River Avenue Blues

End of the Year Thoughts

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(Newsday)

By the end of today, we’ll have made it five days without Yankee baseball happening or to even look forward to. It’s a long way till February and with the LCS’s going on and the World Series on the horizon, it feels even longer. To keep you warm–or cold, depending on how much you’ve recovered from the abrupt end to the season–here are some thoughts.

A Fitting End

The end of the Yankees’ season felt a little bit like the season itself. All year, this was a very good team; it won 100 games, despite what browsing Twitter might make you think. But given the great success and the home run record, the Red Sox had and moments of frustration, it seemed like this team was just one step shy of great. Game three’s disaster aside, the Yankees were close (or winning re: game two) in their losses, and had chances to win, to be great. At times this year, the team was great and probably will be going forward. While this year ended with disappointment, it wasn’t a failure by any means. Next year, however, the expectations should be ramped up a bit more. An ALDS loss in 2019 would be way more disappointing than it was this year.

Sonny Gone Gray

Before this year started, I thought Sonny Gray was going to have a big year. He had some good peripherals in his time as a Yankee in 2017 and he had–still has–great talent. But this year, it just never happened. Any time it looked like he was going to get on a roll, he fell flat on his face again. Despite how hard I rooted for him, I don’t think I’ve ever been more wrong about a player than I was about Sonny Gray in 2018.

During the year-end press conference, GM Brian Cashman didn’t do much to obscure the fact that the Yankees are going to look for trades involving Gray, which is too bad. Sonny seems like a really good guy and took his lumps this year without much noise.

Looking back, it seems that the trade to bring Gray to New York isn’t really working out for anyone, unless Dustin Fowler really turns it on in 2019. Even then, this was a smart trade to make and I’m glad the Yankees did. The process was good even if the results haven’t been. I want to say haven’t been ‘yet,’ still hopeful for some value from Gray, but it doesn’t look like that’s ever gonna happen. A trade is likely the right thing to do here, even if the Yankees don’t get an exact match on value.

Fantasy Roster

With the news of Didi Gregorius’ impending Tommy John Surgery, we all got a little sad. Then, our minds began to wander towards Manny Machado for obvious reasons. The fact that the Yankees are back in a position to spend big also helped that fantasizing, which led to more and more fantasies, like Bryce Harper. I’m on record as saying I’m skeptical that the Yankees will spend big again, but after narrowly missing the World Series in 2017 and getting eliminated early this year, hopefully they pull a 2008-2009 and push themselves over the edge. I let my mind run a little wild with the possibilities and came up with this roster-bated squad that would start the year in Didi’s absence:

C: Gary Sanchez

1B: Miguel Andujar

2B: Jed Lowrie

3B: Manny Machado

SS: Gleyber Torres

LF: Bryce Harper

CF: Aaron Hicks

RF: Aaron Judge

DH: Giancarlo Stanton

BN: Austin Romine, Clint Frazier, Ronald Torreyes, Luke Voit or Greg Bird

SP: Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Patrick Corbin, JA Happ, CC Sabathia

RP: Dellin Betances, Chad Green, David Robertson, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Stephen Tarpley

CP: Aroldis Chapman

To quote Doctors Jan Itor and Chris Turk, not gonna happen. The chances that the Yankees sign seven free agents (counting CC + Happ + Robertson) is pretty slim, even if they do have bucks to throw around. Additionally, there would definitely be a roster crunch when Didi returned, and I doubt Jed Lowrie would settle for what would be a supersub role come the second half, unless he were paid exorbitantly. Were this to happen, though, you’d put Gleyber back at second, Didi at short, and Lowrie would take Toe’s spot on the bench.

Again, something this drastic won’t happen, but it’d be a lot cooler if it did.

Saturday Links: Severino, Corbin, Kikuchi, Stanton

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(Getty)

This is one of my least favorite times of the year. The Yankees have been eliminated but other teams are still playing baseball. Sucks. Anyway, here are some notes to check out.

Yankees believe Severino was tipping pitches

According to Jon Heyman, several people with the Yankees believe Luis Severino was tipping his pitches in Game Three of the ALDS earlier this week. “The Red Sox had his pitches,” said one Yankees official. Heyman adds the Yankees heard “chatter” from Red Sox people about Severino tipping his pitches, presumably after the series. Ben Harris (subs. req’d) found evidence of the pitch-tipping. With a runner on second, Severino would pause to look at third base when throwing a fastball, even when there was no runner at third base to check. Huh.

