River Avenue Blues

The hidden glory of Greg Golson

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One shining moment. (Getty Images)

Greg Golson is known to Yankee fans for one incredible throw in 2010. However, despite the greatness of that moment, there was more to his baseball story.

‘Nothing he can’t do’

Golson was drafted 21st overall in the first round of the 2004 MLB Draft by the Phillies. A five-tool prospect, Golson describes himself as not raw but needing development. The Texas high schooler had blazing speed and a cannon of an arm. His bat and power were expected to come along with Baseball America saying “there’s really nothing he can’t do” in their scouting report.

“I had this style of play that was kind of reckless abandon, all out; I think that’s what the Phillies liked about me,” Golson told River Avenue Blues. “But I think I needed to stop thinking so much at the plate.”

Golson slowly worked his way up through the Phillies’ system, hitting as many as 13 home runs in a season and stealing up to 30 bases. He even got a cup of coffee and six at-bats in September for the 2008 World Series champions. However, he couldn’t put it all together before he was traded to Texas after the season. The outfielder was designated for assignment by the Rangers after 2009 and landed with the Yankees in a trade.

Though he would make the Show with the Yankees as well, he never got the opportunity to be a regular, partially due to the misfortune of playing for three teams in the midst of postseason windows.

“I think that’s more, I wouldn’t say to blame, but that’s more of the cause of me not getting an opportunity to play every day,” Golson said. “There was an emphasis on winning once I got up and there was no room for a rookie to figure out his way.”

Wearing Pinstripes

Golson received his first call-up to the Yankees on May 4, playing in one game before getting optioned three days later. He hadn’t been hitting all that well in Triple-A to that point, but Alfredo Aceves hit the shelf with a bulging disk on May 12, getting Golson right back up the to the Majors.

“I’m at my rental property in Scranton and I get a call from my manager saying, ‘Hey, you’re going to the big leagues,'” Golson recalled. “At the time, I was hitting .210, I hadn’t made the adjustment at the plate, so I’m like, “What!? I’m going where? This is a joke, right?”

Though it was 1 a.m. right after a game, Golson quickly got packed with excitement and boarded a plane to Detroit, meeting the Yankees before a game with the Tigers. He was 0-for-7 in his MLB career before the matchup and entered as a defensive replacement for Marcus Thames. In the ninth inning, he got the plate and smacked a single for his first career hit.

Golson remembers getting the clubhouse after the hit, “I wouldn’t say I was walking, I was floating.” His favorite player growing up was Derek Jeter, who came up to him.

“Jeter is like, ‘That’s your first hit, man? We need to celebrate.’ I’m like, ‘Nah, I need to get some sleep.'”

Most people wouldn’t turn down an opportunity to celebrate with Jeter, his childhood hero, to catch some z’s. Instead, Golson recalls Jeter taking the rookie out to eat in Boston, “Not many people get to play with their childhood hero and then they take you out.”

Golson would get into four more games with his first Major League start before getting optioned down on May 17. He’d spend the summer in Scranton and he found his hitting stroke in the process with a solid .263/.313/.414 line despite a slow start.

“Looking back, that was probably the best time of my life. I was just on cloud nine,” he said. “You don’t need Advil, you don’t need any anti-inflammatories. You’re ready to go. Being around so many potential and future Hall of Famers, I learned a lot.”

With expanded rosters, the Bombers called up Golson in September and utilized him almost exclusively as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement. Nick Swisher was slowed by injuries and Brett Gardner also missed some time, creating an opening for Golson.

He went 0-for-2 in stealing bases during the 2010 season, but his defense did all the talking. With the combination of fabulous speed and a rocket arm, he was the perfect man to come in for Swisher, Austin Kearns or whomever manned the corner opposite Gardner.

“A lot of times I was hoping for Nick Swisher or Jorge Posada would get a single or a walk, so I could get into the game. I would never hope [the opponent] would tie it up, but I would just love to get an at-bat.”

Golson wanted the opportunity to show off his swing, spending plenty of time in the cages while in the Majors. Despite his best efforts, it would be a game in which he didn’t bat that gets remembered years later.

The Throw

The Yankees were fighting with the Rays for the AL East crown in 2010 and had a series in Tampa Bay in mid-September with a half-game lead going into it. New York didn’t have pressure to win the division with the wild card in hand. Furthermore, a wild card berth meant facing the Twins instead of the upstart Rangers in the ALDS.

Regardless, the Pinstripers lost Game 1 on a Reid Brignac walk-off homer. Game 2 on Sept. 14 was a wild affair with the Yankees see-sawing from up 6-0 in the top of the 5th inning to down 7-6 after the bottom half, before knotting the game at seven in the sixth.

It stayed that way into extra innings, though Golson entered in the ninth after Juan Miranda pinch hit for right fielder Colin Curtis, who was filling in for Swisher. Despite a desire to start, Golson was primed for filling-in after coming up with a National League team, thereby dealing with pitchers hitting and double switches.

It was just a few days before Golson’s birthday and his brother, who was stationed in Jacksonville, came down to watch him play at the Trop. Therefore, the 25-year-old outfielder was already loose simply with family in town and a Yankees uniform on his back. He came into the series knowing playing time was likely thanks to a lefty-laden Rays staff.

Though he’d done the proper cage work in game, he hadn’t gotten a chance to fully stretch out his arm. That’s where Gardner helped out.

“When I got in, Gardner was in left and he was saying, “Do you need to throw?” because I was throwing with Granderson in center,” Golson recalled. “… We backed up almost foul pole to foul pole and we were just long tossing so I could get my arm loose. It ended up paying off because it was pretty much the same distance that I ended up throwing to third to A-Rod.”

In the top of the 10th, Posada hit a solo home run to put the Yankees up, 8-7. That meant Mariano Rivera would have the chance to close things out in the 10th.

An inauspicious start met Mo with Carl Crawford singling through the right side.

“Once he got on base, I was like, “OK, I’m going to throw him out at home,”” Golson said. “That was the thought process because I always try to think of the toughest play before the play starts so I can have it in my mind in case it happens.”

Evan Longoria, ever the Rivera killer, flew out to deep center for the first out, though Crawford didn’t tag up. Crawford then stole second, though Golson remembers him being out before the ball came out of Jeter’s glove.

