Open Thread: Taking care of business

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

The Yankees don’t have much more business left to take care of this offseason, aside from that whole starting pitcher thing of course. They signed their last three arbitration-eligible players today, and eventually the pre-arbitration guys will have their contracts renewed at something close to the league minimum. The Rafael Soriano signing is now official (according to a press release), and it seems like Andruw Jones will be in the fold soon enough. Otherwise, that’s pretty much it. They might look at some utility infielders, but I wouldn’t expect any major moves at all, even on the starting pitching side. All that’s left of the offseason is to just ride it out, sit around and wait for pitchers and catchers to report in about four weeks. The dog days of January are no fun.

Anyways, here is your open thread for the evening. Not one of the local hockey or basketball teams are playing tonight, which pretty much sucks. Talk about whatever your heart desires.

Joba Update: Joba Joba Joba

The trickle down effect of this Rafael Soriano signing is that now everyone’s talking about Joba Chamberlain and what his role should be going forward. We’re blogging like it’s 2008. Anyway, on Friday we found out that the Yankees are willing to trade Joba but only as part of a package for a “viable starter,” which I assume means someone better than Joe Blanton or Armando Galarraga. Of course most of us are wondering why they won’t just try him as a starter if they’re willing to trade him (as part of a package!) for one. Does not compute.

If the Yankees did want to give Joba another go in the rotation, they could send him down to Triple-A so that he could properly stretch out. He would need to pass through optional waivers to do that because of his service time situation (explained them here), but Keith Law spoke to a front office person who confirmed that players are never plucked off those kinds of waivers. They’re completely revocable, so even if some team did place a claim in on Joba, the Yankees could pull him right back. The point is that if they want to turn him back into a starter, they have several ways to go about it. Now it’s just a matter of deciding to actually do it.

The RAB Radio Show: January 18, 2010

The Yankees agreed to contracts with three arbitration-eligible players today. Boone Logan, Joba Chamberlain, and Phil Hughes are all under contract for 2011 at reasonable rates. Mike and I talk a bit about that, and a bit more about how the arbitration process affects the team.

Also, I’m sure we’ll find a day where we don’t talk about Rafael Soriano. Today is not that day.

Podcast run time 24:26

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Five biggest outs of the 2010 season

Earlier today we went back and looked at the five biggest hits of the Yankees’ season using WPA, so now we’re going to go back and look at the five biggest outs/defensive plays of the campaign. You’re not going to see the same kind of huge win probability swings just because it’s very difficult for one defensive play to increase a team’s chances of winning that much. Sometimes though, getting that one out can be a whole lot more stressful than getting that one big hit. I hate to ruin the surprise, but the greatest closer of all team will be featured prominently…

(AP Photo/Andy King)

May 26th: Mo gets Denard Span to bang into a double play
Things weren’t going so well for the Yankees in late-May. Their inaugural trip to Target Field was coming on the heels of five losses in six games, and the team was struggling to score runs. Although this game started on the 25th, it was actually completed on the 26th because of a rain-induced suspension of play in the fifth inning. The Yankees were leading one-zip on a Derek Jeter solo homer when Mariano Rivera came to the mound in the ninth. He sat down J.J. Hardy to lead off the inning, but then walked pinch hitter Jim Thome, who was immediately replaced by pinch runner Alexi Casilla. Denard Span was at the plate as the winning run, but Casilla never attempted to steal second and get himself into scoring position. Mo got Span to ground the ball to second, resulting in a game ending 4-6-3 double play. The WPA of this play was 0.22.

August 11th: Mo gets Josh Hamilton (video)
The state of Texas was not kind to the Yankees in 2010, and in fact this game took place after David Murphy’s walk-off single the night before. With the Yankees up by a run to start the ninth, Elvis Andrus gave the Rangers some hope with a leadoff triple, putting the tying run 90 feet away with the heart of the order coming up. Michael Young popped up the first pitch of his at-bat to shallow right, too shallow for Andrus to score. Texas would have still been able to tie the game by making an out at this point, and they had the eventual MVP coming to the plate. To make matters worse, Rivera fell behind Hamilton 2-0. Mo gave him his trademark cutter, but Hamilton tapped the ball back to the pitcher, again keeping Andrus anchored to third. Because it took the opportunity to score a run on an out away, the WPA swing of Hamilton’s at-bat was 0.25. Vlad Guerrero grounded out to end the game two pitches later, but Hamilton’s out was key.