There has been on-and-off speculation about Severino tipping his pitches for weeks now. Basically the entire second half. I usually shrug at this stuff because it seems every time a good pitcher struggles, the first explanation is “he must be tipping his pitches.” It’s possible Severino was tipping! I mean, Harris found evidence of it. That said, tipping pitches doesn’t explain the decline in velocity, the crummy command, and the sudden lack of bite on his slider. Tipping pitches would be the best possible outcome here. That is an easy fix, theoretically. It seems to me something else was going on though.

Yankees expected to pursue Corbin

We can file this under no duh: The Yankees are expected to pursue free agent lefty Patrick Corbin this offseason, reports Heyman. They’ve been after him for a while — the Yankees tried to get him at the Winter Meetings last year — and Corbin is a native (upstate) New Yorker who has been pretty open about wanting to play for the Yankees. This isn’t the first time we’ve heard the Yankees like Corbin and it won’t be the last.

Corbin, 29, just wrapped up his best season in the big leagues. He threw 200 innings on the nose with a 3.15 ERA (2.47 FIP) and excellent strikeout (30.8%), walk (6.0%), and ground ball (48.5%) rates. His home run rate dropped from 1.30 HR/9 (16.6 HR/FB%) from 2016-17 to 0.68 HR/9 (11.1 HR/FB%) in 2019. Also, weirdly enough, Corbin was second in MLB in hard contact allowed. That’s generally a bad thing. We’re going to look at Corbin more in-depth at some point for sure. I think 2018 was likely his career year. I also think that he’s very good, that he’s the best starting pitcher on the free agent market, and that he would unquestionably make the Yankees better.

Kikuchi will be posted


The Seibu Lions in Japan will indeed post southpaw Yusei Kikuchi this offseason, report Sankei Sports and Sports Hochi. Kikuchi has not been posted yet. He can’t be posted until after the World Series. Technically, he can only be posted between November 1st and December 5th. Once he’s posted, he gets a 30-day window to negotiate with any and all MLB teams, and the signing team pays Seibu a release fee. Here’s the new release fee system:

  • Contract worth $25M or less: 20% of total guarantee
  • Contract worth $25M and $50M: $5M plus 17.5% of amount over $25M
  • Contract worth $50M: $9.375M plus 15% of amount over $50M

The Yankees have reportedly been scouting Kikuchi. The 27-year-old threw 163.2 innings with a 3.08 ERA and a 23.4% strikeout rate this past season, and that’s in a league with an 18.9% average strikeout rate. (The MLB strikeout rate was 22.3% in 2018.) Kikuchi has a history of arm problems and he’s not considered a potential ace on par with Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, and Shohei Ohtani when they were posted. He is quite good though, and he is only 27, and the Yankees need starters. The Kikuchi situation will be something to watch this offseason.

Stanton among finalists for Hank Aaron Award

Earlier this month MLB announced each team’s finalist for the 2018 Hank Aaron Award, which is given annually the top hitter in each league. Giancarlo Stanton is the Yankees’ finalist. Here are all 30 finalists. The winner will be announced during the World Series and is selected through a combination of fan and media voting. (The fan voting closed already. Sorry I didn’t pass along the link sooner.)

The Hank Aaron Award was introduced in 1999 and so far only two Yankees have won it: Derek Jeter (2006, 2009) and Alex Rodriguez (2007). Would’ve have guessed Jeter won it twice and A-Rod once, but here we are. Stanton won the Hank Aaron Award in 2014 and 2017 with the Marlins. The Hank Aaron Award tends to favor old school stats like hits and runs and batted in. My guess is J.D. Martinez or Mike Trout will win it in the American League.

