Yusei Kikuchi Archives - Page 2 of 2

The Yankees and Yusei Kikuchi’s impending free agency

April 20, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

The next big name Japanese pitcher is preparing to jump to MLB. Jon Heyman reports Seibu Lions left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, arguably the best pitcher in Japan in Year One post-Shohei Ohtani, is expected to be posted after the season, though of course nothing is set in stone. “He’s coming,” said one source to Heyman.

Kikuchi, 26, has allowed eight runs in three starts and 21 innings in the early going this season. Last year he threw 187.2 innings with a 1.97 ERA and a 217/49 K/BB, and from 2015-17, Kikuchi threw 463.2 innings with a 2.41 ERA and a very good 24.9% strikeout rate. His walk rate (9.1%) was a touch high. Unlike Ohtani, Kikuchi is a one-way player. He’s a pitcher only.

Obviously there’s a long way to go between now and the offseason, but whenever a highly regarded young pitcher is preparing to make the jump from Japan to MLB, he’s worth discussing. Let’s talk out the Yankees and the looming Kikuchi situation.

1. He’s already met with the Yankees once before. Back in 2009, Kikuchi was considering following in Junichi Tazawa’s footsteps, and signing with an MLB team right out of high school. He met with a few big league teams at the time, including the Yankees. Kikuchi ultimately decided to remain in Japan, but he does have a bit of a history with the Yankees. There’s some history here.

2. He’s not subject to the international bonus pools. Kikuchi is already 26, so he is free to sign a guaranteed Major League contract of any size. It’ll be a straight bidding war. No need to trade for bonus pool space or anything like that. The Yankees could flex their financial muscle and outbid everyone else. Kikuchi does have to be posted, and the posting rules changes last year. Here is the release fee structure:

Contract worth $25M or less: 20% of total contract value.
Contract worth $25M to $50M: $5M plus 17.5% of contract value over $25M.
Contract worth $50M or more: $9.375M plus 15% of contract value over $50M.

Got all that? Under the old posting system the player’s team in Japan set the release fee at whatever amount, up to a $20M maximum. Now, if Kikuchi were to sign a $100M contract, the release feel would be $16.875M. MLB keeps renegotiating the posting system and the NPB teams keep getting less.

3. Kikuchi’s stuff is legit. While he’s no Ohtani, Kikuchi is pretty impressive himself, with a mid-90s heater and three secondary pitchers that all grade out well. Dennis Lin (subs. req’d) has more:

(The) makings of a quality major-league starter are there. Kikuchi’s fastball is consistently in the mid-90s. His curveball, slider and splitter all rate as average or slightly better. “He is a good one,” one scout wrote in a text. “Has not been real durable, but stuff is solid.”

Injuries, specifically a series of shoulder issues, held Kikuchi back earlier in his career. He averaged 131 innings per season from 2012-16 — his high was 143 innings in 2016 — before staying healthy and throwing a career best 187.2 innings last year. A history of shoulder problems is scary, but Kikuchi hasn’t needed surgery, and he was healthy during his most recent season. Here’s some video:

4. The Yankees are going to need pitching. I mean, duh. Every team always needs pitching. The Yankees could certainly use some right now! Who knows what things will look like come the offseason — I’d be very surprised if the Yankees didn’t add a starter before the trade deadline — but chances are the Yankees will be in the market for a starter next winter. How about a 26-year-old southpaw with strikeout stuff?

The Yankees obviously aren’t opposed to spending big on a Japanese pitcher. They signed Kei Igawa (and got burned), they signed Masahiro Tanaka (has mostly worked out), and they were ready to make a major run at Ohtani before learning he wouldn’t even listed to their pitch. The Yankees scouted Tanaka and Ohtani a very long time before deciding to take the plunge, partly because they didn’t do enough homework with Igawa.

We haven’t heard Kikuchi connected to the Yankees or any team yet this year, though I’m sure it’s only a matter of time before we start hearing about scouting trips and all that. As good as he is, Kikuchi is not a generational talent like Ohtani, and he doesn’t offer the same sort of track record as Tanaka. That doesn’t mean the Yankees won’t or shouldn’t go after him. It just means Kikuchi is his own person. With the Yankees likely to be in the market for pitching, he’s someone we figure to hear quite a bit about in the coming weeks and months.

