River Avenue Blues

Let’s play two!

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One year ago today on DotF, Mark Melancon made his Triple-A debut.

This is the coolest thing you’ll see all day, by the way. (h/t Ben Badler)

Triple-A Scranton
Game 1 (6-2 loss to Durham in 7 innings) makeup of yesterday’s rain out
Kevin Russo: 2 for 3, 1 K, 1 SB, 1 E (fielding)
Ramiro Pena, Austin Jackson, Shelley Duncan & Chris Stewart: all 0 for 2 – Pena walks … Jackson walked & K’ed … Shelley was hit by a pitch & scored a run
Juan Miranda & Yurendell DeCaster: both 1 for 3 – Miranda homered, drove in two & K’ed
John Rodriguez & Colin Curtis: both 0 for 3 – J-Rod K’ed twice
Ivan Nova: 7 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 5 R, 3 BB, 2 K, 7-12 GB/FB – 60 of 91 pitches were strikes (65.9%) … 16 ER & 30 baserunners allowed in his last 15.2 IP, so yeah, he’s in a rough patch

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Game 102: Shi-Town

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(I keed, I keed, Chicago’s a great city)

Coming off arguably their biggest series win of the season, the Yankees head into Chicago’s south side for a four game set against the 51-51 White Sox. Just to give you an idea of how different the AL East and AL Central are, the ChiSox would be sitting in fourth place in the East, eleven games back in the loss column for first. Instead, they’re just three back of the Tigers and very much in the thick of the race.

I’m sure Nick Swisher and Ozzie Guillen will have a blast catching up during batting practice and stuff. We all know they had a harmonious relationship during Nick’s time with the White Sox, two peas in a pod almost.

…

Okay seriously, Ozzie effing hated Swish. I know some Yankee fans do as well because the guy botches the occasional defensive play, but Ozzie’s dislike for the guy allowed the Yanks to acquire an incredibly productive outfielder (120 OPS+) for basically nothing. So thanks, Oz. Keep smartballin’ teams to death, or whatever the hell they’re calling it these days. You’re only three games back after all.

The Red Sox already won this afternoon, so the division lead currently sits at three games. Let’s pick up that extra half-game tonight. Here’s the lineup that’ll oppose Gavin Floyd:

Jeter, SS
Damon, LF
Teixeira, 1B
A-Rod, 3B
Matsui, DH
Swisher, RF
Cano, 2B
Melky, CF
Molina, C

And on the mound, good ol’ Andy Pettitte.

Thinking further on Joba’s usage

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In last night’s recap, I brought up the issue of how to handle Joba going forward. The immediate idea is that since his next start falls on an off-day, it’s best to skip him there. Not only can you manage his innings that way, but by doing that you line up A.J., CC, Joba, and Pettitte against Boston, rather than having Mitre in the mix. But what happens after that? The Yanks are going to have to skip him a few more times if the plan really is to have Joba pitch through the end of the season.

After Boston, Joba would have to pitch the series opener in Seattle, and again in the middle game of the Oakland series. The Yanks have an off-day on the 20th, which would be Mitre’s turn in the rotation, but they pretty much have to skip him that turn, because they have three games in Fenway. Yet because of the way the schedule is laid out — the Yankees have off-days surrounding the three-game set at Fenway — we might see Mitre tossing the series opener.

If the Yanks just push everyone back and pitch Mitre on Friday the 21, they could skip Joba again because his start would fall on the 24th, another off-day. He would be on tap to start again against the White Sox on the 29th. That would give him four starts in August, and at six innings a start would put him at roughly 135 innings, and if he’s pitching well it could put him near 140. That would appear to be right up against his limit, or at least what we’ve assumed is his limit.

So what about September, then? If Joba’s innings limit is 150, it’s pointless to even go through the schedule. He’d have just two starts left. The Yanks have 28 games in September, including a doubleheader with the Rays, and then three more in October. Are they just going to let Joba pitch, innings be damned? Are they going to move him to the bullpen in September?

Brian Cashman has said many times that there is a plan in place for Joba. As we move into August, they will start to unveil that plan. We’ll see if he gets skipped and when. We’ll see what kind of moves he makes not only at the deadline, but afterward. I’m not going to say I have the answer, even though I did lay out a possible plan above. It’s just a guess. But whatever the plan happens to be, it doesn’t look like Joba can get through the end of the season without massively exceeding his previous career high in innings pitched.