End-of-Season Notes: Gray, Sabathia, Coaching Staff

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In case you missed it earlier, Didi Gregorius will undergo Tommy John surgery. He suffered the injury at some point during the first two games of the ALDS and played with it the rest of the series. That really stinks. Poor Didi. Here are some other notes from Aaron Boone’s and Brian Cashman’s end-of-season press conferences today:

  • Gray’s getting traded. Cashman was unusually candid about the Sonny Gray situation. “I think we’ll enter the winter, unfortunately, open-minded to a relocation. To maximize his abilities, it would more likely be best somewhere else,” said the GM. Cashman added they’re willing to keep Gray next year, but only because he has to say that to maintain some semblance of trade leverage. Sure seems like Sonny is as good as gone.
  • Sabathia has knee surgery. For the third consecutive offseason, CC Sabathia underwent a cleanup procedure on is right knee earlier this week. It is part of his regular maintenance routine now. It’s a relatively minor procedure and Sabathia will be ready in time for Spring Training. Of course, he’s a free agent now, so who knows where he’ll be reporting to camp.
  • The coaching staff remains. Cashman said he anticipates the coaching staff remaining intact. He didn’t mention this, but bench coach Josh Bard and third base coach Phil Nevin could get managerial interviews elsewhere, which could force a coaching change. Otherwise the Yankees plan to stay status quo.

Free agency and the offseason are still a few weeks away, and Cashman said the Yankees will begin their annual pro scouting meetings soon. Sir Didi’s injury really throws a wrench into things.

Mailbag: Boone, Voit, Third Base, Kahnle, Torres, Left Field

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It has been an exceedingly busy year for Mike, due to his non-stop work here and his commitments over at CBS, so I figured that I’d try my hand at tackling your mailbag questions this week. As always, you can continue to send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com. Let’s do it to it.

(Getty)

Many asks: So what happens with Aaron Boone now?

As cliché as it may be to say this, I cannot help but feel that Boone is quite lucky that George Steinbrenner isn’t in charge nowadays. The Yankees did not execute well-enough to win a couple of close games, and the blowout loss was inexcusable on every level – but the manager’s job is to put his team in the best position to win, and Boone failed to do so in back-to-back games. And he failed spectacularly, too. I don’t think The Boss would have brought him back for another season.

With the current administration, however, I would be utterly shocked if Boone wasn’t back next season. Cashman and Co. clearly love his ability to manage interpersonal relationships in the clubhouse, and they knew the risks of hiring a manager straight out of the announcer’s booth. I’m sure that they’re disappointed, and I’m sure that Boone’s exit interview will focus quite a bit on his decision-making – but he’ll be on the Yankees bench next year, with no adjustments to his leash.

Segundo asks: Seeing Luke Voit playing with all this swagger is very refreshing. Can’t remember the last Yankee who played like this and was productive (Ricky Henderson?). I think he should get the first base job from day 1 next year. Thoughts? What do you think his numbers will look like if he gets 600 plate appearances

I’m a fan of Voit’s swagger, too, but I think you’re underselling this team as a whole. It comes in all shapes and sizes throughout the roster, but Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, CC Sabathia, and Ronald Torreyes all have quite a bit of swagger. Voit stands out, though, because he came out of nowhere with it – and he looks kind of like Billy Butler.

And I’d agree that he’s the best in-house option for first base as of today; I don’t think it’s possible for me to be more down on Greg Bird than I am right now. I wouldn’t expect Voit to do anything remotely close to what he did this year, though. I think the best-case scenario is probably something along the lines of what Justin Smoak did this year – .250/.350/.460 with 25 home runs or so. I’d take that in a heartbeat.

Kelan asks: You mentioned potentially upgrading the corner infield defense this offseason. Outside of maybe the obvious, sign Machado and either trade Andujar or maybe try him at first, what do you see as the most realistic options?

I’ll answer this with two caveats. The first is obvious – I’m not Mike. I’m sure that our ideas would be similar, given the available options, but it’s possible he’d go in an entirely different direction. And the second caveat? I’d give Andujar at least one more season to work on his defense. The tools are there, and he’ll be 24 for the entire 2019 season; I don’t think moving several pieces around is a necessity.

That being said, I’m not sure that there’s a great free agent option for the hot corner outside of Machado. As of this morning, these are the top-five non-Machado third basemen that are slated for free agency:

  • Adrian Beltre
  • Josh Donaldson
  • Marwin Gonzalez
  • Jed Lowrie
  • Mike Moustakas

I think Beltre (nearly 40 and may be retiring), Gonzalez (more of a utility player), and Lowrie (nearly 35 and best-suited for second) can be ruled out right away. And I don’t see Moustakas as a clear enough upgrade defensively to make a move. Donaldson is interesting, though. I’m not incredibly enthusiastic about his age or his injuries these last two seasons, but his defense is still strong and he’s a helluva hitter. If the price was right, I think he’s the sort of player that you can make think about moving Andujar for.

