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River Ave. Blues » A.J. Molina

Mailbag: Lee, Darvish, Granderson, Bats, ALDS

September 24, 2010 by Mike 51 Comments

Are you guys digging the mailbag? I thought it would be a good way to interact with readers, but I don’t want it to come off as cheap, lazy content. I want it to actually be informative and interesting and stuff. Let me know what you’ve thought of the RAB Mailbag experience so far in the comments.

This week we’re going to tackle Cliff Lee vs. Yu Darvish, Curtis Granderson’s surprising power, maple bats, and the best potential ALDS matchup. If you want to send in a question, use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar.

Kevin asks: This offseason say Cliff Lee hits the market, Yu Darvish is posted, and Andy Pettitte wants to come back, which two do the Yankees chase? Or do they try to find a way to get rid of Burnett and chase all three?

If Pettitte wants to come back, he comes back, guaranteed. That’s not a decision that has to be made, it’s a given.

Between Lee and Darvish, I would think the Yanks prefer Lee. He’s a known commodity in the American League, they’re obviously obsessed with him given how many times they’ve tried to acquire him the last year-and-a-half, and there’s bidding process involved. It’s true free agency. While Darvish is a great young pitcher (younger than Phil Hughes!), he’s a complete unknown when it comes to his ability to succeed in MLB and transition to a new culture and everything. Plus the long-term track record of Japanese starters in MLB isn’t great, though they generally have one or two strong seasons before regressing. That may have something to do with going from a once-a-week schedule to a once every five days schedule. There’s simply much, much more risk.

As much as we might want it to happen, A.J. Burnett’s not going anywhere. Too much money left on the deal ($49.5M), and they’re not going to eat a chunk of it so he could pitch for someone else. For better or worse, A.J.’s here to stay.

Shai asks: Curtis Granderson is a power hitter. How does he generate so much pop, being a small guy who doesn’t look very muscular/strong?

Don’t be fooled, Grandy’s jacked. Watch some Yankees on Deck or something like that when they show him wearing something other than a uniform and you’ll see it. He’s thin, but I bet if you poked him in the chest with your finger it’d be like poking a rock.

Also, pure muscle doesn’t result in homers. A lot of it has to due with bat speed, and too much muscle mass can actually hinder that. Brute strength isn’t everything when it comes to hitting homers.

Joe asks: I was writing to see if you had an opinion on the use of maple bats. Do you think that MLB should ban them from the game for safety? Damon would shatter tons of those last year.

Maple bats are a problem just because they shatter so much more than ash bats. Obviously there was the Tyler Colvin incident a few days ago, but there was also the less publicized Rick Helling incident a few years ago, when a 15-inch piece of a broken bat lodged three inches into his left arm. Yeah, how about that for an under-reported story?

Broken bats are part of baseball, but that’s not a reason to blindly accept the dangers of maple bats. They don’ crack like ash bats, they shatter and splinter and become dangerous projectiles. It’s only a matter of time before a shard of a bat flies into the stands and does something horrible to a fan. I mean, it’s inevitable. Attendance is too high and there are just too many broken bats. Players use maple because they feel like the ball jumps off he bat better, and in fact they’re more expensive than ash.

You would think that the teams themselves would be interested in getting rid of maple bats because those are their players on the field and I imagine they want to protect their investments. The Yanks go to great lengths to monitor Phil Hughes’ workload, but shouldn’t they also want to do away with maple bats to avoid a possible injury to CC Sabathia? I don’t want to tell baseball how to run their league, but the safety of the players and (especially) the fans should be the first thing on their minds.

I guess I never answered the question. Yeah, get rid of them. Easier said than done, of course.

Drew asks: Long-time reader, first-time emailer. I have a slightly controversial question for you and the readers: do we want our Yanks to actually win the Wild Card instead of the AL East? The reason I ask is that the stars appear to be aligning for us to face the Rangers in the ALDS, and I’m more afraid of their rotation than the Twins’. The way the playoff schedule lines up, teams can realistically go with three starters in each series, meaning we’d be facing this Rangers front three: Lee, C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis. For the Twins, it’d be Liriano, Pavano and Scott Baker. I’d rather face the Twins’ three than the Rangers’. And if we win the AL East we’d almost certainly face the Rangers – whether the Twins grab homefield advantage or not – while if we get the Wild Card it’s almost a lock we play the Twins.

What do you think? Obviously I never like my teams to stumble into the playoffs, but it wouldn’t be the worst thing if the Rays won this series and held us off the rest of the way, right?

(This was sent in a few days ago, obviously)

I’d prefer a matchup with the Rangers, for many reasons. One, I don’t think the difference in the rotations is all that big. Yes, potentially facing Lee twice in a five game series is scary, but it’s not like facing Liriano instead would be any easier. The Yanks have had their way with Wilson a few times this season, but Lewis is an admittedly tough matchup because he’s got a good changeup and the Yanks have never seem him before. That’s a big double whammy right there, though perhaps the two negatives cancel out into a positive, I dunno. Pavano, despite his past in New York, has pitched well this season and Baker has actually been tough against the Yanks historically. I’d rather face Wilson (who’s thrown more innings this year than he did in 2007, 2008, and 2009 combined) and Lewis (who’s never been in any kind of playoff race in his life) than the duo Minny has backing up their ace.

