a compelling offer or that they’re hoping for his price to drop to where they’re comfortable – an outcome which does grow more likely each day he goes unsigned.

Stealing away Kimbrel would prevent that from happening, taking away the one constant from the Sox bullpen from last year and make their bullpen a true weak spot heading into 2019. In a division race that figures to be extremely close, it always makes sense to weaken your rival if you can.

The Yanks Haven’t Won the ALE Since 2012

The Yankees haven’t won the AL East since the 2012 season seven years ago. Their three postseason appearances since (2015, 2017 and 2018) all began with the Wild Card Game being played in the Bronx. They’re 2-1 in those games, and the 2017 game, in particular, is a classic, but I think everyone would prefer a guaranteed berth in the ALDS rather than playing another do-or-die matchup to begin the playoffs. That’s especially true amid a true championship window: You don’t want to leave anything to chance.

Even as two-thirds of teams around the league try to lose and most divisions are completely uncompetitive, the Yanks have the misfortune of sharing theirs with Boston, who, in case you forgot, won 108 games and the World Series last year. The AL East is Boston’s right now, and the Yankees should stop at nothing to take it back – even if that means stealing Boston’s closer.

*****

Again, if I was being generous, I’d give this a 0.01% chance of being possible. But that’s not really the point here. Craig Kimbrel is one of the very best relievers in the history of baseball and he is unsigned less than a week from Opening Day. Fans and analysts of every team in the league could do a similar exercise for why their preferred team should sign him, and eventually, someone will (right now it looks like the Braves or Brewers). Why shouldn’t it be the Yankees?

Giancarlo Stanton, Expectations, and the Second Year in Pinstripes [2019 Season Preview]

by

(Presswire)

Expectations were sky-high in the Bronx for the newest Yankee superstar, the high-powered Giancarlo Stanton, in 2018. The Yanks had quickly developed a formidable core of young homegrown talent with Luis Severino, Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge and stormed their way to Game 7 of the ALCS the year prior. Excitement was in the air – and then the Yanks traded Starlin Castro for Stanton, who had just hit 59 home runs en route to the NL MVP. The Yankees were back; the lovable group of underdogs that surprised the league in 2017 was no more.

Those expectations inevitably meant some letdown, and sure enough, Giancarlo was welcomed to the Bronx in a stereotypical Bronx way: showered with boos, raging WFAN callers and semi-regular trade speculation. It was a true superstar’s welcome to pinstripes, one with which former big-name acquisitions like Jason Giambi, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira could empathize.

But with two notable exceptions (more on those shortly), Stanton did what Stanton does: hit the ball hard and far. His second year with New York figures to be a bit smoother for a number of reasons – personal adjustment, logistics, etc. are settled now – but let’s quickly dive into his 2018 before looking ahead.

A Disappointing Debut?

Giancarlo’s 2018 is considered disappointing by many fans and analysts, and it’s worth exploring that perception in a bit greater detail, as it will inform our expectations of what he can (and should) do going forward. Here’s his 2018 line compared to his career line:

  • 2018: .266/.343/.509 (127 wRC+), .360 wOBA, 9.9 BB%, 29.9 K%, .243 ISO and .333 BABIP
  • Career: .268/.358/.548 (142 wRC+), .381 wOBA, 11.5 BB%, 28.0 K%, .301 ISO and .298 BABIP

It’s worth noting that Stanton’s counting stats (38 homers and 100 RBI) and durability (158 games played) were exceptional. That accounted to 4.2 fWAR for the slugger, who was, despite the perception, one of the Yanks’ best players: only Aaron Judge (5.0), Aaron Hicks (4.9) and Didi Gregorius (4.6) were more productive offensively by fWAR. Crucially, all three missed significant time – meaning that Stanton was an indispensable force, and that without him, some of those August lineups would have looked mighty ugly.

His success was buoyed by the two-thirds of the season in which Stanton was a legitimate monster. Take a look at this:

  • May 1 to August 18th: 301/.363/.581 (150 wRC+) with 27 home runs in 94 games
  • Everything else: .194/.292/.346 (75 wRC+) in 55 games

That top number is the type of production that wins MVPs – and it was long enough that it should serve as proof that Stanton can “handle New York.” But that’s not to say that Stanton wasn’t simultaneously disappointing despite these successes. Two brutal slumps early and late in the season that totaled the remaining third of the season ruined an otherwise outstanding year during the two most visible stretches of the season. That’s why his critics are so loud.

Taken in the aggregate, it’s clear that Stanton underperformed expectations. He got on base less than normal – he was merely above average when usually excellent – and his isolated power was significantly below his career norm, a result of hammering the ball into the ground. He struck out in nearly a third of his at-bats (inevitably including some notable moments), which, although this was typical of him, managed to feel infuriating.

Fans must remember just how good Giancarlo is even with those caveats, though. Normal players don’t hit 40 home runs, drive in 100 runs, play every day but three and manage to be a true middle-of-the-order force on a 100-win juggernaut when they post a 75 wRC+ over a third of a season. That speaks to his natural talent and just how dominant he is as a player when things are clicking. He was worth 4 wins despite his two slumps – and a player for whom that’s the floor is a boon to every team.