Nicholas asks: This may be a little pedantic on my part, but isn’t Kahnle’s problems more due to a lack of separation between his fastball and changeup? Last year he was throwing around 99 with a 90 changeup-this year it looks like his fastball regressed to around 95 but his changeup stayed the same. I think a lack of separation with his changeup is an easier fix than expecting the fastball to return.

The separation between his fastball and change-up actually didn’t change all that much. Check it out:

Kahnle’s velocity was down across the board. The difference between his fastball and change-up was 7.4 MPH in 2017 and 6.7 MPH this year. That’s certainly enough that you can’t just hand-wave it away, but I’m not sure that it’s enough to draw anything conclusive from. What stands out the most for me in terms of his pitches is actually the distribution. In 2017, Kahnle threw 65.6% fastballs, 23.9% change-ups, and 10.5% sliders; those numbers this year were 54.3%, 40.3%, and 5.4%, respectively.

Batters hit .383 (!) with a .660 SLG (!!) against his fastball, so there was definitely something going on. The vertical and horizontal movement on his fastball were virtually unchanged; the spin rate did drop from 2287 RPM to 2223 – but that’s not a massive difference. Putting all of those factors together, though, might lead you to your answer.

Consider this, though: Kahnle’s walk rate doubled in 2018, from 6.6% to 14.0%. He was pitching with a lot of base-runners, and most every pitcher is worse out of the stretch. I think that may’ve been his biggest issue.

(Elsa/Getty)

Scott asks: Hey guys, thanks again for all of your work. The yanks have long since avoided signing players to extensions before free agency (with some exception), but I wanted to get your thoughts on a Torres extension. It might rub players like Judge, Didi, and Sanchez the wrong way, but those guys have different circumstances (Judge is under control until his 30’s, Sanchez underperformed this year, Didi has a replacement in Torres). Most folks believe Torres is a bonafide above average starter at a middle infield position who I believe the yanks have under control for 4 more seasons (maybe 3). Do you think it would be crazy to offer him 6 years at 10mm per? Kingery signed for 6/42, I assume that sets the baseline. Curious as to what you guys think, thanks again.

When Scott Kingery signed his deal, he was a 23-year-old prospect that had never played in the majors; Gleyber Torres is a 21-year-old player coming off of an excellent rookie season. I think that comparison may have worked six months ago, but it doesn’t work that well now. Torres may not be a completely known commodity now, but he’s proven to be – at worst – a solid regular at the highest level.

I think you’d have to look at the deals of players that signed after a strong rookie season; that list includes names like Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun, Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt, Christian Yelich, and Andrelton Simmons. If we average their contracts, we get a baseline of 6.7 years and $42.75 MM. Round that to 7-years and $43 MM, and the Yankees would be crazy to say no – but all of those deals were inked between 2008 and 2015, and prices have gone up.

I don’t think it would be crazy to buy out Torres’s remaining team control years (and tack on some post-team control option years) for something like $10 MM a year. He could fail to improve a lick over the next half-dozen years and he’d still be worth a contract of that nature. I’d be all over it.

Luke asks: How about Eric Kratz having himself an NLDS series for Milwaukee. If we lose to the Sox, what other notable ex-Yankees do we have to root for in the rest of the playoffs?

The championship series have been set at this point, with the Red Sox vs. the Astros in the AL, and the Dodgers vs. the Brewers in the NL. Going team-by-team, we have:

  • Boston – Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Nunez, Steve Pearce (lest we forget his 12 game cameo in 2012)
  • Houston – Brian McCann
  • Los Angeles – Rich Hill (5.1 IP in 2014)
  • Milwaukee – Erik Kratz, Curtis Granderson

Tom asks: What do u prefer and what do you think the yankees prefer of the 3 options for LF: 1. Sign a FA 2. Clint Frazier 3. Stanton becomes regular LFer, Andujar to DH, sign Machado thus solving LF & 3b defense

I think the Yankees would prefer two, or the first portion of three; that is, Stanton becomes the everyday left-fielder. I don’t know if I’m being pragmatic, pessimistic, or just completely out there, but I’m not too sure that they’re planning on making a splash on the position player side of things. Pitching feels like a much bigger priority, given the paucity of in-house options under team control.

