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2018 Winter Meetings Rumors Thread: Tuesday

December 11, 2018 by Mike

Day One of the Winter Meetings came and went yesterday without much activity. The were two small signings (Billy Hamilton to the Reds, Tyson Ross to the Tigers) and several waiver claims. That’s about it. There were plenty of rumors, of course, and the Yankees were involved in a few of ’em. Brian Cashman admitted he’s been in touch with Manny Machado’s and Yusei Kikuchi’s agents, plus we learned the Yankees aren’t comfortable with a three-year deal for J.A. Happ. Can’t say I am either.

“The operation that George (Steinbrenner) was able to operate and navigate through is nowhere close to the one that Hal Steinbrenner has to operate and navigate through,” Cashman said to Ronald Blum. “It’s a convenient, easy story to write about us being different than the Boss’s Yankees, but the game’s completely different, too, And I think we’ve been operating in a different capacity because it’s a whole new world order.”

Late last night word got out the Yankees are discussing a three-team trade with the Mets and Marlins that would put Noah Syndergaard in pinstripes. J.T. Realmuto would go to Queens and I assume the Yankees would send prospects to Miami. A trade this complicated is always a long shot — surely the Mets have other ways to get Realmuto without giving up Syndergaard, right? — and that goes double when there’s a Yankees-Mets element involved. This would be pretty rad though.

Anyway, here are Monday’s rumors. We’ll again keep track of all the day’s Yankees-related rumblings right here in this post, so make sure you check back often. Remember, the Winter Meetings are in Las Vegas this year. It might take a little while before everyone on the West Coast wakes up and starts feeding rumors and hot stove news to us East Coasters. All timestamps are Eastern Time. Here’s the latest on Day Two of the Winter Meetings:

7:23pm: Brian Cashman confirmed that pretty much every player on the roster has been asked about in trades this offseason except Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. No one has the guts to ask about Judge, eh? There were some bad contract-for-bad-contract swap talks involving Jacoby Ellsbury. “Money laundering,” Cashman called it. [Bryan Hoch]
4:35pm: The Yankees are one of three teams Manny Machado will visit, presumably after the Winter Meetings. It’s the Yankees, Phillies, and White Sox. Some #MysteryTeams are reportedly involved as well. [Jon Heyman]
4:32pm: Three-team trade talks between the Yankees, Mets, and Marlins are not progressing. The Mets are still pursuing J.T. Realmuto but it sounds they’re looking for ways to get it done without trading one of the best pitchers in baseball. [Jon Morosi]
11:46am: There’s a scenario in which the Yankees trade for J.T. Realmuto, have him split time at catcher and DH with Gary Sanchez, and move Giancarlo Stanton to the outfield. This strikes me as a “hey, Mets, if you don’t do this three-team deal soon we’re just going to keep Realmuto for ourselves” bluff, but we’ll see. [Joel Sherman]
11:41am: The Yankees remain interested in a reunion with Zach Britton. The expectation is his market will begin “narrowing down” by the end of the Winter Meetings, so nothing is imminent. Britton has said he’d like to return to the Yankees. [Brendan Kuty]
11:32am: J.A. Happ has several two-year offers in hand and is still looking for a third year. He’s indicated he’ll sign with the first team that offers that third guaranteed year. It’s been reported the Yankees won’t go there. [Jeff Passan]
10:55am: The Yankees are open to moving Miguel Andujar. That would make sense in the construct of this Syndergaard-Realmuto three-team trade. In theory, the Yankees could trade Andujar to a pitcher and then sign Manny Machado. [Ken Rosenthal]
9:30am: The Yankees and Reds had a “little talk” about second baseman Scooter Gennett. The left-handed hitting Gennett would be close to the ideal replacement for Didi Gregorius. The Reds want to trade him too, apparently. [Jon Heyman, Ken Rosenthal]
9:30am: Eleven teams initially showed interest in Sonny Gray and the Yankees have now pared the list down and are focusing on trade talks with a select few teams. “We haven’t found the sweet spot yet,” said Brian Cashman. [Joel Sherman]

The Reds reportedly want to trade Scooter Gennett and he’s a great fit for the Yankees

December 11, 2018 by Mike

In addition to pitching help, both another starter and relievers (plural), the Yankees also must find a Didi Gregorius replacement this offseason. Gregorius will miss an unknown length of time next year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and the Yankees need someone to fill in. They can pursue either a shortstop or a second baseman thank to Gleyber Torres and his versatility.