Matt Joyce stood at the plate and lifted a fly ball down the line to right, an easy catch for Golson but seemingly far enough to advance Crawford to third. This was, of course, prime Crawford, who stole 46 bags in 2010, down just five steals from a career-best 51 in 2009.

“When the ball went up, I know the first thing I thought was, ‘Just catch it. Don’t worry about getting behind it,'” Golson recalled. “It was going in and out of vision because of the roof.

Ah yes, the Tropicana roof. That explains why Golson ended up flat-footed after the catch instead of getting behind the ball. At the time, he was more worried about recording the first out and not letting the ball get away, thus making him the “butt of a lot of jokes.”

Still, flatfooted or behind the ball, Golson was ready when Crawford tagged up. He nailed the Rays’ speedster on a low line-drive of a throw and a good pick and tag by Alex Rodriguez.

Funny enough, Golson aimed his throw at Jeter, the cutoff man, and simply wanted the shortstop to snag it. Jeter realized there was a play at third and leaned out of the way.

“All I remember is getting high fives after that. I don’t remember anything after the moment but getting high-fives and pointing at A-Rod, saying, “Nice pick.”

Moving Forward and Looking Back

While that was Golson’s shining moment in pinstripes, he did make the Yankees’ postseason roster that fall. He made a shoestring grab to finish off another Rivera save in Game 1 of the ALDS, his only putout and opportunity in three postseason appearances.

The Yankees were eliminated by Golson’s old team, Texas, near where the Austin native grew up. After being designated for assignment and starting 2010 out with struggles at the plate, Golson didn’t expect the ride of the year to end. “Being a part of the postseason roster and playing in front of my family in my home state, on the Yankees.”

He would also briefly play for the 2011 Yankees, finishing with 35 plate appearances over the two seasons with eight hits, two RBI and a .235/.257/.294 batting line.

Golson bounced around between Double-A and Triple-A for the White Sox and Braves in 2012-13 before turning to independent league baseball. As for why he never made it back to The Show, Golson now sees some of what the younger version of himself couldn’t at the time and that he was too willingly pliable to coaches.

“I played with nine different organizations and every single one of them, as soon as I got there, it was, ‘This is what we’re going to do,’ and I had to figure out what worked for me.”

Golson began to figure out more about his game once he got out of affiliated ball, playing in Mexico, Venezuela and the Dominican Republic as well as stateside. Once there, he lost concern for how his game looked and his pedigree as a former first rounder and big leaguer.

“A lot of guys say it, but I really do wish I knew then what I know now.”

The 33-year-old is now finishing up a degree in health and wellness this August. When he first began taking classes online, he made it his goal to play until he got the degree and he’s been in the Atlantic and Mexican Leagues in recent seasons before joining the Texas AirHogs of the American Association last year. He’s a free agent for now, living in Denver and passing some baseball lessons on as an instructor.

Still, he can sometimes struggle to look back on his playing days. As a right-handed player for platoon purposes and coming through the systems of competitive teams, Golson didn’t get the chance he might have had on a rebuilding roster.

Think about it. He got into 40 MLB games and hat 42 plate appearances, something most of us have or will never experience, but it was just that, 40 games, never more than a month at a time. Therefore, Golson has gratitude for being able to live out his dream and play for the Yankees, yet he also wanted more.

“Being on the Yankees comes with that look [from people] of, “Why? Why was he on the Yankees?” That throw is something that people go and look up and they’re always like, “I saw your throw. That was awesome.”

“It’s really cool and it’s the defining moment of my career, so I hear about it a lot and I’m grateful that it happened. Again, I’m not going to say it was an albatross, but I just wish I could have done more with my career so there was more to give people, like I can hit, too.”

Mailbag: Cole, Goodrum, Frazier, Loaisiga, Gallo, Smoak, Davis

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There are nine questions in this week’s mailbag. Good mailbag, I think. As always, the mailbag email address is RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com. Also, I appreciate all the thank yous and well wishes in the inbox. It would take forever to reply to them all, but I did read every single one. Thank you.

Cole. (Ron Jenkins/Getty)

Stan asks: Hi Mike, is Gerrit Cole the only realistic option for the Yankees to acquire in the next year or two for frontline pitching? If they’re serious about it, they’ll likely have to break the bank a bit. Given the current front office emphasis on value versus paying whatever it takes, how likely do you think the Yankees will end up being among the highest bidders? Would you break the bank for Cole? I say yes if it only takes money and slight hits to draft picks and international bonus money.

Looking over the 2019-20 free agent class and the 2020-21 free agent class, yes, Gerrit Cole is the best starting pitcher set to hit the market in the near future. It’s Cole this offseason and Trevor Bauer next offseason, and that’s it for aces. Depending how you feel about guys like Madison Bumgarner, Robbie Ray, Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, and Zack Wheeler, it is entirely possible the third best free agent starter the next two offseasons will be Masahiro Tanaka.

Assuming his 2019 is similar to his 2018, I think Cole has a good chance at Max Scherzer’s contract (seven years, $210M) this winter. Well, in a “normal” free agent market he would. At the very least, Cole should exceed Patrick Corbin’s contract (six years, $140M). He’s a Scott Boras client, he’ll hit the market at the same age, he’s been better leading up to free agency, he did it in the American League, and he hasn’t had Tommy John surgery.

The Yankees drafted Cole back in the day and they tried to trade for him last winter, so obviously he has fans in the organization. The question is not whether they should sign him (of course they should), but whether they will pony up the money to sign him. They didn’t for Manny Machado or Bryce Harper and those dudes were smarter and safer investments as prime-aged position players. Pitchers break, even the great ones. You need them, but they break.

My quick math says $34.5M comes off the books after the season and that’s without re-signing Didi Gregorius and Dellin Betances. A big chunk of that is going to Gary Sanchez’s and especially Aaron Judge’s arbitration raises. So, to sign Cole, the Yankees will have to either jump over the third luxury tax or dump salary. I’m not sure how realistic either of those things are. Maybe they’ll suck it up and deal with a big luxury tax bill in 2020 until Tanaka and Jacoby Ellsbury coming off the books after the season.

Robert asks: Any chance the Tigers would sell off utility man Niko Goodrum? What would it take.