And I’m a fan of the Yankees spending money, so I would love to see Machado manning the hot corner next season. That would mean moving Andujar to another position (first base or DH), but I’m fine with that for a player of Machado’s quality. But I also wouldn’t mind the Yankees signing Bryce Harper, sticking with Stanton at DH (or keeping that revolving door going), and giving Andujar more time to figure things out as I said above.

Thoughts looking ahead to the 2018-19 offseason

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(Presswire)

Welcome to Day Two of the offseason. The Yankees were bounced from the postseason two nights ago and now we’re all kinda wondering what happens next. Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman will hold their end-of-season press conferences tomorrow (12pm ET) and those usually bring actual news. This coach is being let go, that guy needs surgery, stuff like that. We’ll see what happens tomorrow. Here are some thoughts as we begin to shift into offseason mode.

1. I expected a flood of “actually, Giancarlo Stanton is bad” takes in the wake of the ALDS and I wasn’t disappointed. They were everywhere yesterday and more are coming. It was as predictable as it gets. Stanton had a crummy series against the Red Sox and that at-bat against Craig Kimbrel two days ago was as bad as any at-bat you’ll see. All he had to do was keep the bat on his shoulder and Kimbrel (probably) would’ve walked him! Instead, he struck out. It was bad. But the idea that the Yankees should trade Stanton is silly. Dude is a great player. His incredibly disappointing wow he’s so bad down season was .266/.343/.509 (127 wRC+) with 38 home runs while playing basically the entire second half on a bad hamstring. Stanton is one of the game’s top power hitters and he’s right smack in the prime of his career, and he’s on a contract that is going to be a great value once Manny Machado and Bryce Harper get paid this winter. I totally get being frustrated after the ALDS. Believe me, I feel the same way. But if you’re basing your opinion of a player on five postseason games rather than his overall body of work, you are far behind the times. Maybe the Yankees can trade Stanton to the Dodgers, sign Harper, and we can all do this again next winter with Bryce.

2. Going forward, I think the Yankees have a clear need for another left-handed bat. The lineup was very imbalanced, especially late in the season after Andrew McCutchen and Luke Voit supplanted Brett Gardner and Greg Bird. The Yankees play in a ballpark that (heavily) favors lefty hitters and they had the ninth fewest plate appearances by left-handed batters during the regular season. That’s not enough. Once Gardner faded, the Yankees came down the stretch with Didi Gregorius and the switch-hitting Aaron Hicks as their only lefty bats of note. Didi and Hicks are great, don’t get me wrong, but two lefty bats ain’t enough. I don’t think it is a coincidence at all the hard-throwing Nathan Eovaldi chewed the Yankees up pretty much every time he faced them this season. Stanton, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, and Miguel Andujar aren’t going anywhere. Or at least I don’t think they are. That’s already five lineup spots. Add in Gregorius and Hicks and the only remaining spots to add a left-handed bat are left field (or DH with Stanton playing left) and first base, barring an unforeseen trade. Harper is the big name out there among left-handed bats. I don’t think the Yankees are going there though. If they spend huge, I think Manny Machado is the more likely target. A more realistic left-handed hitting free agent target may be Michael Brantley, who stayed healthy this season — he missed pretty much the entire 2016 with a pair of shoulder surgeries plus a bunch of time with ankle trouble in 2017 — and hit .309/.364/.468 (128 wRC+) with 17 homers and the second lowest strikeout rate (9.5%) in baseball. I’m not saying the Yankees should go all-in on Brantley. I haven’t dug into the free agent class enough to find personal favorites yet. I’m just saying he’s the kind of quality non-Harper lefty bat the Yankees could target to help balance out the lineup. The stacked righty lineup worked well this year. I think a little more balance is needed going forward.

3. Another need that has to be address this winter: Corner infield defense. It was a major weakness this season. The Yankees told us exactly what they think about Andujar’s glovework when they pulled him for a defensive replacement in the sixth inning (!) in the postseason. And they weren’t wrong to do that! Andujar’s range is limited and his strong arm plays down because his transfer is slow. Defensive Runs Saved data goes back to 2003 and, since then, there have been 493 individual player seasons with at least 500 innings at third base. The bottom of the leaderboard:

489. Mark Teahen, 2005 Royals: -21 DRS
490. Miguel Andujar, 2018 Yankees: -25 DRS
491. Garrett Atkins, 2007 Rockies: -26 DRS
492. Nick Castellanos, 2014 Tigers: -30 DRS
493. Ryan Braun, 2007 Brewers: -32 DRS