The Yankees activities over the next 22 and a half hours will speak a lot towards what they’re thinking.

Matt Garza opens mouth, asks for suspension

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After Joba Chamberlain threw over the head of Evan Longoria last night, Rays starter Matt Garza retaliated in the fifth by grazing plunking Mark Teixeira in the shoulder. I actually didn’t think it was payback at all; Dioner Navarro had set up inside, Tampa was already down 2-0, and Garza would have been putting two men on for Alex frickin’ Rodriguez. But alas, I was wrong. “I just kind of got tired of people brushing [Longoria] back,’’ Garza said. “I hate to be that guy, but someone had to take a stand and say, “You know, we’re tired of it.” You can go after our best guy, well, we’ll make some noise too, and that’s what happened.’’

Considering Josh Beckett and AJ Burnett received six game suspensions for not hitting batters this season, is it crazy to think Garza might get an 11-game suspension (forcing him to miss two starts) considering he hit a guy and admitted to doing it on purpose? Bobby Jenks got just a $750 fine for admitting he threw behind Ian Kinsler earlier this year, so maybe Garza just ends up missing one start and a couple grand. Who knows, but I think Bob Watson has proven something like this will not go unpunished.

Do we overvalue Yankee prospects?

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This guest post comes from Moshe Mandel of The Yankee Universe.

We live in a town where the most popular sports talk radio host in the area knows Jesus Montero as “that catchuh in AA that everyone likes so much.” The fact that people who do not know anything about the farm system are the ones informing the masses leads many local fans to view prospects in a dismissive light. You will hear trade proposals from fans that empty a farm system because they really do not know much about the minor leaguers, and the hosts whom they trust are not about to inform them. Those of us who are internet-savvy and read sites such as BP, BA, and RAB tend to believe that our education in these matters grants us a greater understanding of the value of prospects, and we are disdainful of most of these trade proposals. However, there is a downside to our “education.”

Those of us who know all about the prospects quickly become attached to each one’s chances to prosper. We read DotF every night, and dream of the day in 2013 when the rotation is King Felix (of course), Joba, Hughes, McCallister, and Brackman, where Austin Jackson is patrolling center and Jesus Montero is hitting bombs into the bullpen. We tend to overvalue them, glossing over or rationalizing their flaws as youth and inexperience rather than actual limitations of talent.

When John Sickels or BA constructs a list of Yankee prospects, there are invariably claims of bias against the author, as we cannot fathom how player X was given a C+ grade. Suddenly, we are loathe to give up an Austin Jackson or an Austin Romine to improve the club, and would be livid at Cashman if he gave up legitimate prospects for almost anyone but Roy Halladay. While it is easy to say that a middle ground exists where a fan can properly evaluate prospects that belong to his favorite club, it is in practice very difficult for a fan to identify that ground and stick to it.

While I am sure that most of you are thinking “not me, I know how to value the Yankee prospects,” think about how you might have reacted if the Yankees had traded Jackson, Zach McAllister, Romine/Cervelli, and Dellin Betances/Arodys Vizcaino for Cliff Lee, a package similar to the one the Phillies gave up (Mike thought Cervelli and Vizcaino would be enough, Jim Callis thought it made sense with Romine and Betances included). I know that I certainly would have been conflicted about that sort of deal, despite the fact that it probably would have been the right move for the Yankees to make.

This does not mean that we should stop following prospects, or be satisfied when the GM gives them up in a clearly poor deal. Rather, it is important as fans for us to note that most prospects do not pan out. We see all of these guys as future contributors to big league clubs, but reality is usually not so kind to baseball players. A cursory glance at John Sickel’s top 20 Yankee prospects list from 2006 shows two players currently helping the Yankees (Hughes, Gardner), and one who may help someday (Jackson). Otherwise, there seems to be plenty of filler, injured players, and guys who were traded and flopped with their new clubs.

Baseball requires such physical precision that minor injuries can entirely derail a player’s career, and scouting in baseball is particularly difficult as a player’s skills often do not translate to higher levels of competition. It is the job of the GM to identify a position of organizational strength and deal from it to supplement the major league club, while retaining the guys that can actually help you down the line. Brian Cashman is fairly good at this, as the only legitimate major leaguers on the 2006 list are still in the organization. Remember that when he trades your personal favorite for a starter or reliever prior to the trading deadline.

What do you think? Does knowing a lot about prospects lead to overvaluation of those assets by the educated fan? Does it cloud our judgment of what might be a fair trade?