I’m sure the Tigers would trade away pretty much anyone on the roster at this point. Matt Boyd, Jeimer Candelario, and Christin Stewart are their only players who look like long-term keepers, and they’re complementary types rather than cornerstones they can build around. (Nick Castellanos is a “build around” type but he will be a free agent after the season, so he doesn’t really count.)

Goodrum is a nice little player. The Tigers signed him as a minor league free agent last offseason and he hit .245/.315/.432 (103 wRC+) with 16 homers while playing every position other than pitcher and catcher. He went into yesterday’s game hitting .289/.413/.526 (160 wRC+), though I wouldn’t expect that to last all year. A switch-hitting super utility guy with a league average bat is a nifty little player. He’d help the Yankees and a lot of teams.

The Tigers control Goodrum through 2023 and he turned only 27 in February, so he’s someone they could keep and reasonably expect to be part of their next contending team. He’s a good “tenth man,” so to speak. Would the Tigers take Chance Adams for Goodrum? That feels light. What about Adams and Domingo Acevedo, two upper level young pitchers? That still feels light. Hard to know what it would take to get him, but yeah, Goodrum would be a worthwhile pickup.

Douglas asks: Once the Blue Jays deem Vlad Guerrero Jr. ready (aka once they’ve gained the extra season of control), if Andujar isn’t healthy or seeming to be close to healthy, do you think we could see a return of Brandon Drury? He’s seems to be the “guy who stands in front of the big time prospect fans really wants to see” the past 2 seasons.

That would be something else. Trade for Drury with the expectation that he’ll become the third baseman of the future, watch him get Wally Pipped by the real third baseman of the future, trade him for pitching, then reacquire him because the third baseman of the future got hurt. Drury hasn’t hit at all this year — he went into last night’s game hitting .162/.200/.233 (13 wRC+) — but it’s early, I think he’s better than that. I mean, he can’t be worse. I feel like this a “been there, done that” situation. The Yankees tried it, it didn’t really work out, so they moved on. Even with Miguel Andujar hurt, I think the Yankees can get a capable replacement in a salary dump (Todd Frazier? Starlin Castro?) rather than trading a young player(s) for Drury. I mean, yeah, Drury would fit right now, but meh.

Brian asks: Something I’ve noticed now that Frazier has come up is that his stance is a lot more open than it used to be. I looked at a few clips from 2017 and 2018 (not much 2018 unfortunately) and it seemed to have opened up a bit this year. Thoughts?

Clint Frazier has indeed opened up his stance a bit this season. In fact, he’s changed his stance quite a bit each of the last two years. We don’t have much video to look through given his sporadic playing time, so here is the best side-by-side(-by-side) comparison I could build with similar camera angles:

Frazier went from way open in 2017 to mostly closed in 2018 to open again in 2019. Back in Spring Training, Frazier said he worked with hitting coach Marcus Thames on several things because he didn’t feel right mechanically. One of those things was a wider stance. Here’s more from Pete Caldera:

“I have a hard time thinking right field, because I feel like that slows me down too much,’’ said Frazier, who is “messing around with a few different timing mechanisms.’’

…

We’re just trying to get him to stay more balanced, stay more under control,’’ hitting coach Marcus Thames said before the game. “He’s got plenty of talent.’’

Frazier looks more confident and more dangerous at the plate right now than he has at any point in his brief big league career. He’s in control of his at-bats and even his outs have been hit hard lately. How much can be attributed to the open stance? Hard to say. It could be a function of being healthy. Or just a talented young player figuring it out. It’s likely a combination of many things, and whatever it is, I hope it continues. Clint’s a lot of fun when he’s locked in.

Layonel asks: How long until Johnny Lasagna is a very good longman? Given his injury history and how he can’t seem to pitch more than 4 innings per outing.

I think Jonathan Loaisiga fits best as a multi-inning reliever right now. Turn him into the 2019 version of 2017 Chad Green. Let him air it out and go the lineup one time and one time only. It’s a small sample, obviously, but Loaisiga has held hitters to a .167/.241/.271 (32 OPS+) line the first time through the lineup and .308/.417/.487 (133 OPS+) thereafter. I get that the Yankees want to develop him as a starter. It would be amazing if he could start long-term. His history suggests he can not stay healthy in that role though, and Loaisiga could really help the win-now Yankees as a multi-inning reliever. I don’t mean a mop-up guy either. He has the stuff and guts to get important outs. I’d love to see it. Instead, it appears the Yankees will continue working Loaisiga as a starter.

Jerry asks: Despite the small sample size, what is your take on the Red Sox pitching staff? I know it is early but Rodriguez looks awful, Eovaldi is morphing back into the Yankee version of him, Porcello is hittable and Sale/Price still have injury concerns.

I think it’s a combination of things. For starters, there’s likely some World Series hangover effect in play, and by that I mean these guys pitched a ton last year and had a deep postseason run, and thus a shorter than usual offseason to recover. Secondly, the Red Sox might’ve taken it a little too easy on their starters in Spring Training. They brought them along very slowly and they didn’t start pitching in games until mid-March. Their starters all seem to be playing catch up. Maybe they were brought along too slowly in Spring Training.

Chris Sale is the one I worry about most long-term because he hasn’t looked right since before his shoulder injury last year. His velocity was down late last season and in the postseason, and everything was a grind. That is still the case now. Sale looks like he did after the injury last year. That’s worrisome. Nathan Eovaldi turning back into the guy he’s been his entire career aside from three or four months last year is not the most surprising thing in the world. Eduardo Rodriguez has always been a bit of an enigma. I’m worried about Sale because he doesn’t look healthy. Give everyone else time and they’ll probably shake off the World Series hangover/overly protective Spring Training.

Trevor asks: Isn’t Joey Gallo the perfect acquisition target for this team? Under team control for 3 more years, left handed power hitter, and he can play LF, 1B and 3B. Get the bat now and depending on who and when guys come back he has enough flexibility to fit in the rest of the year and years to come.

Hot Take: I think Joey Gallo is the worst possible target for the Yankees. They do not need another extreme strikeout hitter. Two is enough, and, really, the only reason the Yankees tolerate two is because Aaron Judge is a top ten player in the world and Giancarlo Stanton is the best power hitter of his generation. Adding another 30% strikeout rate guy to the lineup is just too much. Gallo doesn’t want to play third base, so we’re talking about a first base/left field guy, and I’m not inclined to give up prospects to get someone like that, especially in this free agent market. I love dingers and Gallo hits glorious dingers, but the Yankees can do better.