Andujar is my dude. I’ve been pumping him up since he was in Single-A ball. But he’s an atrocious defender at third base. Over at first, neither Bird nor Voit are standout glovemen, so for much of the season the Yankees were playing DHs at the two corner infield spots. That’s something that has to be fixed. What do the Yankees do with Andujar? Does moving him to first base, the position involved in the most plays (by far), really limit the damage he does defensively? Or would he be better in the outfield, where he’d be further away from the plate and thus have more time to react to batted balls? Given what I saw this year, I think moving Andujar further away from the plate is the way to go. He’s a good athlete. He runs pretty well and I think he’d be fine in the outfield once he gets enough experience. Plus his arm would go to waste at first base. Andujar’s defensive home is going to be a very hot topic this winter. As for first base, man, I feel like any number of things could happen and none would surprise me. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bird start the 2019 season there. Or Voit. Or Andujar. Or some free agent or trade pickup. Maybe my opinion of what is and what is not good first base defense has been skewed after watching Mark Teixeira all those years. It sure seems to me the Yankees can improve that area though. Ditto (and especially so) third base.

4. I keep seeing articles (like these) and fans on social media saying CC Sabathia may not be back next season and I just don’t buy it. Not at all. Sabathia wants to play next season and he keeps saying he’s willing to sign with another team — to be fair, he keeps saying it because he keeps getting asked about it — because what else is he supposed to say? He has to do whatever he can to maintain negotiating leverage. Sabathia reportedly spoke the Blue Jays and Angels last winter and then he spent the entire summer saying he never really planned to leave on the R2C2 podcast. The Yankees have two starting pitchers in place next season: Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka. That’s it. Sonny Gray is as good as gone and Jordan Montgomery is not due back from Tommy John surgery until midseason. The Yankees need starters and Sabathia is still more than capable of being a fifth starter on a contending team, even at his age and with his knee and with the general inability to take the ball deep into games. Sabathia threw 153 innings with a 3.65 ERA (4.16 FIP) this season and was again among the league leaders in limiting hard contact. He’s averaged 160 innings with a 117 ERA+ the last three seasons. Where are you getting that kind of production on a one-year contract that won’t break your budget with the advanced knowledge the dude is beloved in the clubhouse and won’t wilt in the New York spotlight? Give Sabathia another one-year contract, pencil him in for 140 league average innings next season, and adjust as necessary during the season. I suspect this will play out like last offseason again. The Yankees will focus on more urgent matters early in the offseason, we’ll hear reports that Sabathia is talking to some other teams (Indians? Athletics?), and then he’ll re-sign somewhere around Christmas. How giving him another one-year deal is up for question makes no sense to me. The two sides are a perfect fit for each other.

(Presswire)

5. The Yankees have several notable impending free agents other than Sabathia and, to me, the easiest call among them is re-signing David Robertson. This is a no-brainer. He’s excellent, he’s versatile, he’s postseason and New York battle-tested, and he’s been durable throughout his career. (Robertson and Tyler Clippard are the only pitchers to make at least 60 appearances every season from 2010-18.) A deep and dominant bullpen is a necessity these days, not a luxury, and the Yankees quite clearly place a premium on having as many high strikeout relievers as possible. Even with his 34th birthday coming in April, Robertson fanned 32.2% of the batters he faced this season, and he can slot into any role. The Yankees did let him walk once before so they could replace him with Andrew Miller — there were some draft pick considerations there as well — but I don’t think they should let him walk again. Robertson is too good and too flexible with his role. I’d take five of him in my bullpen if possible. In a perfect world the Yankees would retain him on a two-year deal worth something like $12M per season. That’s better than Brandon Morrow money ($10.5M per season) and a notch below Wade Davis/Aroldis Chapman money ($17M per season). The free agent market was brutal last offseason, but relievers still got paid, and I wonder whether some team will come in and blow Roberson away with a three-year offer. That third year might be a problem for the Yankees. Point is, re-signing Robertson is an easy call to me. This is something I hope the Yankees can get done soon, as in before the start of free agency.