Reds second baseman Scooter Gennett is arguably the best second baseman on the trade market, and, according to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), Cincinnati would like to trade him. Gennett will be a free agent next offseason and GM Dick Williams recently told Mark Sheldon that the two sides are not close to a contract extension. The Reds aren’t close to an extension with anyone, Gennett or otherwise.

“I wouldn’t expect it before the calendar turns (to 2019). There’s too much up in the air in terms of roster construction going forward. I don’t think you’ll see us working on any extensions for anybody. That’s not just Scooter specific,” said Williams to Sheldon. “… In the sense that we always remain open to good deals, if we find one that we really like. Flexibility is important to us. We will be careful about a lot of extensions.”

For what it’s worth, Sheldon says the Reds are “not actively looking to trade” Gennett, though that doesn’t mean Rosenthal’s report is wrong and it doesn’t mean Sheldon’s report is wrong either. Both could be correct. The Reds could want to move Gennett without actively shopping him. He’s really good! Williams probably gets phone calls about Gennett all the time and doesn’t need to shop him. Interested teams come to him.

Earlier today the Yankees were connected to Gennett for the first time though I imagine they checked in long ago. Brian Cashman checks in on everyone. We know the Yankees and Reds have discussed Sonny Gray this offseason — the Yankees reportedly asked for top prospect Taylor Trammell, which was a nice try — and I’d be willing to bet Gennett’s name came up at some point. Not necessarily in a Gray-for-Gennett proposal. Just in general.

Anyway, with Gennett reportedly on the market — it makes sense that he would be if the two sides are not close to a contract extension — the Yankees should pursue him aggressively. A lot of contenders need second base help (Angels, Brewers, Dodgers, Nationals, Rockies) and once free agents start coming off the board, the Gennett bidding war could heat up, and that’s a bad thing for New York. A few more thoughts on this.

1. Gennett fits the lineup perfectly. The Yankees could use another left-handed hitter to balance out their righty heavy lineup, but, as far as I’m concerned, hitter quality should trump hitter handedness. I will happy take another quality right-handed hitter over a mediocre left-handed hitter who is in the lineup simply to provide balance.

Gennett is the best of both worlds. He’s a quality hitter and he’s a left-handed hitter. Offensively, Gennett posted near identical 2017 and 2018 seasons, and the end result was a .303/.351/.508 (124 wRC+) batting line with 50 homers in 1,135 plate appearances. A few more walks (6.3%) would be nice, but it’s hard to complain about that production. Gennett doesn’t strike out excessively (21.1%) and check out his spray chart:

Line drives to all fields with power to the pull side, something that is handsomely rewarded at Yankee Stadium. Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is a pretty good place to hit. It’s not Yankee Stadium though. Add in a playable .277/.317/.426 (96 wRC+) batting line against lefties and you’ve got a rock solid left-handed hitter who hits for average and hits for power, and would help balance the lineup. An ideal offensive pickup, really.

2. Gennett does offer some versatility. Although he is a natural second baseman, Gennett has moved around the field a little bit, most notably spending some time at third base and in the two corner outfield spots since joining the Reds. That would come in handy once Gregorius returns, though I am firmly in the “worry about that when the time comes” camp with Gregorius. Worry how the pieces fit once Sir Didi is healthy.