Mailbag: Other top NPB players who could come to MLB

December 30, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

The mailbag inbox was pretty empty this week thanks to the holidays. That’s okay, because every so often we get a great question that is worth its own post, and that was the case this week. So, rather than the usual multi-question format, we’ve got one question and one big answer this week. RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com is the place to send us questions.

Dan asks: Are there any other players on the Japanese market besides Otani that we can be excited about in the future?

There are definitely a few, but none come close to Shohei Otani in terms of potential big league impact. He is truly in a class all by himself right now. Otani is the best player in Japan and has the tools to be an ace-caliber pitcher in MLB, if not a reliable hitter as well. I’m curious to see if a team will let him hit and pitch when the time comes. That just might be what it takes to sign him.

Anyway, most of the top talent in Japan in terms of big league potential is on the mound right now. These things to tend to be cyclical, and right now there are more high-end arms than high-end bats. Check back in a few years and the opposite will probably be true. So, with that in mind, here are five non-Otani players in Nippon Pro Baseball who could interest MLB teams in the near future. This isn’t a comprehensive list. It’s just a few of the most notable. The players are listed alphabetically.

RHP Kohei Arihara

Arihara, 24, just finished his second season with the Nippon Ham Fighters, during which he had a 2.94 ERA with 103 strikeouts (16.1 K%) and 38 walks (5.9 BB%) in 22 starts and 156 innings. He runs his fastball up to 96 mph and uses a wide array of offspeed pitches, and while nothing he throws is a truly dominant offering, Arihara has good command and really knows how to pitch.

Arihara has gotten plenty of extra scouting exposure recently as Otani’s teammate. Once he gets some more experience under his belt — he missed time in college with elbow injury, which is obviously a red flag — Arihara will be a candidate to come over to MLB. His upside may be limited, but there’s a chance for mid-rotation production here.

RHP Shintaro Fujinami

Back in 2012, Otani and Fujinami were the top two prospects in the NPB draft, and plenty of folks at the time preferred Fujinami because his secondary pitchers were more advanced. Otani went first overall — Fujinami was selected by four teams in the first round, then was awarded to the Hanshin Tigers after a lottery drawing (the NPB draft is weird) — and has since developed into the better NPB player and MLB prospect, but Fujinami is damn good himself.

The 22-year-old Fujinami had a 3.25 ERA in 26 starts and 169 innings in 2016, striking out 176 (24.0 K%) and walking 70 (9.6 BB%). Control has been his biggest issue — he’s walked 9.2% of batters faced in his four NPB seasons — but he misses plenty of bats with a 92-95 mph fastball, a mid-80s splitter, and a low-80s slider. His 221 strikeouts a year ago were by far the most in the Central League, Japan’s non-DH league. Only one other player had more than 175 strikeouts. (Randy Messenger had 194.)

Fujinami is widely considered the second best MLB prospect in Japan, but he’s in the same boat as Otani. He’s only 22, which means he’ll be subject to the international hard cap for the next three years. Also, Fujinami is five years away from qualifying for international free agency, so he’ll have to go through the posting system to come over at any point before the 2021-22 offseason. It’s not only Otani who is getting screwed over by the hard cap.

LHP Yusei Kikuchi

A few years ago Kikuchi, now 25, was considering jumping to MLB straight out of high school, which would have been unprecedented. (Junichi Tazawa was undrafted out of high school, played one year in a Japanese independent league, then chose to forego NPB for MLB.) NPB doesn’t like the idea of the best young Japanese players not playing in Japan, so nowadays anyone who signs with an MLB team out of high school is banned from NPB for at least three years. Not surprisingly, no one has done it.