Smoak. (Steve Russell/Getty)

Thomas asks: When are the Yankees going to pull the plug on Bird. Started the year taking fastballs down the middle of the plate for strikes and constantly getting behind in the count. Now he’s swinging at them but swinging through 92-94 mph fastballs right down the pipe early in the count when that’s what you should be looking for. Not sold on Voit yet. What about Justin Smoak? He can be had.

Greg Bird had a good game to wrap up the Astros series (1-for-2 with two walks), though he is still hitting .214/.353/.321 (95 wRC+) overall. He is drawing lots of walks (17.6%) and not doing much else. Bird’s not even hitting the ball hard. His 86.2 mph average exit velocity and 33.3% hard-hit rate are well below the league averages (89.1 mph and 40.2%). Here are the exit velocities on Bird’s last eight balls in play, working backwards: 86.4, 84.3, 90.2, 57.8, 70.4, 93.7, 73.6, 83.0. Dude. Bird has a .311 wOBA and .323 xwOBA. This ain’t bad luck. It’s bad hitting.

I tweeted about Smoak last week and he’s a definite fit. The Yankees could plug him in at first base and send Bird to Triple-A, where he would’ve started the year had Aaron Hicks not gotten hurt. Smoak has started slow this year (76 wRC+ going into last night’s game), but he hit .270/.355/.529 (133 wRC+) with 38 homers two years ago and .242/.350/.457 (121 wRC+) with 25 homers last year. Even if he slips again to, say, a 115 wRC+ and 22 homers, that’s more than you can realistically expect from Bird at this point.

The Blue Jays are already in sell mode — they traded Kendrys Morales on Opening Day eve and Kevin Pillar last week — and the J.A. Happ trade shows these teams will do business with each other. I’m sure Toronto would move Smoak right now. He’s making $6M this year and will be a free agent after the season, so he’s not tying up long-term payroll either. It fits. Send them a Nick Nelson/Garrett Whitlock type*, send Bird to Triple-A, and put Smoak at first base.

* If the Blue Jays think they can do better, fine, more power to ’em. Which contenders are looking for first base or DH help though? Maybe the Angels? Toronto’s options might be trade Smoak to the Yankees, hope some contender’s first baseman gets hurt, or keep him and possibly lose him for nothing as a free agent after the season. Hell, Nelson or Whitlock might be an overpay.

John asks: Baltimore’s Chris Davis is 0-for-28 this season (through Tuesday), 0-for-49 since his last hit on 9/14/18, 1-for-67 since 9/5/18, last RBI was 9/4/18, last home run was 8/24/18. His line drives this season have exit velocities of 95 mph. Chase Headley had an epic poor start three years ago and it wasn’t anything near this bad. Is Davis finished, or can he come back from this?

After going 0-for-3 with a walk yesterday, Davis is now hitless in his last 53 at-bats and 61 plate appearances, both MLB records. The guy has more money than I could ever possibly imagine and I feel bad for him. This is just brutal to watch. It’s sad. It really is. And it’s not like Davis is sitting around doing nothing. He works every day to snap out of it. (I’m not going to go back to find it, but the YES Network posted a Toyota Conversation thing the other day where some idiot called Davis a bad teammate for not trying to get better. Get outta here with that.)

The Orioles owe Davis roughly $92M through 2022. This isn’t washed up Alex Rodriguez with $27M and one year plus two months remaining on his contract, or even Troy Tulowitzki at two years and $38M. Davis is not even halfway through his seven-year, $161M contract. It looked like an ill-advised deal the day it was signed. I don’t think anyone saw it going this bad. Can he come back from this? Sure. He’s only 33, he’s a good athlete, and he’s working at it. That doesn’t make it any easier to watch. This has to be eating away at him. How could it not be?

DotF: Amburgey, Ford stay hot in Scranton’s walk-off win

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LHP Danny Coulombe will be shut down for about a week with a shoulder issue, reports Conor Foley. Coulombe left his last outing with the trainer and an MRI came back clean, so he’ll rest a bit.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (9-8 win over Buffalo in ten innings, walk-off style)

  • LF Trey Amburgey: 2-6, 2 R, 1 3B, 2 K — he’s been crushing the ball, and he’s only here rather than Trenton because the Yankees needed Clint Frazier in the big leagues
  • 1B Mike Ford: 2-3, 1 R, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB — 13-for-29 (.448) with three doubles and four homers in seven games
  • PH Mandy Alvarez: 1-1, 1 RBI — had the walk-off single after they slowly blew an 8-1 lead
  • 2B Thairo Estrada: 1-4, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K — here’s video of the double, which was originally called a homer before being overturned on replay
  • DH-C Ryan Lavarnway: 0-3, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 K
  • C Kyle Higashioka: 1-2, 1 R, 2 RBI — exited the game for an unknown reason in the fourth inning, which forced the RailRiders to give up the DH and put Lavarnway behind the plate … manager Jay Bell told Conor Foley that Higashioka was removed from the game because the Yankees are calling him up, which is probably bad news for Gary Sanchez and his tight calf … the Yankees have another off-day Monday, so maybe they plan to limit Sanchez to DH this weekend and need a temporary backup catcher? … we’ll see, fingers crossed
  • RHP Chance Adams: 0-1, 1 K — this was his first professional at-bat and he didn’t take the bat off his shoulder … he had to hit because Lavarnway moved from DH to catcher
  • 3B Gosuke Katoh: 2-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 E (throwing) — two homers in six Triple-A games after hitting five homers in 118 Double-A games last year
  • RHP Chance Adams: 4.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 2/3 GB/FB — 62 of 94 pitches were strikes (66%) … only two starts, but things are going a lot like last year

[Read more…]

The Yankees have a Dellin Betances-sized hole in their bullpen

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Miss you Dellin. (Michael Reaves/Getty)

At some point today, likely this morning in Tampa, Dellin Betances was scheduled to throw a simulated game. It is his second time facing hitters since being shut down with shoulder inflammation on March 19th, and, if all went well, it is reasonable to think he could begin a minor league rehab stint shortly. “We feel like he is making progress,” Aaron Boone said earlier this week.