I think the Yankees should prioritize defense when looking for a Gregorius replacement. The numbers say Gennett is average to a tick below at second base and, well, that wouldn’t fit the whole “prioritize defense” idea, now would it? Given his bat though, I think you can overlook the less than stellar glovework, at least to some degree. I wouldn’t accept Miguel Andujar level defense at second base to get Gennett’s bat. But league average defense? That’ll do.

I should mention at some point that Gennett is only 28. He turns 29 in May. This isn’t a 31 or 32-year-old player we’re talking about here, someone at increased risk of age-related decline at the plate and in the field. Gennett is right smack in what should be the prime of his career and expecting another peak year from him in 2019 (say average-ish defense with a 120 wRC+ or thereabouts) doesn’t strike me as unreasonable at all.

3. The Yankees might recoup a draft pick after the season. Gennett will become a free agent next offseason and, if he repeats his 2017-18 efforts in 2019, he would at worst be a serious qualifying offer candidate. Marwin Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu, and Jed Lowrie will shed some light on this. Their contracts this winter will help set Gennett’s market next offseason.

The perfect world scenario has the Yankees trading for Gennett, getting a great season from him, then making him the qualifying offer and scoring a draft pick to help replenish the farm system. Chances are that won’t happen though. There’s so much that can go wrong between now and then. Consider the free agent compensation rules:

Gennett signs a contract worth $50M+: Yankees get a supplemental first round pick.
Gennett signs a contract worth less than $50M: Yankees get a supplemental second round pick.
Yankees pay luxury tax in 2019: Yankees get a supplemental fourth round pick no matter what.

There’s also the possibility Gennett accepts the qualifying offer. Neil Walker hit .282/.347/.476 (124 wRC+) with 23 homers during his age 30 season with the Mets in 2016 and he accepted the $17.2M qualifying offer. Given the last two years, 2019 Scooter Gennett could put up very similar numbers to 2016 Neil Walker at a similar age, and next winter the qualifying offer might be over $19M. Accepting it is a very real possibility.

Point is, there is a scenario in which the Yankees recoup a high draft pick when Gennett become a free agent next winter. I think the chances of that are quite small, but it is possible, and it should factor into the trade calculus. Ultimately, the Yankees are in win now mode, and I think the priority has to be what Gennett can do for them on the field. If they get a draft pick after the season, great. If not, so be it.

4. The Reds have made some very bad decisions lately. Most notably, the Reds got nothing for Zack Cozart. The guy hit .297/.385/.548 (140 wRC+) with 24 homers and Gold Glove defense in 2017 and the 94-loss Reds did not cash him in as a trade chip. They kept him all year, didn’t make him the qualifying offer after the season, and watched Cozart walk away as a free agent for zero return. Brutal. Just brutal.

Also, the Reds rejected trade overtures for the fun but ultimately not very valuable Billy Hamilton the last few years, only to non-tender him last week. They also pulled Matt Harvey back on trade waivers (the Brewers claimed him) in August and didn’t trade him. Harvey’s a free agent now. Cozart is the most egregious mistake here but these are three players who generated trade interest who the Reds instead let go for nothing. Goodness.

On one hand, I’d like to think the Reds learned from those mistakes and are determined not to repeat them with Gennett. On the other hand, the Hamilton non-tender was literally eleven days ago, so maybe not. Cincinnati’s front office doesn’t really seem to have its act together. Perhaps they don’t understand Gennett’s true value and thus sell him short. It would be pretty rad if the the Yankees can benefit from one of those very bad Reds decisions.

* * *

There is at least one “what about Sonny Gray for Scooter Gennett?” question in the mailbag inbox each week and no. Just no. Gennett is actually good. Gray was good once upon a time but not this past season. Also, Gennett is actually good. Did I mention that part? The Reds have made some bad moves lately but even they have to realize trading one year of their All-Star second baseman for one year of a reclamation project starter is a bad idea. If they’re open to it, the Yankees should do it and yell “no trade backsies” as quickly as possible.