Anyway, Kikuchi has spent the last six seasons with the Seibu Lions and has career has been up and down, mostly due to shoulder problems. He had a 2.58 ERA with 127 strikeouts (21.3 K%) and 67 walks (11.3 K%) in 22 starts and 143 innings this past season, though the blazing mid-to-upper-90s fastball that made him such a hot commodity as a teenager now resides mostly in the low-90s. Kikuchi relies on his three offspeed pitches (curveball, slider, changeup) to get most of his outs these days.

It’s no secret Kikuchi wants to come over to MLB at some point — he met with several clubs, including the Yankees, back in 2009 when he considered coming over after high school — and since he’s 25, the international hard cap won’t apply to him. It’s up to Seibu to post him because he’s still three years from international free agency. Kikuchi is not the tippy top MLB prospect he was a few years ago, but lefties who can miss bats are always going to get a look.

RHP Takahiro Norimoto

Three years ago the 26-year-old Norimoto took over as staff ace of the Rakuten Golden Eagles after Masahiro Tanaka left via the posting system. His last two seasons have been eerily similar:

	IP	ERA	Strikeouts	Walks	Homers
2015	194.2	2.91	215 (26.9%)	48 (6.0%)	14 (0.65 HR/9)
2016	195	2.91	216 (26.3%)	50 (6.1%)	12 (0.55 HR/9)

Freaky. Norimoto has big stuff but not big size. He’s listed at 5-foot-10 and 178 lbs., and fair or not, teams are always wary of undersized righties. Durability is a concern, and so is fastball plane. Teams worry short pitchers will be fly ball and home run prone because they can’t pitch downhill. Still, Norimoto has a mid-90s fastball and can miss bats with both his splitter and slider. That’ll play.

Norimoto signed a three-year extension worth $1.72M per season last month, so he’s not coming over to MLB anytime soon. That’s a shame. He wouldn’t have been subject to any international spending restrictions because of his age. Not the bonus pools this signing period or the hard cap that takes effect next signing period. Womp womp. Norimoto will be 29 before he’s eligible to come over to MLB.

IF Tetsuto Yamada

Over the last three years, and especially the last two, Yamada has established himself as one of the most dominant hitters in Japan. Last season he hit .329/.416/.610 with 38 home runs and 34 stolen bases en route to being named Central League MVP. He was the first player in NPB history to win both the home run and stolen base titles. Yamada also had a Reggie Jackson moment in the postseason, swatting three home runs in three consecutive plate appearances in Game Three of the Japan Series.

This past season the 24-year-old Yamada managed a .304/.425/.607 batting line with 38 homers and 30 stolen bases for the Yakult Swallows. He’s a right-handed hitter with tremendous bat speed and quick twitch athleticism, plus he knows how to control the strike zone (17.2 K% and 14.4 BB% from 2015-16). While going 30-30 in the big leagues might not happen, Yamada has 20-20 potential, which would be pretty damn valuable from a good defensive middle infielder. (Reports indicate he fits best at second.)

Yamada has supposedly expressed interest in coming over to MLB, and since he’ll turn 25 in July, he won’t be subject to the international hard cap next offseason. The Swallows can post him and Yamada can sign a contract of any size. Unless the posting agreement gets changed again, that is. MLB seems to like making it difficult for top overseas players to play in their league for whatever reason.

It’s worth noting most of the biggest busts among Japanese players in MLB have been infielders (Kaz Matsui, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, etc.), and I’ve seen speculation that the game is so much faster here that infielders have a tough time adjusting, and their defensive issues carry over at the plate. Who knows whether that’s true. There’s risk with every signing, and it is fair to wonder whether Yamada’s big leg kick will play over here. My guess is some team will bet millions on his power-speed combination.

* * *

The Yankees have shown they will get involved in the Japanese market if there’s a player they really like, though they’re going to do their homework first. They won’t rush into anything like they did with Kei Igawa again. Otani is clearly the best Japan has to offer for a few years. Others like Fujinami and Norimoto are intriguing, though they face obstacles coming over (hard cap for Fujinami, contract extension for Norimoto).