6. Alright, so which regular is going to get moved in a surprise trade this offseason? There seems to be one of those surprise trades every offseason. Last year it was Starlin Castro. There wasn’t one two years ago, but three years ago it was Justin Wilson and John Ryan Murphy. The year before that it was Francisco Cervelli, Shane Greene, and Martin Prado. My guess at this winter’s surprise offseason trade: Chad Green. That is nothing more than a guess. It doesn’t seem to make sense that the Yankees would subtract a very good reliever when they so clearly value having a strong bullpen, but the same applied three years ago, and Wilson was still shipped out. Given his four years of control, the general volatility of bullpen arms, and the fact teams are paying well for quality relievers, I could see the Yankees cashing Green in as a trade chip to replenish the farm system a bit. They could then turn around and spend money to replace him with, uh, Adam Ottavino? Kelvin Herrera? Andrew Miller? I don’t think a position player trade is out of the question. Would the Yankees sign Machado and deal Andujar for pitching? I wouldn’t rule it out. What about trading Hicks one year before free agency with his value as high as it’s going to get? Unlikely, but the entire point here is that these are surprise trades. I think we’ll see another surprise trade (or two!) this winter only because we see a surprise trade most winters now.

7. You can never be sure with these things, but I don’t foresee any changes to the coaching staff this offseason. Maybe bench coach Josh Bard or third base coach Phil Nevin gets a managerial interview and is hired away. Otherwise I don’t see any changes coming. Larry Rothschild is highly regarded within baseball and the Yankees love the way he’s able to blend analytics with hands-on work. I keep seeing “who has he fixed???” as a common criticism which a) is a weird way to evaluate a coach (how’s pitcher whisperer Ray Searage doing these days?), and b) is kinda silly when the Yankees were, once again, one of the best park-adjusted run prevention teams in baseball. Fire Marcus Thames and hire a new hitting coach because OMG their approach? The Yankees are on their fourth hitting coach in the last five years now. How many hitting coaches are we going to cycle through here? Just keep hiring new hitting coaches until the Yankees win the World Series and then give that guy all the credit? Unless someone gets hired away and receives a promotion from another team, I don’t expect any changes to the staff. This was only year one under this group and I don’t believe the Yankees (mostly) overhauled the coaching staff last winter with the intention of making more changes now.

Yankeemetrics: It is high, it is far, it is … see ya 2018

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I want to thank everyone for being such great followers, fans and readers during this unforgettable record-breaking season. Hope you enjoyed all the smart stats, #FunFacts, Obscure Yankeemetrics and other interesting numbers. Let’s Go Yankees.

(Getty)

It’s Just Not Happ-ening
In the first-ever Division Series matchup between 100-win teams, the 108-win Red Sox took the series opener, 5-4.

It was another frustrating and winnable game for the Yankees, who struck out 13 times and left 10 men on base in the one-run loss. This was the ninth time in franchise history the Yankees lost a nine-inning postseason game by a run while stranding at least 10 baserunners — and the first time ever they also struck out more than 10 times in the game.

J.A. Happ, who had been so brilliant against Boston this season (1.99 ERA in four starts) and during his entire career (2.98 ERA in 21 games), was pounded early and pulled in the third inning without recording an out, getting charged with five runs on four hits. He is the first Yankee starter in the postseason to allow at least five runs and while pitching no more than two innings since A.J. Burnett in Game 5 of the 2009 World Series against the Phillies. Before Happ, no other pitcher in franchise history had done that in the opening game of a playoff series.

The Yankee chipped away at their early 5-0 deficit but their rally fell just short as Aaron Judge’s solo homer to lead off the ninth inning was followed by three straight strikeouts to end the game. The home run was a significant one for Judge, his sixth in 15 career postseason games. The only Yankee to hit more dingers in their first 15 playoff games was Bernie Williams (7).

Giancarlo Stanton was part of the strikeout parade in the ninth inning, and finished with four whiffs in the game. A Stantonian #NotFunFact to chew on: He is the only cleanup hitter in franchise history to strike out four or more times in a postseason game.

(AP)

The Kracken Erupts
The Yankees rebounded from Game 1’s bitter loss with a fired-up, fist-pumping win on Saturday night to even the series at 1-1.

They probably couldn’t have been in a better situational spot to steal a game at Fenway, facing David Price, a perennial Yankees punching bag with a historically terrible postseason resume. And both those narratives played out perfectly for the Yankees. Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez both crushed home runs while Andrew McCutchen chipped in with a booming RBI single, before Price got the hook and was booed off the mound in the second inning. The final damage for Mr. Price: 1 2/3 innings, 3 runs, 3 hits, 2 homers, 2 walks, 0 strikeouts.