Two, the Rangers without a healthy Josh Hamilton just aren’t the same. He’s been getting cortisone shots like they’ve been going out of style for his ribs and whatever else, and there’s still no concrete date for his return to the lineup. That dynamic, anything is possible at any time force is missing from their lineup. Yes, the Twins are without Justin Morneau, but their depth makes his loss more tolerable. If Hamilton’s not 100%, I’d much rather take my chances with Vlad Guerrero, Ian Kinsler, David Murphy, and Nelson Cruz than Joe Mauer, Jim Thome, Jason Kubel, and Delmon Young. Of course Hamilton might be healthy and productive by the time the ALDS starts and that would change things, but that’s far from a safe assumption.

Three, for most part the Rangers are playoff virgins. Vlad, Lee, and Darren Oliver have been in playoff games before, but that’s pretty much it. Not their number two or three starters, not their closer or setup men or middle reliever, not most of the lineup. The Twins have all been there, done that before. I don’t want to make a big deal of the experience factor, but I absolutely believe it means something in the postseason. Not as much as I might be making it sound, but I don’t think it’s a negligible factor.

I know they seem completely incapable of beating the Yankees in the Bronx and history is against them, but the Twins scare me more in the short series. They’re playing better right now, have been for the last few months really, and they just seem like a deeper and more dangerous club. This isn’t the NFL where the better team basically always wins, anything can happen in a short series in baseball, but I’d still rather face the team that’s gone 30-27 since mid-July than the one that’s gone 45-17.

Filed Under: Mailbag Tagged With: A.J. Molina, Andy Pettitte, Cliff Lee, Curtis Granderson, Yu Darvish

The A.J. and Jose show

September 30, 2009 by Benjamin Kabak 69 Comments

As Juan Miranda’s line drive literally off of Kyle Farnsworth escaped the Royals’ fielders and Eric Hinske scampered to the plate, the Yankees came together last night to celebrate their 15th walk-off win of the season. Juan Miranda became the latest victim of the Walk-Off Pie, and with their 102nd win, the Yanks opened a season-high 10.5-game lead over the Red Sox.

Lost in the feel-good defeat of a much-maligned former Yankee was another solid start by A.J. Burnett. Joe touched upon Burnett’s outing in the recap, but it warrants a closer look. Burnett went 6.1 innings, and he didn’t give up much. The Royals managed to plate two runs — one earned — on three hits and three walks. Burnett struck out eight on the night.

For A.J., last night’s outing was another in a string of good September starts. After a rough five weeks in August and September, Burnett has now surrendered four earned runs over his last 19 innings. He has surrendered 17 hits and just nine walks in that span while striking out 25. In fact, if we look at Burnett’s bad start against the Orioles, we see that, after surrendering a grand slam to Brian Roberts, Burnett was nearly untouchable. That day, he retired 17 of the last 19 batters he faced and threw 5.2 one-hit innings.

If we head back to Sept. 8, we see yet another good A.J. Burnett start. Against Tampa, he threw six innings and allowed one run on four hits and three walks. He also struck out eight that day. So over his last five starts, he has thrown 32 innings with a 2.81 ERA and has given up 28 hits and 14 walks while striking out 37. That’s not too shabby for a second or third starter.

There is, however, a downside to A.J.’s success. As Steve Lombardi concisely puts it in a color-coded post, Burnett’s success has come with Jose Molina behind the plate. Throughout September, Molina has been A.J.’s caddy. In August, during A.J.’s bad starts — an early August debacle against the White Sox and a late August shellacking by the Red Sox — Jorge Posada was catching.

And so we fear what this means. As Joe speculated last week, it appears as though Joe Girardi will pair up A.J. Burnett and Jose Molina during the playoffs. Jorge Posada would ride the bench and be available to come into the game the minute Burnett is removed. The Yanks, however, contend that Posada sat out not due to A.J.’s pitching but because of his sore neck. I report; you decide.

It’s hard to stress how much of an offensive blackhole Molina has been this year. His hit today broke an 0-for-19 streak, and his triple slash line is .215/.295/.262. Jorge, meanwhile, is hitting .290/.369/.534. Molina’s VORP is currently -6.7; Jorge’s is 35.1. Molina has contributed -9.0 runs above (below?) average at the plate while Jorge’s contribution is a positive 19.7. Get the picture?

Joe Girardi can get cute with the lineup if he wants to. It is, after all, his team. If he honestly and truly believes that A.J. Burnett is that much better of a pitcher with Jose Molina behind the plate, then so be it. I remain skeptical and shudder to see the lineup card when Burnett takes the mound next week in Game 2 or 3 of the ALDS.

Filed Under: Playoffs Tagged With: A.J. Molina, Horrendously Stupid, Jose Molina

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