Yamada could end up being a very big deal next offseason, assuming the Swallows agree to post him for MLB teams, which is far from a given. Middle infielders in their mid-20s with power and speed are always in demand. Even with Didi Gregorius and Starlin Castro up the middle, plus a ton of shortstop prospects in the system, the Yankees may get involved should Yamada be posted. Third base is a question long-term and Yamada could help solve that (Yamada at second, Castro to third?).

Kikuchi staying in Japan

October 25, 2009 by Mike 16 Comments

Highly touted Japanese lefty Yusei Kikuchi is staying in Japan, though the official announcement is still to come. Kikuchi spoke to the Yankees at some point in the last week, as well as six other MLB clubs, before making his decision. The teenager is expected to be the first overall pick in the NPB draft later this week. Ben went through all the trouble of profiling the kid last week.

Aroldis Chapman, come on down.

Linkage: Chapman, Kikuchi, HOF, PitchFX

October 22, 2009 by Mike 108 Comments

A bevy of links that warrant a mention, but not their own posts…

As you’ve probably heard by now, Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman is in New York to visit with several GM’s. Both the Yankees and Mets are expected to meet with him, and the Red Sox definitely will. Speculation is that he’ll get $40-50M, but I bet he ends with closer to $15M. In the end, he’s still just a minor league pitcher that’s a year or two away from the big leagues.
In other amateur lefthanded pitcher news, Japanese teenager Yusei Kikuchi may announce his intentions to either stay in Japan or come to the States in the coming days. Ben wrote a bunch more about Kikuchi and the Yanks over the weekend.
Who do you think is a better Hall of Fame candidate: Johnny Damon, or Bobby Abreu? Rob Neyer thinks it’s Damon, I’m going with Bobby. There’s only 40 players in the history of the game that have reached base 4,000 times in their career, and 38 of those players are in the HOF, or will be soon. Abreu should reach that total within three years.
This isn’t Yankee related, but it’s a great piece on Cardinals assistant GM John Abbamondi, who discusses the place of advanced analysis in baseball. Nick Steiner at THT highlights part of the article where Abbamondi talks about how they use PitchFX data to supplement the evaluations of their scouts. Fascinating stuff.

Yanks on Kikuchi’s U.S. itinerary

October 14, 2009 by Benjamin Kabak 125 Comments

yuseikikuchi Yusei Kikuchi is The Next Big Thing to come out of Japan. An 18-year-old prep star, Kikuchi could join Junichi Tazawa as a Japanese player who skips the Nippon Professional Baseball league to come straight to the Majors, and although the Yankees are going to be preoccupied with the Angels over the next 10 days, the team, according to reports, is going to meet with Kikuchi next week.

Via MLBTR, NPB Tracker reports on Kikuchi’s recruitment schedule. This week, he will meet with Japanese teams as his hometown league attempts to convince him not to jump the puddle for the Majors. After meeting with the NPB reps, Kikuchi will meet with the Giants, Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Rangers, Mariners and Indians.

If Kikuchi leaves Japan, he will be the second big-name pitcher to head straight to the States in two years, and the NPB could be facing a severe young talent drain as more kids look to Major League Baseball for a more international stage and a quicker payday. Patrick Newman at NBP Tracker wonders if the Nippon leagues will look to collude with Kikuchi to ensure that he is drafted by the team of his choice and stays in Japan.

With Kikuchi coverage ramping up, Newman also published a scouting report on the young left-hander. He seems to be a smart kid with a good head on his shoulders, and he throws between 87-96 mph. Generally, his fastball sits low in the zone at around 90. Keep in mind that he is also just 18 and will probably add a bit of velocity as he fills out.

It will be interesting to see how the Kikuchi sweepstakes shake down. As young undrafted kids look across the Pacific, international baseball could be gearing up for a sea change, and the Majors may soon enjoy a stream of young talent from Japan. After the Yanks opted against going after Tazawa last year on the grounds of honoring the NPB draft, it’s intriguing to see them in the mix on Kikuchi. Perhaps they think higher of him than they did of Tazawa.

Feel free to use this as a discussion on the merits of international poaching of young players or use it as your regularly scheduled open thread. Oh, and today is Joe Girardi’s birthday. So a happy 45th to the Yanks’ skipper. You know the drill; play nice.