The bullpen without Betances has yet to live up to its Super Bullpen billing. Adam Ottavino has been excellent, and Luis Cessa as been quietly solid in low-leverage mop-up innings, otherwise the bullpen owns a collective 3.97 ERA (3.28 FIP) through 12 games. The group’s 24.6% strikeout rate is a good five or six (or more) percentage points below the expectation coming into the season.

Through 12 games, there is a Betances-sized hole in the Yankees bullpen. The Yankees feel short one high-leverage reliever, someone who can face the other team’s best hitters with the game on the line. Right now, Ottavino seems to be the only guy qualified to do that. Consider:

  • Zack Britton is laboring. More baserunners (12) than swings and misses (10) is impressively bad.
  • Chad Green has a 55.6% hard-hit rate and has struck out one of the last 19 batters he’s faced.
  • Aroldis Chapman is missing velocity and has been quite hittable in the early going.
  • Tommy Kahnle has regained some velocity but he’s not back to his 2017 form.
  • Ottavino is on pace to appear in 81 games and warm up in 14 others.

The starting pitchers haven’t helped matters and the Yankees definitely need those guys to start pitching more effectively and pitching more in general. The four non-Masahiro Tanaka starters are averaging 4.1 innings per start in the early going. That can’t continue. The relievers can’t pick up that many innings each game.

Anyway, getting Betances back would not help Britton throw strikes or Green miss barrels. It would lessen the team’s reliance on them, however, at least to some degree. Dellin reclaiming the eighth inning frees up Ottavino for higher leverage work earlier in the game, and remember, the Yankees just lost two games in Houston because seventh inning leads were blown with Not Ottavino on the mound.

There are two questions with Betances. One, when is he coming back? It’s impossible to say right now. Even if today’s simulated game went well — today’s an off-day, so we won’t get a Dellin update until tomorrow — returning for next week’s Red Sox series is unlikely. Could he be back for the start of the West Coast trip on April 22nd? That would seem to give him enough time for three minor league rehab appearances. Maybe four.

And two, how effective will Betances be once he returns? Sometimes shoulder inflammation is truly nothing and the guy comes back with no ill-effects. And sometimes it lingers all season and the pitcher is never quite right. Betances coming back as something less than the high-leverage monster he’s been throughout his career would be bad news for the Yankees. Real bad news given the state of some of the other relievers in the bullpen.

Knowing the Yankees, they’ll ease Betances into things once he returns. Two or three lower leverage spots just to get his feet wet before thrusting him into big situations. I have no problem with that. A healthy and effective Betances allows the Yankees to use Ottavino earlier in the game, and also shelter Britton and Green until they turn things around. Of course, they might’ve already turned things around by time Dellin returns, but I digress.

The Yankees lost ten games when leading after five innings last season. They’ve already lost three such games this year, and their relievers have taken four losses overall. Here are some bullpen win probability numbers through 12 games:

  • WPA: -0.79 (+7.83 last year)
  • Shutdowns: 10 (153 last year)
  • Meltdowns: 11 (72 last year)

(Shutdowns are relief appearances that increase win probability at least 6%. Meltdowns are the opposite. They’re relief appearances that decrease win probability at least 6%.)

The bullpen has not only not performed as expected thus far, it is actively hurting the Yankees. Betances is one man and he alone can not fix things. The Yankees need Britton and Green to right the ship as well, but a healthy Dellin would have helped these last 12 games, and there’s an obvious need for him going forward. Clearly, there is no such thing as too many good relievers. The sooner Betances comes back and is effective, the better the Yankees will be.

Yankeemetrics: Crash Landing in Houston (April 8-10)

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(Getty)

April 8: Bullpen Bummer
The Yankees road trip continued to Houston and the series began with a familiar story: another wasted another gem by Masahiro Tanaka as the much-hyped bullpen blew a late lead and instead the Yankees end up with a painful loss.

Since joining the Astros in late-summer 2017 — and prior to Monday — Justin Verlander had dominated the Yankees, allowing just two runs in 30 2/3 IP (0.59 ERA). Somehow the Yankees finally made him look human, scoring three runs in six innings off him. Aaron Judge had two hits — including an opposite-field laser shot into the rightfield seats — and a walk; entering this series, Judge was 0-for-13 with seven strikeouts against Verlander, his worst 0-fer vs any pitcher.

Tanaka was stellar in holding the Astros to one run on three hits in six innings. His 1.47 ERA is easily the best of his MLB career through this first three starts. It’s also a near-360 reversal from his notable early-season struggles in recent years, when he had a 5.19 ERA last year and a 8.36 ERA in 2017 after three turns.

Adam Ottavino allowed the go-ahead run after issuing a one-out walk and consecutive singles by Michael Brantley and Carlos Correa, the latter a dribbler towards first base that went 22 feet and had an exit velocity of 28.9 mph. Prior to that meltdown, Ottavino had not allowed a hit or run in his first five appearances of the season.

(USA Today)

April 9: Bullpen Bummer II
Another day, another game, another brutal and crushing loss thanks another bullpen implosion.

Luke Voit staked the Yankees to an early 1-0 lead with a solo homer to dead-center field. We know Voit has big muscles, and one good use for those big muscles is destroying baseballs to the farthest reaches of the park, notably deep center field. Since the start of last season (through Tuesday), 384 players had hit at least 40 balls to center; Voit’s 1.065 slugging percentage on batted balls to center ranked first in that group.

On Tuesday it was Jonathan Holder and Chad Green’s turn to play the starring roles in the late-inning collapse. Holder allowed the game-tying run in the seventh on back-to-back doubles by Alex Bregman and Michael Brantley.

Bregman’s double was the result of a bad defensive misplay and awkward dive by Clint Frazier. Per Statcast tracking, the ball had a catch probability of 95 percent. (Catch probability is defined as the likelihood that a batted ball to the outfield will be caught, based on four data points: 1. How far did the fielder have to go? 2. How much time did he have to get there? 3. What direction did he need to go in? 4. Was proximity to the wall a factor?)