That doesn’t mean Gray can’t be part of a Gennett trade package, however. Last offseason’s Andrew McCutchen trade seems like decent enough framework for a Gennett trade. McCutchen certainly had a superior track record to Gennett, but, at the time of the trade, he was essentially a +3 WAR player with one year and $14.75M on his contract. Gennett is a +3 WAR player now who MLBTR projects to make $10.7M in his final year of team control. Not a perfect match but I think we’re in the ballpark.

The Giants gave up a big league reliever (Kyle Crick) and a non-top 100 prospect (Bryan Reynolds) to get McCutchen. Would Gray and a non-top 100 prospect (Domingo Acevedo? Mike King? Clarke Schmidt?) be enough to get Gennett? Maybe. The difference here is McCutchen’s market was fairly limited. A lot of teams — a lot of contenders — could be after Gennett. No matter the cost, it’s worth finding out. Realistically, Gennett may be the best option to replace Gregorius aside from signing Manny Machado.

Scouting the Trade Market: The Cincinnati Reds

January 8, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

The Reds are entering their third full season of rebuilding in 2018, a course of action that began in earnest when they dealt Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake at the 2015 trade deadline. Over the next year they sent Aroldis Chapman, Todd Frazier, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips packing, allowing the youth movement to begin. They still have a significant amount of work to do, though, with needs all over the field. And with stud third-base prospect Nick Senzel knocking on the door, they may be best-served dealing from their modest infield stockpile to fill some of those needs.

Let’s take a look, shall we?

Scooter Gennett

Scooter Gennett briefly became a household name on June 6, 2017, when he hit four home runs in a game against the St. Louis Cardinals:

He was just the 17th player in MLB history to go deep four times in a game, and he may have been the unlikeliest of any of the players who did so (well, him or Pat Seerey). Heading into that game, Gennett was a career .279/.317/.422 hitter, with 38 home runs in 1637 AB (a rate of one home run per 43.1 AB); and it isn’t as though he showed power in the minors either, as he had 28 HR in 1986 MiLB AB. But I digress.

Gennett, who was picked-up by the Reds on waivers just days before the season began, was hitting a respectable .270/.308/.450 (95 wRC+) before making his way into history – and that’s not too far removed from his career norms when adjusted a bit for the juiced ball. That historical day presaged bigger things for him, though, as he hit .293/.344/.516 (121 wRC+) with 20 HR in 345 AB from June 7 forward. All told, he hit .295/.342/.531 (124 wRC+) with 27 HR on the season. And this, in just 497 PA.

Is there something to the breakout beyond the juiced ball? Maybe. Prior to that fateful day, Gennett hit 33.4% of his batted balls in the air, and pulled 34.3%. From June 6 forward, however, he had a 39.1% flyball rate, and a 42.5% pull rate, both of which represent sizable increases. It’s a small sample size, to be sure – but, given what we know about the flyball revolution within the game, it stands to reason that he changed his approach over time, and embraced it.

With over 2,000 PA under his belt, Gennett is a .283/.323/.446 (103 wRC+) hitter entering his age-28 season. That is weighted quite heavily by his breakout (or fluke) 2017, but he has been average-ish or better in three of his four full seasons.

Contract Status: Arbitration eligible; under team control through 2019.

Position(s): Primarily 2B (4104 innings); 3B (71 innings in 2017); LF (55 innings in 2017); RF (41.1 innings in 2017)

Is there a catch? Aside from the possibility that this is a massive fluke from a player that was waived by the Brewers in March? Yes – he’s not a very good second-baseman. He has -5.2 UZR/150 at the keystone for his career, and DRS has him at -4 per 150. He’s played other positions sparingly, so those numbers aren’t worth digging into all that much … but they’re not good, either.

Jose Peraza

Peraza was the prize of the deal that sent Todd Frazier to the White Sox back in the winter of 2015, as a consensus top-100 prospect at an up the middle position (though, the precise position was still up in the air). He did well in his first season in the Reds organization, slashing .281/.333/.375 (104 wRC+) with 2 HR and 10 SB in half a season at Triple-A, and earning a call up in mid-May. Peraza batted .324/.352/.411 (103 wRC+) with 3 HR and 21 SB in 256 PA at the highest level, and seemingly secured his place in the Reds future.