Price has now made 10 starts in the postseason and his team has lost all 10 of them. That is the longest postseason streak of team games lost in a player’s starts in MLB history.

Okay, back to the Bombers. Judge’s first-inning solo homer was his third in three games this postseason. He is the second Yankee to go deep in each of the team’s first three games to start a postseason, along with Hank Bauer in the 1958 World Series. And he also joined Bernie Williams (2001, 1996), Reggie Jackson (1977) and Bauer as the only Yankee outfielders to homer in three postseason games in a row.

(New York Times)

Sanchez’s dinger off Price was probably the least shocking part of Saturday’s game. His brief history against the lefty speaks for itself:

  • 18 plate appearances
  • 7 hits
  • 6 home runs
  • 4 walks

But Price wasn’t the only Red Sox pitcher that got schooled by Sanchez on Saturday. He pulverized an Eduardo Rodriguez fastball literally out of the ballpark. With a projected distance of 479 feet, it is the longest hit at Fenway since Statcast tracking began in 2015 and the second-longest hit in the postseason at any park over the last four years.

With his two homers, he entered into some purdy good company. He and Yogi Berra (1956 World Series Game 7) are the only Yankee catchers with a multi-homer game in the playoffs. And, at the age of 25 years and 308 days, he is the youngest catcher to homer twice in a game in MLB postseason history.

Masahiro Tanaka bounced back from a couple bad starts to the end the season with another postseason gem, giving up one run — via the #obligatoryhomer — in five innings. He now owns a 1.50 playoff ERA, the fifth-lowest by any pitcher with at least five playoff starts.

Lowest Postseason ERA (min. 5 Starts)
ERA Games
Sandy Koufax 0.95 8
Christy Mathewson 0.97 11
Eddie Plank 1.32 7
Bill Hallahan 1.36 7
Masahiro Tanaka 1.50 5

Nightmare on River Avenue
There really are no words that can capture the utter humiliation, indescribable embarrassment and overwhelming atrocity that was Game 3 in the Bronx on Monday night. Mike did an excellent job summing up the terrible managerial mistakes from the 16-1 loss, I’ll just present here the cold hard ugly facts.

  • 15-run loss is the largest margin of defeat in postseason game in franchise history
  • It is also the most lopsided loss for any team in a postseason game at home
  • 16 runs allowed are the most ever by a Yankee team in a postseason game
  • 16 runs allowed are the most ever in postseason game for any team that gave up no more than one homer
  • Austin Romine is first catcher in MLB history to pitch in a postseason game; the only other position player to do it was Blue Jays infielder Cliff Pennington in the 2015 ALCS Game 5 against the Royals
  • Summing up the pitching mess … Yankees are first team in Major-League history to give up at least 16 runs, 18 hits and eight walks in a postseason game

And mercifully, we close this section with our #NotFunFact of the series, awarded to Luis Severino:

End of the Chase For 28
It’s a game of inches, and the Yankees were just a few short in Tuesday night’s 4-3 loss. Folks, I hope you’re sitting down for this series-ending Obscure Yankeemetric … It was the 14th time the Yankees have been eliminated from the postseason at home, but the first time it happened in a one-run game at the Stadium with the winning run on base when the game ended. Welp.

(Newsday)

For the second straight night, Yankees found themselves in early hole, after CC Sabathia allowed three runs in the first three innings, a rare mediocre outing for him given his postseason track record in the Bronx. This was his eighth playoff start at home as a Yankee, and the first one that he gave up more than two runs. His 1.61 ERA in his previous seven home postseason starts was the second-best by any Yankee (min. 4 starts).

Zach Britton coughed up the fourth run via a 338-foot homer by Christian Vazquez that barely cleared the short porch in right field. It was the first homer Britton has allowed to a No. 9 batter in his career. And, according to ESPN’s home run tracking system, it would not have been a home run at any of the other 29 ballparks. A true ‘Yankee Stadium Special’, served up at the worst possible moment:

In a season where #toomanyhomers was a nightly trend on Yankees twitter, the team failed to go deep in the fateful final two games. The only other time this season the Bombers were homerless in back-to-back games in the Bronx was April 7 and 8 against the Orioles, the fifth and sixth home games of the season. That’s baseball, Suzyn.