Through Tuesday, Frazier had three batted balls hit to him with a catch probability of less than 99 percent (routine play) but greater than 50 percent (50/50 play). He missed the catch on all three of those defensive plays.

Green took the loss, charged with the three runs allowed in eighth. It was the first appearance of his career that he gave up at least three runs and got fewer than three outs.

Knowing that it’s still super-early into the season and that the following stats get the small-sample-size warning, here are some numbers to chew on (through Tuesday’s games):

  • Three blown saves and four bullpen losses were both tied for the MLB lead
  • Two losses (Monday and Tuesday) when leading at the end of the sixth inning; only Cubs and Rockies had more (3). Yankees last year had only five such losses, tied for fewest in MLB.
  • Four losses when tied at the end of the seventh inning, the most in MLB this season. Yankees had only seven last year.
(Getty)

April 10: Paxton Pummeled
At least there was no lead for the bullpen to blow on Wednesday night. That’s about the only “positive” thing you can say about the terrible 8-6 loss they suffered as the road trip came to a depressing end in Houston, capping the first-ever series sweep by the Astros over the Yankees. Is this a good time to mention that there are still 150 games left in the season?

The Yankees and its fans were feeling pretty good three pitches into the game when Gardy went Yardy for his 15th career leadoff homer but those good feelings were quickly erased when James Paxton coughed up a solo homer to Jose Altuve and an RBI triple by Yuli Gurriel in the bottom of the frame. Paxton dominated the Astros in four starts last year (4-0, 2.05 ERA) and had a 1.89 ERA in eight starts against them from 2017-18, but this game was a complete disaster:

James Paxton vs Astros
IP Runs HR Batters Faces
2019 4 5 2 21
2018 26.1 6 1 105

Despite Paxton’s track record of success against the Astros, this loss was hardly surprising based on more recent team trends:

  • The Yankees fell to 4-6 when scoring first this season. Last year they had the second-best record when scoring first, winning 81 percent of those games. On average, teams that score first go on to win 66 percent of the time.
  • This was the 11th time in 12 games this season that the Yankees held a lead … and they are 5-6 in those games. Last year they had a .797 win percentage in such games. The only other teams this season with a below-.500 record when leading at any point in the game are the Red Sox (3-6) and Royals (2-7).
  • Eight of their 12 games have been decided by two runs or fewer, and they are 2-6 in those games, one of the five worst marks in MLB. Last year the Yankees had a .561 win percentage in those games, seventh-best in the majors.

The Yankees put their rally caps on in the eighth inning and mounted a gutsy near-comeback to pull within a run. But Gary Sanchez, inserted in the lineup to pinch hit for Tyler Wade with two outs and a man on third, struck out to end the inning. In a very small sample, El Gary has been … umm … not good when coming to the plate cold off the bench:

Thoughts following the first road trip of 2019

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Sevy  :(     (Mike Stobe/Getty)

The first road trip of the 2019 season is in the books and the Yankees are heading home for a nine-game homestand against the Royals and various shades of Sox. But first, the Yankees have an off-day today. Here are some assorted thoughts.

1. The latest Luis Severino injury is real bad news. Lat strains can be season killers — Johnny Cueto (2013) and Noah Syndergaard (2017) recently had seasons derailed by lat issues — because they are real easy to reaggravate. It’s similar to an oblique injury in that the recovery and rehab can be going well, then one sudden movement and bam, there’s a setback and you’re right back to square one. I suppose the good news is Cueto and Syndergaard showed no long-term effects and were excellent (and healthy) the very next season. The bad news is Severino getting back to normal next season doesn’t help the Yankees this season. Also, Severino has the rotator cuff inflammation on top of the lat strain, though being shut down these next six weeks will help clear that up. The Yankees are going to be without their best starting pitcher for at least another two months now between the six-week shutdown period and getting back into game shape, and that’s the best case scenario. These are two “be overly cautious because you don’t want any long-term problems” type of injuries too, so Severino could be out even longer. At this point, the Yankees should just not expect to get anything from Severino this season. Don’t count on him returning and treat anything he gives the team as a bonus. (I can already hear Aaron Boone, Brian Cashman, Hal Steinbrenner and whoever else saying that getting Severino back at midseason will be like making a trade and I am preemptively Mad Online.)

2. In the practical sense, what do I mean when I say the Yankees should “not expect to get anything from Severino this season?” I mean they should approach the trade deadline with the intention of adding another starting pitcher, and a good one too. The Yankees half-measured a little too much this past offseason — they reset their luxury tax rate last year and managed to spend right up to the $226M second luxury tax threshold this year while adding one difference-making free agent (Adam Ottavino), and I’m glad we’re shutting down RAB because I have no idea what to say about that — and they are very much a win-now team. When you’re trying to win a World Series, at some point you have to go get the best players and not worry about the best bang for the buck. Here are some starters who could potentially be available at the trade deadline:

  • Madison Bumgarner, Giants
  • Mike Minor, Rangers
  • Ivan Nova, White Sox
  • Aaron Sanchez, Blue Jays
  • Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays

Bumgarner hasn’t looked all that good in his three starts thus far — I watched his outing against the Padres the other day and nothing was coming easy, every at-bat was a grind (there’s also this) — but obviously he’s the big name there. Who knows how the Yankees view him. Personally, I want to see Bumgarner look closer to vintage Bumgarner before considering a trade. The name value outweighs the actual value quite a bit at the moment. Sanchez is the guy who interests me the most. Rather, I should say he’s the one I’ll be following most closely the next few weeks. I’m not sold on giving up a big package to get him yet. He’s battled finger injuries the last two seasons (last year he hurt himself on his suitcase) and he’s looked okay in his first two starts. The velocity and movement are there. Sanchez is somehow still only 26 and before the finger issues he was a strikeout/ground ball monster who posted a 3.00 ERA (3.55 FIP) in 192 innings in 2016. If we start to see that guy again this summer, he’s the starter I want at the trade deadline. Under control next year, has had success in the AL East, misses bats and gets grounders. Sanchez checks quite a few boxes. We’ll see how the next few weeks play out. Right now, given Severino’s situation, I think the Yankees should be looking hard at the starting pitcher trade market and be prepared to act when the time comes — and as soon as possible — and I’m not talking about a back-end innings dude either.