Unfortunately, Peraza struggled tremendously in 2017, batting just .259/.297/.324 (62 wRC+) with 5 HR and 23 SB in his first full season in the majors. He found himself on the bench a few times in deference to Gennett and the since-departed Zack Cozart, and it’s difficult to blame the Reds for that – even if he spent most of the season as a 23-year-old. He shuffled between second and short all season, too, with better numbers at the former (6.6 UZR/150 versus -8.7). And now, with Cozart in Los Angeles, the Reds are rumored to be interested in finding a shortstop of the future.

Does this mean that Peraza has fallen out of favor? Or are the Reds trying to motivate him? It might be a bit of both. What we do know is that Peraza will turn 24 in April, and that he possesses excellent base-running skills and the ability to play both second and short (he drew praise for his defense at both, though he always seemed best-suited for second due to a middling arm).

Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; under team control through 2022.

Position(s): Split between 2B (721.2 innings) and SS (672.1 innings)

Is there a catch? Peraza has never been one for patience at the plate. His BB% was below 5% in the minors, and it has been just 3.6% in the majors. There’s a lot of upside here, but he has a lot of work to get there – and the Reds may still expect quite a bit given his age, pedigree, and moderate success in 2016.

Eugenio Suarez

A few years ago, Suarez was viewed as a slick fielding shortstop with questionable hitting ability, albeit with a shot at double-digit home runs and steals. He was traded to the Reds for Alfredo Simon prior to the 2015 season, and there were immediate signs that that wasn’t an accurate portrait of the player. He hit 13 HR in just 372 AB with the Reds in 2015, and posted a -19.3 UZR/150 and -12 DRS 841.1 innings at short. Suarez was moved to third base in 2016, and he continued to hit for power (21 HR in 565 AB), but his overall production was a bit disappointing.

And then everything seemed to click.

Suarez slashed .260/.367/.461 (117 wRC+) with 26 HR in 2017, and both UZR (5.8) and DRS (5) loved his defense at the hot corner. He was somewhat hot and cold from month-to-month, but the sum of everything was good for 4.1 fWAR. And the fact that he increased his walks dramatically (from 8.1% to 13.3%) while cutting his strikeouts a bit (from 24.7% to 23.3%) is a terrific sign.

So why is the 26-year-old even here? Simple – Suarez plays the same position as the team’s top prospect, who is close to ready for a shot, and he’s entering arbitration. Of course, there’s also a rumor that the Reds might deal him if he won’t sign an extension, which kind of cuts both ways.

Contract Status: Arbitration eligible; under team control through 2020.

Position(s): Primarily 3B (2620.2 innings)

Is there a catch? Suarez is sure to be costly. Otherwise, 2017 looks fairly repeatable, given the flashes of potential in 2015 and 2016.

The Reds are looking for shortstop help, and pitching is the organization’s biggest issue on the whole. That could make the Yankees a reasonable match in a vacuum – Thairo Estrada, Domingo Acevedo, Luis Medina, Dillon Tate, and Domingo German are all outside of the team’s top-five prospects, and could conceivably be good fits in a deal. My trade proposal sucks, though, so I won’t go much further than that.

I’m not too interested in Peraza as a reclamation project, unless he comes dirt cheap. He doesn’t fit the Yankees semi-win now mode, after all. That leaves Gennett and Suarez, both of whom I’m interested in. The flyball heavy, pull-happy, lefty-swinging Gennett could feast in Yankee Stadium, even if he regresses a bit – and I can’t imagine the Reds demanding too much, given his track record. Suarez, though, seems far safer, with more upside on both sides of the ball … and that’s why he’d undoubtedly cost a sizable return. But, if you squint, you can kind of see a poor man’s Manny Machado for significantly less in terms of talent and money.