May 26th: Andy gets Joe Mauer to bounce into a twin killing (video)
A few hours after Span grounded into his twin killing, Andy Pettitte got the reigning MVP to do the same. The score was tied at two in the eighth inning, but Andy was still out there since his pitch count was barely over 80 (83 to be exact). Backup catcher Drew Butera led the inning off with a double, and he then moved over to third to when Alex Rodriguez botched a Span sacrifice bunt attempt. Runners were at the corners with no outs, and the meat of Minnesota’s lineup was coming to the dish. Orlando Hudson lined a pitch back to Andy for the first out, but like I said, it was just the first out. Pettitte fell behind in the count to Mauer, putting him one ball away from a bases loaded situation. Instead, Mauer made weak contact on a slider away, resulting in a garden variety 6-4-3 double and one amazing fist pump from the old man. Mauer’s GIDP resulted in a WPA swing of 0.25.

Oh yeah, and he got an at-bat. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

June 23rd: Mariano’s Mona Lisa (video)
Okay, I confess, this isn’t just one out, it’s three consecutive outs. But they all happened in the same inning, and they each resulted in one of the highest individual defensive WPA swings of the season. I figured it was only right to lump them together, since together they represent the mastery of Mariano Rivera.

The Yankees were in Arizona and up a run in the tenth inning after Curtis Granderson‘s solo homer, but things started to get tenuous rather quickly. Stephen Drew led off the inning with a single, then ended up at third after The Justin Upton doubled. With the winning run at second and a base open, Mo intentionally walked Miguel Montero (2-for-3 in the game and 13-for-33 with five doubles and two homers in his previous eight games) to create the force at any base with still no outs. This is when the master went to work.

The first out of the inning was completely harmless as Chris Young popped up a 1-1 pitch behind the plate, with Frankie Cervelli making the catch. Adam LaRoche followed Young, and after another 1-1 count, the first baseman popped the pitch up to third base, invoking the infield fly rule. Two men down, but the bases were still loaded. Mark Reynolds ended 54.7% of his plate appearances with a walk, a homer, or a strikeout in 2010, but only two of those would have been helped him in this spot. Instead, he went with door number three. Rivera got Reynolds swinging at a pitch off the plate, stranding all three runners and preserving the win. The WPA swings were rather remarkable: 0.20 (Young), 0.27 (LaRoche), and 0.28 (Reynolds). The last two were the third and second biggest outs of the season, respectively, and they came back-to-back. Oh, and that was Mo’s second inning of work on the night. Insanity.

(AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

Sept. 14th: Mo to Golson to A-Rod (video)
Despite all of his success, Mo needed a little help in making the biggest defensive play of the 2010 season. Jorge Posada had given the Yankees a one run lead with a long solo homer in the top of the tenth, but Carl Crawford led off the bottom half with a single. As expected, he stole second base but only after Evan Longoria flew out to deep center. The tying run was in scoring position, and a blown lead would have been rather demoralizing since the Yanks were coming off four straight losses and seven in their last eight games.

Matt Joyce had proven to be a thorn in New York’s side earlier in the season, and this time all he needed was a little bloop or a seeing eye single to knot things up. Rivera ran the count full, and on the sixth pitch of the encounter Joyce lifted a routine fly ball to Greg Golson in right. Crawford tagged up and once the ball settled into Golson’s glove, he took off for third. Unfortunately for him, the outfielder decided to give everyone a free look at the gun show. He threw Crawford out the third, ending the game in perhaps the most unexpected way possible. The combination of the fly out and throw out at third resulted in a WPA swing of 0.29. That throw still amazes me.

Hughes, Joba, Logan all agree to one year deals

Via Jon Heyman, the Yankees have avoided arbitration with both Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. The former gets $2.7M, the latter $1.4M. I had Hughes getting around $3.5M and Joba about $1.8M, so I clearly need to sharpen my arb skills. Both players were eligible for arbitration for the first time, and they’re still pretty underpaid compared to what they’d get on the open market.

Update: Boone Logan signed for $1.2M according to Heyman. I pegged him for a $1M salary or so. Unlike Hughes and Joba, it was Logan’s second time up for arbitration, though he’s a Super Two and gets four cracks at the process.

These three plus Sergio Mitre were the only Yankees eligible for arbitration this winter. Mitre signed back in December, so it all got taken care of without a hearing(s). Good stuff.