Reducing His Grounders

The Yankees have championship aspirations, and to realize those dreams, they’ll need superstar production from Giancarlo across all of 2019. Or, at the very least, his slumps can’t be as severe or protracted in year two. That would go a long way toward his “rebound” and would likely rehabilitate him in the eyes of some of his sharpest critics. How can he accomplish that?

One of the more frustrating parts of Stanton’s 2018 was a sharp uptick in ground balls over his career average. 45% of balls Stanton hit last year were on the ground, far higher than his 42% norm and his highest since 2011 (though, to be fair, he did come close in 2017). His fly ball percentage dropped in concert, with only 36% of his balls hit in the air compared to his 39% career line.

That’s far too many balls on the ground for a player with Giancarlo’s power, let alone considering the fact that balls in the air at Yankee Stadium tend to fly out of the yard even for lesser talents. That means a lot of hard-hit balls gone to waste – and Stanton hit the ball extremely, extremely hard in 2018. Take a look at his batted ball rankings among the 96 other MLBers with 400 or more batted ball events (BBE) last year, per Statcast/Baseball Savant:

  • Barrels per plate appearance: 8.9% (5th)
  • Barrels per BBE: 15.1% (3rd)
  • Balls hit 95 mph or harder: 211 (9th)
  • Percentage of BBE hit 95 mph or harder: 50.7% (5th)
  • Average exit velocity: 93.7 mph (2nd, with the hardest hit individual BBE of any player in baseball at 121.7 mph)

Few players hit the ball harder. That’s right in line with who he is as a hitter, and we can all expect to see more of the same in 2019. Even in 2018, with more grounders and less fly balls, his line drive percentage stayed constant at 16%. It’s the uptick in grounders that will reduce his power and extra-base hits, not his actual ability to hit the ball hard.

The good news here is that his GB/FB rates were outliers last year, not a return to normal. That suggests that we can expect those numbers to increase – maybe pitchers attacked him differently, maybe he was pressing, maybe he made an ill-advised mechanical change, etc. – and stabilize around his career averages. That should mean more home runs and a higher batting average, as grounders are generally converted into outs – even if Stanton became an unlikely infield single threat. Improving on this figure would likely significantly help Giancarlo find more consistency next year.

A Potential Path to Replicating 2017

There were two other categories in which Giancarlo struggled last year compared to 2017: he struck out more and walked less. The big difference here compared to the above is that 2018 marked a return to normal. It was 2017 that was the outlier.

It’s important to say this: Stanton strikes out a lot. He always has and he always will. He struck out 23% of the time in 2017 in what was the lowest mark of his career by a considerable margin. He made a much-publicized mid-season change to his stance at the plate, the idea of which was to cut down on strikeouts and increase his power. It worked in the short-term but 2018 saw his strikeout rate return to normal, as he fanned 29% of the time (his career average is 28%).

On its own, that would be fine. Stanton was worth 5.0 fWAR in 2012 and 6.8 fWAR in 2014 when he struck out 28 and 26 percent of the time, respectively. But it’s more of a concern when coupled with a declining walk rate, and that’s exactly what happened in 2018: his 9.9% walk rate was much lower than the 12% he posted in 2017 and was his lowest since that 2012 season.

That suggests that Stanton was chasing more pitches out of the zone last year, and the numbers bear that out, but again in a return to career norms rather than an outlier. His 2018 chase rate was just under 31%, which is right in line with his career average of 30.6% – it was 2017 (27.9%) that was the true outlier. Perhaps 2017 isn’t repeatable (it turns out that hitting 59 homers isn’t so easy!) but it’s worth noting that Stanton did swing more overall last year than normal. He swung at 45% of pitches in 2018. That’s in line with his career data but a raw figure he has only exceeded three times in nine seasons.

Hopefully, a year with the Yankees coaching and a season’s experience facing American League pitching means that he will have better recognition in 2019 – for what it’s worth, he’s flatly not interested in discussing his stance – and unleash the Stanton the National League saw in 2017. It would be great to see his walk rate return to normal, and I think there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that this figure will rebound because Stanton generally walks more than he did last year.

The strikeout rate is more likely to remain high moving forward because that’s just who he is as a hitter – but it’s worth remembering that he has found considerable success at the plate as a big leaguer regardless.

What to Expect

There will likely be little change in the way Giancarlo is used in 2019. He’ll remain a primary DH who gets some time in the outfield (although I’d be curious to hear why the Yanks seem to think he can’t play the outfield regularly given that he has spent his career as an outfielder in the National League). He’ll hit in the middle of the order and he’ll hit dozens of home runs and hundreds of balls really hard. That’s just who he is and who he’ll always be. Here are the projections, for whatever they’re worth:

  • ZiPS: .255/.344/.557 (138 wRC+)
  • Steamer: .267/.354/.569 (145 wRC+)
  • PECOTA: .258/.354/.512 (134 DRC+)

Each of those has Stanton outperforming his 2018 debut in the Bronx, and I think that’s a fair assessment. Stanton was very, very good in his first season as a Yankee – and that was with two career outliers in his GB% and reduced BB%. A reset to normal there alone should improve his production, and that’s without considering the external factors that could lead to a more comfortable approach, like being settled in on the team and in New York, familiarity with pitchers, etc.

The Yankees will be an excellent team this year, and Giancarlo Stanton is going to play a major role in that success. Even though he was very good in 2018, Giancarlo seems a safe bet to return to “form” and remind fans why it was that he was the National League MVP just two years ago.