3. I know it’s still very early and he’ll probably be fine over the long haul, but man, I’m not feeling too good about Zack Britton right now. The results haven’t been good (5.2 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 4 K), and we’re seeing the same exact problems that plagued him last year. Specifically, he’s struggling to command his sinker and he’s falling behind in the count a ton. I don’t think he’s nibbling. I think he straight up can’t throw strikes. Also, Britton’s trademark sinker velocity is right where it was last year, not where it was during his monster years with the Orioles. Look:

Britton added velocity to his sinker as the season progressed last year and he got further away from the Achilles injury, and I was hopeful that would carry over to this season. It hasn’t happened. Maybe the sinker velocity will bounce back once the weather warms up and he gets into midseason form, but this is year one of what is effectively a three-year contract (because of the player option), and we’re already hoping the velocity ticks up in the summer months. Not great! Waiting around for the 31-year-old two years removed from arm problems to regain velocity is not a good place to be. The thing is, Britton can still be effective at this velocity. Very effective, in fact. He just needs better command than what he has right now (i.e. none), and a better infield defense too. I’m not declaring it a bad signing yet. It’s early and Britton’s track record carries weight, plus the Yankees deserve the benefit of the doubt. I’m just saying I’m not overly encouraged at the moment. I was hoping to see vintage Britton — or at least something close to it — following his first fully healthy offseason in several years. That has not been the case. The whole Super Bullpen thing only works when guys are pitching as expected and Britton most certainly is not, and it’s been a few years and several injuries since he’s been the pitcher the Yankees seem to expect him to be (given his contract).

4. The Xander Bogaerts extension (six years and $120M from 2020-25) isn’t all that relevant to Didi Gregorius. There are very few similarities between the two other than position and division. Bogaerts is nearly three years younger, he was a bit better last season (133 wRC+ and +4.9 WAR vs. 121 wRC+ and +4.6 WAR), and he’s healthier. Age and health are the two key differences here. I can’t imagine Sir Didi gets six years or $20M per year at this point. Not so soon after Tommy John surgery and not in this market. That Bogaerts deal is ridiculously cheap. I thought he had a pretty good chance at a $200M contract after the season as a prime-aged impact shortstop. (I’d thought about the Yankees signing him more than once over the winter, possibly even as a third baseman with Gregorius staying at short.) The Alex Bregman extension helped set the market for a potential Aaron Judge extension. The Eloy Jimenez deal shook up the market for a potential Gleyber Torres extension. The Bogaerts extension? I don’t think that has any relevance to Gregorius at all. They are at very different points in their careers — Bogaerts turns only 27 (!) in October — and the Tommy John surgery thing is a complicating factor. Love Didi. He is forever cool with me. He just doesn’t have much of a case for a Bogaerts level deal, even simply in terms of annual salary.

5. There is definitely a “you have to watch him every day to see how good he is” quality to DJ LeMahieu. He’s not going to run a .471 BABIP or hit .533 (!) on ground balls forever, but he grinds out at-bats, he hits the ball hard to all fields, and he’s excellent with the glove. Even at third base, where he had close to zero experience, he played very well defensively. Mixing in a home run every once in a while would be nice, though I’m sure he’ll hit the ball over the fence eventually. Besides, the Yankees have power to spare anyway. When the Yankees are at full strength (if they’re ever at full strength), LeMahieu would be the perfect No. 8 or No. 9 hitter. Pesky hitter near the bottom of the order who can cash in on run-scoring opportunities and also set the table for the top of the order once the lineup tuns over. The injuries have forced the Yankees to use LeMahieu closer to the middle of the lineup in the early going, but what can you do? Injuries force roster and lineup shuffles. Point is, this are going well in LeMahieu’s early days as a Yankee, and I suspect there is a not insignificant number of Yankees fans out there who disliked the signing but like him now after seeing his all-around game these last two weeks. LeMahieu’s not a star or anything. He can help his team win in several different ways though.

LeMahieu. (G Fiume/Getty)

6. I already have Troy Tulowitzki in Jacoby Ellsbury territory. Yes, he could fill a role right now, and yeah, healthy players are better than injured players, but he’s a non-factor. The Yankees don’t really miss him and I’m not all that eager to see him back on the field either. Tulowitzki didn’t show much these last six weeks or so to suggest he can be anything more than a bottom of the lineup guy who doesn’t kill his team defensively. Gio Urshela and Tyler Wade are also bottom of the lineup guys, except they’re both legitimately above-average in the field, and they don’t need to be coddled with playing time. (Two weeks ago Boone said the Yankees didn’t want to play Tulowitzki more than two days in a row early in the season.) The idea that Tulowitzki offers upside never made sense to me — it is very weird to me “upside” was used to describe a 34-year-old who hadn’t played in 18 months and hasn’t been good in three years (why are there no anonymously sourced reports saying Craig Kimbrel has upside? oh right because he’ll cost real money) — and I don’t think he’s any better than the guys the Yankees have on the roster right now. Depth is good and important. Tulowitzki and Ellsbury on the MLB roster with Urshela/Wade and Mike Tauchman in Triple-A is preferable to Tulowitzki and Ellsbury on the injured list. It doesn’t seem like the Yankees are missing out on much right now though. Tulowitzki doesn’t move the needle much, if he moves it at all.

7. Speaking of the infield, I don’t get why Urshela is starting over Wade. This one doesn’t make sense to me. (Yes, I know Wade started last night.) Neither guy is going to hit much but they’re going to play comfortably above-average defense. Wade is a way better runner though, and there’s very little chance Urshela will have a long-term role with the Yankees. In all likelihood he’ll be lost on waivers or elect free agency when the Yankees drop him from the roster later this year. Wade is three years younger and there’s at least a chance — a small one, but a chance nonetheless — he can have a long-term role with the Yankees. I dunno. They’re both going to play great defense and not hit much. Wade will add more value on the bases and he’s quite a bit younger. The Yankees would not be sacrificing anything on the field in the short-term and they might be gaining something in the long-term. Wade at second with LeMahieu at third would be my preferred alignment, not Urshela at third and LeMahieu at second. When the difference in expected production is tiny (and effectively zero), relegating the young guy to a bench role so the journeyman can play everyday is backwards to me. Shrug.

Astros 8, Yankees 6: Swept in Houston after eighth inning rally comes up short

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Well, at least they didn’t blow another late-inning lead. The Yankees dropped Wednesday’s series finale 8-6 to the Astros and were swept in the three-game series. If you’re an optimist, you can say the Yankees did a nice job hanging in against a great team even though so many key players are hurt. If you’re a pessimist, you can say the Yankees were outplayed in every phase of the game the entire series, and out-managed too. Me? I’m neither an optimist nor a pessimist. I’m just a guy still mad the Yankees didn’t sign Bryce Harper or Manny Machado.

(Bob Levey/Getty)

Big Lame James
On a night the Yankees needed James Paxton to put together a strong start, he fell pretty flat. Five runs and eleven baserunners in four innings plus two batters flat. The first eight Astros who put the ball in play against him made very loud contact. The exit velocities: 108.9, 76.9, 104.2, 75.0, 102.9, 103.3, 100.7, 108.1. Six of the eight in triple digits. Paxton was not fooling anyone.

In fact, Paxton threw 95 pitches Wednesday and the Astros swung and missed eight times, including only twice against his fastball. He had eight and 14 swings and misses on his fastball in his first two starts, respectively. The Astros are most certainly not the Orioles though. The ‘Stros were so on Paxton’s fastball that I thought the Yankees would change it up and have him lean on his curveball and cutter, but nope.

Paxton stuck with his fastball throughout the start. Jose Altuve hit a solo homer and Yuli Gurriel tripled in a run in the first inning — the triple included the daily outfield miscue, as Brett Gardner missed a dive and let the ball get by him — Carlos Correa doubled in a run in the third, and Altuve hit another homer in the fifth. Four homers in the three-game series Altuve. Way to not let the other team’s best player beat you, guys.

Of course, Paxton should not even have been on the mound in that fifth inning, but anytime you can send a struggling starter with a 90+ pitch count back out so he can face the middle of the lineup a third time, you have to do it. A homer and a single later, Paxton’s night was over. The line: 4 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 2 HR on 95 pitches. Anytime someone not named Masahiro Tanaka wants to pitch well, that’d be great.

Too Little, Too Late
Wednesday’s game started so well. Gardner hit Collin McHugh’s third pitch over the right field wall for a leadoff homer and a quick 1-0 lead. A Greg Bird walk and a DJ LeMahieu single to start the second inning went for naught, and a Gleyber Torres double and a Bird single to start the fourth inning led to only one run. That came on a LeMahieu sacrifice fly. McHugh retired nine straight after that.

It wasn’t until the eighth inning, after Houston built a 7-2 lead, that the Yankees made it interesting. Let’s annotated the play-by-play:

(1) Luke Voit is not not strong. Josh James left a mistake slider up in the zone and it left Voit’s bat like a bolt of lightning. Zipped out to left field in an instant for a two-run home run. Statcast says this homer had a 105.0 mph exit velocity but I don’t believe it. That feels light. After a little weeklong skid, Voit has three home runs in his last six games. That’s more like it.

(2) This was probably Bird’s best at-bat of the season. He fell behind the count 0-2 against James, an extreme hard-thrower, and he worked the count back full before taking the eight-pitch walk. Bird fouled away two two-strike pitches to stay alive at one point. Four straight Yankees reached to start the inning and they had two runs on the board and the tying run at the plate. They were in business.

(3) Good gravy what an at-bat by LeMahieu. Fell behind in the count 1-2, worked it back full, spoiled two tough two-strike pitches, then punched a double down the right field line. Hector Rondon showed LeMahieu everything he had and couldn’t put him away. Fastballs, sliders, nothing worked. LeMahieu went 3-for-3 with a double and a sac fly in the game. He’s hitting .410/.455/.538 (178 wRC+) in the early going. Imagine where these beat up Yankees would be without him.

(4) On one hand, a sacrifice fly to bring a run in and put the tying run at third base with one out is a good outcome. On the other hand, gosh, it felt like Clint Frazier’s sac fly really took the wind out the team’s sails that inning, didn’t it? Five straight Yankees reached base … and then suddenly it was up to the eighth and ninth hitters to get the job done. Frazier hit the ball hard. It just happened to be caught. That was a bummer. The beginning of the end of the rally.

(5) With a runner at third and less than one out in the second, Austin Romine struck out on three pitches and the Yankees did not score. With a runner at third and less than out in the eighth, Romine hit a soft little line drive right to Altuve at second base. Didn’t get the run in either time. I look forward to the YES Network splashing his numbers with runners in scoring position on the screen all summer after he has the annual two-week hot streak that props up his numbers the rest of the year.

Anyway, after the Yankees scored four in the eighth to make it a one-run game, the Astros put an insurance run on the board against Zack Britton. Torres came in on Jake Marisnick’s weak grounder and rushed the throw, leading to yet another Yankees error. Britton’s inning went single (error), single, strikeout, walk, single, double play. He’s up to 12 baserunners and ten swings and misses on the season. I think I’m more excited to follow this than the Aaron Judge vs. J.A. Happ home run race.

(Presswire)

Leftovers
Tommy Kahnle replaced Paxton in the fifth inning and not only allowed the inherited runner to score, he allowed two runs of his own to score as well. Joe Harvey was the only standout on the pitching side. He struck out three in two scoreless innings in his MLB debut. Adam Ottavino warmed up for the eighth, yet Britton went out to face all the righties at the top of the lineup. The blog is too close to closing for this crap.

Every starter reached base at least once except Frazier, who had a sacrifice fly, and Romine. Single and a walk for Judge, single and a double for Torres, single and two walks for Bird, two singles and a double for LeMahieu. Gary Sanchez pinch-struck-out for Tyler Wade to end the eighth. He didn’t pinch-hit for Romine because he’s nursing a tight calf and the Yankees didn’t want him to catch.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
For the box score and video highlights, go to MLB.com. ESPN has the updated standings and we have a Bullpen Workload page. Here is the loss probability graph:


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
The road trip is over and the Yankees are heading back to the Bronx for a nine-game homestand. Thursday is an off-day, then the Yankees open a three-game series with the White Sox on Friday night. J.A Happ and Lucas Giolito are the scheduled starting pitchers. That is a 7:05pm ET start and it’s Bernie Williams bobblehead night, so that’s cool.